Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Violet Axolotl]

2 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

That's an awfully convenient thing to say. If Tuatara flips village, you can say that you told us so. If Tuatara flips Elim, then you can blow it off as a bad gut feeling. Looks like someone who wants to derail the lynch without looking like you're wanting to derail the lynch.

I'm going to keep a closer eye on this.

I have no intention of derailing any lynch, just stating my thoughts on the matter.

By all means, keep an eye on me.  It won't help you, but if it's what you want....

[Turquoise Gorilla]

24 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

The other thing I am interested in is surely if there is a skybreaker in the game they scanned beagle last night. What did they come up with?

@Sunburst Toucan ah... thanks  *blushes*

We can only hope a code or some kind of system was set up before PM's went down if that's the case.

19 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

agreed gorrilla I was suspicious of rhino and then they apoligized to me last night right before pm's went out for suspecting me and maybe that clouded my judgement but rhino does have a history of lurking and only contributing when it seems that someone notices

I'm not very suspicious of them. I was just responding to Beagle's post last night where he said he was suspicious of Rhino, so I did some research to see how I felt about Rhino to compare against Beagle's stance. Still, Rhino does need to post more.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

16 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

Some questions for the GMs:

1. If a player is protected and attacked, will it be revealed in the writeup?

2. Can a Lightweaver choose not to use Illumination on themselves for a Night?

3. What happens if both a Bondsmith and a Willshaper use their abilities on the same player’s vote?

Edited for format.

1. The identity of the player attacked will be revealed in the writeup, yes.

2. Yes, the Lightweaver can choose to do this, but must put in an order to do so.

3. Their 'soothed' vote would be moved to the player they were 'rioted towards', adding 0 votes to the total votes on that player.

[Mint Heron]

1 hour ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

The other thing I am interested in is surely if there is a skybreaker in the game they scanned beagle last night. What did they come up with?

@Sunburst Toucan ah... thanks  *blushes*

Flamingo, that's a dangerous line of thought. First, a village Skybreaker (especially one who can't use a cleared intermediary now that PMs are down) shouldn't reveal themselves this early in the game, unless they fancy becoming dead very, very quickly. Second, that's assuming the Skybreaker is village or even exists. In past games, evil Seekers have presented themselves to the village and gained a lot of trust simply for being a Seeker. Skybreakers are not and should never be treated as safe roles. And all that is even assuming we have a Skybreaker this game; AGs are known for troll role distributions and I wouldn't expect that to change even if Meta's not running this one.

1 minute ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

1. The identity of the player attacked will be revealed in the writeup, yes.

2. Yes, the Lightweaver can choose to do this, but must put in an order to do so.

3. Their 'soothed' vote would be moved to the player they were 'rioted towards', adding 0 votes to the total votes on that player.

Appreciated, guv.  

[Pearl Chameleon]

I was going to make a post today, but some things have come up. I'll try to post tomorrow if I'm feeling up to it.

[Magenta Albatross]

This is where I'm at currently. The reads are based on mostly the recently active players and some moderately active players. 

village leans

Beagle - Very active in discussion since day 1. Pm'd a lot of players including myself and generally putting themselves at the forefront.

Ivory - Similar to beagle in that they are active discussion participant. I feel the posts come off as genuine and in the villagers' best interests. I think the topic of 'new players' can sometimes attract the bad kind of attention as some players, namely vulture, have discussed in detail. So I don't think they play that card as an elim. And then the explanation that they don't want us to hold back on lynch if we feel they're elim goes to affirm this. Overall, their posts feel like pure stream of consciousness that I would associate with a new village player. (not looking down on you here or anything Ivory. Just something I've noticed before)

Onyx - Felt as thought they were posting with little regard to what the posts actually contained initially, leading to a few suspicions on them. Pm interactions with them felt as though coming from a villagery mindset especially in regards to beagle whom they initially suspected because of Pms and were willing to re-evaluate on swan but that didn't turn out too well for us.

 

Slight village leans

Elephant - Trying to be active and contribute to discussion from day 1. Their interactions with players give me the feel that they are trying to figure them out and their vote movement feels as though it's coming from town. Don't feel agenda-y but I don't know if we can say anyone feels really agenda-y at this point. overall leaning more towards the village pending further reads. 

Gorilla - Going into reads on players and offering thoughts rather than focusing too much on mechanics (not that that's bad thing) felt like genuine villager concern and solvey attitude. Something I feel comes from villagers as they're talking about their stance and not just trying to blend it. However, almost seems like they're joining the party a bit late and I think there's about 3-4 posts of contents so although I feel they're a villager, there could be potential to be an elim here. Overall, slight village for now.

kangaroo - Not overly active but participating in discussion. Some of their posts read great to me but others not so much as they seem to have a carefree tone and feels natural. The recent post on beagle I feel is hard to come from an elim as very few people I feel are overly suspicious of beagle(I have some doubts in the back of my mind but willing to go with them as a villager for now) now so trying to draw suspicions on beagle shouldn't work from an elims perspective, at least in my opinion. Some might disagree with me on this. Beagle said that elims would try to lynch him rather than night kill him but I feel the opposite.  

 

50/50

zebra - It seems to have changed slightly this turn but they seemed to have a habit of making 1 large post at the very end of a turn. Either right before day end or night end and they seemed to contain reads that were only based on actions a full cycle ago. This turn they seemed to have changed that and are making many posts and taking part in ongoing discussion and engaging with more players. So currently I think they have the potential to be village but could swing the other way. 

Axolotl - Had suspicion on them day2  but we all know how that turned out. I got village vibes from the last few posts at the end of day 2 but I will consider it NAI as that could come from anyone  frustrated IRL and will base Axolotl on their actions during the game from now on. 

Tuatara - I can see some of the cases people have made for them. The push on beagle today after beagle had a vote felt like them trying to get another wagon started and the reasons felt a bit weak. I think at this point, tuatara could go either way and there's  chance to be an elim.

Vulture -  From the discussion and interaction they have had with other players, vulture seems to give off experience and understanding of the game. I put them in 50/50 because apart from their thoughts on one or two players, they have discussed mostly mechanics especially the tendency to keep talking about 'new player' with Ivory gives the impression that they are active and playing but not really actively participating in game talk. I think they could be 50/50 but leaning slightly more elim than village right now. 

 

elim leans

sunburnt Toucan - Through all of day 2, they did RP, pinged me and then took their vote off me after I replied. I voiced some concern about them that they feel too focused on a narrow player base and I can see today that they are doing analysis on more players. However, it still off because, apart from one or two players, they're not really taking a stance and most of them end with 'overall I feel undecided' or 'not enough to determine'  their alignment. And besides this they are slightly suspicious of ostrich  and most suspicious of tuatara who is also lined up to be the lynch today but still do not vote them with 'I am not sure'. Now if I look on the other side, this could come from a villager who is not used to taking firm stances but I feel as though it's more from someone not wanting to commit themselves and stay open to going on any valid lynch not their own and not a teammate's. 

Scorpion - Although this is weaker than Toucan, Scorpion felt a bit off with their tone at the beginning, stiff, for the lack of a better word. Day 2 they gave me a better feel but I want to put them in this section to keep them in mind. The posts today are all saying that they will soon make some analysis but keeps getting delayed. I could see this tactic from an elim who doesn't have much suspicions and wants to stay undercover as long as they are not being talked about. @Amethyst Scorpion I know you've already made a post regarding this but if you feel that you do not have time for deep analysis, then you don't need to do it. We'd rather you just give brief thoughts on the game and maybe one or two players allowing us to form an opinion on you then that would be appreciated.

For now, I'll place my vote on Vulture looking at the choices and I think this could possibly give us an elim. 

Overall, I feel I have more people I think are villagers than elims. Feel free to give thoughts on these reads and maybe talk about angles I may have overlooked, as I'm willing to re-evaluate because I know these could be off the mark.

 

 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Oh, I agree, @Magenta Albatross, and I don’t feel obligated to provide the detailed analysis. I did feel a need to say that I wouldn’t, however, since I had said I would and genuinely intended to at the time. Since I was planning to change what I’d publicly stated I would do, I figured it’d go over better if I just said it outright. I don’t know how much I’ll even pull off with these shorter posts and limited analysis, since I’m still having a hard time keeping track of player names and who said what. I’ll try, but I honestly am having enough trouble just not saying the wrong name. Some of you might be able to use that to guess my identity, in fact.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Agree with Albatross’s reads on Beagle, Onyx, Elephant, Zebra, Axoltol, Scorpion, and to some extent Toucan. Toucan’s hard to read through all the RP, but she seems neither cleared nor suspicious, so I’m inclined to let her live for now. We’ll have more info on her once the lynch resolves.

I’d move Kangaroo and Gorilla to 50/50. While both have been posting analysis, they’ve also been doing so infrequently, and not enough for me to draw too many conclusions. I’ve got a village feeling from Gorilla, though, and nothing about his posts seem to stand out as suspicious. So maybe he does belong in the slight village category, but I feel that he hasn’t said enough to merit being put in one category or the other, despite his recent activity of late.

Tuatara I’d move to slight elim based on the same reasons I voted for him. Weird accusation of Beagle, combined with other short and noncommittal posts, seems like an elim trying to hide. 

Vulture is a weird case. She’s spent three posts attempting to decipher if I’m a new player or not while simultaneously claiming that such things don’t matter. However, her other commentary on the lynch seems helpful. Really helpful, in fact. I’m not sure exactly what to make of her, but for now I’m actually leaning village. Unless someone can point something out in her behavior that’s suspect, of course. @Onyx Flamingo, would you mind further explanation of your vote on Vulture other than odd activity levels?

[Amber Vulture]

4 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Then there was vulture... vulture who participated in the bird council accusing swan but wouldn't do so in the thread, 

I don’t think this is a valid accusation. When Swan was lynched, I publicly acknowledged that I had been suspicious of Swan and that had I been there when the lynch train developed, I would likely have voted for him. It’s either a mistake or a disingenuous falsehood to say I wouldn’t make my suspicions public

vulture who appears after missing the whole first day during the night cycle. 

I received a warning that I was nearing the inactivity filter deadline which was sent to my usual account, meaning I received an email notification. I had forgotten about the game with a rather hectic schedule lately, but that email prompted me to begin playing, hence my delayed start

Vulture who tried to get poeple to not use PM's during the night though that may have been a misunderstanding but it could have been elims trying to stifle communication.

That was actually because I was PMed by Beagle and didn’t want him to accidentally break the rules, but also didn’t want to break the rules myself to message him and remind him. I posted in the thread, since I figured Beagle would be active enough to check. That would be a poor lie to make as an Elim, knowing that the GMs would correct me promptly. This feels more like a convenient accusation than one that legitimately holds water

Squawk hated this, but due to Amber vultures unprecedented participation in the group today trying desperately to get out of the outside circle of discussion after we all said we would be watching it It seemed suspicious to squawk timing wise." @Amber Vulture why didn't you speak up as much in the previous days?" Squawk squawked.

It’s finally the weekend, and as such I’m more able to discuss in spare time. I’m additionally preempting a possible reduction in activity due to busyness during the upcoming week, which I hope to avoid but may prove inevitable due to factors outside my control.

I’d encourage you to vote on the person you said you “honestly really did suspect a lot”, namely Tuatara. Expressing heavy suspicion of someone and then voting for someone else noncommittally reads as rather suspicious, given that it’s a good way to distance yourself while still trying to save the lynchee from the lynch. You say you “hate” lynching me, and I’m rather reluctant to be lynched myself, so why not vote for your primary suspicion instead?  

1 hour ago, Magenta Albatross said:

 

50/50

Vulture -  From the discussion and interaction they have had with other players, vulture seems to give off experience and understanding of the game. I put them in 50/50 because apart from their thoughts on one or two players, they have discussed mostly mechanics especially the tendency to keep talking about 'new player' with Ivory gives the impression that they are active and playing but not really actively participating in game talk. I think they could be 50/50 but leaning slightly more elim than village right now. 

I hadn’t noted such a tendency on my part. I feel I’ve dedicated significantly more time to analysis than I have to discussing Ivory’s newness. That said, I mainly post as I go without any wider consideration for the pattern of my posts, so if I am mistaken, I apologize, especially to Ivory. I try not to patronize new members, so if I have been I legitimately regret it. 

Quote

Overall, I feel I have more people I think are villagers than elims. Feel free to give thoughts on these reads and maybe talk about angles I may have overlooked, as I'm willing to re-evaluate because I know these could be off the mark.

It’s good that you have more village reads than elim reads, given that there are more village members than Elims. 

Edited January 21, 2018 by Amber Vulture

[Turquoise Gorilla]

1 hour ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Slight village leans

Gorilla - Going into reads on players and offering thoughts rather than focusing too much on mechanics (not that that's bad thing) felt like genuine villager concern and solvey attitude. Something I feel comes from villagers as they're talking about their stance and not just trying to blend it. However, almost seems like they're joining the party a bit late and I think there's about 3-4 posts of contents so although I feel they're a villager, there could be potential to be an elim here. Overall, slight village for now.

 

9 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

I’d move Kangaroo and Gorilla to 50/50. While both have been posting analysis, they’ve also been doing so infrequently, and not enough for me to draw too many conclusions. I’ve got a village feeling from Gorilla, though, and nothing about his posts seem to stand out as suspicious. So maybe he does belong in the slight village category, but I feel that he hasn’t said enough to merit being put in one category or the other, despite his recent activity of late.

Both are accurate assessments, considering I'm a pinch hitter. I wasn't certain if I was supposed to keep quiet about that, so I didn't mention it at the time, but now that I know it's fine to reveal that, there you go. I want to keep a consistent level of activity, so even though I can't promise large posts every Cycle, things should actually start getting easier now that I'm caught up on things and am getting familiar with who's who.

Stolen Updated Vote Count
Tuatara : Dragonfly, Beagle, Vulture, Scorpion, Elephant (5)
Vulture : Penguin, Flamingo, Albatross(3)
Beagle : Kangaroo, Tuatara (2)
Ostrich : Zebra (1)

The lynch on Vulture feels a little out of the blue, but I'm not sure if I'm against it, considering my earlier defences of Tuatara. In terms of which is the more useful lynch, I'd say killing a Sympathizer Vulture is more helpful than a Sympathizer Tuatara, but at the same time a dead village Vulture is more harmful than a dead village Tuatara. Sorry Tuatara, no offence, it's just that Vulture has been posting more content. Anyways, I'm being very indecisive, and can't seem to collect my thoughts very well at the moment, so I might sign off for now and take a break. I wouldn't say we necessarily have to lynch one of these 2 candidates, but as I said, I don't have a clear enough head to offer an alternative.

To try and keep tabs on lurkers, here's a list of players I feel have faded into the background this Cycle - Azure Mouse, Emerald Falcon, Indigo Weasel, Muave Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat, and Taupe Gecko. Falcon might not quite count as a lurker, since they're a pinch hitter, but I think they've had time to look things over enough to give us some surface thoughts at least. If someone on this list explained that they'd be busy this Turn, my apologies.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

45 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

I’d encourage you to vote on the person you said you “honestly really did suspect a lot”, namely Tuatara. Expressing heavy suspicion of someone and then voting for someone else noncommittally reads as rather suspicious, given that it’s a good way to distance yourself while still trying to save the lynchee from the lynch. You say you “hate” lynching me, and I’m rather reluctant to be lynched myself, so why not vote for your primary suspicion instead?  

I hadn’t noted such a tendency on my part. I feel I’ve dedicated significantly more time to analysis than I have to discussing Ivory’s newness. That said, I mainly post as I go without any wider consideration for the pattern of my posts, so if I am mistaken, I apologize, especially to Ivory. I try not to patronize new members, so if I have been I legitimately regret it. 

It’s good that you have more village reads than elim reads, given that there are more village members than Elims. 

You haven’t come off as patronizing at all, don’t worry. Your analysis has been more frequent, and as I said before it’s been helpful. 

Regarding my earlier arguments and your refutations of them, I’d like to clarify that I didn’t think that Beagle’s information was all correct if he was village. I was mainly trying to point out that his frequent postings of his suspicions could be interpreted from an village perspective if the Elims killed him and he flipped village. With him still alive, there’s still that tiny seed of suspicion in everyone (myself included, though my logic tells me otherwise) that he just might be Elim. And so, we can’t quite fully trust him and are forced to not take his posts at face value. Believe me, Beagle’s doing much more alive than dead, but his work is undermined by the constant underlying voice in the back of everyone’s mind saying that he’s playing us all for fools. 

In regards to my inactives comment, I should have been more specific in saying that the Elims are choosing players that will give us little info about the game if they die. Iguana? A few short posts that didn’t say much. Scarlet Octopus? Same thing (I mean, they had one uber-long post that painfully dissected one of Kangaroo’s posts, but other than that, nothing much). If they break the pattern, I have a feeling it’ll be for an obvious reason, i.e. their Skybreaker (if they have one) finds our Dustbringer. The less info the Elims give us, the better it is for them, as our lynches are less informed.

[Mint Heron]

After looking at Day Two thread, the Elyle (Swan) lynch looks rather strange. To be honest, I couldn't follow any of the reasoning for it. Weasel's and Elephant's votes rely on a mischaracterisation of Elyle’s argument, as they suggested that Elyle was only majorly suspicious of Gecko, even when Elyle said he suspected that a Sympathiser Jai (Beagle) and Albatross were trying to save their teammate Squawk (Flamingo). The other reasoning given for the votes is even sparser. Looking at the results of the lynch, I can’t help but wonder if Jai and Albatross were trying to swing the lynch off of Squawk, as they voted in unison on the Axolotl lynch and the Elyle lynch.

Jai, your method of swinging the lynch was unnecessarily sneaky and thus, suspicious. Why did you choose to PM players and ask them to swing a lynch? Why not do it in-thread, where everybody could see your reasoning?

 

[Amber Vulture]

I’d like to state for the record that @Onyx Flamingo has been online since I posted my comment, which I know because as my comment reached “3 hours ago”, his last login remained at “2 hours ago”. If he disappears until the end of the day cycle and his vote remains on me because of claimed inactivity after I made my post, that will heavily increase my suspicion of him, as he professed to want discussion and then did not promptly reply to my post despite being online. Apologies if this came off as aggressive, but given the fact that I am currently one of the primary targets for the lynch, I wanted to make sure it was said before my possible untimely death.

Edited January 21, 2018 by Amber Vulture

[Salmon Meerkat]

My dearest apologies, but I have been quite busy today with a variety of activities, and I have not been able to get much time on the Shard. So let's take a look at what's happened.

The current leading lynch is Tuatara, followed by a tie between Beagle and Vulture. Tuatara has been mainly targeted, from what I've been able to gather, for minor inactivity and certain suspicious posts. However, the key posts referenced are a bit of a stretch to say suspicious. Vulture has been mainly targeted because of past inactivity and only a recent return to posting, which had "suspicious timing." As for Beagle, the accusations I've seen pretty much are a retaliation vote from Tuatara and insinuations that Beagle is a bit "mayory" a statement derived from Beagle's PM connections and alleged actions. I believe another underlying factor is Beagle's role in Swan's lynch and that whole fiasco.

Unfortunately, my impression of Beagle is really starting to sour. At first, I thought that Beagle was all well and good, a nice active player. However, starting at about the Swan bandwagon, it seemed like Beagle was becoming manipulative and slyly swinging lynches. Dragonfly is very trusting of Beagle, perhaps because he wants to believe that Beagle can be trusted. However, I would not like to lynch Beagle without further evidence, especially since it is such an active player.

Vulture is a strange lynch to me, and I'm not so sure about Tuatara either.

[Mint Heron]

Just as I can devote my full time to this, the conversation slows down. Sometimes I hate my timezone >>

-

Kharsis looked out at Drelan, Akedar, and a few interested kids he didn’t recognise: his audience.

“There I was in the boat, hiding between some barrels of grain, and all of a sudden this deckhand found me,” Kharsis said. “Big, tall, hulking, probably able to crush me to a pulp without trying. I got on my knees, begged him not to tell the shipmaster. He said he’d do it, if I give him fifteen diamond marks. Of course, if I had fifteen marks I wouldn’t have to sneak myself to Thaylen City, so I haggled with him and he brought it down to five.” He set the tankard down and lowered his voice dramatically. His audience instinctively drew closer. “For the rest of the day I thought I was safe, so I fell asleep. And then... when I woke up, next thing I knew, the shipmaster was hauling me off. Stinking cheat, he sold me out! After I paid him and everything!”
Uh, hello?
Besides him, Akedar made sounds of disgust. Drelan grinned. “Of course man, you think the shipmaster was going to tolerate your ugly mug on his ship? It’s a wonder he didn’t kick you off sooner.”
Do, uh, do I know you?
Kharsis rolled his eyes. “Pfff, you’re just jealous of my astonishingly good looks. The ladies absolutely swarmed me in Kharbranth.”

“You, good looking?” Akedar said with a snort. “Do you even realize how old you are?”

“Yup,” Kharsis said. “Almost three years younger than you, so whatever I look like, you’re far worse.” He looked at Drelan and Akedar’s identical grins and hastily changed the subject. “Anyways, I after that I decided being a stowaway was too risky. I had to find another way instead.”

The door to the bar creaked open. Kharsis glanced over -- and stumbled in his story. “I’d have to find another way,” he repeated. Storms! What was Elion doing here? “That’s how, how I ended up taking a gig to ferry messages around Kharbranth. Folks without spanreeds...they’d ask me to send messages from to someone else, and, uh, if I got my delivery in faster than expected I might earn a bonus or two.”

Elion took a seat at a table, just beyond the ring of listeners around Kharsis. He leaned back in his chair and looked intently at Kharsis with an odd expression on his face.
What if you don’t have a choice?
Kharsis focused on Drelan’s and Akedar’s faces instead, but he could still see Elion at the edge of his vision; watching him, judging him. “It was, was, hard work, running from place to place all day. Good for stamina, that is, but exhausting. I’d go from, from one side of Kharbranth to the other side, and all the way back, and then, uh, back to the beginning again.” Kharsis broke off. He couldn’t do this, not with Elion breathing down his neck and intruding on time meant for catching up and bantering. He lowered his voice and spoke to Drelan. “Elion’s here. Can you distract him long enough to let me get away?” He asked. Drelan nooded.

Kharsis stood up. “Sorry about that, have to go relieve myself,” he said in a louder voice. “Akedar, watch my drink, okay?”
By the time it happened
He’d spent so many years avoiding his family; he could spend a few more days avoiding them. Just the sight of his brother brought down a weight on Kharsis’s shoulders and made him want to be somewhere, anywhere, other than here. What madness had made him come back here, to be ambushed like this at any moment? Now that Kharsis was back, Elion wouldn’t let him leave Rennan without talking to him first.
I was up in it to my neck
For good reason, too. Elion had things to say, things that had probably festered inside him for the past twenty-six years, things he deserved to say if only to get some peace of mind, things that hadn’t been made right by the passing of time. Things that Kharsis had no answers for.
I was a corrupted agent of evil -- and I always had been
And so Kharsis ran, if only for a short respite. He ran as he always had and always would, and deep down Kharsis hated himself for that.
Can’t run away from that

 

[Azure Mouse]

15 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said:

That reminds me of the other thing I meant to ask - was Octopus active in PM's? If they were, they might have claimed to someone and subsequently been killed by the Eliminators. Or, the Eliminators were just lucky. Both are possible.

Only ever received a single PM from Beagle, so I can't really comment.

14 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

With Opal dead, I see two possibilities for it. The Dustbringer is a villager, who thought Opal was highly suspicious from the bandwagon yesterday, or an Elim (Leras Preserve us) who wanted to prove that Opal was a villager to scramble our suspicions. 

Of the two, I reckon that the Dustbringer is a villager, because the Elims would more likely leave Opal alive so that we could waste a lynch on it.

Depending on how many Elims there are, suspected 4-6, there is most likely one or two Elim(s) among the more active players, and the rest are in varying states of activity. Given the amount of strongly active players we actually have, there should be more Elims among the fringe-actives, as previously noted. Unfortunately, its hard to get a target on fringe-actives based on how many posts they make, and the one active Elim will be influencing the vote through analysis.

I thought you were wondering about if Opal was the Dustbringer kill or not, but I guess this was about if the Dustbringer is village or not. The mafia having two kills sounds pretty unbalanced...

4 hours ago, Turquoise Gorilla said:

To try and keep tabs on lurkers, here's a list of players I feel have faded into the background this Cycle - Azure Mouse, Emerald Falcon, Indigo Weasel, Muave Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat, and Taupe Gecko. Falcon might not quite count as a lurker, since they're a pinch hitter, but I think they've had time to look things over enough to give us some surface thoughts at least. If someone on this list explained that they'd be busy this Turn, my apologies.

Apologies - I didn't say I was going to be busy, but it has been so far. I've had a read through of the thread to see what people are talking about, but I need to have another reread to pay more attention to suspicions. I had planned putting a vote on Opal because I didn't like their bandwagon vote. Can't exactly do that anymore. Gonna poke @Taupe Gecko again, but I know it's been busy, but it's been closer to 2 days since your last post. I

Won't be able to do the reread just yet though. I aim to get that done in a little while (but before end of cycle - got some more pressing matters to attend to first).

Edited January 21, 2018 by Azure Mouse

[Mint Heron]

 

On 19/01/2018 at 4:27 PM, Onyx Flamingo said:

DO we know how many elims there are or is that info we dont know? Dang this is not good.

Usually the evil team is 1/5 or the square root of the total number of players. 30/5 is 6 and 30^(1/2) is 5.477, so we should have between five or six Sympathisers.

On 19/01/2018 at 4:35 PM, Ivory Dragonfly said:

We typically only lynch actives, as they’re easier to build cases against, but the real Elims are hiding somewhere on the “activity fringe.” Like, 6-12 posts. Enough to contribute without reprimand, but not enough to give us the ability to solidly analyze them. Maybe one of them is a frequent contributor, but the rest are hiding. 

That's a bad assumption to make, Dragonfly >>

First, evil players can have any number of activity levels. I've seen evil players who were almost completely inactive and evil players who were among the chattiest in the game. In a normal game, if an evil player who normally speaks a lot wanted to remain undetected, the first thing to do would be to maintain a similar level of activity, because if their activity level was to suddenly drop it would be obvious as hell, and while they're in the spotlight, they may as well exploit it.

Which brings me to my second point. There are benefits to being a chatty evil player. Sometimes, because of they are so active, evil players are placed above suspicion because villagers think, whyever would an evil player put in so much effort to help the village? From there they can misdirect the village and redirect them to fellow villagers while keeping the lynch away from their teammates. It's happened before in games I was in >> For an active evil player to provide us with tons of information after they are dead, they have to die first, and the only way that can happen is through the lynch or a Coinshot kill. (I suppose the evil team could kill one of their own, but it's not something we can rely on :P) That means that people have to see beyond the initial smokescreen of activity and think the active person is suspicious.

A village Skybreaker could scan them, maybe. That also is not something we can rely on, since team evil might choose to constantly smoke them (it looks bad but Smoking has been used offensively before), or the village might not have a Skybreaker, or the Skybreaker might be dead. The gist is that there are potential rewards for a Sympathiser to be active this game.

Note: There are many ways the Sympathisers can play this. I'm just bringing up a possibility. But I just brought this up because I'd like to mention that in this game, if we assume the Sympathisers are all or mostly lurking, it can come back and bite us all in the collective chull.

[Onyx Flamingo]

Sorry I was crazy busy today and was writing this up when I had to make dinner and just got back to it now sorry for the slow response @Amber Vulture

5 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

I don’t think this is a valid accusation. When Swan was lynched, I publicly acknowledged that I had been suspicious of Swan and that had I been there when the lynch train developed, I would likely have voted for him. It’s either a mistake or a disingenuous falsehood to say I wouldn’t make my suspicions public

I acknowledge you did make your suspicions known after the lynch... but that would be like if swan was an elim hey guys I knew he was an elim I totally would have voted for him. I more mean why didn't you raise your suspicions before the lynch like you did in the PM. Without you acknowledging it beforehand it feels like you were trying to nudge a large group of people a certain way and then after the mistake is made you will own it but not with a vote.

You do make other good points though I will give you that

5 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

I’d encourage you to vote on the person you said you “honestly really did suspect a lot”, namely Tuatara. Expressing heavy suspicion of someone and then voting for someone else noncommittally reads as rather suspicious, given that it’s a good way to distance yourself while still trying to save the lynchee from the lynch. You say you “hate” lynching me, and I’m rather reluctant to be lynched myself, so why not vote for your primary suspicion instead?  

Don't misunderstand me I did vote for my primary suspect Tuatara was my second choice. There is the added fact That I knew that by placing my vote this way I would get some feedback from Ivory, Which I have, and @Oxblood Beagle which I'm hoping he will still give me his read on you since PM's are down now. The important thing I am trying to avoid is a lack of discussion if we just willy nilly pick a person and no disagreement or discussion is had then we will lose and the elims will kill us all. To do that I think we need to ALL speak up about our primary suspicion, why they are our primary suspicion, and then consolidate the votes the second day to select the most likely choice. because there is such a large group of people if we don't do this then it will be easy to be misdirected to a villager.

4 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

Jai, your method of swinging the lynch was unnecessarily sneaky and thus, suspicious. Why did you choose to PM players and ask them to swing a lynch? Why not do it in-thread, where everybody could see your reasoning?

I can answer this one, it was because I was about to die, we were suspecting of Axolatl but axolatl made a concerning post that made it so we didnt feel good about lynching him at that time for RL reasons. We also didnt want to bring it up in thread and say possibly offend Axolatl but with only less than an hour left before the lynch we had to move fast

4 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Note: There are many ways the Sympathisers can play this. I'm just bringing up a possibility. But I just brought this up because I'd like to mention that in this game, if we assume the Sympathisers are all or mostly lurking, it can come back and bite us all in the collective chull.

Kharsis makes a valid point and frankly its my worst nightmare that somehow beagle is an elim.... cause if he is he has convinced me good.

[Taupe Gecko]

Alright! Took a while, but I trust you can understand that, yes?

Let us take a look at everything.

For the sake of convenience... And also because most people probably do it the opposite way, and a different angle may be of value... I'm going to start my analysis working backwards, starting with whatever is most recent.

Day 3

Flamingo- Affirms suspicions on Vulture. Backs this up with plausible reasoning. Is also afraid that people will "willy nilly pick a person and no disagreement or discussion." I admit I don't see how this is related, and cannot really see this scenario as being a likely threat right now. Doesn't really have much to do with alignment, though.

Heron- Raises some good points about activity. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather not lynch an active player if we can help it, but we should also be pretty careful about restricting our vision to only certain groups of players. However, since Heron's entire point is that they believe an elim has incentive to appear helpful, we can't really call this alignment indicative.

Mouse- Mentioned me. Hi. Also responded to a post about the dustbringer maybe being evil. While I would expect some interesting role distributions on an anniversary game, that would be very hard to balance. More on that later.

Heron- Makes an RP post. Is carrying on the glorious tradition of white text.

Meerkat- Overviews the lynch, which I found rather helpful. Is starting to suspect Beagle. I will speak more about Beagle when I have read their recent posts.

Vulture- Raises an interesting point about flamingo. Apparently flamingo accused Vulture of inactivity, and was online and ingored Vulture's later post claiming he was in fact active. I would brush this off, and say that flamingo probably just didn't have the time to make a proper post... But just recently flamingo made a quite comprehensive post and is still pointedly ignoring Vulture. This doesn't necessarily mean flamingo is an elim, but it does look a kinda sus.

Heron- Votes on Beagle. Cites the Swan lynch. I will admit that I think the mixed usage of RP-names and account names hinders clarity. I still need to investigate Beagle before I can agree or disagree with this course of action.

Dragonfly- More talking about Beagle. You know, I'm slightly surprised that the vast majority of discussion and suspicion seems to be directed at somebody who isn't actually leading in votes. Still, I withhold my judgement until I can actually read Beagle's posts and not what other people have to say about Beagle.

Gorilla- Is a pinch hitter. Says they would rather lynch Vulture than Tautara... But then doesn't make any move to vote in that way. I get that you don't really like either candidate that well, but is there a reason you aren't going to use your vote to cause the result you said you would prefer? I am kind of wary of this sort of behavior.

Vulture- Is basically requesting not to be lynched. Very much NAI.

Dragonfly- Is commenting on a list of reads by Albatross that I want to go read now. Agrees on many counts with Albatross, but ultimately wants to stick with their vote on Tuatara. Cites previously given reasoning for this, so I will evaluate that when I get to reading it.

Scorpion- Also agreeing with Albatross. I guess Albatross is a very agreeable sort.

Albatross- Comments on a lot of players. Notably defends Beagle and Flamingo. Votes on Vulture despite apparently having two other suspicions they feel more strongly about, though I think I can understand this because neither of the other two had any votes on them. Also, I want to point out that mathematically the randomized odds at hitting an elim start out at about 20%, so you probably shouldn't refer to a neutral read as "50/50".

Heron- I agree that we can't really trust that a skybreaker has successfully scanned Beagle last cycle. It is a possibility, and the possibility is reassuring, but there are way too many ways that could have gone wrong for us to rely on a skybreaker.

Flamingo- Is suspicious of Rhino but it looks like that's because Rhino voted on them last cycle?

Elephant- Paints the Tuatara lynch as basically a policy lynch, which isn't the impression I was getting from other players. Also is suspicious of Axolotl, because Axolotl said they thought the Tuatara lynch felt off. I'll be honest, I completely disagree with the notion that protesting a lynch that feels off is to be discouraged (Yes, you might say I have ulterior motives; I will be the first person to point out that Axolotl also defended me at some point... But I kind of reckon that an eliminator wouldn't be killing time on the first cycle by cracking my code, which is what Axolotl did ). However, I also don't think the elim mindset would be as quick to defend the mighty groupthink, so I conclude that Elephant is quite probably a villager.

Flamingo- Asks if a skybreaker scanned Beagle. Possibly an innocent question. Possibly an indirect way to defend Beagle, if they happen to be teammates.

Axolotl- Already talked about this in Elephant's post.

Beagle- RPs the theft of curry. I approve, because a good curry is definitely worthy of theft.

Scorpion- Totally bandwagons Tuatara, but is aware that this is what they are doing and is apologetic about it. I am withholding my judgement on Tuatara, but... Scorpion seems pretty honest about their motives, at least, which gives me a village lean.

Flamingo- I quite enjoyed the RP-analysis hybrid. I've already said I disagree with the case against Vulture.

Dragonfly- Is defending Beagle so completely that I do not think they could possibly be elim teammates together, because it would be too brazen a defense for an elim teammate.

Beagle- At last, a post from Beagle (you'd think I would have hit one of their posts earlier given that Beagle is so active, but I suppose timezones are a thing), who seems to be the center of so much discussion. However they are tired and aren't saying too much, so I'll have to keep digging.

Toucan- Ends up accusing Tuatara, and gives a good explanation for why. Honestly, I'm pretty sure a lot of players have tried saying "I won't vote unless I find a good lynch" at some point or other. I know I have. Most of the time the people trying this are villagers. I'm pretty sure this is a mistake you only make once, because I've seen very few things that draw votes as quickly as this sentiment.

Vulture- Votes on Tuatara for casting a retaliation vote against Beagle. While I agree that Tuatara's vote probably was a retaliation vote, I'm not so convinced that this makes Tuatara an elim.

Kangaroo- Makes some good points... Also seems to have totally forgotten about how he suspected me. Also is now refusing to vote, which is odd. Could probably do with a bit more scrutiny, but he does not typically say things that are very telling.

Beagle- Partially accusing Tuatara, partially defending self. Is spending slightly more time on the self-defense part than I would have expected, but maybe I'm reading into it a little bit.

Tuatara- Casts a vote on Beagle. I do not think lynching Beagle just for information is a good idea, and I do think that it is inconsistant with earlier saying you would not vote unless a really strong reason came up. But I also do not think this is necessarily an eliminator thing to do, and kind of agree with what others have said: that this lynch feels too easy.

Ahhhh storms this is taking too long. I need some proper sleep and it's past 2am.

Concluding Thoughts

I'll take a moment to acknowledge last cycle's Swan lynch. In cycle 1 I suspected Swan and would have been happy to lynch them, but ironically I wasn't around during cycle 2 to have any input. I really can't say if I would have changed my mind or not with new evidence, but there's probably some interesting things to read into from that cycle.

I will also note the loss of edgedancers. It's almost uncanny how precisely they were all eliminated.

I will also note that this is an AG and we should expect some kind of unusual role distribution.

Lynch discussion for this cycle:

I don't really suspect Tuatara. They've voiced some unpopular ideas, but I do not think that reflects on alignment.

I also don't really suspect Vulture. I'm not sure I really get the reason behind this lynch.

As for Beagle... I think Beagle is a legitimate suspect, but I would not advocate lynching somebody this active if we have an alternative. Namely, I'd much prefer to lynch somebody I think would be Beagle's accomplice, in the attempt to implicate Beagle.

I realize I am not backing any of the existing lynches, but I really don't agree with any of them.

I believe Flamingo is the best lynch. In my opinion, they would probably be Beagle's teammate if Beagle were an elim. What's more, they are exhibiting suspicious behavior of their own, namely the whole Vulture thing which I still don't really get. I wish I felt more confident about this... But I still believe it is the best option before us.

I definitely need sleep now. I apologize if any of this was badly worded, because I'm tired. Goodnight.

[Sunburst Toucan]

Vanna put the last touches to the charcoal drawing of a particularly large winged Cremlin. She’d noticed the critter sitting on a nearby windowsill observing the proceedings and on an impulse had started drawing it.

“Look.” She turned her sketchbook towards the creature. “That’s you.” The critters head turned towards the drawing for a couple of seconds, and then swivelled back towards the town square. It moved its front-legs in a way that would have looked like a shrug if the creature had been human.

Vanna shook her head and stored away her sketchbook and took out her notebook gain. Next on her list was Albatross.

Magenta Albatross

Spoiler

I noticed some off behavior from them during D1, where them mentioning being afraid of a sudden bandwagon against swan seemed suspicious. Thing is, Swan was not one of the murderers, so in hindsight that comment isn't as suspicious as it used to look.

Albatross' has been doing some decent research since then. I don't agree on his opinion of me, as he'd likely reach the same conclusion when looking at those I wrote up as not having said enough to judge. Albatross just skipped most of those. He also gives activity as the only reason for judging beagle as village, which is odd, but until we're certain about beagle there's no good way to judge that comment.

Overall Albatross seems like he sees activity and participation as a sign of innocence, which I disagree with. However, a murderer would probably be looking for ways to frame innocent people and would be less likely to judge them favorably. On the other hand, if the murderer was trying to be 'honest' with his accusation he would have a harder time judging innocents unfairly if they didn't actually give him something to base suspicion on, meaning that he'd have lots of village reads.

Overall though, I don't think Albatross is a murderer. My main point of suspicion has been debunked by Elyle's death.

Mauve Crocodile

Spoiler

Crocodile hasn't really added much of substance until the second night, after Elyle had died. He did mention being really confused in the run-up to that, though.

His one major contribution tot he discussion was made last night, discussing the alignments of Lion and Beagle. He mentions that he thinks both of them are villagers, but doesn't explain where that feeling comes from. Since we know that Lion was innocent I think Crocodile might be innocent too, because the murderers would probably have liked to use Lion as a distraction today. That is assuming that the dustbringer is not actually part of the murderers himself.

Overall, I think Crocodile might be innocent, but if beagle proves to be a murderer I will need to take another look at him, as his defense of Lion could just have been to give his defense of beagle more legitimacy.

Mint Heron

Spoiler

Another case of sudden personality change disorder.

A lot of his posts after the personality change focused on combating the idea that all the murderers where just hiding and lying low. I agree with him on this, and would probably have spoken up about it if I'd realized this line of thought was going around. However, this doesn't really prove anything beyond the fact that he's paying attention to what is being said, as there are a number for reasons for both murderers and innocents to point this out.

His vote on Jai seems to be better supported than the vote by Tuatara, but until we know more about Tuatara and beagle there isn't much that can be concluded about that vote as well.

I can't make a solid conclusion about Heron yet. If he shares some thoughts about the various players then reading him might become easier.

Now, there was the issue of the vote. A lot of people had expressed their suspicion of Tuatara by now, but there where a number of people going after Vulture as well. Vanna considered the matter for a moment. She was definitely somewhat distrustful of Amber, but she didn't suspect her more than Tuatara. Nor had Tuatara said anything that changed her opinion of his actions. "So, I suppose Tuatara it is."

Edited January 21, 2018 by Sunburst Toucan

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Wow, Taupe Gecko. I’m not quoting that, as it’s way too long, but I will address some of your main points. And sorry, I’m skipping your summary and commentary on all the recent posts. 

If you didn’t catch that the Swan lynch was set up in PM, than it was. I actually haven’t really said much about it, namely since I couldn’t be on the Shard when it was happening, but basically Beagle sent a PM after a comment which Axolotl, our previous suspect, made after which the others felt very uncomfortable lynching him. He argued that Swan was the highest chance of being an elim, and so the 4 people active in the chat + bandwagon votes from Lion and Weasel, I think, moved the lynch onto Swan. Interestingly, there are only 5 votes in the GM vote count, suggesting the tampering of a Bondsmith with the vote. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

Precision of Edgedancer loss can possibly be attributed to a (looking increasingly likely now) Elim Skybreaker who scanned the second Edgedancer Night 1 out of sheer luck, and then killed him night 2 to stop Beagle’s PM chains (or to clear him from suspicion). However, I’d argue that it was more just poor luck on our part. 

Unusual role distribution might lead us to the conclusion that our Elim ratio is off due to them having powerful roles. Maybe they even have the Dustbringer, and just have a really small team to compensate. I find that unlikely, though. Two kills a night + the relative difficulty of finding them in such a large crowd would make them incredibly powerful. However, I wouldn’t discount them having a role like Windrunner to allow them to use WGGs, a Skybreaker, and possibly an Elsecaller or two. I think we’re forgetting about Windrunners, and while they can be legitimate protection roles, they can also be drivers of WGGs. 

If Beagle has an accomplice, it’s definitely me, so I don’t see why you’re targeting Flamingo. I too had suspicions of them, but that was mainly due to their previous quietness, and now they’ve stepped up and begun to try to help the village. Also, they role-claimed in my personal PM, and while they may be lying, I doubt it. Especially since they apparently told Beagle as well, so I see that as a sign of trust, not something an elim would do. Unfortunately, with PMs down, I can’t confirm with Beagle, but if Beagle could acknowledge in thread that they know Flamingo’s role, that would be great.

Agreed the Tuatara lynch feels too easy, but none of the other candidates are better choices, so I will stay the course. 

[Sage Kangaroo]

2 hours ago, Taupe Gecko said:

Kangaroo- Makes some good points... Also seems to have totally forgotten about how he suspected me. Also is now refusing to vote, which is odd. Could probably do with a bit more scrutiny, but he does not typically say things that are very telling.

Actually I just decided that you were annoying, not an Elim.  I re-read some of your posts, and decided that you weren't active enough to form a read on, and the posts I read just seemed like you had a jarring playstyle, not an Elim one.  Of course, that could be what you were going for, but that gets to far into IKYK for me to make a decision about it.

2 hours ago, Taupe Gecko said:

I believe Flamingo is the best lynch. In my opinion, they would probably be Beagle's teammate if Beagle were an elim. What's more, they are exhibiting suspicious behavior of their own, namely the whole Vulture thing which I still don't really get. I wish I felt more confident about this... But I still believe it is the best option before us.

Yeah this... This doesn't make sense at all.  It really would be Ivory, I think.  As they themselves said.  That really doesn't seem like an Elim thing to do, at all, though.  Ever.  Risk ≠ to reward for saying that, even going into IKYK territory.  Plus I've got a really solid Village Read on Ivory.  Which says good things about Beagle, by comparison, although new players have a higher tendency of being duped by older players who are active in PMs...  I would know.  

Actually, now that I think about it, Flamingo could be a Beagle accomplice?  Maybe kinda sorta?  Like, first cycle or so he went after Beagle, but actually was just an Elim trying to distance himself, but then once Beagle started looking really Village, then Flamingo rejoined him?  Or if Beagle really is village, Flamingo is just an Elim trying to jump on the Village Bandwagon with him.

Yeah, I could maybe see a Flamingo lynch, just for the information it would give us.  And they definitely did some suspicious stuff of their own.  And it honestly makes way more sense than the Tuatara lynch, ATP.

Also, for all the vote counts that keep missing this, I retracted my vote on Beagle a while ago.

Edited January 21, 2018 by Sage Kangaroo
wording

[Cream Tuatara]

I’ll be switching my vote from Beagle to Flamingo.

[Azure Mouse]

@Taupe Gecko Hey! Thanks for your post, and sorry for bugging you for it. :{D

I double checked the vote tally, because why not:

Vulture(3): Penguin, Flamingo, Albatross
Beagle(1): Heron
Ostrich(1): Zebra
Tuatara(5): Beagle, Vulture, Scorpion, Elephant, Toucan
Flamingo(3): Gecko, Kangaroo, Tuatara

I think that's correct, but I didn't double check. Anyways, I'm now going to try reread stuff, and get some stuff done. Watch this space...

 

[Quartz Zebra]

6 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

I can answer this one, it was because I was about to die, we were suspecting of Axolatl but axolatl made a concerning post that made it so we didnt feel good about lynching him at that time for RL reasons. We also didnt want to bring it up in thread and say possibly offend Axolatl but with only less than an hour left before the lynch we had to move fast

Fuchsia Ostrich (Note: Ostrich, I'd still like to hear more from you - this isn't me letting you off the hook.)

Onyx Flamingo

This line feels really off to me. Not in what Flamingo actually said, but in the way they say it. So far, we'd been lead to understand that Beagle had contacted a number of players in defense of Flamingo, and they subsequently changed their votes to Axolotl, then swapped to Swan. But... this doesn't sound like that. The way 'we' makes it sound like an organised coalition that is able to have conversations as a group, and that's very different to my understanding of what supposedly happened in PM's last cycle. Also, it feels like it's assumed that every player in this group is on the same side, and I think you can only really be sure of that fact as an Eliminator.

(Note: Beagle has more votes on them currently, but he's also a major proponent of the conversation, so I'm more hesitant to lynch him - I'd rather lynch Onyx. If people don't follow me on the Onyx lynch, I'll swap my vote to Beagle, but I'd rather not have to.)

*continues reading*

Hmmm... I seem to have been late to the party. There are 3 votes on Flamingo already. I should really catch up before I start typing. That said, I'd appreciate @Cream Tuatara to explain why they're voting on Flamingo - we're much more likely to be able to catch Eliminators if they elaborate on what they say, like we've (hopefully) done with Flamingo.