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Posted

Alright, even accounting for 1 being fake, it seems to me we’re in scenario 2, which also makes sense because the other solutions didn’t make enough sense to me.

I don’t have anything else to go on, but we need to get votes out here

_____

Posted
2 minutes ago, Mist. said:

Alright, even accounting for 1 being fake, it seems to me we’re in scenario 2, which also makes sense because the other solutions didn’t make enough sense to me.

I don’t have anything else to go on, but we need to get votes out here

_____

Scenario 2 is a FFA, right? What does that mean? 

Posted
1 minute ago, Verdance said:

Scenario 2 is a FFA, right? What does that mean? 

Someone is a killer, and the NK gets passed around(I don’t remember when, it’s possible it changed already from the original person) and we want to be the last 2 standing. The other way to win is the hero role, which seems to be an automatic win. And you get that from lynching that days killer 

Posted
11 hours ago, Mist. said:

I just realized I’m being an idiot.

I completely forgot about the possibility that Doc or Star is lying.

Basically, what we’ve determined that it’s impossible for it to be scenario 3. However, we’re basing it to be scenario 2 on the clues we find. And in scenario 1, it would be a viable strategy to false claim clues.

In other words, before I can consider this to be scenario 2, I have to consider an Elim team with at least one of Doc or Star.

Right now we have three clues revealed, that’s not a lot, and easily skewed by a false clue. As such, unless other people want to claim a clue from scenario 2(I’d need a total of 4 people probably to feel sure) I need to get this out of the way.

E!Doc: Doc said he explored the upstairs. I’m not sure if he’s lying or not. I haven’t checked. If he is Elim, that clears Mint and Fizz, as he was online for rollover. In this case, I suppose I could see an E!Doc, but I haven’t gotten the normal vibes from him in PMs, he’s been surprisingly quiet about asking me for information and opinions. This actually suggests E!Striker though, he initiated a vote on him, and asked us to join him. After I did though, he moved his to Dive. Could be him trying to bus a teammate and then shifting to Dive when he was put up as a viable tie. 

E!Star: I know that Star wasn’t lying about her exploration, but if she is Elim, she has no reason to, since she didn’t explore the basement she has nothing to fear about telling the truth about her search. I’ve mentioned my dislike about her timing and everything, but I don’t have much to extrapolate from this.

So… I kinda have to decide which is more likely Scenario 2, or scenario 1 with an Elim in Doc or Star. E!Doc does seem to line up with some stuff, but I’m not getting E!Doc from PMs with him. E!Star could be it, but I’ve not seen anything about her teammates.

I think for now I’m going to cancel my vote on Ver

And hopefully some more people searched for Clues, because without them I can’t really put aside the possibility of E!Doc or E!Star

Edit: I just really ____ also got the same clue Doc did. This is more in favor of the scenario 2 for me, but I’d still like another clue from scenario 2 to be sure.

Continuing my thing of analysis 

E!______: I don’t have much here, like, at all. 

Just use mippo, makes more sense for all of us I think

3 hours ago, Doc12 said:

So the clues so far are 

Rithmatic defense (Doc, Mippo) - unique to 2

Jeskeri paraphernalia (Fallen) - unique to 1

Voidlight gem (Star) - 2 and 3

Bullet casing (Akimiko) - 1 and 2

Spike (Striker ) 1 and 3

Other claimed actions:

Qian - found boot

Ver - found boot 

Mist - followed star 

Conure - did nothing

 

So 4 clues that point to scenario 2, 2 which are unique and 2 that are shared.

3 to scenario 1, 1 unique and 2 shared. 

I'm inclined to believe in scenario 2 for now. It does track with the lack of coordination. 

If scenario 2, then it's likely but not certain that a ground floor explorer had the gun. The people who explored the ground floor may or may not have chosen to lie yesterday about this. I'm going to take a closer look at those who explored the ground floor when I get home from work. 

 

EDIT: I was also informed someone followed me last night. Anyone want to fess up to that and confirm my exploration? 

Edit 2: updated claims 

 

13 hours ago, ___ said:

Ok we're probably in 2 then, as I got the same. And since Star got the unique one it almost guarantees it.

