Long Game (3)2: Pulling on Strings

[Yitzi2]

I will be unable to post for the rest of day six.

Just in case someone wants to try soothing me again, I will vote for lamspartacus, because he seems to be inactive.

[little wilson she/her]

Yeah, I was pretty sure Jon was spiked and I didn't want to give the spiked a heads-up about what was probably going to happen, in case the Inquisitor has an Uber Iron power and could've saved him. The only people who knew were me, Hero, my intermediary contact and the Coinshot. And then when I remembered his comment about copper during the day, I was even more certain, since it was either misdirection to make it seem like he couldn't be a smoker or still motivated by evil because it encouraged using copper in a way to cover others but make yourself seem clean. And village smokers should've been keeping their copper off.

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Unless Wilson is pulling some hardcore deception, I suppose this means Hero is soft-cleared then?

Kipper b/c last turn

[Silverblade5 he/him]

Hey guy, I'm back. I'm sorry I've been so inactive. Things really picked up last week, in preparation for the SAT, which is tomorrow. I should be able to resume activity after that assuming I can get caught up.

[Elenion he/him]

Heh. Last cycle's first Tineye message (the math one) decoded to ISING THE NAMING OF JON. I dunno why the Tineye would false-claim like that.

Anyway, ising the voting of Kipper.

If I have time today I might work on a song parody for the situation.

[little wilson she/her]

I feel relatively safe in saying that Kipper isn't evil. My reasoning:

He survived the lynch. Jon is almost guaranteed to have been the first convert, so if Kipper is evil, he's either the Inquisitor or the second convert. The second convert couldn't have survived based on their role alone, which means that either Kipper could be the Inquisitor or the Inquisitor has an Uber-Iron that can save from lynches. Let's go into both of those:

Kipper is the Inquisitor

• Aman's death: Kipper would've known for a fact that Aman died to a Coinshot. While he likes mind-games, I don't see him taking that heavy of a correct stance if he were the Inquisitor.
• UBERSTEEL: I could see him sacrificing this with the first conversion, knowing that his new convert can make kills. It's a risky move, but if it pays off, it's great.
• Jondesu: Not counting this game, Kipper has only played 2 games with Jon: MR19 and AG3. Kipper died in cycle 1 in MR19 and cycle 2 in AG3. He's never really played with Jon, so why convert him over any number of other players that Kipper's actually familiar with. I'd guess Rae or maybe Lopen would be a good first convert for InquisiKip. Possibly Mark or Aman, if Aman had survived for long enough. But Jon makes no sense.
• UBERCOPPER: I really don't see him getting rid of Uber Copper this early, even with a Smoker.
• Ornstein: At the beginning of the game, Kipper encouraged the Inquisitor to avoid targets like me or Meta, but I don't see him attacking a semi-active player on their first game. When Kipper is evil, the kills his team makes are what I would call typical early targets for eliminators: fear kills or people with important roles who've claimed to the wrong people. In LG12, two of their first three attacks were fear kills and the last was a known Seeker. In LG24, they were limited to a mega kill every third cycle, and when they were first able to use it on Cycle 3, they killed 5 people. 2 of those were fearkills, 2 were other relatively important village roles who'd claimed to them, and the last was a kill role that was mostly unplanned (only one of those 5 was on their first game). I don't see him changing that up and attacking players early on in their first game.
• Meta: The Meta kill is an act of desperation, from a team who needs an additional convert so bad that they're willing to attack a complete inactive to ensure they succeed. That is really not a move Kipper would make. Like, at all. Ever. The thought of him making that move makes me laugh absurdly hard.

The Inquisitor has Uber-Iron and can save from lynches

• This is broken. Absurdly so. It would mean that we would never be able to lynch any of them, and if the Inquisitor does have Uber Pewter like in LG2, even sending a Coinshot after him wouldn't kill him. So unless we got massive coordination from the village to pull off a hammer that miraculously the Spiked never learned about, they'd block every lynch on one of them. And if the Coinshot died, they basically win because the village has no way of stopped them. Especially if the Tineye dies and PMs go down. Yeah, I seriously doubt this is a thing.

So...yeah. I seriously doubt Kipper is evil.

I'm going to vote for Arinian. I could see him converting Jon, since they've played 4 games together, though I'm not sure they've ever worked together, and they've certainly never been on an evil team together. But the way Arinian just kind of jumped on the Kipper vote last time after I was like "I'm nigh certain Kipper is evil" struck me as a "Heh. You're wrong, but sure, I'll follow you along with this if it'll get you to not be suspicious of me" type thing.

[Elenion he/him]

Looking at this from a GM perspective, I guess it does make a lot of sense to put multiple Thugs in a game like this. That way if we do have an unsuccessful lynch, it isn't as likely that it's the Inquisitor. So maybe Kipper's innocent. But we still have that Hero information leak to consider, and that implicated Kipper, Wilson, and Aonar.

@little wilson You imply heavily that a Coinshot killed Aman. Where does that information come from?

