Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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Seriously - @Amanuensis as you play offsite a touch more than I do, but interested in inputs from everyone on this: We shouldn't be feeling this lost on C6. This is indicative of some error in approach/thinking. Do we have an idea what? In terms of the way they frame their cases, I was thinking, or who they defend. The knowledge that those players are all Villagers should still be there. And being too passive and following the Village's lead should still be notable, no?
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I feel like if Silver consents to the bussing, it'd be worth it almost? Then just snipemax and play hardcore Village. But there should still be flashes of TMI in their posts in such a world, no? That would be the giveaway instead.
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I guess the main objection here is: if players did this, then we wouldn't really be seeing games in which we IDed Elims by noticing that players named them as a sus but refused to vote on them. This is true, but I can't shake the sense that the way Stick did it is overly elaborate, to the point I'd almost expect a conscious decision to distance to be involved there, and then why not just do it? I recall Silver seeing the thread when he only had two votes on him, at least twice. There was a clear point at which he could have self-presed or replied to Stick and Stick could have retracted. But he didn't say anything. Was a bus decision made as early as that? If so, doesn't Stick's behaviour just not really seem consistent with that? That's what stops me, mostly. So I guess you could say it's partly a bus PoE problem. I'm not as fond of the explanation that the team is entirely from Set #2 and that's why they couldn't - Huh. Let's try this. We know there were several late voteshifts: (1) Aman - I'm reading him solidly Village. Not up for negotiation this game. (2) Hael (3) Fifth - flipped Village. (4) Mat - flipped Village. (5) Stick (6) Me Village-majority shifts. Silver didn't vote. Bookwyrm stayed put. I am willing to consider one of <Insanity, Almond> but they still need a teammate. I know Aman isn't, but at this point I'm going semi-max revision. (Max revision is where I unlock Aman's slot for revision as well.) The theory in this world if not bussed is that the team already was in a position where they were on CWs, so couldn't move. But it's hard to get a coherent team in this world without Bookwyrm IMO. Edited to add: I assume this is because putting Silver back in contention with four minutes left is riskier with high volatility and Fifth jumping between trains like Yoda brawling Dooku?
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Not 100% locked there either on mine: With Hael, just a few points: I feel he sort of slipped into the background on later cycles. Occasional good points, but if you're recobbling vote analysis with no real conclusions and you're doing it from scratch, and that's your main thing these last few cycles, I sort of wonder if you are making a last minute effort there since it coincides with the heat on him. The counterpoint is I know Hael has engagement issues some games and needs to be drawn out - I think that happened in AG7 and AG8 where V!me had to nag him. The other counterpoint is he probably should've had them already in his doc - he was doing detailed tracking during MR61 to ID the Jedi, including postcounts and so on. My main reason for V!reading him is still the vote, and I suppose the tone of his C5 posts. But I will note I don't explicitly E!read most of his posts, either. I suppose the way I'd put it is this: in a three or four player Elim team world, I find it hard to believe Silver dies. Add to the fact the main vote shifts came from you, Fifth, and Mat, two of whom have flipped Village, and the final post tap came from me, and I know I'm Village - then what? If I theorise an active bus, I have to look between <Stick, Hael>, and a bus makes a bit less sense for me from Stick's perspective. It's the distancing point: why case Silver and then refuse to vote? It's so early in the cycle that E!Stick should just do it - virtually guaranteed he won't be an end train. If you wanted weaker distancing, literally not casing him would've worked since the only reason I voted Silver was I agreed enough with Stick's case to feel it was worth exerting a bit more pressure there. FWIW the above is the long way of me saying I am only trying to work out if Silver was actively bussed/sacrificed or opportunistically so. I note that in MR61, Hael wanted to do maybe a few cycles of quiet/lower activity player kills before swapping to higher activity players. JNV would have fit that profile, with two votes. The Winzik suspicion could've been an additional bonus. I don't think Wiz was especially loud, either, and then we have Devo, who is still middling profile this game - FWIW Devo is one player where I wonder if that's a Hael target. In MR61, he expressed a preference to not go for Devo early. I tend to associate trickier strategies (rather than gambits per se) with Hael, and am wondering if that is what is throwing me off here. Ignoring a IKYK, a Mat kill makes more sense for Hael than it does for Stick. This does require me to ignore my persistent sense that something is very wrong with this team, FWIW.
