Long Game 69: The Politics of the Passions

[Zillah she/her]

The cycle is now closed.

[Zillah she/her]

 

Lord Silberfarben was killed, they were a member of the Loyal campaign Staff.

Day six has begun and will end in approximately 48 hours, on Wednesday September 16th, 0100 UTC

 

Player List

Spoiler

1. Experience - Shard Undercover Emissary
2. Illwei
3. Matrims Dice - Phil Loyal Campaign Staff
4. Lotus - Sunwalker Loyal Campaign Staff
5. TJ Shade - Ylns Loyal Campaign Staff
6. Frozen Mint Loyal Campaign Staff
7. Kynedath - Tktk Undercover Emissary
8. Vapor   Undercover Emissary 
9. Lord Silberfarben Loyal Campaign Staff
10. Elkanah - Lknik (a possible addict)
11. The Young Pyromancer - Mancia Young
12. Ashbringer - Faleast
13. Mist - Tara Night Loyal Campaign Staff
14. Sart the Bard Loyal Campaign Staff
15. Elandera Loyal Campaign Staff

 

[Ashbringer he/him]

That's... interesting.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

...AAAANNNNDDD I got confused about the cycle ending on the 14th, like it said in the time, instead of the 13th, and so forgot to submit an action. Not that it would've mattered.

So, Illwei claimed to be using Survival on Silber, right? That makes me suspect that they might've killed Silber instead, thus trying to clear themselves. However, it could also be Elkanah, not going after ash (protection target) or me (might have survival) and so choosing Silber as the less suspicious.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I... used Survival targeting Illwei. So it's possible whoever it was tried to kill me, it bounced to Illwei, then to Silber.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Hah, that's exactly what I was planning to do. I assume that was because if he was lying and tried to kill you, it would hit him, and if not, someone else who people suspected?

[Ashbringer he/him]

@Illwei, @Elkanah, care to join the party? This is essentially Lylo. What actions did you guys use?

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

@Illwei, @Elkanah, care to join the party? This is essentially Lylo. What actions did you guys use?

Not quite. If someone gets survival/a protect/a rb, they could stop a kill, or someone can get an extra vote to win the 1v1 lynch. Unless the elims win when the factions are even as well? @Zillah. Please answer this quickly, as it'll affect which tables are optimal to pick for me and ash.

And since we know Illwei or Elk are the elim (well, unless Ash pulled a crazy gambit, or becomes suspicious of me over the other person), if we fade the kill, we win.

...you know, part of me is tempted to try to rig things so I can get the solo win again, but that would put winning at risk, and that isn't worth it .

[Illwei]

sorry guys, I thought I sent this last night.

I never said I used Survival onto Silber? @The Young Pyromancer
I, uh, I actually completely forgot to submit an action this cycle. :)))

So, this is probably Lylo, (unless everyone gets survival/sabotage/protection, so no one dies) and I'm going to put my vote on Ash for right now. I've explained before why.

[Elkanah he/him]

I got survival and didn't use it...

I really don't know which of you it is. I still don't think Illwei would have bussed Vapor and Experience the way he did. And I trust Pyro and Ash for about the same reasons. I'll vote Ashbringer @Ashbringer.

Your defense of Kynedath is the only suspicious thing I can think of off the top of my head.

[Ashbringer he/him]

You know, mapping out who used what suspicious abilities would be a lot easier if people used their abilities.

Aaaand now I've got two out of three votes. Great. Well, I have nothing new to add because it seems nobody has anything new to add.

Assuming that every villager is telling the truth, the Elim actually were trying to kill Silber, unless Elim!Illwei actually used her Survival on Silber in which case the kill could have been meant for me. 

Well, Illwei. Open to arguments for others. Did anything remotely interesting happen this night?

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

...If the other villager has gotten deceived by the elim, I'm going to be so mad.

17 hours ago, Elkanah said:

I still don't think Illwei would have bussed Vapor and Experience the way he did.

Knowing Illwei, he might've. His suspicion of Ash instead of you here is really incriminating as well, as is certain other things he's done. It also makes little sense for the elim to kill Silber, so he probably killed Ash and used survival on Silber.

If Ash didn't reveal anything, you or Silber would have been lynched. If Ash is the last elim, that would have won them the game. There was NO REASON for them to reveal, and that CONFIRMS them as village. @Elkanah @Illwei, if Ash was an elim, they'd have had to FOREGO WINNING THE GAME to begin this strategy. If it was some kind of next-level play, it would have to be one where the elims LITERALLY passed over victory to get one of their members removed from suspicion. Like, lynching ME makes more sense than Ash at this point. The elim voting for them makes sense, but villager, PLEASE change your mind.