[little wilson she/her]

A Coinshot claimed to one of my contacts (I very intentionally haven't mentioned the identity of all of my contacts so as to protect the Coinshot from the intermediary being converted. The intermediary could be someone I've mentioned or it could be someone else. Who knows?  ). This Coinshot has apparently claimed the Aman kill. I mentioned that towards the end of the last day turn. From what I know, they've also claimed Dalinar's kill as well, but not Ornstein's.

I think it's risky to assume that Hero was attacked because of a leak. That's possible, sure. But who's to say that the Inquisitor doesn't have Uber Bronze and hasn't seeked Hero? Maybe he saw that Hero was a Lurcher and really wanted the Iron spike so they attacked Hero, hoping that he'd be protecting someone other than himself. I thought the leak had merit last cycle, but with Kipper's survival and things not matching up at all with him as the Inquisitor, I don't think it's the leak. I think it was just fluke.

[Arraenae]

6 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Looking at this from a GM perspective, I guess it does make a lot of sense to put multiple Thugs in a game like this. That way if we do have an unsuccessful lynch, it isn't as likely that it's the Inquisitor. So maybe Kipper's innocent. But we still have that Hero information leak to consider, and that implicated Kipper, Wilson, and Aonar.

@little wilson You imply heavily that a Coinshot killed Aman. Where does that information come from?

Len, I'm pretty sure Wilson just found a Spiked with her allomancy and offed him. That seems rather village-like.

[Elenion he/him]

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

Len, I'm pretty sure Wilson just found a Spiked with her allomancy and offed him. That seems rather village-like.

Apparently I missed when she announced that the first time (I have been skimming a bit recently), because I was running off of the assumption that Aman was killed by the Inquisitor. Soft-cleared or not soft-cleared, I'm going to ask her source for something like that. It doesn't make sense: If the anonymous Coinshot killed Aman, who did the Spiked kill that night?

If a player got killed twice, would we get one notification or two? @OrlokTsubodai

[Herowannabe he/him]

Well, I am not as ready to let Kipper off the hook as easily as Wilson is.

Worst case scenario- Kipper is a village thug, but since the Spiked just took out Meta who was a thug anyway, then they don't gain any extra conversion options by us lynching another thug. However, if we leave villagethug!Kipper alive, the Spiked have one more player that they can kill for a guaranteed conversion opportunity.

Best case scenario- Kipper is the Inquisitor.

It's worth the risk to me. So yeah, sorry Kipper (unless you are the Inquisitor. Then I'm not sorry). 

Edited April 11, 2017 by Herowannabe
Formatting

[DeTess she/her]

10 hours ago, little wilson said:

• Meta: The Meta kill is an act of desperation, from a team who needs an additional convert so bad that they're willing to attack a complete inactive to ensure they succeed. That is really not a move Kipper would make. Like, at all. Ever. The thought of him making that move makes me laugh absurdly hard.

Wilson, there is one part of your logic here that I'd like to ask you to expand upon: If Kipper is innocent, as you seem to think he is, what would drive the elims to this desperation? If Kipper is innocent, then the inquisitor isn't really in danger, so there isn't really any reason to push for another convert ASAP. Remember that the elims probably didn't know that Jondesu would go down this cycle.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Sweet. I was curious about the lack of apparent vote manipulation as well, but I guess there was no reason to worry.

Anyways, I haven't really done much in terms of analysis up till now, so I figured it was time to do my part.

