Long Game 106: On the Shores of The Black Lake

[StrikerEZ he/him]

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Kéamen had claimed to have been Soothed on the second night, a claim that had been backed up by Fox, who'd turned out to be a village Soother. In addition, they were still able to confer privately, which suggested a Tineye was still in operation. If Kéamen wasn't a Tineye, then he still hadn't shot Teal, and there was a second Tineye in Blackkeep who had said nothing at all. (Keldorn supposed Kéamen could've been Smoked that night, which would allow a steel shot to go through, but wasn't sure if Kéamen would then know to claim he'd been Soothed. He acknowledged he couldn't really explain the lack of a message last night, however.) 

Var felt supremely embarrassed. “I must admit,” he said, “that I did not remember Kéamen’s claim of being soothed or Fox’s confirmation of that claim. That…does ruin my idea, doesn’t it? Gah, I’m essentially back to square one. It does not help that I have essentially zero reads on anyone besides you and Madiane.”

[Kasimir he/him]

22 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Var felt supremely embarrassed. “I must admit,” he said, “that I did not remember Kéamen’s claim of being soothed or Fox’s confirmation of that claim. That…does ruin my idea, doesn’t it? Gah, I’m essentially back to square one. It does not help that I have essentially zero reads on anyone besides you and Madiane.”

This bothered Keldorn, though.

Did Spiked Var just take it back like this? He felt like Var should've found an alternate suspicion to advance here as Spiked. Admitting he was clueless while they stood on the knife's edge of loss somehow felt like something Keldorn could relate to, and didn't feel like it came from agenda. But then what of the retaliatory Fox push, Var's shoehorned choices of suspects, and Var's repeated attempts to fish for a Lurcher?

At the same time, Keldorn'd also felt Kéamen was suspicious for other reasons, so that put him in an awkward position as he was half-tempted to join Var in accusing Kéamen regardless.

No. He needed a nap, to relook this with a clearer mind.

He figured he'd switch to accusing Antari for the moment. Hadn't liked Antari's last minute claim of Fox's innocence. Either it was a Seeker scan claim, which Keldorn had many questions about, or it felt like Antari swooping in to claim easy village credit by positioning himself as opposing Fox's flip. No one had been particularly certain of Fox's innocence—Keldorn for instance had found himself torn and swerving between Var and Fox in terms of who he thought was suspicious, so where did Antari's clarity come from, when he'd repeatedly and publicly insisted he was very lost on the events in the market square? It felt like a slight slip to Keldorn.

Edited to add:

Keldorn went over to Var and drew in a deep breath. Might as well say it for the record.

"If you're Spiked, congratulations to you because I'm just thoroughly confused by this point to be honest. I hate your voting record, the Lurcher fishing, and you look suspicious as all hell especially off yesterday, but what you last said also made me want to think you're Village again and I hate it."

Listing everything made it seem like he really should be voting Var again. But, damnit, he liked that half-takeback. He did.

Edited June 19, 2025 by Kasimir

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

"Antari has claimed to not be an allomancer in our private conversations. i am also not an allomancer, as previously stated. There seem to be very few allomancers in this vllage."

[KaladinsSenseOfHumourSpren He/Him]

2 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

"Antari has claimed to not be an allomancer in our private conversations. i am also not an allomancer, as previously stated. There seem to be very few allomancers in this vllage."

If this was the case, then Mil wondered how Antari knew.

 

But he wasn't Mil's biggest suspect. Kéamen was one that Mil felt was trying to avoid voting to keep attention away from him. Mil felt that this was what Ruin would tell one of his Spiked to do.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

When Kéamen finally walked back into the square, it was far past noon. He still felt a string of guilt from not responding earlier, yet he remained shaken from his conversation with Hoid. It was a little late, he knew, but the square had been fairly inactive. And he had a promise to keep.

First, Kéamen analyzed the votes:

C1:

Lijal (4): Var, Madiane, Fox, Mil
Astrid (3): Keldorn, Kéamen, Jox
Jox (1): Copper Stopper
Fox (1): Lijal
Antari (1): John Derrick

No vote: Josha, Lipitor, Teal, Astrid, Antari

C2:

John Derrick/AraRaash (5): Jox, Josha, Keldorn, Fox, Var
Var (2): Mil, Teal, Kéamen

No vote: John Derrick, Astrid, Antari, Madiane, Lipitor

C3:

Fox (3): Madiane, Var, Jox
Mil (2): Keldorn, Fox
Jox (1): Mil
Var (1): Antari

No vote: Josha, Kéamen, Antari

...

There. That done, Kéamen analyzed. It was difficult (for him, at least) to determine much from these votes, particularly as no Spiked had yet been revealed. However, he could compare certain actions.

There was one name Kéamen had consistently found suspicious: Var. At first, Kéamen's attention had been drawn by Var's bloodlust, supported by odd accusations. Additionally, Keldorn had previously raised a matter Kéamen found interesting. So far, Keldorn and Var had dominated the discussion around the search for the Spiked. From the perspective of the Spiked, it made no sense to go after inactive players like Lipitor when there were far more experienced voices dominating the discussion. Spiked always wanted to be in control of the narrative. Kéamen saw too possibilities for why the Spiked might allow the current situation:

1. The voices dominating the discussion were going down the entire wrong path, and it benefitted the Spike for them to continue pushing that narrative. That possibility worried Kéamen, but wouldn't hold enough wait for him to permit them to continue living if he was the Spiked.

2. At least one of the two was a Spiked, and so was using the other one to hide. Kéamen thought this possibility the most likely. Personally, Keldorn had earned his trust after putting in mass amounts of effort, particularly near the start, that he didn't have to. And so Var was the top suspect for the Spiked.

