Quick Fix 50: Return to Tar Valon

[James Brafin he/him]

IT LITERALLY SAYS DON'T @ ME IN THE POST YOU JUST QUOTED REEEEE
ahem

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

 - EoD2 he was A-Okay with being tied with striker. just read through that. that would have guaranteed at least one Elim death if they were both Elims.

This, here. striker+Dannex!elim makes no sense with this knowledge.
Also, this is a good reminder to me to deep-dive you tonight; My read on you has shifted pretty hard since I last talked to you.

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Warder be like "hit me baby one more time"

Edited January 17, 2021 by James Brafin

[Guest Breaker]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Warder be like "hit me baby one more time"

STOP TRYING TO POCKET ME

(MAY I HAVE A HIGH-FIVE, PLEASE?)

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

IT LITERALLY SAYS DON'T @ ME IN THE POST YOU JUST QUOTED REEEEE
ahem

This, here. striker+Dannex!elim makes no sense with this knowledge.
Also, this is a good reminder to me to deep-dive you tonight; My read on you has shifted pretty hard since I last talked to you.

Oh. Somehow I'd missed that. Yeahhhh I guess I don't really blame you. I managed to tunnel on Dannex... and then be convinced not to... and then tunnel on him again... (sorry Dannex!!!). 

Does this mean Burnt is an elim? I thought that was what that meant but then I also thought for sure Dannex was elim so idk how great my judgement on that is.

Edit: though I should really have learned not to trust my judgement a long time ago, tbf. Just ask Gears. Or Matrim.

Edited January 17, 2021 by Quinn0928

[Illwei]

Just now, Breaker said:

STOP TRYING TO POCKET ME

[highfive] Breaker [/highfive]
I'm just that good

[James Brafin he/him]

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

Oh. Somehow I'd missed that. Yeahhhh I guess I don't really blame you. I managed to tunnel on Dannex... and then be convinced not to... and then tunnel on him again... (sorry Dannex!!!). 

Does this mean Burnt is an elim? I thought that was what that meant but then I also thought for sure Dannex was elim so idk how great my judgement on that is.

I'm pretty sure Town can have two brown. Again, I can't say more right this second, but it has to do with game mechanics and such. I'll get back to you.

[Guest Breaker]

If you want me to change my vote this round, you have to go through Gears to do it. I promised. 

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, James Brafin said:

I'm pretty sure Town can have two brown. Again, I can't say more right this second, but it has to do with game mechanics and such. I'll get back to you.

I mean, yeah that makes sense to me. Brown is... arguably less powerful (in theory) for village than it is for elims, since elims can share the information they learn with their teammates, which means it has more of an effect. Especially combined with info that said teammates collect, and what they already know about their team. 

Of course, now that we have two outed Browns, at least one of whom is (now, apparently) confirmed village, that's a bit different. Also I guess we know who the Yellow(s) are protecting tonight, huh.

[Guest Breaker]

I’m not so sure there are two yellows, which is concerning. Honestly, my prevailing theory is that the silent player is an inactive yellow :/

I realize it’s a theory that ignores base rates, but it feels weird to have only one doctor in a 19-man

[dannnex male]

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

 - EoD2 he was A-Okay with being tied with striker. just read through that. that would have guaranteed at least one Elim death if they were both Elims.

Oh hey that is a good point. Illwei’s doing a better job of protecting me than I am. 

[Illwei]

Striker pt. 2: Everyone who has mentioned him.

Archer:

Spoiler

On 1/14/2021 at 10:45 AM, Archer said:

StrikerEZ

Places a poke vote first post in

On 1/15/2021 at 0:53 PM, Archer said:

-Striker completely ignored my poke vote, which tells me nothing. 

Second post: acknoledges it,  does nothing.

James:

Spoiler

On 1/14/2021 at 6:40 PM, James Brafin said:

Okay, I'm here I'm caught up I can't breathe good night y'all move like a freaking blue hedgehog

Really sus of Conden's behavior right now, will explain in a min when I do my big "Dannex + Conden" post and am not summarizing

Liranil pinged me with their re-entry, don't like, no FoS yet but I'm keeping an eye there.

Quinn might have setup knowledge? Unsure, definitely second-guessing that but throwing it out there

So much dumb fluff because I'm a dumb. Sorry, all.

Striker's first post is just weird. Prob NAI, but it's odd.