I am willing to lynch Illwei or Elk.

@Zillah, I need this rules clarification well before the cycle's over. It could very well cost the village the game if you answer it too late for me to write up an argument for picking a certain table, or even if I do get it in time, if the village doesn't see it. Please respond as soon as you can. Thank you.

[Illwei]

Pyro, if you can make a good argument as to why Elk (er, or...you? I guess) Is Elim, then sure, I might switch my vote. for Now, Elk doesn't seem suspicious to me besides his seemingly Half-hearted votes on Kyne, and his claim that he and Kyne had a PM (which he claimed last minute after everyone basically was voting on Kyne already, so, I don't think an Elim would do that?)

The only thing I find kind of suspicious about you, Pyro, is that you seem to be trying to imply that I used Survival on Silber, which Ash jumped on. I never even implied I was going to use survival on Silber, and I'm assuming you added that together because your looking for links between me and Kyne, as he claimed survival onto silber last cycle? So maybe that's not suspicious if I look at it like that? 

If I did use survival, then I would have used it on Ash (which, I mean, since Ash used survival on me, if I did that would actions bounce forever if one of us was targeted with something? or not count at all?) 

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

If Ash didn't reveal anything, you or Silber would have been lynched. If Ash is the last elim, that would have won them the game. There was NO REASON for them to reveal, and that CONFIRMS them as village. @Elkanah @Illwei, if Ash was an elim, they'd have had to FOREGO WINNING THE GAME to begin this strategy. If it was some kind of next-level play, it would have to be one where the elims LITERALLY passed over victory to get one of their members removed from suspicion. Like, lynching ME makes more sense than Ash at this point. The elim voting for them makes sense, but villager, PLEASE change your mind.

Personally I don't agree. We had 6 people left that cycle, one who didn't vote, and three who had basically admitted they were fine with killing Kyne.
  - I don't think that Ash could have gotten enough people on Elk without looking suspicious himself in some way
  - He tried to start a vote on Silber and that didn't pick up, and Maybe he thought that following to Elk would look suspicious.
  - Ash did point out the fact that made Kyne more suspicious, but, I say again, he didn't after that go "so therefore my reasoning about clearing Kyne is wrong and since he's a top suspicion besides that one thing, I'm going to vote on Him" instead waiting until someone else voted, making it probably most likely that Kyne was going to die.
       - This helps clear Ash, but also was noncommital by Ash and didn't solidify Kyne's death at time, so if Kyne wasn't killed then whoopdeedoo, but if he was then Ash was cleared
  - After Kyne is basically dead Ash proceeds to ask him questions that seem helpful but he has no incentive to answer as no matter what his answer he wouldn't be cleared my any of them, and basically have no value to the village, as Actions from N1/2/3 are Irrelevant this far into the game, especially when we learned that using an Action doesn't mean you can't submit a kill.

Basically I don't find anything that you find clearing of Ash to be clearing.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I've been writing up a longer analysis-y post, but I figured I should respond to this while I have more of a chance. (Spoilered quote for length.)

Spoiler

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Pyro, if you can make a good argument as to why Elk (er, or...you? I guess) Is Elim, then sure, I might switch my vote. for Now, Elk doesn't seem suspicious to me besides his seemingly Half-hearted votes on Kyne, and his claim that he and Kyne had a PM (which he claimed last minute after everyone basically was voting on Kyne already, so, I don't think an Elim would do that?)

The only thing I find kind of suspicious about you, Pyro, is that you seem to be trying to imply that I used Survival on Silber, which Ash jumped on. I never even implied I was going to use survival on Silber, and I'm assuming you added that together because your looking for links between me and Kyne, as he claimed survival onto silber last cycle? So maybe that's not suspicious if I look at it like that? 

If I did use survival, then I would have used it on Ash (which, I mean, since Ash used survival on me, if I did that would actions bounce forever if one of us was targeted with something? or not count at all?) 

