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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

If BBB is Village, we most likely lose

I like your reasoning, but I think exeing KSauce this cycle is safer than risking  BBB is Village and losing, because I have been reading BBB as Village this whole time.

I still fully read BBB as elim, just like I did last 2 cycles. You imply there is no risk in KSauce, but how does that hold up?

Edited by CoderDrag0n8
Posted
7 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@Araris Valerian can you explain your Doc and BBB suspicions for me?

Mostly from VC analysis and an assumption that the elims have been voting. That assumption is based on the Polly kill, which I would guess comes from someone who is upset with the activity levels.

Posted
57 minutes ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

I still fully read BBB as elim, just like I did last 2 cycles. You imply there is no risk in KSauce, but how does that hold up?

I say less risk, not no risk

Posted
1 hour ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Why dont we find out? BBB

I do want to say, I have expressed in the past that my 2 reads were e!Twin and e!BBB, and I was unsure the whole time what the exact VC was (Like you said, it was confusing). My last minute vote switch was because I was very confused at the vote count, and thought that the Twin train had more people, and was an early e!read that we had not resolved yet. I also wanted to be on the train that got the elim. Again, I was wrong.

I, personally, dont think e!BBB makes me elim, but you do. So, looking at this from your perspective, it is better to exe BBB and that will show e!me or v!me. From my perspective, a BBB exe ends in only good. Either we get an elim out, and maybe I get exed next in the process, or my name is cleared. I dont see any other way to clear my name, and have no more e!reads.

Well...

We do have to keep in mind that a BBB exe (or ANY exe) doesn't necessarily end in good. In fact, depending on elim count, we could be dying here.

53 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I like your reasoning, but I think exeing KSauce this cycle is safer than risking  BBB is Village and losing, because I have been reading BBB as Village this whole time.

What about BBB reads Village to you?

What about KSauce reads elim?

I gave my reasoning, let's hear yours

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Mostly from VC analysis and an assumption that the elims have been voting. That assumption is based on the Polly kill, which I would guess comes from someone who is upset with the activity levels.

That's all you've got to say?

I want to hear as much of your analysis as I can

I would also like to hear any theories you have about the Polly kill, because it utterly confuses me

Evinir was here.

Ekkar's mind reeled in confusion, blood pounding in his ears as he walked the silent corridors of the Court of Gods. He had received hardly any sleep at night, the entire time spent analyzing. In anticipation. The confident high of yesterday was replaced by shock, itchy stress, and a growing fear. This was real.

Four priests were dead. Ekkar could have been one of them. Could still be.

And Evinir was here.

After passing out past midnight, Ekkar had awoken on the floor of his quarters to see a glimpse of light streaming in. In a daze, not thinking clearly, he had retraced the familiar steps to Elsecaller's quarters before realizing. Now, he stood before the entrance, unsure of what to do. His feet had led him here, but he knew nothing awaited him past those doors. Nothing but memories. Finally, a voice broke the silence.

"Ekkar Loral?"

Ekkar turned to see a slight girl standing before him. She averted her gaze, looking at the floor, arms crossed holding some papers in front of her chest. In an instant, Ekkar realized how he must look. He hadn't washed in days, and his heaving chest was covered in sweat from stress. Not to mention his clothes. For a while, he just looked at the girl, and she fidgeted nervously. Finally, she pushed forth the papers she was holding.

"Your reassignment," she said meekly.

Reassignment? Realization set in. He grabbed the papers.

"Thank you," he said. She still stood there, fidgeting, occasionally looking up at him. She was young. Really young. It took him a second to open his mouth again. "Uh... you can go now."

"Right! Of course." She scurried away, leaving Ekkar alone once more.

He watched her go, everything a blur, into finally raising the papers to read them. Court of Protecting. He was to serve Windrunner, along with... Arlun and CD. Right. He had asked to be placed with them. Standing alone in the massive hall, Ekkar swiftly stuffed the reassignment in the pocket of his robes and began to drag his feet towards the new Court. Leaving the past behind.

He was so preoccupied with the reassignment, Ekkar didn't notice the note stuffed between the papers, right where the girl would have missed it.

Posted
Just now, Hoid Slayer said:

What about BBB reads Village to you?

What about KSauce reads elim?

I gave my reasoning, let's hear yours

And if I don't have any reasoning?

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I like your reasoning, but I think exeing KSauce this cycle is safer than risking  BBB is Village and losing, because I have been reading BBB as Village this whole time.

