Kasimir

If I'm not willing to consider E!Hael or E!Stick at this stage, he's one player I'd consider sharp enough to make a snipe, functionally. The problem as you point out is that if we are running with the snipe hypothesis, we need someone who knows JNV, Wiz, and Devo enough to make those calls. 2/3 accuracy isn't shabby. Agreed with Stick it'd be loltastic if it were random but I'm not sure that's what I'd work with right now. My pool of players IMO who could have made that shot, ignoring credences, would be: <Devo, Fifth, you, Xino, Stick, Hael, TUN, Mat, me> Bookwyrm, I think, hasn't been around enough still. Obviously: Subtract Devo and Fifth, they're dead Village. <you, Xino, Stick, Hael, TUN, Mat, me> Subtract you. <Xino, Stick, Hael, TUN, Mat, me> If we are ignoring bus worlds for now, we subtract Stick, Hael, me. N.B. I've italicised me because yes and no - I'd probably have a smooth time deanonymising IC, IDK about my accuracy if we look at the thread. <Xino, TUN, Mat> I read Mat V still. <Xino, TUN> ? That's what I'm left with, as options. Edited to add: I like that you pick up on that but not on voting someone you think is Village to prove yourself Village

@Amanuensis BRO YOU PLAYED AG2 :sob: Ok ok Eight Smokers, one Smoker Evil, Hael the Seeker nicotine sniffer Elim team was all new players except Lopen, Lopen was newish and I sort of want to say on two games, maybe. Either way he was not considered an Elim powerhouse at that point in time. The Villagers kept on sniping at each other because at least one regular veteran had to be Evil amirite Tbf Hellscythe wasn't being helpful either, but we'll leave that aside. The point is that we self-cannibalised in extreme ways and the new player team won. But. I note that a major point against it is that Meta noted the distro was volatile and he had concerns it was a bad gamble before the self-cannibalisation began...I want to say D2? late D1? Also I note when I say AG2 here I'm not specifically thinking it's all new players - I'm thinking in terms of the "at least one active thread player has to be Evil" assumption. So IDK, maybe LG73 is a better analogy (quiet team including Flyingbooks, Lotus, TUN, Devo, Connie, with Devo as the sole anchor but also Devo was not in loud thread mode that game.) But LG73 ended well for the Village so maybe that's why I remember the pain of AG2 self-cannibalisation more.

Fair point. I'd almost argue that's a point against E!Hael as the silent partner, in that world. I don't believe Hael is that much of a frequent player to make a note of it. He came back for MR61, but before that, he played LG83 and the AG. He was also really out of it in LG83. I guess the only way I'd see Hael as the sniper is if (excluding JNV) they gave off some sort of some sort of tells in their posts but TBH I feel like chasing for IC signs is a waste of my time - I'd much rather backread the other posts. Also, edited my TUN thoughts in previous post to add to what you said.

This being the pool you mentioned? I think that's the crossroads I'm at: do I double down on my V!reads of Stick, Mat, Hael and assume an AG2 set-up? Or do I go back and start re-evaluating and maybe considering I'm wrong within the quiet pool? Edited to add: @Amanuensis - Not sure I'd final vote TUN but I usually don't final vote this early into the cycle. One point I would bring up is that V!TUN usually ramps up into the game. I'm seeing a lot of thread checking and a lot of silence, which I'm not necessarily comfortable with. The comparison I have in mind is QF62 or even MR57/LG89 which was something that pinged me about him in LG90. The blunt way of putting it is that V!TUN shouldn't have this little presence or be this much of a negative space in my head, and I'm a bit wary I don't recall him existing when looking at my suspect pool. The other counterpoint (which is fair) is that this kind of happened in LG91 as well so I need to recheck how active he got after I died as that's the point I stopped paying close attention to the thread.

Looking at the thread. It's an old trick, dunno how much it's done in new SE but Hael reminded me of it when he was talking about my MR. Open SE in an incognito window so you can keep an eye on the thread without having to sign in. I think my point is that we are taking thread activity as a sign of attention to the game but it's possible to be a lower lying Elim than that. #LG5Khas

I don't disagree with this - I'm just wary of apathy clears after Dingo I guess. And it couples with my thoughts that if I stick to my current V!reads, and the possibility we are barking up the wrong tree, then I'm sort of just D1ing where we haven't yet gone to try to see what happens. Sort of a function of where I'm more willing to revise immediately I think: I still struggle with Stick, sort of can see E!Hael but it doesn't really quite feel right to me. It....does work better if I don't say it, yeah, but oh well

I feel like you can do that incognito, or not signed in. He'd committed not to voting, though. I'm minded of how E!you feels you can't break out of your commitments, to the point of making that Bookwyrm vote. And And my other thought is: Look. Suppose the thought isn't a snipe. Suppose the kill thought is: we're all barking up the wrong tree. Where have we been looking? Aman, Fifth, Mat, Xino, Nerdy. I still V!read you, I still V!read Hael. The logical answer to me is to apply pressure anywhere not within those five and see what shakes out.