There was also the matter of Jox. As far as Kéamen could remember off the top of his head, the main thing he, at least, had suspected Jox for were his early actions reaching out to as many people as possible and establishing a place in their thoughts - a ploy Kéamen himself had fallen into with a relative of Lipitor's. In the second day, Fox had raised suspicions of Jox acting oddly related to his relatives. In his notes last night, Keldorn had mentioned Jox and Var stumbling over each other in the evening of the second day, and Kéamen had gone back and reviewed that time, and didn't really understand what Keldorn had meant.

What he did find interesting was Jox joining a train on Var, the train seeming to almost succeed, and then Jox quickly switching to a train on Derrick as soon as he was specifically pressured from Var. That switch from a leading train on Var onto Derrick as a whole caught Kéamen's attention. Those who had changed their votes were Var, Keldorn, and Jox under Var's influence.

In a world where Var was Spiked, Kéamen saw it entirely possible that Jox was Spiked with him. Another reason for the Spiked to keep Jox around, when perhaps Keldorn could have sufficed as cover for Var.

Continuing in a world where Var was Spiked, Kéamen analyzed the situations of the others.

Mil

Keldorn was suspicious of Mil because he seemed more concerned with his appearance than with actually seeking the culprits. Kéamen could relate a little to this; he did, every now and then, worry that anything he said could make him look Spiked. It was an internal voice that was impossible to silence. But at the same time, Kéamen found this note interesting.

Votes wise, Mil and Var had voted together for Lijal on the first day. On the second, Mil had interestingly joined the train on Var, and stayed on it, despite the logic used for his vote beind disproved. Looking back at those events, it seemed to Kéamen that Mil had honestly believed in his accusation against Var, but perhaps it was just a method for clearing himself.

On day three, Mil voted Jox. Nothing would be suspicious there, if not for Mil saying - and Kéamen quoted - "I vote for Jox, if only to prove that it isn't me." What? @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren, some explanation here would be nice. If the Spiked were (Var, Jox, Mil), then this could be a weird form of justification for Mil weakly distancing himself from Jox.

For now, Kéamen found Mil suspicious, but not extremely.

Josha

Kéamen didn't know what to think about Josha. Keldorn had said Josha had insisted early in the game on Jox engagement, but that seemed light to Kéamen, and Josha hadn't been super active.

Votes wise, Josha had oddly refrained from votes on the first and third days. On the second day, he accused Derrick in a sensible way. Nothing really suspicious other than potential inactivity.

Antari

Antari was... not doing much. The only notable thing he had done, per Keldorn's notes, was claim that Fox was a villager and vanish. Kéamen agreed there were two main explanations for this:

1. Antari had seeked Fox, but in that case, why was he only saying something now?

2. Antari wanted to claim credit for getting Fox's alignment right?

This was just weird. @ThatOneWorldhopper, explanation please.

Votes wise, Antari had literally done nothing. Which was a little suspicious.

Madiane

Kéamen didn't know what to think about Madiane. Keldorn had noted that Madiane had been the decisive vote on the Fox train in the third day, over the Mil train. Kéamen still felt guilty about not acting up there. Madiane had claimed her vote was to seek information, but it was unclear what information she was looking for, and that seemed weak justification for a vote on what many had believed a decisive moment. @Biplet, care to explain?

Madiane had joined Var and Mil in voting Lijal the first day, and refrained from voting the third.

...

Overall, Kéamen's main suspicions for the Spiked were:

1. Var, Jox, and maybe Mil, Josha or Antari?

2. Var, Mil, and Madiane

Kéamen didn't think Mil and Antari would be Spiked together, as then Antari's surge to save Fox would make no sense

To address some things in his analysis:

Yes, Kéamen was relying heavily on Keldorn's info. Yes, Kéamen was putting a lot on the assumption that Keldorn was village. Keldorn was just doing far too much for Kéamen to see him differently, and he was the only one who had responded when Kéamen asked for a summary the previous night.

Likewise, Kéamen was relying on Var being Spiked. Var was his heaviest e!read, and the only one Kéamen felt confident executing today.

The votes, as they stood, where:

Var (2): Antari, Kéamen

Kéamen (1): Var

Josha (1): Jox

Madiane (1): Josha

Antari (1): Keldorn

The spread out votes worried Kéamen. It left the village susceptible to Spiked teaming. They had to unify, urgently.

@A Jo in the Bush@TwinStorm@Kasimir@StrikerEZ

...

One last thing.

Aral had repeatedly said that a failure of the village to take steps towards solving issues such as the water poisoning and infrastructure worried him. Was Aral trying to imply the villagers could actively do something about that? @Araris Valerian

[TwinStorm He/Him]

1 hour ago, Hoid Slayer said:

When Kéamen finally walked back into the square, it was far past noon. He still felt a string of guilt from not responding earlier, yet he remained shaken from his conversation with Hoid. It was a little late, he knew, but the square had been fairly inactive. And he had a promise to keep.

First, Kéamen analyzed the votes:

C1:

Lijal (4): Var, Madiane, Fox, Mil
Astrid (3): Keldorn, Kéamen, Jox
Jox (1): Copper Stopper
Fox (1): Lijal
Antari (1): John Derrick

No vote: Josha, Lipitor, Teal, Astrid, Antari

C2:

John Derrick/AraRaash (5): Jox, Josha, Keldorn, Fox, Var
Var (2): Mil, Teal, Kéamen

No vote: John Derrick, Astrid, Antari, Madiane, Lipitor

C3:

Fox (3): Madiane, Var, Jox
Mil (2): Keldorn, Fox
Jox (1): Mil
Var (1): Antari

No vote: Josha, Kéamen, Antari

...

There. That done, Kéamen analyzed. It was difficult (for him, at least) to determine much from these votes, particularly as no Spiked had yet been revealed. However, he could compare certain actions.

