Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Amethyst Scorpion]

@Ivory Dragonfly, I did note that I was simply placing my vote on what I thought was the best current reasoning I could agree with, not that I thought it was super solid or guaranteed. I don’t see how that should be suspicious, but I’d rather vote with less than perfect reasons than abstain until I think I know for sure. We’ll simply never know for sure in almost any game.

@Azure Mouse, that’s a fair assessment. I’m glad to not be suspected (at least no more than others), but I do want to note that I’m not committing to posting a lot of thoughts about other players. I’ll do it as thoughts come to me if they do, but I’m not trying to analyze and track everything. Doesn’t really work out for me anyways.

[Pearl Chameleon]

So I was looking over day 3 to try and get a read on some players. A few stood out to me.

Sunburst Toucan: They haven't been committing to strong reads on anyone throughout the game. They've questioned a few players. But I haven't noticed them... devoted? That's a stronger word then what I'm looking for but you get the idea. I don't know what to make of it. I have a slight elim read for now. 

Sage Kangaroo: They also seemed somewhat noncommittal before, but their post this cycle is giving me village vibes. I look forward to their analysis. I'll withhold my opinion until then.

Quartz Zebra: Strong village. Their posts are helpful and seem genuine. They put in a good deal of effort to get everyone to vote on D3. They also heavily questioned Beagle's PM's, and my thought is that if an elim would do such a thing, then the elims would want to keep Beagle alive to keep us distracted and caught up in discussing a villager.

Ivory Dragonfly: Village read, but does this even have to be said at this point?

Mauve Crocodile: This post of theirs:

Quote

“I am going to agree with Gecko for why they voted on Flamingo. I agree that we should still be keeping an eye on Beagle for the whole vote thing (sorry that I keep bringing it up, just sudden band wagons are suspicious), and how closely Flamingo and Beagle have been working together should soft clear Beagle, and if Flamingo is an Elim than we can take a look at Beagle. I think that we still have a bit of room to try and find information, and the chance of finding two Elims in one vote seems like it would be useful.

Struck me as off. The vote itself is bandwagon-y, and it feels... almost like its staged? It doesn't come off as genuine. It's bandwagoning, but the justification is phrased in such a way that it feels like it's meant to fool us into thinking that this isn't a bandwagon.

Salmon Meerkat: I wouldn't have included them here if they weren't one of the main lynch candidates. I don't really understand the bad gut reads that everyone has for them. If it wasn't for all the players who were suspicious of Meerkat, I probably would've read them as village. As far as I can tell, they seem to be trying to drive discussion. But if so many feel suspicious, there must be some reason for it. The question remains is what about Meerkat sets off alarm bells. They don't set off alarms for me, so I can't say. I hate bringing up a player to say that I have a neutral read on them, but given that they've spawned so much discussion I wanted to add my two cents.

Not much to say about Albatross or Ostrich and I've already spent a lot of time on SE today, so I'm not going to go back to analyze their posts right now. Still have mild bad gut feeling on Albatross, still need to actually look into it. My guess is that it's nothing, because I don't trust my gut that much when it comes to SE. Chartreuse Penguin made an interesting case against Albatross, but I want to see more from them. I can see why people find Ostrich suspicious, but I don't think it warrants a lynch just yet. Overall, both seem mildly suspicious, but nothing they've done has jumped out all that much.

Out of all the lynch candidates, I think Mauve Crocodile is the best choice.

 

 

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I hope Chameleon'll share some more of his thoughts with us, because right now he just seems rather chameleon-y. This could be because a lack of time, of course.

@Sunburst Toucan It is.  I wish I had more time to invest in this game.

Also for future reference, I'm a she.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

45 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

In regards to how the lynch is shaping up, we need a lot more people contributing and voting. I understand it’s not the weekend, but we still need solid discussion so we can lynch an Elim. Looking at the lynch candidates, I’m really tempted to jump on the Meerkat lynch. Something holds me back though. I’m not entirely comfortable lynching someone based on mostly gut read, and though their behavior feels off, I’ll hold back unless I think there’s no better option.

Agreed, we need more discussion. @Turquoise Gorilla Why’d you have to kill Beagle!? Even if he had turned out to be an Eliminator, at least he was encouraging people to contribute! 

Anyway, maybe this will help stir up some discussion. Magenta Albatross Salmon Meerkat

nobody seems to want to follow me in lynching Albatross so I might as well go with one of the others I suspect and actually have a chance of lynching. 

[Mint Heron]

The rest brought calm to Kharsis’s mind, and with it, clarity. He knew what he had to do. The old familiar pull tugged at his feet again and he abandoned himself to it, knowing where it would take him.

-

The door was new, lovingly carved with intricate designs that looked like vines. It looked so radically different from what he’d expected that for a moment Kharsis thought that he had come to the wrong house -- but no, it was clearly the house used to live in, now Elion’s house. Kharsis thought back to the old door, worn over the years, battered almost into oblivion. The last time he’d seen it, the hinges had squeaked horribly whenever the door was opened. Now they looked shiny and well oiled. Strange, he thought. I escaped this place, but Elion reclaimed it.
You could always come back
Kharsis knocked on the door hesitantly. 
The boundaries between life and death are particularly permeable here
It opened and Elion’s face peeked out. His brother’s eyes widened. “Kharsis,” he said. It sounded strange coming off his tongue, as if Elion hadn’t said it in a long time. Or perhaps it was just the first time in a while he had said it without cursing, or spitting, or anger in it.

