Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: Lion thinks I don't have Warform. .....No he doesn't Edited August 2, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros i mean maybe he does but thats not why hes voting you, specifically
Opal Lion Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: I'll admit its similar to how I PMed TUO in the QF. But this time it's because I suspect a vote double or removal and vote movement can make us lose here Dude. You claimed you used Scholarform to make a warform gem D2 in your PM with me and @Ivory Dragonfly, and that you attuned it N2. If you're the CW, the Elims essentially out themselves for free and then we can take them out like spearing fish in a barrel the next day. We don't lose here. If you're the CW, we go into the Night 7/5, with a successful NK making us 6/5. And then we kill the Elims who revealed themselves trying to go after you. Edited to add: 1 minute ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: i mean maybe he does but thats not why hes voting you, specifically Lion doesn't know what he thinks anymore and is screaming at the walls in his confusion. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA The whole basis for my vote is essentially the timing, the phrasing, and the feel of that PM compared to Vulture's earlier claims. I fully admit I could be wrong and I badly want to be wrong because I don't know anymore and I don't understand anything and nothing makes sense. Going after a claimed warform isn't ideal but if we're working on the 7/5 assumption, we cannot mislynch. If that's the case, going after you is actually the safe play, precisely after how that PM tripped my misgivings about the Heron lynch. ...And now Heron sounds so sus again I'm also tempted to go back to Heron. Why. Y u do dis everyone .___. Edited August 2, 2021 by Opal Lion
Mint Heron Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 ….did Vulture really immediately attune warform? If so, we’re in trouble. I’ve been debating claiming for a very long time (just ask Rhino or Lion), and I think we need to reconsider everything if Vulture is warform. Because I am too. Our two top exe options are literally both warform. And we have about an hour left. And I won’t be back until about 30 minutes before.
Opal Lion Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 Just now, Mint Heron said: ….did Vulture really immediately attune warform? If so, we’re in trouble. I’ve been debating claiming for a very long time (just ask Rhino or Lion), and I think we need to reconsider everything if Vulture is warform. Because I am too. Our two top exe options are literally both warform. And we have about an hour left. And I won’t be back until about 30 minutes before. Are you frithing kidding me
Amber Vulture Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: .....No he doesn't That's what he led with. Saying if I don't have or, I'm an evil liar. If I do, then we don't waste the exe. 1 minute ago, Opal Lion said: Dude. You claimed you used Scholarform to make a warform gem D2 in your PM with me and @Ivory Dragonfly, and that you attuned it N2. If you're the CW, the Elims essentially out themselves for free and then we can take them out like spearing fish in a barrel the next day. We don't lose here. If you're the CW, we go into the Night 7/5, with a successful NK making us 6/5. And then we kill the Elims who revealed themselves trying to go after you. Sure, but now they can say they were just sheeping you. All you're doing is ensuring we have zero chance of getting an elim. I'm sympathetic to your let's not lose mindset, but I'm frustrated that we spent a whole cycle getting in a position to make progress and you're backing out at the last minute. Again. Giving the more coordinated elims the chance to win. * Oh nice, Heron jsut admitted the reason they haven't been moving their votes is because he's Warform. There's your answer
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: Sure, but now they can say they were just sheeping you. All you're doing is ensuring we have zero chance of getting an elim. I'm sympathetic to your let's not lose mindset, but I'm frustrated that we spent a whole cycle getting in a position to make progress and you're backing out at the last minute. Again. Giving the more coordinated elims the chance to win. That's not explaining though- like, why'd you frame your exe as a village lose scenario if it's not?
Opal Lion Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Amber Vulture said: Sure, but now they can say they were just sheeping you. All you're doing is ensuring we have zero chance of getting an elim. I'm sympathetic to your let's not lose mindset, but I'm frustrated that we spent a whole cycle getting in a position to make progress and you're backing out at the last minute. Again. Giving the more coordinated elims the chance to win. Am I, if you're Elim? The logic doesn't check out. We can try to CFD to another target. This would be late cycle madness and guarantee a bad decision. We now know Heron has also claimed warform, so if your claim that we have zero chance of getting an Elim is based off your surviving the lynch, we have the exact same predicament with regard to Heron. And furthermore, Heron was still destined for the lynch one way or another at the point in time you messaged Flamingo. As we both claimed - initially - to be very confident Heron was Evil, ensuring a Heron lynch or a Elim CW on you, if you're Village Vulture, would've been a very good play. If we don't get Heron, we get everyone who CWed. Your PM specifically put us in a position where we have to make the best of worst choices. And if you are Elim, we would have to deal with you one way or another. This cycle, or at the end. My stated position was always to go for you last if you were Elim because we can't afford to mess around this cycle, but once I'm Elim-reading you and you're pushing this strongly for Heron, going Heron is playing to lose. From my perspective, another Elim would be best, but if we can't do that at this stage, going on you is best.