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For me, ignoring posts, vote analysis: Two main sets IMO. 1. <Me, Aman, Stick, Hael> 2. <TUN, Bookwyrm, Insanity, Almond> Divisions made more by thread profile than anything. IDRGAF about whether they're divided across the sets or not - I'm committed to the claim there is at least one Elim in either set. (No drek Kas...) The point is therefore first to identify the correct set. On a meta level, apart from Fifth, we've functionally been shooting into #2 repeatedly. I can see a case for doubling down, or a case for switching. Kill pattern seems to suggest #1. Raw, unrevised reads from last cycle push me to #2. The fundamental reason I am not willing to let go of E!Almond worlds is that I could see us being badly thrown by the fact we don't know how Almond would kill (I sort of feel this applies to Insanity as well to a lesser degree but don't feel as strongly about it because of LG91.) In general, I think it is possible to badly misprofile how a player in #2 would kill, with Almond being the most ??? corner of it because we know nothing. With TUN, he has a known kill profile so it'd be more of how much E!TUN feels like screwing with us. I think it is also possible to misclear a player in #1 - but this would come down to misreading or misinterpreting a post/vote as being Village when there were really extenuating circumstances. In other words, it's a function of whether you think the mistake is located in kill analysis, or in a clear/V!read that came too swiftly. @The Bookwyrm - Question for you. You keep on emphasising how much you want to follow experienced players. And yet the one notable occasion on which you disagreed with them was on Xino. Why? What determines when you follow and when you don't? @ExoticAlmond - Asked before, still asking. Have you played these types of games before, IRL or online? Can we get everyone to just, IDC, list your current Elim team you are considering. IDGAF if you wanna change your mind later, just right now. I'm currently on Silver/Hael/TUN, possibly with a side of Bookwyrm.
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That's the main consideration keeping me off a dedicated TUN push right now - I still don't feel good about TUN's approach to the game and general dgaf, but at the same time, I agree with Ash about TUN's kill preferences being retaliation and noise. I suppose I should (and will) go check this against his playhistory since he has just eight Elim games, but that being said, I don't really see TUN going low profile for so many cycles like this either. But again: if not TUN, then who? Bookwyrm? I don't know why E!Bookwyrm doesn't just vote and shift later? Learning from previous games? Hael? IDK, doesn't feel right. You? But why not just go after Silver. Casing Silver is a deliberate move IMO and if you case him, you are already prepared to distance in which case there is no reason to half-arse it. I don't buy that. Aman? Yeah, no. I rechecked my GM PM just in case I've been playing this game all wrong (or right I guess, IDK) but yeah no dice. But then that leaves me with a very bare pool. I would honestly be willing to relook Almond but Almond cannot have put in the kill that cycle.
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Honestly - almost want to say it's a toss-up. The thing about MR56 is that without flips, we only have theories. So it feels like you're chasing at the wind. The problem is that in this game, we have flips, we just don't know where the connections really go/who the sensible Elims are. So it's a different kind of frustration. I've only rarely felt this lost before: MR56 is the natural comparator, besides that, I guess. I sort of want to say QF62 but also not really - getting FUDed hard by Mat felt frustrating but it felt like there was something there if I could just brute force solve in the <TUN, Mat, Devo?> pool. So I guess MR56 would be a 9 and this game would be an 8 or 8.5. I take comfort in the fact we get flips, but I'm just struggling to make sense of what we have, even with flips and post analysis. I don't know what a 10 is, not sure I wanna play that game. I mean, my other point is, with Mat and I convinced of V!you, and Aman sort of exploring E!you and E!Hael, stabbing him rather than Mat would be a decent move for E!you since it'd probably mean a you-Hael thunderdome the next day but given where Mat and I had ended the last Day... I mean, isn't that what Orlok says? Play every cycle like it's lylo >> Fair. I probably still need a nap before a final major push. I'm in recovery from the last two weeks of convnet exam + report to be honest. Edited to add: This should read vote analysis. I'm tired.
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Does E!Stick kill Aman? I know this is a question you are motivated to say 'no' to whether Village or Evil but I think it's interesting anyway. Part of the reason why I do want to open the can of worms right now is because I am looking at the player list. We started with seventeen - now we're on eight. What do we know of the nine who died? One spy, two ICs, and six SDPS. K so tbh: I'm just going to come out and say this because I feel desperate, and the Elim team, whoever they are, are sharp or we wouldn't be running around in circles for no evident reason. 1. I'm obviously not IC. Neither confirm nor deny, blah blah blah, whatever. Neither is Aman. I don't really care what he says, he can say what he wants to. That's my view of the situation, and I think a reasonable view for the Elims to work with, since neither of us is dead. 8 - 2 = 6 2. I'm guessing at least two more IC (Winz incl.), and two more Spies. Which means that from the Spies perspective, they should really have had 1/2 odds of hitting IC/Winz if they ignored me/Aman/Mat. ...Why didn't they go for it? This is more complicated in a single remaining Spy world but ehhhh. Edited to add: SORRY I CAN'T MATHS TODAY IT SEEMS ;-; Ok ok if it's three we're screwed gg wp 104 I have been going between a team of three and four in my head, yeah.
