LG112 - Metacycle Two: Under New Management

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Sorry, but I really think we need to exe you here Myst. I appreciate the attempt, and I’ll reevaluate your thoughts after you flip, but I think this makes the most sense.

Also didn’t you literally tell me in PMs that TJ and Lettuce were on Scadrial when it gone blown up? And now you’re claiming they were on Sel? Or am I just misremembering info?

[Myst He/Him]

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Sorry, but I really think we need to exe you here Myst. I appreciate the attempt, and I’ll reevaluate your thoughts after you flip, but I think this makes the most sense.

Also didn’t you literally tell me in PMs that TJ and Lettuce were on Scadrial when it gone blown up? And now you’re claiming they were on Sel? Or am I just misremembering info?

Fair enough

TJ moved to Sel after it got exploded, that’s what happens. After a shardworld is destroyed the people on it get moved to another shardworld. In TJs case: Sel

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Just now, Myst said:

Fair enough

TJ moved to Sel after it got exploded, that’s what happens. After a shardworld is destroyed the people on it get moved to another shardworld. In TJs case: Sel

Okay I understand now. I just mixed up something.

Still wanna exe you though. Primarily because if you flip MetaElim we can start metagaming about whether you were aiming for a PV or PE win.

[Myst He/Him]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Okay I understand now. I just mixed up something.

Still wanna exe you though. Primarily because if you flip MetaElim we can start metagaming about whether you were aiming for a PV or PE win.

Well, start deciding what you’re gonna do once I flip meta village.

That said. If I was meta Elim, I think it’s pretty obvious I was trying to swing a PV win

[___ He/Him]

5 minutes ago, Myst said:

Fair enough

TJ moved to Sel after it got exploded, that’s what happens. After a shardworld is destroyed the people on it get moved to another shardworld. In TJs case: Sel

What I don't understand is how the heck do you know so much?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Just now, ___ said:

What I don't understand is how the heck do you know so much?

PMs be powerful

[Myst He/Him]

1 minute ago, ___ said:

What I don't understand is how the heck do you know so much?

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

PMs be powerful

That.

That said, I only really have active PMs with like 3-4 people.

Also my role gives me info. Knowing I did or didn’t kill someone is useful. 

[___ He/Him]

Just now, Myst said:

That.

That said, I only really have active PMs with like 3-4 people.

Also my role gives me info. Knowing I did or didn’t kill someone is useful. 

Hm

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

PMs be powerful

I guess

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

6 hours ago, Myst said:

That.

That said, I only really have active PMs with like 3-4 people.

Also my role gives me info. Knowing I did or didn’t kill someone is useful. 

On that note, who’d you shoot this time around?

[CadCom he/him]

Ok, I've had time to sleep on my thoughts. Here's what we collectively think we know (From my recollection) 
Verdance is most likely M/E due to their reaction to Araris' Gambit. 
Myst flip will give us most information. 

Since this game has meta and pseudo games, a normal meta-analysis would only refer to analyzing the meta game. So according to google, one layer deeper than meta (or metaphysics) is Ontology or Pataphysics. (I'm gonna go down a rabbit hole on pataphysics later) But for now, I'm stating I'm gonna do a bit of a pata-analysis. It's possible someone else did a similar analysis N0 or C1, but I notably was absent, so I did not participate or see it, so I'm doing my own.

OK. so with 18 players, a normal game would normally have probably 4, maybe 5 elims. But with the normal game having 2 layers with potential overlap, and the meta-game having a potential conversion (or two), my thoughts are that we have one large, and one small p-elim or m-elim team. I'm leaning toward a small M-elim team, and a larger P-elim team. Maybe. From chats I've had, the P-elim team is Xino(NKd), Hoid, TJ, Lettuce (Not sure where that comes from, but it's out there.) Unfortunately that leads toward a somewhat regular Elim team size, which doesn't lend well to my theory on team sizes. Perhaps both the meta and pseudo elims have 4 each. Meta elims have a potential for 1 conversion, up to a team size of 5. That could be it. 

