Shardic Inconsistency

[Trusk'our he/him]

There's something that's been bugging me.

Shards and their mental/temporal abilities feel wildly inconsistent to me.

Taravangian claims to have greater brilliance than on even his most genius days as a mortal where he could accurately plan out years in advance with no access to the SR, but can still have his plans regularly foiled by various mortals (Adolin successfully defending Azir, his Fused failing to take the Planes, Kaladin aiding the Heralds and reforming the Oathpact, and Dalinar screwing him over by the end- though admittedly that last one would be less predictable due to its great sacrificial requirements, it going against who Dalinar was before, and Dalinar at the time also having access to the SR).

What's more, can't Shards slow down time to a crawl? Taravangian takes 20 years to train Gavinor, but for some reason can't increase his reaction time for plotting against a couple of human assassins?

I know that these abilities mess with storytelling due to their potency, but this feels like the kind of issue that most media have with speedsters- the abilities are poorly portrayed instead of weakening them or changing the story to fit them properly. 

Thoughts on this? Counter arguments?

[Darth_Hel]

So, even the Diagram wasn’t perfect. He thought Dalinar had to die, and some other problems. It also seemed to occur during a time when not much was happening that wasn’t caused by Taravangian. A lot of it was probably just the most likely occurrences in the chain, still a great ability but more like knowing that knocking down the first domino will likely knock down the last one.

Also, there are now several forces opposing him that are his equal or at least throw a wrench in his plans. Hoid, Cultivation, Renarin, Whatever Nohadon is, etc that have access to future sight or the ability to block future sight/fiddle with things.
 

Future sight in the Cosmere is probabilistic with no guarantees that people will act a specific way. More intelligence and power means he can probably see and plan for the most likely responses with his own responses where they’re unlikely to be able to counter it. But, it seems like he has to be focused on that specific area, he’s not all knowing at all times. So, people taking a path he didn’t plan for can still throw him, or intervention by a force that can throw things onto a much less likely path.

This is why I think that counting Cultivation’s plans as having failed is premature. She’s had longer to practice all of this, longer to plan, and apparently had pretty good future sight capabilities. I’m not sure that she didn’t plan Nohadon’s intervention, or at least see it.

[Ashbringer he/him]

4 hours ago, Trusk'our said:

There's something that's been bugging me.

Shards and their mental/temporal abilities feel wildly inconsistent to me.

Taravangian claims to have greater brilliance than on even his most genius days as a mortal where he could accurately plan out years in advance with no access to the SR, but can still have his plans regularly foiled by various mortals (Adolin successfully defending Azir, his Fused failing to take the Planes, Kaladin aiding the Heralds and reforming the Oathpact, and Dalinar screwing him over by the end- though admittedly that last one would be less predictable due to its great sacrificial requirements, it going against who Dalinar was before, and Dalinar at the time also having access to the SR).

What's more, can't Shards slow down time to a crawl? Taravangian takes 20 years to train Gavinor, but for some reason can't increase his reaction time for plotting against a couple of human assassins?

I know that these abilities mess with storytelling due to their potency, but this feels like the kind of issue that most media have with speedsters- the abilities are poorly portrayed instead of weakening them or changing the story to fit them properly. 

Thoughts on this? Counter arguments?

So there's some points I think there's more of a reason for, and some that aren't.

Taravangian destroyed Kharbranth not to just deal with Cultivation's assassins, but to clear it off the board. If he'd just killed the assassins or otherwise stopped them (which I'm not sure the then-bound-Odium could even do), Cultivation would just send more. Wiping out Kharbranth permanently stops Cultivation or anyone else from being able to manipulate him in that way, and sends a much greater message to Cultivation about what he's willing to do to win. Of course, there's also the asterisk that Taravangian wasn't able to go through with actually killing the people of Kharbranth, which may come back to bite him, but it was a very good move.

(I think also, slowing time in order to have more time to think, as a Shard with a theoretically infinite mind, wouldn't necessarily be effective - for a more grounded example, no reason to burn Bendalloy to gain more time to plan alone when you could tap Zinc instead.)

Kaladin needing to renew the Oathpact came as a consequence of Dalinar giving up Honor, so that follows, and also had interference from Wind. Adolin holding Azimir and Venli winning the Plains are weirder. It's possible there are explanations for why those moments come with interference - the strange Fourth Moon Metal and the Well of Control messing with Shard's sight around Narak, and the Unoathed possibly being a result of Shardic interference - but otherwise Taravangian just made a plan and was wrong.