Coming from you, I lean village on this post. Could you elaborate though? If you’re just going off your gut that’s fine, but are there any posts either of those players have made that stuck out to you?

1 hour ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Why dont we find out? BBB

I do want to say, I have expressed in the past that my 2 reads were e!Twin and e!BBB, and I was unsure the whole time what the exact VC was (Like you said, it was confusing). My last minute vote switch was because I was very confused at the vote count, and thought that the Twin train had more people, and was an early e!read that we had not resolved yet. I also wanted to be on the train that got the elim. Again, I was wrong.

I, personally, dont think e!BBB makes me elim, but you do. So, looking at this from your perspective, it is better to exe BBB and that will show e!me or v!me. From my perspective, a BBB exe ends in only good. Either we get an elim out, and maybe I get exed next in the process, or my name is cleared. I dont see any other way to clear my name, and have no more e!reads.

I’m really not a fan of advocating for another info exe, especially when it is again unclear how illuminating a village flip will be. I certainly would be inclined to exe you on a v!BBB flip based on this post. Not to mention your over-concern with clearing yourself when you haven’t really garnered significant suspicion all game. Kinda tempted to vote you now. Also, there are probably 3 elims, so I’m extremely troubled that you are unable to conceive of any others. Even e!BBB would have 2 teammates! Couldn’t one of them be a better exe than BBB?

23 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

That's all you've got to say?

I want to hear as much of your analysis as I can

I would also like to hear any theories you have about the Polly kill, because it utterly confuses me

So I start with the Polly kill. Usually elims don’t kill as much in their own activity bracket, since it makes hiding harder. Polly’s activity was low enough that we didn’t get any specific info from her death. Anyway, that makes me think that 2-3 of the elims voted both cycles (I’m fairly confident in a 3-elim team). I have light village reads on TOW and Penguin both for their posts and because, as low actives, they don’t fit the NK profile quite as well. From last cycle’s votes that suggests 1-3 elims in Doc, BBB, KSauce, CD, and you. I’m granting you a temporary reprieve because you’re pulling a lot of weight right now. 

If KSauce and BBB are both elim, then of course BBB would flip red. If only one of them is, it’s more likely to be BBB, since both BBB voters have flipped village. If neither of them are elim, then the elims wouldn’t have cared too much about exeing TwinStorm, so e!Doc fits nicely into that world. And I checked last night that nothing in the D1 votes was inconsistent with any of this.

Of course, CD’s posts today make me fairly suspicious of him. If BBB is village, we could have a CD/Doc team. Again, I would have voted Doc but he’s not going to be giving us much to work with moving forward, so I figure it’s better to interrogate folks that will talk back.

Edited by Araris Valerian
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Mostly from VC analysis and an assumption that the elims have been voting. That assumption is based on the Polly kill, which I would guess comes from someone who is upset with the activity levels.

Hrm.

13 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

...

Then why are you even taking this stance?

Hrrrrm

 

Quick everyone list 3 players they trust the most, 3 players they want dead ASAP, and 2 players that you are indifferent on. Ty. (I basically did this with my colorized reads)

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted
2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Coming from you, I lean village on this post. Could you elaborate though? If you’re just going off your gut that’s fine, but are there any posts either of those players have made that stuck out to you?

I’m really not a fan of advocating for another info exe, especially when it is again unclear how illuminating a village flip will be. I certainly would be inclined to exe you on a v!BBB flip based on this post. Not to mention your over-concern with clearing yourself when you haven’t really garnered significant suspicion all game. Kinda tempted to vote you now. Also, there are probably 3 elims, so I’m extremely troubled that you are unable to conceive of any others. Even e!BBB would have 2 teammates! Couldn’t one of them be a better exe than BBB?

So I start with the Polly kill. Usually elims don’t kill as much in their own activity bracket, since it makes hiding harder. Polly’s activity was low enough that we didn’t get any specific info from her death. Anyway, that makes me think that 2-3 of the elims voted both cycles (I’m fairly confident in a 3-elim team). I have light village reads on TOW and Penguin both for their posts and because, as low actives, they don’t fit the NK profile quite as well. From last cycle’s votes that suggests 1-3 elims in Doc, BBB, KSauce, CD, and you. I’m granting you a temporary reprieve because you’re pulling a lot of weight right now. 

