Quick Fix 76: Judgement on the Shores of the Purelake

[Aeternum]

6 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

I think the thing with ties is that while it is very possible that the elims saw 3 innocents up for death and decided to do nothing, villagers who have no information are much more likely to go 'might as well see which one dies and go from there' while elims would be much more motivated to save one person from the vote. 

?

8 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

I am also confused why no one cared to vote for CD. I understand again that this is their first game and people want to show mercy, but to me it was weird how up to 3 people said that they were weird but refused to act on that suspicion.

It's generally frowned upon to kill a new player this early here.

[Ookla the Newt she/her]

12 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Mafia is based on interpreting physical cues, whilst SE has a much larger focus on what they say - and everything they say is specially curated so as not to reveal anything (if you’re an elim). Scary thing is, an elim could go an entire game theoretically without saying anything incriminating - so really, the emphasis is less on what they say, and more who they support - or don’t. Except even then, there’re layers upon layers… so yeah, a lot of it is just us winging it.

Okay, thanks! (also yeah I'm starting to see the layers on layers bit...)

 

Current Leanings

No particular opinions on: Aeternum, Kaladfin / TwinStorm, Doc12 / Javert, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren, Striker, Kelsier Apologist (I know I'm veryyy neutral on a lot of people)

Hoid Slayer: Mentioned that he's worried elims might target him, which might be something similar to something I've seen before in a mafia game where a kid convinced the doctor to always protect him bc he was the "detective" (he was the mafia) or maybe I'm just reading too deeply into that comment.

Penguin: Not really suspicious of him anymore, he was like 50% a "I have no idea what I'm doing lemme go with a vague hunch" vote. Kinda acting weird during this Cycle, though. Very vehement he's not an Evildoer

Askthepizzaguy: I honestly think PizzaGuy's town. If he was mafia (or whatever term is being used *checks rules* Evildoers) he wouldn't be standing out this much. I can understand not knowing who to vote for - I half randomly picked based on a hunch. 

CoderDrag0n8: Maybe pushing innocence a little too hard, but might be bc he's new, and doesn't know exactly how this works, so I'll give him a pass for now.

Edited August 8, 2025 by Booknewt

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

12 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Hoid Slayer, you have explained your reasoning of why you trust Penguin. I guess I am still confused because you said you were suspicious of Pizza still, despite them giving you clear thoughts which was what you asked for in the beginning. 

Just vibes.

And he talks too much

[Askthepizzagal He/him]

1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I get that

And I know I’m guilty of some of that myself

That's all I need to hear.

My goal here, based on the following principles-

1. Presume innocence first, rather than guilt
2. If the game seems too easy, it probably is
3. Find alternatives to the simplest solution
4. Uninformed people guess wrong, because they're uninformed, therefore, mercy is indicated.

 

Means I have work to do, which also means I need to get some actual sleep, and solve for worlds where the game isn't blatantly simple.

For reference, I've been sitting in front of this game for almost 14 hours, and half of those hours, people weren't even posting.

It is optimistic to say the least to think that multiple guilties were under severe pressure at end of last day.

I do have to consider it, as a world, but I need to consider the alternatives at least equally.

My character Greebas is a big believer in patience, wisdom, thinking rationally, and being merciful. 

I didn't just invent those qualities as something to admire about a fictional character, I genuinely believe thats how you win games, because the revenge cycle just kills innocents.

If I find alternatives I will suggest them. It's my duty to look.

But in the meantime, until Penguin begins to make sense, they can probably be actually considered for real for an elimination because, I don't care who you are, if you are unable to handle mild criticism that random vote flailing is an ineffective solving method, you probably aren't legitimately solving especially after seeing the results that come with it, namely, the most important town roles dying. If all that happens after that is you double down on accusing the guy willing to die ahead of those PRs, again, for no reason you're not looking for guilty people.

If all they do today is park their vote on me and continue to assume guilt and do nothing with it, on innocent people, forming a bogus conspiracy theory out of the idea that me doing nothing at all to earn their vote or hurt anyone else is the person responsible for our predicament, that's not really looking for answers.

It can only be one of two things at that point-

1. The failure to admit mistake

2. The desire to kill the innocent

And unfortunately, 1, is the same as 2, just worse for the team since it's a self-own, not an enemy goal on us.

[Aeternum]

5 minutes ago, Booknewt said:

CoderDrag0n8: Maybe pushing innocence a little too hard, but might be bc he's new, and doesn't know exactly how this works, so I'll give him a pass for now.

