Kasimir

As a Villager, I can't answer this for legal reasons Edited to add: @Matrim's Dice Clearly we supported Stick, that was our job U_U Stronger together, comrades!

If you've played this genre/type of game before, there are ways. I'll leave it at that as I don't like playing for that team

Yeah we have twenty four hours to do it. .................For legal reasons this is a joke, please nobody Village-side react to this I wanted to make the joke but also didn't want to accidentally create a reaction test. Edited to add: I have faith in rational convergence Why would we? I gotta say though, the best Merlin play I ever made was just deliberately doing things and forgetting who the Elims were Can't betray the fact you are the Village win con and have TMI if you don't recall anything.

The Stormfather is merciful U_U Hail the cult of the Stick!

This is the specific statement with regard to Allomantic metals, which strongly implies they are not themselves Invested. There's actually similar* statements for Forgery or Bloodsealing but my intuition is that Araris likely didn't hairsplit, so we are better off not going down that trap. I act surprised... Death Rattles really don't seem like a good fit for Invested Evidence. I think the failure of Sart's accusation makes me think Archer is likely cleared as well unless someone believes Parshendi is persuasive here. (I don't really think so.)

I think - or at least was stumbling towards this thought yesterday - taking it too literally is not helpful because if death is not instant or fairly instant, there will be screaming as well, meaning no 'sudden' sound. I take this to mean that the encounter -> cause of death -> death has to be fairly compressed together, not that there has to be literally just one sound. A chasmfiend roaring as it detects prey, killing the bridgeman more or less instantly/via severe injury, would sort of fit that ballpark, especially if Araris wanted to rule out more prolonged options. But this is me theorising here, I'm still fixing my spreadsheet for C2 info. Edited to add: Let's track failed Accusations as well. Aman - Sart = Whitespine + Lockpicks Alpha - Wiz = Pistol + Bullet Casings Sart - Archer = Stone + Black Sphere

Loud chasmfiend noise? If death was swift, there might not even have been screaming, or the chasmfiend roaring would've covered it. I'm going through the other options right now on my spreadsheet, but I think that the fact this at least accounts for why Araris thought the Slave clue mattered and went for Slave over Peasant/Working Class is a point in its favour. The one issue with a Patji animal IMO e.g. Nightmaw is that you have to explain why he didn't just go Peasant or Working Class. We know it's Invested Evidence, and that appears to have little to do with Slavery or Wilderness, just looking at our list of Evidence candidates. I might consider burning my Accusation to knock this off the table, if you'd rather keep yours in reserve, but I don't want to make that decision prior to actually going over my spreadsheet for other possibilities first.

If they're the Tears of Edgli, yes. The issue is that the Tears of Edgli are a subset of Hallendren dyes but I honestly think the better question is if Araris consulted Coppermind or agonised over it. I could see him shrugging and approximating with Tears of Edgli. I like Stick's chasmfiend thought though - it'd make sense of Slave at the very least. Because if Nightmaw, you'd think he'd go for Working Class or Peasant, which is an approximation of Trapper. Slave is specific. And we now know 'Slave' doesn't seem to relate to the Evidence, so... Edited to add: According to Coppermind, no. But my pre-Coppermind intuition was yes. So the question I feel is whether Araris would have gone with Coppermind or not. I think the fact the pre-Coppermind intuition, as demonstrated by Mat, says yes is good enough reason to think Araris might have counted it. Feels a bit like the 'is tomato a vegetable or fruit' debate in this context. Sure, technically it is a fruit, but if you're trying to put a category that people will recognise...

Slave = Bridgeman? That's why not peasant?

Fair. Strictly speaking for TJ, it depends on whether you consider Hallendren dyes to count as the Tears of Edgli. Also believe that White Sand is clearly Invested. Aon Kii too, whether a Forgery Seal is or not seems a tad more controversial.

Oh alright. A first cut: Sart, Xino, Striker, Wiz, and arguably Fifth (flute is the question) cannot be the killer. EDIT: I also think that fact that the Evidence is Invested implies we can categorically rule out that Wilderness was meant to capture the Evidence. There isn't a good overlap between Invested Evidence and Wilderness related ones. But then that interacts interestingly with the Slave aspect unless it's directionally wrong... Anyway. Flagging Telrao and Stick/TJ for high preponderance of Invested Evidence.

