dowanx
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Everything posted by dowanx
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The fact that Moderation has not stepped forward with any information, were planning on partnering with Discovery and took it a step farther and protected Wyrm pretty much seals the deal in my mind. Bort I think our factions could work well together. Zas, I have to agree with you on the lynch for Wyrm.
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I don't think Aonar or Wyrm were up for a lynch. Whoever the lynch target was I bet is the next discoverer we have discovered. With only two deaths there might even be another discoverer found.
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Amazing game! I had a lot of fun playing it and I gotta say great game coinshot clan. Gotta love close games
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Neos actions have been so suspicious. Please review the posts and thread again if we don't get this kill right the CC have all but won. Neo agressively attacked me because I posted for him. His actions reek of a CC player. Please read through the thread and you'll see what I have seen. Come on guys don't get this lynch wrong.
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As promised here is my post. It is two parts first about neo's post saying I am a CC and second why he is a CC. Neo's post: Day 1: I was discussing game mechanics while you were doing what exactly to help the village? As for me misreading some of the rules I think it is a fairly common occurrence to get some of the rules wrong ;p It has happened to almost everyone here. Day 2: I am not sure why this is suspicious as plenty of others have done this themselves. Day 3: When do I get called out? Someone says I am quiet in the PM and I responded in the PM... How or why this is suspicious is beyond me. Day 4: This by no means was a bandwagon as it resulted in a tie vote ;p And yes I 100% think your a cultist and when I find someone I have strong evidence against I go after them. Day 5: Your not innocent me going after you is the exact opposite of suspicious. Why Neo is a CC: The first and foremost reason Neo is a CC is due to his change in play style from past games. He rarely is this active or posts nearly as much as he does. Over the cycles he has posted about 12 times which is a much higher then other games. This is just not how he plays and the increase of activity points to him being a CC. Next is the quality of his posts. Almost half of his posts have been poke votes. For reference you can them here: http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-3#entry282116 http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-4#entry282260 http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-7#entry282754 http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-11#entry283431 http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-12#entry283488 Poke votes can be helpful, but it seems like he is doing so many so he can say he is adding value when in reality it has done almost nothing. This seems like a strategy to try and seem not only active, but "helpful" without being helpful. This reeks of a Eliminator to me. The only post of somewhat relevance is this one: http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-7#entry282754 but then he says he is going to review and never comes back to post his suspicions. He does that again here http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-11#entry283431 and then again doesn't come back with any reasoning. In fact I think the only time he has really brought up any suspicion was on me AFTER I called him out for being a CC. This reeks of being a CC as well. He has been crying victim that bandwagons are forming on him last minute, but I have yet to find where a true bandwagon has happened to him. Shenanigans happened in the Passenger car cycle 4 and neo was there. Yet another piece albeit small that Neo is a CC. Not a single vote of his has helped the village except the vote he used when he was up on the chopping block: Another small piece that he is a CC. His willingness to be role blocked is actually a hindrance to the village as Clanky so aptly pointed out. Another small piece that he is a CC. His attack on me after I called him out. Neo you were the one to first post a large post trying to shift suspicion onto me. This is another piece that you are a CC. There is more, but sadly I have to log for the next couple hours ;/ I will try to get back on and post more. BTW sorry for grammar etc. I have to log and can't proofread.
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I am so confident that Neo is a CC that if he isn't I volunteer to be lynched the next cycle. I am in the middle of writing a long post in response to Neo's... will come back with why I am this confident.
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This game looks amazing... sign me up as Dow.
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I strongly suspect Neo. Things just don't add up and I am highly convinced he is a CC.
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What Shallan did seems like a very foolish thing to do if she was an eliminator unless there was a large pay off for taking that gamble. So we gotta ask ourselves what does she have to gain from doing what she did. Her actions basically amount to her trying to buy the assassination kill for the cheapest possible. It doesn't reduce the risk of anyone else losing coins because failed bids are returned to the owner. If she is a Villager, I can see some credence to her reasoning for doing what she did. She tries to fool people out this round and hopefully secure the kill and then next time an assassination kill is up really buy it taking both of those assassination kills away from the CCs. If she is a CC her actions basically give away the assassination kill. Why would a CC member draw attention to themselves to try and scare other players from getting the assassination kill. So they could get the kill for cheaper? Is the gamble of basically outing a CC member worth the chance of saving a few coins? I don't think so. That combined with the math skills she has used when she was in the Buffet Car with me leads me to believe that Shallan wouldn't make that bad of a gamble if she was playing as a CC. I read through the forum and honestly the most suspicious player to me at the moment is Neo. He just doesn't seem to be playing like he has in past games and while I don't have concrete evidence he is my top suspect atm.