Do you have any specific examples that led you to this conclusion?

4 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

Just vibes.

And he talks too much

Knowing Pizza, it's unsurprising how much he's talking 

Can you respond to my questions when you have a chance btw.

3 minutes ago, Askthepizzaguy said:

For reference, I've been sitting in front of this game for almost 14 hours, and half of those hours, people weren't even posting.

Sir, I invited you to this game to have a chill game where you don't need to do that smh.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

12 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Given this, who are you planning to vote for this cycle? 

Honestly? I don’t know

Think I’ll let things play out for now, and rest my vote for a while as a poke on Penguin for his flailing about at the start of this cycle.

1 minute ago, Aeternum said:

Sir, I invited you to this game to have a chill game where you don't need to do that smh

 real

But hey, we appreciate the commitment!

 

‘Night, folks

[Askthepizzagal He/him]

18 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

I am also confused why no one cared to vote for CD. I understand again that this is their first game and people want to show mercy, but to me it was weird how up to 3 people said that they were weird but refused to act on that suspicion. 

A second day and not reading town will do it for me.

Some folks aren't willing to give others a full day, or the time of day. I think you get better info from waiting and seeing on people.

None of the folks involved are going anywhere.

They have a smaller pool of suspects to sort through.

There is now an anchor point of "these two people ARE innocent", which is a place to work from.

You need to be blind to still think I'm guilty. All I was thinking about at end of day yesterday was leaving a nice story for people to read, capping off kind of a neat narrative I hope people genuinely enjoyed. That was my headspace.

You have to now have a basis of forming an opinion on the folks who formed an opinion on me, too.

Thus, you can see the point behind why I do things that aren't as straightforward as vote random people for no reason, or flail and self preserve.

Either guilty parties were under pressure yesterday, or they weren't, and either one implies a whole lot about the vote tally.

Insert guilty parties into the vote tally under either metric- They can only be in a few places, either way.

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

7 minutes ago, Askthepizzaguy said:

But in the meantime, until Penguin begins to make sense, they can probably be actually considered for real for an elimination because, I don't care who you are, if you are unable to handle mild criticism that random vote flailing is an ineffective solving method, you probably aren't legitimately solving especially after seeing the results that come with it, namely, the most important town roles dying. If all that happens after that is you double down on accusing the guy willing to die ahead of those PRs, again, for no reason you're not looking for guilty people.

...

I'll pretend you didn't just insult me to my face.

32 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

This is a post of all time.

What exactly has Pizza been doing to antagonize you...?

What are you referring to by "there was a setup"? In v!you worlds, do elims even need to "set up" on TOW like that, if that's how you're referring to it?

I'm flattered you think I threadpulled, but what exactly did I do to set this up? Again, I need a specific on what exactly you're referring to by there being a setup.

You've voted Pizza here while saying that you think I set something up. Can you explain your vote a bit more here?

Mafia experience doesn't really equal SE experience in some games, but forum mafia experience often does, specifically in this game because it's very normal by forum mafia standards (where I play, at least).

Hang on, I think I'm figuring something out.

What's everyone's reads on @Doc12?

[Askthepizzagal He/him]

3 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Sir, I invited you to this game to have a chill game where you don't need to do that smh.

Yes, well, I randed my favorite role and alignment at the same time. What do you want me to do, not play that to the fullest?

Besides, if I didn't sit there, there would be zero people for folks to talk to half the time. People would post, and then vanish for hours.

 

[Ookla the Newt she/her]

2 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Do you have any specific examples that led you to this conclusion?

Prob the following (hopefully these work quotes have NOT been cooperative with me): First is kinda neutral-sounding, but sounds like its trying to be neutral sounding, but then again it sounds like something I'd say, so I might be reading too much into this, and second is prob intro-rp in retrospect, so I take back the negative lean as I type this out. 

22 hours ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

You know what?

that’s fair.

it may be wrong, but I understand the misunderatanding

On 8/6/2025 at 10:12 PM, CoderDrag0n8 said:

CD was confused. He knew in his heart that he was not a lawbreaker. It wasn't logical or anything, it was just a deep indescribable unignorable feeling. He tried to remember his past, but for this time, he was Innocent.

So who wasn't?

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

2 minutes ago, Askthepizzaguy said:

A second day and not reading town will do it for me.

Some folks aren't willing to give others a full day, or the time of day. I think you get better info from waiting and seeing on people.

None of the folks involved are going anywhere.

They have a smaller pool of suspects to sort through.

There is now an anchor point of "these two people ARE innocent", which is a place to work from.

