How smart is Odium?

[muco]

Just one observation.

At the end of WOR, the interaction between Hoid and Jashna points to things being different this time around. The desolation this time is different in some way to the other ones.

 

Wouldn't that make any cyclic behaviour & pattern redundant?

[ParadoxicalZen]

My guess is given Odium's previous dealings with other Shards, in particular;

 

Elantris/Mistborn/Minor Cosmere Spoilers

Seeing how Odium is scared of Harmony (power of 2 Shards combined) and that he managed to take down Devotion and Dominion on Sel (my guess is through subterfuge) + another Shard we don't know about

 

that he probably got a little over-confident in his abilities, and considering Honour isn't too great at seeing the future, Odium could have underestimated him and probably thought that he knew exactly what Honour was going to do.

[yafeshan]

I think the point is Odium knows what happened in other worlds and he is planning ahead. I think he made a deal with Tanavast, like one of our friends said here, a very good deal, too good to reject. We know he was torturing heralds between desolations. They are going hell/damnation every time they die. Another part of deal can be that people dying on roshar also goes to damnation for torture and Tanavast allowing himself to be killed. But after Honor dies, what is holding the deal. I think it is somehow related to Cultivation. If Odium breaks the deal, something will be triggered and Odium will face strong opposition again. It may be Cultivation taking up the Honor shard and fight Odium.

 

I am guessing something unexpected happened and heralds broke the deal. Odium got his opening and put his plans in motion. I still think honor-cultivation have a contingency plan for the worst case scenario which is happening right now.

[Oudeis]

Keep in mind, humankind winning/surviving the Desolations isn't the default setting Odium agreed to. Tanavast tells Dalinar, make him think he can be beaten again; he will not want to risk that. The Desolations aren't there just to decimate humanity and reduce its technology level; they are a contest, and Odium has lost every one so far. Presumably, the point of a Desolation, from Odium's view, is to destroy the world, or at least all of the people. It's not about getting to torture ten people; Odium truthfully believed this was an opportunity to get the whole thing, to destroy all of Roshar.

[DreamEternal]

And as always, people assume there was a deal between Honor and Odium.

The way I see it, the desolations only happened so far apart because it took time for Odium to raise enough strenght to try to breach his prision. The Heralds were sent to damnation to strenghten the prision after a deal with Honor to be his champions, the bulwark of Roshar.

The honorblades were made to syphon Odium's investiture while on Braize, making sure Odium was too weak to break out in his own. However, the Heralds were not invincible, and could be broken by Odium, who could send his spren eith them when they left to Roshar.

Honor hoped humanity could survive these terrible battles and push back Odium, so the Heralds could return and re-seal his prision, but when only Taln went back and trapped Odium, the prision was flawed, and Odium could influence Roshar with his Unmade. Worse, Taln alone couldn't stop Odium from building up his power for a Desolation more terrible than any other.

Part of that extra power became what we know as the Everstorm.

At least that is what I believe.

[Oudeis]

Nope; if the Heralds stick around, a new Desolation begins. If all it would do would be to trigger a simple, easy one that Odium had been building up for a few minutes, presumably that would be better than waiting a few decades for him to build up a ton of forces. Pressure cookers don't work by building up a ton of pressure and then exploding, they work because you let out the pressure a little bit at a time.

[Ari]

Keep in mind, humankind winning/surviving the Desolations isn't the default setting Odium agreed to. Tanavast tells Dalinar, make him think he can be beaten again; he will not want to risk that. The Desolations aren't there just to decimate humanity and reduce its technology level; they are a contest, and Odium has lost every one so far. Presumably, the point of a Desolation, from Odium's view, is to destroy the world, or at least all of the people. It's not about getting to torture ten people; Odium truthfully believed this was an opportunity to get the whole thing, to destroy all of Roshar.

 

To be fair, we don't precisely know what Odium wants when he wins, because nobody ever talks about it and to our knowledge, it's never happened before.

