Long Game 17: Heronfall

[STINK he/him]

Well now, Hellscythe.

[Kynedath]

Why would the eliminators not kill anybody?

[STINK he/him]

Because maybe the last eliminator left was on the mission.

[Clanky he/him]

So reasons for there not being a traitor kill:

 

1: All traitors were on the mission so none of them could send the order in for the kill.

 

2: All traitors were on mission or were inactive (Shallan) and couldn't send in the kill

 

3: Forgot to make kill

 

4: Didn't make one on purpose 

 

So further thoughts:

 

1: Players on the mission were Lopen, HS, phatt and STINK, assuming we have three players left that would mean only one of those players would be innocent. I am inclined to trust STINK and Lopen for their roles in the deaths of Arraenae and Ada respectively so I doubt this is the case but if there are only two traitors left HS and Phatt being the final to could be reasonable if not for the fact that phatt was the one who made the team with them both on it. 

 

2: Same as 1 except with three players I don't see it making sense again but if there were only two players I could see Shallan and HS as the remaining two traitors especially given HS calling for us not to kill inactives.

 

3: This may be the most likely case where a traitor may have been on the mission and anohte/ the others weren't active during the second half of the night so couldn't put in the order.

 

4: Anyone have thoughts on why they would do this? Maybe to cast suspicion on players on the mission would be my best bet.

 

In most of theses cases I see HellScythe as fitting best as a traitor in most of these cases

 

EDIT: Colour

Edited March 3, 2016 by Clanky

[Curious Anamaximder he/him]

Yeah, I agree with Stink. Hellscythe.

[Kynedath]

Jeez, bandwagon much. Then again, I don't have that much of a choice. I don't stand a chance defending them alone, and I really don't have a reason too. Hesitant Hellscythe.

[STINK he/him]

Well now that people are bandwagoning, I feel like I have to put in why I also did it, that being that Ada supposedly scanned HS as being innocent, and I always wondered why he scanned HS.

[Hellscythe he/him]

First off, 3 eliminators out of 21 people is beyond ridiculous and the possibility of me being evil and by myself is next to nothing. It's quite painfully obvious from my point of view that there was purposefully no kill.

 

I'd guess there's either 4 or 5 eliminators total, which means out of the 9 of us left there's either 2 or 3 left.

 

This means it is either 

2 vs. 7     or

3 vs. 6

 

Now in order for the evil team to win all they need to do is get us down to 3 players so that we can no longer continue on the missions. If they killed last night they could've gotten the numbers down to 2 vs. 6 or 3 vs. 5 and the possibility of one of them dying to the lynch the next day. However by leading the lynch onto me they can reduce it to the same numbers without having to kill anyone and reducing the possibility of one of them dying to nothing. So instead of a possible 1 vs. 6 or 2 vs. 5 they secured a solid 2 vs. 6 or 3 vs. 5.

Now all the evil team has to do is have 1 person on the mission and 1 person to make a kill and they've already won in the 3 vs. 5 scenario. In the 2 vs. 6 they'll have it down to 2 vs. 4 or 2 vs. 5 and all they need to do is mislead one more lynch. (Which you already seem to have pointed out Shallan as the next mislynch)

 

It's becoming obvious that there's no village hacker otherwise we'd already have the game figured out. Good luck to you guys. I suppose we still have a small chance of winning.

[Clanky he/him]

Could we please get some more discussion besides "yep let's kill HS" I understand that he may be most likely to be a traitor but there are other options. I wouldn't be surprised if we had a team of something like Shallan and Anamximinder since shallans inactive and Anamax has been known to forget about these games from time to time which could explain why we had no kill.

 

Also we have STINKs consistent statements about not wanting to be part of a mission and then once he is included in a mission we have no kill. Maybe he doesn't want to be part of the missions because his last other teammate is inactive and can't send in the kills? 

[STINK he/him]

Well I would be fine switching it to you, Clanky.

[Clanky he/him]

Well I would be fine switching it to you, Clanky.

I'm not saying to switch votes I'm just asking for more discussion on the game. 