K someone mentioned the Devo point, IDK who. The thing is, I do wonder - Devo clearly suppressed her four animal signature in a doc but it just takes one slip for people to be able to grok she's IC. Or maybe they were going off something else, e.g. Devo's relatively low thread presence/discussion driving this game despite being Village. IDK. My current hypothesis at least is that the kill patterns we are seeing are sniping. TUN Edited to add: Bringing this forward for my own reference: Edited to add 2: @Matrim's Dice: Sorry, to clarify what I mean: It's easy but it feels like a very ugly way to win. It's one thing about people reading you as being a frustrated Villager - that level's ok. But being too free or uncareful in the thread can lead to other clears that are uglier. And my view is that as an Elim, one is usually much more careful to avoid that, and has an easier time doing so, because Elim doc right there. And if anyone takes this to mean: "The fastest way to stop Kas getting mad is to hardlock him Elim" you are cruel beyond measure :sob:

Yes I absolutely did I feel like the other corollary is extreme distancing is more rewarding IMO. Or at least ignoring your teammates. Sure you'd have to agree to do that in the doc, but trust is so much more rewarding this game because as you told me before the game, the Elims are functionally a micro-Village with extra steps and with a kill. Which means trying to ID connections...IDK. How would you play, under this schema? What to look for? Disclaimer is I just woke up and unlike Mat no game-related dreams just dreams of rushing to a crime scene and Wyrm was my back-up which, no thank you but anyway. Without caffeine IDK if I'd trust me either. I suppose my thought is as follows: our read of the game and so much of the vote analysis is currently based on standard SE parameters. My question is: do the Elims have an incentive to break from that? Because IMO they do get a certain amount of reward for playing with less of a regard for standard SE. I admit I'm partly considering this because I feel like I'm not finding a coherent team among the low activity players which makes me wonder if I am approaching with a wrong assumption to begin with. LG91 D1 E!Stick says hi. But no, I still don't strongly believe E!Mat, if at all. This is more ??? than anything. That's fair, I just feel that "there has to be an Elim in there" assumption is what was getting us into so much trouble and I remember AG2. My question as well. For the second...sigh. Do I gotta say it << It's obvious from the fact I was cool with riding the exe that I'm not likely to be IC. Comments I've made including speculating Fifth was IC and saying that Wiz might have been active in the IC doc, depending on the state of the doc, likely enforce that impression. Sure they could kill me but a kill on me is functionally a waste. Two IC dead now as a result of that play. How many more to go? The problem with low actives Elim teams IMO is that there's little to go on, we self-cannibalise trying to find their partners, and shots on them can feel like shots in the dark. Functionally unless they have a genius solver they wanna protect, it's the same play Fifth was suggesting but reverse: it doesn't matter how many of them we bring down as long as they kill through the IC and Winz first. I don't really buy your IKYK talk to be honest. Most players including actual Winz doesn't do that because if your bluff gets called and you die, you are going to have a lot of egg on your face and a big apology to make to your team. Unlikely enough they don't wanna go there. If you are IC and get yourself killed pretending to be Winz, same story. That's functionally regular signalling. I don't wanna make comments about more players 'cause I don't wanna solve for them. But you and me being alive isn't that difficult to reason why. And if you look at last cycle where we were self-cannibalising, don't you think that's pretty much the ideal state? If we're shooting among you, Fifth, Aman, isn't that the best place to be? (I know you don't believe V!Aman but I do.) Where's the sense of pressure? We've seen they appear to be sniping rather than playing a normal kill game with their kill. That's the other reason I was speculating about a team tbh. Weren't we already running under the four player assumption. It's the result of the square root rule or the 1/4 rule of thumb anyway. Sure we don't use that as often and prefer between 20-25% but eh. Two things I think. One is a bit - it's a meta level I think Aman would prefer I not use or say too much more about. So imma leave that for postgame if at all. Second - I don't really see that in E!Aman's meta tbh. My difficulty was trying to interpret the teams he kept casting: is this V!Aman? Ironically the result of MR56 is I'm used to a higher chaos V!Aman so I get very confused about here and now. Or was he trying to do the sort of convenience teams he did in MR57? The reason I asked the three of you for your views on each other came down to that. In MR57 what I saw was, he pushes you, backs off, switches to TJ, backs off, and so on. This is really what I was trying to ask for with the MR57 comparison because I couldn't decide how I felt about team fluidity. But the difference here in the opening IMO is the two of you kept banging on each other and he didn't try to exploit Fifth even though that's the natural line IMO, try to get Fifth to think and go against you. I guess the third thing is I don't see him responding or playing this way as an Elim. He doesn't really go for this as a response? The proof is in the fact that he did this to all of you without once needing to make that megapost in MR57. His response to Araris's sus in endgame LG91 was also very different and subtly used Araris's playstyle against him. That post was a blunt hammer. I don't really see that being his riposte of choice if he's Evil. And fourth... At the risk of making this a hard Village tell of mine... Getting mad in thread is often suboptimal. Sometimes you do anyway but the problem when you do as an Elim is that it's easy to accidentally nudge people into V!reading you out of the flash of emotion. It's substantially easier to avoid that as an Elim because you are always being more careful and because unlike the Villager (and arguably, IC) you have a doc to rant/vent in. I get the not wanting it to happen again, it's just that I'm okay with my V!Aman read at the moment. I sort of find Stick a bit more likely than Hael due to the fact Stick opened the voting on Silver anyway. But also the pragmatist in me says that just takes us back to the straightforward V!read of Stick so /shrug. This is what I'm wondering about, in terms of how actively they play. Honestly a raw inactive team just feels so weird, which almost seems to need to imply a rethink, just that /shrug I feel like half the issue is that I'm now struggling to even model how the Elim team is playing. The gambit world I've proposed feels so outlandish part of me wants to dismiss it as paranoia. The other part of me feels like that's pretty much...like why not? Wouldn't that give us max difficulty trying to understand it? I'm trying to work out how I'd falsify it but most of that involves actually securing a flip so... ...Caffeine?