Personally I don't agree. We had 6 people left that cycle, one who didn't vote, and three who had basically admitted they were fine with killing Kyne.
  - I don't think that Ash could have gotten enough people on Elk without looking suspicious himself in some way
  - He tried to start a vote on Silber and that didn't pick up, and Maybe he thought that following to Elk would look suspicious.
  - Ash did point out the fact that made Kyne more suspicious, but, I say again, he didn't after that go "so therefore my reasoning about clearing Kyne is wrong and since he's a top suspicion besides that one thing, I'm going to vote on Him" instead waiting until someone else voted, making it probably most likely that Kyne was going to die.
       - This helps clear Ash, but also was noncommital by Ash and didn't solidify Kyne's death at time, so if Kyne wasn't killed then whoopdeedoo, but if he was then Ash was cleared
  - After Kyne is basically dead Ash proceeds to ask him questions that seem helpful but he has no incentive to answer as no matter what his answer he wouldn't be cleared my any of them, and basically have no value to the village, as Actions from N1/2/3 are Irrelevant this far into the game, especially when we learned that using an Action doesn't mean you can't submit a kill.

Basically I don't find anything that you find clearing of Ash to be clearing.

I cede the point on "jumping on" Pyro suggesting you were planning on targeting Silber. I just didn't go back to check, and it made some level of sense.

The problem is, Silber was probably a decent Elim suspect. At least in my eyes. So I didn't know why the Elim would kill him. Assuming there's only one person (the Elim) lying about their action, they would need to have used an action in addition to their kill. But the only way for that to result in a kill aimed at one of us living four redirecting to Silber is if you used Survival on Silber, then tried to kill me, redirecting the kill to you and then to Silber. 

But I suppose it is based on a flawed premise... Pyro's premise. Hmm. Silber would be unlikely to have protection and is hard to sway on votes.

And I am rather interested in Survival loops. Would they just nullify the action entirely?

As for the second half:

     - My vote on Silber was in effort to get him to post. Inactivity in the later rounds tends to irk me much more. It would have been difficult to get a chain going, but not impossible.

     - I didn't say my reasoning on clearing Kyne was wrong because... it wasn't. Not exactly. Experience could have submitted the kill while under relative protection with Survival, but depending on how roleblocks interact with Survival it would still be risky. If there had been only three Elims, Kyne still was decently likely to have used the kill and then been caught by my roleblock. Pyro's explanation about the Coersion convinced me there was still an Elim under somewhat frantic illegal tools, and I decided that Kynedath fit the bill enough.

     - My statement didn't solidify Kynedath's lynch, but it unsolidified any real defense that I had previously given him. See above. Plus I was still trying to figure out the implications, notably me being seen by Elk visiting Pyro. 

     - I did manage to catch him in a lie, where he claimed a different action for N3 than he had earlier. (I actually hadn't noticed the earlier claim, but then Pyro linked the post... right in front of Kyne... and he still gave a conflicting answer?) And I was pressing him because he hadn't been answering the several times I'd asked him early in the cycle, where he wasn't under much suspicion. Plus, I was still thinking 1 Elim, which meant that they would have likely gotten Violence N3. I wanted to see who had a verifiable alibi for that night. (I still think Kyne used Violence N3, but there's obviously another Elim out there.)

I'll note that Pyro shows up a lot more in this explanation than Elk or even Illwei. I'll be looking into that. But there you go.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

For Ash, here's another thing they did that clears them from a lot of suspicion: link

Otherwise, I think it's important to look at these votes D3:

Ashbringer (2): Lord Silberfarben, Kynedath

Lord Silberfarben (2): Frozen Mint, Elkanah

Frozen Mint (2):: Ashbringer, Illwei

Kynedath's vote on Ash here put them in tie range. So another mark in favor of village!Ash. I will admit that elim!ash is more possible than I thought though, especially given the fact that Ash was the one who 'cleared' Kynedath in the first place. It's just unlikely.

Elk, though they switched off after Ash's reveal, did show a lot of suspicion of Kynedath here. Thus, I don't think they're an elim right now.

That leads me to Illwei.

Hopefully Zillah gets on in time for my table analysis to work. I need that rules clarification!

[Elkanah he/him]

3 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

...If the other villager has gotten deceived by the elim, I'm going to be so mad.

GG Illwei if you got me. I really didn't think you had it in you to bus every teammate.

3 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

...If the other villager has gotten deceived by the elim, I'm going to be so mad.

Knowing Illwei, he might've. His suspicion of Ash instead of you here is really incriminating as well, as is certain other things he's done. It also makes little sense for the elim to kill Silber, so he probably killed Ash and used survival on Silber.

If Ash didn't reveal anything, you or Silber would have been lynched. If Ash is the last elim, that would have won them the game. There was NO REASON for them to reveal, and that CONFIRMS them as village. @Elkanah @Illwei, if Ash was an elim, they'd have had to FOREGO WINNING THE GAME to begin this strategy. If it was some kind of next-level play, it would have to be one where the elims LITERALLY passed over victory to get one of their members removed from suspicion. Like, lynching ME makes more sense than Ash at this point. The elim voting for them makes sense, but villager, PLEASE change your mind.