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I currently don't have any solid suspicions of anyone at the moment so I am going to vote for who my gut is telling me to. Clanky.
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Thanks for the info Gamma. I am going to vote for myself Dowanx I want to get paid and I have never voted for myself so why not
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I would like to hear more about what happened in the caboose car. Gamma can you shed some light?
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Aww, ok thanks for the clarification Ren.
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Hmm could we get a GM to weigh in?
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Just to be clear I meant after a kill has occurred. I guess it doesn't matter much though because we aren't trying to hide a seeker or defender type role. I would also like to point out the CC don't know who each other are yet and during the first few cycles only the ones making the kills will know who the others are. At least I think that is how it works. So round 1 only 1 CC will know all CCs and round 2 only 2 CCs will know all CCs and so forth until round 4 or 5? With 22 people and no google doc I am betting on 5 CC members.
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Hey guys I will be placing my vote on Shallan. As for strategy this game I would really like to call out more discussion in this thread. I haven't seen any real analysis of the game mechanics in this thread which is great day/night 1 fodder. I personally think the cars mechanic will work great as a semi-pseudo-seeker. If someone gets killed in a car the inhabitants of that car should become public knowledge. 22 people playing means about 7 people per car (No one starts in the vault car right?). If someone dies in a car we know that at least 1 of those 7 is a CC. This doesn't tell us much by itself, but as the game progresses it will become useful. Any thoughts?
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Sign me up as Dow. I might miss the first cycle due to a heavy work load, but I hope not.
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Hey guys just posting to check in. Work has been brutal over the last week and I haven't even really had time to read the forums. That said I will try to get caught up before the cycle ends and post my vote, but I might not get a chance to.
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Well it looks like the deal is sealed on Karlin.
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I am up for getting Bort more votes then Winter Another thing that was always suspicious about Bort was his posts about guests viewing the forum. A couple times he acted angry at all of the "lurkers". I am not sure what to make out of that, but maybe that can give us some insight into how the other Cultists are playing. I went through the thread quickly to see who posted within close proximity of the known Cultists. Some good analysis here might help us find potential Cultists or give some evidence for soft confirming villagers. I am not nearly as good at analysis as others on here so please feel free to hi-jack this post with your own analysis. I should note that I left out links between confirmed Cultists and confirmed villagers as well as confirmed Cultists and dead players. This list is more to help us find potential Cultists. As for finding the Gyorn I might be able to help with that. Kas I would like to take up your request on a Seon. Links: Winter and Haelbarde: http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/29102-lg12-shadows-of-elantris/page-10 Here they talk about the possibility of a Debtors role / Day 1 lynch. Winter and Kipper: http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/29102-lg12-shadows-of-elantris/page-17#entry267495 This isn't really a conversation, but they posted closely together so I posted it. Winter and Wonko: http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/29102-lg12-shadows-of-elantris/page-17#entry267523 Very light conversation. Winter and Kipper: http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/29102-lg12-shadows-of-elantris/page-17#entry267645 Playful conversation about a downvote and Gyorn. Bort and Haelbarde: http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/29102-lg12-shadows-of-elantris/page-22#entry268978 Talked about experienced players. Winter and Arasis: http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/29102-lg12-shadows-of-elantris/page-23#entry269337 Not really a conversation, but very close posting. Bort and Haelbarde http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/29102-lg12-shadows-of-elantris/page-31#entry271954 Between 1:55am and 3:04 am they communicate about role sharing. Bort and Seonid http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/29102-lg12-shadows-of-elantris/page-32#entry272080 This one probably means nothing. My thoughts: Haelbarde's name does come up more often then others which actually makes him a little less suspicious in my mind. He has some semi large posts with known Cultists which if he was a Cultist himself why would he do that? Kipper I am a little more suspicious of after doing this. I wish I could re read these and come up with more useful insights, but I am at work and already have spent too much time making this post. Maybe when I get home tonight I can dig into it deeper.
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I am going to vote for Alvron this round although that might change based on how people vote over the next 50 minutes.
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Aww good point Wilson. I am not sure how that slipped my mind. On a good note that means we don't have to worry about a Luckat/Wilson Gyorn/Odiv combo!
