Quick Fix Game 33 - Deception: Murder in the Cosmere

[I think I am here. he/him]

"And that is why, without a doubt in my mind, I am 100% sure that Walin is the murderer," Itiah VII proclaimed his 40th accusation today, a bottle of whiskey in one hand, and a stick he found on the ground in the other. Taking another swig, only adding to his drunken stupor, Itiah stood on his spanreed for extra height, pointing his stick at the murderer. Everyone stilled.

"Who's Walin?" One of them asked.

Oh yeah, Itiah thought, chugging another bottle and bringing up the next. We're all in a game. "I mean Higsedal."

Gasps erupted from the crowd, another NPC stepping forward. "You've claimed to be the witness. You've made everything more complicated. You've accused a dozen and a half people in ridiculous ways. Why should we believe you now?"

"Because I'm right." At that, Itiah VII took another drunken chug, swaying heavily side-to-side as he pondered whether it was possible to escape his existence, and become more than words on a page. Stupid thoughts. Itiah knew that. Yet he still wondered. It gave him a sort of purpose, and Itiah was sure sooner or later his writer would use it as a clunky exposition tool. He was right.

But he drank, and he accused, and he laughed. Who cared if your life ended as soon as the game did?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 hours ago, Elandera said:

Seeing as it's not "all-over," we can probably remove explosion (including ettmetal explosion).

Along with explosions, we can probably remove animals that would have eaten a corpse, which are Nightmaw, Whitespine, Mistwraith, Deepwalker, Chasmfiend, and possibly Hemalurgic Chimera and/or Firesnap lizards. I would say we could also remove fire.

4 hours ago, randuir said:

The only head related wilderness accident that is necessary I can think of would be Dehydration. Could it be Dehyrdation/hoofprints on cadcom?

I would be willing to guess Dehydration/hoofprints if Bort's guess is incorrect. I think that fits the clues better than combinations such as Acid/boots, Firesnap lizards/footprint, Cut-away vines/Wetleek sap trail, or Patji's finger/saddle strap.

[Herowannabe he/him]

6 hours ago, Bort said:

@Herowannabe

I would like to make an accusation! I accuse Randuir of being the assassin. I think he got high on Firemoss, and Kicked his victim to death, leaving behind a bloody footprint on his victim's face. All so he could fund his filthy habit... Randuir, I'm disappointed in you

No.

[Bort he/him]

Dammit Randuir. You made me wrong. I'm even more disappointed now

 

[Paranoid King he/him]

So there are a few clues we didn't really use last round. Despicable, untidy, and necessity. We did use footprint pretty heavily, though.

The fact that the oracle replaced footprint means that he would rather replace that than a clue we weren't using. That means footprint was leading us in the wrong direction. With that in mind, Here's all the clues that we related to footprint yesterday.

Creatures, Steelrunning, Kick, Deepwalker, boots, horseshoes, footprint, weetleek sap, hoofprints, Crab legs, dirt, dust, saddle strap

So here's my revised list, without all that stuff.

Spoiler

Light gray - Not related to accident
Gray - Ruled out by removal of footprint
Underlined - Related to wilderness/head

