MR74: The Politics of Gods

[Araris Valerian he/him]

5 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I think that if the Elims don't do anything* they could very comfortably win the game, they've almost no doubt selected someone to kill, and we are probably going to vote out a villager

Let's do some napkin math. Suppose everyone agrees that Hoid is village. Counting themselves, that leaves 7 players of unknown alignment, of which 3 are elims. So if we vote totally at random on folks, we have almost a 50% chance of catching an elim. And we're not voting at random. We have 2 vote counts and 2 NKs to look at, plus a bunch of posts everyone has made. I'd say we have a 60-70% chance of hitting an elim this cycle. And even if we miss, the odds get way better next cycle. How does that add up to your conclusion? (I'll note in the improbable 4 elim world then that just boosts our odds of hitting one of them this cycle)

Curious what folks' thoughts on the following interaction between CD and BBB are:

On 9/4/2025 at 4:11 PM, CoderDrag0n8 said:

I think that new player elims will be pointing fingers a lot more than either new player villagers or old player elims.

This being said, BigBadBagsworth. @BigBadBagsworth.

Besides the above reasoning, I believe that his first Ekkar vote was him trying to piggyback off of my Ekkar vote.

Please correct me if I am wrong, this is prob my first real read in all of SE.

On 9/4/2025 at 4:41 PM, CoderDrag0n8 said:

*me just realizing that someone voted BBB before me*

It is mostly just me trying to pressure him into giving explanation.

If he doesn't by Cycle End, I vote for him. Simple as that.

On 9/4/2025 at 5:43 PM, BigBadBagsworth said:

My explination: Polly literally hadn’t posted, so I thought someone voting her was super sus. Araris and Twin both seemed to me to be trying to start trains without evidence. I now understand that, at least for araris’s vote, this is a strategy called “poking”, stupid accusations no one is supposed to take seriously, but that get reactions that can be used to make reads.

I stand by my Twin vote tho. Poking only makes sense if there’s zero votes on someone; if someone’s already voted them, the reward of a second, less valuable reaction is outweighed by the risk of getting your target exed. Twin didn’t give a reason at all. I believe I would’ve voted him even if @Hoid Slayer hadn’t brought the matter to my attention.

@CoderDrag0n8

On 9/4/2025 at 5:59 PM, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Iggdraz, you seem fine. With your reasoning, I do believe Twinstorm is the right call.

It looks kinda performative to me for end of cycle voting. The initial vote on BBB sounds sincere and not like a poke. Then CD realizes that BBB already has a vote on him, so he backs off and "clarifies". And then after BBB gives justification, CD switches to TwinStorm.

[CoderDrag0n8 He/They]

9 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Let's do some napkin math. Suppose everyone agrees that Hoid is village. Counting themselves, that leaves 7 players of unknown alignment, of which 3 are elims. So if we vote totally at random on folks, we have almost a 50% chance of catching an elim. And we're not voting at random. We have 2 vote counts and 2 NKs to look at, plus a bunch of posts everyone has made. I'd say we have a 60-70% chance of hitting an elim this cycle. And even if we miss, the odds get way better next cycle. How does that add up to your conclusion? (I'll note in the improbable 4 elim world then that just boosts our odds of hitting one of them this cycle)

Curious what folks' thoughts on the following interaction between CD and BBB are:

It looks kinda performative to me for end of cycle voting. The initial vote on BBB sounds sincere and not like a poke. Then CD realizes that BBB already has a vote on him, so he backs off and "clarifies". And then after BBB gives justification, CD switches to TwinStorm.

We’ll, I didn’t want it to seem like I was joining a train, someone had just advised me to not join trains, so I wanted it to be clear it was a poke vote, and I am generally easily convinced.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

23 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I think that if the Elims don't do anything* they could very comfortably win the game, they've almost no doubt selected someone to kill, and we are probably going to vote out a villager

So why don't you help us find them?