There was one name Kéamen had consistently found suspicious: Var. At first, Kéamen's attention had been drawn by Var's bloodlust, supported by odd accusations. Additionally, Keldorn had previously raised a matter Kéamen found interesting. So far, Keldorn and Var had dominated the discussion around the search for the Spiked. From the perspective of the Spiked, it made no sense to go after inactive players like Lipitor when there were far more experienced voices dominating the discussion. Spiked always wanted to be in control of the narrative. Kéamen saw too possibilities for why the Spiked might allow the current situation:

1. The voices dominating the discussion were going down the entire wrong path, and it benefitted the Spike for them to continue pushing that narrative. That possibility worried Kéamen, but wouldn't hold enough wait for him to permit them to continue living if he was the Spiked.

2. At least one of the two was a Spiked, and so was using the other one to hide. Kéamen thought this possibility the most likely. Personally, Keldorn had earned his trust after putting in mass amounts of effort, particularly near the start, that he didn't have to. And so Var was the top suspect for the Spiked.

There was also the matter of Jox. As far as Kéamen could remember off the top of his head, the main thing he, at least, had suspected Jox for were his early actions reaching out to as many people as possible and establishing a place in their thoughts - a ploy Kéamen himself had fallen into with a relative of Lipitor's. In the second day, Fox had raised suspicions of Jox acting oddly related to his relatives. In his notes last night, Keldorn had mentioned Jox and Var stumbling over each other in the evening of the second day, and Kéamen had gone back and reviewed that time, and didn't really understand what Keldorn had meant.

What he did find interesting was Jox joining a train on Var, the train seeming to almost succeed, and then Jox quickly switching to a train on Derrick as soon as he was specifically pressured from Var. That switch from a leading train on Var onto Derrick as a whole caught Kéamen's attention. Those who had changed their votes were Var, Keldorn, and Jox under Var's influence.

In a world where Var was Spiked, Kéamen saw it entirely possible that Jox was Spiked with him. Another reason for the Spiked to keep Jox around, when perhaps Keldorn could have sufficed as cover for Var.

Continuing in a world where Var was Spiked, Kéamen analyzed the situations of the others.

Mil

Keldorn was suspicious of Mil because he seemed more concerned with his appearance than with actually seeking the culprits. Kéamen could relate a little to this; he did, every now and then, worry that anything he said could make him look Spiked. It was an internal voice that was impossible to silence. But at the same time, Kéamen found this note interesting.

Votes wise, Mil and Var had voted together for Lijal on the first day. On the second, Mil had interestingly joined the train on Var, and stayed on it, despite the logic used for his vote beind disproved. Looking back at those events, it seemed to Kéamen that Mil had honestly believed in his accusation against Var, but perhaps it was just a method for clearing himself.

On day three, Mil voted Jox. Nothing would be suspicious there, if not for Mil saying - and Kéamen quoted - "I vote for Jox, if only to prove that it isn't me." What? @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren, some explanation here would be nice. If the Spiked were (Var, Jox, Mil), then this could be a weird form of justification for Mil weakly distancing himself from Jox.

For now, Kéamen found Mil suspicious, but not extremely.

Josha

Kéamen didn't know what to think about Josha. Keldorn had said Josha had insisted early in the game on Jox engagement, but that seemed light to Kéamen, and Josha hadn't been super active.

Votes wise, Josha had oddly refrained from votes on the first and third days. On the second day, he accused Derrick in a sensible way. Nothing really suspicious other than potential inactivity.

Antari

Antari was... not doing much. The only notable thing he had done, per Keldorn's notes, was claim that Fox was a villager and vanish. Kéamen agreed there were two main explanations for this:

1. Antari had seeked Fox, but in that case, why was he only saying something now?

2. Antari wanted to claim credit for getting Fox's alignment right?

This was just weird. @ThatOneWorldhopper, explanation please.

Votes wise, Antari had literally done nothing. Which was a little suspicious.

Madiane

Kéamen didn't know what to think about Madiane. Keldorn had noted that Madiane had been the decisive vote on the Fox train in the third day, over the Mil train. Kéamen still felt guilty about not acting up there. Madiane had claimed her vote was to seek information, but it was unclear what information she was looking for, and that seemed weak justification for a vote on what many had believed a decisive moment. @Biplet, care to explain?

Madiane had joined Var and Mil in voting Lijal the first day, and refrained from voting the third.

...

Overall, Kéamen's main suspicions for the Spiked were:

1. Var, Jox, and maybe Mil, Josha or Antari?

2. Var, Mil, and Madiane

Kéamen didn't think Mil and Antari would be Spiked together, as then Antari's surge to save Fox would make no sense

To address some things in his analysis:

Yes, Kéamen was relying heavily on Keldorn's info. Yes, Kéamen was putting a lot on the assumption that Keldorn was village. Keldorn was just doing far too much for Kéamen to see him differently, and he was the only one who had responded when Kéamen asked for a summary the previous night.

Likewise, Kéamen was relying on Var being Spiked. Var was his heaviest e!read, and the only one Kéamen felt confident executing today.

The votes, as they stood, where:

Var (2): Antari, Kéamen

Kéamen (1): Var

Josha (1): Jox

Madiane (1): Josha

Antari (1): Keldorn

The spread out votes worried Kéamen. It left the village susceptible to Spiked teaming. They had to unify, urgently.

@A Jo in the Bush@TwinStorm@Kasimir@StrikerEZ

...

One last thing.