	Player Name	Methods of Murder	Pieces of Evidence
1	Elandera / Oyh	Sword, Deathweed Bark, Meekers, Dreok's Axe, Aon Daa (Power),	Axehound Pup, Bullet Casings, Aluminum Hat, Ancient Text, Tears of Edgli Flowers,
2	MetaTerminal / Felksi	Fenweed Poison, Rathbore Monk, Scarf, Koloss Blade, Surgebinding,	White Sand, Withered Hand, Singed Cloak, Aviar Feather, Message Written in Blood,
3	Snipexe / The Witness	Steelrunning, Nightmaw, Nightblood, Midnight Essence, Poisoned Wine,	Pet Monkey, Red Flag, Ceremonial Bowl, Piece of Ralkalest, Religious Text,
4	Droughtbringer / In	Bloodsealing, Metal Poisoning, Rioting, Dagger, Punch,	Water Bottle, Chull Dung, Vandalism, Dust, False Beard,
5	Madagascar / Mad	Acid, Dueling Cane, Bow & Arrow, Ettmetal Explosion, Aimian,	Children’s Book, Cracked Gemstone, Fancy Dress, Larkin Corpse, Boots,
6	Steeldancer / Squid of Steel	Skeletals, Enhanced Strength, Poisoned Needle, Backbreaker Powder, Atium,	Ice, Blood, Straw Man, Scorch marks, Vandalized Statue,
7	Paranoid King / The Ghost of John Smith	Blackbane Leaf, Deathants, Birchbane, Whitespine, Awakened Rope,	Triangular Razors, Aon Kii, Pot of Stew, Aon Ashe Plate, Spectacles,
8	Randuir / Holmlock Shears	Bare Hands, Burned at the Stake, Obsidian Axe, Swampvine, Kick,	Tattoo, Survivor Pendant, Crem , Firemoss, Hairpin,
9	I Think I am Here. / Itiah VII	Lost Divine Breath, Dakhor Ritual, Shades, Blood Loss, Venomous Bite,	Horseshoes, Stick, Empty Vial, Ink, Spanreed,
10	Bort / May Bebort	Jeskeri Cult Ritual, Booby Trap, Mistwraith, Grandbow, Firesnap Lizards,	Bones, Footprint, Cigar Case, RaiDel Pepper, Lavis Beer,
11	Rathmaskal / Harry	Hemalurgic Chimera, Smoke, Toxic Fungus, Glass Dagger, Air-powered Crossbow,	Artifact, Scorch Marks, Dirt, Priest’s Robes, Fashion Magazine,
12	Devotary of Spontaneity / Fourth of the Twilight	Poisoned Dart, Cut-away vines, Torture, Highstorm, Shardplate,	Broadsheet, Aon Reo, Crab Legs, Map, Wetleek Sap Trail,
13	A Joe in the Bush / Various Divide	Beheading, Shardblade, Cliff, Deepwalker, Betrayal,	Medallion, Lockpicks, Safehand Glove, Soulstamp, Shu-Korath Pendant,
14	Kidpen / Alvron	Duel, Hammer, Patji’s Finger, Strangle, Hook,	Aonic Dictionary, Purple Blood Droplets, MaiPon Sticks, Saddle Strap, Lak,
15	Cadmium Compounder / Spork	Soulcasting, Explosion, Lifeless Soldier, Rifle, Dehydration,	Hoofprints, Glow Paste, Wig, Smoke, Rotspren,
16	Walin / Higsedal	The Shaod, Chasmfiend, Black Frayn, Fire, Martial Arts,	Forged Painting, Infused Spheres, A'kar's Symbol, Lamp, Skull,

Speaking of which, @Kidpen, what is a lak? I can't find any info anywhere on it.

[Rathmaskal he/him]

I believe Lak is a currency on Taldain.  I'm going to work through a post here and edit it in unless there's a few responses.

Edited part:

As I've been analyzing things, I believe there are a few people we can eliminate due to that fact that either all of their methods of murder or all of their pieces of evidence can be eliminated by at least one clue:

Droughtbringer - I'm eliminating due to methods of murder all not fitting

• Bloodsealing - no way that's an accident
• Metal Poisoning - I'd think this would fall under poisoning
• Rioting - not really thinking this would be an accident either...but I guess I'm open to someone opening this back up if they feel strongly about it
• Dagger - not an accident
• Punch - not an accident

Randuir - I'm eliminating due to methods of murder all not fitting

• Bare Hands - definitely not an accident
• Burned at the Stake - ...
• Obsidian Axe - ...
• Swampvine - would probably go under poison
• Kick - definitely not an accident

Rathmaskal -

Devotary of Spontaneity - I'm eliminating due to methods of murder all not fitting

• Poisoned Dart - would probably go under poison
• Cut-away vines - they could go under accident, but I'd imagine loss of blood or severe injury more likely...I'm open to opening this back up
• Torture - Again, I'd probably see this as another cause
• Highstorm - Could be an accident, but then you'd need something for sure with head and footprint in the evidence...
• Shardplate - Could be an accident, but I'm going with severe injury MUCH more likely.