Spoiler

1. Arinian - He was all for a Day 1 lynch. I'm not so sure the Inquisitor would be as strong a supporter of a Day 1 lynch as he was. It's possible though, so eh. He first voted for Mark for his suggestion of all of the Thugs revealing and went on to discuss the negatives of the plan. His points against the plan were thought out fairly well, IMO, and some of his points sound like he'd thought it through from the elim's perspective very thoroughly, which could imply he's the Inquisitor, but I recall in LG30 he did almost the same thing(which is part of the reason for my suspicion against him then) and he was a villager then. He then removed his vote from Mark and voted on Drought for lurking. Arinian also said he was certa... *ahem* ...that he had no doubt Aman was killed by the Inquisitor. Now it comes out that he was killed by a Coinshot. That's a pretty bold stance to take if he was the Inquisitor. He later votes on Aonar for lurking because he also lurked in LG29 when he was an elim. That post includes Drake, Rae, Yitzi, and Drought as other potential suspects. And he says he's reading Araris as villager. Overall, the post gave me a villager read. He changes his vote to Drought again to help break the tie between him and Spar. Voted on Rae for staying low and unnoticed. At this point, he doesn't post much, except for one liners saying he still suspects Rae for being quiet. He explains that exams have been taking up a lot of his time a little later. Next he votes on Aonar because he "wants to be lynched." He then changed his vote to Kipper because Wilson said she was confident he was evil. I know Wilson is suspicious of him for that, but I read it as him just willing to take a chance since someone was confident about Kipper being evil over Aonar. It's basically the reason I voted Kipper over Aonar too after all. All things considered, I don't think Arin is the Inquisitor. Probably not converted either, but I'm less sure of that.
2. HH - Claims to be a Regular Crewmember. I believe him. Villager! (that one was easy ) Okay, as a little extra analysis, his roleclaim combined with his blatant bandwagoning makes me believe he's not the Inquisitor at least.
3. Elenion - First real post, he asks whether the Inquisitor has special powers and how many conversions does Meta think they've got. No read from it. Could be playing ignorant, but I could definitely see it coming from a village Len. He said he thought the Ruin granted powers was the ability to convert. He also explains how he would have chosen the Inquisitor if he was the GM. He voted on Drought for the CC. He kind of accuses Ecth of Rioting me and asks him if he has anything to say about that. I'm not exactly sure why he'd ask in the thread like that. It's fairly important that we don't reveal Mistings so the Inquisitor can't convert or kill our best roles. He later comes to the conclusion that the Rioter is village. He votes on Yitzi for not having his own opinions. He later removes it saying the bandwagon on him(Yitzi) "has gone far enough" and that he doesn't think Yitzi's vote on him had evil intent. He puts his vote on Drought for lurking. He switches to Spar to stop a tie from happening, and he also says he thinks it was the Inquisitor that killed Aman, but that he'd likely have taken Aman up on his offer for the battle of wits. Switches back to voting on Drought. Responds to Rand's comment about Aman's challenge, saying he'd already stated enjoyment of such challenges in a past game, so he wasn't lying about taking aman up on his challenge. I'm not sure this means much at this point, since we know it was a Coinshot who killed him. The fact that he mentioned he thinks it was the Inquisitor that killed Aman so late in the Day might mean he didn't want to comment until he got a better grasp on what the villagers were thinking of the kill. He says he thinks the kill on Dalinar was made by a Coinshot(turns out he was right?) and he agrees the CC can wait. He votes on Drake, saying it was based on gut and a little bit of evidence. This post actually sounds a little off to me. Next, he responds to Jondesu's analysis of him(which was after the first conversion, so Jon might have been Spiked here). He agrees with me that the first convert was likely turned into a Smoker because of the Inquisitor giving up UberCopper with their second conversion. He discusses how to use Soothing alongside Seeking to confirm the scans. He also warns that the Spiked Smoker could use their Smoking offensively. He votes Aonar instead of Kipper, but says if Aonar turns out village, Kipper and Wilson would be his next suspects, because he didn't think it was coincidence that Hero was attacked(again making it clear he was voting based on reasoning and not bandwagoning), which is kind of what it seems like now. He may have been trying to capitalize on the coincidence to get a few high value targets lynched consecutively. He switches his vote to Kipper because Wilson explains Aonar's playstyle and to solidify the lynch on Kipper I suppose. He also responds to Wilson explaining that he'd be a wasted conversion because he doesn't get trust very often. Once Kipper survives, Len says he thinks the Spiked Smoker will be Smoking him(Kipper) to keep us from learning his alignment. And now we're up to date. He's voted on Kipper because of the Hero stuff. Honestly, I think he could be the Inquisitor. I know a lot of that is just me shortening his posts and there's not a lot of analysis in there, but to me, something just feels off. Jondesu did an analysis post of him, stating he had a Neutral read but was leaning village for now and that he might get converted later in the game, which seems a little odd to me.
4. DA - From what I recall of his posts, I really don't think he's the Inquisitor or converted. I suppose that read is based off of gut, since I can't recall any one specific thing that made me lean that way.
5. Randuir - Oh boy. He's posted so much...well, I will say that I don't think he's the Inquisitor. I just don't see him making the moves the Inquisitor has made so far. That might not be the case, but that's just how it seems to me. He could be converted, but I'm actually thinking he's a villager at this point. Jon did some analysis on him as well, saying he was leaning slightly village on him. And since this post is already taking forever, that's all on him.
6. Magestar - Says he's been very busy. He has been really inactive pretty much the whole game, which I wouldn't expect from him if he was the Inquisitor. I also don't expect the Inquisitor would want to convert him because of this. He did vote on me, but I won't hold it against him.  Probably village?