 

However, I think there are some discrepancies about. Taravangian (and Rayse, by proxy) both didn't seem to be able to predict the creation of Retribution and the arrival of the Night of Sorrows, as ... but many of these events are alluded to in Death Rattles or by Renarin's Voidbinding. Indeed, those have been proven wrong only a few times, and often because of something like how Vin beat Atium, where foreknowledge of a predicted future can beat that future (i.e. Sigzil stopping Vyre because he knew the future from Leyten).

A clue might be in Tanavast's PoVs - he frequently just lets events happen because he becomes too distracted with other things and doesn't notice the centuries pass by. He had no idea that Mishram's binding would have such disastrous effects. Perhaps Taravangian would have been able to prevent Kaladin's renewal of the Oathpact had he cared to look at what could happen from that, but he was so dumbfounded by Dalinar's table-flipping. (Or as a corollary, perhaps Taravangian would have predicted Retribution happening, and the following issues, had he ever even conceived of the possibility Dalinar would hand him Honor.)

 

1 hour ago, Darth_Hel said:

So, even the Diagram wasn’t perfect. He thought Dalinar had to die, and some other problems. It also seemed to occur during a time when not much was happening that wasn’t caused by Taravangian. A lot of it was probably just the most likely occurrences in the chain, still a great ability but more like knowing that knocking down the first domino will likely knock down the last one.

Also, there are now several forces opposing him that are his equal or at least throw a wrench in his plans. Hoid, Cultivation, Renarin, Whatever Nohadon is, etc that have access to future sight or the ability to block future sight/fiddle with things.
 

Future sight in the Cosmere is probabilistic with no guarantees that people will act a specific way. More intelligence and power means he can probably see and plan for the most likely responses with his own responses where they’re unlikely to be able to counter it. But, it seems like he has to be focused on that specific area, he’s not all knowing at all times. So, people taking a path he didn’t plan for can still throw him, or intervention by a force that can throw things onto a much less likely path.

This is why I think that counting Cultivation’s plans as having failed is premature. She’s had longer to practice all of this, longer to plan, and apparently had pretty good future sight capabilities. I’m not sure that she didn’t plan Nohadon’s intervention, or at least see it.

As Darth_Hal notes, we also really only saw the Diagram pieces that succeeded even though several had failed. But also the Diagram was largely unopposed - it was Cultivation's design, and worked to Odium's interest for the most part, with no other chance for Fortune-based interference besides a little from Renarin and Shallan(?). Taravangian is directly competing with Cultivation's plans, has Renarin and Rlain now sticking into a major point of interference in his plans in Mishram, and is also just new to this level of power.

As for Cultivation having planned even this... I'm not sure. It could go either way. But the Wind, perhaps, had some influence to this.

Edited February 22, 2025 by Ashbringer

[Treamayne]

6 hours ago, Trusk'our said:

What's more, can't Shards slow down time to a crawl? Taravangian takes 20 years to train Gavinor, but for some reason can't increase his reaction time for plotting against a couple of human assassins?

Short answer, No.

Time in the Spiritual Realm is mutable, and that is how Odium trained Gavinor. 

Time in the Physical realm (such as Babatharnish Assassins going for his family) requires either specific MoIs (Bendalloy, Cadmium) or very large amounts of Invesiture in the Physical and/or Cognitive Realm (Sel Time Dilation due to the Dor, Roshar Time Dilation due to Retribution changing so much of the planet's Physical and Cognitive structure)

6 hours ago, Trusk'our said:

Taravangian claims to have greater brilliance than on even his most genius days as a mortal

Exactly, Taravangian claims such things, but he's fooling himself. From his internal monologue and actions I would guess he's average (compared to his mortal scale Adro devised for him) - just with more access to Fortune (and very little practice using it (and, in my opinion, he does not yet realize his available perception is influenced by his Shardic Intent)). He thinks he is seeing the big picture because he is not currently smart enough to realize his limitations. Afterall, that's how Leras Batman Gambitted Ati - he knew Ruin (limited by Intent) would never be able to predict a future where Sacrifice allowed Preservation to attack him if it killed both Vessels.

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Taravangian (and Rayse, by proxy) both didn't seem to be able to predict the creation of Retribution and the arrival of the Night of Sorrows, as ... but many of these events are alluded to in Death Rattles or by Renarin's Voidbinding.

