The long peace...

[Calderis]

Which still doesn't add up with the timing. Taln coincidentally breaks at the perfect moment for the Everstorm to be made and the Fused to again have bodies capable of holding them? 

1 hour ago, Child of Hodor said:

"HOWEVER, IF ANY OF THE TEN AGREED TO BEND HIS OATH AND LET THE VOIDBRINGERS PAST, IT OPENED A FLOOD. THEY COULD ALL RETURN." - OB Chapter 38 

Yes. "let the Voidbringers past" so if they weren't sent, then there's nothing to stop. 

1 hour ago, Child of Hodor said:

Once one is allowed to leave they can all leave. If Odium can hold a Herald on Braize after he has given in and is no longer holding the fused back why not let the fused go back and continue to hold Taln? Why let him go at all if Odium can hold them back after they've agreed to let a fused past?

Because the Oathpact still holds and as long is Taln is there, the Fused can't leave. The Oathpact did nothing to Odium directly, it just blocks the Fused. 

Quote

THEY GAVE THEMSELVES UP. AS ODIUM IS SEALED BY THE POWERS OF HONOR AND CULTIVATION, YOUR HERALDS SEALED THE SPREN OF THE DEAD INTO THE PLACE YOU CALL DAMNATION.

Not Odium, the Fused. 

If he'd thought that holding the Heralds vac would have aided him prior, I fully believe he would have. 

@Jace21 @StanLemon @galendo

I fully agree earlier would have been better, and if he could have managed the Everstorm sooner I think that would have happened. I think he released Taln, which allowed the Fused out, as soon as he knew the Everstorm was inevitable. 

[Jace21]

Just now, Calderis said:

@Jace21 @StanLemon @galendo

I fully agree earlier would have been better, and if he could have managed the Everstorm sooner I think that would have happened. I think he released Taln, which allowed the Fused out, as soon as he knew the Everstorm was inevitable. 

Then I guess where I disagree is on whether he could have done it sooner.

While the conflict between the Alethi and the Singers certainly helped him manipulate them into summoning the Everstorm I find it incredibly unlikely that he couldnt have found a way to do so earlier.

I see it more that he knew it had been long enough for a long time so was ready to act quickly once Taln broke.

There may have been a delay between Taln breaking and returning but I think it was years, not centuries and I dont think Odium could have caused the delay directly, even if he benefited from it.

[+Child of Hodor]

52 minutes ago, Calderis said:

Which still doesn't add up with the timing. Taln coincidentally breaks at the perfect moment for the Everstorm to be made and the Fused to again have bodies capable of holding them? 

 

The Everstorm was ready to be summoned soon after Taln got back because Ulim was the first to escape and he taught Venli how to summon the Everstorm.  

Quote

 

Our leaders know exactly what they’re doing. Them I obey. But I am the one who escaped, the spren of redemption. I don’t have to listen to you. ”

— Ulim to Venli^[1]

We don't know for sure Ulim escaped from Braize, but that seems likely. He sees this as a point of pride, a significant accomplishment not something where Taln gave in 3,000 years ago and all the Fused and voidspren sat around waiting until Odium told them it was time to leave and then only Ulim came back and Ulim had to do all the work of manipulating the Listeners by himself. 

 

We also know that there is a delay in the coming back, at least for the Fused. Towards the end of OB Leshwi tells Moash that not all the fused have come back across and Taln had been back for months at that point. If Taln broke thousands of years ago why weren't more Fused ready to go when Odium gave the word? They could have used a few more Fused at Thaylen City.

 

If some Fused still haven't made their way back to Roshar in OB then it's not an all at once, at the same speed, return for everyone. It's possible there was naturally a bit of a delay between Ulim getting back and Taln getting back during which time Ulim was working on the Listeners. 

 

Something like:

 

1) Taln let's Ulim past. Taln leaves after but not immediately. 

2) Ulim gets to Roshar and teaches Venli how to bring the Everstorm. 

