Mid-Range Game 31: Spiritual Warfare

[+ElephantEarwax]

Sorry that I didn't answer before. Meta and Alvarion were healed. Confirm.

[MetaTerminal]

While I'm interested to see how this Crimsn thing pans out, I'm going with my gut microbiome with Fifth. The Bard flip leads me to believe that one of Devotary/Drought is converted as well. I'll Hrathen-vote one of them when I can (and, yes, that is an amazing game mechanic).

[Walin]

Wow; I'm surprised I'm still alive.

As is apparent, I've been inactive. I also don't have anything to say. I may as well say, though, that I'm an Independent. I also think that if we band together, Elantrians can make a pretty convincing zombie horde. We could probably take on Hrathen without Aons.

[Fifth Scholar]

Okay, here goes. 

@I think I am here., you posit that Crimsn is the traitor in the Wildmen’s doc by virtue of a very long chain of reasoning, but unfortunately it seems contingent on something that didn’t actually happen. I believe your interpretation of how “fighting back” works is flawed; it doesn’t nullify the attack, but it does retaliate against those who made it. So if Crimsn actually had attacked Xino and Xino had fought back, assuming neither was Shaor, both would have died. While I am very confused as to how the actual attacks went down last cycle, and do believe that some explaining is likely in order (such as how Xino survived a presumed attack, and how on Sel the attacks got so spread out), I don’t think your version of events is possible, and accusing Crimsn for it is a terrible move for the village. 

See, from my PM with Crimsn, she was actively advocating for the Wildmen not to cannibalise, and it’s my understanding that she presented a similar view in your doc. While she is obviously not fully trustworthy, the strange recurring lynch attempts on her are making me want to clear her more, almost, and her general tone is making me want to trust her as well. This isn’t very conclusive evidence, but what you presented isn’t very thorough either, and I don’t think Crimsn should be lynched this cycle (or at all). 

Why? She is one of four remaining possible Shaors. Four. Let that sink in a minute. The Spirits may already know who Shaor is, but we shouldn’t be narrowing the field for them, and we really shouldn’t be lynching a potential Shaor when we really need to focus outside the Wildmen. Remember that Shaor can’t be killed by her own men, so any attempt on her life will come through the lynch, or not at all. (She could potentially still be converted but the supposed lack of conversions amongst the Wildmen that Itiah presented indicates to me that they’re likely out of them, even though I think those results are perhaps bogus. But I’m getting ahead of myself here)

However, Itiah, there’s a potential traitor among the Wildmen that isn’t Shaor, and has no chance of being Shaor at all. It’s you. Your conversion makes a lot of sense to me right now. As Dashe, you are easily able to warp our perceptions of how the factions are balanced, and therefore have a large say in where the lynch ends up. Having the suspicions confirmed about a Galladon!Independent on the same cycle that the thread was looking at Bard, Meta and I very closely helped reinforce the lynch on one of us. This cycle, you’re focusing on the traitor in the Wildmen, and advocating for the lynch of Crimsn. I can’t say that she’s innocent, but she is a potential Shaor, and I think that eliminating one of those until we get either a Shaor claim, or more information, is a very bad thing. I’m unsure how much the Wildmen Spirit(s), whether Itiah or others, have been able to narrow down who they think Shaor is, but if Crimsn was one of their top choices I could easily see them trying to force through a Crimsn lynch this cycle towards the end. This is conjecture, but is definitely worth considering when we can’t really trust anybody. 

Further points against Itiah: two Independents is realistic, but also seems a little on the higher end. With Bard dead, and Walin a very unlikely Galladon or convert, that leaves two out of four people to be Spirits among the Independents. Knowing my own alignment, I find it difficult to  believe that out of three complete Independents, two were Eliminators, especially since one would have to be a convert. However, one Wildman also seems on the very low end of things. The Spirits would have very little incentive to convert anywhere outside the Wildmen from BR’s death onwards, in order to accumulate both kills and eliminate/spy on potential Shaors. Itiah fits the bill perfectly; he has access to a kill action with his status as a Wildman, and also incriminating information with his scans as a villager, and the ability to mislead with them once he becomes an Eliminator. Converting him would be a very smart move, if not immediately then soon thereafter, especially given the comparative lack of attention to Itiah’s alignment preceding this. After his conversion, he could lie and say there was only one traitor amongst the Wildmen, presumably to mask himself from scrutiny as the Wildmen look around for his teammate, but mostly ignore him as a threat. Finally, I asked Itiah to scan the Barons last night. While I understand this could be village!Itiah not trusting me, village!Itiah would also presumably want to see if I was worth trusting, and since I’m the only Baron left who has any significant chance of being a convert, he essentially could have scanned me last night. He chose instead to check out the Wildmen, giving him the opportunity to shape our views on this most influential faction. 