 

In case you haven't noticed we've had 4 votes for HS and only two of them say anything other than"cool lets kill HS" Theres other stuff that we can talk about and I don't want this whole cycle to be wasted waiting for HS to die. If we have done more discussion maybe we can actually have other leads to go on if HS ends up innocent.

[Kynedath]

You have a point. Hellscythe Clanky. Why have you said, "let's not kill hellscythe, we need to talk about more and then not retract your vote from HS? And what if you are trying to protect Hellscythe from a lynch because they are your teammate . . . eliminator teammate.

[Clanky he/him]

You have a point. Hellscythe Clanky. Why have you said, "let's not kill hellscythe, we need to talk about more and then not retract your vote from HS? And what if you are trying to protect Hellscythe from a lynch because they are your teammate . . . eliminator teammate.

Because that is exactly what I didn't say? I said can we have some discussion other than just half sentences voting for HS without any other discussion. I left my vote on HS because that is who I'm most suspicious of. I'm just worried about the same thing happening as last turn where the lynch on Luna was set after a few hours and we got no other discussion for the rest of the cycle.

 

Since everyone seems to agree that HS is most likely a traitor who do you think the other members of the team are? Why do you think they didn't make a kill if they weren't all part of the mission? Those are things that can still be discussed.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Hey guys, do you think I should reveal my Hacker contact? I don't have time for much right now, but I thought I'd ask this so you guys can give your thoughts on the subject. All I'll say is that none of the players they've scanned are still alive, and they also "forgot" to scan someone on one Night Turn. I think you guys could probably guess who it is anyways, and if they aren't a Traitor(I'm kinda thinking they are, especially with LUNA being a Loyal Data Gatherer, but I'm not sure), the Traitors could probably guess their identity.

 

They scanned Ada as Loyal right when I was going after him, which means they are either a Traitor, or the Traitors have False Trails.

 

Clanky, I don't really agree that Hellscythe is most likely a Traitor. Purposefully not sending in a kill would make sense at this point in the game. There's 4 players on a mission. The other 5 are not. If there is a death at all, we'd be that much closer to figuring out who's a Traitor. The Loyal players on the mission would have a 1 out of 2 chance of catching a Traitor, and a Loyal player not on the mission would have a 1 out of 3 chance, so it's definitely a viable plan of action for the Traitors.

[Clanky he/him]

Hey guys, do you think I should reveal my Hacker contact? I don't have time for much right now, but I thought I'd ask this so you guys can give your thoughts on the subject. All I'll say is that none of the players they've scanned are still alive, and they also "forgot" to scan someone on one Night Turn. I think you guys could probably guess who it is anyways, and if they aren't a Traitor(I'm kinda thinking they are, especially with LUNA being a Loyal Data Gatherer, but I'm not sure), the Traitors could probably guess their identity.

 

They scanned Ada as Loyal right when I was going after him, which means they are either a Traitor, or the Traitors have False Trails.

 

Clanky, I don't really agree that Hellscythe is most likely a Traitor. Purposefully not sending in a kill would make sense at this point in the game. There's 4 players on a mission. The other 5 are not. If there is a death at all, we'd be that much closer to figuring out who's a Traitor. The Loyal players on the mission would have a 1 out of 2 chance of catching a Traitor, and a Loyal player not on the mission would have a 1 out of 3 chance, so it's definitely a viable plan of action for the Traitors.

 

I think it would probably be worthwhile to to reveal the hacker at this point. I agree that with all the roles that have been revealed it probably wouldn't take much for the traitors to find out.

 

Why don't you think HS is a traitor Lopen?

 

There is most likely more than one traitor out there. If there are two and they are both on the mission I don't expect them to kill anyone on the mission. If neither were on the mission than maybe I would make a kill at that point since people are just taking it for granted that the missions will succeed regardless of whether or no there is a traitor on it. But if I were a traitor and we a player on the mission and one off the mission I would probably go for failing the mission and making a kill. That would lower our numbers by two and everyone else would still be a suspect. So based on no kill I expect both traitors were in one of the groups and decided not to risk drawing suspicion to the group they were part of or there is an inactive on the traitor team so the last active player is trying to avoid suspicion in any way. With the way that HS defended Shallan and was part of the mission makes me think they are both traitors and HS didn't want to reveal himself by failing the mission and there was nobody around to make a kill. 

