A war between Scadrial (era 2) and Roshar

[Argel]

Without knowing the motivation, we don't know how much the Scadrians will take advantage of the obvious edge they have. For example, if Harmony is not happy about it then the Kandra will either be off the table or working to subvert the war effort. On the other hand, if Harmony thinks Team Odium is making a play to shatter him, then Harmony might be pushing for every advantage he can get. Maybe even Marsh decides to step into the fray.

 

It also factors into how prisoners are treated, if conditional surrenders are an option and how favorable they are (the more favorable the more likely a couple decisive battles may be all that is needed to win the war for Scadrial).

 

Think about Vietnam -- that was about reducing the West's willingness to fight enough to them to withdraw. Also an example where superior technology did not win the war.

 

If Scadrial is invading Roshar with no clear motivation then Roshar has a chance to push them back since they do have a clear reason to fight.

[Voidus]

Without knowing the motivation, we don't know how much the Scadrians will take advantage of the obvious edge they have. For example, if Harmony is not happy about it then the Kandra will either be off the table or working to subvert the war effort. On the other hand, if Harmony thinks Team Odium is making a play to shatter him, then Harmony might be pushing for every advantage he can get. Maybe even Marsh decides to step into the fray.

 

It also factors into how prisoners are treated, if conditional surrenders are an option and how favorable they are (the more favorable the more likely a couple decisive battles may be all that is needed to win the war for Scadrial).

 

Think about Vietnam -- that was about reducing the West's willingness to fight enough to them to withdraw. Also an example where superior technology did not win the war.

 

If Scadrial is invading Roshar with no clear motivation then Roshar has a chance to push them back since they do have a clear reason to fight.

Oh that I agree with, arguing on their lack of motivation as a potential affect on the war, you just can't use it to say 'so they wouldn't go to war'

[Argel]

Ah, gotcha! Agreed on that point. This did get me thinking though. Who is more likely to employ Sun Tzu Art of War/Guerilla warfare style tactics, and I would say the Scadrial history and magic systems all favor them. If Scadrial is serious, I think it would be a quick war, and I think people are overestimating the size of the army the Scadrials would need.

[Voidus]

Ah, gotcha! Agreed on that point. This did get me thinking though. Who is more likely to employ Sun Tzu Art of War/Guerilla warfare style tactics, and I would say the Scadrial history and magic systems all favor them. If Scadrial is serious, I think it would be a quick war, and I think people are overestimating the size of the army the Scadrials would need.

There's a few people who could do it pretty much single-handedly tbh. TLR, Marsh or the Survivor probably could kill the entire Rosharan army without much trouble. Melaan could give the bands to anyone on the planet and get them to take care of it. Or any of the Kandra could just eat a Highprince or the king and send them all to war with themselves til they destroy each other.

[Argel]

Or any of the Kandra could just eat a Highprince or the king and send them all to war with themselves til they destroy each other.

 

Well, that brings several thoughts to mind (in the context of this thread):

1. Why waste time when the Alethi are doing it to themselves already? Impatience?
2. The Kandra on Roshar was somehow involved with Szeth
3. The Kandra on Roshar is Sadeas or his wife.

[IndigoAjah]

If Odium is Trell (one of the candidates), could the Kandra be working with Odium? Could it be Bleeder?

 

EDIT: Realised it would be too soon for Bleeder, sorry

Edited April 7, 2016 by IndigoAjah

[Pathfinder]

In your scenario, has Odium already taken over all of Roshar? If not, then why attack the non-Odium factions?

The point I was making, is that trying to figure out the why Scadrial would or would not attack Roshar is utterly all conjecture. During the AoL portion, Scadrial does not know Roshar even exists nor do we know the state of Roshar at that time.  So we have nothing to draw upon to give an accurate idea of what could or could not lead to a war between the two. The only thing we do know is:

 

Harmony is fighting to hold off an outside influence, which has sent agents to subvert the government, and bring down the society. Upon that not succeeding, this entity has decided to wipe out all life on Scadrial.

 

How, in any shape or form, is that not a declaration of war? Harmony is

 

currently actively fighting to check the power of another shard, whatever that shard may be. He is checking it enough, that minions need to be employed. To which harmony has sent minions to counter in kandra and Wax and Wayne. So then why would it be so far fetched that this entity would seek to use a weapon or army to follow through with what it said in the books?  