Finally: regarding my likelihood of being converted; what would the Spirits gain? They already have at least one Independent, and while healing is nice, it’s hardly necessary if they’re staying in the shadows of the game, or are in more trusted positions. In addition, as I’ve said earlier, the Spirits would likely want to funnel their conversion attempts into finding Shaor or obtaining Wildmen assassins and spies, and any attempt outside of the Wildmen is essentially a waste. Finally, the risk of Itiah scanning the Barons and outing me almost immediately would be great enough as to strongly disincentivise my conversion. While it’s true that I’m far from clear, and that I’ve landed on the wrong side of many lynches, I believe Itiah is a better candidate here. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So the writeup suggests that the bodyguard protected an action. Doing so would cause the bodyguard and the person to take the action to be attacked, so both the bodyguard and the player whose action they blocked should have been listed in the writeup as having been attacked. That would mean that Kidpen cannot be the bodyguard, as he was not attacked. If Xino was the bodyguard, he shouldn't have been able to survive nullifying an action unless he's evil or has been healed, as I assume he wouldn't have been able to protect someone and get food simultaneously. I don't see how Crimsn could have either attacked me or protected someone as a bodyguard unless she's evil or been healed by the Barons, as she shouldn't have been able to survive an attack either. That means that the bodyguard is probably Alvron, who apparently also claimed they would attack me. Since neither Alvron nor Crimsn should then have been able to attack me, but I gained two levels of pain, something weird must have happened. I ended up going for food yesterday, so I managed to survive the dual attack, but I would like to know who attacked me and why. Unless Itiah can attack, in which case it could have been that Kidpen and Itiah attacked me, I don't see how this could have happened. @Jaddeth in the Bush, would someone who was protected from an attack by the bodyguard be listed as having been attacked? If so, things make more sense, as Xino or Crimsn could have attacked me and be listed as having survived an attack without actually taking damage.

For this cycle, I would say that we shouldn't be lynching any original Wildman without proof of their guilt, and I don't particularly like the fact that Itiah is advocating for such. However, I do believe that there is at least one Independent Spirit, and my leading candidates are Fifth and Meta, as Drought and Walin were less active. I could see Fifth and Meta being on a team together, but only if either: one of them was converted after Fifth arranged for three Wildmen to attack Meta cycle five, or if they knew that not all the Wildmen would follow through. For right now, I'll vote Fifth for the lynch and vote for Hrathen to kill Meta. 

[MetaTerminal]

Quote

As a final note, it is possible that Itiah is lying, as a Wildman convert, and it’s not implausible. That said, again because I believe the Spirits are focusing on converting Shaor, and because he is definitively ruled out, I am inclined to believe him for now. 

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

However, Itiah, there’s a potential traitor among the Wildmen that isn’t Shaor, and has no chance of being Shaor at all. It’s you. Your conversion makes a lot of sense to me right now.

Well, that's quite an about face Fifth. 

(Edit: I forgot I already voted for them. Whoops.)

Edited October 5, 2018 by MetaTerminal

[Fifth Scholar]

5 minutes ago, MetaTerminal said:

Well, that's quite an about face Fifth. 

(Edit: I forgot I already voted for them. Whoops.)

Yes, it is. And I stand by it. I did bring up earlier the fact that Itiah may have been converted, but didn’t act on it because I believed I had better targets. Bard’s flip as village surprised me, but it also allowed me to realise that a lot of my suspicion of him (and you, and Devotary) had been grounded in Itiah’s scans, which, as I have outlined above, may not be trustworthy. I stand by my assertion that the Spirits are focused on finding Shaor and staying hidden, both of which are helped along by converting Dashe. 

Also, do you have any reasoning beyond “bad vibes” as to why you suspect and are voting on me? What about me is suspicious? Do you have any thoughts on anything I said about Itiah beyond my supposed hypocrisy? 

[Fifth Scholar]

Sorry for the double post, but a significant enough time has lapsed that I feel it merits a new post. 