 

Now I doubt there are 3 traitors left given that the villages victory condition involves us needing 4 living players at the end but if there are then the above paragraph doesn't mean that much except that I would expect them to both fail the mission and use the kill if at all possible because reducing our numbers by two this ate in the game seems like a very worthwhile plan. I think that because of this whomever is making the missions should probably put their most trusted players on the mission to avoid that possibility.

 

Yes I do agree that there are logical reasons for not using the kill at this point other than everyone being on the mission but that isn't my only basis for HS. 

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Here's my view on things right now.

 

9 players left. 4 active players on the mission(Lopen, STINK, Hellscythe, phattemer). 4 active players NOT on the mission(Clanky, Ripple, Kynedath, Anamaximder). 1 inactive(Shallan).

 

I personally believe that STINK and Anamaximder are Loyal. STINK because his involvement with Ada, and Anamaximder because of his role claim on Night 1, as well as his Day 1 vote on Arraenae, as well as the fact that Ada seemed to be trying to lynch him(although I am wary of the fact that Ada has tried to lynch his teammates before, he had already bussed Arraenae because of his reveal to STINK).

 

Like Clanky pointed out, I believe the lack of deaths this Cycle points to there being 2 Traitors either on the mission or off. Since I think STINK is good, and I know I am, that would leave Hellscythe and phatt. However, phatt is the one who picked the players, so I doubt he'd put both him and Hellscythe on there if they were both Traitors.

 

So let's look at the other 4.

 

Kynedath - Voted on Ada when I was trying to lynch him. Went inactive for a while.

 

Anamaximder - Claimed Temporal Displacer to me on Night 1. Probably Loyal.

 

Ripple - My Hacker claimer. She claimed Hacker to me on Night 1.

 

Clanky - Wasn't convinced by me to lynch Ada, or to not lynch BB. Also, something I noticed looking back at the last Night Turn, but Clanky seemed to take for granted that Shallan was gonna die if we put her on the mission. Possible slip-up?

 

So out of those 3 players who I'm not sure about, I think the Traitors are either Clanky and Ripple, or Kynedath and Ripple. Clanky was going after Kynedath a little a Cycle or so ago, and now Kynedath is voting on Clanky, so I don't think they're on the same team. My guess is that Clanky and Ripple are the Traitors. I've got to go for now, and I haven't looked into this any farther than what I've put down on here, but rest assured that I'll be going over every possible piece of evidence to try and figure out if I'm right or not.

[Clanky he/him]

Here's my view on things right now.

 

9 players left. 4 active players on the mission(Lopen, STINK, Hellscythe, phattemer). 4 active players NOT on the mission(Clanky, Ripple, Kynedath, Anamaximder). 1 inactive(Shallan).

 

I personally believe that STINK and Anamaximder are Loyal. STINK because his involvement with Ada, and Anamaximder because of his role claim on Night 1, as well as his Day 1 vote on Arraenae, as well as the fact that Ada seemed to be trying to lynch him(although I am wary of the fact that Ada has tried to lynch his teammates before, he had already bussed Arraenae because of his reveal to STINK).

 

Like Clanky pointed out, I believe the lack of deaths this Cycle points to there being 2 Traitors either on the mission or off. Since I think STINK is good, and I know I am, that would leave Hellscythe and phatt. However, phatt is the one who picked the players, so I doubt he'd put both him and Hellscythe on there if they were both Traitors.

 

So let's look at the other 4.

 

Kynedath - Voted on Ada when I was trying to lynch him. Went inactive for a while.

 

Anamaximder - Claimed Temporal Displacer to me on Night 1. Probably Loyal.

 

Ripple - My Hacker claimer. She claimed Hacker to me on Night 1.

 

Clanky - Wasn't convinced by me to lynch Ada, or to not lynch BB. Also, something I noticed looking back at the last Night Turn, but Clanky seemed to take for granted that Shallan was gonna die if we put her on the mission. Possible slip-up?