I am willing to lynch Illwei or Elk.

@Zillah, I need this rules clarification well before the cycle's over. It could very well cost the village the game if you answer it too late for me to write up an argument for picking a certain table, or even if I do get it in time, if the village doesn't see it. Please respond as soon as you can. Thank you.

This post is weird. not in the Oooh he's an elim way, but in the how are you so certain Ash is good way. I don't know why elim Pyro would be defending Ashbringer right now. So I'm inclined to trust you. The thing is one of us is very wrong. Either my trust of Illwei is misplaced or your trust of Ashbringer. 

To be clear, when you say no reason to reveal, are you talking about revealing that kills are submitted independent of actions? Or did I miss something somewhere else? Honestly at the start of the cycle I was willing to lynch you or Ashbringer and Ashbringer made more sense. He does even more so after this post. If I am to trust you, though, I will take a hard look at Illwei. I'm not saying I'm going to or not going to move my vote. Just that I'm willing to give it another look

[Ashbringer he/him]

3 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

For Ash, here's another thing they did that clears them from a lot of suspicion: link

Er... 

How does that clear me?

I technically was in danger and didn't notice. Or was it calling out Kynedath's protection?

[Elkanah he/him]

I thought it was that Kynedath was willing to bus you

Edit: Oh, followed the link. I see

Edited September 15, 2020 by Elkanah

[Ashbringer he/him]

... but what about my post?

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

6 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

GG Illwei if you got me. I really didn't think you had it in you to bus every teammate.

This post is weird. not in the Oooh he's an elim way, but in the how are you so certain Ash is good way. I don't know why elim Pyro would be defending Ashbringer right now. So I'm inclined to trust you. The thing is one of us is very wrong. Either my trust of Illwei is misplaced or your trust of Ashbringer. 

To be clear, when you say no reason to reveal, are you talking about revealing that kills are submitted independent of actions? Or did I miss something somewhere else? Honestly at the start of the cycle I was willing to lynch you or Ashbringer and Ashbringer made more sense. He does even more so after this post. If I am to trust you, though, I will take a hard look at Illwei. I'm not saying I'm going to or not going to move my vote. Just that I'm willing to give it another look

I think I ninjad you.

The reason I was bolding things like that is because I know that Illwei sometimes has trouble understanding posts, which I sympathize with, and so I tried to make it easier for them. 

EDIT: It was because you pointed out that bit of weirdness. That's one of the reasons I suspect Elk tbh, because part of me thinks Kyn DID protect Elk and was covering his tracks for teamwork or something.

Edited September 15, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer

[Elkanah he/him]

Yeah you did, and Kynedath being willing to go after Ashbringer is a pretty solid point. So either Kynedath was bussing Ashbringer or Illwei was bussing Vapor and Experience. That's a pretty level playing field.

 

As a side note, why did the elims kill Elandera? She was openly defending Kynedath. @Ashbringer, @Illwei, I'm mostly looking to the elim of the two to answer. huh. It won't let me tag Illwei.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I'd also like to note that, though Illwei flip-flopped a lot D3, he stayed away from Kynedath.

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

huh. It won't let me tag Illwei.

Are you spelling my name with two "L" s? ...

Edit: random number generator? :P.

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

The reason I was bolding things like that is because I know that Illwei sometimes has trouble understanding posts, which I sympathize with, and so I tried to make it easier for them. 

I- er- thank... you?

do you mean Day 4? as for me flip flopping? I voted on Silber and Mint?

I don't think that saying things you find suspicious about now confirmed Elims clears you at all, as probably everyone here would be cleared then.

Edited September 15, 2020 by Illwei

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

do you mean Day 4? as for me flip flopping? I voted on Silber and Mint?

I don't think that saying things you find suspicious about now confirmed Elims clears you at all, as probably everyone here would be cleared then.

Yes, that. If I remember it right, you went back and forth several times in one post.

It does clear you somewhat, as elims would be incentivised to gloss it over.

[Illwei]

16 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Yes, that. If I remember it right, you went back and forth several times in one post.

One

Spoiler

I don’t have a lot of time to write things so this is only off the top of my head. I’ll try to look more, if I have time, later, though It is pretty close to rollover :P…

1 - Thoughts
Personally I’d rather assume 4 Elims than 3. If there only turns out to be three, then woot, nice surprise, but if there is 4 and we just all kind of assume there are 3, then that might turn out bad for us. Also 3/15 is 1/5th of the group, and 5/15 is 1/3 , so, suspension of disbelief, 4/15 is therefore ¼ :P.

