Kasimir

Did you- Did you just- Bro it's fine I got this I swear .__. Ilu too .__.

Ok hi I'm back this cycle's over thank you no more Thank you @Wyrmhero your pinch-hitting GM services not needed thank the gods this has been a Night I am ready to deliver rollover.

GM Announcement! Please be reminded that the cycle ends in five standard hours! (That's Singaporean hours, not Galactic standard, for those of you who want to be cheeky.) Get those votes and actions in! There is a slight chance I might not be quite on time to close the cycle due to IRL stuff; if so, I will get an old friend to help me do so. The cycle will begin as soon as I can get it up, it will probably take some finagling but it will be done in as timely a fashion as I can and I'll just edit in the write-up afterwards if I must. Also of your courtesy: Anyone have an idea what is worth eating in the set of <rogan josh, turkish, pizza>? Heading out to get a treat with some buddies and I haven't a clue what to go for. It be my birthday but I'm apparently too tired and overworked to figure things out.

It gives me a good laugh too...now

Apologies for the double-post, I have this queued ready to go just in case. As I expect to have hit my expiry date soon: -I lean more strongly V on Araris than Archer. I don't think the circumstances call for an immediate revision on Archer, but I think it's worth keeping in mind that as our picture of D3 develops, it could really have been a bus that developed from far earlier in the cycle. I'd ultimately consider my V reads on Araris and Alv to be more stable than my V read of Archer. -I want to give JNV a chance. I disliked JNV's post, but my main problem with JNV is that based on their play up to this point, I genuinely didn't read them as Evil until that Archer post, and I've MLed JNV without giving them a chance two games in a row prior to this. I guess what I'm saying is that if someone wants to push JNV the next day, unless there are worries of ties or vote manip, or unless I believe the other trains are just awful, you're going to have to do it without me. I don't really want to ML JNV for a third time in a row this way. A guy's gotta draw the line somewhere. -I am happy potentially revising the Insanity light doc clear. Not sure at this stage. -My functional pool for the next Day would be: <Turtle, Xino>, with a side of Elk and TUN. I am not unsympathetic to the notion it would be odd for two Elims to be active at EoD but note that Stick and Elk were not at cross-purposes the way Elk and Alv were. Given no strong priors between Elk and Alv, it also does make me wonder if Elk's Alv obsession reflects a connection via a third teammate. -With Turtle, I think the case is simply that Turtle is a habitual non-voter, and I think this makes the votes that Turtle does make significant. I think it matters that the one vote Turtle made on Bookwyrm represents a volte face from the previous cycle, and comes as Stick was endangered potentially by a two vote train and then remained stable. That's also a factor that Stick conveniently ignored in her analysis. I don't take Turtle's train analysis to be particularly significant or indicative of V!Turtle because Turtle did that in LG89 as well. I'd also add that I fully can see E!Turtle wanting to D1 V!Illwei. -With Xino, I am hesitant. I don't fully see E!Xino making the weird D1 slip-up. But I think where I am at, fundamentally, is that I don't see E!Xino making the slip-up he did, but I don't know I see V!Xino doing that either. The D2 Elk vote is odd and felt a touch opportunistic but also self-presy, and I don't know what to make of it since Xino was definitely endangered. I don't like how ready Stick was to jump on Xino, but that was so early on D3 I could easily see it being a distancing move. IDK, @Araris Valerian, interested in what you make of it. The real thing about Xino that bugs me is that Xino isn't really present and is clearly disengaged from this game. And I think this fits into a clear pattern of behaviour here where Xino has a greater tendency to detach from a game, partly prompted by RL circumstances, and has a greater motivation to get back into it when Village, not when Evil. I'm going to post this here again: He is inactive both when Village and when Evil, but he predominantly skews inactive when Evil. I do believe a large number of these circumstances are RL-related, but I also think that there's a clear pattern of behaviour here, that is, V!Xino is more motivated to come back, despite RL defeaters, than E!Xino is. I think that significant orange skew there is too large to be dismissed. I point as well to the recent BT3 (not included in this dataset), where E!Xino once again displayed the same pattern of behaviour. Xino is also highly reactive this game, and I think the biggest lesson from [REACTIVITY] is just that Xino is fundamentally less reactive when Village. The parity in reactivity scores only says we can't clear Xino this game, but it's entirely an open question as to which Xino is playing. I lean E!Xino right now. -I sort of feel one of <TUN, JNV> is likely to be Evil, and I lean TUN at this juncture. I don't know if I feel if the entire Elim team votes together: sure, it's possible, but you really commit to this sort of thing if you have the votes, and if they did, we shouldn't have had the seven vote train we did. I don't disagree it's possible Stick saw the Archer votes and decided to get opportunistic, but in that world, we have to look at where the other votes might be. (Worth thinking through, but not with me still groggy and seven minutes to rollover as I type this.) -It does still feel like Stick was ultimately bussed at some point, actively or passively. The votes were close at the time Silho hopped on, and JNV going Archer might have made a fight of it, but then that stopped when Elk and Chantara voted. -Inb4 the entire Elim team exists in the set of people who were sick or otherwise had RL issues. I say this despite also being sick >> -GO GERMANY! That's it from me. See you guys on the other side, or not.