Amber Vulture Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: That's not explaining though- like, why'd you frame your exe as a village lose scenario if it's not? We don't lose. Technically. But if Lion thinks I'm evil, is my Warform flip going to change their mind? They'd just hit me again next round. And then we lose. Or I get NKed and we lose a reliable vote. But that's unlikely now that I'm a mix option. They'll probably go for Flamingo. I believe the elims decided not to play hardball this round because the main candidate was Warform Heron. They could then reevaluate close to rollover and decide whether to move their votes and hammer, or let it through. Either way is fine for them because there's no elim flip. The Vulture CW presents an opportunity to lure votes away. And any vote manipulating they had could have helped, although Heron has an extra life, not a vote removal. I don't think voting for a villager is ever a good idea, so I'm going to oppose this. I'm not going to word that more strongly, because that doesn't help anyone. I'm actually more frustrated that the reason we're here is because this back half of the game has been the same three people talking at each other until eventually this happens
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: We don't lose. Technically. But if Lion thinks I'm evil, is my Warform flip going to change their mind? They'd just hit me again next round. And then we lose. Or I get NKed and we lose a reliable vote. But that's unlikely now that I'm a mix option. They'll probably go for Flamingo. You entirely missed the point of the question. You, in PMs, were concerned about a CW forming on you. Why? The elims hammering v!you is literally the best thing that could have happened? Why frame your exe to Flamingo as one that would make the village lose, when the only outcome is finding most of the elims and your survival? Gah just show us the elim doc already Edited August 2, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros
Oxblood Beagle Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 Well this is just all kinds of what is going on. Should I claim Warform too? And… I’m not going to move just yet, because Heron similarly didn’t respond, but Vulture, how exactly were you accusing me of holding the Scholar Gem and not using it when you created precisely one gemstone with it?
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Should I claim Warform too? If you're actually Warform. But I think this does make you the second Scholar, unless whoever picked it up didn't attune it for some reason. 2 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: And… I’m not going to move just yet, because Heron similarly didn’t respond, but Vulture, how exactly were you accusing me of holding the Scholar Gem and not using it when you created precisely one gemstone with it? I think you can only make one gem with it.
Opal Lion Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: I think you can only make one gem with it. You can research each form once, unless the other Scholar beats you to it. Vulture only made one gem with it because he attuned to a different form N2 and therefore couldn't any longer. 2 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: If you're actually Warform. But I think this does make you the second Scholar, unless whoever picked it up didn't attune it for some reason. You mean... Like a player who was inactive, replaced by a pinch-hitter, and then suddenly started producing > 150 words RP?
Amber Vulture Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: You entirely missed the point of the question. You, in PMs, were concerned about a CW forming on you. Why? The elims hammering v!you is literally the best thing that could have happened? Why frame your exe to Flamingo as one that would make the village lose, when the only outcome is finding most of the elims and your survival? Gah just show us the elim doc already 1. If I have a secret extra life (I'd never mentioned it in thread, just implied) the elims might have failed to NK me. That's good. Now a hit on Kas is guaranteed, which is how they win 2. I don't want to waste an exe. That's what it comes down to. It's hard to get all 7 villagers to agree on one target. It's not guaranteed, and in fact, many villages lose because they split or get hammered. I was hoping for some progress today. Apparently it won't happen Just now, Oxblood Beagle said: Well this is just all kinds of what is going on. Should I claim Warform too? And… I’m not going to move just yet, because Heron similarly didn’t respond, but Vulture, how exactly were you accusing me of holding the Scholar Gem and not using it when you created precisely one gemstone with it? Scholarform is one use only. Otherwise you'd mass produce Warforms
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: Like a player who was inactive, replaced by a pinch-hitter, and then suddenly started producing > 150 words RP? ...Yeah. Like that. Ah. Edit: 3 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: 1. If I have a secret extra life (I'd never mentioned it in thread, just implied) the elims might have failed to NK me. That's good. Now a hit on Kas is guaranteed, which is how they win 2. I don't want to waste an exe. That's what it comes down to. It's hard to get all 7 villagers to agree on one target. It's not guaranteed, and in fact, many villages lose because they split or get hammered. I was hoping for some progress today. Apparently it won't happen That- that- still dodges the question like alright something is weird here but I sure as heck aint tying it at less than the elim team's number :P. Edited August 2, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros
Opal Lion Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: 2. I don't want to waste an exe. That's what it comes down to. It's hard to get all 7 villagers to agree on one target. It's not guaranteed, and in fact, many villages lose because they split or get hammered. I was hoping for some progress today. Apparently it won't happen But this still doesn't make sense. An exe on you that lures the Elims out of hiding and one that you survive? That's not a wasted exe. That's hella informationally powerful. That's more Progression than any Edgedancer has. That's one hell of an edge.