Aral had repeatedly said that a failure of the village to take steps towards solving issues such as the water poisoning and infrastructure worried him. Was Aral trying to imply the villagers could actively do something about that? @Araris Valerian

That was a foolish way to throw around votes, Josha reflected, searching for who was dominating the conversation. Well it's beneficial for the Spiked to be in control, there was no reason for them to dominate any more than Villagers, as he had learned in previous times. He didn't consider that a substantial reason, and one of the two being a Spiked was just as strange, unless he was missing something

"Keamen," Josha asked quietly. "You feel guilty for not acting up yesterday? Why exactly?"

[Biplet she/her]

2 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

@Biplet, care to explain?

"The honest truth is that I just cannot figure this nonsense out, and have no been able to devote much time to solving it. I fell asleep and did not vote on day two, and didn't want that to happen again."

Madiane took a breath. They needed information, and information she would give.

"I am a soother. Var claimed soother to me. This gives us three soothers, one of whom we know is a villager. I know I am village. The only possible explanation I can give is that Var must be spiked, because why would we have three soothers in this village? It is the best I can give at this point."

@StrikerEZ

[TwinStorm He/Him]

8 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Jox walked slowly through the town, staring and stumbling. He had no idea what was going on. He didn't have the faintest sense of who to trust. He wanted to trust in Var and Keldorn, but with Fox gone, he had no idea what to think.

Var, Keldorn, and Jox really shouldn't have survived this long. Jox didn't know if that meant the spiked were hiding amongst the less active, or if it meant they were hiding amongst the three of them.

He was tempted to vote for Keldorn, because the man didn't have any votes on him yet. He was tempted to vote for Mil or Josha, on the presumption that his previous analysis hadn't been completely wrong. He was tempted to vote on Antari for not explaining about Fox. He wasn't tempted to vote on var, since he already had the leading votes, and there wasn't a counter train materializing to defend him.

In the end, he decided to vote on Josha while he did some other investigations in private.

 

Josha frowned. "Can you explain exactly why you voted for me? For clarity's sake?"

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

50 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

That was a foolish way to throw around votes, Josha reflected, searching for who was dominating the conversation. Well it's beneficial for the Spiked to be in control, there was no reason for them to dominate any more than Villagers, as he had learned in previous times. He didn't consider that a substantial reason, and one of the two being a Spiked was just as strange, unless he was missing something

"Keamen," Josha asked quietly. "You feel guilty for not acting up yesterday? Why exactly?"

Kéamen turned to him, glad someone else had showed up.

”Oh, it’s just that I considered leaving my vote for Var in case someone with more information than me decided to flip it, but figured there was nothing I could do. I also feel as if I should’ve been more active, rather than simply watching.”

4 minutes ago, Biplet said:

"The honest truth is that I just cannot figure this nonsense out, and have no been able to devote much time to solving it. I fell asleep and did not vote on day two, and didn't want that to happen again."

Madiane took a breath. They needed information, and information she would give.

"I am a soother. Var claimed soother to me. This gives us three soothers, one of whom we know is a villager. I know I am village. The only possible explanation I can give is that Var must be spiked, because why would we have three soothers in this village? It is the best I can give at this point."

@StrikerEZ

Kéamen turned to her.

”What do you mean Var claimed Soother? Is there anyone you have Soothed that can testify to your ability? Three Soothers seems… odd. As for Var… care to explain?”

Kéamen worried about this position of hers. It didn’t seem to make a lot of sense to him, and seemed a little like she was trying to piggyback on an easy vote. It unsettled him.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Kéamen turned to him, glad someone else had showed up.

”Oh, it’s just that I considered leaving my vote for Var in case someone with more information than me decided to flip it, but figured there was nothing I could do. I also feel as if I should’ve been more active, rather than simply watching.”

Kéamen turned to her.

”What do you mean Var claimed Soother? Is there anyone you have Soothed that can testify to your ability? Three Soothers seems… odd. As for Var… care to explain?”

Kéamen worried about this position of hers. It didn’t seem to make a lot of sense to him, and seemed a little like she was trying to piggyback on an easy vote. It unsettled him.

Josha nodded, mostly satisfied.

10 minutes ago, Biplet said:

"The honest truth is that I just cannot figure this nonsense out, and have no been able to devote much time to solving it. I fell asleep and did not vote on day two, and didn't want that to happen again."

Madiane took a breath. They needed information, and information she would give.

"I am a soother. Var claimed soother to me. This gives us three soothers, one of whom we know is a villager. I know I am village. The only possible explanation I can give is that Var must be spiked, because why would we have three soothers in this village? It is the best I can give at this point."

@StrikerEZ

"Three soothers?" he frowned. "That could mean a Mistborn, perhaps, which makes two soothers unlikely, but not implausible."

[Biplet she/her]

1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

”What do you mean Var claimed Soother? Is there anyone you have Soothed that can testify to your ability? Three Soothers seems… odd. As for Var… care to explain?”

I AM STUPID I AM STUPID I AM STUPID I MIXED UP SOOTHER AND SMOKER

"Var claimed smoker to me. I am a smoker. I am so sorry."

[TwinStorm He/Him]

Just now, Biplet said:

I AM STUPID I AM STUPID I AM STUPID I MIXED UP SOOTHER AND SMOKER

"Var claimed smoker to me. I am a smoker. I am so sorry."

Josha frowned. "Oh." that was odd. He frowned. It made more sense though, what with Copper Stopper (rest in peace, my friend) being a Smoker. This didn't disprove his Mistborn theory, but he needed to know more. 

"Var? Is there truth in what she claims? If you are village, we need to know."

@StrikerEZ

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Biplet said:

I AM STUPID I AM STUPID I AM STUPID I MIXED UP SOOTHER AND SMOKER

"Var claimed smoker to me. I am a smoker. I am so sorry."