“Elion.” Kharsis said. “I’m sorry.” Then, as if those words had been a dam that had now been breached, the rest of his words came flooding out, one over the other. “I shouldn’t have left you then, it was a real crem thing to do. I knew you and Mum needed the support, especially you, you were just a kid at the time.”

Elion’s eyes held a guarded air that almost was enough to cover up old scars. “Why did you leave?” he asked.

The flow died off at the source. “I, uh,” Kharsis began. A hundred answers rose to his tongue, each of them containing some of the truths, none of them containing all of it. How could he possibly explain everything that had run through his head during those years, building to his final escape from Rennan? He hesitated. “I, I couldn’t stay anymore. Dad was gone, and, you know what Mum was like, with her storming gambling, losing every single sphere we had and more --” He stopped and took a breath. The old claustrophobia fell on his shoulders again, the fear at the pit of his stomach that had clung sickly to him and made him start at every shadow. Memories sprung at him, unbidden: the baker unceremoniously hauling him off from his first potential meal in days just as he’d surreptitiously dipped a hand into a basket, sweating under the blistering sun knowing that whatever spheres he earned today in the fields would be spent by tomorrow night, crying with hunched shoulders over the grave they hadn’t been able to afford a marker for, Mum ransacking the house in the dead of night looking for where he’d hid his spheres.

“I couldn’t bear to stay,” Kharsis finally admitted, “and -- you were too young to come with me.” The decision had been hard to face, but in the end he’d been pragmatic. At six years old Elion was in no condition to wander around Roshar. Could Elion ever forgive him for that?

Elion punched Kharsis in the face, hard. “That’s for leaving without telling me.”

“Ow!” Kharsis held his nose ruefully; it hurt like Braize. Out of all the ways he’d feared this would go, a punch in the face was hardly the worst thing that could have happened. “I guess I deserved that.”

Elion’s mouth twisted. “No, you didn’t.” Opposing emotions warred across his face, giving his face the odd expression he’d worn in the tavern. He’s been anticipating this for so long, Kharsis thought. Things probably aren’t going the way he thought they would either.

Something warm dripped onto Kharsis’s hand. He looked down and saw a burst of vivid crimson staining his palm.

“You’re bleeding,” Elion said, with a startled air. “Hold on, I’ll get you a handkerchief.” He turned back towards his house, stopped, and then looked back at Kharsis. “Why don’t you come in with me, it’ll be quicker that way.”

Kharsis followed, a hand pinching his nose shut. Was this really happening? The air held an unreal, dreamlike quality to it, a contrast to the stinging pain in his nose. Tears gathered in his eyes and he blinked them back, holding back a curse.
No, thank you
For the first time in twenty-six years he finally felt free.
I actually like it here

-

Penguin's recent posts sound stiff and unnatural, particularly the post that is (currently) above mine. His reaction sounds contrived and less villagery for it. However, he does bring up a good point about the Dustbringer kills. Obviously we had at least one Dustbringer up until he died this Night. I know I said that AG distributions are always troll, but there might be something worth getting from analysing what happened this night. I laid out my assumptions to help show my thought process.

 

[ASSUMPTION 1]: Distribution this game is balanced.

[COROLLARY 1a]: To balance out a Sympathiser Dustbringer, the village would have a lot of Windrunners and Elsecallers.

[COROLLARY 1b]: Since we haven't seen any Windrunners or Elsecallers, the Sympathisers cannot have a Dustbringer. Not certain, but I would hold it to be true unless a lot of protects and extra lives started popping up.

[COROLLARY 1c]: Three Dustbringers is not balanced at all.

 

[ASSUMPTION 2]: There are no secret roles or mechanics. The game works exactly as specified in the rules and clarifications. (I know, I know, but it had to be said.  )

 

[ASSUMPTION 3]: A single Dustbringer made the kills of Night One and Two. They killed again on Night Three, and their victim was either Jai (Beagle) or Gorilla.

[COROLLARY 3a]: Gorilla may have been our fire-happy Dustbringer. If so, he did not target himself.

 

There are several ways I could see last Night working out.

1. The Sympathisers killed Gecko. Gorilla killed Jai to sort out suspicions about the Elyle (Swan) lynch. A village Worldhopper got a Dustbringer power and killed Gorilla. (?) - Seems somewhat unlikely, as Gorilla wasn't under a lot of suspicion and wasn't the most non-commital of low-activity posters.

2. The Sympathisers killed Gecko. Gorilla killed Jai to sort out suspicions about the Elyle (Swan) lynch. A Sympathiser Worldhopper got a Dustbringer power and killed Gorilla. Gorilla doesn't seem too out of line with the Sympathiser kills we've seen so far. It's possible that the Sympathisers could have a Worldhopper, as it's been done in an AG before, but as it's been done before it seems less likely.