LG82!

1. You slipped up and pasted your GM PM in the thread. All Villagers who saw it, me included, immediately knew you were Village because we had the exact same role. Only Sart saw it on the Elim side. The fact Araris still had me questioning if you were Evil during lylo says a lot >> 2. You spent basically the whole game and lylo paranoiding/tunnelling on me. Which is fair as I was very out of it, drunk, preparing for exams, and playing very badly, but bro you insisted I was Evil even after I flipped Village .__.

Tbf, I think if they've played with me, they're used to it I used to do it in Kas<1>, Kas<2> format, though these days I do long evolving vote tallies instead as I prefer to follow them live. Yet another flimsi on the noticeboard at the Drunk Side: Slightly over eleven hours to the end of the cycle!

I can aggressively E!read you if that makes you feel better, Ookla the Bus Driver :eyes:

Added!

My current ruling is I count the last red vote. I'd prefer you retract for my sanity, but in practice these days, last red is what counts, especially in a pinch. I went to sleep and I see the thread just exploded. My inner Villager is pleased, my inner GM just blinks at the thread and goes 'wha- wha- happened...?' Look, y'all can have a vote count later, but I need a bit of time to get my thoughts straight I literally just woke up but I think this new batch of medications are a tad stronger.

We had a normal game that was all Mistborn. It's called AG6. I set a new pinch-hitting record by getting vigkilled less than twelve hours after I subbed in. Nope, that was MR56. This one was more me half-heartedly trying to solve because I had exams, and Szeth continuing to tunnel on me even after I flipped Village >> You know it was bad when I was actively considering E!Szeth at endgame even though Szeth had pasted his GM PM in thread.

Giving you your GM announcement early because I need to take meds and get sleep - still recovering, unfortunately. This flu hates me. There are twenty seven hours left in the cycle! Get those votes and actions in! A guy gives Bip and Tani Coinshot and Mistborn once and he's destined never to hear the end of it, I see >> If anyone is reading this and would like to pinch-hit, please let me know! I have a player slated for death row if he doesn't show up by EoC, so this is a matter of mild urgency. Thank you, happy shrekking, and hopefully I will recover soon >>

