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twelfthrootoftwo

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Everything posted by twelfthrootoftwo

  1. twelfthrootoftwo
    If we know Macen was 1) PMing last cycle and 2) involved in Shallan's death, that makes a pretty good likelihood that one of his PM contacts was the killer (ie a division user). In which case I don't think revealing the PM contacts is a good idea... Orlok, re. this post: I appreciate the reasons for a villager arguing Bort wasn't killed for his role - that was the view I took, after all! But I still think it probable that multiple Diagramists argued that way as well. Your lengthy explanation of mixing up Ren and Hero seemed somewhat overblown to me, too. My vote will go on Bridge Boy for now, though. Again over the Bort thing, which BB held a strong opinion on.
  2. twelfthrootoftwo
    I can take care of myself. Keep protection on Macen.
  3. twelfthrootoftwo
    I wanted to do this ages ago. Sorry it's taken so long. All of Hero and Ren's posts: Issues they both agreed on: Diagram Windrunner - day two, after use of Gravity on Meta was revealed. Other advocates: none Killing inactives - both of them were calling attention to lurkers (night two) and this is reflected somewhat in their votes (Ren=>Idolevy, Hero=>PK) Other advocates, Phatt, me, Bort, probably lots more Bort's death not due to Diagram contact - for obvious reasons. Other advocates: Eramit (indirectly), Orlok, Araris (indirectly), Alv, Maill (eventually), me, BB Dissenters: Macen, Clanky, PK, Feligon Both of them were in favour of targeting inactives, which is a point against doing so. I'm more interested in the debate over Bort's death, though. With their Windrunner at risk, they would have good reason to push the thread away from lynching the four contacts. Of those people, Orlok's additional mix-up of Ren and Hero back on Night One has attracted my attention. Also, tent animator, good job! (I would personally prefer a long day cycle, though either way works.)
  4. twelfthrootoftwo
    Did they need Gravitation to get through the immortality bit? Hmm...Whoever used Division, if PK wasn't your intended target, someone with Transportation has just identified you.
  5. twelfthrootoftwo
    I'm wondering if Ren could create more than one squire, since we know in the books Windrunners tend to have more squires than other orders. Aonar, are there possible exceptions to the one-squire rule? (For that matter, is there a one-squire rule or are we all making assumptions?) Adamir: I'm not sure if you just haven't caught up or if this is intentional misdirection, but we've lost both a LW and TW, and there's no chance for either of their squires helping us out. We would be relying on duplicates, which we've seen no evidence of. Illumination allows the use of PMs to manipulate. Transformation allows searching for KR/squires to kill. (I'm not against Macen squiring - I would hope he did so last cycle - but both LW powers are useful to the Diagrammists.) Edit: I'm also going to be interested to find out how the deaths of Hero, Alv and PK happened.
  6. twelfthrootoftwo
    Shallan Renegade
  7. twelfthrootoftwo
    I'll try and do a thorough sweep of Ren and Hero's posts at some point this day cycle. Until then, Ren put a lot of focus on idolevy; I can't decide whether this was an easy villager inactive lynch or throwing an inactive teammate under the bus. Shallan, I'm poking you again. You didn't come back as promised last cycle.
  8. twelfthrootoftwo
    Disclaimer: Take with many grains of salt. I've been so far off the mark this game :/ Squire surges are given at random, I think. That said, there's a 50% chance Hero did get Progression, but it won't trigger if he's killed. Maybe we could use this to check which Radiants we have on side - SB hit Hero, DB hit Ren? Those with Tension: You can protect people! Now would be a good time! Probably a bad idea, now you've said it openly. Squiring someone is good though.
  9. twelfthrootoftwo
    Renegade Hero (Macen, your vote is on Ren at the moment, I think) *Edit: Didn't see the change now if anyone wants me again, I'll be in the corner banging my head against the wall
  10. twelfthrootoftwo
    I'm sorry, Macen Renegade That makes two games in a row... We do still have Leif as a Progression/Abrasion user, and Tension can function as protection too.
  11. twelfthrootoftwo
    Macen, re. numbers: I agree it's statistically probable one of the PM recipients is a Diagrammist (I get 69.3% using a combination method and 6 eliminators). This is true of every other random set of 4 players (taking a player base of 25, which excludes Bort and Meta). The numbers that are actually interesting in your case are these (bold mine): The first one says that if one of the contacts is evil, there's a 100% chance they would kill Bort. The second one indirectly says you believe there is a 100% chance there is a Diagrammist among the contacts, which - based on the first number - implies you think there is a 0% chance Bort would be killed if he did not contact a Diagrammist. (This is assuming you have no further reason to definitively suspect the contacts, which may or may not be the case - if not then please say something!) Your statistical argument basically boils down to "Bort was definitely killed because he contacted a Diagrammist and they chose to kill the KR", and that is, I believe, what we are concerned about.