3. The Sympathisers killed Gecko. Gorilla didn't kill anybody. A village Dustbringer killed someone, and a village Worldhopper with Dustbringer powers killed the other. Again, it seems a little unlikely for the same reasons as 1.

4. The Sympathisers killed Gecko. Gorilla didn't kill anybody. A village Dustbringer killed someone, likely Jai, and a Sympathiser Worldhopper killed Gorilla. Less likely, as one Dustbringer can decimate the evil team by themselves if they are a good player/lucky. If this is what happened the Sympathiser team likely has more protection to make up for it.

 

I know you'd all prefer analysis of players, but I still have a lot of coursework and TBH this is a lot easier for my poor, tired brain.  Don't expect much tomorrow, as I'll be busy for the entire day >>

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Dang, with Beagle gone discussion has kind of stagnated. Well, given that this my last post before the cycle ends, I might as well make the most of it. 

First of all, it is of tantamount importance that the whole village votes. Not voting just hands the lynch to the Elims and vote manipulators, something we want to avoid. I understand that no one is looking uber-suspicious, but a good Elim doesn’t. So we need discussion and voting to bring them out of the shadows. 

Given that the lynch on Fuchsia Ostrich isn’t going anywhere, my vote will reluctantly move to Salmon Meerkat. I still have a bad gut read on him, and since so much of the village does, he might actually be suspicious. So, I’ll do my little analysis of him early: 

Salmon Meerkat: Nothing about them explicitly screams “Elim!” However, the tone of their posts feels very off to me for a reason I can’t really put my finger on. In addition, their vote on Swan D1 to drive lynch discussion, while it may have had honest intentions, looks really weird due to their bizarre explanation that they were just making up evidence mostly to have another lynch candidate that they thought had a good chance of being innocent. Now that Swan has flipped village, it looks even fishier. Poor reasoning on my part, I understand, but he’s a much better lynch than Crocodile or Albatross, and Ostrich isn’t getting lynched at this point. Also, since I won’t be on until the cycle’s over, I want my vote on someone that actually might get lynched. 

[Sunburst Toucan]

Sage Kangaroo

Spoiler

So, Kangaroo. He hasn't talked as much as some others, like Jai, but just about all of his posts contain actual content, which is nice. I agree with a lot of the things he's said, but there's a couple of things that stood out to me as well.

To start with, there's him removing his vote from gecko. He made it clear in alter posts that he was still suspecting Gecko, and his claimed reason for removing the vote was that that lynch seemed to not be going anywhere. I think it is strange that he didn't just keep his vote on gecko if he suspected him, at least until he found someone else to vote on.

Then there's his vote retraction from beagle after someone refutes his 'Beagle is still alive' argument. I can see the reasons for him taking his vote away, but he also once again mentions that the fact that most people seem to think beagle is innocent played a role in his decision He also doesn't place a new vote in that post.

From those two incidents, I can conclude that ti seems Kangaroo doesn't like keeping his votes on people that won't get lynched, even if he does suspect them. Since we now know that both Gecko and beagle where innocent, I even think this is somewhat suspicious, because it is as if he doesn't want to be seen voting against a villager if there aren't others doing the same.

Overall, Kangaroo hasn't been hiding behind lots of hot air and fluff, and says what he (wants us to think) he thinks without hiding it. That's not necessarily a villager quality though, and those two vote retractions don't sit well with me, making me suspicious of him.

Vanna turned the page in her note book after finishing her notes on Kangaroo. 'Meerkat. There was something about him that made me almost skip forwards to hi a couple of days ago.' Vanna thought back to the first days of the disaster. 'Right, he tried to swing the lynch to Elyle (Swan) because he didn't like the Gecko lynch, but didn't provide all that much evidence for voting on him, and even admitted that he didn't believe some of the things he presented. Well, let's see if there's anything else to be said about him.'

Salmon Meerkat

Spoiler

So, I've talk and written about Meerkat before, so I'll keep the notes on his actions during the first day relatively brief. There's one thing I've only just noticed about his vote against Swan, and that is that he seemed to debunk his own reasons form voting even more than I thought. His main reason for accusing Swan is that Swan voted on Dragonfly without presenting reasons. In the same post, Meerkat also points out that Swan puts in-game information in RP.  However, Swan actually explained that she voted on Dragonfly for his votes against inactives in the same line as she amde the actual vote, though it was made in RP. Since Meerkat noticed that she puts important information in RP, I find it odd that he missed this.

During the second day he said the following in defense of his actions (emphasis mine).

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As for your concern regarding my vote on Swan D1, you seem to have overlooked much of my explanation when I put forward the vote. We did not know anything for sure D1. As you can clearly see, looking back, that my intent in voting on Swan (generating discussion and hopefully providing new lynch candidates) was fulfilled. Do you mean to say that I was attempting to shift the lynch from Gecko to Swan? If you look back again, I was not the only player who expressed feelings that the Gecko lynch was not particularly helpful, since Gecko was purposefully cryptic and would not provide much information if it was lynched. I selected Swan as an option because she was a more active player, and her voting patterns were slightly suspicious. I left the rest of the lynch to the rest of the village, whether they agreed or not.