3) Taln arrives end of WoK

 

I'll say it is convenient that the Listeners were on the verge of annihilation which made them more desperate, therefore more likely to turn to the old forms of power. Odium was working on Gavilar (he had those black spheres), but there would only need to be a delay of years and not thousands of years between Taln letting Ulim past and Taln showing up. 

 

Various spren in the cognitive realm knew a Desolation was coming that's why Wyndle was sent across and Syl defied the Stormfather to go to Kaladin. Syl was already beginning to bond Kaladin in WoK chapter 1 Stormblessed which is 1 year before the current events of the Way of Kings start. Syl knew a Desolation was coming and decided to come across over a year before WoK present day.  

 

The spren may have known this because Ulim showed up on Roshar and they knew if one got free more would follow eventually. 

 

 

 

[Calderis]

25 minutes ago, Child of Hodor said:

The Everstorm was ready to be summoned soon after Taln got back because Ulim was the first to escape and he taught Venli how to summon the Everstorm.  

 

25 minutes ago, Child of Hodor said:

We don't know for sure Ulim escaped from Braize, but that seems likely. He sees this as a point of pride, a significant accomplishment not something where Taln gave in 3,000 years ago and all the Fused and voidspren sat around waiting until Odium told them it was time to leave and then only Ulim came back and Ulim had to do all the work of manipulating the Listeners by himself. 

None of this changes the way I see things. As long as Taln was held there, the restrictions of the Oathpact held. Until he returned they couldn't leave. And it's not a matter of them just "lying in wait." the stronger of the Fused that have yet to arrive aren't moving more slowly, they were in some kind of unnatural slumber. 

Whatever held them did not end until Taln was released. 

I don't know what's up with Ulim but I find it far more likely that he escaped being trapped in the first place than that he crossed over from Braize. 

As to the rest of the post, I don't disagree with any of it. Whatever moves Odium was making to set things in motion were detected and created a push on the parts of the Spren. As I've said earlier in the thread, trying to do that prior to the Everstorm would have been counterproductive to Odium's goals. 

[galendo]

4 hours ago, Wreith said:

I don't understand. You say he needed someone to transform the Parshmen and then you say he could have done that before just like he did now. I'm missing something in your statement...
It's not about "conning" anyone. it's about the last legion, aka, the parshendi of the shattered plains, being the only Listeners capable of voluntarily forming bonds at all.

I'm saying there's two groups of people Odium needs: Parshendi to bring the Everstorm, and Parsendi to house the Fused.  Those don't have to be the same groups.  In the modern era, they largely aren't.

Since there don't seem to be all that many Fused, from what we've seen so far, there should have been a large enough population of Parshmen at basically any time after the Recreance to house the Fused with some to spare.  We don't know exactly how many Parshmen there were at the time, but that probably wasn't the limiting factor.  He could have duped them in the same way he does present-day.

What might have accounted for Odium's delay was getting the first group ready, the group necessary to summon the Everstorm originally.  The present-day Parshendi had an aversion to their old gods, and even present-day they wouldn't have summoned the Everstorm without the Alethi threat.  Go back too far into the past, and the group might well have chosen to risk extinction rather than bring back their gods.

Duping ex-Parshmen into accepting the Fused is easy; Odium can do that any time.  Duping the Parshendi into summoning the Everstorm in the first place might not have been possible until their memories had been given time to fade.  (It still seems like it shouldn't have required nearly as long as it did, but at least it explains why Odium wasn't able to act immediately.)

[Wreith]

17 hours ago, galendo said:

What might have accounted for Odium's delay was getting the first group ready, the group necessary to summon the Everstorm originally

this.
You keep saying that he could have corrupted the parshmen at any time and that isn't the case. They were unable to form bonds.
Maybe you mean "if he triggered the everstorm back then..." but that wasn't clear from your first comment and isn't much better in your second.

 

Also, I was reading the first vison dalinar includes Jasnah and Navani in and the Stormfather says that the heralds "...needed to be together in Damnation to share the burden of torture...".
Implies  that the burden wouldn't be shared with Taln trapped and the others free.