 

My suspicion has been that he does want that decimation, and for the rest that he wants to have them torture each other, and for their lives to be brutal and short, but for their people to continue, but continue hating each other and hating him. Odium isn't Ruin after all, it's entirely possible he has a legitimate reason for his enemies to live.

[Oudeis]

Eh. That seems unlikely, since you're describing what has actually happened, and Tanavast expressly tells us that Odium has lost every Desolation. By your description, he's won them all. Maybe what he wants is other than the eradication of all humans, but it's not humans being beaten back and then splitting into racist kingdoms, because that's what Odium losing looks like.

[DreamEternal]

Nope; if the Heralds stick around, a new Desolation begins. If all it would do would be to trigger a simple, easy one that Odium had been building up for a few minutes, presumably that would be better than waiting a few decades for him to build up a ton of forces. Pressure cookers don't work by building up a ton of pressure and then exploding, they work because you let out the pressure a little bit at a time.

Sorry, I don't understand what you are implying. Under my theory, Odium can only unleash his power after an herald left and built a bridge, so to speak, and loses the connection to Roshar after at least one Herald comes back and seals him back. However while it takes only one Herald to trap Odium it takes ten to stop a build-up of investiture before said herald inevitably breaks.

Another desolation would start eventualy because with no Heralds in Braize and the "bridge" up it would be easy for Odium to send another wave of voidspren after the first is defeated and so on. It takes one Herald to delay a Desolation, it takes ten to prevent the Final Desolation by preventing the build-up.

The Heralds can't just allow Odium to constantly attack Roshar because the lower power limit, with no build-up, is the one of the Desolations that could decimate Roshar. This Desolation is worse.

Edited September 22, 2015 by CognitivePulsePattern

[Oudeis]

Ah. I conflated two things you were saying. You spoke of "building up power" to break his prison, but you also spoke of "building up power" to make this Desolation worse than previous ones. At first read I thought you were saying both of these were the same thing; that the time between Desolations was Odium "re-spawning" all of his forces.

 

I apologize for my misunderstanding. I still happen to disagree with your model, but can provide no WoB to say it's not true.

[DreamEternal]

Ah. I conflated two things you were saying. You spoke of "building up power" to break his prison, but you also spoke of "building up power" to make this Desolation worse than previous ones. At first read I thought you were saying both of these were the same thing; that the time between Desolations was Odium "re-spawning" all of his forces.

I apologize for my misunderstanding. I still happen to disagree with your model, but can provide no WoB to say it's not true.

Well, actualy I do believe that in this desolation Odium actualy has a chance of breaking free, contrary to what the old reptile thinks. The confusion was just the part that Odium needed to wait between Desolations to restore his forces.

I am sorry if my post was confusing, and hope to learn what do you think is happening, since you disagree with me.

[Ari]

Eh. That seems unlikely, since you're describing what has actually happened, and Tanavast expressly tells us that Odium has lost every Desolation. By your description, he's won them all. Maybe what he wants is other than the eradication of all humans, but it's not humans being beaten back and then splitting into racist kingdoms, because that's what Odium losing looks like.

 

No, I would agree completely with you that he hasn't won any Desolations yet, except insofar as the very system of having Desolations gives him a chance to meet his Intent. People have pulled through with nations surviving, unity, dignity, and until the recreance, oaths unbroken. Odium wouldn't want any of those things. If my suspicion is correct, he's tried and failed to completely get what he wants in prior desolations, but made a bit of progress that was often undone by Honour or his heralds or later the Knights.

 

This desolation is different at least in part because Odium has had relatively free reign between the previous desolation and this one with only Cultivation to deal with. He's used that to great effect: not only shattering Aleth'kar's unity, he's broken and suppressed the Knights Radiant and destroyed all of their history, leaving the Spren reluctant to bond with humans in the future, he's using his minions to spread the Thrill and other subtle influences, he's insinuated Parshmen through the society and is poised to transform them into Voidbringers using the Everstorm, and only a single herald remains fully committed to the Oathpact as far as we know. I have to agree with CPP that Odium really could break free of his confines if the heroes in the Stormlight Archive don't come up with a way to defeat him, and that there is a reason that this is called The Final Desolation. I wouldn't be sure we have enough information about how the Heralds work to know the exact details, but there are no obvious holes in the theory.