This last line feels like he's trying to wash his hands of any wrong-doing by pointing out that the village plays a role in every lynch. 

His reasons for going after Swan also seem to be shifting. recently he said that he didn't have anything specific against Swan, but his vote on her contained some very specific reasons to be suspicious, so I'm really not sure what he's trying to say here.

However, Meerkat has always been incredibly brazen about his votes on Swan, and has always acted like anyone seeing something odd in it it just misreading or misunderstanding him. That is until Swan was actually proven village, where he suddenly became apologetic for smearing her image.

The brazennes actually made me less suspicious of him, as surely a murderer wouldn't try to attract attention to himself that way, but as soon as Swan was proven innocent he turned over  a new leaf, which does make me suspicious again. Overall, I think that there's a decent chance Salmon is a murderer.

Sapphire Elephant

Spoiler

Sapphire was part of the Oxblood group. This is probably irrelevant, but it might be good to keep in mind anyway.

Sapphire didn't say too much in the first part of the game, and has claimed to be overwhelmed by the sheer number of possible suspects. I've been in hat position as well, so I can sympathize with that. He also mentioned that he'd start following a small group of players more closely int he hope that that would make things more manageable.

However, I have seen relatively little in the way of Analysis from him. He's made a number of statements about who he trusts and suspects, but he never actually explained why. In particular, there was him expressing a lot of trust in Squawk, and I'm wondering whether that was just because Jai (beagle) trusted Squawk, or whether eh has some other reasons of his own.

So, I've got no reasons to distrust Elephant at this point, but he also hasn't given me any reasons to trust him, nor anything that really gives me insight in what he's doing right now, which makes me slightly suspicious.

Violet Axolotl

Spoiler

I've got almost nothing on Axolotl. It hasn't voted after D1, but he sounded innocent to me during D1, for some reason I can't figure out. It hasn't really said anything substantiated since then, but it has said a couple of things that feel off, such as. The, 'you can keep an eye on me, but it won't help you' line feels almost like it's meant as a challenge, rather than a claim of innocence.

However, Axolotl has mostly just said little of substance. His table of votes was nice, but without a firm conclusion there isn't much I can conclude about axolotl from the table.

So yeah, I've got no real idea about Axolotl's innocence, but that's somewhat suspicious on it's own.

Vanna finished her notes, and closed the notebook with a grin on her face. She was finally done! She put the notebook away and got her sketchbook out instead. Now she could finally get back to her art, rather than doing boring detective work.

She was about halfway through drawing the inn's scorched front when she realized she was forgetting something. She actually managed to finish the drawing before she realized what it was she was missing.

'Oh, right. I'm supposed to do something with those notes.' Vanna stood up, after carefully tucking her sketchbook away. "So, I'm mostly done with my notes. I've also looked over Ostrich again today. I don't think much can be said about Ostrich given her lack of input the last couple of days, though I suspect he'll get a change of heart soon. Not that I'd know anything about that..."

"Ahem, moving on. I agree that Meerkat is rather suspicious, and probably the best suspect we've got. However, there's a couple of other things I'd like to know. First, @Sapphire Elephant, can you tell me why you are certain that Squawk (flamingo) is innocent? Was it just because Jai (beagle) trusted Squawk, or do you have reasons of your own that you can share? Secondly, @Sage Kangaroo, why is the opinion and approval of the villagers so important to you? You seem to be unwilling to vote on someone unless others agree, and seem to prefer not having your vote heard at all over voting on someone you suspect that others don't. I might have some more questions later, but I'll have to go and re-read my notes first to see if anyone else stands out."

[Amethyst Scorpion]

@Pearl Chameleon‘s post reminded me of the post by @Mauve Crocodile, which I agree, felt contrived and planned when I saw it. I just wasn’t in a place where I could write a post at the time, and then forgot. I’ll throw my vote on Crocodile this round, again, not because I have any certainty, but that post sticks out to me more than anything else I’ve seen this cycle.

[Mauve Crocodile]

12 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Mauve Crocodile: This post of theirs:

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“I am going to agree with Gecko for why they voted on Flamingo. I agree that we should still be keeping an eye on Beagle for the whole vote thing (sorry that I keep bringing it up, just sudden band wagons are suspicious), and how closely Flamingo and Beagle have been working together should soft clear Beagle, and if Flamingo is an Elim than we can take a look at Beagle. I think that we still have a bit of room to try and find information, and the chance of finding two Elims in one vote seems like it would be useful.

Struck me as off. The vote itself is bandwagon-y, and it feels... almost like its staged? It doesn't come off as genuine. It's bandwagoning, but the justification is phrased in such a way that it feels like it's meant to fool us into thinking that this isn't a bandwagon.

 

1 hour ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

 

@Pearl Chameleon‘s post reminded me of the post by @Mauve Crocodile, which I agree, felt contrived and planned when I saw it. I just wasn’t in a place where I could write a post at the time, and then forgot. I’ll throw my vote on Crocodile this round, again, not because I have any certainty, but that post sticks out to me more than anything else I’ve seen this cycle

 

I've already kind of explained this, but I'll try again.

