How Fortune works theory

[Brgst13]

My theory is that Fortune is basically the ability to see/manipulate probability.  We have a few examples of using Fortune:

1. Hoid sensing where he needs to be.

2. F-Chromium storing "luck".

3. Renarin and Odium's futures Ishtar.

Each of these can be viewed as an effect of probability.  

1. Hoid can sense where improbable things are possibly happening and go there to either help or prevent its happening.

2. Luck in cards or bones or such is simply having better outcomes with random chance than opponents.  Luck in life can be seen as either avoiding likely negative outcomes or achieving unlikely positive outcomes.  When storing F-chromium you would not be likely to win games of chance, and you would often get caught in the rain.  When tapping it, you would be more likely to fall and land just right to avoid breaking bones.

3. Futuresight simply allows the user to see possibilities.  Renarin sees likely possibilities, while Odium sees a vast array.  So why is Renarin grayed out to Odium?  Simple.  He can change the probability of events by seeing the future, so he makes the predictions based on probability null and void.

Let me know if there are gaping holes in this theory or if it is contradicted elsewhere.

[Quantus he/him]

Not Contradicting, but another datapoint. Atium is specifically a Fortune effect, and was included to demonstrate Fortune specifically:

 

Quote

 

Questioner

So, in Allomancy, most of the metals are in pairs, they're equal and opposite, pushing and pulling, Rioting, Soothing, that kind of thing. The god metals have always-- lerasium and atium, have always struck me as kind of unbalanced in a way. Like, lerasium gives you the power to use all these metals, plus atium being one of them. Is there a reason for that?

Brandon Sanderson

Yes, there is, and it kinda has to do with Snapping and some of the fundamental rules of the Mistborn world and the fact that people have Preservation and Ruin inside of them and all these sorts of things. So, the answer is yes.

Partially, narratively, I built that in partially just 'cause I wanted atium to seem odd in the placement, right, when people got to it it's like "What? Why is this one-- This one doesn't match the others. This doesn't really work." When I was building Mistborn, one of the big things I wanted was this idea of a periodic table that was, kind of a flawed construct, that, as you read the books, you came to understand better and better. And that was something I executed-- I don't think I executed that 100% right, but I'm pleased with the general concept and how it plays out. And so I wanted atium to stick out like a sore thumb.

The other thing is, I knew I needed some good foreshadowing for Fortune, for people being able to kinda see the future or versions of the future, for the whole cosmere to work. And, so, I built in atium specifically to do those things. And I built in lerasium to have, kind of, the ultimate sort of benevolent endowment sort of thing. (Not Endowment the Shard, you know what I mean.) But I also wanted to show these two magics were intrinsically tied together on Scadrial because the way that humankind was created. We're getting into some deep stuff, I'll just leave it there. But that was what was going through my mind as I was building those things all out. 

Oathbringer Chicago signing (Nov. 21, 2017)

 

 

[LewsTherinTelescope]

Eh, I don't think it'll be directly manipulating luck. Feruchemy is very internal, whereas a lot of the things you suggest in #2 are external. Imo, it's related to this:

Quote

alercah

Do regular people in the cosmere have an innate, subconscious ability to read the Spiritual Realm just a little bit, that might manifest as gut instinct or intuition?

Brandon Sanderson

Yes, in the cosmere, there is some validity to "gut" instincts in some people with a closer connection to the Spiritual.

General Reddit 2021 (Jan. 28, 2021)

Essentially, making the "right" or "wrong" decisions by seeming chance, because you're subconsciously tapping into and reading the Spiritual Realm a little bit. Hence things like Hoid, where he's got an idea of where it would be useful to be, but doesn't really know why, he just does.

[+Oltux72 he/him]

 

4 hours ago, Quantus said:

Not Contradicting, but another datapoint. Atium is specifically a Fortune effect, and was included to demonstrate Fortune specifically:

I doubt that, for using Fortune makes you specifically not see the future. The oddity of Hoid being somewhere without knowing the reason or an assassin being sent for Hrathen without knowing that he will turn traitor pretty much precludes seeing it.

Odium also referred to futuresigt and Fortune as two distinct things.

Sanderson needed a way to introduce precognition in general.

4 hours ago, Brgst13 said:

Let me know if there are gaping holes in this theory or if it is contradicted elsewhere.

The problem is that you have two effects you cannot distinguish that way. Do you win the lottery because you knew the numbers or were the numbers drawn because you picked them?