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I just went through the mammoth task of rereading the entire thread. Here are my thoughts on a couple people I find suspicious and two I am pretty sure are Cultists. I should also note this is my first time doing a really deep analysis so I am sorry if it's not up to par with others or if it has a mistake or two. I hope to get better with time, but the only way to learn is to try. Zas This suspicion is based on the idea that whoever leaked Phatt’s Role is most likely a Cultist. The suspect pool started out with Wonko, Phatt, Zas, Neo, and Ren. We know Neo and Ren can’t be Cultists due to being cleared by scans which then leaves Wonko, Phatt, and Zas. I decided to look at Wonko first out of those three. I found several reasons why Wonko is most likely not the leak, but what stood out most, at least for me, was his response when he found out the Cultists knew Phatt’s role. This just doesn’t sound like a Cultist to me. The are other reasons I mentioned before are his participation in the Day 1 Bandwagon, stepping out of the game (Aonar might step out when playing as an eliminator, but I doubt Wonko who hasn’t been an eliminator yet would) and his cooperation with Phatt. Between all of this I just don’t think he is the source of the leak or a Cultist. Next I looked if Phatt leaked it himself. This didn’t add up either. Phatt had time to look over his PMs with Winter and check if he leaked the PMs himself. If he found that he did indeed accidentally leak it himself, I am sure he would of told the other Elantrins and we would of heard of it here. For those reasons, I strongly suspect Zas as the leak and a Cultist. This brings me to another point which I don’t believe we have discussed. We assume that people are harmless if they have Hoed. What happens if Elantris is restored? I haven’t read Elantris in a while, but wouldn’t the people with Hoed be restored? Ostrich I couldn’t find a single instance of Ostrich posting in the forum even after we lynched not one but two lurkers. I also saw another player (I think Wilson said this, but I am not sure) saying they have seen him active in PMs. This is a problem and I honestly don’t think we will get Ostrich to post unless he is on the brink of being lynched. Other players have pointed this out, but I figured I should point it out as well in the hope Ostrich will come participate. Alvron Alvron seemed suspicious to me from very early on for me for a couple reasons. His activity: He has made posts, but virtually all of his posts have been of little help. The only posts that really have an substance is his analysis of Pirates, Lovers, or the Gyorn/Odiv/Convert. I have seen maybe one post where he is contributing to the search for Cultists. This post seems suspect to me because it really isn't helping the search for Cultists much. He threw out a couple opinions on one person with very little analysis or supporting evidence. I did collect all of his posts, but it seemed crazy to post all of those quotes here. His voting record: The first time he votes it is the first vote on Maillw which then turns into a bandwagon. I don’t think we can blame him for the bandwagon on Maill, but maybe that needs analysis by someone who is better at analyzing then I am. The second time he votes it is for Winter after Winter has already came out and said she was a Cultist. Basically making his vote pointless. That being said I don’t know if he is a Cultist. He is simply near the top of my suspect list which is why I included him. Bort And lastly Bort… During my reread he constantly jumped out at me. The first place I will start at is when he voted for me in Day 2. and then thirty-five minutes later posted this Why the time delay there? Why not simple say your concerns in a single post. It almost seems like you posted then went and asked advice from a doc or something. This would seem very off to me even if I wasn't the person he was voting for. The next reason is I think he is the Cultist Prince. His timezone and schedule matches up with the Cultist Prince. The times the Cultist Prince did or didn’t use their powers match up with times Bort could of performed it. The only time the Prince power wasn’t used was when Bort was in Elantrin and everyone in Elantrin had voted. The next reason is how vocal he was about “protecting” the Duke/Duchess’s identity. Nothing I have seen gives any proof that he actually knows the Duke/Duchess’s identity yet he is saying he is protecting it. This seems to me like a Cultist move to try to build trust. The next reason is his vote on Phatt. Why would he vote on Phatt when Winter was voting there potentially turning Phatt into Hoed. This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. Lastly, Winter’s analysis of Bort seems off. Winter almost seems like she is defending Bort here. Maybe I am wrong here, but when I reread Winter’s analysis, knowing Winter was a Cultist, it came across as something Winter might try to do to get suspicion off of Bort. I think Bort is going to get scanned while in Elantris so this whole section might be a mute point. Luckat As I am finishing up this post I figured I should include Luckat. She is suspicious to me, but I believe she is a potential Gyorn not Cultist. If I get more time I will do a analysis post on her, but unfortunately I have ran out of time With all of that said I am not sure who out of all of these I will vote for this cycle. I would like to get other peoples opinions on what I have posted and then I will probably make a vote. Edit - fixed some spacing.
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Wow a lot has happened. I have been fairly sick as I said in my last post and it has pretty much knocked me on my chull for the last 3 days I am finally starting to feel better and almost am caught up on work so I can pay attention to the game. Winter I was actually believing your changed play style was due to your first time GMing. You actually had me fooled.
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Ok so I have read through the post and I agree with most of the reasons people have put forward for lynching Mailliw. Because of that I am going to put my vote on Mailliw.