  12. twelfthrootoftwo
    Thanks Paranoid King. (Do you mind being called PK? Bridge Boy, do you mind BB?) I'm going to put my vote back on Macen. There's that issue from the last night cycle, which I am still wary about. His insistence about going after the PM people is starting to feel like he knows something. Given the level of focus on the PM recipients (well, PK and Leif mostly, but I imagine Ren and I will come under similar scrutiny should they both turn up innocent) I would expect some more forceful voices trying to divert discussion if there was a Diagrammist under the microscope. And then there's this: So...lynch the PM recipients, because there's probably someone evil there. Except Leif, who was leading the lynch at 4 votes at that point? I'm confused. If Macen is in fact a Diagrammist, then I also suspect Feligon, who has been trying to close a lynch with several hours (and evidently decent amounts of discussion) to go.
  13. twelfthrootoftwo
    Ditto. I'm not satisfied; the post weighted the player above the reasons. That said, in the interests of not lynching an active player, Macen Paranoid King. Why not Ren or myself?
  14. twelfthrootoftwo
    Bort opened a PM with me in night 1 (so we had a bit of a discussion through the day cycle). He said he'd opened other PMs with Ren, Leif, and PK. We discussed Hero's thoughts on Gravitation a bit (nothing that didn't end up in thread anyway). I brought up general wariness of Ren, though Bort didn't respond to that in the PM. (If you're looking to get a read on me based on this, note I was suspicious of Bort for most of the cycle.) It's certainly possible there's a Diagrammist among those he PMed, though that would create a small pool of potential suspects to be scanned by Transformation. They could also have gone after him for being an active voice in the thread. Ren, Leif, PK, can you confirm the PMs? Macen, this post: You were suspicious of Ren, and thought you were going to die...so you gave a name, but not the reasons behind it? That would have been of minimal help if you had been killed. What are your reasons? Edit: formatting
  15. twelfthrootoftwo
    They could. And then I could refrain from removing my vote, as I did with Joe last cycle. As a serial poke voter, after the first cycle I'm usually happy to turn a poke vote into a lynch in the absence of a better suspicion. Since poke votes have received a lot of attention this game, I'll also point out that, at least for me, they're not so much about directly gathering information as they are developing and maintaining engagement with the thread. In an ideal world, everyone would be posting and voting immediately with the intent of lynching someone. But, as we've seen, the majority of players don't. Many end up not voting - or posting - at all, which sets up a habit of silence that can be difficult to break. Poke votes get those people reading and responding to the thread, even in small ways, which in turn make more meaningful contributions easier later in the game. Now, I don't know whether or not this actually works for the people getting poked. But I can say with certainty that as a poker, it works for me. I'm with Hero and Macen on this. Particularly if we're hoping to go with a long-term scanning plan, as several people (yourself included, Bort) have proposed, we're going to be relying on having reliable protection. That does raise a question of whether Progression users whould hold on to their charges as well, since the Gravitation charges are only useful in this way of there's a protection power to boost. (My answer to this is that they should use their powers, since I think it's more likely the Diagram have a WR/SB than they received a random boost, which makes a maximum of one Refugee Gravity user to a max of four Refugee Progression/Abrasion users if there are no doubled Radiants. I'm interested in how others see this, though.)
  16. twelfthrootoftwo
    Macen With the writeup now posted, we know that Meta had someone with Progression trying to save him. The Diagrammists used Gravity to make their kill unstoppable. Therefore, any plan that involves a public trusted person is going to end with that trusted person splattered over the rocks wherever they land. Until we can lynch their WR/SB, and ideally check they don't have a living squire with Gravitation, I think it's better to let the KR work behind the scenes rather than trying to set up public trusts. Putting the writeup aside (since it's only been posted recently), I'm still inclined to agree with Hero about Bort's plan. Revealing the identity of all the KR like that for the sake of successful squiring is not worth the risks. Jain's version makes more sense, but runs into the problem of the scanned-and-confirmed squire needed as the LW/EC contact point. We have a lot of silent people...Adamir, for example.
  17. twelfthrootoftwo
    *crickets* So I guess the discussion needs to start somewhere... Macen, can you elaborate on this discussion of role distribution? Specifically, why those powers and why those numbers? Jain: This post reminds me of your LG12 defensiveness. Comments? That's all I've got for now. Edit: blue
  18. twelfthrootoftwo
    Damnation, Torren, you were supposed to be grumpy Torren held the spanreed upright with one hand. He wanted to watch the ruby, to not waste a moment of contact. Whoever had destroyed the bridges was attempting to cut them off from the rest of the Highprinces' forces, and that made his spanreed both invaluable and dangerous. Instead, he closed his eyes and counted breaths. He could hear distant footsteps and conversation, but nothing stirred near his tent. The spanreeed twitched, and he opened his eyes. It lifted into the air of its own accord. He placed the small bottle of ink under it, in the centre of the circular paper. The reed inked itself, and began writing, at an angle he had to crane his neck to read. Information. A question. He twisted the dial, and picked a more natural angle for his wrist. First the code phrase - Past month three - then the message. Connection division. He paused. Trap. Person knowledge. The bridges were broken; a trap, by an unknown trapper. Death. Two; sword. A Shardblade was lost. Danger Alethkar knowledge. Discovery person knowledge. Protection sas roior. The spanreed abruptly fell, the ruby no longer flashing. A small puddle of ink pooled under the nib. Torren considered his orders: find those responsible, and protect his Highprince's interests. He had no intention of letting the perpetrators get away with their crimes, but his contact seemed reluctant to acknowledge Alethkar and its king as his first loyalty. He realised, unhappily, that if the refugees needed aid, he might not be able to provide it.