That being said, applying this to the game, assuming both teams are of size 4, with only one P/M-Elim, that leaves us with 4 possibilities for the double elim. The double elim would be an important role to weed out, to help determine if the M-elims are seeking a PV or PE victory. 
So I'll do a quick Analysis of those 4:
Xino: They're playing? I haven't seen hardly anything from them. @xinoehp512, you alive? 
Hoid: Claims P-Elim, in order to defend Myst, claims Myst has them pocketed hard. Notably Hoid doesn't out the rest of the elims in the thread. Just themselves, though it seems likely that doing so would lead to a whole unraveling. And Immediately indicates to me that if Hoid is MV, they believe the ME want the PE to win. And vice versa is true too, if Hoid is ME, they probably want the PV to win. Hoid left their vote on Verdance, so if Verdance flips ME, then it's probably pretty safe Hoid is MV. But since we're currently going after Myst, We should note that whether Myst is MV or ME, I don't think it definitely leans either way as to what Hoid's position is. I think there are arguments on both sides for either flip of Myst. 
TJ: TJ is interesting because they claimed PE after Hoid did, but it also marks the second public claim, and potentially they also outed Lettuce, from my PMs. If they're ME, it probably indicates the MEs want the PV to win, but also maybe at that point, they decided it's best to just make it look like that's what they wanted to actually get the PV to help the PE win, so that the ME win their bet and get their conversion. 
Lettuce: Who? @Questioning Lettuce your name sounds like the anonymous account names, but in a different Universe. (instead of colorful animals, it's expressive vegetables)

Sorry that ended up being both an analysis of people and ME betcons. 

I'm wondering if there's a push to move away from Verdance to protect an ME, and if Myst flips MV, I'll highly suspect several of the people on the Myst push in late last cycle and this cycle. I'll at the very least look much closer at each of those people. 
 

[Through the living Wahr He/Him]

9 minutes ago, CadCom said:

and the meta-game having a potential conversion (or two)

As previously stated the Meta-Elims will get one Conversion

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

21 hours ago, Myst said:

I am meta village (yes go ahead and exe me it’ll confirm what I’m saying) 

This will be confirmed when I flip, until then, ask away for any of my very questionable decisions.

I don't like this at all. I've seen a lot of this gambit (exe me, you won't), and it's almost always e!indicative, unless it's a newer player.

That being said, I'm hesitant on mylti-cycle trains, and I can see this situation going either way: e!Myst or coinshot/any valuable role Myst (which doesn't make a lot of sense unless the elims have a Seeker).

[Qianweilian He/him]

@Hoid Slayer, has @xinoehp512 ever said anything in the pelim doc? (Can they still talk in it after being killed the the pseudogame?)

[Myst He/Him]

4 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

On that note, who’d you shoot this time around?

TJ, he’s on Sel though and I got roleblocked. So I either was really unlucky or the only person to target him

19 minutes ago, Through the Living Hopper said:

I don't like this at all. I've seen a lot of this gambit (exe me, you won't), and it's almost always e!indicative, unless it's a newer player.

That being said, I'm hesitant on mylti-cycle trains, and I can see this situation going either way: e!Myst or coinshot/any valuable role Myst (which doesn't make a lot of sense unless the elims have a Seeker).

Idk about you, but exing me is the only way yall are going to listen to me. Plus I still get to talk in thread, I just can’t vote or use a role.

Also I get into a dead doc

Edited June 3 by Myst

[Through the living Wahr He/Him]

2 minutes ago, Myst said:

Also I get into a dead doc

Not really, we only have the one for the Pseudo Game and you are already in that one

[Myst He/Him]

2 minutes ago, Through the living Wahr said:

Not really, we only have the one for the Pseudo Game and you are already in that one

What? I suppose that makes sense.

[CadCom he/him]

Ok, things have slowed down. Let's do a vote count

Please feel free to fact check me

Myst(5): Qian, CadCom, Araris, TJ, Striker
Striker(1): Hopper
Xino(1): Hoid, Myst, 

Assuming no vote manipulation, this is enough to exe (Myst). But if any votes change, or we assume any vote manipulation, then chances are this could not be enough. Looking at the vote distro after the last meta-cycle. I think the most likely scenario is that a vote was moved from Myst to Hoid. That would have been either Araris's or Mine. 