Okay, time to get busy, wall is 100% incoming so just hold on to your hats/hair/horses.

Acknoledges a bad feeling about Striker's first post, but doesn't do anything with it. marks it NAI.

7 hours ago, James Brafin said:

Dice Striker

Votes on Striker after both Mat and I have placed our votes (not in that order)

7 hours ago, James Brafin said:

NO WAIT SHOOT I DID HAVE A REASONING FRICK I'M DUMB
I'll explain it, if you need me to, or you can just trust me. 

@TJ Shade Dice Striker

Mat calls him out (jokingly) for being a hypocrite. He then....
 - Says that he does have reasoning for voting striker?
 - then...switched to Matrim???

7 hours ago, James Brafin said:

I realized that likely Dannex was being protected with a vote tamper, and I was hoping that a Striker flip would provide more information than a Dannex flip. It's moot now, as the wagon is too large.  But yeah.

Explains this switch as him not wanting to vote on Striker because...the wagon. got. big enough. at. three people. Me, Mat, him.
 - Vote on wagon because it'd be better
 - wait no people are actually voting! not good for death anymore!!!!

?????

6 hours ago, James Brafin said:

Liranil, might I make a suggestion? Shoot in Dice, Archer?

Edit: Freaking ninjas
Not Breaker, Gears will just protect.
I like Ash okay, but I don't have a firm read. I'd avoid this, but I wouldn't say no either.
Striker feels like a bad idea with he amount of lurking.

Discourages shooting striker, encourages Ash.

Wants Mat or Archer to die, doesn't give any reasoning.

6 hours ago, James Brafin said:

I'm getting the vibe you missed the post where I realized I'd been a fool in grammar.

Also, we all need to agree right now if this is gonna work. I'm seeing a lot of Oks with Ash, I say we hit them. Dice Ash

I swear to all the Cosmere, y'all had better back me up on this or I'm going to look a fool.

Edit: The ninjas I swear

follows striker onto ash right away. no "oops this wagon is actually taking off" for Ash, no siree.

Conclusion?

As much as I feel like a few of his past actions have been incredibly towny, I can't exactly ignore the parts that don't just because I wanna :P.

Burnt:

Spoiler

On 1/14/2021 at 8:18 PM, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Okey, so, i'll, take notes specifically on those two then cool.

Well, nothing like diving headfirst into the deep end to work out all the nooks and crannies of the environment here!  Probably a little culture shock lol

Not really an interaction worth noting, but a response to Striker.

Unknown Order

Spoiler

On 1/14/2021 at 10:54 PM, The Unknown Order said:

Mild Elim: James, Dan-

Null: Gears, Ashbringer, Lotus, Archer, Shard of Reading, Striker, -nex, Flyingbooks, Devotary, Kings.

Slight Village: Matrim, Breaker, Liranil, Burnt, Illwei, Condensation.

Very Village: Quinn.

Pure Village: The Unknown Order. 

Marks Striker Null. Not really AI as he hadn't been talking all that much.

Breaker

Spoiler

On 1/15/2021 at 8:18 AM, Breaker said:

For the proper spelling of ‘Murica, and, for that matter, because I kinda felt like it from last game. 
I’m really not taking night 1 that seriously, because I’m bad at reads. So I’m having some fun, playing a gambit, and then I’m going to pad the vote of whoever is in first so they don’t tie. *glares menacingly at Striker*

Jokingly shades striker for splitting the vote

6 hours ago, Breaker said:

...this is actually a good enough point to put Striker on my radar. Thanks, Dice! 

Acknowledges mat's point about Striker being Contradictory

6 hours ago, Breaker said:

Striker's OK to Vigilante-kill. I was gonna suggest an inactive or near-inactive. Except Burnt :3

Edit: Vote count? I dunno what Dannex and Ash are at...

Says he's okay with killing Striker. compares to inactive.

Quinn

Spoiler

7 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Woah woah woah where did this come from??? Why are we last-minute switching to inactives AGAIN? that didn't exactly turn out great last cycle. Also it worries me that this keeps happening to protect Dannex. I'm feeling quite comfortable with my vote on him at this point.

Defends Striker by calling him an inactive (which I think was wrong. He didn't have 100+ posts like me, James, or Breaker, but...20 posts is a pretty normal amount, and that's what Lotus, him, liranil, them had.)

7 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

He's... posted like twice this cycle, right? That's about as inactive as you can get in this game. Anyway I meant "relative inactive." Someone who wasn't involved in the whole mess from last cycle. This just feels like deflecting suspicion and trying to focus on people who we really have nothing against.

Edit: No can we please not do this again??? We always regret ties, every single time, and yet we keep doing them anyway! We can pursue suspicions of Striker and/or Matrim next cycle, but for now they're just distractions from the whole Dannex-Burnt-Lotus mess that's going on that we really should deal with first.

 

7 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Yes exactly thank you! First Lotus and now Striker. Not having a counter-train to Dannex would be concerning, yeah, but that doesn't mean we should just up and start one for no discernible reason!

I- it- "yeah, danex not having a counterwagon is kiiiinda worrying but that doesn't mean that we should make one" ?????????

6 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Ash because I always kill Ash if I can

Why are Striker and Breaker even in the pool? Striker, all we have is vague gut (which is the reason we killed Reading--that turned out sooo well) and Breaker... I thought we were reading him as vil? 

I know I'm biased because it's my gut, but I gave reasoning why I thought reading was village, there was none for Striker. I also gave a few reasons but that's fine.

Also "we shot someone last cycle, and they were vil" is a stupid reason not to shoot again. feels like a weak half-defense.

6 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

*rubs eyes* nobody has explained to me yet why it's a good idea to kill Striker. Last cycle there was a fair bit of agreement that Reading was mildly sus, so Liranil killed him. This cycle there appears to be, for some reason, a fair bit of agreement that Striker is mildly sus. Clearly a fair bit of agreement that someone is mildly sus is not a good reason to shoot them in the head, given that the last time we did that we lost a vil Yellow!

Wait no this was the post that I was supposed to point that out in. Weak defense of striker in "it didn't work last time" like it's D2 with no flips, a lot of what we have is gut. Liranil's job was to basically shoot people that were suspicious but not likely to get shreked. so yeah. Striker.

Also didn't offer up an alternative to striker, just argued against.

6 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Okay, so who do you think we should exe?

Puts striker slightly in the spotlight, this is what makes me rethink quinn

6 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

I mean, I kinda told him to do that lol but yeah, makes sense. I'm not super concerned about Ash atm but Illwei and Mat are both pinging me super hard for just... randomly throwing out votes with no given reasoning? and not just because a couple of those votes were on me. James I think is village, just because of the amount of effort he's putting into solving and the various controversial stances he's come up with, but admittedly that could also be a playstyle thing.

Agrees with Striker about me and Mat but doesn't vote.

Main thing about quinn that makes me think not is when she asks Striker who he's rather kill, but that's not a big thing, and...still something I would do to a teammate.

Matrim

Spoiler

7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You wanna switch back to Quinn with me?  

Actual reasoning behind the Striker exe would be good, cause currently it's just not to exe Dannex :P.

On striker when he said this.

7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I just this makes no sense

Edit: I'm gonna go eat breakfast now don't go too crazy in the next 15 minutes :P.

Some response to striker or something? idk. had notes on this i think before but-

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I've already stated my suspicion on Quinn (and twas the first to do so) in my analysis post last night that no one seemed to have read :P. My vote had been on her for the majority of the cycle until I put it on Striker, now that Quinn is actually possible I feel much better about that. It's no jokesheep. 

Switched to Quinn because I did, and he felt more confident about this.

Note: Striker does not hop on Quinn either like he did Liranil. Instead he makes Ash a wagon

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You're not (at least from me). it was an attempt not to kill Dannex. You don't have any votes on you rn so you're fine  

Again the randomcounterwagons are cause I don't want to exe Dannex

 

No we are not bonded

EDIT:

I don't really love how much I'm sheeping Illwei, though our reads are so similar I don't know how to not to :P.

Assures Striker that he's fine.

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Striker: Why is everyone killing Dannex that makes no sense

Also Striker: I want to exe one of the three other people defending Dannex

and this cycle is longer than yesterdays lol

Points out Striker's blatant contradictions

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

my goodness how many times to i have to say the reasoning was to not kill dannex

Edit:

Liranil Striker wasn't suspected I dont think

Tells liranil not to kill striker? unclear.

Mat was fine with hopping on Striker, and not terribly opposed to Liranil shooting him. still a little resistance, but waiting for response from mat on if I missed something here (context?)

Gears:

Spoiler

7 hours ago, Gears said:

Danex's Liranil vote. It jumped off flawed reasoning, engaged in a logical fallacy, and screamed indecisiveness. In fact, because 1. I see no case for Striker, 2. I genuinely suspect Danex, and 3. I don't want to let roshambo dictate my actions, I'm re-voting Danex. @Breaker, if you don't want me to do this, you have to beat me in a roll off or another roshambo game. If I win, you have to vote Danex too. Deal?

Yes, explain. Reasonless votes automatically demote you.

Points out there's no reasoning on Striker

6 hours ago, Gears said:

That is useless. 1. I am a Warder. I will survive and this will give no information. 2. I am not one of the major suspects. Perhaps kill a person under fire, such as Striker, Archer, Condensation. The only reason I see for your suspicion on me is that you dislike me telling roles what to do. I do that every single game, regardless of alignment. Get over your pet peeve and think rationally. [In retrospect, this is a bit harsh. Please do not take offence. I mean no harm]

Puts striker in a kill pool

Nothing that is AI for gears in my opinion, but kiiinda strange to me that he puts Striker in the PoE for the green shot when he doesn't suspect him apparently. :/.

Danex

Spoiler

7 hours ago, Dannex said:

Sighhhhh

Actually I’m not super opposed to a me shrek now. Because of the reveal that there’s another brown, I very much doubt the other one is the same alignment as me. So when I flip Vil, Lotus, you have to out your bondmate, they are almost certainly an Elim. If lotus doesn’t talk, then lotus is also an Elim. So this is actually a very useful info kill.

Maybe we should force a tie, so we have one shrek for info (me) and one shrek for suspicions (idk striker maybe).

Encourages a tie on him and striker- reaaally strange move when just bussing striker would have given him enough towncred.

7 hours ago, Dannex said:

Matrim no

thats a horrible plan

Remove both browns in one shrek

no

we could tie me with someone actually suspicious, like striker or archer.

again, the tie.

6 hours ago, Dannex said:

I vote for either a Striker, Burnt (if you don’t shrek me), or Archer Green Kill. 

When I flip Vil, y’all should put suspicion on Burnt and/or Lotus. I doubt both browns are vil. 

Suggests killing Striker even if he dies. would be dumb move of elim to make

OKAY I'M FINALLY AT THE BOTTOM THANK GOD and some of the reasoning isn't all there, sorry for the IIOA in that case. now for thoughts.

People who interacted not at all:

 - Connie
 - Kings_way
 - Lotus
 - Books
 - Devotary

If I had to pick one of these to be an Elim with Striker, I'd probably pick Lotus or Kings_way. Books isn't like this normally, (in elim games), and I think that a newer Elim would be more likely to try and just avoid their mates in thread.

Of the people with interactions:

Not likely mates In my opinion because that might be kinda making stupid decisions: Danex, Mat, Breaker,
Couuuuuld be? nothing incredibly incriminating yet but also in isolation things can look weird: Gears, Burnt, Archer
Maybe more likely than the rest of these guys and i need to make this title longer so it'll fit: Quinn, JAMES??????, order

I really think I have to be missing someone? lmk or something.

---

Hmmm completely off topic

We know there's two browns, and some people think that one of them is an Elim. There's also been talk of two greys possibly: one on each side. A white flipped on the Elims, but do you guys think that village also has a white?

Setup spec is like, basically pointless though :P.

Edited January 17, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential she/her]

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

We know there's two browns, and some people think that one of them is an Elim. There's also been talk of two greys possibly: one on each side. A white flipped on the Elims, but do you guys think that village also has a white?

I mean, if I were to enter into role speculation I'd say that I wouldn't be surprised if one of the less powerful scanning roles, like White or Red, was only present on the elim team. But I also wouldn't be surprised if there were two of each, one elim or one village, or even if there were three of one of them. So I guess you're... probably right that this is basically pointless. 

Edit: and no @Illwei before you say anything I'm not going to respond to your suspicion of me, because there's... not much I can say, and really I don't blame you. I did high-key defend Striker last cycle, and I definitely tunneled on Dannex, and I was wrong on the first count and almost certainly wrong on the second count, unless Striker was a very elaborate bus which I doubt. I'd offer to roleclaim but my role is unimportant enough that I doubt it would help.

Edit edit:

Me: I'm not going to respond to your suspicion of me. 
Also me: *immediately responds to your suspicion of me.*

Edited January 17, 2021 by Quinn0928

[dannnex male]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Danex:

  Hide contents

Encourages a tie on him and striker- reaaally strange move when just bussing striker would have given him enough towncred.

again, the tie.

Suggests killing Striker even if he dies. would be dumb move of elim to make

@James Brafin is this enough proof for village!me? This plus everything else should be enough to clear me.

[Guest Breaker]

Upvoted for thoroughness, Illwei. That’s a lot to consider, and I appreciate the effort. I’m kinda struggling to put together big stuff like that so far, but it’s good for me to see what it’s like for when I’m more experienced. Kinda makes me wanna be more serious in this game, ngl 

I guess I’m concerned about our position in the game. It seems we’re down two power roles, and we don’t even know if we’ve got a yellow left. 

[+Lotus she/her]

Hello I have returned. Anyone mind giving me a TL:DR of the last 7 hours?

[Illwei]

Just now, Breaker said:

I guess I’m concerned about our position in the game. It seems we’re down two power roles, and we don’t even know if we’ve got a yellow left. 

Who else commented on yellows and protects?

I think that with the whole warder mechanic, there wouldn't be more than one yellow. Warders have an extra life, and then they can protect if their Aes is attacked once without dying even after that (or...before :P)

My question is I guess only relevant if Gears and Breaker are Elims, tbh. so- :P.

I just have trouble believing that RNG had the audacity to put Gears and Breaker together, but not me with Burnt ;-;.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I just have trouble believing that RNG had the audacity to put Gears and Breaker together, but not me with Burnt ;-;.

Well, but me and you and Lotus and Lum are all the same person, remember? so technically RNG put you and Burnt together by putting Lotus and Burnt together!

[Illwei]

12 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Hello I have returned. Anyone mind giving me a TL:DR of the last 7 hours?

Posts I think u should read :P. (did I just quote my posts? why yes.:P ) Don't bother opening spoilers if you don't have time, they're just to show thoughts.

Spoiler

this is just post count, can ignore xD

Spoiler

5 hours ago, Illwei said:

As the cycle ended I got a feeling in the pit of my stomach, that could only be described as....
Hunger. Guys I haven't eaten in a while that needs to happen

Sad ash flipped gree-... ... oooooorange?

Much thanks to Liranil for killin' Striker <3 you will be missed ;-;.

I don't have much to say right now because I just put breakfast on the stove, and I don't wanna burn it.

Wasted an action last cycle because I thought that Danex was going to die :/. kiiiinda confused on how Ash picked up that fast. yeah. Ash you gots a nice little deathstreak now though, wouldn't wanna break that now, would we? :P.

  Reveal hidden contents

Illwei....................... 154
Breaker................... 119
James.....................107
Quinn......................103
Matrim......................78
Dannex.....................75
Liranil........................45
Burnt........................39
Ashbringer.................32
Connie......................27
Lotus........................25
Gears.......................23
Reading....................16
Striker......................15
Books......................13
Devotary....................6
Order.........................5
Archer.......................3
Kings_way.................2

Okay my breakfast is cooked we're all good.

Gots some thinking to do. Didn't go over the last cycle yet but I plan to look in between at the whole danex discussion. who wasn't talking, who was avoiding it, yadda yadda. Wish we could have switched the vote over to striker but it is what it is.

 

Color-coded flips

Spoiler

5 hours ago, Illwei said:

Oh hey! we have flips! I can do...whatever this useless thing is!

C1:

Lotus (6) : Matrim's Dice, James Brafin, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks42, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (4) : Ashbringer, Breaker, Lotus, Liranil, StrikerEZ, Condensation
Gears (1) : Quinn0928
StrikerEZ (1) : Archer

C2:

Ashbringer (6) : Matrim's Dice, Breaker, StrikerEZ, James Brafin, Illwei, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (5) : Gears, Ashbringer, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Liranil
Quinn0928 (1) : Dannex

I'm going to go back and look at Strikers posts in a minute, but just for people to see. I'll talk about this after I look at striker I think.

 

Striker ISO

Spoiler

3 hours ago, Illwei said:

Striker first pass through: just his posts.

  Reveal hidden contents

Post 1:

  Reveal hidden contents

- Guesses the Elim team numbers (rounds down? He's assuming 4, but we've already agreed on probably 5.)
 - Shades all the players with jumpy votes (I guess I could go back through and find them :P)

Post 2:

  Reveal hidden contents

Context: Burnt asks for a tldr, having just popped up.