I will be basically offline for the rest of the cycle, so I am essentially finished with contesting my lynch. My fate is in your hands at this point. Please choose wisely, and if you’re at all interested in talking to me, ask in thread for a PM (or shoot me one if you’re Independent).

Because we appear to be ticking ever closer to the Doomsday Clock, I will be using my Hrathen vote to get him to call off the Invasion. I’d rather that we have time to analyse everybody in the depth and for the length of time we need to, instead of being constrained in how long we need to take to find the Spirits by an outside counter.

[I think I am here.]

Hey, Fifth.

10 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

you posit that Crimsn is the traitor in the Wildmen’s doc by virtue of a very long chain of reasoning, but unfortunately it seems contingent on something that didn’t actually happen. I believe your interpretation of how “fighting back” works is flawed; it doesn’t nullify the attack, but it does retaliate against those who made it. So if Crimsn actually had attacked Xino and Xino had fought back, assuming neither was Shaor, both would have died.

It’s possible this is how fighting back works, but I doubt it, since it makes the most sense in regards to how the results got as they did. By all means, my assumption on how fighting back works could be flawed, but I think it makes sense and I’m going to stick to it. Is there anywhere in the rules that states it works how you say it does? Because if there is, I’d be happy to concede this point. I haven’t seen it though.

Also, I think you’ve either forgotten or ignored the real reason I think Crimsn is the traitor. It’s not because of how I believe fighting back to work, it’s because she was attacked and yet didn’t die. If she was an ordinary Wildman like she said, she would be dead. No one is admitting to her being healed, so it must be obvious she’s the traitor, because the only reason she’s alive that’s left is her being a Spirit.

10 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

This isn’t very conclusive evidence, but what you presented isn’t very thorough either,

I think the way I’ve put it is thorough enough. There are a handful of ways she could have survived an attack, and now the only option left is that she’s evil. That’s the base of my argument, and so far I don’t think anyone has contested it.

10 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Why? She is one of four remaining possible Shaors. Four.

I think you forget that if she’s a traitor then she’s already narrowed down Shaor to three people. All killing her does is kill a Spirit and remove a spy from the doc.

But, I partially concede. If Crimsn isn’t the traitor, killing her will only narrow down the possible suspects of Shaor to two people, not counting the traitor third person.

Still, I’m not going to give up my vote until @Crimsn-Wolf explains herself.

10 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

However, Itiah, there’s a potential traitor among the Wildmen that isn’t Shaor, and has no chance of being Shaor at all.

Wait a sec now. You do realise that, according to our theories, the Spirits have one, maybe two conversions left. You do realise the only way for the Spirits to take out Shaor directly is through the conversions.

I think you overestimate my capibilities. I’m not a lynch leader, I don’t have the power to decide a lynch. Honestly, Bard was going to be lynched anyway, he was a high suspicion after CadCom. I just scan factions. My literal only use to the Spirits is to hide them more efficiently, and that won’t even matter if they can get Shaor.

You say converting me is a good option because I can lead lynches into innocents. Look how many opinions I’ve had this game that haven’t decided lynches. Maybe in the early game I could’ve been a good target, but now, when the Spirits have few conversions left? I doubt they’d waste one on me.

10 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Finally, the risk of Itiah scanning the Barons and outing me almost immediately would be great enough as to strongly disincentivise my conversion.

I seen this, and I’ve said sorry for not scanning the Barons. I don’t know whether scanning the Barons would’ve really cleared you or not, but I didn’t and you’re still suspicious. If it helps I think I’ll scan the Barons this cycle.

[Darkness Ascendant]

4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Because we appear to be ticking ever closer to the Doomsday Clock, I will be using my Hrathen vote to get him to call off the Invasion. I’d rather that we have time to analyse everybody in the depth and for the length of time we need to, instead of being constrained in how long we need to take to find the Spirits by an outside counter.

1

Unfortunately the entire reason Hrathen is here is because he cannot prevent the Invasion. Why would Wyrn listen to him at this point?

Furthermore, perhaps if you all converted to Shu-Derethi the invasion need not occur.

But lets face it, Domi is sooo much better than Jaddeth amirite?

[xxGaea]

8 hours ago, I think I am here. said:

I think you forget that if she’s a traitor then she’s already narrowed down Shaor to three people. All killing her does is kill a Spirit and remove a spy from the doc.

But, I partially concede. If Crimsn isn’t the traitor, killing her will only narrow down the possible suspects of Shaor to two people, not counting the traitor third person.