So if we assume any Lurkers are inactive, we might be able to assume someone is attempting to protect Myst. Without new votes, this count might result in no deaths. At least one more vote would be nice. 

[Myst He/Him]

9 minutes ago, CadCom said:

Ok, things have slowed down. Let's do a vote count

Please feel free to fact check me

Myst(5): Qian, CadCom, Araris, TJ, Striker
Striker(1): Hopper
Xino(1): Hoid, Myst, 

Assuming no vote manipulation, this is enough to exe (Myst). But if any votes change, or we assume any vote manipulation, then chances are this could not be enough. Looking at the vote distro after the last meta-cycle. I think the most likely scenario is that a vote was moved from Myst to Hoid. That would have been either Araris's or Mine. 

So if we assume any Lurkers are inactive, we might be able to assume someone is attempting to protect Myst. Without new votes, this count might result in no deaths. At least one more vote would be nice. 

It checks to see if we have the required amount before vote manip btw

edit: at least that’s how I’m interpreting it, right?

Quote

In the Metagame, the lead train must have equal to or more votes than the lead train of the previous Pseudogame cycle (If TUM was executed last Pseudocycle with three votes before vote manipulation, then the lead Metagame vote must have three or more votes). 

 

Edited June 3 by Myst

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

2 hours ago, Myst said:

It checks to see if we have the required amount before vote manip btw

edit: at least that’s how I’m interpreting it, right?

 

The Pseudocycle/base number is before vote manipulation, but the Metacycle is not

Edit: This is because investiture can cause crazy vote numbers btw

Edited June 3 by The Unknown Medallion

[Myst He/Him]

1 hour ago, The Unknown Medallion said:

The Pseudocycle/base number is before vote manipulation, but the Metacycle is not

Edit: This is because investiture can cause crazy vote numbers btw

Huh, as much as I’d like to survive. I’d rather we have an exe than not. If I don’t get exed yall probably will just exe me next meta cycle, and waste another exe.

hmmm

Thread controller can move a vote, but that’s the only way for a vote to be subtracted here…

We know we have one, but it very well may be someone already voting for me

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

7 hours ago, Qianweilian said:

@Hoid Slayer, has @xinoehp512 ever said anything in the pelim doc? (Can they still talk in it after being killed the the pseudogame?)

Xino cannot speak now that he’s dead

Before dying, he was active

7 hours ago, CadCom said:

From chats I've had, the P-elim team is Xino(NKd), Hoid, TJ, Lettuce (Not sure where that comes from, but it's out there.) Unfortunately that leads toward a somewhat regular Elim team size, which doesn't lend well to my theory on team sizes

That is not our full team

Also sorry guys I thought I made this post like two hours ago but I guess I didn’t hit submit

[Myst He/Him]

2 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Xino cannot speak now that he’s dead

Before dying, he was active

That is not our full team

Also sorry guys I thought I made this post like two hours ago but I guess I didn’t hit submit

He’s only put one thing in the dead doc so far, so that seems to have changed since he died

[Verdance he/him]

Why are we voting myst 

i find myself in the highly unfamiliar experience of trusting him- yes, i know, i have never trusted him before and this is completely unexpected 

just that this seems like an elim fabricated vote train to be completely honest 

[Qianweilian He/him]

6 minutes ago, Verdance said:

Why are we voting myst 

i find myself in the highly unfamiliar experience of trusting him- yes, i know, i have never trusted him before and this is completely unexpected 

just that this seems like an elim fabricated vote train to be completely honest 

I think it is the best option to gain information, whether Myst is revealed as mvil or melim

[Myst He/Him]

8 minutes ago, Verdance said:

Why are we voting myst 

i find myself in the highly unfamiliar experience of trusting him- yes, i know, i have never trusted him before and this is completely unexpected 

just that this seems like an elim fabricated vote train to be completely honest 

It’s not completely fabricated, I did lie about my role

 

2 minutes ago, Qianweilian said:

I think it is the best option to gain information, whether Myst is revealed as mvil or melim

Don’t think it’s the best way, but it is a way