7. Hero - He's either the Inquisitor and he had one of his Spikey converts attack him to gain trust, or he's a Lurcher. As it stands, I'm inclined to believe he's what he says he is, because I'm not sure what the Inquisitor would gain from attracting so much attention. As such, I see no reason for me to analyse all of his posts. (at this point, I may be looking for reasons not to analyse the more active players )
8. Yitzi - Posts some IKYK about how the Inquisitor might act in response to Arraenae. He assumes early on that the Inquisitor doesn't have the power to appear to be another role, which could be him genuinely not knowing, but considering he seems like he has a pretty good grasp on the rules, I don't think it would be unbelievable if he was trying to look ignorant there. I mean, to me, he seems genuine. But I wasn't nearly as wary of Randuir in LG30 as I should have been, so I'm not doing the same thing here with another new player. He voted on Elenion. He seemed pretty certain that Aman was killed by the Inquisitor, a point in his favor, IMO, though I suppose it is possible that the Inquisitor and the Coinshot attacked Aman. >> Voted on Spar and then asked that the lynch be changed to someone who could have participated but didn't, which eventually led to him changing his vote to Drought. When Mark mentioned that getting a convert gives the Spiked a kill action, Yitzi voiced confusion because the converted player would only get the role of the dead misting or nothing. Later, it's explained that the Spiked get a kill since the only kill otherwise would be the Inquisitors Uber-Steel. Again, this could be him feigning ignorance, but that's not the feeling I'm getting from him. I'm leaning villager for now, or at least not the Inquisitor(but I'm staying paranoid! >>). I have looked over his posts, and the feeling remains that he's more likely village than anything. The fact that he's voted so someone could test to see if he's covered by a Smoker was helpful as well. So, officially, I'd say I'm leaning village, somewhat paranoid he could be the Inquisitor(but not very much), and leaning towards not converted, since he's a new player and had some votes on him early.
9. Silverblade - Hasn't done a lot. He's stated suspicion of Arinian, Aonar(voted on him D1), and Dalinar(D2 vote). Yitzi as well, but that was based on a misunderstanding of Yitzi's post. Other than that, nothing. I doubt he's the Inquisitor, simply because of his inactivity, but I don't think I'd totally discount the possibility. I would suggest looking at more likely targets first though. As for whether he's a convert, it's impossible to tell. Hopefully he'll be more active like he said.
10. Arraenae - Not much to say here, since after reading over her posts, I'm still of the opinion that she's probably village. Maybe. I'm not too confident about that, since I have felt at times that something just seemed a little off with her, but I'll be honest here and admit I have trouble reading her. I haven't been in contact with her this game, which is different. At one point, she did say she thought it was likely that Drake was the Inquisitor, which would be kind of a weird thing to say if she was the Inquisitor or a convert(less weird for a convert though I think). Her analysis post of Bugsy led her to saying she had a slight distrust for him. Does a little bit of analysis on Aonar but doesn't have time to finish and says she likely won't be able to be very active. Also voted on Meta for the Soothing/Rioting plan(Day was practically over at that point though). Continues her analysis of Aonar which makes her say she tentatively trusts him.
11. Lopen - Jondesu was after me and said he thought I was the Inquisitor. I'm innocent obviously! 
12. Wilson - Pretty sure she's still a villager.
13. Spar - Inactive.
14. Araris - Says he's fine with a no lynch on D1, but we should at least have one on D2, and don't forget PM safety. He said he wasn't surprised that the Inquisitor killed Aman, since he's such a trickster(my words, not his ) and voted on Elenion without reasoning. Explains why he didn't explain his vote. Then he explains it(it was because Elenion was aggressive towards Ecthelion about the Rioting of my vote). Continues voting Elenion the next Day for the same reason, and says he doesn't agree with the suspicion on Drake. Also said he was buying into Drake's suspicion of Wilson until he brought up her reputation, saying he didn't want to lynch based on reputation, especially as early as it was(D2 I believe). Says he doubts any eliminator was involved with lynching Drake, and we should try not to centralize discussion around 2 players because it doesn't force the elims hand, which is a fair point I suppose. Explains his idea about expanding the players with votes on them more, and says the bandwagon on him isn't helpful and votes on HH for that. All of which I can understand and agree with(not that I suspect HH for it, just that I can understand voting on him for bandwagoning like that). He later states he'd be fine with a Coinshot killing Arinian or HH for their unhelpful bandwagoning(I read Arin's vote as more of a joke, but the bandwagoning wasn't on me). Says he doesn't think meta would feign inactivity if he was the Inquisitor, and that he doesn't have a place to vote but will look for one. Later that day he votes for HH, saying he didn't have strong feelings about the current lynch targets and he was too busy to create discussion, and also asks Ecth to answer his earlier question. Switches his vote to Ecth for not answering him. Votes on Kipper the next Cycle, saying that Aonar is acting as his regular self, and that Hero had a point about people avoiding the lynch on Kipper. His last post was about the possibility of a Coinshot affecting balance, potentially giving us a large number of Thugs. He is probably one of the toughest players to get a solid read on, which to me, makes him a dangerous player in a game with conversions(LG20 anyone?(the House Venture backstabbing deception one, if I got the number wrong, where Araris was converted and basically went through the whole game unnoticed)). I don't think he's the Inquisitor, based on what the Inquisitor has done so far, but I do suggest we be wary of him. So, leaning villager for now, since I'm not sure if he'd be an early target.
15. Omegaster - All he's done is RP. >> @OmeGaster, while RP is great, we really need you to discuss who you think is suspicious or who is likely a villager. Also, if you've any strategy idea's, it's always helpful to get as many thoughts out there as possible. Considering Ornstein might be the only player the Spiked have killed, and Omegaster knows him, it's possible Omegaster is the Inquisitor. I'm not sure why he'd convert Jondesu, and he didn't post for about a 9 day stretch or something, but he's one of a few I'd consider a likely candidate for the Inquisitor. Mind voting on someone Omegaster?
16. Kipper - I agree with Wilson on him. And no, I'm not just sheeping her. Last Cycle? Sure. But it was better than anything I had at the time.