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Insanity and Almond were hardcleared. You pointed out Almond's inactivity - it's possible there's no profile match in the IC doc. No idea, WMGing here. Not killing between <Bookwyrm, TUN> is weirder. Literally everyone except Mat could be MLed. Aman considered Mat Village, you and I both considered Mat Village. Bookwyrm decided to look at me, you got some votes and Aman mentioned the possibility of E!you, E!me, E!Hael. Hael himself nearly got voted out last cycle. What surprises me is for whatever reason, the Elims seem to have categorically excluded the idea of IC!you or IC!Hael. I'm surprised they kept Aman around given that Mat was the main driving force behind Aman suspicion - but AFAICT, Aman is the one slot I am not willing to reconsider, and I don't really care if deadspec hates this, I'm not interested in screwing around with policy reasons and I'll take the L and responsibility for my failure to rethink if need be. What Hael said earlier, in a nutshell. See part of me is like ??? e.g. Bookwyrm / TUN - why did the Elims prefer a Mat kill? But it makes sense in light of a Nerdy green I think - the Elims know that is coming and favour making us snap at each other? IDK, part of me also thinks "Yes, but surely you should just shoot IC." Unless the implication is: A. They are not as close to finishing off the remaining IC as we think they are (i.e. they could not have closed it out with one shot) B. They are trolling/playing with their food. Neither of which is helpful, I know, sigh. Edited to add: @_Stick_ - How likely do you find a two player team at this juncture? Edited to add 2: @Haelbarde, I'm curious what conclusion your vote tallies have taken you to? Edited to add 3: At this juncture, I no longer believe if I truly believe this is impossible in the sense that I either am desperate to avoid trying to choose (from my POV) between you and Hael, or I have just gone stark raving insane from how nothing in this game has made sense anymore.
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I will admit I was massively excited for one hot second when I read it like "WAIT WHAT STICK OH GOD" then realised that it didn't match my sense of the votes since it had been 4-4 and I never recalled Aman accumulating four votes. Even if TUN, can we avoid a world in which one of us is Evil now? It's more or less foregone right. I don't see a coherent team within <Bookwyrm, TUN, Insanity, Almond.> Literally Stick last cycle: "We'll have to deal with this again this cycle..."
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Wha-? Edited to add: Quick and dirty until later: RAW C1: C2: C3: C4: C5: WITH CREDENCES C1: No Elims on sidetrains. Elims are either on Danex or No Vote. C2: Still eh about TUN's indifference. Worth looking at the vote breakdowns again here: C3: In theory, this is a cycle we'd expect massive Elim indifference - in practice, the volume of votes on Fifth suggests that the Elims are probably there (unless E!Hael.) C4: C5: Insights later, if I can find any. Need a nap first.
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I found the problem. You kept Wiz's vote on Aman. Wiz subsequently retracted and moved to Nerdy. This means you double-counted Wiz's vote.
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Bro I know this is tough Neither of us are dead But if you Village bro Kinda need you here and now this is kayana & I'm disappointed not to be de- Is there a hidden win con Do we need to lynch the GM Szeth But ok seriously - this is a major departure and doesn't feel like a IC kill pattern. It's a low info + control kill, it feels like: Mat is reasonably active and was considered to be consensus Village, insofar as that neither Stick nor I were prepared to revise on him though Hael's analysis had picked out Mat C4 I think. Do they feel they know the IC? Or were we getting a bit too close for comfort? But what does the Mat kill do? ffssssssssssssssssssssss @Haelbarde You said Stick created a three way tie? Is there a vote I overlooked? Because there were three votes on Aman but she came prior to my swap off Nerdy, which should have kept Nerdy at four votes, no?
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A guy leaves to go shave his head under meds and this happens? Come the frick on >> Mat, I'd say the Mando'a line for you but honestly... I'm jealous :| Huh. Why Mat though? Almost confirmed not IC.
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ffs so...gambit world i guess? it has to freakin' be right how the frick else does this happen.
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I think we'll all be racing you to just bow out of here...
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QF62 I didn't, but largely because I couldn't see your response to Symph stabbing you as anything other than Village. The goldclear was in MR56 - Aman goldcleared you for it, and since I was an Epic, I basically wasn't sure how much I bought the goldclear. So help me read you bro :eyes: I'd rather not vote you if you are Village, even if I go back to the Hael-Mat-Stick problem.