 

Why is it so far fetched to think that Scadrial wouldn't just roll over and let it, or fight a purely defensive war? Given all the aggressor has done, it is as you mentioned, standard Sun Tzu tactics to begin mounting an offensive. 

 

The whole reason I mentioned Odium ruling Roshar, is as of AoL we have no idea what the result of the everstorm is. It could have changed every parshendi everywhere on the planet resulting in a coordinated revolt in the millions. This would not be the first time an entire planet of people were nearly wiped out in a story to somehow restart later on (cough mistborn cough). So as far as we know, the humans of Roshar could almost be completely wiped out and the war is actually with Odium and voidbringers. That is most certainly a reason to go to war. To save other humans, and stop a force bent on cosmeric domination.

 

So once again, we have no idea what either side's motivations, economy, society, or state would be in this war concept. Which is why I agree with Voidus, we should focus on the practical aspects of two armies going toe to toe, rather than if they would at all. 

 

edit: sorry if this sound condescending, but it is like having a thread say "who would win, kaladin or vin?" and then someone say "well I cannot think of a reason they would fight, as they are both good people and have no motivation to want to kill each other". It doesn't answer the question, just negates the question to begin with. 

Edited April 7, 2016 by Pathfinder

[Argel]

A declaration of war between shards is very different than Scadrial vs. Roshar, and probably worthy of a new thread.

 

Edit: To be clear, barring a very quick victory, motivations matter. It's easier to ask about a person vs. person battle because of the smaller scale and assumed shorter time frame. Wars tend to stretch out much longer, and morale,logistics, etc. are all factors, especially they longer they go, making scenarios like this too contrived. Also, the OP was Elendel vs. Alethkar, and a suggested motivation was freeing slaves. I also mentioned that Scadrial is the clear winner in this contrived scenario a couple pages back. We've been on tangents for a while now.

Edited April 7, 2016 by Argel

[Pathfinder]

A declaration of war between shards is very different than Scadrial vs. Roshar, and probably worthy of a new thread.

 

Edit: To be clear, barring a very quick victory, motivations matter. It's easier to ask about a person vs. person battle because of the smaller scale and assumed shorter time frame. Wars tend to stretch out much longer, and morale,logistics, etc. are all factors, especially they longer they go, making scenarios like this too contrived. Also, the OP was Elendel vs. Alethkar, and a suggested motivation was freeing slaves. I also mentioned that Scadrial is the clear winner in this contrived scenario a couple pages back. We've been on tangents for a while now.

Not when as you said, Harmony and potentially Odium are very much involved in the worlds, but I agree that discussion is more appropriate for another thread.

 

Regarding your edit, in the end I believe we will just have to agree to disagree. For the record the original post said:

 

So, I'll start this with how this would happen.

 

For simplicity, lets say this conflict takes place between Alethkar and Elendel, with none of the other factions coming into play.

 

Elendel's people (at least the North) have a great hatred towards slavery, due to TLR's oppression, and many religious figures fighting slavery and oppression. Alethkar has widespread use of slavery, a caste system similar to nobles and skaa, and pretty corrupt/terrible leaders, so it's not to hard to imagine one of these nations going at the others throat.

 

Who do you think would win?

 

I took that to mean, "hey here is a scenario I came up with in my head. Given the things we know, it isn't totally far fetched. So if this did occur, who would win?". If the OP meant otherwise then I misunderstood. 

[Rich2244]

I haven't read every post yet so please let me know if this has already been covered.

I don't have a book to reference right now but I remember it being said that Wax is only the third crasher in history to survive to adulthood/ get noticed, following that there are 16 metals so 16 squared types of twinborn including compounders assuming every combination is equally likely, using the atium mistings snapping from mistborn era 1 to back that up, exactly 1/16 of the population that snapped, that makes 768 twinborn. Of which 48 are compounders of various forms. In living history of Elendel, judging by that I think maybe 50 being in combat worthy condition would be generous. If you add Marsh, I'm not gonna count the bands as they are 

 

SPOILERS

 

As of the end of BoM in the possession of Harmony who in my mind would be unable to intervene according to the situation specified by OP, he is not of Elendel, more of a planetary God.

Then add any Mistings / Ferrings I'm guessing 16 times as many of each as twinborn in living memory then 1/15 combat worthy at present would be around 1600 total. 

If we compare that to Alethkar in terms of magic who have, correct me if I'm wrong about 25-40 blades and sets of Plate. Plus Navani's new era of fabrials and then several Knights Radiant.