Oxblood Beagle Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: Scholarform is one use only. Otherwise you'd mass produce Warforms Yes, but your argument for Elim-Scholar-Beagle was that you didn’t see me/anyone trying to create a Warform D2. (I assume multiple Scholars creating the same form RNG’s it.) And then you ejected from the form N2. So what did you see?
Amber Vulture Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 (edited) I'd suggest a CW on Beagle, but as I've repeatedly said, you can't change targets unless you do the work earlier in the cycle ensuring you'll have other villagers come support it. Our three votes are meaningless unless they're supported by the mid-actives. It's just poor people management to switch 6 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: But this still doesn't make sense. An exe on you that lures the Elims out of hiding and one that you survive? That's not a wasted exe. That's hella informationally powerful. That's more Progression than any Edgedancer has. That's one hell of an edge. It's useless because they're all going to day they were sheeping you. Any last minute votes will now come with the explanation that they were confused by all this. You're the face of this, now, not them. I don't see how you're getting any value from this. And Rhino, you're suggesting voting a villager over hitting someone I think is evil. You're suggesting wasting three days of effort. These games aren't won like this, they're won by hitting elims when you can. Now next round, people will say we'll my top sus is Heron still... and then they're untouchable because we can't afford the mix on a Warform Edit: Beagle, I just saw no one made anything when I made Warform. And Heron, I suspect a hammer is coming. It always does Edited August 2, 2021 by Amber Vulture
Mint Heron Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 Are we sure that this isn't just e!Vulture claiming this to try and make sure that no exe happens on them? I don't see why they would be worried about that, with only 3 votes on them so far, and plus this claim supposedly happened way back around D2. But perhaps they're not actually warform and they're simply trying to get an exe to move away from them? Because I agree with Lion and Rhino, it makes no sense for Vulture to be so afraid of an exe hitting them if they'd just survive it. It would give valuable information about who the elims might be. Granted, we can't really do that now because the cat is out of the bag, but still.
Oxblood Beagle Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Are we sure that this isn't just e!Vulture claiming this to try and make sure that no exe happens on them? I don't see why they would be worried about that, with only 3 votes on them so far, and plus this claim supposedly happened way back around D2. But perhaps they're not actually warform and they're simply trying to get an exe to move away from them? Because I agree with Lion and Rhino, it makes no sense for Vulture to be so afraid of an exe hitting them if they'd just survive it. It would give valuable information about who the elims might be. Granted, we can't really do that now because the cat is out of the bag, but still. Same could be said for you, Heron. Just a little later to the punch. 2 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: Edit: Beagle, I just saw no one made anything when I made Warform. So, did you not see anyone else try and make a Warform? Then where did the whole Beagle-held-the-Scholar-Gem story come from???
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: It's useless because they're all going to day they were sheeping you. Any last minute votes will now come with the explanation that they were confused by all this. You're the face of this, now, not them. I don't see how you're getting any value from this. And Rhino, you're suggesting voting a villager over hitting someone I think is evil. You're suggesting wasting three days of effort. These games aren't won like this, they're won by hitting elims when you can. Now next round, people will say we'll my top sus is Heron still... and then they're untouchable because we can't afford the mix on a Warform That wasn't the case when you sent your PM though. You sending the PM in the first place is what's sus, anything after that isn't really relevant. If you're truly v!Warform who thought the elims would CW onto you, you would have kept your mouth shut in the first place. Which villager am I suggesting voting? I don't know what you're talking about here, but I don't want you framing that I (or anyone else) is fighting against a village win here It's all just reads and I have zero clue what's going on and don't want this to get heated. If we all switch to Heron/Vulture, they survive, the elims kill, we get another turn of breathing room. I don't see how this can end well in the next 18 minutes any other way. But we'd need a large voting block, large enough to void a hammer.
