Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Quartz Zebra]

9 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Also, Quartz, at this point I'm feeling you as village. I'm also not asking you to not consider all the options. But at some point you gotta take a leap of faith as a villager. If we lynch Tuatara and they turn elim, that shows Onyx is more likely village, and im more likely village. We can't afford to spend time eliminating probable villagers if we want to win this game. We've gotta lynch the sketchy ones, and right now Tuatara is looking sketchier and sketchier.

I am tempted by this, but I feel as though Flamingo is also rather sketchy - they may be a probable villager to you, but I don't see that. I honestly don't see enough evidence for Tuatara being an Eliminator that I would feel confident swapping my vote over to them. They're not a particularly insightful villager, by any means, but I think it's a stretch to say that they're any sketchier than quite a few other lurkers/poke-voters that don't bother to explain their thought process. (See my analysis post on Ostrich, for example, at the beginning of this day.) I see their actions today as a villager interested in self-preservation. Maybe I'm wrong. I guess we'll find out in a couple hours.

[Sunburst Toucan]

2 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Guys, i know there are some confused villagers out there. Please trust me that Ivory is village. 

Well, if Jai had wanted to convince me to start voting against his suggestions, this would probably be what he'd need to say.

"Jai, Flamingo ( @Oxblood Beagle, @Onyx Flamingo), this mention of notes is the most recent thing added to this discussion about your group, or gang, or whatever." Vanna worked hard to keep the frustration out of her voice. "I really don't understand why Flamingo would share them with Jai, instead of the thread if he thought he was going to die. If it was role-related, then claiming in the thread could have resulted in people backing off and voting elsewhere. Sharing them with one person also has the added risk of accidentally only giving them to an eliminator. I really can't figure out how this makes sense. So why did flamingo share them with only one person. And if there's no reason, maybe it's time to share those notes with all of us?"

[Azure Mouse]

@Quartz Zebra I did say I intended on voting.

Looks like Tuatara is still in its 2 vote lead. I think I'll put my vote on Beagle though. They've sorta made me feel uneasy about them the whole game so far. I keep flip-floping on if it's a town or mafia lean on them. The PM thing does push me more into the lean maf side I think...

[Ivory Dragonfly]

I can confirm everything Beagle has been saying about the PM groups as true. It was made of people he thought for sure were villagers that he reached out to get discussion on the lynch. Granted, I missed most of it, but I read back through it, and Beagle’s account of events is completely correct. As for who role-claimed, Beagle and Elephant claimed in the general chat, Flamingo PMed me personally with his claim, and Albatross did not claim (at least to me.) Flamingo told me he had also PMed Beagle with info on his role. 

I don’t see the argument against Flamingo. You’re lynching them, essentially, for information, and not really on hard evidence about their behavior that they might be an elim. If we lynch for info, Tuatara is much better, as they’re acting far more suspiciously and everyone has commented on them in one way or another. I also don’t like how this vote is swinging away from them, and think the Elims may be trying to preserve a teammate indirectly. Anyway, I’m going for a long run because this is stressing me out, as is my schoolwork. I’ll return once the new cycle is up. Hopefully we’ll have killed an Elim by then. Also, a vote count for the remaining players that are undecided would be great, to help them make choices. Good luck and happy lynching! (...or something like that)

 

[Violet Axolotl]

Votes
Tuatara : Dragonfly, Beagle, Vulture, Scorpion, Elephant, Toucan, Vulture (7)
Vulture : Penguin, Albatross (2)
Beagle : Heron, Weasel, Mouse (3)
Flamingo : Gecko, Kangaroo, Tuatara, Zebra, Crocodile (5)

I'm still not feeling the Tuatara lynch but I trust Flamingo more.  I'm not going to vote this round.  (Yes, yes, I know this will make me look suspicious but I don't care.  If I don't feel a lynch, I don't vote.)
 

[Sapphire Elephant]

@Oxblood Beagle - I'm here. Sorry - got busy with church and took a nap after.

I really don't like this bandwagon forming on flamingo. I strongly feel that flamingo is villager. My vote's already on Tuatara, and I'm not inclined to move it. I need to reread the thread - there's a lot I've missed while I was gone. Unfortunately, I have family obligations until late tonight, so I won't be able to be on until either then or tomorrow morning.

But if Tuatara flips Elim, we really ought to look closely at those who voted Flamingo.

[Turquoise Gorilla]

3 hours ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

I am going to agree with Gecko for why they voted on Flamingo. I agree that we should still be keeping an eye on Beagle for the whole vote thing (sorry that I keep bringing it up, just sudden band wagons are suspicious), and how closely Flamingo and Beagle have been working together should soft clear Beagle, and if Flamingo is an Elim than we can take a look at Beagle. I think that we still have a bit of room to try and find information, and the chance of finding two Elims in one vote seems like it would be useful.

