Yitzi2 Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 I'm still waiting to hear from @Hemalurgic_Headshot and/or @Metacognition, but if neither shows up by tomorrow morning, I'll post my analysis so that we have time to discuss it and change votes if necessary.
Hemalurgic Headshot he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 (edited) Notifications... First, an apology. I am very sorry I have not been active lately. This is just a big shame on me for not participating and everything. Unfortunately, I don't see myself doing much SE in the near future, and my activity in this game is waning. Very sorry to you all. Second, I can confirm that I was stolen from that cycle. I was a little annoyed about that, but nothing too much. That was before I really started drifting away from the game. Third, while I'm here, I'll cast my vote. Jondesu Edited June 16, 2017 by Hemalurgic_Headshot
Jondesu he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 5 hours ago, Yitzi2 said: Also, @Jondesu is it true that during night 4 you had no items to be stolen? Yeah, that's true. Easy enough for them to know that, though. 3 hours ago, cloudjumper said: Araris(1): Jondesu Jondesu(4): Flash, El, Yitzi, Cloud I'm tentative to vote Jondesu because I've always believed him to be village. However, I've also believed that Araris is a thief for quite some time as well because of his ghostliness. I don't think Araris is lying, and there's really no point in voting for someone else because they'll never get lynched today anyways, so Jondesu Araris' "ghostliness" as you put it is just Araris in every game. Regardless of his role. He just drifts through barely noticed until he drops a bombshell. Like this claim to be the Thief. 16 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said: Notifications... First, an apology. I am very sorry I have not been active lately. This is just a big shame on me for not participating and everything. Unfortunately, I don't see myself doing much SE in the near future, and my activity in this game is waning. Very sorry to you all. Second, I can confirm that I was stolen from that cycle. I was a little annoyed about that, but nothing too much. That was before I really started drifting away from the game. Third, while I'm here, I'll cast my vote. Jondesu Bear in mind that with my working theory of colloboration with the Elims, Araris would know that you were stolen from even if he's not the Thief. @Elenion, Araris wouldn't have to know of the Thief's current activities via PM to still be working with them. Not only could there be codes they're using in the thread to communicate (you're familiar with some of those methods, I believe), but in this case, if Meta and Araris are working together (Meta as the Thief and Araris as the Elim in this scenario, but it could work a few ways), Araris could, at any cycle he needed an alibi, claim he stole from Meta, and Meta would back him up even if it's not true. There'd be a slight risk it would happen when someone else had something successfully stolen, but it'd be a risk worth taking to "clear" Araris (or for that matter, any of the Elims that was blocked could have claimed Thief with a setup like that, just obviously only one of them in the game). It's not a complicated setup, and I can totally see them setting up a contingency plan like that. If the Elims and the Thief found each other, they'd have plenty of reason to work together, with the Thief being given protection from the Elim kill in return for targeting villagers and depriving them of their items.
Yitzi2 Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Jondesu said: Yeah, that's true. Easy enough for them to know that, though. Araris' "ghostliness" as you put it is just Araris in every game. Regardless of his role. He just drifts through barely noticed until he drops a bombshell. Like this claim to be the Thief. Bear in mind that with my working theory of colloboration with the Elims, Araris would know that you were stolen from even if he's not the Thief. @Elenion, Araris wouldn't have to know of the Thief's current activities via PM to still be working with them. Not only could there be codes they're using in the thread to communicate (you're familiar with some of those methods, I believe), but in this case, if Meta and Araris are working together (Meta as the Thief and Araris as the Elim in this scenario, but it could work a few ways), Araris could, at any cycle he needed an alibi, claim he stole from Meta, and Meta would back him up even if it's not true. There'd be a slight risk it would happen when someone else had something successfully stolen, but it'd be a risk worth taking to "clear" Araris (or for that matter, any of the Elims that was blocked could have claimed Thief with a setup like that, just obviously only one of them in the game). It's not a complicated setup, and I can totally see them setting up a contingency plan like that. If the Elims and the Thief found each other, they'd have plenty of reason to work together, with the Thief being given protection from the Elim kill in return for targeting villagers and depriving them of their items. Any theories about why he claimed unblocked thief rather than blocked thief?
Metacognition he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 Wow, to give credit where credit is due, this level of convoluted-ness sounds like something I'd come up with if I were an Elim, Jondesu. Unfortunately, I can confirm that I was stolen from last night and without PMs, I don't see how Araris could know that and be an Elim working with a thief rather than just being the thief themselves. This does seem like it'll be helpful in finding the rest of the Ventures as well. If they were willing to go to this length, I'm now a lot more suspicious of those that tried to get the bandwagon rolling on Araris early.