Whew. It is extremely late and I've been at this for about 4 hours or so, with 6 players left to go. I also would like to go over everything Jondesu has said to combine with this analysis, since looking over who he tried to draw attention to(like me and Aonar ) and who he might have tried to draw attention away from could be very helpful.

TL;DR - Village reads, but could be converted, since I've no idea who the other convert could be: Arinian, HH, Randuir, DA, Magestar, Hero, Yitzi(a little paranoid of him), Silverblade, Arraenae, Wilson, Araris, Kipper. Inquisitor reads: Elenion, Omegaster.

I've still got these players to analyse:

17. Bugsy - 
18. Figberts - 
19. Mark - 
20. Manukos - 
21. Aonar - 
22. Ecthelion -

Omegaster. Originally was voting for Elenion, but I think I'd rather hear from Omegaster more right now.

Praise the Ja.

[Elenion he/him]

@TheMightyLopen To clear up a few things:

I began this game after reading the official rules to LG2 but not before reading the GM spreadsheet. That's what caused my confusion about the Ruin-granted abilities.

I've been very clear about why I'm voting who I'm voting because multiple players have made bandwagoning accusations against me, so especially if I'm voting with the crowd than I want to make it clear that I'm not just slapping my vote down where a bunch of others are.

I suggested that Dalinar was a Coinshot kill because the Spiked would have no motivation to attack an inactive player who couldn't have role-claimed to anybody. A Coinshot, on the other hand, would have wanted to ensure that the game remained primarily active players.

Lastly, I can't control what Jon said in his analysis of me. It sounds like he was throwing out some truths on order to get more trust, and that did have me reading slightly village on him.

[little wilson she/her]

3 hours ago, randuir said:

Wilson, there is one part of your logic here that I'd like to ask you to expand upon: If Kipper is innocent, as you seem to think he is, what would drive the elims to this desperation? If Kipper is innocent, then the inquisitor isn't really in danger, so there isn't really any reason to push for another convert ASAP. Remember that the elims probably didn't know that Jondesu would go down this cycle.

The lack of Mistings killed for cycles in a row and therefore the lack of conversions. The Inquisitor leapt at both early conversion opportunities, despite them being copper when there are far more useful spike types (especially with village emotional allomancers trying to find copper clouds, as was public by the time the second conversion happened). To me, that indicates that he's trying to build up his team as fast as he can. However, he hasn't been able to convert anyone since night 3, and if they didn't kill a Misting last night, they probably wouldn't be able to convert anyone night 6 either. A three cycle dearth would suck for a person trying to build up their team quickly.

I don't see Inquisitor Kipper killing Meta if he wanted a Pewter spike. I could see him going after Ecth, but not a complete inactive.

Oh, and regarding the questions about what did the Inquisitor do if not kill Aman or Dalinar? I imagine he used one of his Uber powers both cycles. If I had to guess, I'd say Uber Bronze, to find Mistings.

[OmeGaster he/him]

Rieyun is really confused right now.

He falls asleep for a couple days (I LIKE MY NAPS ALRIGHT!) and everything goes to anarchy and Mr. Slap-Your-Face is dead.

[DeTess she/her]

Okay, so regarding the current non-Kipper lynch candidates. I don't think it is likely OmeGaster is the inquisitor. The reason is that I'd expect the GM's to not pick someone who doesn't have some form of proven track-record of activity. It can't be ruled out, of course, and I would really like to hear some more game discussion from him, so I can try to make a more accurate judgement of his alignment. The same goes for @Figberts, btw.

I'm not so certain one way or another regarding Arinian. His vote-jumping from Aonar to Kipper was too early for me to be certain he was an elim switching his vote to avoid looking suspcious (he was the vote that resulted in Kipper having more votes than Aonar, if I'm not mistaken), but a quick check through his posts hasn't really shown anything that suggests he's village either.

I'm not sure if I'll be able to post something meaningful again during this day-cycle ( I've got an excursion lasting all-day tomorrow, and planned social activites in the evening), though I'll be monitoring the thread.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

11 hours ago, Elenion said:

@TheMightyLopen To clear up a few things:

I began this game after reading the official rules to LG2 but not before reading the GM spreadsheet. That's what caused my confusion about the Ruin-granted abilities.

I've been very clear about why I'm voting who I'm voting because multiple players have made bandwagoning accusations against me, so especially if I'm voting with the crowd than I want to make it clear that I'm not just slapping my vote down where a bunch of others are.

I suggested that Dalinar was a Coinshot kill because the Spiked would have no motivation to attack an inactive player who couldn't have role-claimed to anybody. A Coinshot, on the other hand, would have wanted to ensure that the game remained primarily active players.

Lastly, I can't control what Jon said in his analysis of me. It sounds like he was throwing out some truths on order to get more trust, and that did have me reading slightly village on him.

Fair enough.

That makes sense. Especially since I'd probably get annoyed if people accused me of bandwagoning when I wasn't.