"I can back this up," Keldorn said, calmly. "Var claimed Smoker to me previously, and I claimed my role to him as well. I'm a regular. I was willing to extend him the benefit of the doubt when I read him more easily as a Villager, but started to harbour doubts after last night, and Var pressing me yet again if I knew the identity of the Lurcher. I'm unsure about how to read this now because I do want to think Var's latest comments emerge from a Villager."

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

Kéamen stood awkwardly, not sure how to feel about the fact that various private conversations had taken place without his knowing. Perhaps that was the price to pay for not being there.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Aral had repeatedly said that a failure of the village to take steps towards solving issues such as the water poisoning and infrastructure worried him. Was Aral trying to imply the villagers could actively do something about that? @Araris Valerian

Yes. Just because you have to play the game in RP doesn’t mean that all your RP has to be relevant to the game’s mechanics. I’ve been adding in that flavor stuff just to give folks an option to flesh out their characters and the setting a bit if they wanted to.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

"Var attempting to find a lurcher does feel suspicious given how few kills have been targeting the more vocal villagers. Possibly that could point towards Spiked!Var wanting to not waste any kills, and so only targeting those who are unlikely to be defended." Jox frowned at the preponderance of citizens casting votes for Var. No one had seriously attempted to defend him or make headway on another train. "I don't know that Var is a likely candidate though. This doesn't feel like an execution that is contested, as I imagine it would be were we about to execute a Villager."

Jox kinda did want to execute Var anyway, just in case, because he really didn't want to have saved a spiked by switching to Derrick at the last minute in a previous cycle, but that seemed a poor reason to kill a man and potentially lose the town.

20 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

Josha frowned. "Can you explain exactly why you voted for me? For clarity's sake?"

"Well Josha, I voted for you for two reasons." Jox held up two fingers. "No one else had voted on you yet, and I wanted a wide spread of votes to see who would get doubled up on besides Var. No one has." He put down one finger. "My prior analysis said that you, Mil, and Fox were the most likely to be spiked, with Antari and Lipitor as follow-ups. I was wrong about Lipitor and Fox, but you three are still suspects because I haven't found a reason to trust you. Of course, that logic is seriously flawed, since Fox was the one I was most certain of, and basing my analysis on. But, well," Jox spread his hands in a gesture of helplessness, "I have no idea who is spiked, and at this point I'm desperate."

"Now that I think about it Josha, what are you? You and Mil are the only folks who haven't explained their allomantic status."

1. Jox - claimed Vanilla
2. Copper Stopper - Village Smoker
3. Mil Veriel - no claims
4. Josha - no claims
5. Lijal - Village Vanilla
6. Lipitor -  Village Vanilla
7. Teal Village Coinshot
8. Astrid Lefflame - Village Vanilla
9. Kéamen Wither - claimed Tineye - No counterclaims, probably true.
10. John Derrick/AraRaash -  Village Vanilla
11. Keldorn - claimed Vanilla
12. Fox - silent Wanderer Village Soother
13. Antari Erlington - claimed Vanilla
14. Var - Claimed Smoker by Madiane
15. Madiane - Claimed Smoker

"This is not a very Allomantic village. We've heard no evidence of Rioters, Lurchers, Pewterarms, or Seekers, unless you buy the theory that Teal was the result of a Seeker. I'm personally still confused as to that particular death, but it seems to point towards a Mistborn being involved, though their alignment could be anything. Hey Mil, @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren, are you an allomancer?"

[Kasimir he/him]

3 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

In his notes last night, Keldorn had mentioned Jox and Var stumbling over each other in the evening of the second day, and Kéamen had gone back and reviewed that time, and didn't really understand what Keldorn had meant.

"Look," Keldorn said, scrawling the letters into the dirt on the side of the street.

"Our first event: Jox votes Derrick."

"Exactly a minute later, Var complains about a tie and asks Jox if Jox is willing to vote for Derrick or to remove his vote. Jox then points out he has already voted for Derrick."

"Then, Var acknowledges the error."

While outlining it, Keldorn began to wonder if he'd been too fast to assume this interaction meant Jox and Var could not be teamed. He said, "Var seems to be unaware of Jox's switch here. To me, it seemed like an oddly specific detail for Var and Jox to have orchestrated. Though I suppose as with Madiane and Var on the first day, you could argue they'd privately prepared that interaction beforehand as Spiked."

Edited to add:

17 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

"I don't know that Var is a likely candidate though. This doesn't feel like an execution that is contested, as I imagine it would be were we about to execute a Villager."

As it stood, by Keldorn's reckoning, there were two votes on Kéamen and three on Var. He wondered how it was that Jox could continue to insist that Var was not being contested as there was a competing accusation right there.

Edited June 20, 2025 by Kasimir
removed extra doublespace

[TwinStorm He/Him]

34 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

"Var attempting to find a lurcher does feel suspicious given how few kills have been targeting the more vocal villagers. Possibly that could point towards Spiked!Var wanting to not waste any kills, and so only targeting those who are unlikely to be defended." Jox frowned at the preponderance of citizens casting votes for Var. No one had seriously attempted to defend him or make headway on another train. "I don't know that Var is a likely candidate though. This doesn't feel like an execution that is contested, as I imagine it would be were we about to execute a Villager."

Jox kinda did want to execute Var anyway, just in case, because he really didn't want to have saved a spiked by switching to Derrick at the last minute in a previous cycle, but that seemed a poor reason to kill a man and potentially lose the town.

"Well Josha, I voted for you for two reasons." Jox held up two fingers. "No one else had voted on you yet, and I wanted a wide spread of votes to see who would get doubled up on besides Var. No one has." He put down one finger. "My prior analysis said that you, Mil, and Fox were the most likely to be spiked, with Antari and Lipitor as follow-ups. I was wrong about Lipitor and Fox, but you three are still suspects because I haven't found a reason to trust you. Of course, that logic is seriously flawed, since Fox was the one I was most certain of, and basing my analysis on. But, well," Jox spread his hands in a gesture of helplessness, "I have no idea who is spiked, and at this point I'm desperate."