I have 2 more to go through later.  (A Joe in the Bush and Walin) Need to head out for a bit though.

Edited September 6, 2018 by Rathmaskal
As promised

[Rathmaskal he/him]

Since it's been an hour, even though no one has posted, I figured I'd make a new post for the reasoning on the last two...

A Joe in the Bus - I'm eliminating due to evidence (combined with methods of murder) - since none of the methods of murder would imply footprints to me, it seems that the evidence MUST have that as a component.

• Medallion - nope
• Lockpicks - nope
• Safehand Glove - nope
• Soulstamp - nope
• Shu-Korath Pendant - nope

Walin - I'm eliminating due to methods of murder all not fitting

• The Shaod - Even if this fits the rest of the clues, it doesn't provide us a method to get to footprint as none of Walin's evidence would provide that
• Chasmfiend - Would think this would end up being injury rather than accident...I'm OK with opening this back up if someone feels strongly though - would require a pairing with skull I would think to make sure that 'head' is included...although skull is supposed to be evidence while head is supposed to be on the corpse...so that seems like a bit of a stretch
• Black Frayn - Drug...seems likely to be poisoning at this point though, although accident I guess is plausible.  Regardless, lose any chance of footprints showing up.
• Fire - I don't think this fits anywhere very well
• Martial Arts - seems unlikely to be an accident.

Whew.  I'll keep looking at things to see if I think anyone else can be eliminated.  Feel free to let me know if you think any of these are off...

[Madagascar]

Ruling out everything that would be better described by the other methods is definitely good. People have done this, right? I think people have done this but I'm not sure because currently Mad's head is exploding from all her very important chemistry forensic piggology. Luckily there's no rush so I can have the Pet Bird keep pecking away at it in the meantime.

[Rathmaskal he/him]

OK folks, I'm not sure if I'm eliminating too much or not, but I'm down to 2 more likely combinations.  If it's neither of these two, then I'll probably start over completely with my analysis.  The clue I'm having the most trouble with is 'necessity'...the nice thing is that even after making an accusation, I still get to talk! 

Paranoid King - Whitespine, Spectacles

CadCom - Lifeless Soldier, Wig

So, @Herowannabe, I would like to make an accusation!

Paranoid King, with the Whitespine in the Spectacles!

[Herowannabe he/him]

4 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

So, @Herowannabe, I would like to make an accusation!

Paranoid King, with the Whitespine in the Spectacles!

No. 

[MetaTerminal he/him]

We now have only 10 guesses left and have 4 eliminated possibilities. I’d caution against making another guess until Cycle 3 unless you’re absolutely sure. And maybe share your idea with others to make sure it holds up?

I’ll post some combos that look suspicious to me later.

[Paranoid King he/him]

2 hours ago, MetaTerminal said:

We now have only 10 guesses left and have 4 eliminated possibilities. I’d caution against making another guess until Cycle 3 unless you’re absolutely sure. And maybe share your idea with others to make sure it holds up?

Yeah, pretty much this. We get more info the longer we wait, so guessing too early means you miss out on a lot of clues.

My top guesses right now are:

Rioting/Water bottle   // I imagine lots of accidental deaths happen due to rioting
cliff/medallion   // But not cliff/pendant, because the clue would have said the motive was love
Shades/stick   // Because I might as well make sure.

[Elandera she/her]

2 hours ago, Paranoid King said:

Yeah, pretty much this. We get more info the longer we wait, so guessing too early means you miss out on a lot of clues.