I trust that you're a villager, Penguin

Sincerely, I do

But I need you to hold up your part of the bargain

Right now, honestly, I don't see what to do other than wait for more people to show up. Aman, if you had to vote now, who would you go after?

7 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Let's do some napkin math. Suppose everyone agrees that Hoid is village. Counting themselves, that leaves 7 players of unknown alignment, of which 3 are elims. So if we vote totally at random on folks, we have almost a 50% chance of catching an elim. And we're not voting at random. We have 2 vote counts and 2 NKs to look at, plus a bunch of posts everyone has made. I'd say we have a 60-70% chance of hitting an elim this cycle. And even if we miss, the odds get way better next cycle. How does that add up to your conclusion? (I'll note in the improbable 4 elim world then that just boosts our odds of hitting one of them this cycle)

Except there's nine of us, not 8. It's why we would stay alive past this cycle if there're three elims instead of dying by equalization

Also, lowkey, I look forward to the day I'm elim, cause in every game I play I instantly get mass village-read  except for that one time we don't talk about

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Curious what folks' thoughts on the following interaction between CD and BBB are:

On 9/4/2025 at 6:11 PM, CoderDrag0n8 said:

I think that new player elims will be pointing fingers a lot more than either new player villagers or old player elims.

This being said, BigBadBagsworth. @BigBadBagsworth.

Besides the above reasoning, I believe that his first Ekkar vote was him trying to piggyback off of my Ekkar vote.

Please correct me if I am wrong, this is prob my first real read in all of SE.

On 9/4/2025 at 6:41 PM, CoderDrag0n8 said:

*me just realizing that someone voted BBB before me*

It is mostly just me trying to pressure him into giving explanation.

If he doesn't by Cycle End, I vote for him. Simple as that.

On 9/4/2025 at 7:43 PM, BigBadBagsworth said:

My explination: Polly literally hadn’t posted, so I thought someone voting her was super sus. Araris and Twin both seemed to me to be trying to start trains without evidence. I now understand that, at least for araris’s vote, this is a strategy called “poking”, stupid accusations no one is supposed to take seriously, but that get reactions that can be used to make reads.

I stand by my Twin vote tho. Poking only makes sense if there’s zero votes on someone; if someone’s already voted them, the reward of a second, less valuable reaction is outweighed by the risk of getting your target exed. Twin didn’t give a reason at all. I believe I would’ve voted him even if @Hoid Slayer hadn’t brought the matter to my attention.

@CoderDrag0n8

On 9/4/2025 at 7:59 PM, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Iggdraz, you seem fine. With your reasoning, I do believe Twinstorm is the right call.

It looks kinda performative to me for end of cycle voting. The initial vote on BBB sounds sincere and not like a poke. Then CD realizes that BBB already has a vote on him, so he backs off and "clarifies". And then after BBB gives justification, CD switches to TwinStorm.

I had actually spoken out about this

In retrospect, I don't think it's as big of a deal as I made it out to be before, though

I would say, however, that in this case an e!CD flip would incriminate BBB, as there is no reason for e!CD to make this switch if not to keep BBB alive

Not quite ready to jump on the CD train though...

Current VC:

BBB (2): CD, Windrunner

KSauce (2): Penguin, Stoneward

TOW (1): Hoid

CD (1): Araris

Ekkar Loral stood alone. He had followed the instructions on the note to this chamber. The very place Zyvoxid, and Leucosia before her, had died. This morning, it was empty. Filled with the silence of the dead and Lifeless. Ekkar wasn't sure what he was looking for. Answers, he supposed. Answers where all he wanted.

The note wasn't signed, and so Ekkar had taken a leap of faith by trusting it. Perhaps it was stupid to come to the site of two murders, and his body thrummed in that fear. But the chance of a reward was too great. Of course, no one had shown up yet.