I try to explain my reasoning for joining in on a bandwagon, because it is not useful for the village if I just say "I'm voting on 'x'"

And yes, it was awkward, but I still think that it was better to attempt to explain myself, albeit in an awkward manor, rather than just say nothing. 

Sorry for sounding weird or awkward, I just really have a pet peeve with people voting and just agreeing with others, without actually saying why. Sorry.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

8 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

Penguin's recent posts sound stiff and unnatural, particularly the post that is (currently) above mine. His reaction sounds contrived and less villagery for it.

Ha! It’s funny that you should say that, because when I typed out that post that’s exactly how I felt about it. But I didn’t have a lot of time and I had already explained my suspicions for meerkat (As much as possible, anyway, when the primary reason is a strong gut feeling), so I just left the post as is. *shrug* I’m not sure what else you expect me to say about it. 

[Sapphire Elephant]

@Sunburst Toucan - thanks for the ping. I've been dealing with sick children for almost 2 days now. I haven't done a very good job at being active like I wanted to be. I want to do an in-depth analysis of all of the lynch candidates before the end of the day.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

4 hours ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

 

I've already kind of explained this, but I'll try again.

I try to explain my reasoning for joining in on a bandwagon, because it is not useful for the village if I just say "I'm voting on 'x'"

And yes, it was awkward, but I still think that it was better to attempt to explain myself, albeit in an awkward manor, rather than just say nothing. 

Sorry for sounding weird or awkward, I just really have a pet peeve with people voting and just agreeing with others, without actually saying why. Sorry.

That's fair, but it's actually not the awkwardness that stood out to me (I mean, I'm pretty awkward).  It felt like the type of thing that had been planned in a committee.  It's hard to define precisely, but it feels like a couple ideas put together from suggestions of what would make you sound like a villager, suggested by possible Elim teammates.  It's the best I've got so far, so I'll keep my vote on you for now.  Sorry if I'm wrong!

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Okay so it looks like a meerkat lynch is probably going through and I'm going through their posts as promised.

1. Jokingly posts about pink animals being evil and says that ostrich needs to remove their vote from them and that they are displaying pink behavior so they're evil lol. (A fun post but does help me see that ostrich was voting meerkat at the beginning and not sure if an elim teammate would do that so I'll keep that in mind regarding ostrich/meerkat interactions.)

2. Comments on Ostrich removing their vote and says that they're suspicious of gecko for voting octopus (I think this was back when the joke voting was going around so I won't take it too seriously lol)

3. Makes a serious post about why we should have a day 1 lynch and again mentions gecko needing to explain their vote. Says that they have no information about swan but votes for them and then gives reasons... (what happened to the no information?:P) says that swan voted dragonfly without reasons and doesn't like them voting through rp. Says they don't agree with the lynch on gecko or penguin and wants to switch the lynch to swan. (Possibility for penguin/meerkat team if meerkat flips elim. I wouldn't see an elim starting a new lynch on swan if they were an elim trying to just put a vote somewhere, because they could easily have voted one of the two other candidates. But it could've been a way to distract from penguin lynch.)

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  On 1/14/2018 at 4:55 PM, Oxblood Beagle said:

Um, coral swan is by no means nonsensical. Alvron spent an entire game spouting bobbly-gook that ended up being game related. If you want distracting, try dealing with that. 

I understand that bit. Really, I wanted another point to express to make my argument seem more valid

4. Said this in their next post. (looking for reasons to add to the vote? Looks a little suspicious since they didn't need a reason to lynch an active player like swan on day 1 unless they had a reason for it. I.E. to save penguin maybe) still just theorizing this.

5. They say they didn't like the 3 way tie for the lynch but still have their vote on swan. (I'm becoming more convinced that meerkat is an elim, but I'm not sure if I've just convinced myself so everything looks fishy or if it's true.)

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That is true. Other variables will contribute to the chance of lynching an Elim. However, most discussion analysis becomes more effective over time, as evidence is tested against confirmed alignments. Thus, at D1, most discussion analysis yields are near zero.

6. Responds to swan about their numbers on the lynch. (This post is basic nai info to me)

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  On 1/15/2018 at 5:13 AM, Sunburst Toucan said:

“Wait, so correct me if I’m wrong, but you are saying you accused someone, using arguments that you knew where wrong, but you included them anyway so that hopefully some people would agree with you?” Vanna had to suppress the urge to shout those words.  "And you somehow consider lying to get soemoen lynched because you don't have the arguments to actually make a solid case a normal thing to do?" She took a breath to calm herself, and the added one last thing. “I thought finding the culprit would be difficult, Salmon Meerkat. It seems I was wrong.”

Not that the argument was wrong, rather that it didn't mean anything. It was fluff, a filler, an illusion of size. And I wasn't lying, because I truly did feel like it was a little confusing. 

You miss the true reason why I brought such a forward argument. I feel that someone, should be lynched today. There are 30 of us, quite a lot, and quite difficult to keep track of all at once. I didn't see much reason in lynching Gecko, who wouldn't give us much information, so I wanted to present the village with another candidate. It was up to the village to determine how they felt about that.

7. This explanation bothers me. They get called out by toucan who I feel was in the right and then they don't even mention the fact that penguin was also up for the lynch when they proffered swan as a candidate?

