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Kasimir

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  1. Kasimir
    Ninjaed by Stick so I'm posting here: I want to at least partially redo the trains with the new flips: D1: We know there's high Elim involvement on D1. To recap, only <Silho, Turtle, Bookwyrm> didn't vote, and Bookwyrm flipped Village. This more or less entails that the Elims have to be in the blacks. Ngl if I take my current credences, then the Elims have to be in <Insanity, Silho, Turtle, Chantara, Archer, TUN, Xino, Tani.> I don't know if that makes for a coherent team. I'm going to have to do more thinking. <Stick, Alv, Araris, JNV> as potential additions I guess, but I don't know. That doesn't feel very right to me. D2: IMO, Mat as the last voter late on the Bookwyrm train with low activity and Elk checking in seems to indicate to me that the Elims did not seriously feel a member was under threat. The closest candidate there is Elk, given that Elk was fairly close. I do wonder if this points to V!Xino insofar as that if Mat had joined on Xino instead, Xino could plausibly be endangered by Alv and late vote manip. Maybe that's reason to go elsewhere. Much lower voter participation continues to point to Elim confidence in my view. Xino's vote on Elk could be taken as protective of Xino himself, or protective of Araris: I would at least flip Xino first. Xino's willingness to potentially endanger Elk at a close margin indicates Xino/Elk not E/E, which I shouldn't have had to say, but in light of their D1, matters. This is the vc at the time of Xino's vote: So we know Szeth is Village: self-pres is certainly possible, with Xino declining to self-pres on Bookwyrm despite having him as a sus the previous day. Slightly agreed with Stick that without knowing progression, that vote looks more sneaky than anything and feels sus to me. Could theoretically be Xino also protecting Araris, but again, since Xino's movement is weird and Araris has a better D1, I'd rather flip Xino. Yeah, except that his D1 voting is really good. Again, sure, it's possible, but is it plausible? Araris was exceptionally willing to make a lethal tie-breaking vote late on Bookwyrm in the cycle. I disagree hopping on the Elk train would've been less suspicious - in light of criticism, it just looks really opportunistic, since Araris wasn't even mentioning suspicion of Elk anyway. Sure, but I think it's worth asking how your reads fit together into a coherent team. If they don't, then you should go with the one that carries the most weight. That's fine, my reasons to think V!Elk also come from D1.
  2. Kasimir
    It's no on Elk or Araris for me. Asterisked no for both, but their D1 voting patterns do not look Evil to me. Both of them willing to kill Bookwyrm, a notably bad train, prior to Alv's intervention. It's not indefeasible, but I prefer to look at players I lack any reason to think are Village at all at this juncture. Edited to add: This just seems like a hinky comment to me and it raises my hackles. Araris voted Bookwyrm, then Bookwyrm voted Elk. Elk wasn't seriously in danger at that point. You can argue he deserves suspicion as a Bookwyrm train voter and I don't disagree, but in light of a good D1 vote, I'd prefer to be suspicious of others on the train. The order of priority is utterly wrong to theorise that Araris was voting in a manner protective of Elk, especially when it was in the early hours of the cycle. Two other comments. I reserve full vote analysis for later, when I'm not gaming with Orlok and Wyrm. Elk train at this juncture was pure. Makes you think. Elk was still not in danger, and the fact that Turtle and Cash pile onto Bookwyrm IMO should seem suspicious: Turtle votes Bookwyrm at a point when you, Elk, and Bookwyrm are tied, booting Bookwyrm to lead train. Cash then goes onto Bookwyrm shortly after, stacking the train further. It's a slightly good look for Cash, foiled by the lack of knowledge as to his experience levels, i.e. if he's an internal Bookwyrm, then this isn't exculpatory. Elk is not in danger. Then Xino comes and places a vote on Elk. IMO if you believe your Araris/Elk E/E theory, then you pretty much have to look at <Turtle, Cash> and probably lean a bit V on Xino for actually turning the Elk train into a three vote train. This is a very close margin if Xino and Elk were paired, given that Alv could have turned it into a tie. But I don't want to hinge too much on this as Elk was lurking in thread close to EoD, meaning he could've self-presed but saw no need to. Still, I think it's worth highlighting. Your theories don't make coherent sense with where your suspicions are. I'm tentatively ok with V!Elk and V!Araris right now, which is why Xino's late Elk vote shows up as sus.