Can you explain what you find interesting about those posts instead of just dumping some posts on us? Maybe it’s just me, but I mean, I could tell you what I might find interesting about those posts, or what I think you might have found interesting, but that’s different from you pointing out specific things that you find important/interesting.

2 - Kinda Reads? Kinda just more thoughts?

• Frozen Mint - I initially had them as an Elim read, based, for the most part, on D1 interactions, but I don’t know what to think based on Experience’s vote on them when he was voted up, since I don’t think that he would have voted on a teammate for a counter when other people had expressed suspicion of them.
• Kynedath - Hasn’t really posted? Seen them lurking a bit but hasn’t posted so I don’t know what to think. 
• Silber - Voted on Ash for voting on him, it seems. I don’t remember seeing Silber vote before, so that seems different to me, but that’s not really anything to go off of. 
• Elkanah - I still have them as a Village read? I was waiting to read Pyro’s post that I thought he said he was going to write about his suspicions of an Elk/Mint team? 
• Pyro - Very strong defense of Ash. but I mean, that’s understandable. Wrote a big post that I don’t understand, but that’s on me. 
• Ashbringer - They’ve been pushing for people to talk more and figure things out, I agree with Pyro that that’s pretty village. My only point against them was that they weren’t RPing and I found that weird :P, so I have them as a slight Village read rn. The paranoid part of my brain is saying they’ve just stayed more active because of the vote that was on them earlier, but-. That’s just because I don’t remember seeing them post before.
• Sart - 

Two

Spoiler

 don't quite understand this reasoning. You think he's an Elim, but you'd rather vote on Mint because other people find Mint suspicious?

I think I'm going to vote for Silber for right now?...I think...
@Lord_Silberfarben

EDIT: I think I kinda understand. so nvm.

Three

Spoiler

Personally it's because he's semi-inactive and I agree with Elk that it'll tell us something About Sart. I don't know what to think of his Vote on Ash, but- I don't know.

I didn't notice that Mint had voted Silber, I don't know how I feel because I want to believe that Mint is vil, but something keeps telling me not to trust them. I don't know what to think of the fact that Ash voted on mint because "everyone seems to be saying they're somewhat suspicious" but I don't think an elim would outright say that if they didn't have any leads. I don't quite like that Silber started a vote on Ash seemingly because Ash voted on him? 

Four

Spoiler

I- I- yeah. I'm more lost on reads. I know it's normal for Silber. and yeah, remembering that this whole "manipulatey thing" that Mint mentioned doesn't sound like something he would do unless people are spoon feeding him posts, which, I mean, I don't think so? I also know that he doesn't really vote, besides this one vote for ASh because Ash voted on him, and I was thinking that I'd rather lynch someone that doesn't vote than people who do, which now that I think about it and actually write it down, voting on someone who doesn't really do anything doesn't tell us anything. so. 

so, Silber? because I would like to err...ere?...air? on the side of caution. 
I am going to repeat that I don't like the idea that there are only 3 Elims. I don't like how much people are assuming there are only 3 elims. It seems much safer to me to assume there are 4, and then be happy if it turns out to be only one more.

A part of me wants to vote Mint because part of me thinks that she's suspicious, and it's really easy to claim protection as an elim, as no one can really prove that. all you have to do is claim protection on someone that you're not going to kill? 

I ended up voting Silber in an attempt to find someone who wasn't mint, but- 
I'm going to switch to Mint, final answer. yeah. okay. Mint. 

The only reason I can think of not being suspicious of Pyro is that he hasn't really done anything suspicious? but he also hasn't really done anything Village? (er someone correct me if I'm forgetting) But part of me is becoming suspicious of him because it feels as though he's trying to come up with reasoning against me that I don't see there (ie, Silber, Flippity Flop) 

On the other hand, If he was an Elim I don't see why he wouldn't just put a vote on Ash, unless he thinks that doing that would make the votes shift because he has been fighting for Ash's innocense....innocints....inno...inno... Villager-y-ness?

EDIT: 

16 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

It does clear you somewhat, as elims would be incentivised to gloss it over.

my point is that because everyone here (as far as I can remember) has pointed out something suspicious about an Elim before the Elim's death, so it can't really be used reliably in this situation. and If not everyone here has, at least both Ash and I have.

I'm starting to doubt myself and worry that a lot of the problems I had with some of Ash's logic was actually problems I had with you?

Someone please tell me if I'm going crazy

Edited September 15, 2020 by Illwei