You need to be blind to still think I'm guilty. All I was thinking about at end of day yesterday was leaving a nice story for people to read, capping off kind of a neat narrative I hope people genuinely enjoyed. That was my headspace.

You have to now have a basis of forming an opinion on the folks who formed an opinion on me, too.

Thus, you can see the point behind why I do things that aren't as straightforward as vote random people for no reason, or flail and self preserve.

Either guilty parties were under pressure yesterday, or they weren't, and either one implies a whole lot about the vote tally.

Insert guilty parties into the vote tally under either metric- They can only be in a few places, either way.

Care to illuminate us on what those places could be?

1 minute ago, Askthepizzaguy said:

Yes, well, I randed my favorite role and alignment at the same time. What do you want me to do, not play that to the fullest?

Passive role claiming? Kinda odd…

K, I reaaaaaally gotta go to bed now

[Askthepizzagal He/him]

2 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Care to illuminate us on what those places could be?

Yeah, absolutely.

But this game is a team game. 

This is part of it- every innocent person, in the game, has access to one piece of data I don't have, namely, absolute certainty their slot is innocent.

Which is why, everyone knows something I do not.

If you use your TMI on your slot, that you are town (assuming you are) your answers may be similar to mine, could be different. But one thing is for sure, you won't get your alignment wrong if you're town.

I might. I don't know that info.

But if you take the vote tally that I pulled from about 45 minutes prior to end of day 1, before the sudden vote shenaniganza on our PR, and also add in the AWOL person who is probably also town (just by random chance, they've done nothing to earn it)

Then post that tally twice.

In one of them, you assume zero guilty parties were voted twice in that tally, meaning, 2 votes on them.

In the other, you assume one or more guilty parties were voted twice.

Now, factor in who you think is actually town, too.

What are your answers?

Spoiler

Doesn't take long for me to come up with "if guilty people were being voted, they likely did this".

I already did that, assuming 2 were being voted that way.

But that's wrong a lot of the time, and if you're innocent in particular, you know that much.

So not a lot of reason to make sudden wagon movements at end of day in that world.

So what about the world where the wagons are on villagers. Therefore, where are the guilty people.

Well, if you cross off your own name and also the folks being wagoned, you have a small pool of folks.

Also, if my name is also crossed off, even smaller.

So you factor in your town reads either way.

Now, you can also toss your town reads for no reason and look at worlds where you're just dead wrong all over the place, and thats not a fun world to look at, but it's prudent to do so.

Just... probably think it's more like universe A where guilties weren't really under pressure and universe B where 2 of them can have been.

I happen to know the 2 vote wagon on me was on an innocent, so I get to cross off that world personally, and if Penguin has his way, you all can.

 

[Doc12]

17 minutes ago, Askthepizzaguy said:

For reference, I've been sitting in front of this game for almost 14 hours, and half of those hours, people weren't even posting.

All I was thinking about at end of day yesterday was leaving a nice story for people to read, capping off kind of a neat narrative I hope people genuinely enjoyed. That was my headspace.

I for one appreciate this  I'm usually a PM heavy player where I'd try to post 3-4 times per cycle but ping everyone in PMs every couple hours. I also do really like your RP and will try to engage with you more this cycle.

16 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I'll pretend you didn't just insult me to my face.

What's everyone's reads on @Doc12?

Also it's still a game where people have to accuse each other to win, I wouldn't take anything anyone says personally  

Edited August 8, 2025 by Doc12
edited because of a misquote

[Askthepizzagal He/him]

Oh yes.

A- wrong guesses (or right, you dont know yet if youre town) are allowed. No offense taken, just pointing out criticisms of the methodology. You can also throw darts, roll dice, or pick a card, and get similar results.

B- you're also allowed to be guilty. It's not a crime to randomly pick that alignment in a game. 

Either or is acceptable. But, if you accuse me for no reason, I get to say hey, you've accused me incorrectly for no reason and that's not gonna find guilty people and that makes you a liability regardless of alignment.

That's also valid and legal.

AAAAAAaaaaaand I need sleep. gngn

[Aeternum]

25 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

Hang on, I think I'm figuring something out.

Ok, I'm waiting.

25 minutes ago, Askthepizzaguy said:

Yes, well, I randed my favorite role and alignment at the same time. What do you want me to do, not play that to the fullest?

Besides, if I didn't sit there, there would be zero people for folks to talk to half the time. People would post, and then vanish for hours.

Ah so mafia roleblocker?