  3. Kasimir
    >> Why >>
  4. Kasimir
    Wonderful. Look. I've had a few bad showings over the last few games, that's true. Part of me really wants to scream in frustration because I bloody swear I've been saying until I'm blue in the face that I think these guys are Villagers. And I get my track record doesn't inspire confidence because I screwed the Village over in QF63. BUT FOR FFS FORFECKSBLOODYSAKE Can we stop screwing around now??? Can we? Please? I s2g I am this done questioning myself. Edited to add: Xino
  5. Kasimir
    I have less time since I started GMing Docs to arrange, spreadsheets to neaten up, homework to do... But I wanted to respond to Archer's point which is that similar to Bookwyrm, I'm not feeling it but don't feel confident enough to push it. Still fixed on Xino, also looking at Insanity. Very, very tentative and mild V on TUN for now. Am aware there's probably a talky Elim I'm missing but personally feel that we might be able to domino if we flip one Elim and buy V!Blades the time to use their actions wisely. My lead suspects would be Xino and Chantara the next day. Edited to add: For me, where I'm feeling Xino and Chantara comes down to peripherality in voting, and the sense they were fairly disengaged from the results. Which is theoretically true of most with regard to Bookwyrm, but even then, they made their votes. I do agree it's not really clear where Xino's suspicions are going, and while RL factors can confound, I especially take E!Xino to be more fundamentally disengaged in play than V!Xino (cf. LG90's Xino games study.) You could argue the way Xino hopped on and off the trains really fast, followed by Elk, was suspicious, but Elk has the benefit of having made the very last minute swap. (Which, again, could be Elim showboating, but I partly ascribe a very, very defeasible Village point to. I think this absolutely should be revised if necessary, but feel that Elk had been prepared to be the lethal vote on Bookwyrm before Alv, which is in my view a light positive. That vote simply would not have looked good, even had Elk been ready to fight it off.) So that really just leaves Xino in the crosshairs for me. Similar low engagement issue for Chantara, disagree with Archer that the response feels good. Edited to add 2: FWIW if I die please send thoughts and prayers for Germany v. Spain which I will watch guilt-free <3 Die Mannschaft!
  6. Kasimir
    My mild V read on Szeth hinges on Szeth's D1 vote on Wiz. I don't find it plausible that E!Szeth sheeps me into a fifth vote on Wiz: an Elim should be aware that's suicidal, no matter what, and looks far too suspicious. He'd already poke voted TUN anyway and theoretically had no reason to need to make another vote. E!Szeth also is more meta-aware when writing posts, he just has a tendency to think that he can get away with meta-screwing. I also do think Szeth's team was a bit too chill at EoD, given the likelihood Szeth was part of a tie and the fact that for all they know, Village vote manip was online. There are several defeaters for my thoughts: -You could argue Szeth is that sort of player who could just be careless and make that vote. I would agree, but I think that sort of carelessness is more likely from V!Szeth than E!Szeth. Szeth has that bit more experience than Bookwyrm to be counted on to realise the badness of that vote, and Elim docs tend to track votecounts more, so Szeth should've had access to that. Even in Szeth's first Elim game (QF54 - on a you/Araris team), Szeth was a bit more careful when making posts: I'm not sure this is the kind of thing that not playing SE for a while erodes. Those highlighted last lines do indicate Szeth has a tendency to metascrew, but I think AG8 should have shown that doesn't work very well; I will still take it as a partial defeater though. -You could argue that QF54 and AG8 shows that E!Szeth has a tendency to just do suspicious things first and ask the doc later. (cf. E!Szeth making a genuinely suspicious PM response to V!Meerkat in a PM which started a chain of dominoes.) I do think later!E!Szeth has shown more tendency to solicit advice, especially not when under pressure. That being said, I'd accept that; I just intuitively think the badness of the fifth vote should have overridden even Szeth's impulses. and -YMMV. I think the bottom line from this is that I lean mild V on Szeth and wouldn't go after him, but don't feel the confidence in defending this due to the defeaters and especially Szeth's tendency to miscalculate when metascrewing.