"Now that I think about it Josha, what are you? You and Mil are the only folks who haven't explained their allomantic status."

1. Jox - claimed Vanilla
2. Copper Stopper - Village Smoker
3. Mil Veriel - no claims
4. Josha - no claims
5. Lijal - Village Vanilla
6. Lipitor -  Village Vanilla
7. Teal Village Coinshot
8. Astrid Lefflame - Village Vanilla
9. Kéamen Wither - claimed Tineye - No counterclaims, probably true.
10. John Derrick/AraRaash -  Village Vanilla
11. Keldorn - claimed Vanilla
12. Fox - silent Wanderer Village Soother
13. Antari Erlington - claimed Vanilla
14. Var - Claimed Smoker by Madiane
15. Madiane - Claimed Smoker

"This is not a very Allomantic village. We've heard no evidence of Rioters, Lurchers, Pewterarms, or Seekers, unless you buy the theory that Teal was the result of a Seeker. I'm personally still confused as to that particular death, but it seems to point towards a Mistborn being involved, though their alignment could be anything. Hey Mil, @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren, are you an allomancer?"

"No allomantic powers for me." Josha replied. "And as for your claims, your only reasoning was that Fox, a Villager, did not mention me, and I was interested in gossip, neither of which concrete evidence, and both seem flimsy at best."

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

49 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

As it stood, by Keldorn's reckoning, there were two votes on Kéamen and three on Var. He wondered how it was that Jox could continue to insist that Var was not being contested as there was a competing accusation right there.

Jox hesitated, then tried to make an actual vote count instead of just going off of very brief recollections.

Var (3): Keldorn 1, Antari 4, Kéamen 9, Madiane 10
Mil (1): Var 2
Madiane (1): Josha 3
Josha (1): Jox 5
Kéamen (2): Var 6, Mil 8
Antari (1): Keldorn 7

He was pleasantly surprised to see that not only was Keldorn correct, but everyone alive had voted.

"Okay, change of plans, I've already said that Mil was one of my suspects, so that fact that Var and Mil voted together does actually make me a lot more suspicious of Var. However, when Var voted, there were two votes on him, and he voted on someone that had zero votes on him. Mil voted on Kéamen 4 hours later. It doesn't feel like the vote that Var would make if he were spiked, especially since he's already recanted that the reasoning for the vote. At the time of his vote, he could have voted on Mil, Madiane, and Josha. If he and another spiked wanted to ensure he would survive, it feels weird. If anything, I'm actually now more interested in voting for Kéamen."

Jox paused, and considered the absolute nonsensicalness of what he'd just said. He should really start planning out his words instead of just talking aloud. Had he just completely changed his suspicions mid rant? Going from being suspicious of Var and Mil for voting on Kéamen, to going to being suspicious of Kéamen? The votes did kind of seem like Kéamen and Biplet were voting on Var to save Kéamen.

He thought about it, then shrugged. "Madiane for now. That does feel weird and suspicious. I want to think more, so this might change."

Var (3): Keldorn 1, Antari 4, Kéamen 9, Madiane 10
Mil (1): Var 2
Madiane (2): Josha 3, Jox 11
Josha (0): Jox 5
Kéamen (2): Var 6, Mil 8
Antari (1): Keldorn 7
Jox (0):
Keldorn (0):

15 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

"No allomantic powers for me." Josha replied. "And as for your claims, your only reasoning was that Fox, a Villager, did not mention me, and I was interested in gossip, neither of which concrete evidence, and both seem flimsy at best."

Jox nodded. "I did say that analysis was seriously flawed, and partially based in the idea that you hadn't done anything that made me think you were a Villager, which is still the case. I'm still happy to vote to execute you if a sufficient defense of Madiane and Kéamen materializes."

Edited June 20, 2025 by A Jo in the Bush

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

If he and another spiked wanted to ensure he would survive, it feels weird.

"The one assumption I think you're making in your analysis," Keldorn stated, "Is that you're assuming the Spiked would intervene as quickly as possible. And I think that's not a warranted one." According to his informants, it'd not been the case for a while. (Infamously, one of Aral's predecessors had told one of his informants that. It'd been a rough time in Tyrian Falls.) Votes had a tendency to disintegrate over time as accusers lost interest, or simply were otherwise distracted. 

With the way the last two Days had become a last minute frenzy of accusations shifting around, Keldorn found it curious that Jox seemed to think that the Spiked would immediately intervene, especially since it was grounding a push on Madiane to defend Var. (If Madiane and Var were both claimed Smokers, and this was true, then Keldorn felt as though it was less likely they were both Spiked together. Unless God had a cruel sense of humour, he supposed. Of course, there was the world in which one of the two of them was lying about their Allomantic powers.)

"Jox, what's your current read then of Antari?"

[TwinStorm He/Him]

18 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Jox hesitated, then tried to make an actual vote count instead of just going off of very brief recollections.

Var (3): Keldorn 1, Antari 4, Kéamen 9, Madiane 10
Mil (1): Var 2
Madiane (1): Josha 3
Josha (1): Jox 5
Kéamen (2): Var 6, Mil 8
Antari (1): Keldorn 7

He was pleasantly surprised to see that not only was Keldorn correct, but everyone alive had voted.