My top guesses right now are:

Rioting/Water bottle   // I imagine lots of accidental deaths happen due to rioting
cliff/medallion   // But not cliff/pendant, because the clue would have said the motive was love
Shades/stick   // Because I might as well make sure.

Part of why I crossed rioting off the list is, to me, it would fall better under supernatural rather than accident. Also, I hesitate to go with cliff since that would be more of an 'all over' clue on body rather than just the head.

[Paranoid King he/him]

18 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Part of why I crossed rioting off the list is, to me, it would fall better under supernatural rather than accident. Also, I hesitate to go with cliff since that would be more of an 'all over' clue on body rather than just the head.

Oh, I get where you're coming from. I'm thinking mobs in the streets, government overthrow, that sort of thing. You're thinking allomantic zinc.

It would be an "all over" clue if we were just looking at cliff. But Joe has evidence the oracle has to get us to guess, too. Medallion fits under head, even if cliff doesn't. Note that the clue says hint on corpse, not location of injury.

[Madagascar]

Next round, I'm thinking of torturing Fourth of the Twilight based on cutaway vines and either crab legs or wetleek  sap trail or something else entirely in the hopes of getting a confession. Or perhaps Dehydration/Hoofprints. Open to suggestions.

[I think I am here. he/him]

But what about Aon Aon?

I know it’s not a murder weapon or evidence but I really feel I’m getting close.

No, wait!

BEHEADING!

oh. my. god

I just figured it out.

I know my purpose.

Beheading would obviously be an accident, no? Duh, no one purposely beheads someone, it’s usually an accident, like in the case of Einstein or whatever.

And I know what you’re thinking: “But what about the necessity?” We’ll, I’ve got an answer. What if the murderer had a loan to the victim? It would be his NEED to kill the victim to be free of the loan It all clicks.

Hit on corpse: head: Obviously fits.

Footprints: Fits

Everything fits! Wow!

Coupled with Fashion Magazine as evidence and I think I just might be onto something here.

And remember: I may or may not be the witness, which means I may or may not be subtly hinting to at least one actual murderer/murder tool.

Trust me, I bet the elims are so confused right now.

 

 

 

 

(Also, trust me here. I would lay off Randuir and Droughtbringer for the time being)

Edited September 7, 2018 by I think I am here.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I want to focus more on this head clue, the one that replaced the Footprint. First of all, I think that Hint on corpse refers specifically to Evidence, and not at all to the Method of Murder. If we had been focusing on the wrong cause of death, if we had decided that the correct cause couldn’t have been an accident, then Hero would have changed the Cause of Death tile. Since he didn’t I think we can safely say we focusing on the right kills. It’s the evidence we’re not getting correct.

So I’m going to go through and remove all evidence that relates to footprints, because that was misleading us, and only focus on Head stuff.

Elandera* has an Aluminum Hat. Droughtbringer has a False Beard. Paranoid King has Spectacles. Randuir has a Hairpin. Cadmium Compounder has a Wig. Walin has a Skull.

Some of you have said that I have a medallion, but Medallions rest on the Chest, not on the head. And none of my other evidence fits Head.

So I think the Murderer is one of those 6. Back to the Method of Murder being a Necessary .Accident in the Wilderness. Done Despicably and Untidely.

Elandera has a Sword, Deathweed Bark, Meekers, Dreok’s Ake, and Aon Daa. Only Deathweed Bark and Meekers fit Wilderness, but Deathweed Bark is Poisonous, so not an Accident. I originally disregarded Meekers as being Wild animals, and therefore killing through Loss of Blood or Severe Injury. But If you read their Coppermind page they could fit despicable, necessary, untidy, and accident. Sixth of Dust has been attempting to train them to bite people. Which is Despicable, but necessary. Any death by wild animals will be untidy. Sixth of Dusk is not training them to kill people though, so if they did, it would be an accident. This one is really unlikely, but maybe possible?