25 minutes ago, Booknewt said:

Prob the following (hopefully these work quotes have NOT been cooperative with me): First is kinda neutral-sounding, but sounds like its trying to be neutral sounding, but then again it sounds like something I'd say, so I might be reading too much into this, and second is prob intro-rp in retrospect, so I take back the negative lean as I type this out. 

Tyty. I ask because you directly parroted a point Iced made early d1, which I'm not a fan of you doing.

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

I think I know who two of them are.

Doc12, CoderDrag0n8

In the first cycle, he didn't post much, mostly doing vote counts, but he did cause a three-way tie, then, when it became a four-way tie, switched to put Coder out and Aeternum in. I will now do two scenarios.

1. Hoid Slayer is an Evildoer. He plans the switch to TOW to make sure that Aeternum doesn't die, a clever play that puts suspicion off Doc for 2 vote changes before the cycle switched. The conclusion to this one is that it's Doc, Aeter, and Hoid slayer. And Coder is safe.

2. Hoid Slayer is not an Evildoer. He vote switches to save me, and we read nothing more into it. Doc wouldn't have known he would've vote switched, and this clears Aeter, because we assume the Evildoers wouldn't leave it up to chance whether one of them got out cycle one. This scenario protects Coder and himself, knowing that none of the people getting out would be Evildoers. Conclusion, Aeter, Pizza, TOW (who was innocent), and myself are innocent, and Coder and Doc are Evildoers.

I think that voting Hoid slayer is probably our safest option. If he's guilty, we go from there. If he's innocent, we vote Doc.

Askthepizzaguy

Hoid Slayer

Edited August 8, 2025 by IcedOutPenguin

[KaladinsSenseOfHumourSpren He/Him]

3 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I think I know who two of them are.

Doc12, CoderDrag0n8

In the first cycle, he didn't post much, mostly doing vote counts, but he did cause a three-way tie, then, when it became a four-way tie, switched to put Coder out and Aeternum in. I will now do two scenarios.

1. Hoid Slayer is an Evildoer. He plans the switch to TOW to make sure that Aeternum doesn't die, a clever play that puts suspicion off Doc for 2 vote changes before the cycle switched. The conclusion to this one is that it's Doc, Aeter, and Hoid slayer. And Coder is safe.

2. Hoid Slayer is not an Evildoer. He vote switches to save me, and we read nothing more into it. Doc wouldn't have known he would've vote switched, and this clears Aeter, because we assume the Evildoers wouldn't leave it up to chance whether one of them got out cycle one. This scenario protects Coder and himself, knowing that none of the people getting out would be Evildoers. Conclusion, Aeter, Pizza, TOW (who was innocent), and myself are innocent, and Coder and Doc are Evildoers.

I think that voting Hoid slayer is probably our safest option. If he's guilty, we go from there. If he's innocent, we vote Doc.

Askthepizzaguy

Hoid Slayer

Alright, I think this makes sense.

If Hoid was an elim trying to save a teammate, they wouldn't be that obvious about it. Of course, it may just be that they are elims and are relying on us believing this so we think that they aren't. 

But I don't think so. So either he is a villager who really wanted Iced to live as he claims, or is taking blame off Doc and saving Aeter. Or Hoid is an elim trying to frame Doc and Aeter. 

OR Hoid could be saving both Iced and Aeter. 

Which I think is unlikely, I feel like the elims would've done something earlier if that was the case. Which could be the elims doing that intentionally so that I thought it unlikely that they did.

It's - and I'm quoting Dune - wheels within wheels within wheels within wheels.

Starseeker felt that it was too uncertain to vote yet.

[Aeternum]

4 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I think I know who two of them are.

Doc12, CoderDrag0n8

In the first cycle, he didn't post much, mostly doing vote counts, but he did cause a three-way tie, then, when it became a four-way tie, switched to put Coder out and Aeternum in. I will now do two scenarios.

1. Hoid Slayer is an Evildoer. He plans the switch to TOW to make sure that Aeternum doesn't die, a clever play that puts suspicion off Doc for 2 vote changes before the cycle switched. The conclusion to this one is that it's Doc, Aeter, and Hoid slayer. And Coder is safe.

2. Hoid Slayer is not an Evildoer. He vote switches to save me, and we read nothing more into it. Doc wouldn't have known he would've vote switched, and this clears Aeter, because we assume the Evildoers wouldn't leave it up to chance whether one of them got out cycle one. This scenario protects Coder and himself, knowing that none of the people getting out would be Evildoers. Conclusion, Aeter, Pizza, TOW (who was innocent), and myself are innocent, and Coder and Doc are Evildoers.