SANKYUUUU KAMI-SAMA!!! Replaced Elderly which I think has to indicate that Slave isn't dragging us too far afield or Araris would have replaced that instead. Either that or some of the Elderly things are terribly off. And we now know the Evidence has to be Invested, so we can PoE that too.

I low-key want you to have been the Assassin who picked Firesnap Lizards, figuring that no one knows what the hell they are except that they kill >> Edited to add: ...Stormfather, please give us a good tile >>

Edited to add: I don't see it as larger portion, just more than one zone of damage, probably, but definitely less than 'all over.' But that's what is pulling me off pack animal cases, e.g. Hemalurgic chimeras, whitespines - at this juncture, it feels like those are more likely to go mass damage.

Makes sense to me. I see you, too, are suffering Araris, can you just take that out tomorrow please >> J/k please just do your Aracle thing but seriously I think this is one of the elements that most confuses us right now. I think the part I dislike about this is you could've done farm. Farm would have hinted at hog and hammer wouldn't be too off on a farmhouse. But why not indicate Supernatural as Method then? Like, if you think it's Bloodsealing and Crab Legs, and the Bloodsealing is indicated by Elderly Slave, why not go: Supernatural + Ocean + Elderly Slave. Then Crab Legs are also implied. Koloss Blade honestly feels like a Battlefield kind of thing is my problem. My styming point for Firemoss is just that it feels like a Hands usecase for Hint on Body. Go Arena/Battlefield + Hand + Elderly Slave. Firemoss is still implied pretty well especially by Hands, and Sword would also be an option we'd still seek out. Even more appropriate since we'd think Gladiator. The problem isn't whether Araris is on our side. It's whether we are able to understand his way of thinking The Aracle's mind works in mysterious ways! I'd have gone unhesitatingly for Hammer or Stone to be fair, with regard to Severe Injury + Head. It just reads like a bludgeoning case to me in that scenario. I'd say this too. I don't feel the partial worry so much because unless you are doing something really wild with your arrows and bullets, it's going to be precision damage, so partial damage doesn't seem quite right.

Do you agree with, I think, Aman's contention that if it were an arrow to the heart, our Hint on Corpse clue should've said chest? Edited to add: Yeah but it'd be the biggest indicator that that's what's leading us astray rn. But yes, painful af >> The partial is confusing me, but I'm leaning towards the array of animal death methods again (sigh) ever since:

Stick pointed that out when I theorised that - prolonged because you'd reasonably expect the Ja to be screaming on the way down. Sigh. More thoughts on Wilderness options: -Chasmfiend (generally agree with Archer that it should probably be visual because huge af) -Firesnap Lizards (idek broskis) -Deathants (no sound, unless you include the hissing of the pod being punctured; death instant enough though) -Nightmaw (sudden noise, and lethal) -Hemalurgic Chimera (possibly Supernatural and unlikely because we last saw them hooting in packs) -Whitespine (pack hunters, unlikely to be a single sudden sound.) -Parshendi (sing when they kill, unlikely to be Sudden Sound, arguably a better Battlefield option? Don't feel strongly about the latter.) -Aimian (if they do the Swarm kill, that's...not likely to lead to a Sudden Sound, unless Hordeling mode activate.) -Air-Powered Crossbow (sudden sound possible, just a bit ? See discussion of arrows.) -Bow and Arrow (sudden sound possible, severe injury possible, probably death from bloodloss if you're using a broadhead.) -Pistol (possible; @|TJ|, I asked you that question because I was hypothesising that there is at least one better way to suggest Pistol via piracy and Ocean associations.) -Fire (Prolonged, not Sudden Sound) -Cliff (Prolonged, not Sudden Sound) -Dehydration (theoretically Prolonged, not Sudden Sound. Had a thought an Elderly Slave was probably more susceptible) -Meekers (those things are quiet - in Sixth of the Dusk, they communicate telepathically, but you'd expect pack chatter if it counts as noise.) -Booby Trap (feels like an Accident cause of death) -Cutaway Vines (Prolonged, not Sudden Sound) -Sandling (sudden sound and lethal) Am I missing something? Feels like I'm going in circles here. Of these, the Nightmaw, Sandling and the Chasmfiend are likely to do partial wounds, but still. On further reflection, remove Deathants. Feel that Araris would have reflected that via a Leg injury, since the ants tend to swarm out when their nests are disturbed and then bite. I think my question is: in a world where Araris intends Crossbow or Bow and Arrow, why not select Loss of Blood in the Wilderness? This would also likely rule out some Patji options that would mislead us. Is that sufficient reason to disregard both projectile weapons? Edited to add: @Amanuensis @Tani @Araris Valerian @|TJ| @Matrim's Dice @_Stick_: Ok, I see y'all in the thread, sanity check here please: if you are dying from Loss of Blood, you'd have to basically go into haemorrhagic shock for there to be a Sudden Sound and nothing after that, yeah? (Only thing I have in mind is that it's gotta be some Severe Injury if you aren't also screaming like a struck rassok after that...) Edited to add 2: WAIT NVM SORRY IGNORE ARARIS SORRY I SAW THE MASS OF PEOPLE AND JUST AUTOPILOT TAGGED AAAAAAAAAAA