Droughtbringer has Bloodsealing, Metal Poisoning, Rioting, Dagger, and Punch. Bloodsealing and Rioting are both Supernatural, though Rioting could easily accidently kill someone. Metal poisoning is Poison, and a Dagger is loss of blood severe injury. That leaves Punch and Rioting. Punch, I don’t see how Punch is Necessary, Untidy, or Despicable. Rioting, if I stretch it and combine it with False beard, could work. Droughtbringer is disguised, and when someone realizes that, he need to hide, so he riots someone to cause a distraction, killing someone. This one is the least likely of my guesses, and I’m inclined to throw it out all together.

Paranoid King has Blackbane Leaf, Deathants, Birchbane, Whitespine, and Awakened Rope. Blackbane and Birchbane are poisons. Whitespine in Spectacles has already been guessed. Deathants kill with poison. Awakened Rope is passive enough that I can see it being an accident, especially since Vivenna nearly slew Tonk Fah with one in Warbreaker. Combined with Untidy and Spectacles, it works better. It would grab the neck and head and squeeze, and knock off the victim’s spectacles. But that method of death also fits Suffocation better than accident. So that one is the least unlikely of my guesses.

Randuir has Bare hands, Burned at the Stake, Obsidian Axe, Swampvine, and Kick. Burned at the Stake is Severe injury, and never ever an accident. Obsidian Axe is Blood loss and/or Severe Injury. Swampvine kills with Poison. That leaves Kick and Bare hands. Bare hands is iffy, it sounds to intentional. People boast about killing with bare hands. But Kick could work easily enough, and combined with accident fits Despicable. The missing Hairpin fits untidy, but nothing about this fits Necessary.

Cadmium Compounder has Soulcasting, Explosion, Lifeless, Solier, Rifle, and Dehydration. Soulcasting is Supernatural, and Rifle is Severe Injury. Uh, the other three fit accident. Explosion fits Untidy, Necessary, and accident. We use explosives all the time and occasionally accidently kill someone with them. Lifeless Soldier fits Untidy, Despicable Accident. CC didn’t take care of the Lifeless soldier, and didn’t make sure his commands were understood, so it killed the wrong guy. Though I think Hero would have gone with something other than accident for that one. Dehydration fits Necessary and Despicable. Two men, not enough Water, Cadmium drank it all, and didn’t realize his victim needed more of it to survive.

Walin has the Shaod, Chasmfiend, Black Frayn, Fire, martial arts. Shaod is Supernatural, Chasmfiend is Severe Injury, Black Frayn is sickness, Martial arts is not an accident. Fire fits really well with Skull though. Fire can be accidental, necessary, untidy, and despicable. It doesn’t fit too well, since that seems more like a severe injury. Really unlikely that it’s this one.

 

 

My Guesses in order of most likely to least likely:

Cadmium Compounder with a Wig and Dehydration.

Randuir with a Hairpin and Kick.

Cadmium Compounder with a Wig and Explosion

Elandera with Meekers and an Aluminum Hat.

Droughtbringer with Rioting and False Beard.

Paranoid King with Awakened Rope and Spectacles.

Walin with a Skull and Fire.

 

Does anyone offer any objections to any of these? Or better ideas?

[DeTess she/her]

40 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

 

Does anyone offer any objections to any of these? Or better ideas?

I don't disagree with your method, and your conclusions are logical, but I don't think we can quite disregard the footprint clue. It was there with a reason, after all.

[Paranoid King he/him]

2 minutes ago, randuir said:

I don't think we can quite disregard the footprint clue. It was there with a reason, after all.

But the fact that the oracle discarded it means that it was doing nothing for us or was leading us in the wrong direction. Sometimes the oracle just makes mistakes or sees obscure connections we don't consider. In that case, footprint points us away far more than towards the evidence.