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Underline mine) This sums up the Dingo lynch, and is probably why Beagle and Crocodile added their votes to it. Between Swan and Dingo, I do not have a true preference. As Dragonfly said, the Swan lynch did generate discussion. The Dingo lynch also served the same purpose, (providing a different lynch candidate to Gecko, more active, and generated discussion). Dingo has not been a truly inactive player, but is just active enough to not be classified as inactive, as Dragonfly explained.

Both lynches have achieved the goals I set out earlier. To prevent more vote manip, Swan, Dingo.

8. Why vote someone who is mostly inactive? What analysis would we gain from that? And why switch from them to swan if you thought your reasons valid on day 1? @Salmon Meerkat

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I'm not sure what to say that hasn't been said. Dingo's death was disappointing, and if he had just spoken up, then it would have been avoided. I guess we'll see what happens in the morning.

9. Welllll, they were kinda inactive soooo not as much chance they'd get on to defend themselves. An easy target?

10. Comments on the poem message and the fact that we lost a lightweaver. (NAI)

11. Says that their vote on swan day 1 was to generate discussion and provide new lynch candidates. (Not sure why they needed another candidate tho)

12. Says that flamingo was one of the only active players not to have voted yet in the cycle when they made this post and even gives a vote tally and comments about other players needing to be active. Doesn't vote and all they say about it is they aren't sure about the lynch candidates. (Seems odd to me that they were keeping up with the lynch but had nothing to add to it.)

13. Comments on if swan flips village then they'll feel bad for putting swan on everyone's radar day 1. Points out the lack of reasons given for people voting swan. (Was true that they didn't give reasoning for it, but we've been up and down and inside out about the whole pm vote thing that happened) I feel like meerkat was covering themself here because they knew swan would get lynched and flip village. Then casts suspicion on Beagle by saying if swan *does* flip village then they'll be sis of Beagle. This looks like something elim!meerkat could easily set up and may have taken advantage of this whole swan pm vote thing.

14. Swan flips village the next cycle and meerkat points to beagle.

15. Makes guesses at whether the dustbringer is village or not because of the opal kill. Talks about elims and where they might be found based on activity. (Pretty NAI because I could see this post from either side)

16. Says that they are sus of Beagle but doesn't want to vote them because he was an active player. Says they aren't sure about tuatara or vulture lynch. Doesn't vote. (Could be elim spreading doubt on Beagle without getting directly involved in a villager's lynch)

17. Votes crocodile for joining two separate bandwagon. (While I'm not sure of crocodile's alignment, finding out meerkat's could help.)

18. Their last post was something I already commented on earlier and is why I voted them to begin with.

I will definitely be keeping my vote on meerkat and would like to ask others to do the same. I really think that this lynch would give us our first elim and they've had enough connections and posts for me to get info from their alignment if they flip elim. They have made a lot more posts than I had thought and going through them I get the feeling they have been trying very hard to avoid suspicion and their lack of voting, especially when compared to their insistence that we should have a day 1 lynch seems to contradict themself. 

Also, I noticed that scorpion voted crocodile along with meerkat after 3 votes in a row went towards the meerkat lynch. I can't help but feel this would tie scorpion to meerkat as well if meerkat flips elim.

And finally done

Edit: just realized that penguin was one of the meerkat voters so I'll keep that in mind regarding my meerkat/penguin theory lol.

Edited January 24, 2018 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Mint Heron]

I agree with Rhino and all the others who've said Meerkat is likely evil. When I read Meerkat's post saying that they had deliberately added bogus reasons to their argument to lynch Elyle, it was a big red flag, but as I was still spectating the game then I couldn't do much about it. 

[Salmon Meerkat]

Everyone who's decided to bandwagon against me: please reconsider. Especially those of you whose reasons are purely because of bandwagon.

53 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

I agree with Rhino and all the others who've said Meerkat is likely evil. When I read Meerkat's post saying that they had deliberately added bogus reasons to their argument to lynch Elyle, it was a big red flag, but as I was still spectating the game then I couldn't do much about it. 

Now Heron, if I were an Elim, would I really admit that I was making things up just to convince more people?

@Chartreuse Penguin, you had no other motive than the bandwagon. Please actually put some thought into your decision.

@Plum Rhinoceros, you mentioned you might reconsider later. Is now such a time?

To everyone else who based their evidence on my past voting patterns and evidence: I see clearly the fault of my actions, and why you have gotten so worked up over them. I'll allow the next hour until rollover for everyone to make their decisions, then I will see what needs to be done. The choice is yours.

[Sapphire Elephant]

Mauve Crocodile: (3) - Salmon Meerkat, Pearl Chameleon, Amethyst Scorpion

Salmon Meerkat: (6) - Onyx Flamingo, Plum Rhinoceros, Chartreuse Penguin, Ivory Dragonfly, Sunburst Toucan, Mint Heron

Our lynch candidates are now down to 2, and it looks like Meerkat is the primary target here.

I promised analysis on the two players currently up for the lynch, and I probably ought to throw Onyx Flamingo in there too, since @Sunburst Toucan specifically asked why I trust them.