Not sure if Blade is distributed among those I have known who the scanner is for a few Turns now, and quite honestly, am not sure if I think they're Village so YMMV. Edited to add: @Ookla the Paragrapher Edited to add 2: Ninjaed by Archer, so had to c/p. I want to briefly go back over last cycle before doing more vote analysis, but the short of it is that Alv, Araris, and Archer all come out looking fairly Village to me. Let's take a quick look at the votes: I open the cycle fed-up and vote for Xino. Stick quickly seconds it. Archer opens the Stick train. This is two cycles in a row Archer has looked at Stick and created a Stick train - he gets some Village credit for it. Twenty five minutes later, Araris backs him up. He also gets Village credit for this, in my eyes. I start rethinking E!Xino and swap to TUN, and indicate willingness to swap to Stick. Stick is now the lead train, but this is early on. Worth noting Turtle shows up in thread at this juncture, but doesn't really say much except that V!Szeth is interesting, and that V!Szeth might be TMI. Noteworthy in light of Stick's V!Bookwyrm TMI and the fact Turtle doesn't look that way - also noteworthy in light Stick was pushing E!Szeth. Silho shows up and gives a readslist with Stick fairly high up, but also subsequently expresses willingness to vote Stick. Worth thinking about. TUN shows up. Promissary note. Xino shows up. Promissary note but nothing else. I swap off TUN and back to Xino again. And then swap to TUN again. What can I say, it's difficult to decide. TUN subsequently opens the Archer train. That one way or another deserves attention IMO. Cash goes for Elk. Not sure how I feel about this; makes sense from Cash's view, but I wonder if the Elim team was also shopping for a CW at that point. I have Had It and move to Stick. One factor I didn't talk about but alluded to in thread at this point in terms of 'things I can't quite talk about' boiled down to my PM with Alv, our talking out potential Elims, and our worries of vote manip and small margins. And also...the fact that the Gods of Luck and Chance told Alv to go Stick over Xino, and like, this helped him catch E!Stick N1 in LG86 so I was intent on giving that quite a lot of leeway. Even if it is not quite respectable to admit that in thread. FWIW, I'm giving Alv Village credit for that too. He kept me anchored on Stick when I was doubting and overthinking. If a bus happened (as I do suspect is possible), I'm not locating it in Alv, especially since he could have let me doubt or nudged me to Archer or Xino. Silho votes Stick. FWIW, I feel this is a good look: I'm not sure the decision to bus Stick was made at this point in the Elim doc. TUN asks for the reasons for E!Stick. Could be catching up, could be trying to slow-walk. Not sure. The fact TUN asked but didn't engage subsequently inclines me to lean slow-walk is more likely. JNV then votes Archer. I massively dislike this post and this more or less hardlocks me to Stick. I think I simply dislike how opportunistic it seemed: JNV was telling me in our PM previously that they were suspicious of Stick, only to 180 here. Furthermore, the post is framed as an <Archer, Stick> choice, with Elk and Xino not in play at all. JNV's analysis completely ignores Xino, FWIW, and considers Elk as potentially Evil, so why is it <Archer, Stick> only? It felt like bait to try to lure me back off Stick, given my expressed preferences. At this point, Stick self-presses on Archer. Note that this distance is potentially small enough to close with vote manip. Elk votes Xino at 1422hrs. Stick moved at 1341hrs. For this reason, I don't believe that Elk was intending to pack onto Xino with Stick, and anyway that'd look odd. I don't know what to make of Elk's indication of Stick as a suspect but vanity Xino vote with nearly half an hour to go to rollover. For this reason, I'm not quite sure if Elk gets Village credit for voting Stick upon being reminded that what he is doing will potentially generate a tie. But alright, he does answer the call: I don't know how I feel about Stick trying Chantara. That feels kind of out of the blue, and unlikely to work. She needs at least two players to defect from the Stick train to even give her a chance of survival. This doesn't feel quite right, and part of me wonders if this is a choreographed Elim doc distancing thing. Particularly with Chantara actually showing up. Having Stick as neither V nor E just feels a bit safe: too convenient if you show up with E Stick, and you can't explain voting on Stick if you V read her. Of the late Stick votes, I'm happiest with Alv's, as this was signalled/planned from earlier in the PM, with Alv's reasoning being that chasing a tie in this case disrespects the Gods of Luck and Chance since they'd already indicated Stick was naughty in their sight. Stick swaps back to Archer. This doesn't count because it's late, but whatevs, can give her that. My thoughts: -Archer seems to be the favoured CW to Stick. Village points for that, as well as bringing Stick up in previous cycles. -Village points to Araris for seconding without hesitation. -Some Village points to Silho (but not too many) for kicking the train into gear. It felt a bit too early for a bus, and at this time of writing, Silho's last login time to the Shard was 6 hours ago. He also made that last post voting Stick 6 hours ago. E!Silho probably doesn't just leave that train slightly dominant and go sleep. -Very light Village points to Insanity for mentioning a doc -I'd like this to be exculpatory for Elk, but am not sure it really is. More on that later. -Village points to Alv for talking me into staying put and reminding me of train margins. I suppose it's worth my mentioning the other thing I couldn't talk about was my awareness that one of the Honorblades with the ability to manipulate votes might have been in play this cycle, and I wasn't sure it wasn't in hostile hands, which was why I was so focused on talking margins with Alv. In the world where the bearer is Evil, then yeah I would suppose that this was definitely a bus because we didn't see vote manip getting used. No further comments on this score. -The main reason I am not sure it is exculpatory for Elk is Stick's mentioning Elk early, then defecting from that train D2. I do think it is plausible that Elk is the bus point. You could argue that Elk focusing on Xino rather than Stick is a good look, but I am not really sure I completely feel that. Need a D2 relook (on to that in a bit.) -I am sorry to say this, but Tukari points to JNV for that post that I just negatively reacted to. Yeah, sorry, no two ways about that. I also strongly believe that in a world where Araris and Alv are both looking Village, Mat is low-efforting, and I'm active, there's only one reasonable explanation for the fact I still live, and that's E!JNV. I also noted (even in my notes!) that there's a JNV-sized blindspot in Stick's analysis of the D2 votes and I believe the best explanation is Stick overlooking a teammate. Mapping those reads back into the votes for D1 and D2: Day One: Day Two: Analysis: I think we can get a better look at train dispersion now with some of the likely alignments: Day One A: Day One A takes place prior to the tie-chasing. Day One B: Day One B takes place after the rabid tie-chasing, at EoD. On the assumption we find no more than two Elims on a train, at most one more of <Xino, Tani, Elk> is Evil. TUN is likely Evil, and Turtle does look pretty Evil. I do think JNV is Evil. I am currently leaning E!Xino and maybe E!TUN - explains Stick's willingness to move off the Szeth train. Day Two: The reason I don't mention E!Cash is I think Turtle's move to Bookwyrm looks worse than Cash's. The dgaf parking from Cash today also inclines me to think V!Cash, I suppose because it just feels like it takes guts to sit out a bus when one is clearly happening. Not sure. I also don't expect three Elims on the Bookwyrm train. Two is quite enough. TUN and Stick once again nearly resting on the same train does make me wonder if they are Evil together. Day Three: Attempted EoD: I'd probably go JNV next, and potentially Turtle. Not sure about Xino, but Xino's disengagement from this game continues to make me hesitate on V!reading him. It's the two nickels thing - when Xino's disengaged, he may still be Village but when he's Evil, he's disengaged. Edited to add #3: I'm fundamentally extremely unfond of the assumption the scanner has to be Village just because Shalash flipped Evil. This is the sort of assumption that feels like Beaglegate begging to happen, and I'm the guy who is still on V!Chana but paranoiding about E!Chana. Target scanner with Stormlight limitations in a V!Chana world with Shaman feels a bit weaker, and starting E!Jez just fundamentally makes it a troll distro. Sometimes troll distros happen. Sometimes the GM gives the Elim team a Smoker even though they also have the only Seeker. FWIW, Jez targeted TUN N1 and Silho N2. No results in both cases.