Unreliable narrator, though so...

[ScavellTane]

It looks like the ruination of the Radiants was Odiums intent but the severing of the Singers was a counter move, which bought Roshar another 2000 years.

[Jace21]

Ok its been a few days but I have just had an idea.

So my main issues with the theory put forth by @Calderis were:

1. That Odium would have begun the final desolation long before the present day had he been able to.

2. That Odium doesnt have the ability to prevent Taln returning once he is broken, I believe that is between the Heralds amd Honor.

But I had an epiphany!

I agree that Odium realised that waiting before the next desolation would increase his chances of success.

So, when he and the fused were trapped on Braize post-Aharietiam, they began looking for Taln as they usually would.

However I think that once they found him (which I cant imagine took that long) they did not try to break him yet, they just imprisoned him.

Then a couple of thousand years later the recreance happens, honor is splintered and mankind begins to forget, Odiums plan has worked.

Now they begin torturing Taln. They figure it'll take about 500 years to break him (based on yhe other Heralds) by which time humankind will be ignorant, without Honour, Radiants or Heralds and there will be enough singers to be manipulated into summoning the Everstorm and hosting the Fused.

The issue was that Taln didnt break for 2000-2500 years.

So Odium did plan to wait and deliberately waited for a lot of the time between Aharietiam and the Last Desolation.

But at the same time he couldnt hold Taln back once broke and Taln gets awesome points for being a a badass and buying humanity an extra 2 millennia.

Thoughts?

 

 

[Lenskij]

Hi, want to share my thoughts on the topic:

I think Odium doesn't want to chill on Roshar, he want to quickly splinter Shards here and go some over system to splinter shards there. So its unlikely that he would want to wait so long, there was no need. The whole Oathpact plan was going downhill anyway, there was a year or so between last 2 desolations, imagine another in a year, a half? and another...90% of population dead each. Humans would've been viped in a few years and Odium taken over Roshar like Braize. I'm not sure what does it mean in the battle of Shards tho. Maybe Odium actualy wanted Heralds to drop the pact to weaken Honor somehow. After he done in Honor, he could've easily splintered Cultivation, cos she is alone now, gather his power back and leave. But he couldn't, cos of the pact, I'm sure there's more to it, then simply holding void spren away, more like restricting power in different ways. So for humans the timing was quite lucky, I think. And all thanks to the Man, Talenelat'Elin, Stonesinew, Herald of War and Bearer of Agonies, who held peace by himself. No surprize Odium hates him.

[Calderis]

Except again, that contradicts both the words of the Sleepless, and Honor himself. 

[Ciridae]

Two quick questions. Do we know for certain that voidspren go to Braize after a Desolation ends? And what has kept singers from assuming Stormform and summoning the Everstorm in the past?

The Everstorm is such a convenient way to circumvent the Oathpact and nothing that we know of prevented singers from bonding the right spren and calling it in the past. And yet we're told that it wasn't possible in the past, but old in design. 

I wonder about voidspren on Braize as well, because why would they go to Braize? Fused are killed and go there automatically, but what about regular spren? And if they're not on Braize, Ulims escape and Talns arrival on Roshar might not be connected. And what is Cultivation doing? 

[MountainKing]

The Knight Radiants of old, with their farsight (Speculative ability) and teleportation.

[+Child of Hodor]

13 minutes ago, Ciridae said:

Two quick questions. Do we know for certain that voidspren go to Braize after a Desolation ends? And what has kept singers from assuming Stormform and summoning the Everstorm in the past?

The Everstorm is such a convenient way to circumvent the Oathpact and nothing that we know of prevented singers from bonding the right spren and calling it in the past. And yet we're told that it wasn't possible in the past, but old in design. 

I wonder about voidspren on Braize as well, because why would they go to Braize? Fused are killed and go there automatically, but what about regular spren? And if they're not on Braize, Ulims escape and Talns arrival on Roshar might not be connected. And what is Cultivation doing? 