Remembering that these are industrial era guns, basic low calibre revolvers, low calibre bolt action rifles and double barrelled shotguns essentially, I saw no mention of artillery, or any explosives past dynamite in Elendel, Ettmetal and airships were Southerner tech. Gatling guns I assume we're around but I didn't see them mentioned. Guns generally at that point in history weren't exactly reliable or accurate, if we assume Ranette hasn't been mass producing Sterrions or similar weapons then the firearms only advantage over longbows/ crossbows is the lack of training required to be proficient. Training which Alethkar has in Abundance. 

If we then add Elendel having no evidence of a professional army I think end of era 2 Scadrial is actually one of the weakest points in its history in terms of military strength. While end of WoR Alethkar is ramping up rapidly. Honestly I think this is fairly heavily in Roshars favour.

Assuming shardplate is as strong as I believe it to be, I know I've spoken to a few of you about that in other threads and while I've argued my case for its strength many others have argued that it's significantly weaker than I think and honestly without more material or clarification from WoB I'm not sure it's possible to decide one way or the other with certainty.

My thoughts on shardplate against normal Scadrial calibre bullets is that they would be almost negligible unless they hit a crack similar to arrows in WoK and WoR.

 

[asterion137]

1 hour ago, Rich2244 said:

I haven't read every post yet so please let me know if this has already been covered.

I don't have a book to reference right now but I remember it being said that Wax is only the third crasher in history to survive to adulthood/ get noticed, following that there are 16 metals so 16 squared types of twinborn including compounders assuming every combination is equally likely, using the atium mistings snapping from mistborn era 1 to back that up, exactly 1/16 of the population that snapped, that makes 768 twinborn. Of which 48 are compounders of various forms. In living history of Elendel, judging by that I think maybe 50 being in combat worthy condition would be generous. If you add Marsh, I'm not gonna count the bands as they are 

 

SPOILERS

 

As of the end of BoM in the possession of Harmony who in my mind would be unable to intervene according to the situation specified by OP, he is not of Elendel, more of a planetary God.

Then add any Mistings / Ferrings I'm guessing 16 times as many of each as twinborn in living memory then 1/15 combat worthy at present would be around 1600 total. 

If we compare that to Alethkar in terms of magic who have, correct me if I'm wrong about 25-40 blades and sets of Plate. Plus Navani's new era of fabrials and then several Knights Radiant.

Remembering that these are industrial era guns, basic low calibre revolvers, low calibre bolt action rifles and double barrelled shotguns essentially, I saw no mention of artillery, or any explosives past dynamite in Elendel, Ettmetal and airships were Southerner tech. Gatling guns I assume we're around but I didn't see them mentioned. Guns generally at that point in history weren't exactly reliable or accurate, if we assume Ranette hasn't been mass producing Sterrions or similar weapons then the firearms only advantage over longbows/ crossbows is the lack of training required to be proficient. Training which Alethkar has in Abundance. 

If we then add Elendel having no evidence of a professional army I think end of era 2 Scadrial is actually one of the weakest points in its history in terms of military strength. While end of WoR Alethkar is ramping up rapidly. Honestly I think this is fairly heavily in Roshars favour.

Assuming shardplate is as strong as I believe it to be, I know I've spoken to a few of you about that in other threads and while I've argued my case for its strength many others have argued that it's significantly weaker than I think and honestly without more material or clarification from WoB I'm not sure it's possible to decide one way or the other with certainty.

My thoughts on shardplate against normal Scadrial calibre bullets is that they would be almost negligible unless they hit a crack similar to arrows in WoK and WoR.

 

bullets>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>arrows.

a longbow has an fps of 150

a civil war rifle has an fps of 900

lots of people have access to guns. There are 0 gun regulations and each house has the industrial capacity to produce thousands in a month. Add that to the fact that nearly everyone in the Roughs would have access to a gun and each person with a gun is worth five alethi, and this conflict becomes lopsided indeed. Scadrians have access to cannons. They even have a ship with cannons now. Scadrians have a lot more than 1500 mistings. Remember, roughly 16% of the original populations of the Elendel Basin would have had allomancy from before the Final Ascension. Even if the number of Allomancers have regressed each year, we're looking at at least one in 50 scadrians as useful allomancers (rioters, soothers, coinshots, lurchers, tineyes, thugs), meaning that the number of allomancers is going to be closer to a million than 1500.