Fair enough, to both of those last points. To be honest, after getting a good day's sleep, I don't suspect you as much. I was probably being overly paranoid, and this response seems very reasonable to me. I'm not sure if I could see you not killing during the first 2 Nights or whatever it was, killing a first time player, and letting Jon put some extra attention on you by including you in his analysis.

7 hours ago, OmeGaster said:

Rieyun is really confused right now.

He falls asleep for a couple days (I LIKE MY NAPS ALRIGHT!) and everything goes to anarchy and Mr. Slap-Your-Face is dead.

...This is almost exactly what you posted last time. You have nothing else to add? A vote perhaps?

Praise the Ja!

Edited April 12, 2017 by TheMightyLopen

[Elenion he/him]

5 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I'm not sure if I could see you not killing during the first 2 Nights or whatever it was, killing a first time player, and letting Jon put some extra attention on you by including you in his analysis.

I could see myself volunteering to be a subject of Jon's analysis or refraining from killing if I had more productive actions to do, but I don't kill first-timers without definite reason. I usually hit the most active players or the best analysts.

The real question: who here would have killed Ornstein? The only one I can think of is OmeGaster, but I'm hesitant to point the finger based only on a sibling death. I have been suspected for multiple Ecth deaths, with me only ever participating in one of them.

[Arraenae]

Jondesu:

I'm splitting this up into three sections: the time before anybody was converted, the time when Jondesu might have been Spiked, and the time that Jondesu had to have been Spiked for.

Preconversion: Jondesu RPs about Remart from AG3. Also states suspicion of Len and votes on him. He apologizes for not reading the LG2 rules. Jondesu says that he's against a D1 lynch, but says that he definitely wants a D2 lynch. He retracts his vote from Len. He mentions people who haven't posted discussion and also places a vote on Mark. Jondesu says that what Mark suggested would hurt the village a lot, which I agree with, and voted on Mark. He also says that if he was the GM, he'd make a player like Mark the Inquisitor. Then Jondesu says that he thinks the D1 vote manips were done by villagers. Now we know that Wilson was one of the vote manipulators, so at least half of that was right. Jondesu RPs more and approves of Aman's challenge. He seems to assume that the Inquisitor killed Aman. After it's brought up that a Coinshot might have killed Aman instead, he says that he could see either a Coinshot or an Inquisitor killing Aman. He also asks Orlok if the writeup would have revealed if there were two attacks on Aman. He RPs more. Then Jondesu votes on Drought for lurking. He tells Headshot that openly discussing things can be very dangerous and that the real analysis will start after someone has been converted.

This line in particular jumped out at me:

Quote

I will be making a list of my own of who I would turn into a Smoker if I were the Inquisitor (don't turn me into one, please, I'd rather be a Coinshot or a Soother if you turn me )

Jondesu says that he's going to look for changes in tactics and posts. He also responds to Lopen's suspicion by saying that Lopen always suspects him, except maybe for the games that Jondesu was elim in. He defends himself from Lopen and Kipper. He responds to Randuir and says that hopefully a Misting wouldn't get lynched. He also says that it's likely that the Inquisitor isn't completely inactive. He doesn't want to lynch Spartacus, a complete inactive. He tells Manukos that it's not surprising that a villager got lynched again, and D2 was very informative.

Possibly converted: He says that the person who was converted was a Smoker, so an Unsnapped became a Smoker to make up for that. Supposedly this was discussed N2, though if it was I don't remember it. I think it's fairly likely that Jondesu was a Smoker and got converted into a Smoker. Aonar says that it's in the LG2 rules, which Jondesu says he didn't check. He claims that he wasn't converted and didn't Snap. He says he'd be fine with a Coinshot attacking the fully inactives and would be okay with lynching them if nobody had any suspicions. He says that if he was the Inquisitor, he might consider converting an inactive, but not for the first conversion. Since Jondesu could have been a Spiked at that time, it could have been an IKYK for future conversions. Jondesu defends Drake by saying that sometimes he's inconsistent too, and he doesn't read Drake's posts as elim-like. He says he doesn't think an Inquisitor Meta would stay inactive and place orders in advance, but acknowledges that it's possible, so really he's remaining neutral on the subject of Meta. He votes on Bugsy for being hypocritical. Jondesu thinks that the Inquisitor had an action and a conversion, and defends Drake more. He lists the people who haven't voted and the people who voted D2 but not D1. He says this:

Quote

My working theory is that the Inquisitor probably did vote D1, to not be called out for inactivity (or for holding back, like Drake), and has probably voted this round too.  Retracting both votes seems somewhat unlikely, but it's possible Ornstein could be our Inquisitor.  I doubt it, though.  More likely, the above list is relatively clear (for being the Inquisitor, but not for being the converted Elim), and the Inquisitor is one of the following:

• Arinian
• Elenion
• Mark
• Ecth
• Me
• Drought
• Lopen
• Aonar
• Randuir
• Rae

Obviously, I know I'm not, and I'm leaning village on Arinian, but the others I'm relatively even on.  I voted for Mark first round, but while I didn't go back and retract it, it wasn't a very strong suspicion in the first place.