Ekkar's mind drifted to the events of the morning; Kosm's return had shaken everything up. Now, Ekkar and Arlun didn't stand alone. Of course, besides the pair of them and Kosm, most of the priesthood still remained oddly silent. And Ekkar couldn't shake a feeling that the people behind these murders were in control. ________ behaved weirdly, but for some reason, Ekkar trusted him. The others... he didn't know.

He didn't know.

Ekkar sighed, and was ready to leave the chamber when a step sounded behind him. His body tensed instantly, and slowly, carefully, Ekkar Loral turned around. Then everything loosened in relief, and he choked out a raspy laugh. Because standing behind him, looking at him with that stern gaze that could solve any problem, was Evinir Cragborn. Glorious.

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

4 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

So why don't you help us find them?

 

Easy, exe KSauce

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Except there's nine of us, not 8. It's why we would stay alive past this cycle if there're three elims instead of dying by equalization

This math doesn’t quite work from your perspective, but presumably all the other villagers trust both you and themselves. That leaves 9-2=7 players of unknown alignment for all of us.

Just now, IcedOutPenguin said:

Easy, exe KSauce

KSauce presumably has 2 teammates. Thoughts on who they might be?

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This math doesn’t quite work from your perspective, but presumably all the other villagers trust both you and themselves. That leaves 9-2=7 players of unknown alignment for all of us.

Ooooh I understand now

4 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

Easy, exe KSauce

Wait

Weren't you attacking TOW earlier?

Can you explain your logic?

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

Just now, Hoid Slayer said:

Ooooh I understand now

Wait

Weren't you attacking TOW earlier?

Can you explain your logic?

I think its KSauce and TOW, I was telling you that i think its TOW and not Doc. I still think KSauce is better to exe this cycle cause he's active and TOW isn't

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

3 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I think its KSauce and TOW, I was telling you that i think its TOW and not Doc. I still think KSauce is better to exe this cycle cause he's active and TOW isn't

Alright

I get that

But why KSauce?

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

2 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Alright

I get that

But why KSauce?

He's acting unusually interested. They were not this active and engaged in the other few games I've played with them, and they seem to be interested in knowing what's going on, which isn't like what they've shown in past games

[KaladinsSenseOfHumourSpren He/Him]

1 hour ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

He's acting unusually interested. They were not this active and engaged in the other few games I've played with them, and they seem to be interested in knowing what's going on, which isn't like what they've shown in past games

...

I was evil in the last game. 

[BigBadBagsworth He/him/his]

4 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Also, anyone else notice how BBB is fading into the background...

Sorry! I my stupid, stupid school is giving out homework on the first two days, and my commute is long I’ll only be able to be on in fits and starts.

Reading through four pages of happenings now.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

12 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

Sorry! I my stupid, stupid school is giving out homework on the first two days, and my commute is long I’ll only be able to be on in fits and starts.

Reading through four pages of happenings now.

Oh, that's fine 

I was talking about the pressure on you, not you per se

ALTHOUGH I would also like to hear your opinion on events

[Amanuensis he/him]

Okay I am home, got a few small errands I need to do around the house. I know Hoid asked me things but will answer later.

Based off my vague memories of the questions, I would like to figure out who out of Coder, Penguin, and BBB are most likely not paired with each other, and then probably vote the one that fits on a team with both of the others

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

2 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I think its KSauce and TOW, I was telling you that i think its TOW and not Doc. I still think KSauce is better to exe this cycle cause he's active and TOW isn't

I just didn't want to be super active because it's Sunday, I'll be back tomorrow. I haven't been as active this game because my school's wifi is down, so I have only a little bit to post, most of which I spend reading through the thread.

Penguin. Why don't you put your money where your mouth is? If you think it's KSOHS, vote KSOHS. If you think it's me, vote me. It seems to me like you wanting me gone, and started pushing for that, but realized that KSOHS was a better target.

You seemed pretty certain it was me, then you kind of switched to KSOHS. Feels like an elim getting advice in-doc.