"Okay, change of plans, I've already said that Mil was one of my suspects, so that fact that Var and Mil voted together does actually make me a lot more suspicious of Var. However, when Var voted, there were two votes on him, and he voted on someone that had zero votes on him. Mil voted on Kéamen 4 hours later. It doesn't feel like the vote that Var would make if he were spiked, especially since he's already recanted that the reasoning for the vote. At the time of his vote, he could have voted on Mil, Madiane, and Josha. If he and another spiked wanted to ensure he would survive, it feels weird. If anything, I'm actually now more interested in voting for Kéamen."

Jox paused, and considered the absolute nonsensicalness of what he'd just said. He should really start planning out his words instead of just talking aloud. Had he just completely changed his suspicions mid rant? Going from being suspicious of Var and Mil for voting on Kéamen, to going to being suspicious of Kéamen? The votes did kind of seem like Kéamen and Biplet were voting on Var to save Kéamen.

He thought about it, then shrugged. "Madiane for now. That does feel weird and suspicious. I want to think more, so this might change."

Var (3): Keldorn 1, Antari 4, Kéamen 9, Madiane 10
Mil (1): Var 2
Madiane (2): Josha 3, Jox 11
Josha (0): Jox 5
Kéamen (2): Var 6, Mil 8
Antari (1): Keldorn 7
Jox (0):
Keldorn (0):

Jox nodded. "I did say that analysis was seriously flawed, and partially based in the idea that you hadn't done anything that made me think you were a Villager, which is still the case. I'm still happy to vote to execute you if a sufficient defense of Madiane and Kéamen materializes."

Josha shrugged. "Alright, then. I don't believe Kéamen to be Spiked, at least not yet, but I merely wanted to point out the apparent flaw in his considerations. As I'm sure you know, too many good men have been executed for "controlling the conversation."

"As for Madiane, she's done nothing to prove she's a villager, staying in the background conveniently (something I admit to also doing, as time is pressing to me), but preferring to go about her day, discussing her duties and not focusing on the crisis at hand. All her votes have seemed relatively flimsy, and most piggybacking on another train. She seems to like to blend in, hide, and that makes me distrust her." 

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

Kéamen sighed, then once again strolled out into the large plaza. Scenes from the last week flashed in his head. Arriving in Blackkeep, fresh and naive, eager to complete the job sent for him. Not so long ago. Stepping into the square, similarly to now, to make his address regarding peacefulness. Inaggression that had since been thrown out the window. Scrawling on these floors at night, hoping his voice would be heard. A voice that seemed to have fallen on deaf ears. Now, he claimed the space for what could be the final time. Wishing he had done more.

Kéamen took the stage, spread his arms wide, and spoke.

“I would call some of you friends.” He nodded to Keldorn. “Others…” he looked to Var. “I would watch with doughtful eyes, yet not quite call enemies. Yet there are most certainly enemies among us.

”They nearly outnumber us. And let me tell you this; they will strike. As late as they can afford, they will likely launch a group vote, and doom is all. As members of the village, we must choose a shared target. We must unite.” Kéamen felt something of a grin creeping on his face.

”I find it somewhat funny that I first stood before you to advocate against the very thing I now defend, against the very man I now condemn. But the times have changed.

”I sincerely believe Var is our enemy. Josha,” he nodded to the man, “raised a valid point about good men being executed for controlling the conversation. And yet, the question I raise is not whether we should attack these men. It is why the Spiked haven’t already.

”Why haven’t they attacked our most vocal leads, when without them, we might fall apart?” Kéamen’s heart pounded in his chest. “One of Keldorn and Var is an enemy. Perhaps I am foolish, but I trust the former. So Var must die.” He let the silence reign for a moment.

“Madiane states she and Var are both Smokers. Keldorn seems to corroborate the latter, and I am willing to believe it. But to those of you who wield these powers, I ask: how have you used them?

“I hear the concerns that my attack on Var, supported by Madiane, seems like a defensive tactic. But have I not suspected Var from the beginning?

“The Spiked will strike tonight. Maybe Var is not among them. But I see no one here more suspicious. So please, I beg you. Citizens of Blackkeep. Foreigners. The fate of this town is in our hands. Will you unite to protect it?”

Kéamen lowered his arms, exhausted. He had pulled the string of fate. He would let the threads unravel.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

"Jox, what's your current read then of Antari?"

"I would hesitantly guess he's village. I've already said otherwise in past analysis, but his last minute desperate defense of Fox, followed by him saying he wasn't a Seeker in private, leads me to lean he's village. I feel like there is enough benefit for a spiked to claim Seeker at this point in the game, even with the risk, that Antari would have if he had been evil. I likely would have accepted it, and then he could have lied to me today about the results of his scan. Either saying a Spiked was a villager, or saying a villager was a Spiked."

48 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

”They nearly outnumber us. And let me tell you this; they will strike. As late as they can afford, they will likely launch a group vote, and doom is all. As members of the village, we must choose a shared target. We must unite.” Kéamen felt something of a grin creeping on his face.

Jox shook his head. "There are flaws in that I can't quite articulate. Do you assume that all of the spiked will be in the square at the last minute? Why would they run that risk when they could simply defend eachother during the day. Trying to get everyone to Unite right now feels like a waste of effort. If we all unite on a Villager, as the spiked would want us to do, they don't need to hammer vote on one person."

Jox shut up. He tried to picture it in his head, and tried to figure out how to speak it.

"Let's assume 3 possible scenarios. In Scenario A, eight people vote on a Spiked, who votes on anyone else. The Spiked team cannot perform a Hammer vote to save the Spiked. This is the ideal scenario that you want, with Var as the Spiked getting executed. In Scenario B, eight people vote on a Villager, who votes on anyone else. The Spiked team do not bother to perform a Hammer vote. Obviously, I want Scenario A, as do all the Villagers, but we cannot differentiate between Scenarios A and B until it is too late, and someone dies. Equally obviously, we're not going to reach Scenario A or B. There is no clear consensus on who to vote for."