The vote was on Connie/Danex I think at this point. Definitely Shades Danex more than connie, low low low key defense on connie? who knows.

Mentions James, doesn't give a read.

Post 4:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 - Village on reading
 - Still incredibly Hedgy on Danex.
 - Makes a tie between Danex and Liranil. (NAI. If Danex was an Elim then Tie at least kills Liranil too. If Danex is Village then two village down.)

 

Post 5:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Didn't realize that they voted on Ash last turn.
 - Village read on Danex

Post 7:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Still village on Danex, Danex still in the lead

Post 9:

  Reveal hidden contents

Lotus gains traction, vote on Danex.

Post 10:

  Reveal hidden contents

More shade on Lotus voters

DAY 2:

Post 1:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Backs up lotus living
 - Starts the concern on Connie's death.

Post 2:

  Reveal hidden contents

 - Still keeps a village read on Danex.
 - Suspicion on James based on Danex vote
 - Suspicion on Mat for CW
 - Suspicion on Illeri for CW
 - Doesn't want Burnt/Lotus to die

Post 3:

  Reveal hidden contents

Again, doesn't wanna kill Danex. this is getting boring :/

Post 4:

  Reveal hidden contents

wants to kill:
 - Illwei
 - James
 - Mat

Parrots my suspicion of ash but this sentence is irrelevant bc striker's ded ;-;

so...my...conclusion here disappeared. 

Uh..

Basically, I think lotus looks suspicious from this. I don't understand the end there. I'm trying to think.

In Day 1, Strike kept a wishy-washy village read on Danex all day. He tried to start up a CW multiple times, but once Lotus was the counterwagon, he suddenly was perfectly fine voting on Danex I...I really have no clue why this is.

Lotus is an Elim, Danex is Village
 - Striker Spent time trying to find a CW to avoid killing danex (pocketing danex)
 - They only have one/two warders, and want to keep them alive to protect their to have a second life in E/lo situations.
 - Striker then wanted to vote on someone else who wasn't lotus once something happened.

Lotus is village, Danex is an Elim
 - Striker didn't want to be on a village CW, for fear of suspicion
 - uh

I got a bit sidetracked sorry. Yeah. I had an original conclusion that made sense but I've been sitting here for an hour trying to remake this post :))))). so.

Overall he's been defensive of Lotus, Lotus/Burnt.

He was trying to start a CW on Danex both days, but...idk.

Coming out of this with sus on Lotus, but I think Danex/Lotus is V/E one way or another, and if Lotus flips E then I'm suspicious of Burnt.

Oh look Quinn posted. I had much better answers but they miraculously dissappeared so here you get this

If we assume the Elims have a brown Ajah, do we assume they value it? This point alone means nothing, and can also be applied to Burnt/Lotus.

Lotus? I started it. What was the D2 wagon? that's right. I tried to start a CW on Striker. Did no one feel the resistance on that one? it was Just me and Mat. Looking for people on danex who shaded the Striker vote even though I had given reasoning the previous day. Please don't ask me to find it ;-;. I don't know if I can ;-;.

So are you saying that the first day it was an Elim and a village? and then D2 it was just the Elim?

1: Scumslips - there has been a total of one (1) scumslip, which was a complete misunderstanding, and has since been cleared up.

2: Risky plans - I really am done saying this, but Villagers are more likely to take risks than Elims. this isn't just his meta. You're of course going to sometimes find the Elims that like being in the spotlight or whatnot, but in general, they're not going to want to put themselves in the spotlight, imo.

3: Aggressiveness - so I'd say that Aggressiveness in general isn't AI, but the Aggressiveness in Danex feels much more of a villager pushing their agenda, not worrying about it because they know that their agenda benefits village. The aggressiveness of an Elim I think would be more aggressive in general tone, to try and fake...whatever about a villager. feelings? not right. confusion? trying to fake hide the lack of confusion within aggression? I don't know what I'm talking about now I think I've gone a bit off on a tangent.

"but the more I've seen the less and less I've thought that."

confbias? maybe just a little?

---

"So you want to kill danex" should be the name of this show here.

You all assume that Danex is an Elim, and so won't talk about other options. It seems you've all locked on your votes. So I'm going to ask, in the interest of discussion: what are the next steps? How does Danex tie into the Elim team, and who are his teammates?