If KSauce and BBB are both elim, then of course BBB would flip red. If only one of them is, it’s more likely to be BBB, since both BBB voters have flipped village. If neither of them are elim, then the elims wouldn’t have cared too much about exeing TwinStorm, so e!Doc fits nicely into that world. And I checked last night that nothing in the D1 votes was inconsistent with any of this.

Of course, CD’s posts today make me fairly suspicious of him. If BBB is village, we could have a CD/Doc team. Again, I would have voted Doc but he’s not going to be giving us much to work with moving forward, so I figure it’s better to interrogate folks that will talk back.

The more active you get, the more I'm liking you, even if the fact I'm alive is a little weird

I also feel like CD has been acting somewhat weird this cycle, particularly in his attempts to clear himself and eagerness to kill BBB

Maybe I need to reconsider their potential team...

To be honest, I don't fully agree with your theorizing that Polly's death means the elims are all active, but at least one or two of them definitely are

Also, I'd like to go over something Araris mentioned in our doc.

There is a world in which the elims actually benefitted from keeping TwinStorm alive, as that would automatically keep him in the queue for future exes and allow them to control the cycle of exes

In this world, my reasoning for Aman being villa is rendered moot, so it's forcing me to reconsider that read.

Going over Aman's other behavior:

- Voting Polly after I voted Polly, without acknowledging my vote in C1

- Backing Araris on Penguin train

- Switches vote from Penguin to TUH last minute to cinch C1 exe, again saying he didn't see my vote

C2:

- Says he was indifferent between TUH and TwinStorm, and doesn't vote

In a world in which Aman is elim, and the elims are using this strategy:

Aman is incompatible with BBB, so that's pretty important.

Aaaand that's really all I can think of

Personally, I don't think it's very likely that the elims are behaving like this, but thank you Araris for bringing it to my attention

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Hrm.

Hrrrrm

 

Quick everyone list 3 players they trust the most, 3 players they want dead ASAP, and 3 players that you are indifferent on. Ty. (I basically did this with my colorized reads)

Well, I've already done this too, sort of

I find this post kinda weird, so my v!read on you is slowly fading

I wouldn't be so brash as to say I want anyone dead ASAP, but if I had to list players from most sus to least sus, descending:

BBB

CD

KSauce

You

Araris

Penguin and TOW I have no read on, but I think one of them could definitely be elim

Doc

 

Posted
43 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Well...

We do have to keep in mind that a BBB exe (or ANY exe) doesn't necessarily end in good. In fact, depending on elim count, we could be dying here.

What about BBB reads Village to you?

What about KSauce reads elim?

I gave my reasoning, let's hear yours

That's all you've got to say?

I want to hear as much of your analysis as I can

I would also like to hear any theories you have about the Polly kill, because it utterly confuses me

Evinir was here.

Ekkar's mind reeled in confusion, blood pounding in his ears as he walked the silent corridors of the Court of Gods. He had received hardly any sleep at night, the entire time spent analyzing. In anticipation. The confident high of yesterday was replaced by shock, itchy stress, and a growing fear. This was real.

Four priests were dead. Ekkar could have been one of them. Could still be.

And Evinir was here.

After passing out past midnight, Ekkar had awoken on the floor of his quarters to see a glimpse of light streaming in. In a daze, not thinking clearly, he had retraced the familiar steps to Elsecaller's quarters before realizing. Now, he stood before the entrance, unsure of what to do. His feet had led him here, but he knew nothing awaited him past those doors. Nothing but memories. Finally, a voice broke the silence.

"Ekkar Loral?"

Ekkar turned to see a slight girl standing before him. She averted her gaze, looking at the floor, arms crossed holding some papers in front of her chest. In an instant, Ekkar realized how he must look. He hadn't washed in days, and his heaving chest was covered in sweat from stress. Not to mention his clothes. For a while, he just looked at the girl, and she fidgeted nervously. Finally, she pushed forth the papers she was holding.

"Your reassignment," she said meekly.

Reassignment? Realization set in. He grabbed the papers.

"Thank you," he said. She still stood there, fidgeting, occasionally looking up at him. She was young. Really young. It took him a second to open his mouth again. "Uh... you can go now."

"Right! Of course." She scurried away, leaving Ekkar alone once more.

He watched her go, everything a blur, into finally raising the papers to read them. Court of Protecting. He was to serve Windrunner, along with... Arlun and CD. Right. He had asked to be placed with them. Standing alone in the massive hall, Ekkar swiftly stuffed the reassignment in the pocket of his robes and began to drag his feet towards the new Court. Leaving the past behind.