Np I'm just thinking aloud until I can sleep because it's bothering me I have multiple distinct hypotheses and nothing I feel could at least secure a B grade -.- Yeah. It (Mat's Methods) also doesn't fully interact with the Slave bit. Also questions about what an Elderly Slave is doing in the Wilderness, which is why the hunting trip death narrative was at least a bit compelling. Feels...off but I guess it's another reason I'd lean against options that are very physical, on the supposition there wouldn't be much of an altercation or struggle. Edited to add: I s2g if Araris removes Slave tomorrow imma cry-laugh my way to work...

Again, this is why I clarify it only works in a world where you think there are only so many options that connect up together. If, for instance, there's a consensus that as a Method, Booby Trap only works with Pet Lizard, then getting a solid no there is good. If you ascribe low probability to the other Evidences next to Booby Trap, then getting a no is still good. If you think there are too many possibilities, then it's not strategic to get a no there. In the case of Pistol, I've been considering whether it's worth it because the way I see it, most people who have said anything about the matter and who theorise it's Pistol or a projectile weapon also think it has to be Pet Lizard because Wilderness. I do think getting a no is probably enough to sweep the rest off the table for this one because Horneater Lager doesn't really work so good with Partial, and the rest would probably demand Hand for Evidence (firemoss and Hand is an obvious call!) But I'm also principally against picking an option I don't think is right just to close the option off - I'd prefer to make a right guess and then be confidently wrong lmao. Again, us being given new clues each cycle only works if there's discussion and if we're revising in the right direction. If we're not, or we're cramming it last minute, we're probably in trouble too. It also assumes we'll get helpful clues - we could be told the victim is Thin, which might rule out some food clues, but it would still not be the most useful tile to unlock. Contra Archer, I actually think knowing the time of day isn't helpful either. To be clear, I'm generally not a proponent of making an actual Accusation in C1, but C2 is fair game. Which are? Edited to add: @|TJ| Question for you. If the Aracle had picked Sea/Ocean for Location and Blood Loss for Method of Death, with a Chest Injury - what's your guess for Method?

Yes and no. Information can help, especially if the consensus is that there's only one or two main sets of options. I've been mulling over kicking the pistol option off the table myself, just for information purposes. Really, it's just that we can't afford to compact it all into C3 because it's unlikely we'll get the time to reassess at that point, even with an extended cycle, if everyone is doing it last minute. But it's also worth remembering V!Aman did a C1 accusation last iteration as well. Edited to add: Inb4 Araris be judging: "I used Sudden Sound to make you think of snap ffs Kas what do you want, a burning bush?!?!?" Yes pls tbh. Edited to add 2: @_Stick_: To be clear, when I say info can help, it's more in terms of trying to clear the slate and getting people to move off bad lines of thought. If discussion stagnates or loops around in circles, it's a de facto waste of C1. Still, this slate-clearing is good in a world where there's only so many whitespine combinations that we can reasonably take Aman's failed Accusation as an indication to look elsewhere. If you think there are many other whitespine combinations, then not so good.