I think that voting Hoid slayer is probably our safest option. If he's guilty, we go from there. If he's innocent, we vote Doc.

Askthepizzaguy

Hoid Slayer

Ngl I've read this multiple times and I do not quite understand your worldview.

If I'm an elim, I just vote v!you cycle 1 to save myself lol. In world 1, e!Hoid Slayer just votes with me if needed. There is no need for e!me to ever plan a switch to TOW, in v!you worlds. The funny thing is you're kind of suggesting clearing me off of wagons regardless of other people's alignments off of the fact that I didn't technically properly self-pres, but anyways.

World 2 I don't really understand what you're saying. I am not sure how you're drawing the parallel between v!Hoid Slayer making CD and Doc always elims. What exactly makes those two always elims in that case? I'm extremely confused by your world 2 rn.

Your worldview looks like it fails to consider other players outside of me / Pizza / CD / Doc / Hoid Slayer. You are seemingly not considering 5 other players, if I'm counting correctly, so I'm curious as to why you didn't consider them.

@Askthepizzaguy thoughts on Iced's post? Also thoughts on whether Iced keeps perspective slipping because I keep feeling that way lol.

35 minutes ago, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren said:

Alright, I think this makes sense.

If Hoid was an elim trying to save a teammate, they wouldn't be that obvious about it. Of course, it may just be that they are elims and are relying on us believing this so we think that they aren't. 

But I don't think so. So either he is a villager who really wanted Iced to live as he claims, or is taking blame off Doc and saving Aeter. Or Hoid is an elim trying to frame Doc and Aeter. 

OR Hoid could be saving both Iced and Aeter. 

Which I think is unlikely, I feel like the elims would've done something earlier if that was the case. Which could be the elims doing that intentionally so that I thought it unlikely that they did.

It's - and I'm quoting Dune - wheels within wheels within wheels within wheels.

Starseeker felt that it was too uncertain to vote yet.

Huh.

You're overcomplicating EoD a lot. I am struggling to understand how some of your worldviews are possible atp but w/e.

This is probably town who just discovered what wifom is, though.

[KaladinsSenseOfHumourSpren He/Him]

3 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Huh.

You're overcomplicating EoD a lot. I am struggling to understand how some of your worldviews are possible atp but w/e.

This is probably town who just discovered what wifom is, though.

Too many acronyms, too little experience.

I don't know what any of these are.

Edited August 8, 2025 by KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren

[Askthepizzagal He/him]

1 minute ago, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren said:

Too many acronyms, too little experience.

I don't know what any of these are.

Wine in front of me, refers to a legendary scene from the movie The Princess Bride, where Vizzini "cleverly" deduces where his opponent has placed the poisoned wine, of the two goblets of wine, in front of him, or his opponent. They are in a battle of wits, a contest to the death, and they are to both drink the wine, and Vizzini is to determine based on his opinion of his opponent, whether he would put the poisoned wine in front of him, or in front of Vizzini, and Vizzini is to pick which goblet to drink from.

The idea being, only a great fool would reach for the wine that his opponent gave him, but maybe his opponent is too clever by half, and therefore would choose to put the poison in front of himself, but maybe he is even more clever than that... ho ho, and put the poison in front of Vizzini after all... etc.

Be back in a few hours.

[KaladinsSenseOfHumourSpren He/Him]

4 minutes ago, Askthepizzaguy said:

Wine in front of me, refers to a legendary scene from the movie The Princess Bride, where Vizzini "cleverly" deduces where his opponent has placed the poisoned wine, of the two goblets of wine, in front of him, or his opponent. They are in a battle of wits, a contest to the death, and they are to both drink the wine, and Vizzini is to determine based on his opinion of his opponent, whether he would put the poisoned wine in front of him, or in front of Vizzini, and Vizzini is to pick which goblet to drink from.

The idea being, only a great fool would reach for the wine that his opponent gave him, but maybe his opponent is too clever by half, and therefore would choose to put the poison in front of himself, but maybe he is even more clever than that... ho ho, and put the poison in front of Vizzini after all... etc.

Be back in a few hours.

Ahh alright.

But I still don't know what EoD or w/e means.

[Ookla the Newt she/her]

3 hours ago, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren said:

But I still don't know what EoD or w/e means.

Yeah, I have the same question

[TwinStorm He/Him]

11 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

YOU! IT WAS YOU!

You have done nothing but antagonize me throughout cycle one. 