Mauve Crocodile:

D1 - was voted on for inactivity, came online confused about how to keep track of players. Voted in the Dingo lynch - reasoning given was that Dingo had posted 6 times without saying anything useful. Had technical issues getting the votes working.

That lynch reasoning would normally be awful, but for a D1 lynch it's not out of the realm of reasonability. At least from my perspective. D1 lynches are always tough for me to figure out how to find suspicions without patterns of behavior to go on, and lynching someone for not contributing is a decent place to start. So I'll give Mauve a pass on that for the moment - but if this starts to be a pattern, we might revisit it.

D2 - discusses using an RNG to decide on a few players to follow, to keep the content down to a manageable amount

N2 - actually starts doing some analysis on the Swan lynch - points out Opal Lion's bandwagoning. Also strongly defends the practice of talking during night turns, instead of just waiting for the next day to come.

D3 - comments on PMs being down, asks which kill was Elim and which kill was Dustbringer; points Weasel towards a post by Beagle. Votes Flamingo because they are suspicious of beagle and think that flamingo will give info about beagle while not removing a valuable player if beagle turns out innocent.

N3 - apologizes for listing reasoning in a way that gorilla found suspicious - zebra thinks that mauve's vote was rioted by an Elim. Say they are going to post a long analysis post by the end of the night or the early morning.

I have to go now, so I'll get back to listing what I think about this in a bit.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

@Salmon Meerkat sorry, but I really think we need to go through with this lynch. You're the best suspicion I have rn.

 

[Quartz Zebra]

I'm really sorry for disappearing, everyone - real life got in the way. I did actually try and perform analysis for how suspicious 3 different players were (for the record, that's Weasel, Kangaroo, and Axolotl), and for each one of them, I started analysing their posts only to change my mind the more I read about the likelyhood (or lack thereof) of them being Elim - there just wasn't enough there for me to really be suspicious of them. I had hoped the death of Beagle or Flamingo would be enlightening, but it unfortunately wasn't - sorry Beagle, and sorry thread, for distracting everyone for part of a Cycle.

To be honest, while I'm not overly suspicious of Meerkat, I have a slight to moderate trust read on Crocodile, and don't really see them as being an Eliminator (though it's tough to say - they haven't really posted the most.) So, I'm going to vote for Salmon Meerkat, mainly because I don't think there's time to start my own analysis for a lynch, and I'm not really sure anymore who I'd advocate for right now if I did.

I'm probably going to try and make a very quick "Why you should vote for Crocodile/Meerkat" thing like I did last round (expect that in the next half an hour or so), because the voter turnout is pathetic right now. (Admittedly, that didn't seem to help much last time, but... second time lucky?) This is really worrying - the solution for having little to no information at this point in the game is to talk more, not less - at this point, we've just made it easier for the Eliminators to swing the lynch.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

36 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

@Chartreuse Penguin, you had no other motive than the bandwagon. Please actually put some thought into your decision

My motive is my gut read. Like I said, I’ve never had an Eliminator gut read on someone this strongly before, and it’s weird that I’m not the only one. Now I might be completely wrong, but I’d rather follow through with the lynch on you than to switch my vote (back) to someone that nobody else is going to vote for an have it not mean anything, and I don’t have any particular suspicion of Crocodile. 

Sorry. *shrug*

[Onyx Flamingo]

4 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said:

To be honest, while I'm not overly suspicious of Meerkat, I have a slight to moderate trust read on Crocodile, and don't really see them as being an Eliminator (though it's tough to say - they haven't really posted the most.) So, I'm going to vote for Salmon Meerkat, mainly because I don't think there's time to start my own analysis for a lynch, and I'm not really sure anymore who I'd advocate for right now if I did.

I'm probably going to try and make a very quick "Why you should vote for Crocodile/Meerkat" thing like I did last round (expect that in the next half an hour or so), because the voter turnout is pathetic right now. (Admittedly, that didn't seem to help much last time, but... second time lucky?) This is really worrying - the solution for having little to no information at this point in the game is to talk more, not less - at this point, we've just made it easier for the Eliminators to swing the lynch.

Have to say I agree with Zebra that this voter turnout is horrendous right now with a little over an hour to go. If we modify elephants vote count with zebras vote it should be this

Mauve Crocodile: (3) - Salmon Meerkat, Pearl Chameleon, Amethyst Scorpion

Salmon Meerkat: (7) - Onyx Flamingo, Plum Rhinoceros, Chartreuse Penguin, Ivory Dragonfly, Sunburst Toucan, Mint Heron, Quartz Zebra

that means we only have 50% participation which mean sunless it is the largest elim team Ever that their are villagers who have not voted or shared their opinions.

So @Azure Mouse, @Amber Vulture, @Emerald Falcon, @Fuchsia Ostrich(who never showed up even when Dragonfly voted for them and seems to be keeping really low right now  ), @Indigo Weasel, @Magenta Albatross, @Mauve Crocodile(I thought he would have voted since he is second place right now?), @Sage Kangaroo, @Sapphire Elephant, and @Violet Axolotl I beg that you please share your ideas and then vote. If you think that meerkat is innocent please share your thoughts I would love to hear from a differing opinion. If you think crocodile is more likely than tell me why. If you really don't care and haven't been following the game... well that kind of sucks for us but at least try to get informed in an hour and vote. 