Ok I'm sorry I really messed up writing this

I got confused 😭

I meant to say that doc got the unique one and I got the voidlight sphere, same as star.

1 hour ago, Mist. said:

Alright, even accounting for 1 being fake, it seems to me we’re in scenario 2, which also makes sense because the other solutions didn’t make enough sense to me.

I don’t have anything else to go on, but we need to get votes out here

_____

Yeah just do mippo 😭😭

Posted

I guess I’d prefer that votes/retractions for @___ include both ___ and mippo for the sake of visibility.

Also, a brief reminder that directly quoting PMs, GM or otherwise, is against the rules. You are free to paraphrase, but no direct quotes.

Posted

So I've found an inconsistency, specifically between @Through The Living Star and @Mist.

Mist claims to have followed Star. Star says Araris did not mention she was followed in her GM PM. 

The strange thing is I currently don't suspect any of them. 

Mist was clearing Star based on the fact that he confirmed she was telling the truth about where she explored. So for Star to now deny that is in some ways actively arguing against her clearing. Star was worried about being suspected, and one of her biggest skeptics gave her a clear, to her delight, but she's now saying she's not actually cleared, which, granted, Star's new to SE, I don't know her experience, but I feel like E!Star would be happy to be confirmed and not investigate further.

And for Mist, I floated the idea that he only claimed to follow Star while actually following someone else, but he said he was aware of the rule that people who were followed got informed, and is sticking to his story. I feel like E!Mist if caught in a lie would agree that claiming to follow Star was a reaction test and he actually followed, say, me. 

So yeah. Weird. I honestly want to believe both of them, but one of them is lying. 

Scenario guessing

Rithmatic defense (Doc) - unique to 2

Jeskeri paraphernalia (Fallen) - unique to 1

Voidlight gem (Star, Mippo) - 2 and 3

Bullet casing (Akimiko) - 1 and 2

Spike (Striker ) 1 and 3

So 1 unique clue from scenarios 1 and 2. I'm ruling out scenario 3s because Dive had a role. So 3 clues that can only be scenario 2, and 2 clues that can only be scenario 1. It's not enough to fully rule out 1. 

I collected the claims from yesterday again. The only person who didn't claim an exploration N0 is @Akimikoisthecutest 

Upstairs: Dive, Doc, Ver, Fallen,

Middle Floor: Wahr, Star, ____, Fizz, Conure,

Basement: Mist, Striker, Mint, Qian

Whichever Akimiko claims, the numbers are 4, 5, 5, which means no particular weight (again assuming no one lied)

Dive having a role could point to scenario 1 because upstairs villagers are weighted for role, but again, there's a chance he was picked from the entire pool and not the upstairs pool. 

In conclusion, inconclusive. 

@Frozen Mint @Fizz9 you guys are the only 2 that have not claimed an action last night. Please share so we can cross reference? Someone will be lying about their night action, so it'll help us all if you share. 

Right now, still waiting on answers from Star and Mist, but one of them is lying, and unfortunately I think Star makes sense here, as if we're working in a scenario 2 framework where the gun is more likely to go to a ground floor player. I'm sorry, both you and Mist seem very genuine to me, it's just that your stories just don't match. 

Posted

So I might have forgot to submit my action until after the deadline. I know everyone is going to think I'm lying but I'm not kidding. I got so mad 🤣.

Posted

I think I’m going to vote for Star here. I thought I remembered there being something weird as I was reading through all the exploration claims last night. I was just too tired to notice exactly what. 

Posted
29 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

So I've found an inconsistency, specifically between @Through The Living Star and @Mist.

Mist claims to have followed Star. Star says Araris did not mention she was followed in her GM PM. 

The strange thing is I currently don't suspect any of them. 

Mist was clearing Star based on the fact that he confirmed she was telling the truth about where she explored. So for Star to now deny that is in some ways actively arguing against her clearing. Star was worried about being suspected, and one of her biggest skeptics gave her a clear, to her delight, but she's now saying she's not actually cleared, which, granted, Star's new to SE, I don't know her experience, but I feel like E!Star would be happy to be confirmed and not investigate further.

And for Mist, I floated the idea that he only claimed to follow Star while actually following someone else, but he said he was aware of the rule that people who were followed got informed, and is sticking to his story. I feel like E!Mist if caught in a lie would agree that claiming to follow Star was a reaction test and he actually followed, say, me. 

