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Posted (edited)

lunch or lose, basically try ur hardest to kill an elim today 

 

edit:

also, apparently Mistfallen’s team would have gotten results for their C1 discerning action. id assumed they didn’t because generally speaking if the action taker dies with an informative role their results do not get shared with the team, regardless of the order of actions but I’ve just confirmed with the GMs. just something to note ig 

Edited by Stick.
Posted

That doesn't really make sense as either an initialism or an acronym...

No vote manipulation, that feels odd. Because Mist was direform, that means if the shardbearer was blocked, than there were two direforms, making envoyform less likely.

I have no reason not to do this again (prob change later) IcedOutPenguin.

 

Posted
11 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

1. @Wahrheitswächter as Marne, 

2. @A Jo in the Bush as Jojala, it's not me.

3. @Akimikoisthecutest as Khenari, Publicly claimed to be Inspiring, unlikely to be lying.

4. @Stick. as stick, Claimed to receive Discerning Message

5. @ThatOneWorldhopper as Jojoja, Started as a Listener

6. @IcedOutPenguin as    , Inactive, maybe the Shardbearer then?

7. @Doc12 as Nienna, Started as a Listener

8. @The Unknown Medallion as    , 

9. @coco.pudding as Kiri, 

10. @Qianweilian as      , 

Jojala nodded at her list. That was valuable information that stick had given. "Can we assume that Stick is telling the truth here? Did the Discerner tell you the roles of Nienna and Jojoja? If so, those two could confirm the validity of your claim." 

"If that was true, and Khenari and the Unknown Singer were telling the truth, that only left Marne, Kiri, and the two other nameless singers as possible shardbearers. Kiri had claimed a different target the night of O's death, which would have been an odd gambit given my own fake claim of being Sneaky, which really only left Marne and the two nameless. The Shardbearer hadn't killed last night, which could lend credence to it being the penguin, but that would result in a runaway execution with absolutely no defense or discussion."

She thought about it for a moment. "I think it is now past time to revisit Marne's first day defensiveness. Could that be a result of them being the Shardbearer? I am currently willing to execute any of Marne, Qian, or Penguin as the Shardbearer."

Posted

Marne did not like what Johala had to say, yesterday they seemed so Sure that he was neither Regal nor Shardbearer, he had thought of Jojala as a friend, but maybe that was all a ploy to exploit Marnes Naivety, or the Regals had Gottes to him? He hated the thought of being tricked, but he would not go the same Route as the First day, where he reacted to the accusations with voting a Singer who hadnt talked yet, that had backfired horibly, so this time he would do the logical thing and vote the Person that had acused him Jojala

@ThatOneWorldhopper Penguins Inactivity could be another Explanation for the missing Shardbearer kill, I discounted the Theory of the Shardbearer not using his kill as pretty unlikely, because why? What benefit would he gain, but hadnt acounted for Penguins growing disintered and inactivity in the game. 

I however hate Jos sudden Charakter Change, yesterday he claimed that he was certain I was neither Regal, nor Shardbearer, and now hes acusing me, I dont understand why, So I do think he could be converted, because how else do you explain this pretty unprompted (at least in my oppinion) change in attitude towards me,?

Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I'm busy, Okay?

28 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

there was a fishy post last cycle they made (which I'll find later)

This what you’re talking about?

32 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

The Shardbearer hadn't killed last night, which could lend credence to it being the penguin, but that would result in a runaway execution with absolutely no defense or discussion."

If Penguin is regal/shard, then they’re probably faking being “inactive.” Also, considering how shard has killed other nights, the shard probably got role blocked.

28 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

Also, where did @Akimikoisthecutest go? We need your aggressiveness.

Aki only replied twice last cycle. I wonder if they got converted?

Edit: @Wahrheitswächter, I’m also suspicious of @A Jo in the Bush too.

Edited by Qianweilian
Posted
On 2/2/2026 at 10:39 PM, A Jo in the Bush said:

@Wahrheitswächter Marne had been very confused by her fake confidence. He had guessed that she had been fooled by a Stormform. Jojala believed Marne to be neither Shardbearer nor Regal.

@Stick. Stick had laughed at her. Literally laughed at her face, then asked if she was the shardbearer. If She was the Shardbearer, Jojoja would have been dead by now. Jojala honestly had no read on Stick. She could be literally anything. 

 @IcedOutPenguinOne of the Nameless Singers, though this one had not voted to execute Fernri. They had simply shaken their head, with no consideration for the accusation at all. It was a surprising reaction to be honest. Jojala didn't know what to make of it, but had decided that he probably wasn't the Shardbearer.

 Kiri had been confused by the accusation as well, and had offered up an alibi to prove it. It was not an alibi that Jojala could follow up on, but Kiri had been the very first to respond to her accusation, and very quickly. Jojala believed her to be a Singer.