[Rich2244]

15 hours ago, asterion137 said:

bullets>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>arrows.

a longbow has an fps of 150

a civil war rifle has an fps of 900

lots of people have access to guns. There are 0 gun regulations and each house has the industrial capacity to produce thousands in a month. Add that to the fact that nearly everyone in the Roughs would have access to a gun and each person with a gun is worth five alethi, and this conflict becomes lopsided indeed. Scadrians have access to cannons. They even have a ship with cannons now. Scadrians have a lot more than 1500 mistings. Remember, roughly 16% of the original populations of the Elendel Basin would have had allomancy from before the Final Ascension. Even if the number of Allomancers have regressed each year, we're looking at at least one in 50 scadrians as useful allomancers (rioters, soothers, coinshots, lurchers, tineyes, thugs), meaning that the number of allomancers is going to be closer to a million than 1500.

I didn't say bullets were equal to arrows I said I thought that they would both be ineffective against shardplate unless the hit a crack.

The rough a have absolutely nothing to do with an Elendel vs Alethkar conflict

Giving everyone a gun is just plain stupid, chances are a large proportion of the population would end up injuring themselves or someone nearby rather than doing anything constructive.

Where does it mention that they have cannons

The airship is Southerner technology, the point in time being used is directly after BoM, Elendel don't have airships or Southerner weapons, medallions ect 

Not 16% of the population 16% of those exposed to the mists that were killing people and every normal person was terrified of. The army was exposed not the population. 

Second era mistborn is 350 years after first era give or take, that's about 17 generations with allomancy getting weaker every generation, that's a significant drop. Enough for mistborn and feruchemists to become extinct is certainly enough to drop a large proportion of misting/Ferrings births.

Where did you get the population of Elendel to be 50 million? And how did you get to the 1 in 50 figure? I explained why I guessed at around 800 mistings you seem to have just plucked a number out of the air.

[Oversleep]

In BoM it's stated that there is one Misting in 1000 people and that Ferrings are even more rare. I trust Khriss on this.

[asterion137]

3 hours ago, Rich2244 said:

I didn't say bullets were equal to arrows I said I thought that they would both be ineffective against shardplate unless the hit a crack.

F=MA 

Average mass of an arrow is 2.3 ounces in the middle ages. Acceleration is 150 fps     F=3.27 newtons

Average mass of a civil war-era winchester 308 was 1.6 ounces. Acceleration 900 fps  F=13.65 newtons

Average mass of a Medieval longsword was 4 pounds. Acceleration of 50 fps (which is EXTREMELY generous) F=30 newtons.

While it takes ten arrows to equal the force output of a guy swinging a sword as hard has he can, it takes just two civil war bullets to do the same. Considering that pretty much everyone is going to be shooting at the big scary guy with a giant sword, i think that each shardbearer will go down in minutes, if not less.

The rough a have absolutely nothing to do with an Elendel vs Alethkar conflict

I assume elendel includes the areas elendel controls. This is a war, and Elendel has full access to the people of the Basin for manpower. 

Giving everyone a gun is just plain stupid, chances are a large proportion of the population would end up injuring themselves or someone nearby rather than doing anything constructive.

they don't need to give everyone guns. This is going to be like the battle of Rorke's Drift. Most likely there are at least fifty thousand firearm-trained people in the Basin (considering there are eight hundred constables in Elendel alone and they are almost certainly heavily outnumbered by armed criminals, armed citizens, and the like) Miles also produces a stick of dynamite. Explosives coupled with emotional allomancy will almost certainly rout the Alethi (especially if the Scadrians mow them down with bullets at the same time)

Where does it mention that they have cannons

The airship is Southerner technology, the point in time being used is directly after BoM, Elendel don't have airships or Southerner weapons, medallions ect 

I wasn't talking about the airship. There's a battleship with cannons advertised in one of the broadsheets. In fact, now that i reread the broadsheet it says there are multiple battleships with cannons on them. Additionally, there are apparently enough cannons in existence that they classify them by projectile size.

Not 16% of the population 16% of those exposed to the mists that were killing people and every normal person was terrified of. The army was exposed not the population. 

In order to survive the people of Scadrial had to have been exposed to the mists because the only ones who survived were the people in the caves.

Second era mistborn is 350 years after first era give or take, that's about 17 generations with allomancy getting weaker every generation, that's a significant drop. Enough for mistborn and feruchemists to become extinct is certainly enough to drop a large proportion of misting/Ferrings births.