Greebas 

I did say, Hoid Slayers' vote was... suspicius at best. BUT, it did save me, so I'm going to be giving him the benefit of the doubt. 

Something I learned recently, mafia experience ≠ SE experience.

I think there was a setup somewhere in the last cycle, but I can't quite place where it would've been, probably with the start of the TOW train.

My best bet for who wouldve set it up is actually you.

10 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

...

I'll pretend you didn't just insult me to my face.

Hang on, I think I'm figuring something out.

What's everyone's reads on @Doc12?

This is . . . messy accusations at best, in my opinion

10 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I think I know who two of them are.

Doc12, CoderDrag0n8

In the first cycle, he didn't post much, mostly doing vote counts, but he did cause a three-way tie, then, when it became a four-way tie, switched to put Coder out and Aeternum in. I will now do two scenarios.

1. Hoid Slayer is an Evildoer. He plans the switch to TOW to make sure that Aeternum doesn't die, a clever play that puts suspicion off Doc for 2 vote changes before the cycle switched. The conclusion to this one is that it's Doc, Aeter, and Hoid slayer. And Coder is safe.

2. Hoid Slayer is not an Evildoer. He vote switches to save me, and we read nothing more into it. Doc wouldn't have known he would've vote switched, and this clears Aeter, because we assume the Evildoers wouldn't leave it up to chance whether one of them got out cycle one. This scenario protects Coder and himself, knowing that none of the people getting out would be Evildoers. Conclusion, Aeter, Pizza, TOW (who was innocent), and myself are innocent, and Coder and Doc are Evildoers.

I think that voting Hoid slayer is probably our safest option. If he's guilty, we go from there. If he's innocent, we vote Doc.

Askthepizzaguy

Hoid Slayer

Actually, this does make some sense, but I do trust Doc12 to a certain extent. As he said, he plays by PMs, and posting vote counts is critical material for village, something elims don't want to do, since fog of war is one of the elim's best strategies. The vote is weird, but @Doc12 probably has some reasoning (or maybe he already posted in thread, I need to go back and reread ).

[Doc12]

5 hours ago, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren said:

But I still don't know what EoD or w/e means.

EoD = End of Day, typically the last 1-2 hours before the cycle ends

W/e= whatever

 

10 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I think I know who two of them are.

Doc12, CoderDrag0n8

In the first cycle, he didn't post much, mostly doing vote counts, but he did cause a three-way tie, then, when it became a four-way tie, switched to put Coder out and Aeternum in. I will now do two scenarios.

1. Hoid Slayer is an Evildoer. He plans the switch to TOW to make sure that Aeternum doesn't die, a clever play that puts suspicion off Doc for 2 vote changes before the cycle switched. The conclusion to this one is that it's Doc, Aeter, and Hoid slayer. And Coder is safe.

2. Hoid Slayer is not an Evildoer. He vote switches to save me, and we read nothing more into it. Doc wouldn't have known he would've vote switched, and this clears Aeter, because we assume the Evildoers wouldn't leave it up to chance whether one of them got out cycle one. This scenario protects Coder and himself, knowing that none of the people getting out would be Evildoers. Conclusion, Aeter, Pizza, TOW (who was innocent), and myself are innocent, and Coder and Doc are Evildoers.

I think that voting Hoid slayer is probably our safest option. If he's guilty, we go from there. If he's innocent, we vote Doc.

Askthepizzaguy

Hoid Slayer

Uhh. I have also reread this multiple times and come out confused. You start off with the assumption that that me and CD are evildoers. You then give two scenarios predicated on whether Hoid Slayer is an evildoer.

Your first scenario invalidates your original assumption that CD is evil and substitutes Aeternum as evil. 

You also assume that I was trying to save CD in both scenarios. But I put CD in the tie. You're saying I 'protected' CD by putting him on the table and taking him away?

Lastly, you conclude that even though you begin by assuming me and CD are evil, you're still going to vote for Hoid Slayer instead of either of us. If you are sure of your original assumption why didn't you cut out the middleman and just vote for me? 

11 hours ago, Askthepizzaguy said:

Yeah, absolutely.

But this game is a team game. 

This is part of it- every innocent person, in the game, has access to one piece of data I don't have, namely, absolute certainty their slot is innocent.

Which is why, everyone knows something I do not.

If you use your TMI on your slot, that you are town (assuming you are) your answers may be similar to mine, could be different. But one thing is for sure, you won't get your alignment wrong if you're town.

I might. I don't know that info.