 

So out of those 3 players who I'm not sure about, I think the Traitors are either Clanky and Ripple, or Kynedath and Ripple. Clanky was going after Kynedath a little a Cycle or so ago, and now Kynedath is voting on Clanky, so I don't think they're on the same team. My guess is that Clanky and Ripple are the Traitors. I've got to go for now, and I haven't looked into this any farther than what I've put down on here, but rest assured that I'll be going over every possible piece of evidence to try and figure out if I'm right or not.

 

A few things 

 

I was pretty confident that Shallan wouldn't put her action in because she hasn't been on the shard in three weeks. I suppose if she were a traitor the mission would have succeeded with her not being around to place her mission order but either way I'm fairly certain she wouldn't show up for that. 

 

Second yes I wasn't for lynching Ada, I said some things in thread about how I expected him to be playing differently if he were a traitor which apparently was all wrong. I realize also that the PM about Luna and Ada is probably super condemning with the way things ended up going but at the time what I said seemed logical.

 

Also it's very illogical to go about your reasoning for Kyn and I not being taitors together because he is voting for me. If you'll recall MR11 which just happened to have me, Ada and Kyn on it me and Ada were pushing hard to lynch Kyn all game despite us being on the same team. So I wouldn't look too much into that.

 

Could we get a list of the players Ripple scanned and when said scans happened? It would be nice to see if they are logical scans and how soon after the scans those players were killed. 

 

Also Lopen, Do you think that there could be three traitors left? If so do you have any thoughts on who a three player traitor team would be?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

A few things 

 

I was pretty confident that Shallan wouldn't put her action in because she hasn't been on the shard in three weeks. I suppose if she were a traitor the mission would have succeeded with her not being around to place her mission order but either way I'm fairly certain she wouldn't show up for that. 

 

Second yes I wasn't for lynching Ada, I said some things in thread about how I expected him to be playing differently if he were a traitor which apparently was all wrong. I realize also that the PM about Luna and Ada is probably super condemning with the way things ended up going but at the time what I said seemed logical.

 

Also it's very illogical to go about your reasoning for Kyn and I not being taitors together because he is voting for me. If you'll recall MR11 which just happened to have me, Ada and Kyn on it me and Ada were pushing hard to lynch Kyn all game despite us being on the same team. So I wouldn't look too much into that.

 

Could we get a list of the players Ripple scanned and when said scans happened? It would be nice to see if they are logical scans and how soon after the scans those players were killed. 

 

Also Lopen, Do you think that there could be three traitors left? If so do you have any thoughts on who a three player traitor team would be?

 

I was saying that since it was almost certain that Shallan wouldn't show up, it's possible you knew she'd die because of that, meaning that you would be a Traitor. The fact that you didn't suggest the possibility of her surviving is what I'm pointing out.

 

BB messaged me at the start of the Night where he killed Ada, telling me that he was gonna attack Ada, so I thought I'd test you with that PM. As you know, I also did something similar with LUNA(which...I thought might have worked, but she turned out to be Loyal). Your responses weren't really that condemning in my mind. I suck at tricking people, so I didn't really glean that much from that exchange.

 

Yes, I thought about MR11. But this is a different game, with a whole different situation, and in this case, I don't think that you guys would be going after each other if you were both Traitors. You can correct me if I'm wrong though. I'd be fine with that. 

 

Yeah, I've got the time now. Here they are:

 

N1: Mailliw(Loyal)

N2: forgot? - Which could be said to be a point for her, because if she is a Traitor, she could just say that someone is Loyal, since she wouldn't actually have to scan anyone. So we have to decide. Was her "forgetting" to send an order in a Traitor gambit to make us trust her a little? Or did she genuinely forget? Really, I don't know. I don't think she was online much that Night, so I want to believe her, but I have my doubts. It would be nice if she could speak up a little more.

N3: Elbereth(Loyal) - Same Night Elbereth died.

N4: Adavantos(Loyal)

N5: Bridge Boy(Loyal) - Same Night Bridge Boy died.

N6: She hasn't used our code yet, since she hasn't posted yet, so I don't know. She has been online since this Cycle started though, so I'm a little surprised she hasn't said anything.

 

No, I don't think there are 3 Traitors left. A few reasons. Firstly, there was 21 players to begin with. 4 Traitors is about 19% or thereabouts. 5 Traitors is about 23% or maybe a little bit higher. So 4 players would be the first number I would think of. Next, they had an Assassin. That's one extra kill. Not a huge advantage, but that's still something. There's also the chance for deaths by the missions. So I'm guessing that they started with 4, with the other 2 being either False Trails and Well-Connected/No-role, or, another Hacker and Well-Connected.