He was so preoccupied with the reassignment, Ekkar didn't notice the note stuffed between the papers, right where the girl would have missed it.

21 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Coming from you, I lean village on this post. Could you elaborate though? If you’re just going off your gut that’s fine, but are there any posts either of those players have made that stuck out to you?

I’m really not a fan of advocating for another info exe, especially when it is again unclear how illuminating a village flip will be. I certainly would be inclined to exe you on a v!BBB flip based on this post. Not to mention your over-concern with clearing yourself when you haven’t really garnered significant suspicion all game. Kinda tempted to vote you now. Also, there are probably 3 elims, so I’m extremely troubled that you are unable to conceive of any others. Even e!BBB would have 2 teammates! Couldn’t one of them be a better exe than BBB?

So I start with the Polly kill. Usually elims don’t kill as much in their own activity bracket, since it makes hiding harder. Polly’s activity was low enough that we didn’t get any specific info from her death. Anyway, that makes me think that 2-3 of the elims voted both cycles (I’m fairly confident in a 3-elim team). I have light village reads on TOW and Penguin both for their posts and because, as low actives, they don’t fit the NK profile quite as well. From last cycle’s votes that suggests 1-3 elims in Doc, BBB, KSauce, CD, and you. I’m granting you a temporary reprieve because you’re pulling a lot of weight right now. 

If KSauce and BBB are both elim, then of course BBB would flip red. If only one of them is, it’s more likely to be BBB, since both BBB voters have flipped village. If neither of them are elim, then the elims wouldn’t have cared too much about exeing TwinStorm, so e!Doc fits nicely into that world. And I checked last night that nothing in the D1 votes was inconsistent with any of this.

Of course, CD’s posts today make me fairly suspicious of him. If BBB is village, we could have a CD/Doc team. Again, I would have voted Doc but he’s not going to be giving us much to work with moving forward, so I figure it’s better to interrogate folks that will talk back.

It isn't an info exe, I genuinly think he is elim. He is my highest suspect.

19 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Hrm.

Hrrrrm

 

Quick everyone list 3 players they trust the most, 3 players they want dead ASAP, and 2 players that you are indifferent on. Ty. (I basically did this with my colorized reads)

Trust most: Hoid Slayer, Ksauce, TOW

Indifferent: Aman, Araris

Dead: BBB, I guess Iced, and i guess Doc?

Posted
9 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Would exe in a heartbeat: CD, Doc, BBB

Would not exe: TOW, Hoid, Penguin

Would exe in 2 heartbeats: Aman, KSauce

Quite the turnaround on Iced there

Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I find this post kinda weird, so my v!read on you is slowly fading

Thank you for the quick reply, though I already have you in my town core so hopefully others will chime in soon.

Can you explain that bit I quoted quick? The hrms is my way of taking note of something without giving the game away. I am about 90% confident on one elim atm but I am searching for the partners, hence me asking for the info I did

Also keep in mind I am mobile posting from work whenever I can steal time away, since I dont want a repeat of my activity C2

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Quite the turnaround on Iced there

Yeah, well, it’s hard to get a good read on quiet folks. And being honest, most of what he’s done this game that I’ve objected to fits better as (what I consider to be) suboptimal village play as opposed to nefarious elim plots

 

7 minutes ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Trust most: Hoid Slayer, Ksauce, TOW

Hoid Slayer I can see, but where are these other two reads coming from?

Posted
30 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Quick everyone list 3 players they trust the most, 3 players they want dead ASAP, and 2 players that you are indifferent on. Ty. (I basically did this with my colorized reads)

Alright, here you go.

Hoid Slayer. Doc. CD

KSauce. Araris. TOW

Aman. BBB

Posted
2 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

Alright, here you go.

Hoid Slayer. Doc. CD

KSauce. Araris. TOW

Aman. BBB

What about Doc and CD read village for you?

What about Araris and KSauce read elim? I am guessing TOW is there out of whOmegalol

Also why are you indifferent on BBB

Posted
3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, well, it’s hard to get a good read on quiet folks. And being honest, most of what he’s done this game that I’ve objected to fits better as (what I consider to be) suboptimal village play as opposed to nefarious elim plots

 

Hoid Slayer I can see, but where are these other two reads coming from?

Well, I don't have to many reads, so I built it from the ground up. when I got to the indifferent part, I had 5 and put the 2 I was most indifferent in the indifference. Then redirected the ones I was a bit more trustworthy on (gut feeling) up to trust.