Edited September 8, 2025 by ThatOneWorldhopper
SPAG

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I just didn't want to ve super active because it's Sunday, I'll be back tomorrow. I haven't been as active this game because my school's wifi is down, so I have only a little bit to post, most of which I spend reading through the thread.

Penguin. Why don't you put your money where your mouth is? If you think it's KSOHS, vote KSOHS. It seems to me like you wanting me gone, and started pushing for that, but realized that KSOHS was a better target.

You seemed pretty certain it was me, then you kind of switched to KSOHS. Feels like an elim getting advice in-doc.

TBH I am very tempted to say this slot is lock town and call it a day

['it' being trying to generate a more thorough read of TOW, that is, not the literal day]

Edited September 8, 2025 by Amanuensis

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

24 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I just didn't want to be super active because it's Sunday, I'll be back tomorrow. I haven't been as active this game because my school's wifi is down, so I have only a little bit to post, most of which I spend reading through the thread.

Penguin. Why don't you put your money where your mouth is? If you think it's KSOHS, vote KSOHS. If you think it's me, vote me. It seems to me like you wanting me gone, and started pushing for that, but realized that KSOHS was a better target.

You seemed pretty certain it was me, then you kind of switched to KSOHS. Feels like an elim getting advice in-doc.

I never voted you, I'm saying i'm gonna push to exe you after KSauce is gone I already voted him

[BigBadBagsworth He/him/his]

There are a couple possibilities that I can see for Elim teams.

Team the first: The analysts

 Aman, Araris, and Hoid.

One of them always seems to start the Village exeing train each cycle. And they never vote on each other. Didn’t Aman say something back on page three about how proper distancing being about throwing minor Sus someone’s way but never actually placing your vote on them? And how Araris knew that too?

For it: It would explain a lot of interactions, and why only villagers have been voted out so far. These are, like, the three most experienced people here. When’s the last time in this game we’ve seen them seriously disagree on who to exe? But they haven’t voted out an Elim to this point.

Against it: What are chances the three most experienced players would all be elims? @A Jo in the Bush Were the elims chosen at random?

Team the second: the inactives.

This game has the feel of one where the elims sit back and whatch the village bicker among itself until they can finish it off. That’s usually not possible, but this game has an unusually large number of people who only occasionally post (and I, unfortunately, am one of them. Damn you, phone-confiscating school!). This group would be much harder to successfully sus out. It could include a combination of TOW (though I have a moderate V! Read of them after their last post), Iced, K-sauce, Polly, and possibly Coder. Also any others I’m forgetting because they haven’t been around.

For it: It would explain the unusually high number of inactives this game; they’ve agreed to be inactive so there wouldn’t be any evidence against them to turn into a train.

Against it: It just feels wrong. Someone smarter than me would probably be able to find a big problem in it. (Though if this one’s false, then the Analysts are likely to be Elims, and they surely won’t disabuse me of my notion if they are.)

Now I know there’s a big train against me, so I’ll disprove it in the most reliable way possible:

Flipping myself!

*pulls out Hemalurgic spike and points it toward chest*

BBB

 

Edited September 8, 2025 by BigBadBagsworth

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

8 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

Flipping myself!

*pulls out Hemalurgic spike and points it toward chest*

BBB

Gasp! Plot twist! 

[Amanuensis he/him]

28 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

Flipping myself!

*pulls out Hemalurgic spike and points it toward chest*

BBB

20 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

Gasp! Plot twist! 

Spoilered for sensitivity, Trigger Warning: gallows humor (mods please let me know if this isn't ok for the Shard and I will replace it)

Spoiler

 

28 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

There are a couple possibilities that I can see for Elim teams.

Team the first: The analysts

 Aman, Araris, and Hoid.

One of them always seems to start the Village exeing train each cycle. And they never vote on each other. Didn’t Aman say something back on page three about how proper distancing being about throwing minor Sus someone’s way but never actually placing your vote on them? And how Araris knew that too?