So yeah. Weird. I honestly want to believe both of them, but one of them is lying. 

Scenario guessing

Rithmatic defense (Doc) - unique to 2

Jeskeri paraphernalia (Fallen) - unique to 1

Voidlight gem (Star, Mippo) - 2 and 3

Bullet casing (Akimiko) - 1 and 2

Spike (Striker ) 1 and 3

So 1 unique clue from scenarios 1 and 2. I'm ruling out scenario 3s because Dive had a role. So 3 clues that can only be scenario 2, and 2 clues that can only be scenario 1. It's not enough to fully rule out 1. 

I collected the claims from yesterday again. The only person who didn't claim an exploration N0 is @Akimikoisthecutest 

Upstairs: Dive, Doc, Ver, Fallen,

Middle Floor: Wahr, Star, ____, Fizz, Conure,

Basement: Mist, Striker, Mint, Qian

Whichever Akimiko claims, the numbers are 4, 5, 5, which means no particular weight (again assuming no one lied)

Dive having a role could point to scenario 1 because upstairs villagers are weighted for role, but again, there's a chance he was picked from the entire pool and not the upstairs pool. 

In conclusion, inconclusive. 

@Frozen Mint @Fizz9 you guys are the only 2 that have not claimed an action last night. Please share so we can cross reference? Someone will be lying about their night action, so it'll help us all if you share. 

Right now, still waiting on answers from Star and Mist, but one of them is lying, and unfortunately I think Star makes sense here, as if we're working in a scenario 2 framework where the gun is more likely to go to a ground floor player. I'm sorry, both you and Mist seem very genuine to me, it's just that your stories just don't match. 

I agree. I will hold off on voting this round, im not fully convinced, but the only person that jumps out to me as suspicious is Star for now. 

Posted (edited)

I’m gonna keep this short, I have practice.

I did follow Star, and if she’s claiming otherwise either she’s the one doing a reaction test or lying.

If it’s a reaction test, then I feel like you’ve gotten a reaction test, but otherwise Star

If it’s not a reaction test, I see no reason for you to lie other than if you’re Elim. I’ll be back in like 2 hours though to check up on the thread 

edit: oh, and @Doc12 I’m actually pretty confident you didn’t get a message saying you got followed

Edited by Mist.
Posted (edited)

I'll hold out from voting, as I'm not very sure I know enough for me to place it on somebody already

Edited by Conure1243
Posted

I followed @Doc12 and can confirm that he's being honest about his exploration claim. He saved Striker so I wanted to look into that.

1 hour ago, Doc12 said:

Star says Araris did not mention she was followed in her GM PM. 

did this happen in a PM? I'm not seeing anything like that in thread

1 hour ago, Fizz9 said:

So I might have forgot to submit my action until after the deadline. I know everyone is going to think I'm lying but I'm not kidding. I got so mad 🤣.

once I forgot to take my action on the last turn of a game and would've won if I did. so it could be worse 😂

38 minutes ago, Verdance said:

I agree. I will hold off on voting this round, im not fully convinced, but the only person that jumps out to me as suspicious is Star for now. 

5 minutes ago, Conure1243 said:

I'll hold out from voting, as I'm not very sure I know enough for me to place it on somebody already

you should play however feels best to you, but I will argue that voting gives the village important info to sus people out because it's a concrete action you can't take back. everything else is up in the air because you never know when someone is lying. people are rarely 100% sure in a game, and even when they are, they're still wrong sometimes. I think voting on the wrong person sometimes is just a necessary evil for these games

just something to think about, but with all that said, I definitely don't wanna pressure anyone to vote if they're not comfortable

35 minutes ago, Mist. said:

edit: oh, and @Doc12 I’m actually pretty confident you didn’t get a message saying you got followed

very curious about why you felt skeptical about this

Posted (edited)

 

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

I think I’m going to vote for Star here. I thought I remembered there being something weird as I was reading through all the exploration claims last night. I was just too tired to notice exactly what. 

Do you think you could elaborate what stood out to you?