  7. Kasimir
    I mean, if you're Village and you know you're Village, that's at least one cycle that's going to lead nowhere... More generally, not a fan of Cash's plan in that I'm never a fan of pre-deciding a lynch. It just tells the Elims what they get to do the next Day and lets them slack off in thread. Our jobs are to make it as difficult and annoying for them to blend in as possible. Also, it helps that I suspect Xino more
  8. Kasimir
    Hi all! As stated, rule clarifications will be shared in the thread, and then updated into that collection box in the second post at every cycle. For now, these are your rule clarifications: Jedi Knights are not included in the Apprentice doc. It's called student-teacher privacy, y'all >> PMs are closed. That means you can't open PMs that are not your GM PM for the duration of this game. I know, it's odd, given I'm the GM, but what can I say. Remember, your comms infrastructure just got attacked :eyes: Why would your comlinks work?
  9. Kasimir
    That's not hard evidence. That's speculation. High certainty, but where's your hard evidence for who it is on the train? I'm not trying to be nit-picky here: I don't really E!read you for reasons I've laid out, but I don't think it's constructive to talk about hard evidence in the absence of a Seeker scan, and that's the sort of certainty we don't get in this game. So much more people didn't vote on D2 that it's harder to ID whether the Bookwyrm train was really all Elim or not. The fact it had five voters makes that quite likely but not guaranteed. D1 is probably an easier bet to read the votes from, due to the fact almost everyone voted. The main reason I regard the D2 Bookwyrm train is helpful is just really in light of what movements look more suspicious and what the D1 train(s) tell us. That's still not hard evidence. A lot of singling out who the Elim on the train might be is going to come down to things like trying to work out what 'could be' an Elim tell because people will reveal their alignment in every interaction. I feel some players like Alv are harder to read, but it's there if you know what to look for.
  10. Kasimir
    Where do we get hard evidence from on N2?
  11. Kasimir
    Listen. I'm comfortable for now with my V!read on you. I'm not interested in rethinking it. If more weird crem goes down, sure. But I kinda expect to be too dead to care by that point so you'll be someone else's problem
  12. Kasimir
    Fair. I sort of misread your initial comment, no thanks to the clause This makes sense to me, yeah. But either way, I'm still sold on V!Mat for now - his D2 has been less reassuring to me but I don't see E!Mat committing to brawl that hard with me for no functional reason. I'm worried about E!Xino, but believe we can cross that bridge later on - he's definitely my lead suspect, but I have others. Thank you >>
  13. Kasimir
    Rule Clarifications: Player List:
  14. Kasimir
    Cycle One: Communications Breakdown The fallen Jedi had left a trail of destruction in his wake. The bisected halves of the counter were still smoking. Barles was staring at it, his eyes haunted. Fought in the wars, Barles had. Sajhe remembered, he’d said it a couple of times. Time was, the Jedi’d fought, too. Maybe that was what Barles remembered, even now, even after the Empire had tried to cast down the Order, the Temple on Coruscant, to grind the memories of the Jedi into the dust. Sajhe remembered too, for all they said he was too young. Too young to have fought in the wars. Too young to spend his life in the quiet contemplation of the dust in Dreshdae. Sajhe poured drinks, cracked a cold Corellian ale for some of the regulars who looked like their nerves needed steadying. The Drunk Side swirled with tension, fear, and anxiety. You didn’t live in Dreshdae, in the shadow of the Valley of the Dark Lords, in the shadow of the Sith long dead without learning to fear those who sought mastery. Moff at least had rolled under the table, and Sajhe supposed he was drunk, as usual. Nothing seemed to faze Moff. Or if anything did, it would take more than an incursion of fallen Jedi, pretenders to the legacy of the Sith, to do it. He frowned to himself. Pretenders were, perhaps, the most dangerous of all, apt to wander too far into the shadows, awakening things best forgotten. “Sithspit,” muttered Jev, nervously. There was something about Jev, something in the way they seemed to start at every shadow, but Sajhe didn’t know what it was. Hiding from something, perhaps. Or running away. Sajhe knew a lot about running away. “A karking Sith,” agreed Ullen Kos, his eyes just a little wild. He clenched the mug of Corellian ale in his white-knuckled hands, as though it was his source of strength, and cursed in spacer’s Huttese. “Well, someone’s got to do something about it,” Barles said. “Can’t have one of those going through Dreshdae.” “Someone’s got to go to the comms array,” said Loren Vash. “Put out the call to the New Republic, maybe get them to call for Jedi assistance. Ain’t anything good, when there’s a fallen Jedi here, of all places.” She thumped the table with her scarred knuckles, grimly. “Could try the Valiant,” offered a Rodian in a worn flight suit, sitting all by himself. “I serve on the Valiant, and