For it: It would explain a lot of interactions, and why only villagers have been voted out so far. These are, like, the three most experienced people here. When’s the last time in this game we’ve seen them seriously disagree on who to exe? But they haven’t voted out an Elim to this point.

Against it: What are chances the three most experienced players would all be elims? @A Jo in the Bush Were the elims chosen at random?

Team the second: the inactives.

This game has the feel of one where the elims sit back and whatch the village bicker among itself until they can finish it off. That’s usually not possible, but this game has an unusually large number of people who only occasionally post (and I, unfortunately, am one of them. Damn you, phone-confiscating school!). This group would be much harder to successfully sus out. It could include a combination of TOW (though I have a moderate V! Read of them after their last post), Iced, K-sauce, Polly, and possibly Coder. Also any others I’m forgetting because they haven’t been around.

For it: It would explain the unusually high number of inactives this game; they’ve agreed to be inactive so there wouldn’t be any evidence against them to turn into a train.

Against it: It just feels wrong. Someone smarter than me would probably be able to find a big problem in it. (Though if this one’s false, then the Analysts are likely to be Elims, and they surely won’t disabuse me of my notion if they are.)

Now I know there’s a big train against me, so I’ll disprove it in the most reliable way possible:

Flipping myself!

*pulls out Hemalurgic spike and points it toward chest*

BBB

 

Okay on a more serious note, if you're village can you, like, vote someone else, thank you

Edited September 8, 2025 by Amanuensis

[BigBadBagsworth He/him/his]

@Amanuensis I don’t get either of those photos

[Araris Valerian he/him]

19 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

Flipping myself!

*pulls out Hemalurgic spike and points it toward chest*

BBB

This seems a bit melodramatic given that only 2 people were voting on you (I think, not actually sure what the VC is right now).

 

20 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

But they haven’t voted out an Elim to this point.

This also seems to be overstated. We’ve had 2 exes so far, and they were both basically random candidates from C1.

Notably, Hoid, Aman, and myself haven’t reached a consensus on who to exe. We’re talking things out, because we all want to solve the game (or are at least making a good effort at looking like we do).

I will say, if Aman and I are elims together than y’all are toast.

[Amanuensis he/him]

25 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

@Amanuensis I don’t get either of those photos

I have a long, sordid history of self-voting when my death feels inevitable. Found it very amusing to be on the receiving side of it, and Kas / Drake aren't here, so it felt appropriate to bring in the memes. That said, I don't think we're at that stage quite for you yet, friendo  I would genuinely prefer you put your vote to better use

21 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I will say, if Aman and I are elims together than y’all are toast.

Honestly a shame we're not  but if I was just meta tunneling you and we are village bros, I will gladly accept your kinship

Edited September 8, 2025 by Amanuensis

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

52 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

TBH I am very tempted to say this slot is lock town and call it a day

['it' being trying to generate a more thorough read of TOW, that is, not the literal day]

What makes you read TOW as Town?

I have a pretty neutral read on him right now

28 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

Team the first: The analysts

 Aman, Araris, and Hoid.

If that's the elim team, village is screwed 

Seriously though, that team makes 0 sense

If we were on the same page, why would we be talking so much? Logically, we would just lay back and let the thread fall into inactivity - maybe argue a little for fun, but not to this extent.

Honestly, both of your teams feel very surface level to me

You basically said "the people who are talking the most, and everyone else"

30 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

*pulls out Hemalurgic spike and points it toward chest*

BBB

*gasps*

I definitely need to RP a reaction to this

But seriously, I don't think this clears you

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I will say, if Aman and I are elims together than y’all are toast.

[Doc12]

Hello friends, I am finally back in my own home! Prepare for a lot

First of all, Araris, c'mon. I mentioned from the very beginning that I was going to be out the entire weekend due to IRL reasons and brought it up in cycle 1. Maybe that was on me for playing a game where I knew I would be inactive for a couple cycles, but I feel like I communicated that as best as I could. 