"That leaves us with Scenario C, in which some combination of people have votes on them. Since there are 9 people alive, that leaves us with 3 sub-scenarios. C-2, there are 2 people with 4 votes each. C-4, there are 4 people with 2 votes each."

"If we manage to get multiple spiked up for execution, we can attempt to prevent a Hammer by counter hammering on whomever people hammer off of. As in, if Alvron and Wilson both have 4 votes, and Meta and Claincy last minute switch from Alvron to Wilson, we can try to prevent that by having anyone who is voting for Wilson switch to Alvron. But, the obvious problem with that, is what to do if Alvon and Wilson are both Villagers? We're once again at Scenario B, in which the spiked do not need to bother with hammering."

Jox leaned to the side, wishing he could somehow speak in parenthesis. "For simplicity's sake, I'm pretending that a Tie still results in an execution. I'm pretending as such because we're not going to have a perfectly tied execution, and assuming otherwise means I won't finish talking until after the execution happens."

"I think I've talked myself into wanting to having the votes spread out for maximum spread, so that we can watch for last minute hammers, and try to counter-hammer. I think I need to do some statistics to figure this out though, and I simply don't have the time."

Jox kinda wished he hadn't said anything now. 

"Also, I realized my previous vote tally was wrong. This one is correct, I hope."

Var (3): Keldorn 1, Antari 4, Kéamen 9, Madiane 10
Mil (0): Var 2
Madiane (2): Josha 3, Jox 11
Josha (0): Jox 5
Kéamen (2): Var 6, Mil 8
Antari (1): Keldorn 7
Jox (0):
Keldorn (0):

 

Edited June 20, 2025 by A Jo in the Bush
Standardizing the links to votes

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

5 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

"I would hesitantly guess he's village. I've already said otherwise in past analysis, but his last minute desperate defense of Fox, followed by him saying he wasn't a Seeker in private, leads me to lean he's village. I feel like there is enough benefit for a spiked to claim Seeker at this point in the game, even with the risk, that Antari would have if he had been evil. I likely would have accepted it, and then he could have lied to me today about the results of his scan. Either saying a Spiked was a villager, or saying a villager was a Spiked."

Jox shook his head. "There are flaws in that I can't quite articulate. Do you assume that all of the spiked will be in the square at the last minute? Why would they run that risk when they could simply defend eachother during the day. Trying to get everyone to Unite right now feels like a waste of effort. If we all unite on a Villager, as the spiked would want us to do, they don't need to hammer vote on one person."

Jox shut up. He tried to picture it in his head, and tried to figure out how to speak it.

"Let's assume 3 possible scenarios. In Scenario A, eight people vote on a Spiked, who votes on anyone else. The Spiked team cannot perform a Hammer vote to save the Spiked. This is the ideal scenario that you want, with Var as the Spiked getting executed. In Scenario B, eight people vote on a Villager, who votes on anyone else. The Spiked team do not bother to perform a Hammer vote. Obviously, I want Scenario A, as do all the Villagers, but we cannot differentiate between Scenarios A and B until it is too late, and someone dies. Equally obviously, we're not going to reach Scenario A or B. There is no clear consensus on who to vote for."

"That leaves us with Scenario C, in which some combination of people have votes on them. Since there are 9 people alive, that leaves us with 3 sub-scenarios. C-2, there are 2 people with 4 votes each. C-4, there are 4 people with 2 votes each."

"If we manage to get multiple spiked up for execution, we can attempt to prevent a Hammer by counter hammering on whomever people hammer off of. As in, if Alvron and Wilson both have 4 votes, and Meta and Claincy last minute switch from Alvron to Wilson, we can try to prevent that by having anyone who is voting for Wilson switch to Alvron. But, the obvious problem with that, is what to do if Alvon and Wilson are both Villagers? We're once again at Scenario B, in which the spiked do not need to bother with hammering."

Jox leaned to the side, wishing he could somehow speak in parenthesis. "For simplicity's sake, I'm pretending that a Tie still results in an execution. I'm pretending as such because we're not going to have a perfectly tied execution, and assuming otherwise means I won't finish talking until after the execution happens."

"I think I've talked myself into wanting to having the votes spread out for maximum spread, so that we can watch for last minute hammers, and try to counter-hammer. I think I need to do some statistics to figure this out though, and I simply don't have the time."

Jox kinda wished he hadn't said anything now. 

"Also, I realized my previous vote tally was wrong. This one is correct, I hope."

Var (3): Keldorn 1, Antari 4, Kéamen 9, Madiane 10
Mil (0): Var 2
Madiane (2): Josha 3, Jox 11
Josha (0): Jox 5
Kéamen (2): Var 6, Mil 8
Antari (1): Keldorn 7
Jox (0):
Keldorn (0):

 

Kéamen didn’t agree with what Jox said here.

Hammering Var here was the village’s best solution. His battery was dying, though, so he would have to trust someone else to explain it best.

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

I likely would have accepted it, and then he could have lied to me today about the results of his scan.

"He would have to explain what his scans were for the past two days," Keldorn pointed out. "And why he wasn't clear in his defense of Fox, much less why it was him defending Fox rather than any of his scans, not to mention it'd be a nasty coincidence if everyone he scanned wound up dead and this wasn't communicated. There are just too many gaps in standard Seeking doctrine for this to be something acceptable at face value, and anyone who did believe it probably fell off the turnip cart yesterday. I'm finding it strange you thought you would be satisfied by this."

Edited to add:

For clarity, Keldorn added, "It's especially the sort of scheme I'd expect a veteran to be more resistant to." Jox's ancestors would probably have encountered Beetle, not to mention there was something a Lord Pending had pulled off, a long time ago.

Edited June 20, 2025 by Kasimir