Yitzi2 Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 Ok. Now that we've heard from everybody (thank you to both of you), time for some analysis: We can break down possibilities into three categories: Either Jondesu and Araris are both telling the truth, or Jondesu is lying, or Jondesu is telling the truth and Araris is lying. A. If Jondesu and Araris are both telling the truth, that means that Jondesu targeted Araris, but was blocked by someone else and thus was injured without blocking Araris. This leaves one of two possibilities: A1: There is a secret role (for instance, a hazekiller role that is not injured when it blocks); this seems highly unlikely. A2: Either Elenion or I blocked Jondesu; since we each claimed to have blocked the other, this would require us both to be lying. (For the record: I have a policy of not telling outright lies even as an elim.) This would be fairly unlikely to start with, and I think I am one of the closer-to-confirmed-as-village players after my revelation of giving Flash that pewter. B. If Jondesu is lying, he is presumably an elim. If so, then an elim specifically requested that DroughtBringer return to the game...was he trying to get an active teammate so that he could have a guaranteed block to frame Araris? That seems a bit convoluted...but why else would there be no elim kill, and whom would he have blocked? On the other hand, DroughtBringer voted for Jondesu; does that help clear him, or is it just bussing? So that leaves: B1: Jondesu and DB are both elims. B2: Jondesu is an elim, but DB is not. C. If Jondesu is telling the truth, and Araris is lying, we have two possibilities: C1: Araris is the thief, but is lying about not being blocked. If so, his motivations are unclear, unless Meta is the elim, Araris realized that and manipulated Meta into a lie, and is now going to reveal that he was blocked so we can take out Meta and end the game before he gets killed. (If that is the situation, Araris will presumably let us know fairly soon.) It also makes it a bit unclear as to why this was the first night since N0 that the elims didn't do a kill. In case C1, Meta is an elim. C2: Araris is an elim, and lying about everything. In this case, Meta and HH must both be elims (or one could be a thief loyal to the elims, but that seems fairly unlikely. Or one's a thief loyal to the elims following a plan arranged before BR was killed, or there's a third courier, but those seem unlikely as well). B seems the most likely to me, so I will keep my vote on Jondesu for now. (Araris, if it is case C1, no matter what your motivations, you should know that if Jondesu is lynched on your say-so and turns out to be innocent, you're pretty much guaranteed to be next.)
Elenion he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 I've got two things more to chip in: 1. Seeing as we're fairly sure that Jon didn't target Araris, that means that he did target somebody and block them, or else he wouldn't have been injured. Because nobody else has stepped forward to claim, and inactive players wouldn't have put in actions, there's a high chance that Jon conspired with a teammate for Jon to target them so that he would be injured, and this elim hasn't stepped forward because that would weaken Jon's position. 2. If Jon purposefully blocked a teammate, that teammate had to have had a free action to have Jon block. Starting from the top of the player list, I'm going to go through the players and see if they have an action "alibi" for last night. HH: Inactive last cycle Flash: Soft-cleared village, and so above suspicion in my book Manukos: Inactive last cycle Yitzi: Alibi: Hazekilling me Cloudjumper: NO ALIBI Jon: Alibi: Hazekilling somebody Drought: Inactive last cycle Me: Alibi: Hazekilling Yitzi Araris: Alibi: Stealing from Meta Meta: somebody said he had been inactive since Tuesday. He didn't post last cycle, so I'm inclined to say he was Inactive last cycle Sart: Inactive last cycle Looks like Cloud is the only one who didn't have an alibi for last night while still being on to perform an action, so assuming Jon's evil I think Cloud is the other active elim. Last cycle I posted my suspected elim team as: [Jon OR Araris] + [Meta OR Yitzi OR Cloud] + [HH OR Manukos OR Drought OR Sart] Putting Cloud and Jon in, and eliminating Araris and Yitzi as suspects because Yitzi gave Flash Pewter and Araris is basically confirmed Thief [Jon OR Araris] + [Meta OR Yitzi OR Cloud] + [HH OR Manukos OR Drought OR Sart] Because Cloud tunneled pretty hard on Meta earlier, I don't think Cloud and Meta are on the same team (the reason I put them in an "or" bracket together), and so I'll take Meta off. I also think the inactive elim is one of the ones who just activated, so I'll take off HH and Sart. [Jon OR Araris] + [Meta OR Yitzi OR Cloud] + [HH OR Manukos OR Drought OR Sart] Presenting: The Len Inquisition hit list! 1