Still, I’m not going to give up my vote until @Crimsn-Wolf explains herself.

So, I am not sure what happened last cycle. The GM's pmed me saying my target was protected, and that I was attacked and also protected. So I am honestly super confused by what the heck is happening.

Also, I won't be on much today. I woke up at 6 30 this morning and was throwing up until 10 30. I am starting to feel better now, but.

[MetaTerminal]

18 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Also, do you have any reasoning beyond “bad vibes” as to why you suspect and are voting on me? What about me is suspicious? Do you have any thoughts on anything I said about Itiah beyond my supposed hypocrisy? 

Quote

So... look. Despite my high falutin', I am new here. And as a result I don't really know how to put a case together. But I know two things: that there is almost certainly at least one Spirit Independent (probably Galladon) and we have rumors that there is a second convert among the Independents. It was theorised that one of them is among [Fifth, Bard, Meta]. That was last turn. Bard has flipped. That leaves us two.

Let me proceed to put on my tinfoil hat. Now, as a Spirit, I could have done two things. I could either push the wagon for the other person (me) - however, when they flip independent, that leaves you on the chopping block. No dice. But there's a second option - call the idea into question, and hopefully everyone forgets about it and moves on; despite the fact that you have yourself cleared Dashe using IKYK (the same IKYK that cleared you, I believe) and have been pushing to trust their reads until they incriminated you. Yes, there is no chance of Dashe being Shaor - but they're also our only source of information. Even if we can't trust them, what they say can give us indications. As Itiah has previously stated, if they're not already converted, then they won't be converted now. I'd rather, as a Spirit, take a 1/4 chance (and possibly much less if others in the Wildmen are converted) to win the game outright than to convert Dashe and hope that village lynches each other. We've got good analysts - we can see patterns form. If Itiah has been Spirit, they've been Spirit for a long time. No point changing your mind about their alignment now - unless you're a Spirit. In one stroke, you not only deprive village from a source of future information, but you also save your own head and don't waste a precious conversion. Win-win for everyone except us.

Now, it is entirely possible that Galladon and the other convert is among [Drought, Devotary, Walin]. But it makes sense for Galladon to be active, and for Spirits to convert active players - especially ones that aren't suspicious or have been cleared of suspicion. Converting players that are suspicious or inactive don't help. They can't vote - they can't swing public opinion.

So, what does this elaborate conspiracy mean? I think that Spirit!Fifth is a real possibility. They're not Shaor, they have a 40% chance of being a elim if two of the surviving Independents are Spirit, we don't deprive ourselves of future reads and, most importantly, converting them makes sense if you're a Spirit in the early-game. They could have been Karata, remember.

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by MetaTerminal
This was both formatted weird and posted early. Computer problems. Sorry.

[Kidpen]

On 10/4/2018 at 0:47 AM, Domi in the Dark said:

The most voted action will result in something that influences this game and future games.

This scares me. I'm scared. Fall break is beginning, so I should have plenty of time for at least a week.

i'll vote for Hrathen to kill Meta, although it is tempting to make him convert to Shu-Korath.

***

Daan went up to the Gyorn. "I'd like to convert to Shu-Dereth, please. Wyrn is powerful, and it seems that he may be able to put Elantris out of it's misery."

I understand if Hrathen does not wish to break from his meditation.

[+ElephantEarwax]

I vote for Hrathen to break down the gate. (allowed?)

Edited October 6, 2018 by ElephantEarwax

[A Joe in the Bush]

7 minutes ago, ElephantEarwax said:

I vote for Hrathen to break down the gate. (allowed?)

All actions are allowed

[+ElephantEarwax]

Just now, Jaddeth in the Bush said:

All actions are allowed

Yay. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

13 hours ago, I think I am here. said:

It’s possible this is how fighting back works, but I doubt it, since it makes the most sense in regards to how the results got as they did. By all means, my assumption on how fighting back works could be flawed, but I think it makes sense and I’m going to stick to it. Is there anywhere in the rules that states it works how you say it does? Because if there is, I’d be happy to concede this point. I haven’t seen it though.

Quote

All wildmen can choose to attack a player, dealing one level of pain. Their target has a 40% chance of fighting back; dealing one level of pain to the wildman. 

This excerpt from the rules certainly seems to suggest that if the target fights back, both the Wildman and the target take damage. If my (unconfirmed) theory that a player protected by the bodyguard will still appear in the writeup as having been attacked is true, then it is possible for Crimsn to have survived an attack. I see that Crimsn has indeed claimed to have been protected, though I don't know how both Crimsn and her target would have ended up being protected. 