this is a hell of a time to take shore leave, let me tell you. But if you can comm the Valiant, she can send a distress signal to practically anywhere, maybe even Coruscant and Yavin 4. You’ll get your Jedi in no time.” “Smarts!” Sajhe called out, as he noticed the droid technician sitting by himself at a table, working on a disassembled probe droid. He had to call again to get the technician’s attention. Too lost in his work, as it turned out. “Listen, think you can head over to the spaceport and make that call?” “What call?” Smarts asked. Sajhe sighed. Technicians. “There’s trouble here. Trouble with some of those fallen Jedi. We think it can’t mean anything good. Word needs to go to the Valiant, probably pass it on to Coruscant. They’ll let the Jedi know, or anyone else as needs to.” Smarts nodded, confidently. “Shouldn’t take long,” he said. Because the Force had a sense of irony, Smarts was just out the door when he ran back into the cantina, with Turtle on his heels. “Smarts?” Sajhe asked, uncertain. Turtle was the one who spoke. “The comms relay was sabotaged. Someone planted a comms spike in it.” “Is there a back-up?” Turtle shook his head. “Dreshdae’s too small. There’s the comms relay at the spaceport, and the nearest relay from there is in the next sector. We’re cut off.” “A communications disruption can only mean one thing.” Sajhe looked over at Tantyck, who met his eyes. Tantyck was always careful with his words, measuring them out as though they would one day be used against him. Rumours abounded in his wake: that Tantyck was a defector, that he was ISB, that he’d a knack for survival… Sajhe could see that last one. “Yeah?” Tantyck nursed his drink. “This settlement is under attack,” he said, simply. The cycle has begun and will end on Tuesday, 29th November 2022 at 0100hrs SGT (GMT+8)! All role PMs should be sent by now. Please alert me if you have not received your role PMs. Please be reminded that PMs are closed. P.S. For players who haven't been GMed by me before, please don't post until I've reserved the second post in this thread for the player list and rule clarifications. Thank you! Please be reminded that if you have changed your name to an Ookla name, I will require that you either keep the same profile picture, or change your member title to your former username. I will also require that you place votes using either the player's regular name or their RP name, for my sanity. Thank you.
  15. Kasimir
    Sign-ups are closed. Please give me about half an hour to sort PMs and get the cycle up - it turns out that if this is your first time GMing right as everyone Ooklaifies... Hoo boy. K I'm gonna need a while but this will happen. Be patient, and may the Force be with all of you.
  16. Kasimir
    In what sense?
  17. Kasimir
    Apologies in advance for the double post. There's a decent chance that someone else will have posted by the time I'm done with this, but if this isn't true, then RIP. This post is too long for me to feel alright with editing it in my previous one. Day One: Day Two: Analysis: Putting D1 and D2 together, we want to look and identify where our likely Elims might be. To do this, I'm going to do the crude method of ruling out anyone who I have even some reason to think is Village: D1: <Archer, Silho, Turtle, Insanity, Cash, Chantara> are in the pool for vote stability and raw dgaf energy. <Elk, Stick, Alv> are ruled out for the EoD dance: it's technically NAI for Alv, and he's in the grey zone for me, but instinct tells me it doesn't make too much sense for E!Alv. Stick risks looking bad for forcing the Wiz vote through, while Elk technically has no reason to care. (I do still suspect Elk, so maybe asterisk him. My strategy right now is to rule out anyone I have even some reason to think is Village after all!) Looking at this again, I am not sure the Wiz or Bookwyrm trains are pure. The Wiz train is most unlikely to be pure, just out of sheer weight of numbers. Of <Xino, Tani, Szeth, Alv, Elk, Stick> - I think Elk and Stick can be temporarily subtracted for EoD. I still sort of want to V!read Alv, and I feel that Szeth's mid-Day vote makes no real sense for E!Szeth. So this narrows my suspect pool down to <Xino, Tani> - I'd probably favour Xino first. The Bookwyrm train might not be pure either, but I have difficulty reconciling Araris's vote with V!Araris, and kind of want to V!read Alv and JNV, so this leaves me in trouble. If the train is pure, then I don't really have a working Elim team composition I can think of if I am going with V!Archer and V!Mat as well. Anyway that's a side-issue for now. D2: <Elk, Silho, Chantara, Alv, Tani.> Again, raw dgaf energy. Especially since Elk lurked and then left. Xino's late vote on Elk doesn't make me feel that great. I am also not sure I buy the Bookwyrm train is pure, and of everyone on that train, I find Turtle the most suspect. Cash placed a potentially incriminating vote so I guess maybe that gives Cash a tiny bit of credit. Archer and Mat hopping in lockstep is odd, and I am not sure how I feel about that. Dislike Insanity's sheep - understand Insanity may be new, but in light of the D1 vote, feel more than a little uncomfortable with this. I was tempted to claim an Ookla name but I am GMing...