manukos he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 (edited) ok i am all caught up , time to contribute after reading 20 pages yesterday ...(what am i doing with my life ) my general alinments were that flash was definately vilage and so was jon , less so elenion but still , and i leaned heavily on ytzi cloudjumper and araris being evil however after today my thoughts took a wild turn . 1) i am sure that ytzi is village (if no one other takes responsibility for giving pewter to flash ) 2) jondesu is more than likely evil (unless he comes up with a satisfactory explanation of why he lied about who he hazekilled) 3) araris is neutral so not definately evil (though it is alway possible that he sided with the elims i doubt it sinse he hasnt tried to steal form flash at all ) 4) in case that jon turns out to be evil i would also be tempted to vote for elenion since he leaned towards siding with jon without explisitly doing so (witch is what elims tend to do) 5) still suspicious of cloudjumper now as to what i think could have happened. i belive that the lack of lynch was due to misscomunication or prioritising other actions rather than "jon, hazekilled his fellow elim" but if it is the second what are those abilities and why would jon prioritise hazekilling instead of ...well , killing . i doubt it is lurching or emotional alomancy message to the elims : if you kill someone at least post on that night , chasing ghosts with no info isn't fun at all PS how many elims are there left? edit (clarifiacation on being still suspicious of cloud)+ RE-Edit i am doin this to avoid double posting , a couple of points since Jon didn't hazekill araris , do we know who he targeted (if he targeted an inactive then it would be unlikely for him to be injured ) ? also regarding roles , other than the araris the thief, the pile of injured hazekillers, elenion being a rioter lord flash a mistborn and myself do we have verification for anyone else ? i might be wrong but i think rolecalling from everione right now is in our interests since we have a smaller group and we can make use of information better as well as spoting contradictions from liars PS2 I will be back today to see how the situation has evolved but i'll miss the next day cycle probably Edited June 16, 2017 by Manukos
Steeldancer he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 (edited) Rusts and Ruin this evolved fast. Thanks to Meta and HH. We will oblige you, HH, by killing you off lol. After we find all the elims. I feel like this deserves some RP eventually, I'll get around to that. Edited June 16, 2017 by The Flash
Jondesu he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 Wow, ya'll have just really made up your minds, haven't you? I figured I'd at least go down swinging, but you're not changing your minds now. Too bad I've got a whole conspiracy working against me. Ya'll probably only have another couple cycles before we lose and the Elims win.
Steeldancer he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Jondesu said: Wow, ya'll have just really made up your minds, haven't you? I figured I'd at least go down swinging, but you're not changing your minds now. Too bad I've got a whole conspiracy working against me. Ya'll probably only have another couple cycles before we lose and the Elims win. Ahem grammar check. It's ALL Y'ALL when directed at a group of people. 2
Yitzi2 Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Jondesu said: Wow, ya'll have just really made up your minds, haven't you? I figured I'd at least go down swinging, but you're not changing your minds now. Too bad I've got a whole conspiracy working against me. Ya'll probably only have another couple cycles before we lose and the Elims win. Not really. Since if you are cleared on the lynch, then we've got a pretty good idea of who had to be lying if you're telling the truth, and that will mean we'll find quite a few elims at the cost of only one villager. Edited June 16, 2017 by Yitzi2
Jondesu he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 (edited) 9 minutes ago, The Flash said: Ahem grammar check. It's ALL Y'ALL when directed at a group of people. Not at all. As a Southerner, I know that "YA ALL" is contracted to "YA'LL", which can be plural or singular. Edited June 16, 2017 by Jondesu
manukos he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 @Jondesu who do you think the elims are then ? also @Yitzi2 in the case that he is exhonorated ,who do you think are the the next targets ? araris meta and hh? that would still mean that one of them is the thiwf , having sided with the elims in witch case i would advise the true thief to releal himself and avoid lynching since the elims have been found out
Jondesu he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 Just now, Manukos said: @Jondesu who do you think the elims are then ? also @Yitzi2 in the case that he is exhonorated ,who do you think are the the next targets ? araris meta and hh? that would still mean that one of them is the thiwf , having sided with the elims in witch case i would advise the true thief to releal himself and avoid lynching since the elims have been found out As I've said, I do think the Elims are likely Araris, Meta, and HH, unless Araris or Meta is actually the Thief, in which case I'd look at Yitzi or, well, you.
manukos he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jondesu said: As I've said, I do think the Elims are likely Araris, Meta, and HH, unless Araris or Meta is actually the Thief, in which case I'd look at Yitzi or, well, you. could i get your thoughts on a couple of more things please? 1)do you still claim that your target for hazekilling was araris? (if yes then they surely have the thief with them, ) 2)do you belive that flash is vilage ? 3) do you disagree with the thought process that since yitzi gave pewter to flash, he is village?