  19. twelfthrootoftwo
    Thanks Shallan. Joe hasn't posted since receiving his PM.
  20. twelfthrootoftwo
    "No bodies, sir. Just the whistle." Captain Iramil turned to regard him with piercing green eyes, the mark of his station. "The news has spread, I take it? What do they say?" "Foul play is assumed. It is generally believed that Faialen and Edr were both killed in the same incident, though whether a third party was involved is not known." Iramil paused for a moment, then nodded. "Observe the situation. I will assign others to assist in gathering information." "Yes sir." Torren saluted crisply, then turned and left. He would report the events to his contact in Roion's force via spanreed tonight. Perhaps Thanadal would seek to downplay the security breach, but if the refugees were in danger, all deserved to know. Instinct told him that Faialen had been responsible for these deaths, but that did not mean she was working alone. I would suggest taking care when using Illumination as well. Since the PMs are one-on-one, there's no way to disguise who the creator is. Shallan, you impressed a lot of people in QF8. Any thoughts on this game? Edit: the Awakener strikes again!
  21. twelfthrootoftwo
    Oh what the hey. Torren, darkeyed spearman, grumpy conscript, and spy for Highprince Roion, is in.
  22. twelfthrootoftwo
    So according to this AMA lots of people want more Nalthis games. I've had an idea for the core of one for a while, and it's now fleshed out enough to get opinions. A lot of elements have been drawn from Claincy's excellent Colours of War game, but there's new things as well. The Tears of Edgli are in demand across Nalthis. Coin, luxuries and Breath are traded for the valuable dye, in grand deals sometimes involving dozens of merchants. One such deal is set to be negotiated on a pleasure barge, being poled upriver from Tedradel in a three-day tour. Except everything on board seems rather...grey. And, come sunrise, you find your polers and their quants are nowhere to be found. The boat has been taken hostage. If the trade falls through in such a dramatic fashion, Hallandren's dye trade will be crippled, and the strained relationship between T'Telir and Tedradel will weaken further. The merchants will have to find those responsible with the only available tools: wits, Breath, and dyes. Factions Basic Mechanics Breath Awakening - Mechanics Awakening - Types Other Roles My Concerns
  23. twelfthrootoftwo
    Thanks to our two GMs for the great work, and well played to the Cultists and Pan-Dareth. (Whatever ended up happening to that panda?) We had help I won't presume to speak for Meta, but as one of the Warriors my input might have a place here. 1) The end of the game wasn't that certain. We could easily have been wrong about some of the soft-confirmed people (I'm particularly thinking about Wyrm here, but it's still true for the others). 2) Neo (and Meta, in a PM) both implied the Elantrians had some sort of protection power. I would have expected you, in particular, to use it, but as it turns out it was just miscommunication.
  24. twelfthrootoftwo
    Wuh. Claincy
  25. twelfthrootoftwo
    Called it The Odiv part, at least. We seem to have a solid plan for Luckat and Clanky, so there's not much point looking at those two. Hael: As previously stated, I can't spin him giving his poison to Kas into a serious Cultist move. Kipper/Burnt: There was some weirdness with Kipper before, and Kas has pointed out parallels between things Kipper and Bort have said. On the other hand, Burnt has made some useful observations. Dow: Probably soft-confirmed, because it seems Bort was happy to lynch him. Araris: I'm not sure what to make of him, because he hasn't done much to influence my opinion. Which is interesting in itself. The info coming about Clanky will be interesting here. Piff/Emerald: I disagree with Ren about clearing them based on suggesting Luckat for the scan. Claincy: The big argument against him is inactivity due to RL. I've been guilty of that too this game, so let's just say I'm sympathetic of RL reasons and have no idea of his alignment. Ostrich/Silverblade: ...Meh. Aonar/Wyrm: Luckat posted a comment about how we shouldn't treat the Dula as a pseudosafe role. On one hand, I think it's a fair point; on the other, we know she's a Cultist. Not sure which way to take this, except that I'm not quite as ready to trust as some. Wonko/Smart: I consider him soft-confirmed, both for acting as Phat's messenger and for passing his Seon to Meta. (I assume - Meta, is this true?) I'd vote for Kipper/Burnt, but that would create a three-way tie. Clanky has claimed Debtor, and we've decided we don't want to kill a potential Village Elantrian (I think?) so...uh... Claincy. Sorry Edit: Blue Text Awakener strikes again!
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