3 hours ago, MetaTerminal said:

So, what does this elaborate conspiracy mean? I think that Spirit!Fifth is a real possibility. They're not Shaor, they have a 40% chance of being a elim if two of the surviving Independents are Spirit, we don't deprive ourselves of future reads and, most importantly, converting them makes sense if you're a Spirit in the early-game. They could have been Karata, remember.

If Fifth had been converted on suspicion of being Karata, he would have been evil at the time he led the lynch on Shqueeves cycle 3, since the Shqueeves lynch and the Karata conversion both happened during the same cycle.  It is possible that you've changed your mind since cycle five, where you stated a belief that Fifth was a villager at the time Shqueeves was lynched, but if so I'd like to hear why. I don't get the sense that Fifth and Itiah are both evil, not least because that would mean that four out the five original Children of Karata are evil, which means that if Fifth had been converted cycle six, (and Itiah is thus still a villager) there are now three Independent Spirits, which seems absurdly high. That means that if Fifth is a Spirit, he's Galladon/was converted cycle 4 or cycle 5. I feel the chances of this are good enough that I'm content to stick with my votes to kill both Fifth and Meta this cycle. That would mean that Spirit!Fifth asked Itiah to scan the Barons, but I don't see that as clearing Fifth, as it's entirely possible he planned all along to turn on Itiah after Bard flipped village. Depending on Fifth and Meta flip, we should be better able to clear/condemn the remaining Independents and Itiah.

[MetaTerminal]

12 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If Fifth had been converted on suspicion of being Karata, he would have been evil at the time he led the lynch on Shqueeves cycle 3, since the Shqueeves lynch and the Karata conversion both happened during the same cycle.  It is possible that you've changed your mind since cycle five, where you stated a belief that Fifth was a villager at the time Shqueeves was lynched, but if so I'd like to hear why.

Ah, yes. That last sentence I didn’t really think through when I wrote it, and looking back I definitely don’t agree with it. I think that Fifth were converted either cycle 4 or 5 - them being Galladon doesn’t make sense to me. I didn’t start getting Spirit vibes until recently, and Spirit!Karata even voted on Fifth after their conversion to try and dodge the lynch. So I’m looking at a converted Fifth.

[Alvron]

Votes:
Crimsn (2): Itiah, Alv
Fifth (2): Meta, Devotary
Itiah (1): Fifth

Right then, I have looked at this from every angle I can see and I've come to the only logical conclusion I can find.  Crimsn is evil.
Crimsn says she attacked Devotary and that the attack was blocked and that she herself was attacked and that attack was also blocked.  I cannot see any way for two attacks on two separate players to be blocked when there is only one BG so Crimsn must be lying either about attacking Devotary or about being protected.  One of those cannot be true if the other is.

As it is, the votes are tied and normally I would be fine keeping it that way but we might be better off lynching Crimsn and having the Wildmen attack Fifth to insure maximum results, in fact,

I vote that we send Itiah to attack Hrathen.  There has been quite a bit of talk that they might be converted and this way we can learn if they are clean scans or if they are evil and have been lying to us the entire time.

I feel these are the best actions we can take this round as it will result in maximum information for the next round and should take out at least one Spirit.

[Darkness Ascendant]

Just now, Alvron said:

send Itiah to attack Hrathen.

You control Hrathen's actions.

[Alvron]

2 minutes ago, Domi in the Dark said:

You control Hrathen's actions.

In that case, he should do the jitterbug.

[Darkness Ascendant]

10 minutes ago, Alvron said:

In that case, he should do the jitterbug.

Haha put it in yellow  

[I think I am here.]

32 minutes ago, Alvron said:

send Itiah to attack Hrathen. 

If you really want to do this, you could word it:

“I vote for ‘Hrathen to get Itiah to attack him.’”

Same result, except different wording.

[Alvron]

7 minutes ago, Domi in the Dark said:

Haha put it in yellow  

3 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

If you really want to do this, you could word it:

“I vote for ‘Hrathen to get Itiah to attack him.’”

Same result, except different wording.

I vote Hrathen to do the Jitterbug while attacking Itiah.  Better?  

[Darkness Ascendant]

2 minutes ago, Alvron said:

I vote Hrathen to do the Jitterbug while attacking Itiah.  Better?  

Awesome