@Alvron You knew this was coming. Sacred Coin, please accept this offering. Happy to go V!Araris, V!Archer off of this. Not sure about Chantara, could be last minute distancing, could be not, let's take a look later.

I'll say this: I was probably hard-considering how much I bought V!Stick and maybe V!Archer, but JNV's post really struck me the wrong way. I do know JNV was suspicious of Stick until just about now, apparently, and I dislike the fact that the post is framed as a <Stick, Archer> choice despite also including Elk formally in PoE. My response to that post at this point is: I don't really know about Stick, I don't want a tie given potential vote manip, but if JNV wants Archer dead and is protective of Stick, I'm getting on the other train, simpliciter.

Bro. Just for the record, this almost certainly guarantees a tie: Alv hasn't voted yet, there are three vote manip trains, and the current trains are 3-4. I respect not feeling certain, but just to make it clear: you want a tie? Edited to add: Vote manip Blades, my bad.

You...don't have any prior to Shining having shown up with that post? Edited to add: @_Stick_ Nvm found your post with Mat sorry. Interesting I'm still alive if so. Would likely point to an E!JNV world but feel we're kinda at the point where the Village split is this clear. Edited to add 2: You know what is throwing me off. 1. I read EoD D1 Stick as Village. 2. I cannot read JNV's post that I responded to as anything but E in light of hardjumping onto Archer instead of Elk and I say this despite also being suspicious of Archer and I don't know what the bloody fricking hells is wrong with me.