16 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

I followed @Doc12 and can confirm that he's being honest about his exploration claim. He saved Striker so I wanted to look into that.

did this happen in a PM? I'm not seeing anything like that in thread

once I forgot to take my action on the last turn of a game and would've won if I did. so it could be worse 😂

you should play however feels best to you, but I will argue that voting gives the village important info to sus people out because it's a concrete action you can't take back. everything else is up in the air because you never know when someone is lying. people are rarely 100% sure in a game, and even when they are, they're still wrong sometimes. I think voting on the wrong person sometimes is just a necessary evil for these games

just something to think about, but with all that said, I definitely don't wanna pressure anyone to vote if they're not comfortable

very curious about why you felt skeptical about this

Yes, it was a PM conversation. Star said Araris didn't say anything about her being followed. I told her I got confirmation, and she said she asked Araris if she would have been told if she was followed. Again, this read as genuine to me, both her relief at someone confirming her story, her saying that she specifically checked with the GM if she should have received a notification, all that. 

Also @Verdance @Conure1243 @Fizz9 Seconding what Mint is saying here. We make our guesses and deal with the consequences. Every vote is information for the village, and we win by getting more information. It might get you suspected, or even executed, but we solve the game by all putting in our guesses!

 

The thing is, like Mist said, this is objectively a silly thing for an Elim to lie about, as it can be directly contradicted by your target/pursuer. It's also silly for E!Star to put herself back in the spotlight and throw suspicion on the person that was confirming her N0 exploration. This isn't a 'I followed you to the dead person' accusation where one must be elim, its something that Star could have just admitted she was mistaken or Mist could have claimed to have lied about his action.

So. Full list of claimed actions. 

Clue hunters:

Doc - Rithmatic defense - unique to 2

Fallen - Jeskeri paphernalia - unique to 1

Star - Voidlight gem - 2 and 3

Mippo - Voidlight gem - 2 and 3

Akimiko - Bullet casing - 1 and 2

Striker - Spike - 1 and 3

Other claimed actions:

Qian - found boot

Ver - found boot 

Mist - followed star 

Mint - followed Doc

Conure - did nothing

Fizz - did nothing

At least one person is lying.

I trust Mint slightly more since so far no one else has claimed to follow me. (There's a paranoid part of me that thinks it might have been Dive who followed me and Mint is just lying, but Occam's razor for now)

The big discrepancy is whether Mist actually did follow Star. Again. Weird action to pick to lie about. 

We're still unsure what scenario we're in, but if we are in 2... Still unsure who would lie. Elim might want to claim a scenario 1 clue like Fallen or Striker, or blend in with the 2 claims like Mippo and Star. I think Mippo seems a little clearer since he clarified some misunderstanding about what clue he actually got. 

Anyone else had any other thoughts?

Edited by Doc12
Posted
32 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

 

Do you think you could elaborate what stood out to you?

Yes, it was a PM conversation. Star said Araris didn't say anything about her being followed. I told her I got confirmation, and she said she asked Araris if she would have been told if she was followed. Again, this read as genuine to me, both her relief at someone confirming her story, her saying that she specifically checked with the GM if she should have received a notification, all that. 

Also @Verdance @Conure1243 @Fizz9 Seconding what Mint is saying here. We make our guesses and deal with the consequences. Every vote is information for the village, and we win by getting more information. It might get you suspected, or even executed, but we solve the game by all putting in our guesses!

 

The thing is, like Mist said, this is objectively a silly thing for an Elim to lie about, as it can be directly contradicted by your target/pursuer. It's also silly for E!Star to put herself back in the spotlight and throw suspicion on the person that was confirming her N0 exploration. This isn't a 'I followed you to the dead person' accusation where one must be elim, its something that Star could have just admitted she was mistaken or Mist could have claimed to have lied about his action.

So. Full list of claimed actions. 

Clue hunters:

Doc - Rithmatic defense - unique to 2

Fallen - Jeskeri paphernalia - unique to 1

Star - Voidlight gem - 2 and 3

Mippo - Voidlight gem - 2 and 3

Akimiko - Bullet casing - 1 and 2

Striker - Spike - 1 and 3

Other claimed actions:

Qian - found boot

Ver - found boot 

Mist - followed star 

Mint - followed Doc

Conure - did nothing

Fizz - did nothing

At least one person is lying.