[+Harrycrapper]

1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

 

I doubt that, for using Fortune makes you specifically not see the future. The oddity of Hoid being somewhere without knowing the reason or an assassin being sent for Hrathen without knowing that he will turn traitor pretty much precludes seeing it.

Odium also referred to futuresigt and Fortune as two distinct things.

Sanderson needed a way to introduce precognition in general.

The problem is that you have two effects you cannot distinguish that way. Do you win the lottery because you knew the numbers or were the numbers drawn because you picked them?

I think you're looking at it the wrong way. What Hoid and Odium do are two different ways of using Fortune. Odium uses it to see the possible futures and tries to plot a course to his desired result. I think Hoid lets Fortune guide him and has faith that what it guides him towards is his desired goal. Atium is somewhat of a balance between the two where it both shows you the future and gives you the ability to process that quick enough to achieve the best result. Though it is still influenced by Ruin and guides the user to kill people if they're in a combat situation. 

[+Bzhydack he/him]

17 minutes ago, Harrycrapper said:

I think you're looking at it the wrong way. What Hoid and Odium do are two different ways of using Fortune. Odium uses it to see the possible futures and tries to plot a course to his desired result. I think Hoid lets Fortune guide him and has faith that what it guides him towards is his desired goal. Atium is somewhat of a balance between the two where it both shows you the future and gives you the ability to process that quick enough to achieve the best result. Though it is still influenced by Ruin and guides the user to kill people if they're in a combat situation. 

I dont think Shards use just Fortune, because of their nature. Shards are mainly in Spiritual Realm, where time and space concepts doesnt exist. So they literaly see all (or most of them) possible futures.

Fortune for mortals (in Physical Realm) works more instinctivly - probably all mortals have some minimal amount of Fortune, this is why they are sometimes "lucky" - because Fortune can be (in smaller amounts, mean, not provided directly by Shard) seen as "instinctive Futursight" - man subconcously "feel" nearest future and acts according to this. For example, if mas rolls the dice, he has subconcous glimps of Spiritual Ideal of this dice and knows what number he get. Also, if man will be in bus during crash, he will subconcously know when hide head before hitting at something. etc. Fortune in this case would be link between man's spiritual ideal and his spiritual envirnoment.

Larger and larger amounts of Fortune would effect with wider and longer effect, changing from instinctive usage, to subinstinctive (Atium) to fully controlable.

[Mage he/him]

1 hour ago, Bzhydack said:

I dont think Shards use just Fortune, because of their nature. Shards are mainly in Spiritual Realm, where time and space concepts doesnt exist. So they literaly see all (or most of them) possible futures.

Fortune for mortals (in Physical Realm) works more instinctivly - probably all mortals have some minimal amount of Fortune, this is why they are sometimes "lucky" - because Fortune can be (in smaller amounts, mean, not provided directly by Shard) seen as "instinctive Futursight" - man subconcously "feel" nearest future and acts according to this. For example, if mas rolls the dice, he has subconcous glimps of Spiritual Ideal of this dice and knows what number he get. Also, if man will be in bus during crash, he will subconcously know when hide head before hitting at something. etc. Fortune in this case would be link between man's spiritual ideal and his spiritual envirnoment.

Larger and larger amounts of Fortune would effect with wider and longer effect, changing from instinctive usage, to subinstinctive (Atium) to fully controlable.

Yeah, I like this explaination. If F-Chromium were external luck it wouldn't match with Atium, Hoid, or Renarin. Those are all more internal mini-future sights.

I think tapping F-Chromium wouldn't cause the lottery numbers to be the ones you pick, but would cause you to pick what the lottery numbers will be. It all amounts to the same thing, the difference is whether the world is changed to match you, or you are changed to match the world. Both ultimately make you better off.

[Quantus he/him]

13 hours ago, Mage said:

Yeah, I like this explaination. If F-Chromium were external luck it wouldn't match with Atium, Hoid, or Renarin. Those are all more internal mini-future sights.

I think tapping F-Chromium wouldn't cause the lottery numbers to be the ones you pick, but would cause you to pick what the lottery numbers will be. It all amounts to the same thing, the difference is whether the world is changed to match you, or you are changed to match the world. Both ultimately make you better off.

Agreed.  Especially since Fortune is a Feruchemical trait, which are all Internal/self targeted effects (and traits that are part of the natural existence of the mortals).  And even in Allomancy where external effects are common, its example of Fortune, Atium, is very much still an internally directed effect. 

 

Further on the Tinfoil side, I do think there is another example of Fortune in the Books: