[OB] Shin Conqueror?

[Lightspine]

Hi guys. Sorry if this topic doesn't seem sufficiently important, but, while reading Dalinar's feast flashback, I noticed an odd detail. Gavilar mentions previous empires that stretched too far, leading to their collapse (Genghis Khan style), and he throws in the name "Shubreth-son-Mashamalan". This appears to be a Shin name, due to the "-son-" (unless you guys know of other cultures in Roshar that use that?). It seems rather odd to me that the Shin, who have an extremely non-violent attitude, would produce an empire. Could this be what led to the formation of their current society? That seems unlikely, since Stone Shamanism and the Shin possession of honorblades indicates that their beliefs are very old and contain a good deal of truth. Perhaps Shubreth was a truthless who was used by somebody else to conquer? My current assumption is that this empire was formed after the Heirocracy, but I could be totally wrong.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Lightspine

[Calderis he/him]

8 minutes ago, Lightspine said:

My current assumption is that this empire was formed after the Heirocracy, but I could be totally wrong.

As to the rest of it, I don't know enough to comment, but considering the state of knowledge recorded, I think it's fairly safe to assume any topic that is well know is most likely post hierocracy. 

[The One Who Connects he/him]

1 minute ago, Lightspine said:

Could this be what led to the formation of their current society?

It wouldn't surprise me if it was. Life under a ruthless conqueror can easily make people want peace.

1 minute ago, Lightspine said:

That seems unlikely, since Stone Shamanism and the Shin possession of Honorblades, as well as knowledge of the "ancient of stones" (Talenel) cracking, indicates that their beliefs are very old and contain a good deal of truth.

Possession of the Honorblades for all those millennia doesn't mean that they used them during all of that time. That could be a recent change, perhaps to quell another conqueror like Shubreth. We don't know anywhere near enough about Stone Shamanism yet for me to comment, which is annoying.

The Ancient of Stones was from Taravangian actually, not the Shin. Twas in the Diagram.

8 minutes ago, Lightspine said:

Perhaps Shubreth was a Truthless who was used by somebody else to conquer?

That would be an interesting turn of events, but I don't think they would chance something like that happening again. Szeth has proven more than capable of capsizing governments, and the only thing really stopping him from doing that to the Shin was because Taravangian didn't tell him to. Even if they were incompetent, that seems like too big of a risk for the Shamanate to take.

However, if Shubreth took over some other nation... I think Szeth would've mentioned if Truthless had a rule against attacking Shinovar, so maybe, maybe not.

---

"Out There" Idea: Shubreth was actually a rogue Shin, or a Truthless controlled by one of the Shamanate(as an experiment/for expanding influence?).

[Lightspine]

13 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

The Ancient of Stones was from Taravangian actually, not the Shin. Twas in the Diagram.

Yeah, I realized that mistake fairly quickly. It's been changed. Thanks for pointing it out though.

13 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

That would be an interesting turn of events, but I don't think they would chance something like that happening again. Szeth has proven more than capable of capsizing governments, and the only thing really stopping him from doing that to the Shin was because Taravangian didn't tell him to. Even if they were incompetent, that seems like too big of a risk for the Shamanate to take.

However, if Shubreth took over some other nation... I think Szeth would've mentioned if Truthless had a rule against attacking Shinovar, so maybe, maybe not.

---

"Out There" Idea: Shubreth was actually a rogue Shin, or a Truthless controlled by one of the Shamanate(as an experiment/for expanding influence?).

Nice thoughts! I was also considering that he was a rogue, perhaps having stolen an honorblade. However, all 10 blades are accounted for (Mr. T mentions the Shin have 7, Szeth had Jezrien's, Nin/Nalan has his own, and Talenel had his). Perhaps it is possible that they recovered the blade after Shubreth died, and that contributed to the collapse of his empire? I feel I'm speculating too far on too little information, however.

[The One Who Connects he/him]

51 minutes ago, Lightspine said:

I feel I'm speculating too far on too little information, however.

You'll fit right in.

[Calderis he/him]

54 minutes ago, Lightspine said:

I feel I'm speculating too far on too little information, however.

3 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

You'll fit right in.

Admitting we have a problem is the first step towards making it a lifestyle. 

[+Ravioli]

If there was a Shin conqueror, I wonder if he utilized the Honorblades...

[The One Who Connects he/him]

Just now, Ravi said:

If there was a Shin conqueror, I wonder if he utilized the Honorblades...

This is definitely a question that needs an answer, but until then, we can speculate on what that would mean for the story.

---

Unless it was pre-Recreance, I think overtly using Honorblades is highly unlikely, because legend of that would absolutely get out, and that's a big no-no. Using them for assassinations and stuff like Szeth does, maybe. Out in the open, no.

Regardless of time period, this Shubreth chap could have been the first to use the Honorblades, which could be why the Shamanate are so keen on recovering them. A rogue Surgebinder could wreak all kinds of havoc. Actually, if he were the first, maybe he was the one to learn of the power they grant, leading the Shamanate to training with them instead of merely guarding them... So many possibilities.

[+Extesian he/him]

I really like that you noticed this (I didn't) and I think that's a likely thing. 

On time period, I have no issue with it being pre-Recreance. There's no indication it was well known. This was Gavilar, the dude who found out about seriously obscure ancient lore, including the means by which Parshmen were created. He could be talking about shortly after the Oathpact was broken. I always expected the Shin to be a serious problem after those blades were left there and it would be surprising if, for 4000 years, they've managed to avoid any incidents of abuse. 

Something to add to my tentative head canon.

[Calderis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Extesian said:

I really like that you noticed this (I didn't) and I think that's a likely thing. 

On time period, I have no issue with it being pre-Recreance. There's no indication it was well known. This was Gavilar, the dude who found out about seriously obscure ancient lore, including the means by which Parshmen were created. He could be talking about shortly after the Oathpact was broken. I always expected the Shin to be a serious problem after those blades were left there and it would be surprising if, for 4000 years, they've managed to avoid any incidents of abuse. 

Something to add to my tentative head canon.

True. I'm honestly very very curious about Gavilar's extensive knowledge. Jasnah isn't exactly incompetent, and his historical knowledge vastly surpasses hers in some areas. 

[Lightspine]

13 hours ago, Extesian said:

I really like that you noticed this (I didn't) and I think that's a likely thing. 

On time period, I have no issue with it being pre-Recreance. There's no indication it was well known. This was Gavilar, the dude who found out about seriously obscure ancient lore, including the means by which Parshmen were created. He could be talking about shortly after the Oathpact was broken. I always expected the Shin to be a serious problem after those blades were left there and it would be surprising if, for 4000 years, they've managed to avoid any incidents of abuse. 

Something to add to my tentative head canon.

I agree that Gavilar could easily have knowledge of such events, but I am inclined to doubt that he would mention something so obscure in front of Sadeas, Dalinar, Ialai, and Navani. I feel like his intention during that passage was to provide well-known examples of empires that had stretched too far. That being said, I could be totally wrong and Gavilar maybe wasn't thinking through everything he was saying. 

[The One Who Connects he/him]

3 hours ago, Lightspine said:

I agree that Gavilar could easily have knowledge of such events, but I am inclined to doubt that he would mention something so obscure in front of Sadeas, Dalinar, Ialai, and Navani. I feel like his intention during that passage was to provide well-known examples of empires that had stretched too far.

I'd have to actually look at the scene itself, but depending on context, the well-known/obscure argument might go out the window.

• If he gave a good number of examples, he may have included an obscure one by accident even if he didn't mean to.
• If he's really into the conversation, a slip of the tongue about something he subconsciously expects the others to know(for some reason) can happen.
• He might not expect any of them to know too much about the subject in question, meaning half the names would be obscure to them.
• Shubreth may be such a perfect example of his point that the obscurity is irrelevant
• Gavilar may not care what they think(either b/c heat of the moment, knowledge is power, his secret society aims taking precedence, etc..)

There are so many variables to be considered. Here's the specific paragraph, for those who are interested:

Spoiler

Spoiler

“No, his greed,” Gavilar said quietly. “What’s the point of conquering if you’re not going to ever just sit back and enjoy it? If you’re never going to be satisfied? Shubreth-son-Mashamalan, Sunmaker, even the Hierocracy. They all stretched further and further until they collapse. In all the history of mankind, has any conqueror decided they’d had enough? Has any man just said, you know, this is good, this is what I wanted, then gone home?”

[WhiteLeeopard she/her]

21 hours ago, Lightspine said:

Hi guys. Sorry if this topic doesn't seem sufficiently important, but, while reading Dalinar's feast flashback, I noticed an odd detail. 

 There is absolutely nothing that is unimportant enough to not be discussed in this forum if it came from the books.

3 hours ago, Lightspine said:

I agree that Gavilar could easily have knowledge of such events, but I am inclined to doubt that he would mention something so obscure in front of Sadeas, Dalinar, Ialai, and Navani. I feel like his intention during that passage was to provide well-known examples of empires that had stretched too far. That being said, I could be totally wrong and Gavilar maybe wasn't thinking through everything he was saying. 

Keep in mind that those four were his closest and most trusted confidantes and advisors...we think, lets forgot about Amaram and Taravangian for now. Gavilar would likely think nothing of letting out some obscure examples, as even if they thought it odd they would let it go, it isn't as if he would let out a weakness to enemies. 

The idea of a Shin that went "dark" with one or more Honorblades sounds appealing, after all it seems very very unlikely there would be an unchanging society for 4000 years. The closest example we have in our world is Egypt, which lasted over 3000 years, but even they changed over a few times so much they were unrecognizable. 

[The One Who Connects he/him]

34 minutes ago, WhiteLeeopard said:

it seems very very unlikely there would be an unchanging society for 4000 years.

While I agree that it is unlikely, a peaceful society can stay that way for a long while. But they have to be able to stay that way. A simple question: Why hasn't Shinovar been invaded? The relative safety of "we won't be invaded" can contribute to keeping society peaceful.

[Calderis he/him]

3 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

While I agree that it is unlikely, a peaceful society can stay that way for a long while. But they have to be able to stay that way. A simple question: Why hasn't Shinovar been invaded? The relative safety of "we won't be invaded" can contribute to keeping society peaceful.

I first wanted to make an argument of Shinovar being seen as a place with little value, because it seems so alien. 

I can't even entertain that idea for more than a few seconds though. 

Horses, "chickens," strawberries, no significant highstorms. There has to be some historical precedent that attacking Shinovar is a bad idea. It's just too tempting a target otherwise. Complete control over multiple coveted commercial markets, and freedom from the oppression of the storms? I guarantee it has been attempted. 

[The One Who Connects he/him]

14 minutes ago, Calderis said:

There has to be some historical precedent that attacking Shinovar is a bad idea.

Indeed there does. And I cannot say for sure what it could be, but I have a few guesses.

The most apparent thing is the sheer mass of mountain range separating Shinovar from the rest of Roshar. A mountain range able to break the rage of a Highstorm would be a strong deterrent. However, I imagine that Rysn and Vstim were able to make the trek without too much trouble, as I do not believe there was any mention of it in Rysn's perspective. Either way, I wouldn't want to be caught in the high mountains during a Highstorm, and the reinforcements/supply convoy don't have the luxury of waiting.

The next biggest thing is that while the Shin may despise warriors, they have an abundance of them bound via Oathstones. A loyal "army" of Shin has several big advantages over whatever force can be brought to bear against them. The Shin will be well rested, while the invaders will not. The Shin have more space to maneuver than a force trickling out of the mountain pass. The invading force can't come in all at once on account of said mountain passes. Training is good, but it wont beat everything.

The Shin have horses, and as the Mongol Horde has demonstrated in the past, cavalry can be a big deal. How much skill the Shin actually have is up for debate, but is should be considered by the invaders. The people who raise and sell all the horses in the world should be skilled riders, and only a fool overlooks that possibility.

[Calderis he/him]

13 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

Indeed there does. And I cannot say for sure what it could be, but I have a few guesses.

The most apparent thing is the sheer mass of mountain range separating Shinovar from the rest of Roshar. A mountain range able to break the rage of a Highstorm would be a strong deterrent. However, I imagine that Rysn and Vstim were able to make the trek without too much trouble, as I do not believe there was any mention of it in Rysn's perspective. Either way, I wouldn't want to be caught in the high mountains during a Highstorm, and the reinforcements/supply convoy don't have the luxury of waiting.

The next biggest thing is that while the Shin may despise warriors, they have an abundance of them bound via Oathstones. A loyal "army" of Shin has several big advantages over whatever force can be brought to bear against them. The Shin will be well rested, while the invaders will not. The Shin have more space to maneuver than a force trickling out of the mountain pass. The invading force can't come in all at once on account of said mountain passes. Training is good, but it wont beat everything.

The Shin have horses, and as the Mongol Horde has demonstrated in the past, cavalry can be a big deal. How much skill the Shin actually have is up for debate, but is should be considered by the invaders. The people who raise and sell all the horses in the world should be skilled riders, and only a fool overlooks that possibility.

I fully agree with all of your points. 

Napoleon and Hitler both show that reason loses out to greed fairly often though. 

The Shin have a natural bottleneck, just like the Spartans famously used against Persia, without the limited numbers. Even without the skills of a dedicated warrior society, their terrain advantage mixed with cavalry support to hit any where their lines are breached make for a pretty favorable odds.

Despite that, people had to have tried and failed. Greed is a pretty powerful motivator. 

[+Extesian he/him]

Basically I think Shin doesn't get invaded for the obvious reason that they have a handy collection of Honorblades. I think their religion makes it likely that they have an official, communicated non- aggression policy. And what's the last place in the world you invade? One that isn't expansionist, is highly defensible and can utterly destroy you if you try to invade them. (Imagine Switzerland as the only nation with nuclear weapons). The Shin walk softly and carry a big storming stick.

But I think it makes a lot of sense that Shinovar is the way it is now (enormous potential power but non-expansionist) and other nations don't even imagine invading precisely because there was a previous Shin warlord who showed other nations what happens if you fight a nation with Honorblades. I picture Shinovar getting invaded for the Honorblades and the leader at the time using it as an excuse  for a Roshar-wide counter-attack.

[Unhinged he/him]

One possibility based on the rough truthless idea is that Shubreth was given an honorblae and thrown out into the world like Szeth. However unlike Szeth he decided screw it i'll cease to exist when I die and defied the stone shamans. Using his honorblade he carved out a massive kingdom thereby securing his legacy and ensuring that even if his soul disappeared upon death his legacy would endure. 

[cometaryorbit]

I kind of doubt wide-scale counterattacks with Honorblades would work out for them. Seven Honorblades aren't enough to matter on the scale of a supercontinent-wide war. They could assassinate leaders like Szeth does, but that's as likely to make your enemies more determined to kill you (eg Vengeance Pact) as to win a war for you.

It's like in the Mistborn series where it's repeatedly pointed out that one person with powers can't realistically fight an army.

It would make a lot of sense if the Shin disdain for warfare is historically recent though. I can't see how that setup could last long, given that the other classes aren't even allowed to touch weapons, what keeps the disdained warrior class from just taking over by force? Nobody else could even try to fight them...

[Agent34]

49 minutes ago, cometaryorbit said:

It would make a lot of sense if the Shin disdain for warfare is historically recent though. I can't see how that setup could last long, given that the other classes aren't even allowed to touch weapons, what keeps the disdained warrior class from just taking over by force? Nobody else could even try to fight them...

Their obedience presumably. A rebellion tends to start only if those involved feel the drive to rebel.

[cometaryorbit]

3 minutes ago, Agent34 said:

Their obedience presumably. A rebellion tends to start only if those involved feel the drive to rebel.

Well, yes, but what I mean is, how is that obedience maintained, especially over historically long periods of time? For the warrior class, "these people who are treating us like dirt can't touch weapons, and wouldn't know the first thing about fighting even if they were willing to break the taboo - it would be really easy to take over"  is a really obvious thought.

Surely the Shin are like all other humans - they've got to have people who don't just accept what they're told.

It seems terribly unstable -  in the sense that a very small rebellion could quickly wreck/overturn the whole society. One small group of warriors goes rogue & has some early successes, others join them or just stand by to see what happens... pretty soon all of Shinovar is in upheaval. I can't imagine them going thousands of years without having even one rebellion, not even Dynastic Ancient Egypt or the pre-Meiji Japanese dynasties were that stable.

Or even worse, some foreign agents (either of a nation or just some opportunistic wannabe warlord) come in and stir up the warrior class, maybe assassinate a few key people in Shin society/government...

The Stone Shamans might be able to crush this sort of thing with the Honorblades, but realistically in a pre-industrial society they couldn't expect to know about it fast enough to catch it early... a communication network with spanreeds could avoid this problem, but modern fabrials seem to be comparatively recent, so that solution would still support the current Shin class structure being new (on the scale of Roshar's very long history).

Even if they didn't catch it early, they might be able to crush it by main force... but IMO it wouldn't take long for it to evolve into a situation where the old social order was irretrievably broken whichever side finally won. And using the Honorblades would be dangerous - it doesn't actually make you invulnerable, what if the rebels get hold of one?

[The One Who Connects he/him]

18 hours ago, Extesian said:

other nations don't even imagine invading precisely because there was a previous Shin warlord who showed other nations what happens if you fight a nation with Honorblades

I don't think this works, because I don't feel like anyone other than the Shamanate and Taravangian(who cheated) knew about the Honorblades being with the Shin. The Nuclear Deterrent means nothing if the enemy doesn't know about it.

8 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

For the warrior class, "these people who are treating us like dirt can't touch weapons, and wouldn't know the first thing about fighting even if they were willing to break the taboo - it would be really easy to take over"  is a really obvious thought.

Are they actually being treated like dirt? Rysn mistook them for servants, but not slaves, so I'm hesitant. As humble as the Shin are, I don't see it as unreasonable that they would treat their "servants" well, which would go a long way towards preventing a rebellion.

And since we know Szeth's Oathstone didn't have magical properties, I doubt the average warrior's Oathstone would be magical either. If they aren't bound by magic, they are either bound forcibly or bound voluntarily. If they were bound forcibly, then your logic makes a lot of sense. If they are bound voluntarily, our entire understanding goes out the window.

[Calderis he/him]

28 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

I don't think this works, because I don't feel like anyone other than the Shamanate and Taravangian(who cheated) knew about the Honorblades being with the Shin. The Nuclear Deterrent means nothing if the enemy doesn't know about it.

Are they actually being treated like dirt? Rysn mistook them for servants, but not slaves, so I'm hesitant. As humble as the Shin are, I don't see it as unreasonable that they would treat their "servants" well, which would go a long way towards preventing a rebellion.

And since we know Szeth's Oathstone didn't have magical properties, I doubt the average warrior's Oathstone would be magical either. If they aren't bound by magic, they are either bound forcibly or bound voluntarily. If they were bound forcibly, then your logic makes a lot of sense. If they are bound voluntarily, our entire understanding goes out the window.

I meant to comment about this earlier, and lost track. I agree with what you've said.

The Honorblades as a deterrent only works if the blades are known. If the blades were known, this would undermine the seemingly common belief that the Radiants powers were fabrications. They may have been known pre-Hierocrocy, but if so this is among the knowledge that was repressed. 

For a warrior revolt, you would need there to be communication and a common goal. Otherwise you'd have split loyalty with some fighting to overturn the Shamanate, and others fighting loyally to defend it. If they are serving voluntarily due to their beliefs, even with communication, the majority would still fight to put down the occasional group of malcontents. 

[+Extesian he/him]

Thanks @The One Who Connects you're quite right. It could still be possible that Honorblade wielding Shin Gabe Shin a reputation long ago and people forgot why, but it's not really deterrent now.