Can you give me three players you currently read as Village, without qualification? I'm backreading your Elim games right now: I agree that killing Illwei and Mat doesn't seem like your MO, but I only am more willing to accept V!Stick with your later part of D3. D1 to early D3 don't look that great to me. You're not wrong about softwalking V reads so the fact you have a strong V read on Bookwyrm is telling, but I notice as well that you have a dearth of unqualified V reads, which is exactly (as you pointed out, ironically) also the case for V you. I would also argue that E you tends to softwalk V reads but does particularly does the V reads when you feel the player can't not be read as Village.

No, because Xino absolutely did that in LG86 and Fifth and I were screaming over where the vote we missed was, after which I proceeded to place very big reminders we don't accept votes in spoiler/quote-boxes Yeah I'm reading LG86 now, what gives? A freshly-scribbled flimsi on the notice board at the Drunk Side:

Are you playing sabaac or pazaak, good sir :eyes: There's one version of sabaac that's kind of cool because the cards shift depending so you can be playing with a different hand when the field kicks in. Presumably holo-cards. Of course, there's always a good old game of dejarik...

Yeah you know what I'm good with Stick. Sorry @Alvron I never should've doubted the gods of luck and chance.

K. Short version on my part is that it's vote profiling, sort of down to who I read V on the D1 Wiz train (<Xino, Tani, Stick, Elk, Szeth>), and predicated on the D2 Elk push and her final train. Partly because I didn't like how polarised Stick and Araris were when Bookwyrm was anything but polarising - most people had a meh I guess on Bookwyrm and were largely apathetic. And I have a better read on Araris despite completely disagreeing with his worldview so oy vey. I agree that the D2 Elk push sort of reads like E!Stick to me in terms of how she engages, and I am vaguely leaning towards Elk being the favoured ML. I don't disagree that Illwei and Mat were both suspicious of Stick, so they could be suspicion kills, but I also don't see Stick as being particularly susceptible to NKing Illwei or not doing so - I think Stick's killing MO as indicated in previous docs (cf. LG86, LG89) is she actually tends to kill her strongest/stronger Village reads, and she dislikes killing people who are suspicious of her, so Mat would not be a good Stick kill either. It's not impossible, but it's...yeah. If you're asking why I literally just voted Stick a couple hours ago despite also being very loudly unhappy about it, I'd ragequit and decided to just throw in with Archer and Araris despite suspecting them to hell and back. Also because of one or two other factors I incidentally know about but can't mention in the thread at this stage. I've decided to go back and re-read and vote with my heart because ragequitting is unworthy and if I die tonight, I want to die having voted for who I sincerely believe is Evil. Even if I'm wrong, this way, I can look the dead doc in the eye. I am currently in the middle of a five game Stick re-read but my immediate gut impulse is I don't think Stick is Evil. Between <Archer, Elk, Xino>, I am sort of actually low key tempted to vote Archer, one thing about Xino makes no sense to me, and I feel I would prefer to stick with my view that E!Elk doesn't have a reason to resist Bookwyrm this strongly. Yeah :/ I just gotta go with what I believe, I think. I know, Gods of luck and chance, but I think it is important to me and to my sense of integrity as a Villager to just do the work. Even if I am wrong, I am wrong. At least I did my best and will have no regrets. Edited to add: @Ookla the Unknown - Immediate willingness to go Xino also struck me as being a bit off I guess.

Uhhhhhh. Bruh. I am actually considering if I want to go off Stick and onto the Xino or Archer trains so I would advise not sheeping me. I am currently in the middle of a five game re-read consisting of four E!Stick games and one V!Stick game to make up my mind if this is plausible for E!Stick. As much as I want to (myself) just sheep the Araris/Archer bloc, I really should do better and I can't face the dead doc with grace if I don't at least make one more try to see if I am on board with E!Stick or not.

Yeah. As a matter of policy, I don't accept votes or retractions in spoilers because players will often use them for notes and that makes sifting through them a pain.