Mid-Range Game 27: Quarantine

[Elenion]

Hey, I just had an absolute crackpot theory, but I think it will work.

Assumption 1: Len, Jon, and Eternum have no chance of being elim.

Proof: If even one of us had voted differently, Kynedath would have lived and I would have died. Assuming 4 elims, the elims would have reached parity and won.

Assumption 2: Either BR or Monster are elim.

Proof: Someone had to have put in the kill N1. Most of us are cleared, Eternum can't be elim due to assumption 1, so that leaves the 2 of them. They aren't both elims because of the tunnelling that has been happening on both sides.

Assumption 3: Either Steel or DoS are elims.

Proof: If assumptions 1 and 2 are true, then there's only 1 elim in 5 players. If Steel and Dos are villagers, the max number of living elims is 2, which is too low. If Steel and DoS are both elims, Steel wouldn't have been tunneling on DoS like he has been. Therefore, one but only one of Steel and DoS is an elim.

Conclusion: Between Assumptions 1-3, we have accounted for 2 elims and only 2 elims in 7 living players. There is almost certainly a third elim on the field, and this logic leaves only Caesura to be it.

BR just told me she has a lead, but I'm seriously contemplating going after Caesura and leaving BR/Monster alone for now. Caesura also claimed to me in PM to have missed an action one cycle, when she told me she was scanning somebody, so that's another piece of evidence against her in addition to the ones I've already shared.

[Elenion]

3 hours ago, MonsterMetroid said:

Ok I'm finally back sorry I had to write an attack for my church and I was stressed out about it. Sorry with life so busy I will actually start playing now. Though man looking at this list makes me tired...

Also now that Orlok is dead I will reveal one more thing. I traded a bribe with orlok in exchange for him confirming that eternum did in fact message him about the scan, this is why orlok had three bribes. Before the traded bribe he would not admit that. Without that information we would be having a three way discussion about who to lynch which is not favorable to the elim hiding among us (unless eternum is a second elim, but I don't think that's the case).

I'm guessing the third bribe must have come from BR in exchange for not shooting her after supposedly suggesting that Orlok shoot her in the first place.

@ElenionI am sorry for assuming you were an elim I thought that someone was manipulating us to target the 6 which (if we assume their is only 1) had worse odds than someone outside the group. Then after we discuss that fact somehow budgie, who was in the group, gets lynched despite the math I shared. If you still think I'm suspicious I can understand, I think it is flattering that you think I could trick you in only my second game but I am a villager and I don't know what else I can do to prove it.

I will say this though, with a quick elim dead I think that whoever is quick should go for the guns. I can't imagine there being three quick villagers and if there is another quick elim that will give them pause to go for it. DO NOT claim though!!!! We cant have the elims targeting you like I assume they targeted joe because he said he was going after the map. That way we will stand a better chance and you can actually kill BR even if you do kill me.

Your church asks you to write attacks for them? What do you attack?

About Bribes, I'm investigating them right now.

Doy, forgot about BR's vote. It doesn't tell us much about her alignment, but she did vote.

Your defensive logic looks sound, hence why I'm changing my focus to Caesura.

I do have another point in BR's favor though: she had to have passed her Bribe to Orlok last night, which doesn't fit with what she would have done had she known Orlok was going to die.

[BrightnessRadiant]

Mkay I have a lot of stuff I need to look at and think through but I'll try and make a lengthy analysis post sometime tomorrow.

I still believe Monster has to be an elim because I can't see any way Eternum put in the kill on cycle 1 and I didn't so ya. But I wanna get up some analysis for who I think the other elims are. But it's past 1:30 am and I need sleep so until tomorrow byeeee

[Jondesu]

With some things in the works to help us, I’m going to go ahead and switch my vote from BR to Caesura. I’ll be honest, I’m mostly trusting Len’s analysis here, but that’s because I both feel I can trust him pretty safely, and because his logic has always been sound in other games, even if the odds didn’t play out. Either Monster or BR will be up next cycle, though.

[Eternum]

Len's logic seems pretty sound here, I'll be honest. And I trust him and Jon more than everyone else. So I'll change my vote from BR to Caesura.

[MonsterMetroid]

9 hours ago, Elenion said:

Your church asks you to write attacks for them? What do you attack?

hahahaha  man thats what I get for typing on a phone stupid predictive text.

looking over the assumptions I definitely agree with most of them the only one that I question is this one.

9 hours ago, Elenion said:

Assumption 3: Either Steel or DoS are elims.

Proof: If assumptions 1 and 2 are true, then there's only 1 elim in 5 players. If Steel and Dos are villagers, the max number of living elims is 2, which is too low. If Steel and DoS are both elims, Steel wouldn't have been tunneling on DoS like he has been. Therefore, one but only one of Steel and DoS is an elim.

I need to go back andf read both of their posts because I didn t pay attention to either of them as much as I should have but I feel like DoS was never in danger so it could be that both of them could be elims, or neither if their is only 3 elims. we have to remember we don't know how many elims their are  (though the gut agrees with your assumption of 4 total but it is a dangerous assumption.)