Alright, going by players. 

1. ThatOneWorldhopper. Senior priest in our court. Has popped in at the beginning of every cycle to make a comment, but otherwise seems not very active in thread. The only thing I have on them that might be alignment indicative is that in cycle 2 they made a comment about how I was very quiet and wondered if that was a sign of me being active in another doc. Our Court has honestly been very quiet, so to me this didn't feel performative, and seemed like genuine wondering. 

2. Penguin. Honestly, I like Penguin. In our doc and in thread, they expressed that they didn't think the Elims caused the Cycle 1 switch from Twinstorm to TUH, but thought that the Elims were involved. The way they've been acting re: strong opinions that they refuse to really elaborate on is kinda consistent with their playstyle last game, but it's honestly NAI for me. 

3. Aman. Oh Aman. I like and respect you a lot, I really do, but I'm sensing some hypocrisy in this thread   

6 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Doc could honestly go either way, I am vaguely reminded of his LG30 play but that was so long ago that he could have evolved/devolved or since I am an old man now I could just have faulty memory. Basically he is just kinda there chiming in with small helpful things and RPing while remaining out of the spotlight

6 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

it's all about airing suspicions but never cementing your vote on your ally and finding excuses to shoot others first)

 Aside from your vote on Hoid Slayer that you rescinded promptly, you have been very nice and discussion heavy this cycle, but have not actually voted on anyone or come to any conclusion. If there's an elim between you and Araris, I am leaning more towards you. Who are you actually going to vote for this cycle?

4. Ksauce. I voted on KSauce last cycle. Similar to Penguin (And honestly I think Penguin just took what I said in the doc and repeated it) I thought the surge in activity and grasp of game mechanics new to me when in past games they generally seemed quiet and confused. And yes, as they pointed out, they were evil last game. 

18 hours ago, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren said:

Windrunner's Divine Breath ability... basically makes someone a Thug. It'd be disastrous if an elim got it. 

This post feels a little weird to me. I remain suspicious because of the strong interest in trying to figure out Courts and Court/Seniority mechanics when Hoid Slayer confirmed that wasn't something they discussed in doc. I don't trust them for now. 

5. CD. Coming up a little blank here. Inconclusive. They claim their highest (and only) e!reads are Twinstorm and BBB. They voted BBB a few times before switching, claiming it was because they didn't think BBB was going to be exed. Honestly don't know. 

6. Hoid Slayer. Really like Hoid Slayer. You're working very hard to analyze things and have strong if/then reasoning. 

8. I like Araris, apart from being slightly miffed about your suspicion of me. I am all for being suspicious of me for things I've actually done, but my impression is that you're upset at me for the way I parked my vote on Twinstorm early on, and that I've been very quiet. 

9. BBB. Uh. Confused, especially given his recent vote just as I was typing up this post. I did dislike the way they were so focused on Twinstorm, but given the flip it seems weird.

I like Aman's thing. So here. 

players I kind of trust

Hoid Slayer, Araris, Penguin

players I want to to trust but don't quite yet.

Aman 

Players I would happily exe right now

Ksauce, BBB, CD, Worldhopper

 

Of those four, the only one that really rung any alarm bells is Ksauce, but I'm willing to change that after another sweep through D2 and considering pairings. 

Edited September 8, 2025 by Doc12

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, Doc12 said:

First of all, Araris, c'mon. I mentioned from the very beginning that I was going to be out the entire weekend due to IRL reasons and brought it up in cycle 1. Maybe that was on me for playing a game where I knew I would be inactive for a couple cycles, but I feel like I communicated that as best as I could. 

Hey, I specifically didn’t vote you this cycle or try and focus discussion around you while you were gone. My suspicion of you came mostly from looking at the vote counts. If I’m village, then either all the elims that voted C2 voted on TwinStorm (which says something about KSauce and BBB), or you are an elim.

Which I suppose is consistent with your vote on KSauce.