  Reveal hidden contents

 

C1:

Lotus (6) : Matrim's Dice, James Brafin, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks42, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (4) : Ashbringer, Breaker, Lotus, Liranil, StrikerEZ, Condensation
Gears (1) : Quinn0928
StrikerEZ (1) : Archer

C2:

Ashbringer (6) : Matrim's Dice, Breaker, StrikerEZ, James Brafin, Illwei, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (5) : Gears, Ashbringer, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Liranil
Quinn0928 (1) : Dannex

Elim team?
 - Striker: White Ajah
 - Danex: Brown Ajah
 - ???: Grey Ajah
 - ???: Warder?
 - ???: Warder?

If anyone has anything else they'd like to discuss, please. but let's please not throw all the votes on danex and then not talk about it after his flip. if you all are going to assume that he's Elim, then let's look at that for a bit or something. Or let's look at what happens if he flips vil. Or lets look at Lotus/Striker, Connie/Striker. or, me? look at me. idc. :P.

but please, don't just place votes and then go basically silent about actual discussion until 5 minutes before rollover. :P.

 

Striker Pt. 2

Spoiler

25 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Striker pt. 2: Everyone who has mentioned him.

Archer:

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Places a poke vote first post in

Second post: acknoledges it,  does nothing.

James:

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Acknoledges a bad feeling about Striker's first post, but doesn't do anything with it. marks it NAI.

Votes on Striker after both Mat and I have placed our votes (not in that order)

Mat calls him out (jokingly) for being a hypocrite. He then....
 - Says that he does have reasoning for voting striker?
 - then...switched to Matrim???

Explains this switch as him not wanting to vote on Striker because...the wagon. got. big enough. at. three people. Me, Mat, him.
 - Vote on wagon because it'd be better
 - wait no people are actually voting! not good for death anymore!!!!

?????

Discourages shooting striker, encourages Ash.

Wants Mat or Archer to die, doesn't give any reasoning.

follows striker onto ash right away. no "oops this wagon is actually taking off" for Ash, no siree.

Conclusion?

As much as I feel like a few of his past actions have been incredibly towny, I can't exactly ignore the parts that don't just because I wanna :P.

Burnt:

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Not really an interaction worth noting, but a response to Striker.

Unknown Order

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Marks Striker Null. Not really AI as he hadn't been talking all that much.

Breaker

  Reveal hidden contents

Jokingly shades striker for splitting the vote

Acknowledges mat's point about Striker being Contradictory

Says he's okay with killing Striker. compares to inactive.

Quinn

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Defends Striker by calling him an inactive (which I think was wrong. He didn't have 100+ posts like me, James, or Breaker, but...20 posts is a pretty normal amount, and that's what Lotus, him, liranil, them had.)

 

I- it- "yeah, danex not having a counterwagon is kiiiinda worrying but that doesn't mean that we should make one" ?????????

I know I'm biased because it's my gut, but I gave reasoning why I thought reading was village, there was none for Striker. I also gave a few reasons but that's fine.

Also "we shot someone last cycle, and they were vil" is a stupid reason not to shoot again. feels like a weak half-defense.

Wait no this was the post that I was supposed to point that out in. Weak defense of striker in "it didn't work last time" like it's D2 with no flips, a lot of what we have is gut. Liranil's job was to basically shoot people that were suspicious but not likely to get shreked. so yeah. Striker.

Also didn't offer up an alternative to striker, just argued against.

Puts striker slightly in the spotlight, this is what makes me rethink quinn

Agrees with Striker about me and Mat but doesn't vote.

Main thing about quinn that makes me think not is when she asks Striker who he's rather kill, but that's not a big thing, and...still something I would do to a teammate.

Matrim

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On striker when he said this.

Some response to striker or something? idk. had notes on this i think before but-

Switched to Quinn because I did, and he felt more confident about this.

Note: Striker does not hop on Quinn either like he did Liranil. Instead he makes Ash a wagon

Assures Striker that he's fine.

Points out Striker's blatant contradictions

Tells liranil not to kill striker? unclear.

Mat was fine with hopping on Striker, and not terribly opposed to Liranil shooting him. still a little resistance, but waiting for response from mat on if I missed something here (context?)

Gears:

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Points out there's no reasoning on Striker

Puts striker in a kill pool

Nothing that is AI for gears in my opinion, but kiiinda strange to me that he puts Striker in the PoE for the green shot when he doesn't suspect him apparently. :/.