I voted for meerkat for the reasons I listed, but also because my gut. If people in this thread I would rather hear about it now than tomorrow people saying they really weren't surprised if he is innocent. So please vote now, and don't give me "oh sorry I wasn't on at cycle end otherwise I would have voted" because we have had 48 hours to do this.

If I mistakenly tagged you due to miscalculation please forgive me or if you had some RL stuff I understand too but please, Please, participate this time :'(

 

[Violet Axolotl]

8 hours ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

Violet Axolotl

 

  Reveal hidden contents

I've got almost nothing on Axolotl. It hasn't voted after D1, but he sounded innocent to me during D1, for some reason I can't figure out. It hasn't really said anything substantiated since then, but it has said a couple of things that feel off, such as. The, 'you can keep an eye on me, but it won't help you' line feels almost like it's meant as a challenge, rather than a claim of innocence.

However, Axolotl has mostly just said little of substance. His table of votes was nice, but without a firm conclusion there isn't much I can conclude about axolotl from the table.

So yeah, I've got no real idea about Axolotl's innocence, but that's somewhat suspicious on it's own.

 

It's true, I haven't said much of substance.  I'm trialing a new method for my votes and it's taking some time to hammer out the details.  You won't get any substance from me as that would interfere with my new method.  Sorry. 

Meerkat has been on my mind for the past couple of cycles but so has Octopus but they are dead so I really can't fathom why. 

The Meerkat lynch feels different than the Tuatara one last day cycle so I'm happy to vote for them.  Or crocodile.  Both feel the same so I'm happy with either one.

[Indigo Weasel]

Okay, people, I'm not lurked. I'm just was reallyyy busy. I don't know what else to say... I see people already decided who is most suspicious... so... Meerkat?

[Magenta Albatross]

I've just quickly skimmed the thread and looks like we have an elim up for lynch.

Ideally, I wanted to talk about my suspicions today, namely; Sunburnt Toucan, Scorpion, and Vulture to some extent. But that will have to wait.

Right now, I'd rather as many people get involved in the lynches as possible, as that will give us much more information when Meerkat flips elim than if we don't vote. So Meerkat.

And thanks for the mention Flamingo. 

 

 

 

[Mint Heron]

1 hour ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

 

@Chartreuse Penguin

To everyone else who based their evidence on my past voting patterns and evidence: I see clearly the fault of my actions, and why you have gotten so worked up over them. I'll allow the next hour until rollover for everyone to make their decisions, then I will see what needs to be done. The choice is yours.

I'm on mobile now so I'll keep it short -- this post sounds evil as heck. It's appeasement and downplaying without a real defense. 

[Sapphire Elephant]

Alright - I'm back.

First, my comments on the Meerkat lynch. This is awfully late in the game to be lynching someone just off of "gut feeling," no matter how many players share it. It's D4, everyone! There should be something substantial to justify a vote! This game of bandwagoning on someone because "everyone" thinks that they are guilty is ridiculous!

I don't have strong feelings about Meerkat's innocence, but I do have strong feelings about the justifications everyone is offering about the lynch. If there isn't anything substantial, then maybe we ought to find a better target? I don't have time to go through everything on Meerkat like I am with Mauve (I chose to start with Mauve because Meerkat is going to get lynched at the moment, and having analysis out on the alternate lynch target might be valuable), so there might be actual justifications for the lynch that aren't just bandwagoning on someone else's gut feelings. If there's still time after I'm done with this post, I'll go back and see what I can find.

Back to analyzing Mauve.

D1 they didn't say much (but I'm in the same boat there, I think - so again, something that's not necessarily alignment indicative on its own, but could be part of a larger pattern) other than voting on Dingo. D2 they follow the same pattern - mostly lurking while only contributing a few posts of dubious value. But N2 they really step up to the plate and start posting useful things to the village. The analysis on the Swan lynch was useful - and probably contributed to the Dustbringer kill on Opal (which was useful because it saved us from wasting the next day on an Opal lynch - I'd have likely pushed to lynch Opal the next day otherwise).

D3 they are back to lurking

N3 - they are mostly AWOL, but most of us were, again.

All things considered, they feel like they are trying to be helpful, but their posts are mostly short and not particularly useful. I'm not getting a suspicious vibe off of them at all, but I'm not feeling strongly village about them.

Now to see what everyone else who's posted while I've been writing this said.

 

[Sapphire Elephant]

1 hour ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

To everyone else who based their evidence on my past voting patterns and evidence: I see clearly the fault of my actions, and why you have gotten so worked up over them. I'll allow the next hour until rollover for everyone to make their decisions, then I will see what needs to be done. The choice is yours.

Oh goodness gracious.

So...this is the part where it looks like (based on timestamps) I got ninjaed by a post that would have changed things significantly. This post is certainly highly suspicious. I still don't like the bandwagon and the whole "my gut says...and their gut says...we can't all be wrong, can we?" But this post is scummy. No two ways about it. Meerkat