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This basically. IDK, are we going to try that circle again? Because my stance hasn't changed: I feel a deep wolf best explains the kill choices, but I'd prefer there to be no deep wolf since I really don't feel good about going for Hael (and I don't know why, I just don't.) Which means I am functionally happy if someone can give me a good explanation for these. And I still struggle to E!read Stick or Mat. But IDK, in the world Aman describes - even if the Elims choose to IC killmax, shouldn't there be TMI? Though this [=prefer no deep wolf] is probably not reassuring to TUN since that means I'd probably be gunning for him either way. Edited: Oh hey @Mailliw73, haven't seen you in a long while :eyes:
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This thread right now:
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Realistically, that ^^^^ Pragmatically: we think that someone within <Stick, me, Hael, Mat> is Evil, for reasons that have to do with the kill patterns. Our problem is we also think everyone in that set is Village. I have also proposed that TUN should be more on the table than he has effectively been, largely because he hasn't been particularly Village. Aman's argument and the current dominant train is Nerdy, because there's little reason anyone can see that the Elims would kill Xino unless Nerdy is Evil and going to flip. (There are other potential reasons but they have been lost in the past seven+ pages of confusion!)
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In Szeth's game of circles, you either die or go insane. I'm pretty sure I'm envious of Fifth, watching us from the Elysian peace of the dead doc. Also, FWIW @Haelbarde, you did consider some mindgames with Sith vote manip and the kill but IDK if this level is in your wheelhouse.
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At this point I'm happy to go Nerdy and pray to be exed or NKed so this isn't my problem anymore >> It does feel like taking the easy way out and part of me continues to feel nothing has been particularly Village about TUN's play but yeah okay. It at least pleases the part of me that still does not feel voting Hael is right. But on the off-chance it is somehow still my problem, it's at least next cycle's rpoblme ig. Merry SE Christmas everyone, to those who celebrate. Enjoy the suffering. Edited to add: Hael was on. He made that meme remember? Right after your voteswitch.
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Bro isn't that kind of a big problem with that theory But look. You are E!Stick. Why write a Silver case anyway? If you do that for distancing, surely the logical thing to do is to follow through, and then have Silver agree to respond? He checked the thread at least twice but said nothing. Why would you spend the effort casing a player and then throw it away by not even voting on them? If Silver had shown up as pre-arranged, she could withdraw: even then, in light of Silver's non-response, she could easily say she's uncomfortable leaving it there because it's not productive. And I think something I also wonder: doesn't E!Stick accept the own goal as it is? Suppose you are Village for a moment I know, very big assumption since I have your GM PM and you do not, but work with me here. Does E!Stick talk me off paranoiding on you or trying to construct a more robust E!Mat world? I feel like anything that keeps the Set of Four more viable is good. The thing that has struck me about her play this cycle is how much she's narrowing her own ML options down, by clearing Almond, Insanity, reversing on Nerdy, and so on. Encouraging me to paranoid on you effectively puts us both to brawling and the survivor could plausibly be blamed for any ML. Sure, we're not IC, but we're a distraction and that's good enough. I do feel like a world in which we vote on quieter players is better for E!Stick - I have my guesses about the IC doc, but I feel the fact that a certain profile of player is being targeted may be suggestive of the state of it. Add to the fact we've agreed the Village thing to do is probably to stay as quiet as possible in it. So I feel the fact she is pushing against us resorting to that strategy is a positive sign, potentially. Edited to add: @Szeth_Pancakes was warning us U_U The existence of the Inner Circle was a warning. It was a sign! A sign we would be doomed to spend each cycle running in circles!
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Neither do I... I legit think they could not have confused us more with any choice of kill target, not even withholding the kill .__. It's why I keep asking 'cui bono'? In theory it feels like there's only a few ways it could play out, right? -Flip Xino, convince us to kill Nerdy -> requires Elim on at EoD, just kind of weird because you were already pushing for Nerdy anyway -Convince us <Mat, Hael, me> must be clean -> so basically between Mat and Hael from my POV, has to be one of them. -Sus you? -> Because kill was not changed. But it wouldn't just be you, it'd be basically anyone who wasn't on in time to change the kill. This is so open-ended I feel as though an Elim almost certainly wants to shape the narrative here or try to. There is no functional point in this set-up otherwise. Which is sort of booting me back to Hael a little tbh ughhhhh I don't know anything anymore .__. There's Mistakes Were Made world but that world still... Gah. I'm not adding anything. We know this, we've been over this. And still this is a square shaped peg in a round shaped hole.
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Wouldn't disagree. I guess the one thing where I could see an E!Stick world comes down to knowledge that E!Stick's doctrine is that it's worth doing unexpected things because it throws people off and that can give you an invaluable advantage as an Elim. That happened LG89 where we lynched E!Coinshot!Xino D1 and then JNV and Stick prepared for a Stick (or JNV do not remember which) bus D2 which really threw us because we didn't expect an Elim team to bus right after losing their oneshot Coinshot D1. But IDK that still feels like a bridge too far in the case of the Xino NK? Does it?