  18. Kasimir
    Gravitation is a target scan. It's the one that can potentially catch the NK in action. Only Jez has this. It's a watered down scanner, but I'd consider it more important than the Shaman. Blade holders can be identified by Transformation, of which there are two Blades. Shalash and Battar. Unlike the Shaman, the Blade holders get to know exactly what Blades you carry. I don't think it is but I definitely think he should face pressure. Off the top of my head, same for Cash, Chantara, Silho - lots of Elim dgaf energy off those votes. Going to go back and redo the vote train analysis with the Bookwyrm data. Edited to add: Tbh, Turtle not voting too.
  19. Kasimir
    >> Araris
  20. Kasimir
    Tbh, US could've won that, you guys put up a great showing and had a better first half in my view. Tbf, winning the group is nice but you at least want to advance to knock-outs. A victory over Iran would do nicely for that.
  21. Kasimir
    Do you feel relieved that the EoD is so quiet? No more last minute votes to track? I don't feel good about this, but it's out of my hands now so there's a small comfort in that. Now, Germany v. Spain on Monday morning...
  22. Kasimir
    Bros it is nearly 2PM .__. I've had sleep, I'm just getting ready for more World Cup and Age with Wyrm.
  23. Kasimir
    I am sorry. I have quickly relooked QF63 and LG90, scanning Bookwyrm's posts. I cannot make myself feel alright with that train. I can't get over the fact that V!Bookwyrm is more awkward, that E!Bookwyrm writes more loosely. Compare: E!Bookwyrm: with: V!Bookwyrm And even now I doubt because p1 D2 Bookwyrm honestly isn't anywhere near as meticulous as V!Bookwyrm, but I kind of feel like E!Bookwyrm should've put in much more of a standard effort, since it's very clear he's capable of that. So whatever. I don't know anything anymore. Welcome to SE where the gut is wild and the reads don't matter - that's right Kas, your reads are like points on Whose Line Is It Anyway, they don't really matter because you're probably tripping af rn. I don't care if Alv and Stick want to force a tie at this point. I don't care if that leads to a bad result. That's on both of you, not on me. I am not responsible for the whole Village. It's time I acted like it. I feel Araris should be more sensitive to this and I can't make myself feel good about his vote, but I also am not certain if I can make myself feel good about lynching Araris in absentia, knowing how often this happens to him. So I'm sticking with Xino. Your move, Mat. I'm fine with my decision.
  24. Kasimir
    I would say I'm willing if you are because it has to be done together but the truth is that if I commit to doing so, I'd have to override the nagging feeling that this train is just very wrong. I still currently read you Village at least so on my part, I am not so concerned that you are trying to talk me into saving your teammate. Anything else is a you problem, not a me problem, and thank goodness for that, I have enough problems.
  25. Kasimir
    Is it just me or does Deadwei hovering at the bottom of the thread feel like she's judging our reads and choices rn .__. Edited to add: Ngl if you want to solidify I think it takes both of us. If Stick gets on and I recall she did D1 EoD, Stick+Alv will force another tie. The problem is that I can't convince myself that this train doesn't just feel wrong. Even if there's the threat of a tie and redoing Bookwyrm.
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