@Qianweilian The last of the Nameless Singers, had outright denied being the Shardbearer, and suggested that she had gotten them mixed up with one of the other two Nameless Singers. They had offered up their nature easily, and guessed Jojala's own nature quickly enough. Jojala didn't think they was the Shardbearer, but could see them being either Regal or Singer.

Jojala frowned as she reviewed her list. Had she really discounted literally everyone except Stick from being the Shardbearer? Maybe that bluff had been a monumental waste of a day. Two Regals had been slain, and she hadn't even really paid any attention to it, because she'd had the idea to try to find the Shardbearer. She should really review what everyone had said while she was working. As things stood, Dahran and the nameless singers were her suspects for Regals. If she had enough time, she would investigate those 4 as thoroughly as possible.

She proffered her old list that she had kept. "The thing that stands out the most is Stick. She was my last remaining suspect for being the Bearer of Bloody Shards. Now, if the Discerner claim is true, it cannot be her. Which means that I must have been wrong in my list. The Shardbearer slipped through my bluff. I will still happily execute Stick if her claims cannot be validated, but I suspect they will be, and while I wait, I do not wish to be idle. Thus, the vote on Marne, to which he responded with his usual defensiveness. Qian I suspect merely because the role they claimed is not one that can be easily verified, and they are pursuing an inactive as the shardbearer, which gives them good reason to not kill, as it would through off the trail."

She shrugged and attuned consolation. "I'm not Regal, I am merely following the lines of Logic that I have established."

Posted
4 hours ago, Stick. said:

@Akimikoisthecutest who’d u target last cycle? 

Uh, I was planning on choosing close to rollover, but then some crazy stuff happened and I wasn't able to get back on the shard until almost 10 my time, so I didn't target anyone.

36 minutes ago, Qianweilian said:

Aki only replied twice last cycle. I wonder if they got converted?

I haven't been converted, I was going to give my reads, but uh, my sister broke her finger... I hope to be on more today.

 

Posted
29 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

they are pursuing an inactive as the shardbearer, which gives them good reason to not kill, as it would through off the trail.

I'll clarify. What I suspect is happening is penguin is faking being inactive, in order to evade suspicion.

5 minutes ago, Akimikoisthecutest said:

I haven't been converted, I was going to give my reads, but uh, my sister broke her finger... I hope to be on more today.

I hope she gets better soon. Tell her a random stranger you met online playing mafia in a book forum wishes her well (or not, your choice).

 

Jo also is starting to feel suspicious. I don’t know how effective this Shardbearer hunt (who is almost certainly known to the Regals by now) actually is. I think it’s far more important to focus on the Regals, so the village can win. Killing Regals is far more beneficial than the Shardbearer, and the Shardbearer might be taking orders from the Regals under threat of elimination, so they’re unlikely to ally with us.

Posted
Just now, Qianweilian said:

Jo also is starting to feel suspicious. I don’t know how effective this Shardbearer hunt (who is almost certainly known to the Regals by now) actually is. I think it’s far more important to focus on the Regals, so the village can win. Killing Regals is far more beneficial than the Shardbearer, and the Shardbearer might be taking orders from the Regals under threat of elimination, so they’re unlikely to ally with us.

Hmm, that is a good point. Jo could also be the shardbearer, and is trying to throw us off the scent

Posted
31 minutes ago, Qianweilian said:

 I don’t know how effective this Shardbearer hunt (who is almost certainly known to the Regals by now) actually is. I think it’s far more important to focus on the Regals, so the village can win. Killing Regals is far more beneficial than the Shardbearer, and the Shardbearer might be taking orders from the Regals under threat of elimination, so they’re unlikely to ally with us.

"I disagree. We need to kill 2 Regals to stop their kill, but only 1 Shardbearer. If the Bearer is in fact working with the Regals, then it will not be under threat of force, but under some guise of cooperation. If the Regals and the Shardbearer are working together, then we don't have the numbers to win without counting on 1 or more Heroics successfully blocking kills, or the Bearer continuing to not kill. If we execute a regal today, and lose 2 Singers, it drops down to 5 to 1 to 1, and we'll need to successfully execute the second regal, or it drops down to 2 to 1 to 1, at which point we lose. Killing the Bearer today gives us the time to actually win."

Posted
14 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Killing the Bearer today gives us the time to actually win.

That’s actually a really good point—but I still think it’s penguin over wahr.

Posted

Hey friends. I am really sorry but a real life emergency came up and I will not be available rest of this turn. I lost my wallet which contains very important ID and I'm going to be focusing on calling people/looking for it.

I will not take any actions this cycle, and if I do return to play this cycle I will make sure to inform everyone in thread that I am back and engaging. 