Thought from the hazy trying to sleep fugue state: @Amanuensis — How insane is postulating Mat/Xino? If I set aside my "this is a kayana opening" thoughts, he's persistently defended Xino this game. C1 he wants to CC Xino C3 or C4. C3 the one time he actively intervenes to break a tie (no C1 or C2) it's to ensure Fifth dies over Xino and says he wants to flip you and Fifth because Xino is catchable which is further postponing Xino.

fffs. Edited to add: Christ, but this lowkey makes me want to vote Mat. Y'all spent half the frickin' game ignoring Xino the last time in favour of more 'catchable' Elims and now you tell me he's 'catchable' later? My sodding arse. You JUST IGNORED HIM AND PARANOIDED ON FIFTH ANYWAY. FFFS. Edited to add 2: I'm going to sleep more. I am probably not going to show up until later tomorrow because I want sleep more. fffs. And @Amanuensis - I mentioned last cycle, my theory on Wiz's death was that he was killed on suspicion that he was in the IC doc. That was what I was treading lightly around with my mention of "I could see him Evil" because he could be in a doc as well. But Wiz is known to...his thread activity can suffer when he is in a doc as he really likes his docs. Though that hypothesis fundamentally depends on the state of the IC doc. Willing to vote Nerdy as well. If people still believe V!Mat which I'm not in an objective mood to gauge right now, and I'm down with V!you, and it was V!Fifth, I feel I'm committed to a quiet Elim team one way or another. Which means looking within <TUN, Bookwyrm> as well I think, given the no crossvoting pattern Aman noticed. I find E!Xino making the D1 kill hard to swallow if he really was that busy, unless it was luck. Edited to add 3: Am I very mad? Yes, because I feel I just let myself get talked out of my own V!Fifth beliefs again regardless instead of sticking to them. Fffs. Edited to add 4: @Szeth_Pancakes: Shouldn't Xino be on an inactivity warning? Edited to add 5: Oh and since I can spell it out now: my theory from C1 was that Fifth was IC, based off a post of his I felt was rather pro-IC and anti-Village, hence my refusal to read him as anything other than Village, among other things like his D2. Long story short that's what it boils down to. Obviously had no incentive to tell the thread. Edited to add 6: Ok no E!Mat still feels so paranoid but dear Christ idgi how do you end C3 hellbent on getting an Aman/Fifth lynch no matter what that's just kayana and a commitment to only flipping Xino, a consensus sus if both Aman and Fifth flip V? After the damage has been done? Idgi I'm just struggling to make sense of how this comes from a Village perspective or maybe I'm just so done I can't see it anymore. EDITED TO ADD 7: Going to sleep for real but had a passing thought. Bussing seems to be more rewarding in this game. If we accept that the Fifth/Mat/Aman triad are all V which is where I currently am, the options are an AG2 team or a bus. And yes I'm aware bus affects me too, no I don't really care. The thing is. I feel like the bus calculus we/I have been working on so far is that you surrender a lot of lynch control. This is bad in a normal SE game. What I'm asking is: is it actually more viable here? Suppose your team is generally low profile low thread control low exe control anyway. You win when you kill all IC and Winzik. Isn't that functionally a more acceptable trade? As long as the trusted player keeps killing, and the exe never touches them, it feels like an acceptable gambit. You don't need to outnumber and nothing interferes with the kill anyway.

If I stick with V you, I'm tempted to revise V!Devo, or failing which, postulate an AG2 scenario as I feel the literal problem here is that we are assuming it can't be. And if you ask me who, if not Stick or Hael, if we reject the triad assumption, the Evil player could be in terms of IDing, I feel we just don't know enough about Silver's accuracy. This is where I think Xino could work, if not for the flight deal bit it depends on the time windows as well. E!you? Probably still looking at the quiet ones tbh. Edited: Oh sorry. Thought you were asking everyone to do it. Teaches me to read the thread after an all-nighter. No I still can't really make myself accept E!you right now so the most is that I am not going to stop people. Edited to add: I really genuinely... Like bro. I can't get into your head now and I don't know if it's because I haven't slept all night. How are you asking for Aman, Mat, Stick, Hael rethinks and Nerdy and Xino (ok tbh I agree with Xino and I just cannot at Nerdy) Like. Are you just shooting everyone at this point. I don't understand what you are doing with this.