Steeldancer he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 Not only did yitzi give pewter, he also hinted at another action which I have not mentioned to the village, and will not disclose in front of elim ears. I know I can trust Yitzi. In fact, right now, there is no one I trust more.
Yitzi2 Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 24 minutes ago, The Flash said: Not only did yitzi give pewter, he also hinted at another action which I have not mentioned to the village, and will not disclose in front of elim ears. I know I can trust Yitzi. In fact, right now, there is no one I trust more. I'm glad you caught my hint. 1
Yitzi2 Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Jondesu said: As I've said, I do think the Elims are likely Araris, Meta, and HH, unless Araris or Meta is actually the Thief, in which case I'd look at Yitzi or, well, you. If you're telling the truth but Araris is the thief, then Araris and Meta would necessarily be lying (unless Elenion and I were both lying, or there's a secret role somewhere). As such, the best choice would probably be to lynch Meta (as if one of the two is thief and one is elim, chances are Araris is thief and Meta is elim), and then Araris, and then based on Araris' role we'd have an idea about HH.
Jondesu he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Manukos said: could i get your thoughts on a couple of more things please? 1)do you still claim that your target for hazekilling was araris? (if yes then they surely have the thief with them, ) 2)do you belive that flash is vilage ? 3) do you disagree with the thought process that since yitzi gave pewter to flash, he is village? Of course. I wasn't lying. Yeah, Flash is pretty much 100% confirmed at this point. Yes, I disagree strongly. I think that was essentially a WGG, just cleverly using a villager as the "wounded gazelle". It bought trust from Flash, who was going to be confirmed villager anyway, and let them hide more easily (Yitzi in particular).
Yitzi2 Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 4 hours ago, Jondesu said: Yes, I disagree strongly. I think that was essentially a WGG, just cleverly using a villager as the "wounded gazelle". It bought trust from Flash, who was going to be confirmed villager anyway, and let them hide more easily (Yitzi in particular). Keeping a village Mistborn alive seems a bit of a steep price for a WGG. Obviously, I can't be completely cleared...but assuming me to be an elim should be fairly low on the list of probabilities, rather than slot 1 or 2.
Jondesu he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 24 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said: Keeping a village Mistborn alive seems a bit of a steep price for a WGG. Obviously, I can't be completely cleared...but assuming me to be an elim should be fairly low on the list of probabilities, rather than slot 1 or 2. But see, it was already public knowledge that he had no metal vials. With one Metallurgist gone and the other possibly also in contact with the Elims, they could keep him equipped with metals that wouldn't hurt them, but have themselves pretty much fully trusted by the village Mistborn. It's an amazing gambit that seems to be paying off well. I wish I could come up with plans half that good when I'm an Elim (or when I'm a villager, I didn't have any good plans this game, except hopefully getting lucky with my Hazekilling).
Elenion he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 6 hours ago, The Flash said: Ahem grammar check. It's ALL Y'ALL when directed at a group of people. 6 hours ago, Jondesu said: Not at all. As a Southerner, I know that "YA ALL" is contracted to "YA'LL", which can be plural or singular. Y'all hush. I come from a hillbilly Utah town, and we never use all y'all. We use y'all for plural and ya for singular. The problem I see with Jon's proposed Pewter Gambit that the elims could have pulled is that I can't see the elims wasting Pewter and a kill just to get Yitzi trusted a few cycles down the road. I would have just held onto the Pewter and wasted Flash. Quicker, easier, and more efficient. Yitzi, the writeup implied that you are a Thug, and my ribs want to know if that's actually the case.
Elenion he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Jondesu said: But see, it was already public knowledge that he had no metal vials. With one Metallurgist gone and the other possibly also in contact with the Elims, they could keep him equipped with metals that wouldn't hurt them, but have themselves pretty much fully trusted by the village Mistborn. It's an amazing gambit that seems to be paying off well. I wish I could come up with plans half that good when I'm an Elim (or when I'm a villager, I didn't have any good plans this game, except hopefully getting lucky with my Hazekilling). I seriously doubt Ecth was in contact with the elims. It's not his style, and we haven't seen any evidence of poisoned vials.
Steeldancer he/him Posted June 16, 2017 Posted June 16, 2017 (edited) Jondesu. Tell me. How do you know that I only have metals that can't hurt you? You don't. Also I would love to know if you still have that spike you got from Cluny. Edited June 16, 2017 by The Flash
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