Quick Fix Game 30: Manywar

[Elenion he/him]

1 hour ago, MacThorstenson said:

After having time to read through the thread I am going to have to vote on Arinian. At the very least until he provides actual justification for voting on drought.

At least I made my random vote using an RNG, he just placed a vote on drought for the sole reason that they are placing a vote on him.

For a little bit of analysis, wouldn't at least one of the eliminators have placed votes on one of the people who had 2 votes on them? There is a minimum of 2 votes for a lynch, and if the elims had planned from the beginning to not use the elim kill they would have tried to get someone lynched. They wouldn't have wanted to go a cycle without killing someone. 

Hmmm... that actually makes a lot of sense.

29 minutes ago, RippleGylf said:

Arinian.

Your defense talks a lot about avoiding suspicion, Mac. And while it is natural in these games to try to avoid suspicion out of self-preservation no matter what side you're on, you put a lot of emphasis on it.

Here's a soft defense of the guy I have my vote on (lol), but when I'm village I put a lot of emphasis on avoiding suspicion, because I always accrue so many bad gut reads. I'm more concerned with Arinian's defensiveness than Mac's.

While I'm holding my vote on Mac for now, I'm fine with an Arinian lynch and I might move my vote later.

@Devotary of Spontaneity There is definitely the potential for an Awakener to reveal to an elim, but since there's only 3 or 4 elims (depending on whether you use 20% or square-root) in a field of 16, the odds are in their favor even if you don't factor in analysis. I think it would be worth the risk.

[Straw he/him]

Hmm. Currently, here’s how I’d rate these people (in order of suspicion):

1. Mac. Threw an extra vote on Randuir (without much reasoning, if I recall correctly), and seems to be focusing on avoiding all suspicion. Now, I did originally put a vote on Randuir, but that was mainly as a revenge vote that I thought would do no harm due to the fact that I thought no one else would vote on Randuir.

2. Arinian. I don’t really have a good reason for this, but I have an Elim gut read on him.

3. Monster. He voted on me, and seems to be trying to discourage analysis. Also seems to be referencing the meta a lot.

[Shqueeves]

38 minutes ago, MacThorstenson said:

The reason I'm focusing on avoiding suspicion is that in my last game I gained some, then I wasn't able to get rid of it and I was the C1 lynch. Which kinda sucked. On cycle one I was just focusing on surviving the first day so I tried to do things to minimize suspicion.

Something in this seems so very off to me. For now, Mac

Edited March 1, 2018 by Shqueeves
Stupid color on mobile

[Arinian]

Well, it's pretty usual for me to do illogical things in QFs (and by doing that I'm starting to look elimy ).

1 hour ago, MacThorstenson said:

After having time to read through the thread I am going to have to vote on Arinian. At the very least until he provides actual justification for voting on drought.. 

Hmm... do you like droughts? I don't like droughts, no I'm not saying that I don't like this one exact drought, but... not best explanation. Probably you should stop paying attention to me, I'm villager but looks like my head not in place 

[RippleGylf she/her]

18 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Hmmm... that actually makes a lot of sense.

Here's a soft defense of the guy I have my vote on (lol), but when I'm village I put a lot of emphasis on avoiding suspicion, because I always accrue so many bad gut reads. I'm more concerned with Arinian's defensiveness than Mac's.

See, it's not so much that Mac was trying to avoid suspicion as it is that he's using that as his defense. The logic being, 'I'm not suspicious since I was just trying not to look suspicious.' It just doesn't hold up to me.

Updated vote count:

Mac (4): Elenion, RippleGylf, Straw, Shqueeves

Arinian (2): Drought, Mac

Straw (1): Monster

Drought (1): Arinian

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Straw, i don't really think that cuts it. Some eliminators have taken opportunities like that before. I can see you setting up Rand like that hoping this would happen.

[Coop772]

Hmm, I'm not sure how much I agree with all the Mac votes (there are 4) since he is doing a lot more both in terms of analysis and RP than many others. On the other hand, I feel like I should probably reevaluate Mac and Monster, since I have a slight bias towards them b/c they are fun to RP with. Arinian, as I understand, is just being normal Arinian weird, not elim weird. as of now, I feel like Straw is one of the better candidates. Please do more RP if you have time, everyone

[MacThorstenson he/him]

2 minutes ago, RippleGylf said:

See, it's not so much that Mac was trying to avoid suspicion as it is that he's using that as his defense. The logic being, 'I'm not suspicious since I was just trying not to look suspicious.' It just doesn't hold up to me

I'm not trying to say that I'm not suspicious, Using an RNG was suspicious. I freely admit that. I'm trying to explain my reasoning behind doing what I did and show you guys that in my mind it was the least suspicious route available.

No matter who I put my vote on, I would have been suspected for something. Placing a vote like that will give people suspicions. Placing it on someone without any votes or justification as my last post for the night would have been weird. Setting the outcome of the lynch by placing it on someone with 2 votes would have been ultra suspicious. Being the only person in the cycle who didn't vote on someone would have drawn suspicion like bee's to honey. I couldn't find justification in my mind for one remaining person over another so I used an RNG so I wouldn't feel guilty. Even if the person didn't die, that still would have been suspicious.

[Straw he/him]

Interesting. If I end up dead, I’d recommend considering lynching Joe, Coop, or Mac. The two sudden votes for me could definitely be Joe and Coop trying to save Mac from being lynched. Also, @A Joe in the Bush, does that reasoning also apply to everyone who put the first vote on a player who turned out to be village? @Coop772 would you mind explaining to me why you’re suspicious of me?