I took this not as failure to Predict the Night of Sorrow, and more that he didn't realize the full extent of what the Night of Sorrows would entail. Limited by his Intent, he was merely sure it meant he Won - not what form that "victory" would take.

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

He had no idea that Mishram's binding would have such disastrous effects.

Honor could never have used Fortune to see the effects of an action predication of Betrayal of Oaths; both because Honor is less apt at future sight to begin with, and because those possibilities do not match Honor's intent.

[Ashbringer he/him]

24 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

Short answer, No.

Time in the Spiritual Realm is mutable, and that is how Odium trained Gavinor. 

Time in the Physical realm (such as Babatharnish Assassins going for his family) requires either specific MoIs (Bendalloy, Cadmium) or very large amounts of Invesiture in the Physical and/or Cognitive Realm (Sel Time Dilation due to the Dor, Roshar Time Dilation due to Retribution changing so much of the planet's Physical and Cognitive structure)

Shards and similarly very-high-powered Invested individuals can cause Physical Realm time dilation. The Stormfather and Dalinar stretched time in RoW when Kaladin was falling off the tower, and I think Rayse stretched time to talk to Taravangian while Szeth was stabbing him. 

The Spiritual Realm's an easier way to do it, for sure. But also for the case of minds, Shards exist mostly in the Spiritual, so I think they'd be able to take time to think without necessarily dilating the Physical.

27 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

I took this not as failure to Predict the Night of Sorrow, and more that he didn't realize the full extent of what the Night of Sorrows would entail. Limited by his Intent, he was merely sure it meant he Won - not what form that "victory" would take.

Maybe for that example.

But for another, a Death Rattle predicted "Ten People, with Shardblades Alight" which seemingly refers to the Unoathed - who specifically foiled Taravangian's plans to win Azimir. So Moelach, a Spren of Odium, not only predicted that the Unoathed would defend Azimir, but also that there would be a defense of Azimir when that only became possible when Taravangian killed Rayse.

Moelach is weird. I can see it going to Kharbranth to tempt Taravangain to side with OB, but then it went to go hang out in the Peaks, then came to the Shattered Plains seemingly only to spook Sigzil, which seemingly just let Sigzil escape with his life.

35 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

Honor could never have used Fortune to see the effects of an action predication of Betrayal of Oaths; both because Honor is less apt at future sight to begin with, and because those possibilities do not match Honor's intent.

He seemed to see the outcomes of the Heralds fully breaking their Oaths - but only once he actually looked at Ishar's prodding. He's not great at it, but Odium's supposed to be one of the best, and he clearly missed some things.

It may just be for Taravangian there that because so much of the ending cascaded from Renarin and Rlain freeing Mishram, he had too much interference there.

[Treamayne]

8 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Shards and similarly very-high-powered Invested individuals can cause Physical Realm time dilation. The Stormfather and Dalinar stretched time in RoW when Kaladin was falling off the tower, and I think Rayse stretched time to talk to Taravangian while Szeth was stabbing him. 

Yes and no - those were accomplished by pulling the person into a Spiritual Realm vision, then returning them with little to no time in the Physical Realm having passed. That is very different than using investiture to affect Physical Realm time. Tarvanagian could have (and seemingly did) increased his perception and thoughts to have more reaction time-to-think; but he could not have slowed the Babath assassins or affected their perception of time as he could not harm them (binding) and could not use visions to pull them out of the Physical Realm (lack of Connection).

14 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

So Moelach, a Spren of Odium, not only predicted that the Unoathed would defend Azimir, but also that there would be a defense of Azimir when that only became possible when Taravangian killed Rayse

That is not what Moelach's death rattle said:

Quote

Ten people, with Shardblades alight, standing before a wall of black and white and red.

That may be the event that corresponded to the Death Rattle, but the Death Rattle itself said nothing about Azimir and had no context from which to deduce that it pertained to Azimir or to Unoathed. A recurring theme in the Cosmere is that accessing Fortune can be wrong (many possibilities) and that interpreting Fortune can also be wrong (no context).

20 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

He seemed to see the outcomes of the Heralds fully breaking their Oaths

Except he didn't, really. He was wrong on almost every count (except that Taln alone could hold the line - which is the result of teh one that did uphold his Oath).