This post feels off to me. It feels like they're going over the top to give their reasons for voting on Flamingo, like they expect him to flip village and they want to have plenty of excuses for why they voted on him.

3 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

I sense a vote to save Tuatara, and I'm getting uber suspicious. Very, VERY suspicious. This vote has become close enough that the elims could manipulate it. I am really sure of Flamingos villagerness, and this counterwagon is off to me. 

I would agree with this, except for the fact that Tuatara just keeps doing things that would be so obvious as an elim that I can't really believe he is.

3 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said:

Interesting. When you support a late bandwagon, it's not suspicious at all, but when you don't support it, it's very suspicious. Just saying...

Well, Beagle admitted it was a gamble, which implies he understands he'd get suspicion for it if he was wrong. So I don't agree with this. That, and the fact that he was openly saving Flamingo with his late lynch while this late lynch on Flamingo isn't quite as focused on saving Tuatara, which is what I'd expect from a lynch that the Sympathizers are forcing to save a teammate, since they wouldn't want to draw attention to the fact they're saving their teammate.

2 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Hmm... I had read through some accusations and honestly I don't see Tuatara as elim, also accusations on Vulture looking flimsy as hell I don't see nothing special that can mean that Vulture is elim.

Beagle and Flamingo looks like best targets for lynch for me right now.

Flamingo still voting for people based on really weak suspicions, I know that we don't have any good evidence against someone but cases against people on which Flamingo voted is even weaker than just weak. Problem with Flamingo it that I don't know if he\she is new player or not, if Flamingo new player then I can understand his\her behavior, but if Flamingo lied to me about being new player than, well, I think that Flamingo can be elim. 

Beagle, yes he is very active and encouraging discussion and bla blah blah. And I don't think that there much evidence against him but not lynching him cause he active and we "probably" can get information about Beagle's alignment from Flamingo lynch is foolish. Elims sometimes protecting villagers just to gain trust, why that can't be so in our case, just look, we lynching Flamingo and see that he\she is villager, I'm sure that it will delay Beagle's lynch atleast for couple cycles. Also good players on elims easily can be in center of discussion as someone already pointed, maybe that's putting them in vulnerable position but in same time by that they getting chance to direct village, they gaining trust. 

So... I don't know. I purely don't have any evidence against Beagle just my baseless guesses that he can be one of those active elim player. But I also don't see other players who stand out for me(except Flamingo).

Is Flamingo a new player? I thought that was Dragonfly who said they were new?

@Quartz Zebra, about your earlier mention of me. I did vote on Salmon Meerkat earlier, but I did so with false accusations(not on purpose, just thought he'd posted something that someone else posted), so I felt I should remove my vote until I put a solid case against him.

Forgot to quote this, so:

"Gorilla- Is a pinch hitter. Says they would rather lynch Vulture than Tautara... But then doesn't make any move to vote in that way. I get that you don't really like either candidate that well, but is there a reason you aren't going to use your vote to cause the result you said you would prefer? I am kind of wary of this sort of behavior." - Gecko

I normally would have, but like I said, I couldn't seem to gather my thoughts at the time, and neither of them were targets I liked. If I had done anything more at that point, it would have been to build a case for an alternative target, but I couldn't focus well enough to do that.

Another vote tally:

Vulture(2): Penguin, Albatross
Beagle(4): Heron, Weasel, Mouse, Gorilla
Tuatara(7): Dragonfly, Beagle, Vulture, Scorpion, Elephant, Toucan, Flamingo
Flamingo(5): Gecko, Kangaroo, Tuatara, Zebra, Crocodile

Okay, we've only got 1 hour left, so here's my current thoughts. No time to do an alternate lynch on anyone besides these 4 players. Of the four lynches, Vulture's looks the purest(by which I mean the one least likely to have a Sympathizer voting in it), but I don't agree strongly enough with lynching Vulture that I want to join it. The lynch I feel most likely to have a Sympathizer is probably Flamingos, because I don't trust Gecko, Kangaroo, or Crocodile. I do lean village on Zebra and Tuatara, but Tuatara is obviously voting for self preservation. I also feel the Tuatara lynch probably has a Sympathizer in it, as I kind of think the "PM trust" group might have a Sympathizer in it and even if it doesn't, I don't have village reads on Scorpion, Vulture, or Toucan really. The Beagle lynch is unclear, because I don't have a read on Heron or Weasel. Information wise, I think lynching Beagle/Flamingo or Tuatara would be the most helpful, so we can move on from them. The trust group suspects Tuatara, and multiple players have stated suspicion of Beagle/Flamingo and the PM stuff. Only problem with lynching one of Beagle or Flamingo is that I view them as either villager/villager or elim/villager, and right now I'm of the opinion that Beagle is more likely to be an elim than Flamingo and I doubt we can move the lynch over to Beagle this late. I don't see their interactions as elim/elim, because they're collaborating too openly. I'm leaning elim more on Beagle than Flamingo mostly just based on gut honestly.