Where did you get the population of Elendel to be 50 million? And how did you get to the 1 in 50 figure? I explained why I guessed at around 800 mistings you seem to have just plucked a number out of the air.

Elendel has a population of 5 million according to AoL. The Basin is extremely densely populated and is roughly 400 miles in diameter. 50 million is a conservative estimate considering there are dozens of cities in the Basin map. I said 1/50 because it seemed reasonable considering that one in 5 people were allomancers before the Catecendre. In any case oversleep has provided in-book evidence of a completely different number so this is largely irrelevant

 

 

[Oversleep]

1 hour ago, asterion137 said:

I said 1/50 because it seemed reasonable considering that one in 5 people were allomancers before the Catecendre.

Wait, where are getting this from?

In Final Empire era, even among nobles (which have strong Allomantic blood) Allomancy is quite rare, while Mistborns are even rarer. One in five isn't rare at all.
Among noble-blooded skaa, there is one Misting in 10 000, while Mistborns... half-blooded Mistborns... there were only two, among which one was a Chosen One of a Shard, so I'm not sure it counts

If you're implying that that 'one in five' is those 16% of mistfallen, I'm not sure their heritage counts much - they didn't Snap normally, they had to be additionaly prodded by the mists. So their blood was very weak.

Anyway, this still doesn't mean much, as most of the noble blood Mistborns and Mistings died during House War or at hands of Vin. Then there were kolosses and volcanoes and whatever else Ruin threw at them while trying to end the world. As for the mistfallen, most of them died shortly after Snapping be it in battle or defending the Homeland.

Mixing of the noble and skaa blood of course evened out the chance of Allomancy between those bloodlines, but there was also mixing with Feruchemical bloodlines which could (as this is not confirmed) lower the chance of those born with Allomancy. I'm saying could, because we don't know whether Allomancy chance got lower or simply interference caused the dying out of Mistborns and fracturing of Feruchemical powers. I suspect it lowered the chance, but mixing of the noble blood evened that out.

[asterion137]

4 hours ago, Oversleep said:

Wait, where are getting this from?

In Final Empire era, even among nobles (which have strong Allomantic blood) Allomancy is quite rare, while Mistborns are even rarer. One in five isn't rare at all.
Among noble-blooded skaa, there is one Misting in 10 000, while Mistborns... half-blooded Mistborns... there were only two, among which one was a Chosen One of a Shard, so I'm not sure it counts

If you're implying that that 'one in five' is those 16% of mistfallen, I'm not sure their heritage counts much - they didn't Snap normally, they had to be additionaly prodded by the mists. So their blood was very weak.

Anyway, this still doesn't mean much, as most of the noble blood Mistborns and Mistings died during House War or at hands of Vin. Then there were kolosses and volcanoes and whatever else Ruin threw at them while trying to end the world. As for the mistfallen, most of them died shortly after Snapping be it in battle or defending the Homeland.

Mixing of the noble and skaa blood of course evened out the chance of Allomancy between those bloodlines, but there was also mixing with Feruchemical bloodlines which could (as this is not confirmed) lower the chance of those born with Allomancy. I'm saying could, because we don't know whether Allomancy chance got lower or simply interference caused the dying out of Mistborns and fracturing of Feruchemical powers. I suspect it lowered the chance, but mixing of the noble blood evened that out.

Gemmel was a skaa mistborn too IIRC. Vin was chosen because she was mistborn, not the other way around. That is stated in HoA i think. I'm pretty sure that those who became mistfallen would have been able to pass on allomantic heritage just as well as noble families did. After all, they both recieved their allomancy directly from preservation's power. I'm not sure what you mean by "snapped normally". The way I read it, it seemed like the mists just put the mistfallen through extreme stress in order to make them Snap after giving them powers. Seems just as normal as any other stressful event imo.

[Oversleep]

7 hours ago, asterion137 said:

Gemmel was a skaa mistborn too IIRC. Vin was chosen because she was mistborn, not the other way around. That is stated in HoA i think. I'm pretty sure that those who became mistfallen would have been able to pass on allomantic heritage just as well as noble families did. After all, they both recieved their allomancy directly from preservation's power. I'm not sure what you mean by "snapped normally". The way I read it, it seemed like the mists just put the mistfallen through extreme stress in order to make them Snap after giving them powers. Seems just as normal as any other stressful event imo.