[Ashbringer he/him]

4 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

Yes and no - those were accomplished by pulling the person into a Spiritual Realm vision, then returning them with little to no time in the Physical Realm having passed. That is very different than using investiture to affect Physical Realm time. Tarvanagian could have (and seemingly did) increased his perception and thoughts to have more reaction time-to-think; but he could not have slowed the Babath assassins or affected their perception of time as he could not harm them (binding) and could not use visions to pull them out of the Physical Realm (lack of Connection).

Are they that different? Clearly with a Shard or similar power holding the reigns, the Spiritual Realm can act as a pretty good Physical Realm analogue, or the little Kharbranth experiment is going to end very quickly.

The Stormfather did explicitly slow time Physically for Kaladin in RoW, before Dalinar sent him into a vision, and also does so when the highstorm grants Stormlight. There's also a WoB about Bondsmiths being able to compress time to some degree.

Maybe Taravangian didn't have the proper Connection to the assassins to pause their time, but Kaladin wasn't dramatically connected to the Stormfather... and Odium certainly could harm them, seeing as he crushed them with a tsunami.

16 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

That may be the event that corresponded to the Death Rattle, but the Death Rattle itself said nothing about Azimir and had no context from which to deduce that it pertained to Azimir or to Unoathed.

A recurring theme in the Cosmere is that accessing Fortune can be wrong (many possibilities) and that interpreting Fortune can also be wrong (no context).

It does correspond - it's the title of the WaT Chapter when the Unoathed appear.

Maybe Moelach trades in interpretability for accuracy, somehow, but we also never see anyone try and interpret the Death Rattles. Presumably Taravangian and the Diagram tried, but we never see what their successes with that are past OB, and before then they were doing quite well but not perfect.

And that's kind of the issue - Fortune being wrong or misinterpreted is a recurring theme in the Cosmere. It's not a recurring theme with the Death Rattles. Those have almost always been correct, if cryptically so, and referencing events that have passed beyond plausibility for other future-sighters like Wit and Odium himself. I think the only explicitly wrong Death Rattles we've seen is the Thousand Days one, which predicted the Everstorm's arrival but off by 200 days, and the Scholar with a Spear one that Sigzil both knew and specifically acted to make impossible. And there's not many unattributed ones left.

Or to the point of the thread - Moelach had an idea of what was to come. The Wind did as well, and both before the Everstorm even arrived. And Renarin's visions. But somehow, not Odium. That's strange.

37 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

Except he didn't, really. He was wrong on almost every count (except that Taln alone could hold the line - which is the result of teh one that did uphold his Oath).

When Ishar is explaining his plan to leave the Oathpact to Taln, Honor sees 'a frightening number of futures where the Heralds stopped fighting'.

[Treamayne]

On 2/22/2025 at 11:03 PM, Ashbringer said:

The Stormfather did explicitly slow time Physically for Kaladin in RoW

Right, but Stormfather is a moving Perpendicularity (which is how he renews spheres with Stormlight). Kaladin does have a Connection to Tanavast (which is, at least in-part Stormfather) we just don't know the full details yet. He's been called "Child of Honor" and "Child of Tanavast" repeatedly since WoK.

On 2/22/2025 at 11:03 PM, Ashbringer said:

It's not a recurring theme with the Death Rattles. Those have almost always been correct, if cryptically so, and referencing events that have passed beyond plausibility for other future-sighters like Wit and Odium himself.

Right, but that's the Trelawney effect. Any "prophesy" sparse enough in detail will always be found to have been correct in hindsight because it could reference anything - so hindisght says it was correct in "thing that already happened." It's the Scam artists stock-in-trade - foretell something minor with little detail and the mark will find it was "true" because "this happened."

To be clear, I'm not saying the Death Rattles aren't accessing Fortune - I'm saying that something like "Ten Shardblades before a wall of black and white and red" could just as easily applied to ten 3rd oath Radiants fighting Singers at the Shattered Plains (or any other similar event) and that just knowing the Death Rattle would not have allowed TOdium to predict it would be fulfilled at Azamir by Unoathed. There is not enough detail for that analysis before the event occurs.

On 2/22/2025 at 11:03 PM, Ashbringer said:

to the point of the thread - Moelach had an idea of what was to come.