And now Mouse just voted Beagle. I was considering voting Tuatara, because I could be wrong about them and I didn't think a Beagle lynch was possible, but I guess I'll give it a shot now that Mouse has added their vote. Beagle. Sorry, I know I said I don't like to vote only because of gut, but it's too late to dive into your posts and give analysis.

Now Axolotl ninja'd me while I waver...argh. I'm just not sure about any of these lynches. Whatever, my vote's on Beagle. I think I'm secretly hoping Tuatara is lynched and flips elim though, so I can stop worrying about Beagle.

[Taupe Gecko]

Well, I've skimmed through the two pages that happened since I last posted.

I am pleased with the fact that this lynch had lots of discussion. I am doubly pleased that there have been several legitimate lynch candidates, and a lot of voter participation.

I'm pretty sure at least one of the current candidates is an elim (statistically quite likely unless the eliminator team is abnormally small). It will be interesting to see who was trying to save who in all of this.

Seeing as the cycle's almost up, I'll leave my thoughts at that. Looks like Tuatara is being lynched, and while I believe they are village, I'd rather wait a few minutes and confirm that before I continue my analysis (which would be based on that assumption).

[Cream Tuatara]

Well, RIP me. I might as well move my vote to Beagle. It looks like the Willshapers are my only hope, assuming no one votes after this post.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

AG4/AN1 - Night 3: The Study of Art

Cream Tuatara didn’t even know what a Tuatara was. Just that they were it. Did they need to know more specifics? Not at all, because they were the Tuatara so the description of Tuatara was them. Makes sense, ya know? Or should hopefully do, because otherwise no-one really would know what a Tuatara was. But to get to the point of why you’re reading this, The Cream Tuatara is dead. 

To know why it happened, it would be best to ask one of the people that y’know, actually did the deed itself. If you ask me further about who exactly did it, then I’d tell ya to stop pestering me and look at the helpful tally below. Somedays I think that you people don’t even read the write-up itself. Below is an artistic rendition of how it happened:

---

C.T was strutting their stuff downtown when someone hollered at them, saying

“Yo C.T what you doin?”

“I’m just strutting you know? Always gotta strut when you’re in the mood.”

“Yeah well me and the homies decided that we ain’t about that strut life. We’re more about doing the shuffle.”

“Ah that’s fair enough. Enjoy doing the shuffle then I guess, I ain’t one to judge.”

“Well just in case you change your mind, we’re gonna have to eliminate you, so sorry I guess.”

And before C.T could strut their way away, they were gone.

---

If you don’t think that’s artistic enough, then I am sorry to inform you that I am not doing anything that creative in the future, so the feedback will not affect me that much. If I was though, I would almost certainly get annoyed at that and maybe do something to you in return. So really it’s in your best interest to compliment me on my write-ups no matter the content inside them, though that might make me annoyed at that and then do something to you in return. Guess you gotta take a chance, or don’t do anything at all. I’d probably do nothing at all in this case.

Anyway, it’s the night now so make sure to go to bed and get a good night’s sleep, or you might lynch another villager again. 

---

Cream Tuatara has died! They were a Villager.

Vote Count
Cream Tuatara (7): Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Sunburst Toucan, Mauve Crocodile, Sapphire Elephant
Oxblood Beagle (4): Mint Heron, Turquoise Gorilla, Azure Mouse, Indigo Weasel
Onyx Flamingo (3): Sage Kangaroo, Quartz Zebra, Taupe Gecko
Amber Vulture (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Magenta Albatross

Night Three has begun. It will end in 24 hours time, at 10pm GMT on the 22nd January.

Player List
1. Amethyst Scorpion
2. Azure Mouse
3. Amber Vulture
4. Charcoal Hyena - Cannoc - Villager
5. Chartreuse Penguin
6. Coral Swan - Elyle - Village Lightweaver
7. Cream Tuatara - Villager
8. Emerald Falcon - Aldrick
9. Fuschia Ostrich
10. Indigo Weasel
11. Ivory Dragonfly - Nolan
12. Magenta Albatross
13. Mauve Crocodile
14. Melon Dingo - Quentisan - Village Edgedancer
15. Mint Heron
16. Onyx Flamingo - Squawk
17. Opal Lion - Villager
18. Oxblood Beagle - Jai
19. Pearl Chameleon
20. Plum Rhinoceros
21. Quartz Zebra
22. Saffron Iguana - Emalia - Village Lightweaver
23. Sage Kangaroo
24. Salmon Meerkat
25. Sapphire Elephant
26. Scarlet Octopus - Village Edgedancer 
27. Sunburst Toucan - Vanna
28. Taupe Gecko
29. Turquoise Gorilla
30. Violet Axolotl

[Oxblood Beagle]

What...but... he was village? That's really, really not good. That means 1. We really need to find an eliminator soon. 