Oh yeah. Xino

Aman — Am on mobile so apologies that this will be a mess. Everyone not Aman, I'd appreciate it if you ignore this. My mobile can't really do spoilers well. Thanks. I have considered holding my peace on this but I think it's important to just say it, I expect Fifth is trending for the exe, and even if he isn't, I almost feel it's worth just bringing this up in the open, if it helps clear the air. So first, sorry for giving you LG84 flashbacks. I can see where that happened especially when I was being circumspect. It's a weird PoE but just skewed by the fact I couldn't and still can't make sense of Fifth's votes as E!Fifth, but more than that, because I had a crack theory that Fifth was confirmed Village (as in, that) based off some weirdness I don't want to go into in public, which meant I absolutely didn't want to kill him. So yeah I can see where that's kayana and I'm aware that it's an experience that keeps coming back up for you :/ And also a theory that for obvious reasons I preferred not to share with the class but as he's likely to be lynched anyway and I'm not sure I object to a NK being called down on him to settle the matter of his alignment, there it is.

I'm going to say three things, because there's no other way to do this, and I'm not in the mood to get Araris to play mailman. You are welcome to ignore this all and say it is tone deaf and full of excuses. I don't really care at this point. I'm just going to say it and get back to work. 1. If Fifth had behaved this way, I would have voted him out too. I'm explicitly not basing this on you being you, I'm basing it on the fact I genuinely dislike that vote, and I have a better read of Mat, and a theory about Fifth. You can call me bloody stupid for not seeing it and taking the most direct read of that vote. Fine. I'd absolutely agree. But none of it was based on "Aman has to be a genius and also dumb enough to get caught." If I'm committed to one of the three of you being Evil, then I basically have to PoE this. Mat is my solid V read that I'm not budging on. I can't make sense of Fifth's votes as being Evil. They just don't make sense to me as an attempt to side-train. And the theory. And I still didn't like the vote and the timing still doesn't make sense to me. So that's where my vote went. 2. I explicitly mentioned flipping Nerdy first because I don't want to be committed to flipping you and am actively trying to ID other worlds other than E!you! 3. Despite being busy and caught up in work, I was absolutely prepared to hear you out and to listen to you. I made my case but my vote was not going to be final because the last thing I wanted to do was to LG84 you again. I got weirded out by your tone with regard to Mat but it was important for me to try to work through things and to not immediately assume you were Evil. The whole point of asking for the MR57 comparison is I legit wanted to know if I was bloody tripping. I wanted to know why you kept throwing out various teams and whether it was experimental or not. 3b. I don't want to question the validity of you being BigMad and you get to be. But maybe I should make it clear: I just am that bloody stupid. You can say I'm so blind to my own prejudices, fair. Literally the whole point of me doing this is "I don't like the vote" and "PoE." You can argue the Day posts should've looked better to me, but this is the part where I remind everyone I am not good with post reads, I had no idea how to read the posts, and I generally need a few Village games with you or a decent meta background to be able to geddit. This is legit why I keep on harping about meta: because it's a bloody baseline that stops me from doing demented shite. Pretty much every post read I've made has been meta based. I've used Hael's meta, Wiz's meta, and Mat's meta. Guess whose meta I still don't have. 4. Because who the hell can count: I am hardreading you Village from now on and unvoting you. Because if you expect me to either: A. Lie about being mad about being paranoided on, and use it in order to benefit my team (which you're implying) or B. Postulate that you are lying about this Then you clearly think I'm a psychopath, and I don't really care to be further emotionally invested. Aman For the record, I'm going to try Nerdy. This feels like a "I know this is a bad train" from him.

Yeah that's sort of what I'm suggesting. Fair points. What are your current thoughts? Are they bussing though, if none of them final-voted Silver? The bussing without permission seems to apply to Aman in an E!Nerdy world. It doesn't change anything, I'm just annoyed I don't know what changed and saw two timestamps My script can't actually tell you what was changed lol or it'd be a lot more powerful than it has a right to be - I don't believe the Shard retains this data, at least not from what I can scrape. Given I'm not actually voting you right now, does it substantively matter to you? I think I'm just staggered by how what is essentially an argument for putting Xino under pressure is apparently convincing for killing Xino. I know we all have our inner Araris, but...really? >> So yes I struggle with inexperience v. suspicious behaviour but you know this w.r.t. Xino so /shrug I will say that if I die this cycle which should be very unlikely as the fact I was willing to die C1 probably encourages certain inferences, that I hope people won't hardclear Bookwyrm just because I think Bookwyrm is Village. It's my current read but y'all please just no >> If we vote you here and now, will you feel like TJ did in the MR57 final cycle? :eyes: But one point in your favour IMO: you had Aman willing to consider E!Wiz. IDK if you NK Wiz in that world. Sorry guys. Not sure I'm in the full headspace for the game after a lot of dark stuff. Still working on the report. Revising estimate to 60% Kas for the rest of the cycle, whenever I can be on. @Matrim's Dice / @_Stick_, would normally do this myself, and in the spirit of "if Mat lies I'll probably hopefully figure it out" - if you have a spot of time, mind taking a look at the finale of MR57? Last two cycles. I'm interested in whether you notice any MO similarities or not. I don't want to say more at this point.