Opal Lion Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: It's useless because they're all going to day they were sheeping you. Any last minute votes will now come with the explanation that they were confused by all this. You're the face of this, now, not them. I don't see how you're getting any value from this. But that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that Village you had no reason to message Flamingo, given you no longer had credence Flamingo was Evil. I'm saying Village you had every reason to keep quiet, precisely because of your reasoning. That once this is out of the bag, this can't bait Elims. You keep construing me as saying that Elims who go on you now will reveal themselves. But that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that Village Vulture had no reason to talk to Flamingo and pressure Flamingo with all that talk about losing the game. Village Vulture doesn't care if the CW goes to him. Acting in this manner would defeat what Village Vulture wanted. I'm saying that before that fateful PM message, we had a win-win scenario - a grinch on top suspect Heron, or a CW on you, which, according to your warform claim, you would survive, neatly revealing the Elim team. I'm saying that this PM message deliberately created a situation in which the win-win scenario wouldn't happen. If you succeeded, it would force a Heron grinch, removing the option in which the Elim team does show their hand, and we kill them tomorrow. The fact you deliberately closed off that option is suspicious.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 @Opal Lion @Emerald Falcon @Oxblood Beagle @Onyx Flamingo I think it's come to the point where it doesn't really matter what Heron is or what Vulture is- the point here is that we can't exe a villager today and the elims can easily hammer with where the votes are now It's gotten to the point where you probably should put a vote on Heron to purposely use their extra life to avoid a loss here- staying where you isn't going to help and Heron is the largest wagon atm. At this point reads aren't really a concern because there isn't time Honestly @Mint Heron too, a self vote might seem counterintuitive but if it makes us not lose it's not a bad thing
Opal Lion Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: @Opal Lion @Emerald Falcon @Oxblood Beagle @Onyx Flamingo I think it's come to the point where it doesn't really matter what Heron is or what Vulture is- the point here is that we can't exe a villager today and the elims can easily hammer with where the votes are now It's gotten to the point where you probably should put a vote on Heron to purposely use their extra life to avoid a loss here- staying where you isn't going to help and Heron is the largest wagon atm. At this point reads aren't really a concern because there isn't time Honestly @Mint Heron too, a self vote might seem counterintuitive but if it makes us not lose it's not a bad thing Sigh. Vulture, Heron, under extreme protest.
Amber Vulture Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 Of course I know the villager, he is me - Vulture Obi Wan Here's the VC from Heron I was looking at. Heron (7): Mouse, Vulture, Scorpion, Beagle, Rhino, Dragonfly, Lion Vulture (2): Falcon, Heron Weasel (2): Flamingo Flamingo (1): Tuatara Assuming Mouse, Beagle, Falcon, Heron, Weasel are evil. Tuatara and Flamingo are wasted village votes. So with hammer-style movements the elims can make it: Heron (5): Vulture, Scorpion, Rhino, Dragonfly, Lion Vulture (5): Falcon, Heron, Beagle, Weasel, Mouse Weasel (2): Flamingo Flamingo (1): Tuatara Thats a tie and a waste, but I didn't know if any had vote manipulating powers. If they do, they get the exe. It's a dud because Warform. Assuming they don't all decide on a different target, like Flamingo, which I considered unlikely but possible, given the prep work done. Anyway, then the NK, or more likely, they then use Malibu to body hop. That causes enough confusion, using the vote splitting strategy I discussed with you a whole ago, that they get another hammer in and win. Or they use vote manip again the next day to win. I haven't been keeping track of who has extra votes, but I don't want to be relying on a 6-5 majority at lylo. That's where I'm coming from. That's why I'm concerned.
Mint Heron Posted August 2, 2021 Posted August 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: Honestly @Mint Heron too, a self vote might seem counterintuitive but if it makes us not lose it's not a bad thing I'd much rather try and get people to move to Vulture. I feel really confident that they're an elim, because of all of the reasons I've suspected them so far, plus the fact that they had no reason to try and claim to Flamingo when they could've tanked an exe and possibly caught some elims. Sigh. I understand Lion, but can't say I'm pleased. But this is better than a villager death. See you all tonight.
Recommended Posts