N3, he said this:

Quote

Whoops, I'm used to rollovers being later in the day for me, so I didn't get back to change my vote. No harm done, but I don't like not doing something I said I would. I'm not surprised by Drake being a villager, as I said, but I would guess that the Inquisitor didn't vote on him (the convert might have, however). I want to anazlye Elenion, Randuir, Ecth, and Lopen's posts, as the ones I mentioned I was the most suspicious of. I'll try to get that done and post a summary of my thoughts before the end of the night turn. I don't expect to be too high priority of a kill or convert, but I think I've got a good idea going and I don't want to risk it being lost.

Jondesu keeps on denying that he's a convert. Later, he says that he has a neutral read on Len, thinks Lopen is village but a good target for conversion, Randuir is a good target for conversion, and Ecth is his top suspect.

Definitely Converted: Comments on the Tineye message. Votes on Ecth, who he says is acting very Inquisitor-like (lurking, etc). He responds to Len and says that there are some occasions where Tineyes might not send a message. Jondesu denies being the Tineye and retracts his vote on Ecth. Jondesu says that Randuir has been attracting attention but not votes, which counts as flying under the radar. He says that Mark's vote on Kipper is very weak and votes on Ecth (again) for being hypocritical about bandwagons. After Ecth survives a lynch, Jondesu asks if he's a Thug. He says that anyone who Snaps is cleared until the next conversion, but he's unsure about whether Ecth's claim is real or not. He wants to know if Meta was killed by Coinshot or the Spiked, though he probably already knew, being Spiked himself. He promises to analyze people other than Ecth. He says that he'd be more suspicious if Meta came back, because that could signify conversion. Aonar says something about Smokers, which Jondesu says he didn't know. He does a big analysis post, which boils down to this: Aonar probably first convert, Rae not likely convert, Ecth probably village, unlikely to be converted, Lopen leaning Inquisitor, Randuir neutral read, maybe village, and Len probably village now but might be converted later on. That list has incredible IKYK potential. He votes on Aonar and half-defends Kipper. Jondesu says that he'll be suspicious of Kipper if Kipper doesn't respond to all of the votes on him. Jondesu asks for a vote tally. After Kipper is lynched and survives, Jondesu says that he's more suspicious of him.

Phew, that took way too long to write.

[Guest]

22 hours ago, Herowannabe said:

Well, I am not as ready to let Kipper off the hook as easily as Wilson is.

Worst case scenario- Kipper is a village thug, but since the Spiked just took out Meta who was a thug anyway, then they don't gain any extra conversion options by us lynching another thug. However, if we leave villagethug!Kipper alive, the Spiked have one more player that they can kill for a guaranteed conversion opportunity.

Best case scenario- Kipper is the Inquisitor.

It's worth the risk to me. So yeah, sorry Kipper (unless you are the Inquisitor. Then I'm not sorry). 

Well, I'm not entirely ready to let Hero off the hook for this absurd tunneling.

We've been over this multiple times, but what motivation would the Spiked have to kill me? They already have a guaranteed conversion with Meta's rotting carcass. They would only gain a conversion from me, but they would lose the distraction of the discussion/suspicion around me. That discussion/suspicion is fairly dominant in the thread right now. Even if I by some miracle survive until the late game, I'll have suspicion attached to me that the Eliminators can use to their advantage.

Again - the village has no verifiable reason to trust Hero. But Hero is trying to make things out as if he's confirmed village.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Vote tally:

Spar(1): Yitzi
Kipper(3): Ecthelion, Elenion, Hero
Arinian(1): Wilson
Omegaster(1): Lopen
Hero(1): Kipper

No votes(15): @Arinian, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, @Darkness Ascendant, @randuir, @Magestar, @Silverblade5, @Arraenae, Spar, @Araris Valerian, @OmeGaster, Bugsy, @Figberts, Mark, @Manukos, @Aonar Faileas, would you all mind voting?

Spar hasn't been online since Day 1. Bugsy was last online 4-5 days ago. Mark was last online 2 days ago. I don't have much hope for Spar, but I am hoping Bugsy and Mark will be able to become active again once they're not so busy(I think they've mentioned being really busy lately).

I may change my vote once I finish my analysis of the last 6 players I didn't get around to analyzing last night, but I'd still very much like for Omegaster to post actual content and vote for someone. And for the record, I still don't suspect Kipper.

Praise the Ja! (for filler posting )

[Arraenae]

It had been six days. Six days since this madness had began. Five days since people had started dying. Now there were murmurs of Inquisitors among them. Inquisitors! Remart, the corpse next to Rhea, had been working with them.

Rhea paced aimlessly, staring at Remart's dead body. He looked like everyone else here, dirty and disheveled and with bags under his eyes. The only difference was the knife stuck in his throat, and the fact that he was -- was -- dead. Willie had ordered him killed! And for what? For being a Smoker? For having the ill luck to have been kidnapped here just like everyone else? They had turned on him just as quickly as they had turned on Gaetan, Serray, and oh, Lord Ruler, Rhea could still see their faces turning blue and gasping like fish with bulging eyes and oh Lord Ruler Lord Ruler Lord Ruler the Terrisman had even -- he had -- he had even brought in a gallows!