He was? I always assumed that when Kelsier said he met only one skaa Mistborn in his life he meant himself (as a joke). As for Vin, Sazed says that Ruin chose her because of the insane mother + Seeker sister + Mistborn target combo, but that there were other reasons Ruin didn't know about (I took that to mean the fact that she was chosen by Preservation).

I'm not saying mistfallen cannot pass on heritage, I'm saying their heritage is weaker. All of the mistfallen were people who didn't Snap due to extreme stress (i.e. the normal way).
I'm not saying that mists were targeting them specifically; if there were a Misting who would Snap due to the beating but the beating didn't occure yet, mists would Snap him as well. But all of the mistfallen were people who surely had their healthy dose of trauma already and didn't Snap. Mists had to artificially induce longer and deeper trauma in order for them to Snap. I'm not sure what it says about their ability to pass on these abilities, but their Allomantic blood was weaker than blood of those who didn't need mists to Snap.

But most of them died anyway. The whole Catacendre and what preceded it made very many Allomancers die.

[asterion137]

3 hours ago, Oversleep said:

He was? I always assumed that when Kelsier said he met only one skaa Mistborn in his life he meant himself (as a joke). As for Vin, Sazed says that Ruin chose her because of the insane mother + Seeker sister + Mistborn target combo, but that there were other reasons Ruin didn't know about (I took that to mean the fact that she was chosen by Preservation).

I'm not saying mistfallen cannot pass on heritage, I'm saying their heritage is weaker. All of the mistfallen were people who didn't Snap due to extreme stress (i.e. the normal way).
I'm not saying that mists were targeting them specifically; if there were a Misting who would Snap due to the beating but the beating didn't occure yet, mists would Snap him as well. But all of the mistfallen were people who surely had their healthy dose of trauma already and didn't Snap. Mists had to artificially induce longer and deeper trauma in order for them to Snap. I'm not sure what it says about their ability to pass on these abilities, but their Allomantic blood was weaker than blood of those who didn't need mists to Snap.

But most of them died anyway. The whole Catacendre and what preceded it made very many Allomancers die.

Kelsier said that he had to learn allomancy from Gemmel unless he wanted to start taking lessons from a nobleman or something like that

I'm not sure how being snapped by the mists would create a weaker bloodline. Snapping doesn't change the genes, does it?

A statistically appropriate number of mistfallen died. The Founders still would have been 16% mistfallen (maybe a little less because of the deaths) because to survive they had to walk in the mists at least a little bit in order to reach the storage caverns.

[Jondesu]

It's not that the mistfallen had weaker genes due to being snapped by the mists, but that ska have weaker Allomantic genes in the first place. Note that even though the bloodlines had mixed a good bit by the events in the books, there were still no skaa Allomancers that we know of that weren't a result of a noble father taking a skaa woman.

jW

[asterion137]

1 hour ago, Jondesu said:

It's not that the mistfallen had weaker genes due to being snapped by the mists, but that ska have weaker Allomantic genes in the first place. Note that even though the bloodlines had mixed a good bit by the events in the books, there were still no skaa Allomancers that we know of that weren't a result of a noble father taking a skaa woman.

jW

but wouldn't getting allomantic powers from the mists produce the same effect as being descended from a noble line? They seem to have a similar magnitude of power and get it from the same source in different forms

[Jondesu]

14 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

but wouldn't getting allomantic powers from the mists produce the same effect as being descended from a noble line? They seem to have a similar magnitude of power and get it from the same source in different forms

The mists didn't give allomantic power. They simply snapped people that hadn't or wouldn't have otherwise.

jW

[Oversleep]

Okay, I know how to put it (IIRC it's an explanation Brandon used himself): Let's say that we have people with different percentages of Allomantic powers. People who are at 40% or above Snap due to normal (extreme stress) situations. Skaa Mistings are 50%, noble Mistings are 65%, most Mistborns are 80%, Vin is 100% (Elend probably was around 200%). Note that it doesn't translate to relative strengths of Allomancy (at least, not much. I have yet to formulate a proper theory on this).

Mistfallen were people at 30% - they hadn't Snapped when exposed to normal trauma. But mists were set to Snap whoever they could, that's why they induced a much more extreme trauma to get that bit of Preservation out. (There was also something about adding a little Investiture, I think. I'm not sure)

So their heritage was 30%; if mists affected that, it's 40% now.

[Rich2244]

asterion137, you replied in quote and I'm not sure how to quote a quote, if you even can but I do take issue with a couple of the things you said. 