 

Odium, as far as I can tell, wants the only unity to be in serving him in torturing his enemies. He would potentially have long-term use for servants, if they can hate his enemies, hate him, and bring everyone else to hate him too. Previously, probably due to some prior agreement with honour, all he gets are the heralds between desolations, anyone he has permanently on Braize, and whatever chaos he can cause on Roshar during desolations. As of the Stormlight Archive he also had some minor influence between desolations, likely chiefly through the Unmade, although he might have a similar-but-different kind of trick to directly interfere, like Ruin had with altering writing.

If his goal was really to kill all people, he probably would have interfered with events on Scadrial, as he would have then not had a problem with incorporating Ruin's intent as well. But we have WoB that Rayse liked Odium's intent and doesn't want to hold any other shards, which means there must be some significant points of difference between Odium and Ruin that would run counter to Odium's plan.

[Oudeis]

I am sorry if my post was confusing, and hope to learn what do you think is happening, since you disagree with me.

 

I honestly have not the foggiest. I have so many questions about Desolations, and no answers. What marks their end? What does it mean? When did it start? How frequently did they used to occur? What's the definition of a Desolation?

 

In the Prelude, the Desolation is, apparently, definitely and completely over. Yet, Kalak is walking past a not-yet-fully-dead Thunderclast. If he's right near one that hasn't kicked the bucket just yet, how does he know for sure there are no more? Are Thunderclasts surviving not something that's necessarily part of the Desolation? How big is it? There must have been at least a few Desolations without Radiants. Did it span the continent? How many humans could ten Heralds possibly protect, how big an army could they possibly have held back, regardless of their powers? Why does Nalan think that spren re-bonding with humans will hasten a Desolation? Why do the Spren, who for so long forsook the Bonds, suddenly decide that it's worth the risk to re-bond?

 

I'm not sure I can explain it... but your idea just doesn't strike a chord with me. I don't have another idea to replace it, but I don't need one. I might not know what the answer is, but I see your theory and I just don't buy it. It's plausible, I'm not going to tell you that it's definitely wrong. But it just doesn't seem like what's actually gonna happen. It might help if it addressed more of the huge gaping Desolation questions.

 

EDIT: Oh, also, didn't mean to imply that your post was especially confusing. I thought I had been paying enough attention, and simply hadn't noticed that I conflated two similar terms you used. It's just one of those things that happens.

Edited September 23, 2015 by Oudeis

[Ari]

Brandon has answered in his recent AMA on Reddit that the end of a desolation is marked by the Heralds departing, but otherwise he's been pretty quiet on this with lots of RAFOs, as apparently details about how the heralds work is information we're only supposed to get in the back half of the series.

 

edit: Although asking about why Nalan/Nin thought that killing Surgebinders would halt/slow the Desolations could either result in a really interesting answer or a RAFO.

Edited September 23, 2015 by Ari

[Oudeis]

You're referencing the quote I posted above. When a Desolation is ending, the Heralds need to leave. If they don't, a new one begins. But what indicates that it's time for them to leave? If they simply leave in the middle of the fighting, surely the Desolation doesn't end then and there. What triggers the beginning of the end, what tells the Heralds, "Leave soon, or a new Desolation will commence."?

[DreamEternal]

According to my theory, the voidspren of the minions of Odium destroyed in a desolation return to Braize and reappear after some time like the Atium geodes(althought this is a different thing from the Everstorm build-up). This means the Heralds would have to leave before this time limit, since their leaving cuts of Odium's link to Roshar.