2. I screwed up, again. 

3. I'm going to need to redo all my analysis. All of it. Crap.

Also, Orlok, i always read the write up. And give upvotes. 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Better sleep on the decision of who to lynch next. No pun intended. It was totally intended. 

I wasn’t 100% confident in my reasoning, as was probably obvious, but still, I’m at least disappointed to hit another villager. It’s certainly not unusual, but we do need better luck soon.

Hopefully the Dustbringer has more sense than the rest of us. Assuming they’re village.

[Oxblood Beagle]

Well, i have a few things to say. 

First, I'll admit how weird the end of day 2 looks without the context of the discussion we had in PMs. 

Second, my crackpot theory that the lizards are all elims is disproven. Not like i ever thought this would be that easy. 

Third, for what it's worth, i am most suspicious of Gecko, Weasel, Ostrich, and Meerkat. And to a lesser extent, Crocodile. 

I'm tempted to want to have the Dustbringer kill me, but at the same time, i don't really trust the judgement of other villagers (even though my judgement has not exactly been much better so far, in regards to finding eliminators). 

So, Dustbringer, please kill wisely. 

[Taupe Gecko]

Alright, Tuatara was innocent. Not really surprised but I am glad for it to be confirmed.

I think we need to consider two possibilities.

1. We have an abnormally small elim team. It is balanced out with some good powers (worst-case scenario a dustbringer), and depending on if Orlok uses dice or not, possibly a collection of skilled players.

2. The eliminators have been able to control the lynch without too much effort. Either because all of the current suspicions were off the mark, or because they are playing on the offensive, and multiple team members are playing an active role in shaping the lynch.

And, I suppose, a "third" option is that both of these two things are true.

I don't really know where I'm going with this, but I guess my point is that we should be wary. Especially wary when everything seems a little too easy. And personally I thought the Tuatara lynch did seem a little too easy, though I understand why people wanted to go through with it.

Personally, I kind of think Beagle's surprise about Tuatara's alignment feels like it's being played up, but that might just be me. I will want to read more, but I still think Flamingo is the most promising lynch (sorry Flamingo). Part of that is gut, part of that is the reasons I gave before.

And finally... Both Beagle and Flamingo had a lot of votes removed from them if I am counting correctly. To me, that says two things. One, that we have a lot of soothers. This is a major feature in whatever unusual role distribution Orlok put together. Which is kind of surprising, because the Bondsmiths are supposed to be an order with only three members. And two... From the sheer volume of vote manipulators, I conclude that some of them are probably elims (and by the way, a vote manipulator might make sense on a smaller than average team). Whether they were protecting a team member or just framing someone is totally IKYK, but we can at least know that they probably have manip powers. Alternately, another possible explanation for all the vote manipulations is that a plethora of worldhoppers all rolled vote cancellation powers on the same cycle.

Anyhow, all of those who have actions they can take tonight, please make good use of them.

I think that's about it.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

29 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said:

Alright, Tuatara was innocent. Not really surprised but I am glad for it to be confirmed.

I think we need to consider two possibilities.

1. We have an abnormally small elim team. It is balanced out with some good powers (worst-case scenario a dustbringer), and depending on if Orlok uses dice or not, possibly a collection of skilled players.

2. The eliminators have been able to control the lynch without too much effort. Either because all of the current suspicions were off the mark, or because they are playing on the offensive, and multiple team members are playing an active role in shaping the lynch.

And, I suppose, a "third" option is that both of these two things are true.

I don't really know where I'm going with this, but I guess my point is that we should be wary. Especially wary when everything seems a little too easy. And personally I thought the Tuatara lynch did seem a little too easy, though I understand why people wanted to go through with it.

Personally, I kind of think Beagle's surprise about Tuatara's alignment feels like it's being played up, but that might just be me. I will want to read more, but I still think Flamingo is the most promising lynch (sorry Flamingo). Part of that is gut, part of that is the reasons I gave before.

And finally... Both Beagle and Flamingo had a lot of votes removed from them if I am counting correctly. To me, that says two things. One, that we have a lot of soothers. This is a major feature in whatever unusual role distribution Orlok put together. Which is kind of surprising, because the Bondsmiths are supposed to be an order with only three members. And two... From the sheer volume of vote manipulators, I conclude that some of them are probably elims (and by the way, a vote manipulator might make sense on a smaller than average team). Whether they were protecting a team member or just framing someone is totally IKYK, but we can at least know that they probably have manip powers. Alternately, another possible explanation for all the vote manipulations is that a plethora of worldhoppers all rolled vote cancellation powers on the same cycle.

Anyhow, all of those who have actions they can take tonight, please make good use of them.

I think that's about it.