If we are looking at a four member team which seems like a good working heuristic right now, that's Silver/X/Y/Z. ...If X, Y, Z are Fifth, Aman, and Mat I am flipping the fricking table ಠ_ಠ But honestly, my main problems with an E!Nerdy world: A. I feel E!Nerdy has little reason to avoid voting for E!Aman this obviously. Tbf a lot of this just doesn't make sense but there you go. B. Why not bus? You know your own alignment, I certainly V!read you, and I know my own alignment. The fact that I'm committed to the idea no bus happened is weird: you'd expect them to hardcommit to a CW or bus. The problem with that world is that E!Mat becomes really weird to make sense of because going to Aman instead of bussing when it's clear you can't make up the numbers anyway is nonsensical. C. Still having difficulty reconciling votes and voting actions with Aman's stated decision process and priorities. And I just feel E!Nerdy and E!Aman is...not impossible but a very weird take? Edited to add: Well, I guess there's D., which is more a me problem: I struggle to believe we were so accurate that we tied two Elims in the lead C3 >>

I'll be honest, this is not what a guy wants to sneak back to halfway through his report of hell :| Okay, question for you Bookwyrm: who are these other people you are sifting through to ID the most suspicious? Good luck and take care of your health first! Ngl Nerdy is making me consider an E/E train world >> Largely because I don't really fully think Xino and Aman are teamed but this Which... Uuuuuuuuggghgghhhhhhhghghghhghghghhh I guess it would point to the dgaf people, lynch the dgaf people probably. @_Stick_ @Haelbarde pls talk sense into me, this feels like unwarranted paranoia. Sigh. E!Nerdy / E!Silver? How kayana is this? In that world, Aman looks better for staying on Nerdy tbh. IDK. Part of me is sorely tempted to flip Nerdy first because what. Also technically order of priority because V!Nerdy strongly implies E!Aman. Part of me really thinks this is too kayana: it's highly likely one of <Aman, Mat, Fifth> is Evil and we just need to figure out which one of them it is. Okay deep breath. Define worrying? 1. Why only mildly? 2. Did you see the Xino donut chart of Evil from LG91 that shows based off his playhistory that 80% of the time when Xino is quiet, he is Evil? 3. You are aware E!Xino was very quiet in LG91? Does this influence or change your view in any way? If not, why not? (I'm not saying you should change your view on Xino here, I'm trying to understand where you are coming from.) Edited to add: Isn't there just a fundamental inequality there. I write an entire longpost arguing why the voting looks worse for Aman than it does for Mat and for Fifth. My argument for Xino 'earlier in this cycle' boils down to: "Maybe an Elim voted for me, I guess I think Nerdy is Village, so it's got to be Xino" "Also I don't think the Nerdy train was pure and Aman is a ? and there's Xino so let's vote for him." Are you...seriously saying that an argument with that many gaps in it proves to you Xino is much more worrying than Aman? I don't understand where you are coming from, and this almost feels like motivated reasoning here, to avoid voting Aman. Though that's weird too: in an E!Aman world, I'd fully expect him to encourage a bus.

That's the part that trips me up: 1. No need to switch to Silvereye prior to you? It'd've been a Nerdy lynch without you. I don't know Nerdy's alignment but I currently theorise it is Village, and if it isn't, what the hell is with this EoD anyway. As you said, 41 seconds before rollover, though pragmatically, a tiny bit more than that since Szeth only posted the STOP seven seconds after official rollover time. 2. There was just enough time between us for me to post and vote, and no one else would have known I would have been coming for Silvereye, given I'd just gone to Nerdy. There was room for anyone to beat me to it, or people to vote Silvereye after me (this would be variances in decision and voting speed, i.e. they'd've been moving at more or less at the same time as me to break the tie, but have hit post later, or whatever.) In that window, nothing. 3. Given 1 and 2: his vote was on Nerdy, the CW tie. 2 gives weak reason to believe he was fine with it. It doesn't make him Evil for certain sure but it does make me feel sus under the circumstances, and anyway in a game without a Seeker, I will never speak of certainty. Edited to add: One more question. If your first post of this cycle expresses surprise, doesn't that indicate you are on a V!Silver train as well? So how does that match with...basically everything else?