This time limit must be somewhat short compared to the desolation itself, since the Heralds had to abandon the oathpact before they could be even sure the last thunderclasts died. I think the heralds leaving before the fighting was actualy done was more common than we suppose. This is also given credit by the idea of Radiants being primarily made to rebuild and preserve knoeledge.

[Oudeis]

So... that's what you think a Desolation is? Voidspren show up and make things like Thunderclasts? I ask... as I read the sentence, it sounds like I'm being snide, but I am honestly asking you this. That I know of, we don't yet have a definition of a Desolation.

 

Do you believe the Voidspren are responsible for the Midnight Essence? Because in Starfalls, Dalinar fights Midnight Essence, and the Radiant tells him, "A Desolation is coming." Not, it's here... it's coming. The Midnight Essence are one of the Ten Deaths. Are Thunderclasts? We see Midnight Essence when we're told a Desolation has not yet formally begun. We see a Thunderclast after we're told the Desolation is formally finished. If you're defining a 'Desolation' as a time Voidspren flood the world and make the Ten Deaths exist... I contend that definition. There seems to be a degree of correlation, as the Midnight Essence is apparently one sign indicating an upcoming Desolation, but your theory... it just seems like it focuses on the wrong things, to me. I can feel this gaping hole of information we're missing, and it seems to be related only tangentially to the Ten Deaths and the Voidspren.

 

I don't mean to put words in your mouth; do you believe the Voidspren make the Midnight Essence the way they make Thunderclasts? Do you think they're both the Ten Deaths? It seems like you might be saying this, but you haven't expressly said so, so my apologies if I'm extrapolating.

 

This is part of my issue... there is just such an incredible awful lot we don't know about Desolations. We have to spend a lot more time than we have, just working on the foundations, before we can even discuss it. What do you mean when you say this, or that, and what do you think that is, or this... we need to define all of that before any meaningful discussion about the meat of our debate can even happen.

[DreamEternal]

You didn't sound snide at all, and there is truly much we do not know. What I am saying is that the Desolationa are characterised by a flood of voidspren of many different types, creating voidbringers and the Ten Deaths.

So far I don't have an answer about how they can exist between desolations, but so far I think they are something new too, from after the "Final" Desolation, and the same power build-up that allowed the Everstorm also allowed Odium to send some of his spren to Roshar, also explaining things like the Thrill, or more recently the Death Rattles.

But of course, this is especulation upon especulation, and I don't expect to convince anyone, only to say what I think. I suppose we can work on defining what exactly we know or can suppose before discussing personal theories.

Edited September 24, 2015 by CognitivePulsePattern

[Oudeis]

No... because from the Starfalls vision, the Midnight Essence appears when they expect a Desolation. If the Final Desolation had happened, people would believe no more Desolations are coming, and wouldn't casually mention that one is on the horizon. So the Midnight Essence couldn't have come outside of a Desolation after the Final Desolation. Nor does the Radiant seem especially surprised, like Midnight Essence outside of a Desolation is especially unusual. She says, we don't know who released it, implying that they know about the Ten Deaths and that it happens often enough that the mechanism is understood.

 

Basically I just think there's a lot of evidence challenging the basic assumption I usually see, which is, "A Desolation means Thunderclasts and Midnight Essence are sent to destroy humanity."

[DreamEternal]

Very well, you got me. There are as much holes in that assumption as there are in the assumption Honor and Odium made a deal. Re-read time!

[Oudeis]

Sorry; I don't mean to be argumentative. Your basic theory is still valid! There's just so much about Desolations we don't understand, and I feel like there are a lot of assumptions on 17s about them that don't bear up under scrutiny. I think this was deliberate on his part; Mr. Sanderson wrote the Prelude in a way to give us an impression of the Desolations, so when we learn what they really are, we'll be shocked and surprised.

[DreamEternal]

I never said I was discarting my theory, just revising some aspects. On another thread I was also reminded that my theory didn't explain why humans are needed to keep Odium in Braize and syphon his powers.