But if you take the vote tally that I pulled from about 45 minutes prior to end of day 1, before the sudden vote shenaniganza on our PR, and also add in the AWOL person who is probably also town (just by random chance, they've done nothing to earn it)

Then post that tally twice.

In one of them, you assume zero guilty parties were voted twice in that tally, meaning, 2 votes on them.

In the other, you assume one or more guilty parties were voted twice.

Now, factor in who you think is actually town, too.

What are your answers?

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Doesn't take long for me to come up with "if guilty people were being voted, they likely did this".

I already did that, assuming 2 were being voted that way.

But that's wrong a lot of the time, and if you're innocent in particular, you know that much.

So not a lot of reason to make sudden wagon movements at end of day in that world.

So what about the world where the wagons are on villagers. Therefore, where are the guilty people.

Well, if you cross off your own name and also the folks being wagoned, you have a small pool of folks.

Also, if my name is also crossed off, even smaller.

So you factor in your town reads either way.

Now, you can also toss your town reads for no reason and look at worlds where you're just dead wrong all over the place, and thats not a fun world to look at, but it's prudent to do so.

Just... probably think it's more like universe A where guilties weren't really under pressure and universe B where 2 of them can have been.

I happen to know the 2 vote wagon on me was on an innocent, so I get to cross off that world personally, and if Penguin has his way, you all can.

 

This is also a lot, I don't think my analysis skills are as advanced  but I'll give my best shot. You posit two scenarios, one of which all of the final 3/4 vote tie members were village, and one where at least one of the members was evil. 

For reference, the parties involved in the tie are Pizzaguy, Penguin, CD, Aeternum, with Worldhopper being a sudden last minute switch. 

One hour before rollover, the vote seemed steady, with Pizzaguy (Hoid Slayer, Penguin) and Penguin (Booknewt, Ksauce) having 2 votes each. I didn't care for either of these options. Pizzaguy, if not village, has at least been poking everyone, challenging assumptions, and giving their reads, which I appreciate enough to want to keep around, and while I stated that Penguin's switch to Pizza was suspicious, it wasn't enough to condemn him. 

So I consciously made it a 3 way tie by voting for CD, who many have expressed suspicion of but not voted for. In hindsight, perhaps overly harsh on a new player, but I don't really take stock in sentiments like "I think this person is acting suspicious but I'm going to take pity on them for a cycle". As stated before,

11 hours ago, Doc12 said:

I think the thing with ties is that while it is very possible that the elims saw 3 innocents up for death and decided to do nothing, villagers who have no information are much more likely to go 'might as well see which one dies and go from there' while elims would be much more motivated to save one person from the vote. 

I decided I was completely fine with either Penguin or CD dying because both have acted suspiciously. Both would give me some information. 

That's when things got really interesting.

1) Hoid Slayer pinged me asking me to show mercy to CD.

2) Aeternum expressed suspicion of CD, but given that he was a new player decided not to tie break but add another player to the tie - Worldhopper. This, to me, was interesting because Worldhopper had not really garnered any suspicion other than Unknown Order voting on Worldhopper for their random votes. And if Aeternum had wanted to spare CD, he could just as easily have voted for Pizza or Penguin. Adding a fourth player to the tie just made it seem like Aeternum was voting for the sake of being seen voting, so I switched my vote to Aeternum. 

3) Hoid Slayer asks Aeternum to convince him of Worldhopper's guilt, asks me to make a vote that actually matters. Aeternum speculates that if Worldhopper is Evil, i would also be because of my vote on them. 

4) An exchange I personally found very funny

13 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Why [Worldhopper]?

Give a good enough reason in the next four minutes, and I might consider switching

13 hours ago, Aeternum said:

I vote elims, sometimes.

Did something I find e!indicative that I semi caught Iced on last game or a couple games ago, and I'm giving CD (who I find more likely to be an elim rn) some time because I'm nice.

13 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I don’t like that answer

13 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Pizza ThatOneWorldhopper

I want Iced to live

And that's the cycle. 

Going back to Pizza's first scenario, where all the candidates (Pizza, Penguin, CD, possibly Aeternum) are village, I suppose there's nothing more to read from this than villagers panicking. Aeternum didn't suspect one of Pizza, Penguin, or CD enough to vote on them directly, or supposed he might as well add Worldhopper to the mix and leave it up to chance to see who dies. Hoid Slayer just trusted his read of Penguin enough that he decided to abandon his suspicion of Pizza to at least get someone else killed. It's just interesting that the priority for Hoid Slayer wasn't as much getting someone he suspected killed as much as to save one specific player he trusted. It's also interesting that this trust isn't returned as they've been arguing this cycle. 