Sorry for the double-post. Aaaand ninjaed. 1. I don't expect to have too much bandwidth tonight, due to the need to keep on finishing the report. I've at least done the promised once-over for the thread and my impressions are listed up there. 2. I don't want my post to become incredibly long. This is one last pass. Something Fifth said makes sense to me and I want to capture this properly: I ran a script I wrote for LG84 and refined for LG90, that's designed to extract timestamps from posts. The reason I like it is it gives us timestamps down to the seconds, which can be useful in a fast-paced EoD situation. Here's a proposal I have for anyone who is feeling lost by the game, or a sort of methodology I have in mind: Look at the votes. Often, players' votes show where their priorities are. Because no matter what your role is, your vote is your one concrete way of affecting the game state, and furthering your wincon. I've gone on record before as saying that a silver-tongued Elim can turn day into night and good into evil. But the voting data is a good starting point. (To be fair, once you identify odd votes, you then have to do further analysis. But one step at a time.) I start on p.7. It's an arbitrary cut-off but I don't feel like running my script and sifting two pages of posts. We'll note Fifth's movement from Xino to Aman directly before that, that's fine. So: Fifth swaps from Silver to Xino at 1229hrs. I'm highlighting the vote for clarity. FWIW, I am okay with this shift - as I mentioned, I don't really see a point in trying to go for explosion play at this point, and that's not really Fifth's MO, despite the vote staying stable for twenty one minutes. Silver remains in the lead train: it feels like E!Fifth had better options than to just go on Silver and then off again. At 1245hrs, Fifth then swaps to Aman. If he's shopping for a CW to Silver, this is risky. The other main guy who vocally expressed suspicion of Aman is Mat, Wiz and Devo have indicated they're done for the night, and he's not going to reasonably get Aman to vote on Aman. Even if Mat joins him, he can at most expect to create another three train CW. This is a fairly pointless move for an E!Fifth looking to make a Silver CW. TUN is a better consensus CW IMO. At 12:47:20, Aman shifts to voting for Nerdy. This effectively elevates Nerdy to lead train and takes Silver out of the lead. Aman's vote stays stable on Nerdy for the next approximately thirteen minutes in a very chaotic EoD. At 12:47:49, or twenty nine seconds later, TUN posts and votes for Szeth. This is sort of TUN's usual MO, so I don't have a strong comment, except to note that it is possible, but IMO just a tad tough to swallow that E!TUN decides to leave his teammate to hang over his non-voting commitment. (Some Elims do feel that way, it's true.) That being said, I wouldn't apathy-clear. (Dingo!) A later problem. At 12:51:06, around six minutes after his Aman vote, Fifth decides to vote for Hael instead. Given that Nerdy is already the lead train, I don't feel E!Fifth has much theoretical pressure to go train-shopping at this juncture. Honestly I read it as a kayana paranoia vote. I have no idea what he was trying to achieve with that. Fifth who wants padding sticks to a main train, especially with little expressed appetite for Hael among anyone. At 12:51:30, Stick basically goes wtf at the chaos and votes for Fifth. Which, I don't blame her, I was sorely tempted to do myself. Here's something interesting which isn't a vote: Aman's last post for the cycle is edited, i.e. it has two timestamps associated with it. The first timestamp is 2022-12-20T04:55:49Z; the second is 2022-12-20T05:05:19Z. Translating it into my timezone, as I've been analysing on that basis, we have 12:55:49, and 13:05:19. Which IMO, shows Aman was more or less delayed or stunlocked for a decent chunk of that final EoD, since the post edit was recorded as coming in fairly late. I don't know how Village I want to read this given how much yelling and trainhopping at least three presumed Villagers were doing. Anyway. At 12:56:02, Fifth decides he hasn't been indecisive enough, and abandons Hael for the safety of Aman. That was an utterly pointless hop, and one I feel is more likely to come from a Village perspective than Evil perspective. At this point, I want everyone to take note: Nerdy has been the stable lead train for at least nine minutes. There is no real incentive to care on the part of E!Fifth. At 12:56:39, or thirty seven seconds after Fifth, Hael is unnerved by the votestate and jumps onto Silver. This is an exceptionally Village move, IMO - it brings the Silver train back into contention and means that Silver and Nerdy are now tied. Solid Village on Hael. At 12:57:20, or slightly a minute after Hael, I vote Nerdy. I've explained my reasons, but coming onto a cycle late and trying to understand things is rough. I break the tie, making it 3/5 in favour of Nerdy. In this world, Silver's teammates rest easily...for the moment. I then notice Hael's shift at 12:58:11, and edit in a curse/screaming as I try to decide whether or not to defect back to Silver. At either 12:58:13 or 12:58:52, which we don't know about, because Mat did the annoying thing of potentially editing his votes in, he swaps back from Nerdy to Aman. This is just absurdly nonsensical in an E!Mat world, in my view, given the volatility. He is better off staying put and just flipping Nerdy. There's no reason to go for train dilution and is consistent with his persistent suspicion of Aman across the cycle. Nerdy is still the lead train. No need to panic or intervene. At 12:59:19, Stick votes Silver. Again, this is a profoundly Village move, in my eyes. It ties Silver with Nerdy and once more brings Silver into contention, even via a tie. At 13:00:02, I vote Silver. I was slowed down by the fact I forgot we couldn't edit votes in and had to c/p into another window, but I made it before the GM post so my vote counted. I've listed my reasons for voting Silver, and this kills Silver. So I agree with Fifth: Stick and I essentially voted so late it was like a hammer. I'd be surprised if there was sufficient time to process and respond. Too, a risk-friendly Elim team might be happy with a 50-50 shot at a flip. Things became vastly different when I made my switch, but Szeth closes the cycle five seconds later. There's just no time to respond. I don't like Aman's stability on Nerdy in all that EoD chaos. I think we have an EoD where Silver was rarely under threat until the very end, and almost never unacceptably so. But it does explain little incentive to go off Nerdy. @_Stick_ - In short, that's my answer to you. Vote analysis looks worse on Aman than the other two. If you want an E!Fifth game, I suggest looking at MR59, which is also an E!Kas game. That being said, I think LG74 is better as Fifth gets I think C2ed in absentia in MR59, and any other game is a bit too backdated. I don't really see E!Fifth in this game, and I've argued multiple times this is not E!Mat's MO. I also genuinely do not see E!Mat making the opening post he does. It's too FAFO for an Elim, and too rude to your team for them to wake up to finding that you accumulated three votes on yourself (if this had backfired badly) because you felt like getting cute in thread as an opener. E!Mat is careful. I don't see this recklessness coming from him. E!Fifth may gambit but he's decisive. There's no reason to be this noncommittal. Suggesting he's performative doesn't cut it because he went on particularly ineffective trains for shopping. And if E!Fifth is comfortable, he stays put. Edited to add: Open to if you have counterarguments or other thoughts but de facto I have to work, so do not expect to be with much bandwidth. I'll likely be on again, I just decided to put my vote there because it's sort of odd that I'm already making an E!Aman case by my analysis and not wanting to go there, if you know what I mean. IDK how much pressure that really exerts on Xino. Edited to add 2: To be clear, @_Stick_ and anyone else interested, this is the final sequence of timestamps: 12:59:19, Stick votes Silver 13:00:02, I vote Silver 13:00:07 Szeth shuts the cycle. 13:05:19 Aman locks in that edited post I linked - likely he forgot he had it open. I think my thought is: you voted Silver. He had the same amount of time I did to react. Everyone did. I was the only one who reacted. He stayed on Nerdy. Because Nerdy is CW to Silver, or because you tied Nerdy and Silver, I am more wary of votes on Nerdy than I am on people who remained on other trains. I don't know if I'd agree with Aman's account of events that there wasn't a need to intervene: there was time to lock it in solidly after your post and vote. But it fell to me to do it. I can accept people got stopped after the 13:00:07 mark, but that and the fact his prior vote was on Nerdy just feels eh to me. Also I kind of feel that if you're baiting out Silver's teammates, great, time to swap now at EoD and get that flip? I agree I am saying this with more certainty than either of us felt at EoD. But Aman is painting his vote as bait, which indicates he had respectable E!Silver credences, as he indicated throughout the day. And since my vote came so late into the day, such that another GM might have ruled it out (I would not, for the record), isn't that awfully late to leave it to? It feels like he's trying to get credit for the Silver vote despite being a stable CW presence. I really don't like it.