I will also read over @Caesura (great name by the way, from kingkiller chronicles right?) posts I remember just getting the impression that they were a newer player.

The other thing That I worry about is if Caesura is elim then we are great but what would we learn if Caesura is village? Call me paranoid but I just want to make sure we dont make a mistake that could cost us the game.

[Elenion]

Caesura is the formal term for a dramatic pause for emphasis.

If Caesura isn't elim, the game is over. Same with any other mislynch. Right now I think we have 5 villagers and 3 elims, so if we lynch a villager and the elims kill another then it'll be 3/3 and we can't lynch any more elims.

@MonsterMetroid Is there any way I could convince you to go for an item tonight? It doesn't have to be a gun; I just would like to see as many players as possible get items so they have alibis for their action tonight.

That goes for everyone else as well: please, go for an item tonight. If you're concerned that someone else is going for the same item you want to go for, PM me and I'll find out for sure. Most everyone trusts me at this point.

 

Oh, also, since it looks like I'm getting support for my crackpot plan... Monster Caesura. Gotta put my vote where my mouth is.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Elenion

[BrightnessRadiant]

@Sart can I post analysis here if it was first posted in pm? I was already gonna share it here too, but I don't want to break a rule.

[Caesura]

Monster and Elenion, you're both right about the name 

Monster's right that I'm very new to this as well. That's all the defense I can really give at this point - I'm just winging this, eh 

[Sart]

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

@Sart can I post analysis here if it was first posted in pm? I was already gonna share it here too, but I don't want to break a rule.

You can paraphrase, but don't copy and paste. It's a forum-wide rule for a reason.

[MonsterMetroid]

Gosh... I kind of hate this because reading the tone of Caesura's posts it really does feel like they are just a new player not sure of what they are doing. But Elen has revealed some concerning things to me in my PM with him as such I have to vote for Caesura at least until @Caesura defends themselves.

Also @Devotary of Spontaneity and @Steeldancer where are you guys?

[Elenion]

I'll make a vote tally so I can see how things stand right now:

BR (0): Jon1, Eternum1, Len1, Monster1

Monster (1): BR1, Len2

Caesura (4): Jon2, Eternum2, Len3, Monster2

[BrightnessRadiant]

18 hours ago, MonsterMetroid said:

Also now that Orlok is dead I will reveal one more thing. I traded a bribe with orlok in exchange for him confirming that eternum did in fact message him about the scan, this is why orlok had three bribes. Before the traded bribe he would not admit that. Without that information we would be having a three way discussion about who to lynch which is not favorable to the elim hiding among us (unless eternum is a second elim, but I don't think that's the case).

Are you saying you passed Orlok your bribe on cycle 4 when Len questioned Eternum and Orlok about the scan? Because in my pm with Orlok on cycle 4 he claimed to already have 2 bribes and you and Steel were the only ones with bribes before that cycle. I put in an order to take one on cycle 3 so Orlok couldn't have had my bribe until the cycle he died. Which means you have him your bribe the cycle before you're claiming and you're only revealing that after Orlok is dead and can't refute your claim. I also had a pm from Steel at the beginning of cycle 4 telling me not to give Orlok a bribe because he'd had his stolen by Orlok and had been talking to "a few" other people in PMs who had given him theirs already too. (I'm assuming he meant you and because you and Steel were the only players to have taken bribes already.) 

So, I'm seeing Steel freak out about Orlok getting too many bribes on the cycle before Orlok is killed by elims and then you say you passed Orlok your bribe on cycle 4 which isn't possible since both Orlok and Steel have stories that say you passed it on cycle 3 not 4. (The cycle that Len confronted Eternum and Orlok) 

If I'm looking at this correctly than your story doesn't line up.

I also think Steel is your teammate and he's been avoiding the 6 players who didn't take items since day 1. He's been constantly posting paranoia of Orlok and Devotary instead. He voted on Len right after he went after Kynedath and hasn't added much to discussion himself other than that even tho he claims he's been keeping notes on things.

I'm guessing the elim team is Kynedath, Monster, Steel, and Caesura and if you look back through the times that people have taken items and said actions then I get this:

Cycle 1: 

1. Kynedath (takes chalk)

2. Steel (takes crab)

3. Caesura (takes crab)

4. Monster (no action or possibly elim kill)

Cycle 2:

1. Kynedath (takes acid)

2. Steel (takes bribe)

3. Caesura (takes no action and Len told me they said they were going to use their crab to scan so possibly put in elim kill)

4. Monster (takes bribe)

Cycle 3:

1. Kynedath (unknown action but died the next cycle and still had acid and chalk so possibly put in the elim kill)

2. Steel (scanned Orlok and got his bribe stolen)

3. Caesura (no accounted for action iirc)

4. Monster (passes bribe to Orlok)

Cycle 4: 

1. Kynedath (unknown action and now dead)

2. Steel (unknown action)

3. Caesura (unknown action)

4. Monster (unknown action)

Mkay so I hope I got this all right because the actions from one cycle aren't revealed until the next cycle so I'm trying to get the numbers right for when they actually took place.