In the second scenario, where at least one of the candidates (Pizza, Penguin, CD) were evil, the sudden additional 2 votes on another candidate makes sense. Worldhopper already had one vote from before. Aeternum (who still might be village - him saying that if Worldhopper flips Elim then I would be Elim feels genuine to me) puts Worldhopper on the table, and even though Hoid Slayer explicitly says he doesn't like Aeternum's reasoning decides to vote for Worldhopper anyway purely to save Penguin. In this scenario, Hoid Slayer and Penguin are evil together. Alternatively, there's a scenario where Penguin is innocent and Hoid Slayer evil, but Hoid Slayer wanted to save someone else in the pool, knew it would be suspicious, and named a villager as the person he was trying to save in a gambit. Who knows? 

Greeblas, how's my reasoning? 

Edited August 8, 2025 by Doc12

[Askthepizzagal He/him]

11 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I think I know who two of them are.

Doc12, CoderDrag0n8

In the first cycle, he didn't post much, mostly doing vote counts, but he did cause a three-way tie, then, when it became a four-way tie, switched to put Coder out and Aeternum in. I will now do two scenarios.

1. Hoid Slayer is an Evildoer. He plans the switch to TOW to make sure that Aeternum doesn't die, a clever play that puts suspicion off Doc for 2 vote changes before the cycle switched. The conclusion to this one is that it's Doc, Aeter, and Hoid slayer. And Coder is safe.

2. Hoid Slayer is not an Evildoer. He vote switches to save me, and we read nothing more into it. Doc wouldn't have known he would've vote switched, and this clears Aeter, because we assume the Evildoers wouldn't leave it up to chance whether one of them got out cycle one. This scenario protects Coder and himself, knowing that none of the people getting out would be Evildoers. Conclusion, Aeter, Pizza, TOW (who was innocent), and myself are innocent, and Coder and Doc are Evildoers.

I think that voting Hoid slayer is probably our safest option. If he's guilty, we go from there. If he's innocent, we vote Doc.

Askthepizzaguy

Hoid Slayer

I have no idea how accurate this is, but at the same time, I applaud the methodology.

Spoiler

You're looking at worlds and what they mean. You're considering worlds where you're wrong, then considering worlds where your alternative solution can also be wrong. So you're solving two different games at the same time, and one of them is more likely to be close to being correct.

Without even looking at how likely the solution is, it's a bit like you're solving a sudoku puzzle and trying to see if one of the numbers fits in a certain spot, but being ready to erase and solve differently if it doesn't.

That's just a good heuristic in general, it works for solving all sorts of puzzles. Whereas trying to force the solution when it's already wrong, doesn't do a whole lot. You either go back and try again or you don't, really.

I'll be a little busy with my hands, and distracted by RL but I'm reading the bits I missed when I was out and about today.

I may be slow to respond, but I am reading up when I get a few seconds at a time.

40 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Greeblas, how's my reasoning? 

It looks solid to me, let me go over it again with my critical thinking brain when I am not distracted.

Same to Aeternum- I may not be spotting the logical gaps right now, but I can comb it over more carefully when I am more available.

If the perspective makes absolutely no sense then the exercise still had merit because if someone is guilty it can draw attention to the perspective slips, and if the person is town, you can talk through why it doesn't make sense with the person.

---

I am a firm believer that the truth from each person's POV is useful in breaking the puzzle open, if stuff doesn't make sense just be patient and ask questions and get to the truth. If stuff is just wrong, call it out gently until something gives.

Why this tends to work is, no matter how strange or muddled someone's perspective is when they're innocent, there is a truth somewhere buried down at the bottom of it, making the foundation of their argument, even if the conclusion is wrong.

But if someone is guilty at some point they have to give a wrong solve, for false reasons, using bad logic, and sometimes it can take days or several rounds of questioning to get to the truth. But as long as the folks involved who are innocent cooperate with the thinking and solving process, no matter how critical or messy it can get, the truth they know for a fact is true can shine, and assist others with the solve.

And even if that process fails and we don't catch it in time, when someone dies, the truth of their position becomes known anyway.

The objective I have is to try to get to that truth before someone dies and can't come back.

Because it's better to guess people are town correctly while they're still alive, because that helps you catch guilty people earlier, for better reasons.

@Aeternum @Doc12 added some thoughts, edited in.

 

Edited August 8, 2025 by Askthepizzaguy