Mm. I note that this is possible for Mat too, with regard to the "isn't this too inactive." But I doubt as well. Customarily as an Elim you don't want your direct thumbprints on this, at least I don't recall that being in Mat's MO. Edited to add: I guess what I would say is that it is simultaneously too direct/assertive for E!Mat's typical MO (cf. his thread control in LG90) and also too ineffective, IMO. I try to play more aggressively in QFs tbf, and have a bad case of overcompensation for Mat FUDing me nonstop in QF62. Edited to add 2: Good look for Devo IMO: The opposition makes me believe that the Elims likely weren't interested in further padding the Silver wagon. Devo jumping on (at this current point, her Shard login shows she was last on five hours ago) with no ability to change her vote is a very reckless move for an Elim. That also runs against what I know of how E!Devo thinks and works. I'm fine with V!Devo. Edited to add 3: @_Stick_ - Yes but IMO we come back to the problem with being absent. You're very reliant on the Village choosing to blink, which is a gamble. I don't see an Elim doing that without having teammates on who can cover for you, or work thread control. TUN's commitment to not voting makes it unlikely he would be that teammate (he could, but Elims tend to feel more bound by their thread promises than Villagers.) Which is a long way of me saying that this takes us back to our consensus that there is at least one Elim in <Aman, Mat, Fifth.> Edited to add 4: This is what I mean by Mat selling the 'it's too quiet' narrative, rather than the Silvereye V!read: It goes hand-in-glove with Silver's play which is what makes me wonder about Mat. But it still feels a tad too on the nose for Mat's Elim play. He could have changed but E!Mat has difficulty being assertive in the thread. Edited to add 5: I will say this. I kind of want to give @Fifth Scholar credit for no explosion play - the timing between his initial Silver vote and his Xino vote is about twenty one minutes. You could argue that Fifth saw there were no takers and jumped to another train, hoping to bait more people. But IDK. It feels a bit sincere to me. @Fifth Scholar What motivated the Xino to Aman jump when you initially said you don't expect to build a shrek case against him in an hour based off gut? Here's my problem. Let's look at the train dynamics at the time Fifth is moving: Courtesy of Aman, thank you Aman. I've vanished. As far as people know, they DK if I'm gonna return. Wiz has gone to sleep, Devo says she won't be around. If Aman can't be lured off Silver, then a CW must be > Silver. The dynamic shifts in an E!Aman world but right now we are tacitly assuming E!Fifth. There are three voters who haven't committed at this stage: Hael, TUN, and Silver. E!Fifth knows E!Silver won't show up. The jump to Xino looks a bit good to me TBH. Aman hasn't gone onto Xino at any point, so it's not clear to me how E!Fifth expects to bait Aman apart from hope. Stick has defended Xino enough it doesn't seem like a good sell. Bookwyrm has been unreliably around, as has Xino. I guess he could hope to bait Mat but Mat has also said he'd rather wait C3/C4. I feel like it makes more sense for E!Fifth to jump to Aman straightaway. You could argue that he didn't want to instigate a fight with Aman if he didn't have to, but what did it matter? He jumps at around half an hour to rollover, then goes onto Aman fifteen minutes to rollover. If he wanted an easy consensus CW, TUN would probably be a better shot. FWIW, Fifth also isn't an explosion play guy IMO - that's more Araris's wheelhouse. Fifth either busses or tries to tempt you. Edited to add 6: There's a lot of raw dgaf energy in this Hael vote, and it looks rather Village to me. Edited to add 7: Long story short - votes. I think E!you is okay with mid-cycle endangerment: for potential Silver teammates, I'm basically looking at whoever ended up on or promoted a side-train that opposed Silver. As Nerdy and you are the main CWs, I'm adding as potential Silver teammates all the active side-train EoD people. The late flurry of activity combined with Silver's non-response is indicative of two things, IMO: A. a strong thread controller teammate and calculated inactivity (less strong on this point but I feel this is quite likely anyway), B. Elim choice to go for a late save. If I look at the late side-voters, this is the state of the votes at your swap: And your swap makes it a tie: In your case, I'm a bigger proponent of vote analysis, because that's how I found you in that Evil game, rather than post analysis. I'll note that if you're Village, you'll probably prefer I do vote analysis anyway because I MLed you the last time I ignored vote analysis and went on posts and tinfoil crack. For similar reasons to why I consider Fifth and Mat potential teammates, I think you could be teamed with Silver. I agree you may be trying to test Fifth, but your vote also has a protective effect on Silver, and I think votes ultimately show where a player's priorities are. The whole reason we are considering an E!Mat and E!Fifth world, or at least that I am considering an E!Math and E!Fifth world after all is precisely because I dislike their EoD voting or at least feel that falls within grounds for suspicion.