We don't know that the lesser voidspren all went back. We know the Unmade did not.

We don't know why the Fused go back to Braize automatically if their bodies are destroyed, maybe because that is where Odium was "in residence" and once their physical connection to Roshar is broken via the body they inhabit being killed they are pulled back to where Odium is "in residence" on Braize. It could be the same for the voidspren that give Singers forms. Once their Singer is killed they are pulled back to Odium automatically. 

The Unmade may have a connection to Roshar from when they were Made before being Unmade. They are enough of a hybrid that they don't get pulled back. They also don't all possess or bond bodies. Yelig-Nar kind of does, but he kind of consumes people that consume him. 

Post WoR enough of Odium is in the Everstorm that the Fused and voidspren go back to the storm instead of Braize. 

[Leyrann]

1 hour ago, Calderis said:

Except again, that contradicts both the words of the Sleepless, and Honor himself. 

Or perhaps you're interpreting them wrong. The Aimians for certain are speculating (notice the questions and the "perhaps", rather than statements), and Honor could be referring to a variety of things; he might have been referring to problems among the Radiants, which is widely speculated to be one of the reasons if not the reason the Recreants happened. Remember that Honor, as far as we have seen, is not very good at seeing the future (though Cultivation is); how could he have known that, some two millennia in the future, mankind wouldn't be united under one ruler? If Sunmaker's empire had not fallen apart, that might very well have been the case.

But even if they do point towards Odium deliberately waiting, that does not mean that those two arguments immediately dismiss the many arguments brought against it in this thread. I think you do not give those other arguments enough credit at the moment.

Edited September 17, 2018 by Leyrann
typo

[Calderis]

27 minutes ago, Leyrann said:

Honor could be referring to a variety of things; he might have been referring to problems among the Radiants, which is widely speculated to be one of the reasons if not the reason the Recreants happened. Remember that Honor, as far as we have seen, is not very good at seeing the future (though Cultivation is); how could he have known that, some two millennia in the future, mankind wouldn't be united under one ruler? If Sunmaker's empire had not fallen apart, that might very well have been the case.

Except the visions were made after the Recreance.

Quote

Questioner [PENDING REVIEW]

Dalinar's visions are the memories of Honor, correct?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

Yes. Yes, they are things specifically created by Honor...

Questioner [PENDING REVIEW]

Does that mean that the Recreance happened before Honor's death... since Dalinar sees it?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW]

Yes. But Honor's death, like Preservation's death, is a protracted event.

source

Honor was dying, and he knew it. But the point at which those visions were made was once the Radiants were gone, and all he could do was plan for the future. 

He's not as good at future sight, by his own words, but all shards have it. 

He said the wait was intentional, after the fall of the Radiants themselves. What exactly could he have been referring to? 

[Leyrann]

2 minutes ago, Calderis said:

Except the visions were made after the Recreance.

Honor was dying, and he knew it. But the point at which those visions were made was once the Radiants were gone, and all he could do was plan for the future. 

He's not as good at future sight, by his own words, but all shards have it. 

He said the wait was intentional, after the fall of the Radiants themselves. What exactly could he have been referring to? 

He could still have been referring to present strife. There was plenty; the Recreance didn't change any of that, it just highlighted it. He could perhaps have seen the Sunmaker's conquering and have seen the possiblities of both a united Roshar and warring pieces, or the Shin invasions, the Hierocracy, etc. He could even have been giving a general warning with his knowledge of human nature.

All that said I do understand why you take this interpretation, and I agree that it is one of the more simple explanations. However, that alone doesn't mean it automatically discounts all arguments against this theory. It's only normal to have seemingly contrary arguments, and only by weighing both sides you can find out what's actually true. On top of that, Honor isn't all-knowing. It is possible that he just got this wrong, even if it is unlikely.