 

Just so everyone is on the same page, here is what everyone claimed to me. I figure it doesn't really matter since most everyone's role is out there anyways, and I don't know any more good roles that I should hide.

 

Lopen - PM(proven by LUNA)

STINK - Non-Specialist(claimed to me on Night 1, and scanned as such by LUNA)

Ripple - Hacker(claimed to me on Night 1)

Anamaximder - Temporal Displacer(claimed to me on Night 1)

Clanky - Non-Specialist(claimed to me on Night 1, and has volunteered for missions often)

Hellscythe - Non-Specialist(hinted to me on Night 1, as well as scanned by LUNA as such)

Kynedath - Non-Specialist(claimed to me on Night 1, and has volunteered for missions often)

phattemer - never looked at my PM's. Has almost always been on at some point during Night Turns, but rarely even gets online during the Day Turns I believe.

Shallan - never looked at my PM's. Hasn't been online in almost 3 weeks.

 

On Day 3, someone used Well-Connected to move a vote on to STINK(when Arraenae was getting lynched), so that means they used an Action on Night 2. Clanky and Kynedath were both on the mission that Cycle, so they're ruled out of that. Elbereth was Well-Connected, but Night 2 she never got online I don't think, because she was sick and her tablet had no power, so I don't think she could have done it(I remember luckat stating that she couldn't have been STINK's Hacker because she hadn't been online at all on Night 2, when Ada supposedly claimed to STINK and told him he'd scanned Arraenae as a Traitor, so that means she also couldn't be the Well-Connected player that changed a vote that next Day Turn). It also couldn't have been Shallan, because she was inactive a couple days before that Day Turn. I don't think that it could have been phattemer either, since he rarely got on during Day Turns, but I may have to double-check that as well.

 

So it's either Hellscythe, Anamaximder, Ripple or STINK(assuming that none of the 3 players above could have done it). Out of those 4, I doubt it would be Ripple or Anamaximder, since they claimed actual roles, and so would be at more of a risk of being caught in a lie(be it from False Trails or not). That leaves STINK and Hellscythe. Hmmm. But they were both scanned as Non-Specialists by LUNA. Okay, well that makes me think that Ripple might actually be Loyal. If the Traitors have False Trails, that would certainly point to the Loyals having a Hacker I'd think. So now I have to decide if I think either STINK or Hellscythe was lying about their role, or if BOTH of them were lying. Or if Ripple or Anamaximder had the idea to lie to me about their roles. Well, hopefully this causes some discussion. Honestly, I've felt like STINK's claim might be a lie for a while(mainly due to his not wanting to go on missions, but also some gut feeling), but his involvement with Ada seemed like that would point to him being Loyal. It could all have been a ploy though. STINK certainly defended Ada enough in our PM's and in the thread. Hellscythe's inactivity has been frustrating, but he did explain to me, in blue text, that he had some real life stuff going on that took up a lot of his time. That doesn't mean he can't be a Traitor though.

 

What are you guys' thoughts? Do you think STINK and/or Hellscythe is lying about their roles? Or is there an explanation I'm missing?

[STINK he/him]

This is maybe the 6th time you've asked if I'm lying? But I'm not. Ive said too many times now why I don't want to go on missions, but alright, I'll say it again.

I quite like posting and PMing during the night, but the mission doesn't allow that.

Edit: Also if I've been scanned by LUNA, doesn't that confirm that I told the truth?

Edited March 2, 2016 by IrulelikeSTINK

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

This is maybe the 6th time you've asked if I'm lying? But I'm not. Ive said too many times now why I don't want to go on missions, but alright, I'll say it again.

I quite like posting and PMing during the night, but the mission doesn't allow that.

Edit: Also if I've been scanned by LUNA, doesn't that confirm that I told the truth?