I'm still working on my thoughts as I'm struggling more with this one, but I've been taking Slave now to rule out most pieces of Evidence that seem incompatible on the basis of wealth. Stick isn't wrong that there's a potential overlap with Peasant here so it might impinge onto Method as well but I feel like at least basic Evidence PoE is doable with this. Chiefly excluding things like the Moon Scepter, Tarachin Ball (played by wealthy on Nalthis), Aluminium Ingots (heavy and he's Elderly), etcetera. I think there is a world in which he is in fact absconding with something expensive, which might be the scenario that Araris is thinking of, crime-scene-wise, but this isn't a level I feel comfortable or confident at plying until and unless there's a tile that points in that direction. Edited to add: FWIW I'm just de facto ruling out Firesnap Lizards and refusing to look at them any further. I reread Dawnshard and Sixth of the Dusk for this (speedread tbf) and Firesnap Lizards get exactly one passing mention. That's it. We know they're lethal, we don't even remotely know how they kill. As far as I'm concerned, there's no real basis to know how Araris would run with that one if that Method were used but my suspicion is Prolonged Sound or Smell. If someone really wants and we're desperate at endgame we can probably rule that one out but I wouldn't go there anytime soon. Edited to add 2: For anyone who is wondering: That's it. That's all we know about it. Ggwp.

I was assuming there'd be the sound of impact, that's it, but that's to do with a crack theory that the Elderly is meant to hint at Ättestupa. If not, then cross it off if he'd keep screaming all the way down.

I'd read them as more Marketplace tbh. RaiDel Peppers are cultivated, which I don't associate with Wilderness. Feels a bit too far for me. Edited to add: Referring to both in this case.

I'm reading Explosion as weaker than Ettmetal Explosion. Ettmetal Explosion would probably be like being at ground zero of Hiroshima unless I'm misreading something. That, I don't expect to be reasonable. I'm also still reading 'Hint on Corpse' to be about the actual location of the Evidence than the condition of the corpse, which is probably influencing my analysis even when committing to treat Wilderness as a claim about both Location and Evidence. Which is to say that after how much we are all bickering about what this means, I fully expect Araris to remove 'Hint on Corpse' tomorrow.... Edited to add: Okay. So suppose we commit to 'Hint on Corpse' being condition of corpse. There's no guarantee Araris would draw a better tile so perhaps he wanted to get that in. This means that there has to be a Severe Injury that is also not a Precision Injury (cf. Partial) but Severe enough to kill? Moreover, it makes a Sudden Sound but - notably - isn't Visual, doesn't have a noticeable Action, and doesn't make a Prolonged Sound? The frick is this >> Edited to add 2: Unrelated but I guess this means that if a guy falls in the wilderness, he makes a sound.