Possibility 1 is looking increasingly likely. Unfortunately, the issue with a small elim team is that hitting an elim at random is really, really hard. This simply encourages the Elims to blend into the shadows more, so that they are less likely to be targeted. And your point about an Elim Dustbringer is worthy of consideration. If the Elims do have a Dustbringer, than we should be scared to death. They’d have a small team to compensate, yes, but that team would likely include a Skybreaker to find important roles, and maybe an Elsecaller to help them stay alive longer. Though, given the fact that no one’s role claimed publicly, any assumptions we make are just that until we actually manage to take down an Elim. 

And...about that...I’ve now been at the forefront of two lynches of semiactive villagers. Part of me is kicking myself for tunneling on Tuatara near the end, as I concur with several other people that the lynch was beginning to feel too easy, but the other part of me knows that the other options weren’t any better. Vulture has said nothing that makes me explicitly trust her, but comes off as very village regardless. Flamingo, who I did accuse earlier, has stepped forward and become an active villager, and while I understand that some people see their language as suspicious, I think it’s just their writing style, as they used similar language in our PMs. Beagle I’ve defended so much at this point I feel like a broken record, but he either is a villager or the most clever Elim ever to take form and walk Roshar. If I lose to him, I will do so happily, because he had me completely fooled.

Also, I’d like people to stop with the incessant suspicions of our PM group. While I understand that from the outside it looks mysterious and suspect, the village has gotten word from every person that was in it, and our accounts all agree. It was an attempt to consolidate and resolve the D2 lynch on a player we believed suspicious, initially bringing it towards Axolotl, and after their post, towards Swan. It was done mostly to preserve Flamingo, who the group saw as villager. I really don’t see how any of that screams “elim,” especially considering that as Elims, there would be little reason for us to so fully reveal the content of the PM in the main thread. Especially if the PM is as suspect as most of you are portraying it.

As for the recent vote manip, I’m pretty sure I know the player who removed Tuatara’s vote on Beagle, but I get the feeling they wouldn’t want me to say anything. I mostly trust said player, but I don’t feel like it’s a wise idea to reveal who they are in thread. 

I doubt the core trust group (me, Beagle, Flamingo) will make it through the night unharmed. If I’m the one to die, I give Flamingo and Beagle full permission to reveal anything I said to them in PMs, though I doubt it’ll help much. 

[Mauve Crocodile]

@Turquoise Gorilla sorry that I played up how much I talked about Flamingo. I generally try to list my reasking, fully, without just jumping on the bandwagon. If people just say "I agree with this person" then it doesn't tell us that much useful stuff, whereas if people explain their reasoning then it gives us more to go off of. Sorry if it seems like I was playing up my thoughts. 

 

@Ivory Dragonfly I think that the PM is such a topic of hot debate is because we still have relatively little info about it, as well as the fact that we mostly have no idea about anything. The Elims have either completey stayed off of our radar, or eacaped the lynch. We need to be able to find info about something if we want to be able to win this game, and as it stands we know next to nothing. 

[Mint Heron]

I agree with Crocodile that the lynch on Day Two is still worth discussing. Dragonfly, Squawk (Flamingo), Jai (Beagle), and anyone else who was in it, can you give an accounting of how things in the PMs went, starting from the beginning? You three keep on saying that it looks bad without the context of the PM, and but then you neglect to tell us in detail what happened in the PM. Without further information, the idea that four or five players were all able to agree that one particular player was village enough to swing a lynch off of at the last minute is hard to swallow; perhaps since Dragonfly is new he has a lower trust threshold, but that doesn't explain everyone else. The mere existence of a PM is not enough explanation as the Sympathisers were every bit as capable of making PMs as villagers at that point in the game.

Late but important message from the House of Paranoia: PM safety is king, kids! The Sympathisers can't cozy up to you and shank you in your sleep if you never let them get close  Don't let the Sympathisers getcha! 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Let's see. Info dump will have to wait until the morning when my brain can function and I can spew the random mess floating around in my head. For now, I'd just like to poke into the midst of the crowd and say I'm sus of gorilla, kangaroo, vulture, mouse, and possibly a few others. I'll let your curiosities boil as to why until I sleep and return...

I may or may not feel like a new rhino after some sleep.

[Turquoise Gorilla]

4 hours ago, Taupe Gecko said:

 

And finally... Both Beagle and Flamingo had a lot of votes removed from them if I am counting correctly. To me, that says two things. One, that we have a lot of soothers. This is a major feature in whatever unusual role distribution Orlok put together. Which is kind of surprising, because the Bondsmiths are supposed to be an order with only three members. And two... From the sheer volume of vote manipulators, I conclude that some of them are probably elims (and by the way, a vote manipulator might make sense on a smaller than average team). Whether they were protecting a team member or just framing someone is totally IKYK, but we can at least know that they probably have manip powers. Alternately, another possible explanation for all the vote manipulations is that a plethora of worldhoppers all rolled vote cancellation powers on the same cycle.