Danex

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Encourages a tie on him and striker- reaaally strange move when just bussing striker would have given him enough towncred.

again, the tie.

Suggests killing Striker even if he dies. would be dumb move of elim to make

OKAY I'M FINALLY AT THE BOTTOM THANK GOD and some of the reasoning isn't all there, sorry for the IIOA in that case. now for thoughts.

People who interacted not at all:

 - Connie
 - Kings_way
 - Lotus
 - Books
 - Devotary

If I had to pick one of these to be an Elim with Striker, I'd probably pick Lotus or Kings_way. Books isn't like this normally, (in elim games), and I think that a newer Elim would be more likely to try and just avoid their mates in thread.

Of the people with interactions:

Not likely mates In my opinion because that might be kinda making stupid decisions: Danex, Mat, Breaker,
Couuuuuld be? nothing incredibly incriminating yet but also in isolation things can look weird: Gears, Burnt, Archer
Maybe more likely than the rest of these guys and i need to make this title longer so it'll fit: Quinn, JAMES??????, order

I really think I have to be missing someone? lmk or something.

---

Hmmm completely off topic

We know there's two browns, and some people think that one of them is an Elim. There's also been talk of two greys possibly: one on each side. A white flipped on the Elims, but do you guys think that village also has a white?

Setup spec is like, basically pointless though :P.

 

 

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Illwei

[Illwei]

33 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Edit: and no @Illwei before you say anything I'm not going to respond to your suspicion of me, because there's... not much I can say, and really I don't blame you. I did high-key defend Striker last cycle, and I definitely tunneled on Dannex, and I was wrong on the first count and almost certainly wrong on the second count, unless Striker was a very elaborate bus which I doubt. I'd offer to roleclaim but my role is unimportant enough that I doubt it would help.

You're suddenly okay just accepting my defense of Danex?

Edited January 17, 2021 by Illwei
SORRY FOR THE DOUBLE PSOTSSTS

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Illwei said:

You're suddenly okay just accepting my defense of Danex?

It makes sense. The alternative is to believe that the whole interaction between Dannex and Striker was an elaborate bus attempt, which is too tinfoily even for my tastes : P

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

It makes sense. The alternative is to believe that the whole interaction between Dannex and Striker was an elaborate bus attempt, which is too tinfoily even for my tastes : P

I was going to say, tinfoil has always seemed to be your favorite snack, so for you to just accept this, when I am still tinfoiling it in the back of my mind, doesn't feel right :P.

Edited January 17, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Illwei said:

I was going to say, tinfoil has always seemed to be your favorite snack, so for you to just accept this, when I am still in new zealand tinfoiling it in the back of my mind, doesn't feel right :P.

I mean, when has my tinfoiling ever gotten me anywhere? In MR46 it lead a mechanically outed elim to survive for like five cycles (hi Gears!) while I mistrusted like three vanilla villagers who were just trying to help me. In LG72 I... I mean I voted Connie, unvoted her, voted her again, unvoted her again, and then voted Dannex who turned out to be the Truthless. In QF49 I died C1 but I definitely had some minor tinfoil to munch on in terms of you being elim (which obviously you weren't). And my other past games were elim games. Basically, tinfoil has proven to be... not great for me or anyone else so I'm trying to avoid it. 

[Guest Breaker]

I don’t like tinfoil. I’d like to think I’m an adherent to statistics and base rates. Base Rate = Basic Fate. 
 

Do people feel that their tinfoil strats  often work out? Serious question, just cuz I’m new

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Breaker said:

Do people feel that their tinfoil strats  often work out? Serious question, just cuz I’m new

No, see my previous post : P I cannot think of a single game when my tinfoil actually worked.

[Guest Breaker]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I was going to say, tinfoil has always seemed to be your favorite snack, so for you to just accept this, when I am still tinfoiling it in the back of my mind, doesn't feel right :P.

Illwei. You’ve put a lot of thought into this, and we need Shrek targets. I’m requesting the professional opinion of Illwei, Inc. 

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Breaker said:

Do people feel that their tinfoil strats  often work out? Serious question, just cuz I’m new

soooooooooo

Tinfoil is okay to use once you have nowhere else to go. We still have places to go, so tinfoiling Danex into an Elim does no good rn. if we get down to like 3 people, and we think they're all village for one reason or another, that's when it's okay to start tinfoiling, imo :P.