That's what @Sart brought up. But I don't disagree with him that Sudden Sound is odd for Parshendi - the Parshendi should be Attuning, meaning it'd be a Prolonged Sound rather than Sudden Sound. I am struggling to see a world where Wilderness doesn't indicate Method - it's just too broad if Araris doesn't use it as a constraint, because kill methods that make sudden sounds are still more plentiful than ones that could plausibly take place in the Wilderness over other location choices. I don't disagree he could have gone for a two-for-one where Evidence was concerned, though. I want to return a bit to Araris's MO because I think that's more helpful here given I at least have been running in circles: 1. If a tile doesn't work too well, Araris shrugs and tries to 'clue away' from other alternatives and plans to replace it if it is a poor fit. In other words, exclusion is important. especially if a tile doesn't seem to make sense. This stands out to me for tiles like Elderly and Slave. 2. He tried to select Location in a way that both narrowed down other Methods and fit the Evidence. I think this might be a suggestion he applied the same methodology here in Location selection. (Weak suggestion this might be going on with Partial here?) If we return to the Evidence set, following 2: <Tonk, Cremlings, Water Vine, Crab Legs, Pet Monkey, Hog, Chull Dung, Crem, Pet Lizard, Claw Marks> This 'narrows' it to: <TKN, Aman, Alpha, Fifth, JNV, Stick, Mat, Wiz, Archer> Of these people, who have Wilderness-related Methods? Dropping TKN. Dakhor and Shardblade are a poor fit for Wilderness, Rathbore Monk is less likely to target an Elderly Slave, and anyway this is better signalled by Temple, and Blackbane should have resulted in a Poisoning/Sickness Cause of Death choice. Buried Alive is properly Suffocation. For Aman, Dagger is an odd choice for Wilderness. Better signalled by Slums. Deepwalker should have elicited an obvious Sea/Ocean pick, and Nightblood IMO shouldn't be associated with Wilderness and should anyway have elicited a Visual as observed by a bystander. Black Frayn is obvious Poisoning as Cause of Death, and I feel like you could make a decent case for 'Sickness' as Dehydration but I could, I suppose, see the slave passing out/collapsing as the Sudden Sound. So if Aman is on the table, I feel it has to be Aman = Dehydration + Cremlings/Water Vine. Alpha doesn't feel like a good fit. Cutaway Vines are very Wilderness but should not have resulted in a Sudden Sound. Bloodsealing and Steelrunning are more intuitively Supernatural. Poisonous Sting is possible here, but why not go for Poison/Sickness? Hook is an option, but feels like Slums or anything urban might be a better choice, seeing as it occurs with Inquisitor executions. For Fifth, Ettmetal Explosion fits with Sudden Sound and Severe Injury, but is a strange fit with Wilderness (to be fair, so many things are weird fits with Ettmetal Explosion...) Given the strength of Ettmetal, I agree with Archer after further thought - Ettmetal Explosion shouldn't have resulted in partial hints. (I think this is true no matter which way you read Hint on Corpse.) Aon Sheo is obviously Supernatural, a Poisoned Needle should have been Poisoning/Sickness, and Acid is an odd fit with Wilderness and I don't think it would cause a Sudden Sound as the victim would be screaming in agony. Aimian is possible here, if we are thinking about a specialised hordeling I suppose. Still, for the sake of it: Fifth = Ettmetal Explosion/Aimian + Pet Monkey. Of JNV's set, Bow and Arrow is possible. Soulcasting seems fairly Supernatural, while a Hammer is theoretically possible but strange for Wilderness. A Jeskeri Cult Ritual shoudn't have resulted in a Sudden Sound, and while a Toxic Fungus works with Wilderness, again, seems like a Poisoning/Sickness case. JNV = Bow and Arrow + Hog. For Stick, I consider Sandling or Explosion likely, with the caveat that Explosion is once again a strange choice for Wilderness. I'd expect it more for Fields or Farmhouse because of grain silos. (All those hours in Assassin's Creed: Odyssey ftw.) Drowning should have called for Ocean/Sea, and being Burned At The Steak is going to lead to a Prolonged Sound. (Also, not in the Wilderness!) A Grandbow is theoretically possible but much more battlefield-related. Stick = Sandling/Explosion + Chull Dung. In Mat's case, I'm generally looking at Cliff. A Mistwraith seems more slums or slightly more urban, but anyway, being devoured by one should probably lead to a Prolonged Sound. Neither the Bands of Mourning, nor Martial Arts, nor a Dueling Cane have Wilderness associations. Mat = Cliff + Crem. For Wiz, Firesnap Lizards and the Pistol are live options. Coins should be urban, calling to mind the Scadrial/Mistborn setting, while a Sword is an Arena or Battlefield weapon. Backbreaker Powder is a Poison. Wiz = Firesnap Lizards / Pistol + Pet Lizard. For Archer, I think it's between Parshendi and Stone. The other three are all clear weaponry options, whereas a Stone isn't an awful fit for the Wilderness. (See: Talk with TJ about Head as a concern about Stone.) And as Sart pointed out, Parshendi might not fit well because we would expect a Prolonged Noise. Archer = Parshendi/Stone + Claw Marks I need to sleep on this one properly. I feel like I'm just missing something very big between the two sets.