 

Posted
26 minutes ago, Qianweilian said:

That’s actually a really good point—but I still think it’s penguin over wahr.

"I agree, but it's important to not let the conversation stagnate, hence the vote elsewhere. If everyone votes on an inactive, the non-singers have no need to respond, and we get no additional information. I will happily switch to Penguin if no one else votes for Marne, but on the smaller chance it is Marne, i want to keep my vote there in case anyone else agrees."

Posted
40 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Hey friends. I am really sorry but a real life emergency came up and I will not be available rest of this turn. I lost my wallet which contains very important ID and I'm going to be focusing on calling people/looking for it.

I will not take any actions this cycle, and if I do return to play this cycle I will make sure to inform everyone in thread that I am back and engaging. 

 

Dang, that sucks. I hope you find it soon and everything works out.

 

I’m not feeling like Penguin is the most suspicious person here, I’d be a bit more willing to vote Wahr.

Posted

ok as ur resident LOCK CLEARED villager i have gathered claims from everyone

 

we are missing a spren claim --> the extra vote on Mistfallen from C1 is unaccounted for, and i doubt an elim spren would have done it so i have concluded that whoever added that vote has since been CONVERTED and LIED to me about their role

 

discuss.

 

edit:

well ig it doesnt have to be a missing spren, it could be a missing inspiring claim instead. doesnt matter.

Posted (edited)

Assuming the following distribution for living Player (Shard, 2 Regals, 7 Singers no Conversions) and  no suprises through spren, survivors and Direform blocks, These are possible outcomes for next cycle based on what we kill, 

Spoiler

Singer exe (Shard, 2 Regals, 6 Singers)

Shard, 2 Regals, 4 Singers (shard and Regal work together, very Bad for us)

Shard, Regal, 5 Singer (shard kills Regal, Regal kills Singer, not good, very unlikely)

Regal, 6 Singer (shard and regals turn on eacht other, very good, very unlikely)

2 Regal, 5 Singer (Shard kills Singer, Regal kills Shard, not Bad)

Shard exe (2 Regals, 7 Singers):

2 Regals, 6 Singers (quite good)

Regal exe (shard, Regal, 7 Singers):

Shard, Regal, 5 Singers (both work together, as stated, not good)

Shard, 6 Singer (Shard kills Regal, Regal kill Singer very good,)

7 Singers (Shard and Regal kill each other, win,)

Regal, 6 Singers (Shard kill Singer, Regal kills Shard, very good, will probably not happen)

No exe (Shard, 2 Regal, 7 Singer):

Shard, 2 Regal, 5 Singers (both work together, bad)

Shard, Regal, 6 Singers (Shard kills Regal, Regal kill Singer, Ok, not likely)

Regal, 7 Singers, (both turn on each other, very good, very unlikely

2 Regal, 6 Singer (shard kill singer, Regal kill Shard, as stated, quite god)

The crossed out parts are outcomes i think are impossible to happen

In conclusion, no execution would be better than executing a Singer so please, be very very Sure that you vote a Regal or Ideal the Shardbearer, I agree with Jo that getting the Shardbearer out would be the best Situation for us, however as someone else previously said, hinten the Shardbearer and thus not being on the suspekt list, could be a good way to hide the shardbearer. So my current vote stays, but if there are good arguments to convince me of Jos innocence, I will follow my own advice and not vote or vote on someone if there are good arguments for it (given that I am not already asleep)

Edited by Wahrheitswächter
Posted

Ok well i think ill just lay everything down as is, apologies if this is suboptimal but it's cycle 4 so:

 

I think TUM is the shardbearer, Jo is a regal converted C1 with a discerning role (or perhaps even one of the original regals), and worldhopper is another converted regal, perhaps converted just C3 (this one im not too sure about but ya). 

 

Here’s everything thats happened:

  • Jo PMs me at the start of this cycle (C4) and claims to be a discerning singer, with the following actions: C1: doc12 scanned as village sneaky, C2: worldhopper scanned as village [REDACTED], C3: stick scanned as village [REDACTED] 

This is all fine and good, and i make a post early on in the cycle about it

 

  • I then ask doc12 about his targets so far, and he tells me this: C1: jo targets stick, C2: akimo targets doc12, C3: stick targets no-one

Couple of things alarming about this…. Firstly, jo claims to have targeted doc12 C1, not me. Secondly, I know for a fact I DID visit someone C3. To me, this is GM confirmed via my C3 action feedback.

So: either doc12 is lying a bunch about everything, or jo is. In the latter case, doc's C3 action got redirected onto someone that did not take an action that cycle. I’m far more inclined to believe doc here over jo because apparently doc’s C3 action feedback is worded in such a way that indicates a redirect ie the original target is not explicitly named. if jo actually did scan me as village C1 but later in his big reads post says that he has no read on me whatsoever, that's def eye brow raising on its own 

 

  • Further, after some prompting from me, jo reveals that TUM ALSO claimed discerning to them during C2, when jo did that shardbearer test with them in PMs. Apparently TUM freaked out a bit thinking jo followed him with a sneaky role, and claimed that he did in fact visit archer c1, not to kill him, but rather to SCAN him because he’s discerning.