Ill take your word for the broadsheets, I read on a kindle and the broadsheets are generally too small for me to read. So that clarifies that, are there any mentions of an actual Military though, armed police aren't soldiers. 

I can't check your maths, you used a bastardisation of units, metric newtons but imperial for the rest, and you used speed not acceleration, you also compared it to a longsword, another weapon that is similarly ineffective against shardplate, if you compare that to the impact of a mace or warhammer, something that we know will eventually break through plate, though will take an exceptionally long time  you get different results that back bullets being ineffective.

A mace for example weighed around 3kg with the vast majority of that centered at the end, a swing with the arm moving around from behind or to the side including stepping into the strike from a trained soldier or parshendi maybe 0.5 seconds for the whole swing, a arm of maybe 1m length with a mace around 1m long the speed of that mace is the diameter of an arc approx 180 degrees, about 6.5m plus the length of a step in from a soldier about 1.5m. Which does indeed give 16mps. Assuming that the user is trained we would have an impact of around 0.1s then a rebound at half the speed of the swing, that gives us a deceleration of 240mpsps multiplied by the mass of 3kg we have a 720N strike.

Compared to your arrow, 2.3 ounces 150fps, converted that's about 0.065 kg and 50 mps or the bullet 1.6 ounces 900fps converted again gives 0.045 kg and 300mps. This time it's a bit harder we can use a single impact, with maybe a 10% rebound if we are generous to simplify.

That will give 35.75N for the arrow or 145N for the bullet. We know a single strike from a mace does relatively little damage but a large number eventually wears shardplate down given that a bullet is around 1/5 the force of a mace. But just because it is 1/5 of the force does not mean it will do 1/5 the damage, it will do far less that that.

So yes a bullet is more powerful than an arrow but o still don't see it being a significant threat.

And lastly yes Elendel controls the basin, kind of, the outer cities were about to rebel in BoM and that never got dealt with, only the set were weakened. The revolt they were setting in motion wasn't pacified though I will concede that with the southerners appearing that might become less of an issue. But the roughs are outside of the basin, away from Elendels control.

 

 

Edited June 20, 2016 by Rich2244

[Pathfinder]

23 hours ago, Oversleep said:

Okay, I know how to put it (IIRC it's an explanation Brandon used himself): Let's say that we have people with different percentages of Allomantic powers. People who are at 40% or above Snap due to normal (extreme stress) situations. Skaa Mistings are 50%, noble Mistings are 65%, most Mistborns are 80%, Vin is 100% (Elend probably was around 200%). Note that it doesn't translate to relative strengths of Allomancy (at least, not much. I have yet to formulate a proper theory on this).

Mistfallen were people at 30% - they hadn't Snapped when exposed to normal trauma. But mists were set to Snap whoever they could, that's why they induced a much more extreme trauma to get that bit of Preservation out. (There was also something about adding a little Investiture, I think. I'm not sure)

So their heritage was 30%; if mists affected that, it's 40% now.

So genuine question, not necessarily trying to prove anything, I am actually asking and would like an answer lol. If the allomantic strength of the individual, would affect the propensity for it coming up in the population and its strength in said population, then why could a Tineye (Straff) with a misting mistress produce a mistborn (Zane)? Yes I know Staff is a noble, but my question is how based on what you state, could two parents with one power each, produce a son with all of the powers?

5 hours ago, Rich2244 said:

asterion137, you replied in quote and I'm not sure how to quote a quote, if you even can but I do take issue with a couple of the things you said. 

Ill take your word for the broadsheets, I read on a kindle and the broadsheets are generally too small for me to read. So that clarifies that, are there any mentions of an actual Military though, armed police aren't soldiers. 

I can't check your maths, you used a bastardisation of units, metric newtons but imperial for the rest, and you used speed not acceleration, you also compared it to a longsword, another weapon that is similarly ineffective against shardplate, if you compare that to the impact of a mace or warhammer, something that we know will eventually break through plate, though will take an exceptionally long time  you get different results that back bullets being ineffective.

A mace for example weighed around 3kg with the vast majority of that centered at the end, a swing with the arm moving around from behind or to the side including stepping into the strike from a trained soldier or parshendi maybe 0.5 seconds for the whole swing, a arm of maybe 1m length with a mace around 1m long the speed of that mace is the diameter of an arc approx 180 degrees, about 6.5m plus the length of a step in from a soldier about 1.5m. Which does indeed give 16mps. Assuming that the user is trained we would have an impact of around 0.1s then a rebound at half the speed of the swing, that gives us a deceleration of 240mpsps multiplied by the mass of 3kg we have a 720N strike.