Len's suspicion of Caesura because they didn't use their scan is one reason I suspect them and also because they tried to help lynch Len last cycle when he said that they'd kinda been working together in pm. He didn't give much reasoning for his vote iirc. 

So, I'd still rather lynch monster today to end that debate, but only I know I'm innocent so I can't expect everyone else to know that Monster is an elim, but the fact that he couldn't have passed his bribe when he claims is clearly not something I made up.

Edit: right, meant to do this Caesura ...I'll be all too happy to move back to Monster tho if anyone wants to.

Edited February 12, 2018 by BrightnessRadiant

[MonsterMetroid]

1 minute ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Are you saying you passed Orlok your bribe on cycle 4 when Len questioned Eternum and Orlok about the scan? Because in my pm with Orlok on cycle 4 he claimed to already have 2 bribes and you and Steel were the only ones with bribes before that cycle. I put in an order to take one on cycle 3 so Orlok couldn't have had my bribe until the cycle he died. Which means you have him your bribe the cycle before you're claiming and you're only revealing that after Orlok is dead and can't refute your claim. I also had a pm from Steel at the beginning of cycle 4 telling me not to give Orlok a bribe because he'd had his stolen by Orlok and had been talking to "a few" other people in PMs who had given him theirs already too. (I'm assuming he meant you and because you and Steel were the only players to have taken bribes already.) 

no I'm saying that this post here

Was a direct result from my bribe and would not have happened unless I traded a bribe with orlok I did trade with orlok cycle 3

[Elenion]

@BrightnessRadiant Caesura's C3 action was scanning Orlok. She saw him do the Steel steal.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I agree with Len here. Caesura. I'm not a fan of assuming that there are three elims left, but it does seem reasonable to suppose that there are at least two remaining, and that only one of them is BR or Monster. That means that at least one of Caesura, Steeldancer, and me is evil. As the counter-lynch on C1 to save Steeldancer came mostly from confirmed non-elims and his vote on me did not seem to be coordinated, I trust him more than Caesura.

@BrightnessRadiant Caesura took a bribe on C4.

[BrightnessRadiant]

@MonsterMetroid mkay, that's not cool tho...couldn't you just be lying please? I want to be right 

Honestly I'm once again feeling suspicious of Eternum but no it had to be you who put in the kill because Eternum's action was accounted for right? I didn't do it but darn I thought I'd finally caught you lying xD

@Elenion or she said she did? If they were both elims, she could've just told you what Steel told her in the doc. That's an easy lie.

@Devotary of Spontaneity huh I did miss that part thanks

[Caesura]

I feel a bit like I'm being thrown under the bus here for being new and making a couple mistakes. Do any of you have anything solid against me?

Regarding my D2 action: I didn't claim I was going to use my crab and then not do it; Len suggested I should scan someone and I agreed it was a good idea. If you read back, I put in a vote quite early D2 because I knew I probably wouldn't be on for rollover. I rushed a post before I went to bed because I had an early start at work. I can't keep up with stuff while I'm at work because I'm generally up to my elbows in dishwater 

So, yeah, I forgot to scan someone D2. It was an honest mistake.

[BrightnessRadiant]

@Caesura aww I'm sorry you feel that way, but no one is trying to make this personal. I've been defending myself since cycle 1 because of an honest mistake. Honestly I'd still rather lynch Monster xD

Sadly, this game hasn't been as much about what players have done that's suspicious, but what they haven't. So time constraints have really been an issue for everyone I think.

[Elenion]

Just now, Caesura said:

Do any of you have anything solid against me?

1. The elim kill went through C2, but Kynedath, Steel, BR, and Monster couldn't have done it. Since me, Jon, and Eternum are village, that leaves only you.

2. You voted along with Kynedath last cycle, nearly causing an elim win. While a villager could have done that, an elim certainly would have.

3. My "3 assumptions" logic on the previous page shows how we can account for only 2 of the 3 elims in the other 7 players.

That's the really solid stuff.

[Caesura]

@BrightnessRadiant for sure. I didn't realise how much time I'd end up sinking into this, or how much of my supposed "time off" I'd end up being flat out with rl stuff. Otherwise I would have read into this a bit more - I started making some notes a couple times throughout the game, but never ended up finishing them.

Edit: looks like there's not much I can say that'll convince you at this point. You have analysis and conjecture to implicate me and to assume Jon and Eternum are village. I don't really think that constitutes "solid" evidence, but I guess that's the way you gotta play this game.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Caesura

[Sart]

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Edit: right, meant to do this Caesura ...I'll be all too happy to move back to Monster tho if anyone wants to.

Just a reminder. Don't put votes into edits. It makes it much easier for me to miss them when I'm doing my final tally.

[Caesura]

Voting on Eternum.

[MonsterMetroid]

Eternum

[Steeldancer]

I'm feeling like its time to shake things up. Eternum. Long live Chalk.