I trust Mint slightly more since so far no one else has claimed to follow me. (There's a paranoid part of me that thinks it might have been Dive who followed me and Mint is just lying, but Occam's razor for now)

The big discrepancy is whether Mist actually did follow Star. Again. Weird action to pick to lie about. 

We're still unsure what scenario we're in, but if we are in 2... Still unsure who would lie. Elim might want to claim a scenario 1 clue like Fallen or Striker, or blend in with the 2 claims like Mippo and Star. I think Mippo seems a little clearer since he clarified some misunderstanding about what clue he actually got. 

Anyone else had any other thoughts?

Yes but last time i was voted out because i hopped on vote trains, so I’ve sat out the first two (and likely will the third).

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Frozen Mint said:

very curious about why you felt skeptical about this

I didn’t think you were skeptical enough of him to follow him(it’s not the impression I got of you the last two days) and you were the only person who hadn’t claimed. And I didn’t follow Doc, so my reasoning was that in a scenario 2, it made no sense for anyone to lie about that if Star’s Elim. If that makes sense.

Basically, I didnt follow him, and I didn’t think you would, so I thought he was reactionary testing

Edited by Mist.
Have to hadn’t
Posted
30 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

did this happen in a PM? I'm not seeing anything like that in thread

Yes, I did ask it in my GM PM, as I wanted to be sure the rules meant what I thought they meant. When I had confirmation, I checked again to be sure, as I not want to accuse anyone unjustly. Unfortunately, I did notice some discrepancies between what the GMs said and what Mist said. 

I've kind of given up hope that I will survive this round, so at least when I die and you see I was a villager, I hope you realize I was telling the truth. 

I wish nothing more that I could claim it was all a misunderstanding, and that I misread it. But after re-reading it for the probably sixth time, I can't see any other option or truth. I checked the rules, and asked the GMs, and re read everything again just to make sure. But everything points to the same thing. I was not followed last night. 

Please don't get me wrong. I am not saying that I know for a fact that Mist is an elim or anything like that. The only thing that I am saying is that I know for a one hundred percent surety that I was not followed last night. 

I will make this one plea for my life. I do not expect it to be believed, but I will say it nonetheless: Why would I lie about this? I had just been cleared by one of the people that was most against me. No one was more excited about that than I was. Then I noticed this. If I was an elim, why would I bring this to light? This will most likely get me executed, so why would I do this? Why would I make it so that I am back in the spotlight, rather than in the background if I was an elim? Beyond that, this is such a stupid thing to die for. If it does turn out that Mist has been lying, that does not necessarily mean that he is an elim. Why on earth would I let myself die for this? 

I just hope that if I do die, you will think it about what I said and maybe believe it. 

That is all I'm going to say, if anyone has any further questions, please feel free to ask. 

Posted

I’m going over the exploration and scenario rules right now, and I don’t think any of them could have cause this.

A protect shouldn’t affect exploration, a Roleblock could, but then I wouldn’t have gotten my results from searching back, so it can’t be that. I don’t have an Aviar, so that shoudnt matter.

As for the scenario roles/gifts it’s just vote manip and the NK. Neither of those should produce this.

With the items we can get from exploration, those shouldn’t have been able to apply anyways. Plus no one searched for them.

I’m throughly confused, because this should not be happening. As an Elim, this is a terrible move from either of us. But it doesn’t make sense otherwise. 

Posted

I believe Star. Her arguments are solid. I am going to wait to vote until we have more information.

Posted

Looking over these, I don't like how quickly Mist jumped on the star train

Completely on vibes, but seems like a good way to direct attention away from oneself

Sighhh this is gonna look so bad if star turns out to be elim.

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, ___ said:

Looking over these, I don't like how quickly Mist jumped on the star train

Completely on vibes, but seems like a good way to direct attention away from oneself

Sighhh this is gonna look so bad if star turns out to be elim.

You mean the train that only exists because Star’s and I’s GM PMs don’t seem to match?