Considering we already have 2 downed village Lightweavers, elim vote manipulators seem very likely at this point. Here are the changes - Tuatara's vote is missing. Beagle's vote is missing. Crocodile's vote was moved from Flamingo to Tuatara.

I figure the Sympathizers can figure this out easily enough, so no harm in guessing that Beagle is a Willshaper and moved Crocodiles vote which is why their own vote was cancelled, and Tuatara was likely Soothed by Dragonfly's contact.

2 hours ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

@Turquoise Gorilla sorry that I played up how much I talked about Flamingo. I generally try to list my reasking, fully, without just jumping on the bandwagon. If people just say "I agree with this person" then it doesn't tell us that much useful stuff, whereas if people explain their reasoning then it gives us more to go off of. Sorry if it seems like I was playing up my thoughts. 

 

@Ivory Dragonfly I think that the PM is such a topic of hot debate is because we still have relatively little info about it, as well as the fact that we mostly have no idea about anything. The Elims have either completey stayed off of our radar, or eacaped the lynch. We need to be able to find info about something if we want to be able to win this game, and as it stands we know next to nothing. 

Thanks for the explanation, and no need to apologize. I'm glad when players fully explain themselves when voting, it just felt a little off to me for whatever reason.

[Quartz Zebra]

Dangit. If I'd been online at rollover, I might have tried to swap my vote over to Beagle to have a better chance of lynching one of the PM group. (By the way, Dustbringer, if you read this - if you have to lynch one of the group, I'd recommend Flamingo, because it would be more detrimental to the village to lynch Beagle or Dragonfly if we got it wrong, seeing as they both drive discussion. Then again, if you're significantly more suspicious of Beagle than Flamingo, go and do your thing. If you don't suspect any of the PM group, or are an Eliminator yourself... from my position, that's bad, bad news for the village.

@Oxblood Beagle - you said we would get 'hard evidence' from Tuatara's death, but honestly, I don't see what we've learned, other than this core group of you, Dragonfly and Flamingo is looking even more suspicious to me. What hard evidence did we gain from Tuatara's death?

These were the soothed votes from last night:

Cream Tuatara - voted for Flamingo, swapped to Beagle close to the end of the day. The soothed vote could have been to save either of them. I can see this being a villager soothe - while I think the Eliminators tried to save Flamingo by lynching Tuatara, they can't all have been Eliminators - it's quite possible that this was a villager who was genuinely suspicious of Tuatara, and thought that whatever vote they made would be a vote against whatever Village Soother wanted to do, so they soothed it.

Beagle - Vote Soothed. This could be me tunneling, but I see this as a Village Soother as well. (Either that, or Beagle's a Rioter, and forgot that Rioting cancels his own vote.)

Mauve Crocodile - Rioted to Tuatara from Flamingo. This is just gut, but I think if any were Eliminator manipulations, the Rioter vote would be it. To a villager, Rioting and Soothing are of equal power level - to a Soother, you can vote on who you're suspicious of and negate a vote off someone you aren't. The advantage Rioters have is being able to hide in the shadows - they don't have to state their preferences or prepare a defense for why they Rioted a vote to someone because it was all done in PM's. Also, I feel like I could very well be tunneling by this point as well - something I'm trying to keep an eye on to make sure I don't get too blinkered with my suspicion of the PM Group.

Village Soothers and other antagonists of lynching Flamingo/Beagle - Now that Tuatara is proven to be a villager, I ask for your help - killing just one of the core group should help us gather the alignments of all three of them, and I don't feel like that's the only way at this stage to move them back into a trust read. It would be so much better to confirm that they are villagers now rather than let them slip under our noses and perhaps lose the game of it. At the very least, if we lynch one of them and they do turn out to be village, we'll be able to move on, and perhaps that will allow everyone to analyse someone else and perhaps capture an actual Eliminator. I find the defense of Flamingo to be flimsy at best - reliant on PM's the village can't see and the assumption that Tuatara is really suspicious and this is some kind of attempt to protect him (we know how that turned out...) So please, I encourage you all - if none of these three players dies tonight to reveal their alignment, then we should make it a priority to lynch one of them tomorrow. My personal preference would be to lynch Flamingo, as the least detrimental of the three to lynch in case we get it wrong, but I would support a lynch of either of the other two if it came down to it.

3 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Let's see. Info dump will have to wait until the morning when my brain can function and I can spew the random mess floating around in my head. For now, I'd just like to poke into the midst of the crowd and say I'm sus of gorilla, kangaroo, vulture, mouse, and possibly a few others. I'll let your curiosities boil as to why until I sleep and return...

I may or may not feel like a new rhino after some sleep.

Errr... 1) You say that you'll explain your analysis in the morning, and 2) imply that you're going to have a pinchhitter take over in the morning, which is kind of contradictory. (Assuming I parsed that last sentence correctly, of course.)