Posted (edited)

Oh, can everyone list their starting docs? I was with Gaia and Polly and haven't left Willshapers since lol

 

- At least 1 baddie in starting Bondsmiths

- At least 1 baddie in starting Elsecallers

- Willshaper doc clean

- That leaves Stonewards?

You would think that a GM would spread the elims between as many docs as possible but I do suspect one got doubled up for the troll / in order to curb meta analysis

9 minutes ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Well, I don't have to many reads, so I built it from the ground up. when I got to the indifferent part, I had 5 and put the 2 I was most indifferent in the indifference. Then redirected the ones I was a bit more trustworthy on (gut feeling) up to trust.

Side note, this is why I like color gradient lists 😛

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted (edited)

 

  1. Worldhopper
  2. Penguin
  3. Doc
  4. KSauce
  5. Coder
  6. Araris
  7. BBB

Araris seemingly unpaired with BBB & Doc (questionable as he knows how to properly distance, it's all about airing suspicions but never cementing your vote on your ally and finding excuses to shoot others first)

Worldhopper probably just a low posting villager, is my gut take there

Penguin, BBB and Coder all seem overtly sus but I doubt that is the full team and need to figure out how to differentiate them

Doc could honestly go either way, I am vaguely reminded of his LG30 play but that was so long ago that he could have evolved/devolved or since I am an old man now I could just have faulty memory. Basically he is just kinda there chiming in with small helpful things and RPing while remaining out of the spotlight

KSauce remains a black hole in my gray matter, which I need to fix with an ISO when I have time

Someone please start narrowing down pairings for me cause I am short on time and lazy 😛

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This would make me an elim, since TwinStorm and TUH were my fellow priests.

Indeed it would 🤫

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh, can everyone list their starting docs? I was with Gaia and Polly and haven't left Willshapers since lol

 

- At least 1 baddie in starting Bondsmiths

- At least 1 baddie in starting Elsecallers

- Willshaper doc clean

- That leaves Stonewards?

You would think that a GM would spread the elims between as many docs as possible but I do suspect one got doubled up for the troll / in order to curb meta analysis

Side note, this is why I like color gradient lists 😛

So Willshapers starting was Gaea, Polly, and Aman

Elsecallers starting was me (Hoid), CD, KSauce, and BBB

34 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Thank you for the quick reply, though I already have you in my town core so hopefully others will chime in soon.

Can you explain that bit I quoted quick? The hrms is my way of taking note of something without giving the game away. I am about 90% confident on one elim atm but I am searching for the partners, hence me asking for the info I did

Also keep in mind I am mobile posting from work whenever I can steal time away, since I dont want a repeat of my activity C2

Actually, I like your explanation here quite a bit

I look forward to seeing your read, as I'm pretty lost here.

We need more people posting

@ThatOneWorldhopper@IcedOutPenguin@KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren anything would be nice.

Oh, and

16 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This would make me an elim, since TwinStorm and TUH were my fellow priests.

Starting Bondsmiths are TwinStorm, TUH, and Araris

Which makes starting Stonewards TOW, Penguin, and Doc

I don't think we should read into the starting Courts too much, though

@A Jo in the Bush, were the starting Courts randomized or did you pick them specifically?

Edited by Hoid Slayer
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

So Willshapers starting was Gaea, Polly, and Aman

Elsecallers starting was me (Hoid), CD, KSauce, and BBB

Actually, I like your explanation here quite a bit

I look forward to seeing your read, as I'm pretty lost here.

We need more people posting

@ThatOneWorldhopper@IcedOutPenguin@KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren anything would be nice.

Oh, and

Starting Bondsmiths are TwinStorm, TUH, and Araris

Which makes starting Stonewards TOW, Penguin, and Doc

Alright thank you, that is helpful. Interesting that Elsecallers started with 4; I forgot the starting player count so assumed it was 3x4=12

Obviously I don't expect anyone to take the Willshaper doc starting clean with anything more than a grain of salt until I flip, but since I am the last one left, let's maybe list who we think the elim from each Court is mostly likely. Try not to give an easy answer though, deeply consider each one if you can

 

I will go:

- Bondsmith: Araris

- Elsecaller: BBB or Coder

- Stoneward: Penguin or Doc

- Willshaper: None but since I'm the only one left, it would have to be me.

 

This is based off my current worldview but I will try to do a full reread and multiple ISOs tonight or tomorrow, since I finally have a day off

Edited by Amanuensis
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