Ok… weird. Not sure why TUM would straight up just claim the strongest village role in the game to somebody he explicitly does NOT trust. Source (from C2):

Quote

“I'm not fond of Jo, and he's who I want to look at next/if enough people are willing to follow me tonight. The convert is going to be looking for the Shardbearer right now, and that's exactly what Jo's gambit is doing. That combined with his push on me is worrying.”

It makes no sense for TUM to be claiming their true role to jo here at this stage.

 

  • Jo then claimed that TUM returned to them during C3 having scanned jo as a village discerning as well

 

What i think ACTUALLY happened:

Jo scanned TUM C2 and found them to be the shardbearer and struck some sort of a deal. This might be why we did not see a shardbearer kill post-C3. I think jo scanned me C1 (as supported by doc’s C1 action results), scanned TUM C2, and scanned doc C3. or maybe archer scanned doc C1 and jo scanned someone else.


worldhopper is a suspect because when i asked about their actions they claim they forgot that this was a QF and did not sub any actions during the cycle.... three separate times... i understand forgetting the first time, and let's say ur extra forgetful and forget a second time too. but THREE times? idk that's a hard pill to swallow so i kinda think they just got converted last night for having that initial cred from voting archer c1 

 

additionally i also kinda think Wahr is a regal atm, perhaps one of the remaining original ones idk and probably a Stormform that targeted me last cycle and caused doc's sneaky visit to be redirected away from me. I would guess that the sudden rivalry between wahr and jo that has materialised this cycle is distancing with the hopes that im going to come and defend jo because obviously he's claimed discerning to me etc etc. separately i also think wahr's role claim to me sounds the most tonally sus out of all the claims ive gathered. but maybe i cooked too hard here and burnt the rice idk

 

i also think i got roleblocked by Mistfallen C1

 

and then there's the case of archer's discerning scan from c1 being out there.... it couldve been tj or one of the others idk

 

@TwinStorm @Hoid Slayer ok sorry i bolded and coloured a lot of names in this post for emphasis but my actual vote is here: A Jo in the bush
 

 

pinging everyone for opinions: @IcedOutPenguin @coco.pudding @Akimikoisthecutest @Doc12 (sorry abt ur wallet hope u find it soon) @Qianweilian

 

Posted

Jojala took in that speech. It was a lot. If everything Stick said was true, and it kind of had to be since she had Discerned that Stick was in fact a Listener after the second conversion, then the only possible answer was that Nienna had been converted.

"I can confirm large chunks of what Stick has said, though she is wrong about me, obviously. I will be Discerning The Unknown tonight to ascertain their nature assuming i live, or maybe Nienna instead."

She hesitated. Was it smart to execute a Regal right now or should she still focus on the Shardbearer? They hadn't killed the night before, possibly they truly were Penguin the inactive. And Marne's math and analysis did make it seem more likely they could still win with killing a Regal today.

"Obviously, i will vote to save myself, because Stick and I are the only Singers that I know for sure to be opposed to Odium. But otherwise, I will vote on Nienna, who basically has to be the most recent Convert, or Penguin, who is probably the Shardbearer."

"The only way I see TUM being the Shardbearer is if O the Discerning Regal scanned me on that first day, and the Elims found TUM and told him my role. Either that or he made the bluff of a century and I fell for it."

Posted

@Stick. I think most of your Analysis Sounds quite good and logical to me, except for the Part where you assume that there are three remaining regals, (Jo, TOW, and Me) because that would mean, there where 3 initial regals with 2 conversions wich Sounds like a distro that is quite favorably for the Elims, especially with a sharbearer running around. 

So I would like to know what about my claim was Tonally Sus? And what @Qianweilian (and @Doc12 if he has recovered his wallet) think about that as I role swaped with them as well.

Obviously I am what I claimed to be and not the Regal

Posted
24 minutes ago, Stick. said:

ok sorry i bolded and coloured a lot of names in this post for emphasis but my actual vote is here: A Jo in the bush

You can use bold, italic, underline, blue, yellow, whatever, but you’re only supposed to use red/green for voting.

Posted

"No?" Jojala attuned confusion. "TUM being the Shardbearer requires too many coincidences. O scanning me, the gods giving his result to the regals, the regals finding the Shardbearer and telling him what I was, and him bluffing with that. While stranger things have happened, Nienna being evil only requires a single conversion, rather than a long chain of coincidences. TUM has also been active, where the Shardbearer has not."

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