[Rathmaskal he/him]

Harry was disappointed...  He'd tried for a big reveal, but was immediately shot down.  The person he accused hadn't even reacted!  Maybe he needed a catch phrase next time...  "EUREKA!"  Hmm, no, too cliche.

"AHA!"  Even worse.

"Why, it's just this simple."  Hmmm, not bad

"And that's how the cookie crumbles."  Nope...overused.

"Game.  Set.  Match."  Needed more sports fans.  What was a set anyway?

*sigh* one day he'd get his breakthrough.

~~

The one issue I have with your reasoning is that you now seem to be completely discounting the footprint clue.  (looks like randuir just ninjaed me on this point)  It was still a valid clue.  Hence, why I would leave Lifeless Soldier in there with a higher likelihood.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

43 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I want to focus more on this head clue, the one that replaced the Footprint. First of all, I think that Hint on corpse refers specifically to Evidence, and not at all to the Method of Murder. If we had been focusing on the wrong cause of death, if we had decided that the correct cause couldn’t have been an accident, then Hero would have changed the Cause of Death tile. Since he didn’t I think we can safely say we focusing on the right kills. It’s the evidence we’re not getting correct.

 

Cadmium Compounder with a Wig and Dehydration.
Randuir with a Hairpin and Kick.
Cadmium Compounder with a Wig and Explosion
Elandera with Meekers and an Aluminum Hat.
Droughtbringer with Rioting and False Beard.
Paranoid King with Awakened Rope and Spectacles.
Walin with a Skull and Fire.

The Location and Cause of Death tiles cannot be removed, so Hero had to choose one of the other four tiles. I assume from PK's comments that Oracle's remove clues specifically because they're misleading, and not because the Investigators have already gotten all relevant information out of that clue, but perhaps anyone else who has played the base game can confirm?

Supposing 'Footprint' was merely the least bad clue out of a completely useless and misleading scene tile, we would have to check that none of these proposed solutions could possibly be represented by fingerprint, bruises, blood stain, body fluid, or residual investiture. I would say that an Awakened rope and possibly allomantic rioting would fit better under residual investiture than footprint, while dehydration could be represented by body fluid (or rather, the lack of them). 

[Paranoid King he/him]

8 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Harry was disappointed...  He'd tried for a big reveal, but was immediately shot down.  The person he accused hadn't even reacted! 

I'm shocked, appalled, and horrified

That you think I'm the crook!

I hope that once the villain's spied,

You'll let me off the hook.

14 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

The one issue I have with your reasoning is that you now seem to be completely discounting the footprint clue. It was still a valid clue.  Hence, why I would leave Lifeless Soldier in there with a higher likelihood.

Imagine you're the oracle. You give a clue, and people come up with 25 wrong and one right possibility from it. Meanwhile, they get nothing from one of your other clues. You would have no reason to discard the first clue.

Hypothetically, the first clue is footprint. The second clue is despicable. Despicable has so far pointed to...nothing by the end of D1. (Unless you count itiah's posts.)

There is no reason you would discard footprint if it told us anything useful. That's why I ruled out footprint clues.

[Madagascar]

Or maybe he shuffled around footprint because we'd already gotten what we needed from that but still wanted us to focus on things like Despicable instead. I cannot read the Oracle's mind, especially since he's too far away to torture and society frowns on torturing crime victims for some reason, and nor can anyone else here, so I think that either explanation is likely.

[CadCom he/him]

Hey everyone. I will have limited time to continue analysis, sorry. I want to just let you all know that I was not the Murderer (IKYK) and that I'll try to get on some time during D3 in order to place a vote, but due to lack of analysis, It might not be the best vote. I've done some analysis, but it doesn't give me any strong enough guess to try to place it now either.

[Madagascar]

I'd be happy to help give suggestions to help you figure out what to pick if you're busy. I'm definitely not the murderer and I would never try to lead your accusations astray with fake helpfulness and double-faced shows of friendliness.