Compared to your arrow, 2.3 ounces 150fps, converted that's about 0.065 kg and 50 mps or the bullet 1.6 ounces 900fps converted again gives 0.045 kg and 300mps. This time it's a bit harder we can use a single impact, with maybe a 10% rebound if we are generous to simplify.

That will give 35.75N for the arrow or 145N for the bullet. We know a single strike from a mace does relatively little damage but a large number eventually wears shardplate down given that a bullet is around 1/5 the force of a mace. But just because it is 1/5 of the force does not mean it will do 1/5 the damage, it will do far less that that.

So yes a bullet is more powerful than an arrow but o still don't see it being a significant threat.

And lastly yes Elendel controls the basin, kind of, the outer cities were about to rebel in BoM and that never got dealt with, only the set were weakened. The revolt they were setting in motion wasn't pacified though I will concede that with the southerners appearing that might become less of an issue. But the roughs are outside of the basin, away from Elendels control.

 

 

If you are discounting the roughs due to political/chronological limits, then due to the Everstorm, the Alethi armies could be devastated and be unable to field an army of any sort (the damaging forces of the storm itself, and the potential rise of the voidbringers). I believe I mentioned this earlier in the thread, or another thread. So Elendel may not have the Roughs, but Roshar may not have an organized army at all. 

[asterion137]

5 hours ago, Rich2244 said:

asterion137, you replied in quote and I'm not sure how to quote a quote, if you even can but I do take issue with a couple of the things you said. 

Ill take your word for the broadsheets, I read on a kindle and the broadsheets are generally too small for me to read. So that clarifies that, are there any mentions of an actual Military though, armed police aren't soldiers. 

I can't check your maths, you used a bastardisation of units, metric newtons but imperial for the rest, and you used speed not acceleration, you also compared it to a longsword, another weapon that is similarly ineffective against shardplate, if you compare that to the impact of a mace or warhammer, something that we know will eventually break through plate, though will take an exceptionally long time  you get different results that back bullets being ineffective.

A mace for example weighed around 3kg with the vast majority of that centered at the end, a swing with the arm moving around from behind or to the side including stepping into the strike from a trained soldier or parshendi maybe 0.5 seconds for the whole swing, a arm of maybe 1m length with a mace around 1m long the speed of that mace is the diameter of an arc approx 180 degrees, about 6.5m plus the length of a step in from a soldier about 1.5m. Which does indeed give 16mps. Assuming that the user is trained we would have an impact of around 0.1s then a rebound at half the speed of the swing, that gives us a deceleration of 240mpsps multiplied by the mass of 3kg we have a 720N strike.

Compared to your arrow, 2.3 ounces 150fps, converted that's about 0.065 kg and 50 mps or the bullet 1.6 ounces 900fps converted again gives 0.045 kg and 300mps. This time it's a bit harder we can use a single impact, with maybe a 10% rebound if we are generous to simplify.

That will give 35.75N for the arrow or 145N for the bullet. We know a single strike from a mace does relatively little damage but a large number eventually wears shardplate down given that a bullet is around 1/5 the force of a mace. But just because it is 1/5 of the force does not mean it will do 1/5 the damage, it will do far less that that.

So yes a bullet is more powerful than an arrow but o still don't see it being a significant threat.

And lastly yes Elendel controls the basin, kind of, the outer cities were about to rebel in BoM and that never got dealt with, only the set were weakened. The revolt they were setting in motion wasn't pacified though I will concede that with the southerners appearing that might become less of an issue. But the roughs are outside of the basin, away from Elendels control.

 

 

30-40 bullets might seem like a lot, but when there are coinshots doubling the strength of every bullet and a single bullet that hits the eyehole will kill, the bullets will add up very quickly. Besides, if the shardbearers become a real threat, Elendel could just send Wax&Wayne to kill them all in an hour or less. They're basically anti-shardbearers with Wax's ability to shoot Shardplate eyeholes, Wayne's speed bubbles to get them in and out fast, and Wax's giant shotgun just to top it off

Alethkar isn't exactly the epitome of unity either. Besides, their threatening armies, shardbearers, and radiants are technically not even in alethkar at the moment, so technically they should only get their in-alethkar fodder armies.