Rhea flinched at the thought. She -- her hands -- they were still clean. For now. But they kept pressuring her to pick someone to kill, to point and name someone to die and --

Deep breaths. She couldn't get hysterical. She couldn't. She couldn't get hysterical and panic and do something to set these people of and die and turn blue and gasp for breath like Gaetan and Serray -- She had to get to Uncle Dayton, he'd be worried sick by now -- Rhea was supposed to have sent him a letter the moment he'd arrived in Fadrex. And oh, Lord Tekiel! Lord Tekiel must have given up on waiting to talk to her about whatever he had wanted, but some here said that Lord Tekiel had brought them here for some sick, sadistic game -- no, no, that couldn't be true, Rhea wouldn't believe it why would someone ever do that? House Aurette had-- had been dirt poor ever since Lady Nicole had gone mad and run off to who-knew-where and vanished as if she had never existed --

Deep breaths. She had to focus on something. There, that knife in Remart's neck still gleaming silver with dried crusted blood. No, not that, something else. The walls, the blank brown solid walls. Focus. Breathe. She still needed to escape. Rhea couldn't let them kill her, she wouldn't let them kill her. Door. There was a door to this room. The Terrisman had brought the gallows through there. Maybe -- maybe he'd found a way out. Rhea turned towards the door. It was better than nothing. Better than staring at Remart's dead body and walking aimlessly all over the place. Maybe she could escape.

---

This would be an excellent opportunity for Rhea to meet someone. Perhaps someone who had enthusiastically clamored for a lynch?

Bugsy, for what I've gotten from his posts. Placeholder vote for now. I might not come on before rollover.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Analysis part 2:

17. Bugsy - First post of interest, Bugsy throws a little suspicion Len's way, but simply asks a question rather than votes on him. He also answered Aman's question about how he thought the Inquisitor would play. I don't really see much in the post that's alignment indicative, though I think his point against Len was fair(not saying I'm back to suspecting Len as the Inquisitor, just at the time it was a reasonable question to ask him). He states he's very busy in real life, so he can't be very active. He posts a response to DA's large analysis post explaining that his logic about Arinian couldn't be true, but that he agreed with DA's points against Drake, and votes on him because of that. Also in that post he asks me to explain my "very Real List" of players I suspected, which was fair, considering I voted on him seemingly because of it(it sorta was, sorta wasn't. I just was wondering what he was thinking since he hadn't posted much, though if I'd gone back over his posts and realized how busy he was, I probably would have voted someone else at that point). His last post was in response to Jondesu voting on him, which was directly after the first conversion. If we knew for sure Jon was the first convert, I'd say this points to Bugsy's innocence, but it's not a sure thing, so I don't think we can really use it as evidence. Like I said in my last post, the last time Bugsy was active was like, 4 or 5 days ago. Which would clear him if there was obvious Inquisitor activity, but as it is, he's still a potential suspect. I don't think it's very likely he's the Inquisitor, and I don't think it's particularly likely he's a convert either, because of the complete inactivity, but I do hope he'll come back and play once he gets some free time.
18. Figberts - Not much of interest. Basically purely RP, with a vow to kill the "next person who tries to kill Drought" which resulted in him voting on Hemalurgic Headshot the next Cycle. That is the only time he's voted and he's not voiced any suspicions or posted in the thread for quite a while. If you see this Figberts, could you please add your thoughts about the game and vote somewhere?
19. Mark - Urgh, I don't have the energy to go post by post, but I've got a pretty strong village read on Mark, at least from the early Cycles. So, I don't think he's the Inquisitor, though he may have been converted.
20. Manukos - Hasn't posted very much(5 or 6 short posts in total), although he has been online pretty much throughout I think. I would very much like to hear from him. His thoughts on the game so far, any suspicions, any players he thinks are cleared right now, etc. His lack of posting seems too dangerous to try as the Inquisitor, but I wouldn't totally discount the possibility. Mostly I'd just like for him to post more often.
21. Aonar - Have already gone over him a few times. He's very tough for me to read, is definitely a troll, but Wilson has vouched for him somewhat, so I'm not gonna push for his death or anything. Also, the fact that he was involved with that Hero stuff makes me lean village on him, since he'd be smart enough to realize that attacking Hero right then could lead to extra suspicion on him. So I think he's probably village right now.
22. Ecthelion - Nothing much to say about him. He's the second Snapped player apparently, which all but clears him of being the Inquisitor or one of the 2 converts I think. We should keep an eye on him though, given he's a fairly tempting convert choice based on his 'cleared' status right now.

I'm leaving my vote on Omegaster until I hear more from him or decide my vote is more helpful somewhere else(unlikely, since I'll probably sleep until rollover! ).

Praise the Ja.

[Darkness Ascendant he/him]

Oh yeah guys I'm just going to totally just vote when I haven't really been in captivity or anything and like, I've had time to actually be active here and know what the hell im voting for?! 

Ah storms sorry for the attitude... really crappy day

Edited April 12, 2017 by Darkness Ascendant