[Coop772]

TBH, I am trying to protect Mac, but not b/c we are elims. I am protecting him b/c he has lots of good input, even if some of it is RP. As for why I suspect you, I vaguely remember lots of people being suspicious of you before, but I will Straw for now until I can check

 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

2 minutes ago, Straw said:

Interesting. If I end up dead, I’d recommend considering lynching Joe, Coop, or Mac. The two sudden votes for me could definitely be Joe and Coop trying to save Mac from being lynched. Also, @A Joe in the Bush, does that reasoning also apply to everyone who put the first vote on a player who turned out to be village? @Coop772 would you mind explaining to me why you’re suspicious of me?

It applies to the people who voted for, say, lopen, elenion, or randuir. You are proof that a single vote can easily lead to a bandwagon, and i know you have experienced that in previous games.

Also, has anyone asked Drake what happens if the elims kill the player who gets lynched? I have, but he hasn't answered yet.

[Straw he/him]

@A Joe in the Bush how exactly is two a bandwagon? In my experience, bandwagons tend to be cases where a large number of players vote for a certain person without much in-depth analysis.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

6 minutes ago, Straw said:

@A Joe in the Bush how exactly is two a bandwagon? In my experience, bandwagons tend to be cases where a large number of players vote for a certain person without much in-depth analysis.

3 people have voted on you now. That is at i was referring to. Though coop did retract before i posted.

I see bandwagon as just a sudden crowd of votes

[Elenion he/him]

14 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

It applies to the people who voted for, say, lopen, elenion, or randuir. You are proof that a single vote can easily lead to a bandwagon, and i know you have experienced that in previous games.

Also, has anyone asked Drake what happens if the elims kill the player who gets lynched? I have, but he hasn't answered yet.

I was under the impression it was just action failure, but if you get a different answer make sure to announce it.

Arinian set off my elim radar at first this cycle, but now he's starting to sound more like his usual self. And for Mac, he's got a good path of reasoning to use RNG, so I'm thinking he's not the best lynch. Mac[=color]

[Coop772]

I need to vote someone so I don't die, but don't have time to analyze things, so if someone could suggest who I should vote for

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

While Mac misstated some information in his post (His vote on Randuir came before Monster,livinglegend, and Joe had voted), his explanation makes me more inclined to believe that he's a villager. There have definitely been times where I've wanted to use RNG rather than rereading the thread for hours searching for someone to vote on. For the time being, I will vote on Shquueves. He placed the fourth vote on Mac for the latter's statement that he wanted to do his best to avoid being lynched C1 twice in a row.

With around five and a half left in the cycle, @livinglegend, @Bort, @BrightnessRadiant, and @Ecthelion III have not yet voted.  @Coop772 and @Elenion are also at risk despite having previously voted. Please get your votes in so you don't die.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Umm, this may come off as suspicious, but I didn't even realize there was no eliminator kill. I guess I forgot that the kill was supposed to happen at the same time as the lynch, since this is a QF. So, yeah, I think the possibilities for why there was no kill have already been laid out, so I don't have anything to add.

Here is a vote tally:

Mac(3): Ripple, Straw, Shqueeves
Straw(2): Monster, Joe
Arinian(2): Drought, Mac
Shqueeves(1): Devotary
Drought(1): Arinian
Devotary(1): Lopen

I think I'm going to remove my vote from Shqueeves and place it on Devotary. Shqueeves saying he didn't particularly care who died actually struck me as village, although I can't say I like the attitude.

Anyways, I'm voting for Devotary because I feel like he's in that category of posting and being active but not drawing any attention that eliminators often fit into. (Also he totally ninja'd me with that list of who hasn't voted yet >>)

Edited March 2, 2018 by TheMightyLopen
fixed vote tally

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

31 minutes ago, Coop772 said:

I need to vote someone so I don't die, but don't have time to analyze things, so if someone could suggest who I should vote for

Vote for someone who has no votes, but be prepared to change it if others copy you.

[Coop772]

good idea, but I'm not going to. Due to various conversations and some general fear of death, I am going to go for Shqueeves for tonight. It's not 100% malicious, but I don't want to get inactivity killed. sorry man

[Shqueeves]

52 minutes ago, Coop772 said:

good idea, but I'm not going to. Due to various conversations and some general fear of death, I am going to go for Shqueeves for tonight. It's not 100% malicious, but I don't want to get inactivity killed. sorry man

I'm almost okay with you using me to help you stay alive this cycle. However, don't do it next cycle. Instead vote with the intent of lynching someone

[Coop772]

Thanks. TBH, I am to a degree, but it's more just a mostly harmless way to act on one of my suspicions.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Drake Marshall has responded that the writeup will state if the victim is lynched and attacked. So Rand was not attacked.

It would be nice if the awakeners could talk to eachother in the dead doc, share respective roleblocks, and have ONE of them share those targets with a trusted source. Then we still get the list of targets without more than 1 awakener risking being revealed.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Mkay so I didn't get a chance to vote earlier like I said I would because real life stuff came up...gimme a minute to look things over

[MacThorstenson he/him]

I know this is going to be suspicious, but I have to do it if I am going to live. This will also be my final vote for the night. I need to go to bed so I can get at least 6 hours of sleep.

I need to vote on either straw or shqueeves so that the tied vote takes away some chance of me dying.

Shqueeves has said that he didn't care who died and that made lopen vote on him. Shqueeves also said that something felt off about my post that said that I was just trying to survive.

Straw, on the other had we have even less about. He voted on Randuir as revenge, not expecting anyone else to vote for him. He also said to watch out for me coop and Joe. He voted on me because of my vote on Randuir even after I explained that I was the best choice available to me and didn't retract it. 

Sorry Straw.

[Ecthelion III he/him]

My time on here's been a bit limited with the end of the last term and the start of the new term today. I'll put a meaningless vote down on Elenion until I have time to look things over. Sorry!