Edit: I’m not saying you shouldn’t vote me, you probably should vote one of Star and I, I’m just saying that that reasoning doesn’t make sense

Edited by Mist.
Posted
1 hour ago, Doc12 said:

 Yes, it was a PM conversation. Star said Araris didn't say anything about her being followed. I told her I got confirmation, and she said she asked Araris if she would have been told if she was followed. Again, this read as genuine to me, both her relief at someone confirming her story, her saying that she specifically checked with the GM if she should have received a notification, all that. 

if this is the case, I think it's more likely that Mist lied. e!Mist could easily have killed dive and claimed to follow a player they could reasonably guess was telling the truth (since they'd know star was village). seems more likely that e!Mist forgot a rule than e!star either saying she didn't get confirmation when asked point blank (assuming that's how the PM went?). like I feel like that could prompt e!star to check the rules if they forgot

there's also a sliver of a chance that e!star was thinking of dropping out of the game, the elims saw doc catch this discrepancy, and then they came up with this plan to make e!mist look good. they'd have to be taking advantage of a hell of a specific circumstance though

I'll look over everything if I get a chance tomorrow

Posted
18 minutes ago, Mist. said:

You mean the train that only exists because Star’s and I’s GM PMs don’t seem to match?

Edit: I’m not saying you shouldn’t vote me, you probably should vote one of Star and I, I’m just saying that that reasoning doesn’t make sense

Just vibes man

Either one could be lying, I'm just going with you 

Posted
19 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

if this is the case, I think it's more likely that Mist lied. e!Mist could easily have killed dive and claimed to follow a player they could reasonably guess was telling the truth (since they'd know star was village). seems more likely that e!Mist forgot a rule than e!star either saying she didn't get confirmation when asked point blank (assuming that's how the PM went?). like I feel like that could prompt e!star to check the rules if they forgot

there's also a sliver of a chance that e!star was thinking of dropping out of the game, the elims saw doc catch this discrepancy, and then they came up with this plan to make e!mist look good. they'd have to be taking advantage of a hell of a specific circumstance though

I'll look over everything if I get a chance tomorrow

At the very least, I don't believe in an e!Mist/e!Star team. I didn't confront Star - I was just asking if she had anything she'd want to share, and she brought up the discrepancy herself that she didn't get a notification that she was followed. I then went to Mist and said I caught someone in a lie, and he didn't know what I was talking about until I spelled it out. So I don't think there was communication there. 

Also, asked you this in PM, but curious re: your reasoning for following me. Why is me not voting for Striker suspicious to you? 

Posted

I don’t know if I explained myself from my point of view(most of it is probably here, but I don’t think all of it is. I know I explained it to Doc in PMs though)

Alright:

I was suspicious of Star, I didn’t like the timing of some of her votes, and as such I followed her N1. What I got back at the beginning of D2 was that she had explored the middle floor N0.

I was at first a little confused when Doc told me Star said she didn’t get the thing about her being followed. Because I knew she had gotten it, and because of her reaction to my post saying I followed her.

From what Doc told me, she seemed to bring it up herself and had double checked everything in her GM PM, and when Star and I were talking, I was also getting V!vibes from her.

As I’ve mentioned(or, Doc mentioned that I mentioned) this is a terrible thing for either of us to lie about, if I was going to fake a claim, I could have said I got lost searching for her(it’s a 20% chance) or I got a clue(those are almost impossible to verify), as for her, it draws attention to herself unnecessarily, no one was under scrutiny, so it couldn’t have been to protect anyone, and in a scenario 2, that wouldn’t even mattered because there’s only one killer at a time in FFA.

I did double check with Araris and I am interpreting my PM correctly. And neither GM has clarified anything, so it’s not a GM mistake(i.e. if I got lost and based Star’s PM off of that, and then told me where Star got searched) 

When I was looking over the rules, none of the items, scenario rules or the exploration rules could have caused this.

So I don’t think Star is Elim, but she has to be, but it doesn’t make sense because this entire thing should not be happening. I thought maybe that Star was doing a reaction test or maybe she had misunderstood, but neither of those seem to be happening.

And I’m not sure what’s happening, but I’m going to take my vote off of Star for now. Because this entire thing makes no sense.

VC:

Mist (2): Mint, Mippo/____

Star (2): Striker, Doc

As a side note, this is a tie, so how people react will be helpful

——————

Brax flipped the top card and sighed in relief.

Balance.

All was right again.

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