I would be more interested in hearing your take on the events of the last day, to be honest, and whether you feel like that casts suspicion on this PM Group. After we lynch one of them, if they're an Eliminator, everyone will say "Oh yeah, of course I was suspicious of them the whole time. Heh. Shame I didn't vote on them." By asking as many players as possible about this now, hopefully we can get as much information about where everyone stands as possible. (Also, I really hope I'm not wrong about this. If I am, this will be embarrassing...)

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Alright, detailed summary of PM, because we need to move on from this:

beagle: messages everyone, says he wants me to trust Flamingo, and that we need to stop the lynch train on them. Expresses high suspicions of the lynch.

Flamingo: expresses initial suspicions of rhino and Swan. Says Rhino was untrustworthy from the beginning. Expresses suspicions of Axolotl, but worries about looking like an Elim trying to switch right after their vote on Gecko.

Albatross: expresses concern about the low number of voters, saying the Elims might not be voting because a villager, ie Flamingo, is getting lynched anyway.

Flamingo: expresses necessity of switching vote to Axo, worries about axo flipping village

beagle: optimistic, says we’re cleared if axo flips elim

Flamingo: sees Weasel in thread and hopes for a post from them on the game

beagle: wonders why ppl in thread would think that we as potential Elims would as be blatant as we are

 Albatross: says axo flipping elim should clear us, but agrees with weasel’s argument vs Swan

Beagle: agrees with suspicions of Swan. Tells Flamingo to vote axo to stay alive bc axo will vote Flamingo. Tried to contact others to swing lynch off flamingo

flamingo: wants to wait and see what axo says

Beagle: tells flamingo waiting is ok. Wonders why axo didn’t post anything after looking at thread

flamingo: Albatross: Flamingo; albatross: Beagle: reactions to axo’s post, removing votes is suggested

Flamingo: asks mods if axo is OK. Suggests vote movement

albatross: says in pm that she removed vote in thread, says lion is merciless

beagle: says he PMed axo asking if he wanted a pinch hitter

Albatross: literally says ok and switches to mobile

beagle: affirms axo is getting a pinch hitter, suggests moving vote to Swan

Flamingo: says Swan lynch sounds good, hopes Swan flips elim

Beagle: agrees with flamingo

Albatross: glad axo got a pinch hitter, says Elims will use this against them later

Beagle: wants to add elephant to pm

orlok (gold text): don’t add elephant, start a new pm instead

flamingo: compares gold text to the voice of God, says ok, and mentions Zebra is back on

Beagle: apologizes to Orlok, remarks Swan is trying to throw doubt, and begs that she is elim

flamingo: says we’re missing something

end of PM

there, you have the whole thing. I now have to go to school and will be on the next cycle.

[Oxblood Beagle]

@Quartz Zebrawell we would have gotten hard info if they had turned elim. Which I really thought was going to happen. 

Also, I'll reiterate that Ivory never got on to comment on that original PM, before anyone asks. 

[Sunburst Toucan]

4 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said:

I would be more interested in hearing your take on the events of the last day, to be honest, and whether you feel like that casts suspicion on this PM Group. After we lynch one of them, if they're an Eliminator, everyone will say "Oh yeah, of course I was suspicious of them the whole time. Heh. Shame I didn't vote on them." By asking as many players as possible about this now, hopefully we can get as much information about where everyone stands as possible. (Also, I really hope I'm not wrong about this. If I am, this will be embarrassing...)

"I could give you the brief version of my notes." Vanna quickly flipped to her notebook. "I started compiling note son Flamingo today already, but didn't have the time to write them all down cohesively. The short version is that Flamingo really looks very new to me. Especially that breach of the local etiquette involving tone of voice (aka 'blue text'), is something that no one that has been around longer would do." Vanna rifled through her notes until she found the relevant part.  "Now, the one big suspicious thing Onyx did was her distancing herself from the lynch of the first day and her accusation of beagle and Dragonfly. If she'd been accusing someone else there I'd have voted against her yesterday. However, the way she went after beagle and Ivory there suggests that they aren't all part of the murderers together. Now, there was the adamant defense from beagle that he believed that Flamingo was village. This helped with stilling my suspicion somewhat initially, but the notes that seem to be a major part of beagle's belief have yet to to surface, so I'm becoming less sure of that."

"Now, let's talk about beagle." Vanna raised a hand to forestall any questions. "I'll share my actual conclusion about Flamingo in a bit, but it's linked to my conclusion about beagle, so bear with me." Vanna took a couple of seconds to get to the small collection of notes on Beagle. "So, beagle has been very talkative. Not just that, but he's also been somewhat involved in trying to get everyone talking. That's good, and part of the reason I didn't really suspect him. Nothing about his votes has made me particularly suspicious, until the swan turn-around. It was quickly made clear that this was discussed  in private, but it has taken until now for us to be given a proper account of what was actually discussed. Beagle's tone also switched in the last couple of hours today, and he seemed to become very manipulative, branding those that didn't agree with him as 'confused' (potentially unintentionally, but that's how I understood that comment), while urging those that clearly weren't confused to 'take a leap of faith'. Talk like that really reminds me more of a murderer trying to buy as much time as possible before he is inevitably unmasked."