[Diomedes]

On 10.9.2018 at 8:44 PM, galendo said:

I think the issue is that some of us have the feeling that something more must be going on.  Otherwise the timing seems hard to explain.  Why 4500 years, rather than 4000?  Earlier seems like it would be better for Odium because:

1) Fewer Radiant spren and more distrust among the spren means fewer Radiants to fight.  Maybe even none at all.

2) Less convenient access to Blade/Plate (or, more accurately, less access to gemstones to recharge the Plate) means less Shard-based resistance to overcome.

3) Though the Parshendi population will recover faster than the humans, proportionately, the longer you wait, the worse it actually gets.  Say you wait several generations for the Parshendi population to grow from, say, 20,000 to 200,000 -- a tenfold increase.  If in the same time the human population only doubles from, say, 10,000,000 to 20,000,000, you're actually outnumbered by over 9,000,000 more people than you were previously.  Better proportional odds, but way worse odds overall.

4) Giving the humans more time gives them more opportunity to develop fabrial tech like spanreeds, half-shards, etc.  Give them too long and they won't even need Radiants to stand against your Fused.

In conclusion, it seems like Odium would have had way better chances to succeed if he'd attacked earlier.  I can easily buy that Odium wanted to wait for Honor to die and the Radiants to disband.  But waiting any longer seems foolish.  Much better to attack when the humans are less prepared, less numerous, less technologically advanced.  So why did he wait so long?

I had that theory that Odium is going to betray all Parshmen in the next book. He is really out to convince humanity to join his side. 

 Even if that theory is not true: Odium needs to convince a lot of Humans to join his cause to win. As you said, there are way more Humans than Parsh. And he is really convinced that he will win. He does not even believe he can loose. 

Essentially the way you put the conflict as Humans vs Parsh is a bit reductive. It`s Team Odium vs Team Honor. Humans and Singers fight on both sides. I believe Odium waited 4500 years to set up the human societies of Roshar. He let them corrupt their instititutions (Vorin church, shin council etc.) that they would be eager to join his side. Alethi culture especially is all about the game, the victory the thrill  of battle. All of this plays into Odiums hands. 

@Calderis Good job on compiling all these quotes and putting together the theory! I totally agree.  

 

Edited September 17, 2018 by Diomedes

[+Child of Hodor]

2 hours ago, Leyrann said:

He could still have been referring to present strife. There was plenty; the Recreance didn't change any of that, it just highlighted it. He could perhaps have seen the Sunmaker's conquering and have seen the possiblities of both a united Roshar and warring pieces, or the Shin invasions, the Hierocracy, etc. He could even have been giving a general warning with his knowledge of human nature.

This is somewhat of an aside, but I think the Hierocracy was a direct result of the visions Honor set up. Some of those other events like the Sunmaker trying to conquer the world may have been as well. 

Quote

The main goal of the Hierocracy was to unite the world in the Vorin faith; under the rule of the ardents.^[1  ... The most powerful ardents claimed to be receiving visions from the Almighty himself. These visions, which only the priests could receive helped to further solidify their control."  https://coppermind.net/wiki/Hierocracy

It sounds like one of the ardents started getting the visions from the Stormfather and tried to unite the world by any means necessary. Then other ardents started pretending they received visions too in order to stake a claim at power. 

I'm convinced Odium wanted a long break and engineered it by leaving 9 of the 10 alive. I'm not convinced the entire 4,500 years was what Odium wanted. But even Taln thinks he is late getting back this time. Now he's been gone a ridiculous amount of time, but "late" implies in comparison to when he should have gotten back. Like he didn't get back as quickly after he broke as he did the other times. 

Quote

“I think…I think I am late…this time…” How long had it been? How long had it been? How long had it been? How long had it been? How long had it been? How long had it been? How long had it been? Too long." WoR Interlude 7

In the Way of Kings epilogue Hoid rambles on about timeliness being important and then when Taln shows up and gives his warning that the Desolation comes Hoid tells Taln that he might be too late. Like his warning about the Desolation is late. This doesn't necessarily prove that Taln was artificially held up in coming back or that most all the 4,500 break was due to that, but it does fit with that theory. 