 

Yeah, I know. I remember your reasons. Doesn't mean the reasons aren't lies as well. Also, no, you being scanned by LUNA does not confirm, since the Traitors could have False Trails, which makes players appear as "Loyal" to Hackers and "Non-Specialist" to Data-Gatherers. So if you are a False Trails Traitor, or were being protected by False Trails, then you would show up as a Non-Specialist to LUNA's scan. Also, if you were the False Trails role, that would give you reason to not want to go on missions, since you'd want to protect your other teammates. Hellscythe, on the other hand, suggested he stay on the mission after Night 1. I won't say that means you're a Traitor, but those are the facts. You did say you would be okay with going on the mission when luckat was the leader though, I'll give you that(even though she'd already picker her players...just saying). And what's so important about posting and PMing 24 hours more than you would have time to if you did go on a mission? Did you learn anything with that time? I'll admit it's a little boring, but it's only 24 hours, and not something that I would think you'd be that bothered by.

 

I've double checked the facts, and can confirm that Elbereth wasn't the Well-Connected player who moved a vote, and that Shallan was not either. Phattemer was only online for about the first 10 minutes of Night 2, and I know he wasn't online during about the first 36 hours or so of Day 3, so it's unlikely he moved a vote. I only wish I'd done the online times of all the players a little more often. Ah well.

[STINK he/him]

24 hours of PMing and talking, which is quite important, seeing as the Night is 48 hours long and that the mission takes a quarter of the cycle.

I will admit that I volunteered for the Luckat mission because I feared that I would be killed (in hindsight, I realise why they didn't).

Also, volunteering for the mission isn't really an 'inno' thing to do. If you have a team of traitors, it would be a good idea to get one preferably always on the mission, giving them protection from the assassin and also making it possible to get 2 kills near the end for a surprise win.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

24 hours of PMing and talking, which is quite important, seeing as the Night is 48 hours long and that the mission takes a quarter of the cycle.

I will admit that I volunteered for the Luckat mission because I feared that I would be killed (in hindsight, I realise why they didn't).

Also, volunteering for the mission isn't really an 'inno' thing to do. If you have a team of traitors, it would be a good idea to get one preferably always on the mission, giving them protection from the assassin and also making it possible to get 2 kills near the end for a surprise win.

 

Yeah, okay.

 

Why were you afraid of dying that specific Cycle?

 

I've thought the same thing, but I wouldn't think that a Traitor False Trails player would volunteer for missions, since there was the possibility of a Loyal Hacker. But nevermind about that. I confused myself a little.  I'm not trying to figure out who might be False Trails. I'm trying to figure out who's Well-Connected.

 

Player list stuff:

 

Lopen - Confirmed PM guy. NOT WELL-CONNECTED

Clanky - on the mission on N2. NOT WELL-CONNECTED

Kynedath - on the mission on N2. NOT WELL-CONNECTED

Shallan - inactive most of N2 and all of D3. NOT WELL-CONNECTED

phattemer - inactve most of N2 and probably all of D3. Probably not Well-Connected, since he was probably inactive.

Ripple - claimed Hacker. Seeing as there's a good chance the Traitors have False Trails, I doubt she'd say she had a role unless she actually did, in which case she's not Well-Connected.

Anamaximder - claimed Temporal Displacer. Same logic that applies to Ripple.

STINK - claimed Non-Specialist

Hellscythe - claimed Non-Specialist, and was scanned on N2 by LUNA as such.

 

So for Hellscythe to have been the Well-Connected player, he would have had to have been protected by False Trails on N2, when LUNA scanned him. Again, it comes down to who could have protected him. The same logic applies for all the players with this role as well, leading me to believe that either STINK is Well-Connected, and has lied to us about his role,  and moved a vote onto himself when lynching Arraenae, OR, STINK has the False Trails role, and protected Hellscythe that Cycle, making LUNA's scan useless. 

 

For either of those scenarios to not be true, it would mean that either Ripple, Anamaximder or phattemer is the Well-Connected role, and I don't think they are. STINK

[RippleGylf she/her]

Sorry I haven't posted yet. Of course, Lopen has gone ahead and revealed my role already. I'll try to post more later today. 

[Kynedath]

Woooo! Finally, someone else to vote for with evidence against them besides HS! Clanky STINK

[STINK he/him]

What are you doing Kynedath, also it's not really evidence...