"However, that brings me to the big problem in my argument. I don't think Flamingo and Beagle are both murderers, but their behavior towards each-other seems to be clearing both of them to a certain amount. Whatever evidence Flamingo handed over seems to have swayed beagle, and many of the most suspicious things beagle has said where, at least in part, in defense of flamingo. If flamingo is innocent, and beagle is a murderer, then he wouldn't have fought as hard to save her after the swan lynch. After all, if flamingo was proven to be innocent then his group was given a bit more legitimacy."

"So, to summarize, I don't think Flamingo and beagle are both murderers because of the way flamingo attacked beagle, but then joined his group afterwards. Distancing yourself from your co-conspirators is a good idea, publicly joining them after you attracted attention to that isn't. Of the two, Beagle has been acting the most suspicious int he last couple of hours, but it doesn't really make sense that he's taken several of those actions in defense of flamingo if flamingo isn't one of his co-conspirators."

Vanna realized that she had been talking for a couple of minutes straight. "That might not have been the short version, sorry. I know that my lack of a solid conclusion might not be very helpful either, but I have trouble finding a completely rational cause and effect in their actions. Even if both are innocent, beagle's tactics in defense of flamingo still look overly manipulative, so I don't like that option any more than the others I've discussed. I hope this has been some use to someone, at least."

[Oxblood Beagle]

A couple more things. 

First, i had already posted explaining what happened in the PM, although not in as much detail. But seriously, i feel like I'm repeating myself a lot. 

Second, perhaps I have been too defensive of Flamingo. But I'm really paranoid, and I don't want to lose the only people I trust right now. I would much rather lynch people who I'm actually suspicious of. 

Third, I've been waiting for someone to point out the paradox of me encouraging activity and other opinions, and then rejecting said opinions. I had noticed it, but I wasn't about to point it out. Anyway, the way i explain it is thus: I was planning to encourage activity, elim or village, before the game started. That does not effect my in game thoughts, and I'm still most trusting of my own conclusions. I don't like to rely on others analysis, and I'm generally suspicious of others opinions. Yes, I've been wrong multiple times now, but I would rather I be wrong, when I know I'm village, than have the village get led on and never kill those who I suspect. 

I've considered I'm being too much of a mayor, but... idk. Again, you guys choose what to do with me. I've already given my list of reads, my major suspicions, so I dont have more to say besides- BE ACTIVE. 

[Quartz Zebra]

1 hour ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

A couple more things. 

First, i had already posted explaining what happened in the PM, although not in as much detail. But seriously, i feel like I'm repeating myself a lot. 

Second, perhaps I have been too defensive of Flamingo. But I'm really paranoid, and I don't want to lose the only people I trust right now. I would much rather lynch people who I'm actually suspicious of. 

Third, I've been waiting for someone to point out the paradox of me encouraging activity and other opinions, and then rejecting said opinions. I had noticed it, but I wasn't about to point it out. Anyway, the way i explain it is thus: I was planning to encourage activity, elim or village, before the game started. That does not effect my in game thoughts, and I'm still most trusting of my own conclusions. I don't like to rely on others analysis, and I'm generally suspicious of others opinions. Yes, I've been wrong multiple times now, but I would rather I be wrong, when I know I'm village, than have the village get led on and never kill those who I suspect. 

I've considered I'm being too much of a mayor, but... idk. Again, you guys choose what to do with me. I've already given my list of reads, my major suspicions, so I dont have more to say besides- BE ACTIVE. 

Hmmm... this feels really genuine to me, tbh. And, honestly, if you were an Eliminator, I wonder whether you'd have tried so hard to keep Flamingo alive and cast so much suspicion on yourself. If a lynch forms tomorrow on you or Flamingo, I won't argue against it, but... I might not argue for it, either. At the very least, I feel like perhaps I've tunneled to the point where I wasn't presenting my views on other players - something I really think I should do (I hope to get analysis of one player (not in this PM Group) up tonight) and hopefully spread the discussion around a lot more than we're currently doing. If we want the Eliminators to hide, keeping the discussion on 1 or 2 players each Cycle is going to help them a lot more than it helps us, and I don't honestly think there's anything further I can say that will be useful that the thread hasn't heard from me already. I may well try and encourage discussion on several different players tomorrow, in the interests of preventing the village from being too narrowly focused, as I think we were the past couple cycles.

I know this post feels like a total 180, but... I suppose I'm a lot less certain since yesterday.