Quote

 "I fear you may be too late, my confused, unfortunate friend". - WoR Epilogue

 

[Calderis]

Almost like something kept him from returning when  he should have... 

[Ciridae]

Just now, Child of Hodor said:

It could be the same for the voidspren that give Singers forms. Once their Singer is killed they are pulled back to Odium automatically. 

That's certainly possible, but what about spren like Yixli and Ulim that don't seem to bond to singers? I really like your reasoning for why unmade stay. 

I've had a theory that some voidspren like Yixli hide between Desolations and have been hiding out in Shinovar, guiding the Shin as the "spren of stone". 

Either way, I think to kick off a Desolation it would have to be a Fused that was allowed to go free. What if Ulim was actually on Braize, was able to escape, but because of the details of the Oathpact his escape did not directly cause all Fused to be able to return. 

Ulim had been working with Venli for years before Taln arrived, so I think it's safe to say that him leaving wherever he was, did not qualify as Taln breaking. 

Taln actually arrives at a weird time. No major events came before that could be connected to either him breaking or Odium deciding it had been long enough and letting him go.

[Naurock]

On 9/17/2018 at 4:30 PM, Ciridae said:

Taln actually arrives at a weird time. No major events came before that could be connected to either him breaking or Odium deciding it had been long enough and letting him go.

Or that's just how Honor and Cultivation made the Oathpact work. To help Humans get a jump start for when the Desolation starts.

[Meganagem]

On 9/17/2018 at 9:47 PM, Calderis said:

Almost like something kept him from returning when  he should have... 

This made me LOL, after reading all the back and forth here.... 

The short answer to your OP is: Maybe, maybe not. End of.

 

[Steeldancer]

So sorry to disappoint the various proponents of this theory, but I asked brandon about when Taln broke last night. He didn't want to put an exact date on it, due to not having written Taln's book yet, but he said it was during or in the preceding months of the events of WoK, meaning the idea of Taln being "held back" is false. It does sound like it took him a while to get to Roshar, so it looks like I was right about him possibly having sat around Braize for a while before heading to Kholinar, which would be why he was late. Now of course Calderis is still insisting that Taln might not have been tortured as much as the other heralds were normally, but I still disagree with that. While I agree with the idea that Odium did benefit from waiting so long, this confirmation increases the chances that Odium is simply taking advantage of the situation he is given, not that he specifically orchestrated Taln to break exactly when he did. 

[Leyrann]

3 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

So sorry to disappoint the various proponents of this theory, but I asked brandon about when Taln broke last night. He didn't want to put an exact date on it, due to not having written Taln's book yet, but he said it was during or in the preceding months of the events of WoK, meaning the idea of Taln being "held back" is false. It does sound like it took him a while to get to Roshar, so it looks like I was right about him possibly having sat around Braize for a while before heading to Kholinar, which would be why he was late. Now of course Calderis is still insisting that Taln might not have been tortured as much as the other heralds were normally, but I still disagree with that. While I agree with the idea that Odium did benefit from waiting so long, this confirmation increases the chances that Odium is simply taking advantage of the situation he is given, not that he specifically orchestrated Taln to break exactly when he did. 

Even though I'm happy to see this (I didn't like @Calderis's theory) this does make me wonder:

Taln breaking and the Alethi discovering the Parshendi is seemingly unrelated. Why did it happen so close together?

[Steeldancer]

Just now, Leyrann said:

Even though I'm happy to see this (I didn't like @Calderis's theory) this does make me wonder:

Taln breaking and the Alethi discovering the Parshendi is seemingly unrelated. Why did it happen so close together?

Well I think that took place about 5 years before the main events of WoK, right? So that isn't so close together as to make me super suspicious of the coincidence, but idk. Maybe there's something there, maybe there isn't. I mean, the spren and even the diagram knew Taln was close to breaking and that the desolations were close at hand. Not sure how they were able to sense that, but there might be something there.