I'm cool with softclearing Nerdy for the moment, at least. My view is the more promising pool is <Aman, Mat, Fifth, Xino> right now. P.S. Imagine if the dead doc commented on SE games like World Cup. CR idea for anyway who wants it, feel free. "Hael. And Stick has the ball! What a feint! WHAT A FEINT! That swift pass with the left foot to Kas who taps it in. The goalkeeper had no chance!" Look I'm in withdrawal ok.

My sense of his meta. I've laid out my thoughts on why I feel his response to Stick feels rather pure. I do think you are getting hung up on the weirdness of his playstyle, but that's just...kind of Bookwyrm. He does sus things. I do think he tends to try to be a bit less sus when Evil, if anything, which is a counterintuitive statement, but I laid it out in I think two longposts: the short is he had sus, opportunistic votes as a Villager and in his Evil game, he always keeps on emphasising his votes are subject to change in a way that raises the hackles, and he just...does really new player things. But the one thing I've noticed that so far differentiates his Evil game and his Village game is that Evil him played a tad bit more meta, with reads lists and phrasing that's conventional, check this out: Silhouette's posts have actually seemed pretty Vil to me, but like the example they gave above, there's something...off about them. It seems to me like they're deflecting suspicion. If you want to respond to this, @Shining Silhouette (man, I can never spell Shining right on my first try), then please do. This is just based on my current understanding of the game, and will likely change it in the future. And...I should probably go analyze other people a little more deeply... He frames this as an up and up tone read. This is his Evil game. He also posts this: Compare to more ??? Bookwyrm posts here, from the recent LG in which he was Village. I accept you don't have the time to engage with deep meta, but I think the tonal difference is very striking. He just is a lot less conventional when Village which suggests to me he pays more care to how he is perceived when Evil than when Village. These just read more weird and off the wall to me. I get that same pure vibe from his response to Aman. Maybe if Aman flips E I might reconsider, but I'm happy with my V!Bookwyrm read right now. And: Bro it's barely an hour and a half, Silver's and Wiz's corpses are not yet cold, I've not yet done the big re-read I've promised and will do. If you are Evil, I hope to find you. If you are Village, I hope to exonerate you and go onto Aman. I am not going to narrow discussion to you or Aman or Mat and you should know better There's plenty of time for my vote to shift and Xino could do with some friendly stabbing right now. You can rephrase it as: of the people on the Nerdy train, Xino is the guy I have no reason to V read at all, and Aman is under pressure so it doesn't fundamentally matter to me right here and now.

Cycle One: Cycle Two: K let's at least look at raw EoD because this is going to bug me if I don't. Known alignments coloured in. The fact Silver checked the thread at least twice but didn't vote, not even to self-pres IMO shows a calculated decision to appeal to inactivity, which means I want to look at those pushing that narrative. It also suggests some degree of faith that he had teammate(s) willing to cover for him. Tbf there's an argument he wasn't in danger either, but not self-presing or just voting elsewhere tends to be kind of kayana. Either really busy or the latter - lean to the latter being true even if he's really busy. If I colour in my credences: Cycle One: Cycle Two: It is technically possible that Devo bussed but my gut doesn't buy it. I could see an Insanity/Aman team. Insanity's vote had a bit of a poke vote feel to it and there was no danger at that time. Similar eh vibes about Almond. I don't think two Elims on the Danex train under the circumstances is impossible. Neither are Elims on side-trains. Bah. Xino While Xino could hardly vote himself, I continue to feel the Nerdy train wasn't pure, Aman has two votes anyway, and I am honestly not necessarily convinced that the me-train was pure. Edited to add: At the time I was typing it, you were going back and forth on Aman and I wanted your explicit views on Fifth. I don't know what Aman thinks about Fifth. The way I see it, you and Fifth are both pushing Aman, Aman is pushing you. I suspect there's some implicit ? about Fifth as he's not directly trying to convince Fifth yet, which is a bit interesting but at the same time, I suppose he doesn't really need to try to splinter that front yet if he's Evil. If he isn't, and thinks Fifth is persuadable, then a bit surprised that hasn't happened yet. I don't know it's extremely useful but I do want a sense of where people stand with regard to each other, just to try to ID any oddness.