I'm not sure that Moelach did. For one, Moelach is a non-Sapient Unmade - Mindless and doing nothing more thn using the Realmic Transition of Death to take, for example, one pane of what Renarin might see as a possible event and have teh person dying utter what they see in that short frame of Fortune. Having multiple Death Rattles that referenced the Climax of WaT doesn't show that Moelach knew any of those events. It only shows that Fortune displayed many possibilies that all converged on these events with similar outcomes.

On 2/22/2025 at 11:03 PM, Ashbringer said:

When Ishar is explaining his plan to leave the Oathpact to Taln, Honor sees 'a frightening number of futures where the Heralds stopped fighting'.

Which is not the same as Heralds breaking their oaths. Here's the reference (WaT Ch 122):

Spoiler

“Maybe,” ISHAR SAID. “But maybe…” HE FINALLY LOOKED UP. “I have an idea…”

HE EXPLAINED IT, AND I LISTENED WHILE ALSO SEARCHING THE PERMUTATIONS.

AND TO MY HORROR, I BEGAN TO SEE A FRIGHTENING NUMBER OF FUTURES WHERE THE HERALDS STOPPED FIGHTING. I HADN’T … I HADN’T NOTICED WHAT IMMORTALITY WAS DOING TO THEM. NOT JUST IMMORTALITY—THERE WAS MORE. MY POWER. THEY COULD NOT HOLD SO MUCH OF MY POWER.

So, he's not even seeing the results of the Oathpact and Ishar's idea here - he's seeing permutations of the effect of Honor over-investing the Heralds.  Possible futures predecated on his use and sharing of Power, not the results of Oaths kept of broken.

Edited February 24, 2025 by Treamayne
SPAG

[Returned he/him]

They are inconsistent, though specific examples are hard to pin down because so much about what they can do (and how and why) has not been revealed. They are also bound by agreements which limit their ability to use their powers in certain ways, at least sometimes, so what we see isn't a reliable way to determine the scope of their abilities.

The biggest issue, I think, is that much about Shardic existence and the Shards themselves are explicitly beyond mortal comprehension-- you need the expanded mind and existential properties of a Shard to really understand it. For the rest it's a lot like explaining three dimensions to a being that exists in two dimensions: very abstract, and some of it just isn't going to translate. It used to be less of a problem because we saw the Shards so infrequently but now that they're on the main stage so often and their abilities so core to what plays out on the page that issues are more obvious than they used to be. When more has been written we might see that there is an internally consistent, highly satisfying system which governs all of this but that's a long way off. For now some things are going to be whatever the plot needs them to be and we won't be able to tell if that's a sign of awkward writing or a very nuanced system.

Futuresight is a particularly frustrating issue for me because in practice it's narratively arbitrary. It's either unbeatable or worthless, perfectly informative or no better than guesswork, and you can't know which until a whole scheme is over. Consequently the specific mechanics of it don't matter that much, though fans here love to speculate regardless .

[Ashbringer he/him]

16 hours ago, Treamayne said:

Right, but Stormfather is a moving Perpendiculariy (which is how he renews spheres with Stormlight). 

Not sure if that's known for certain, as the Coppermind doesn't mention the Stormfather using Honor's Perpendicularity besides when Dalinar or Ishar makes it.

Or rather, the Stormfather can slow time because he's very highly Invested, which may let him do things that you'd need a perpendicularity's power to do... or a Shard's. But if the Stormfather can do it on largely a whim, a Shard can likely too.

16 hours ago, Treamayne said:

Right, but that's the Trelawney effect. Any "prophesy" sparse enough in detail will always be found to have been correct in hindsight because it could reference anything - so hindisght says it was correct in "thing that already happened." It's the Scam artists stock-in-trade - foretell something minor with little detail and the mark will find it was "true" because "this happened."

To be clear, I'm not saying the Death Rattles aren't accessing Fortune - I'm saying that something like "Ten Shardblades before a wall of black and white and red" could just as easily applied to ten 3rd oath Radiants fighting Singers at the Shattered Plains (or any other similar event) and that just knowing the Death Rattle would not have allowed TOdium to predict it would be fulfilled at Azamir by Unoathed. There is not enough detail for that analysis before the event occurs.

Eh - the trick with these is most of Trelawney's "prophesies" (besides the big two she did) either come true definitively or end up just plain wrong. Death Rattles are pointedly vague but almost always correct. Renarin's are more in principle, showing a few possible futures, but they also have a tendency to be right and seemingly reach beyond Odium's foresight.

The other point is that we know that the Death Rattles that connect to the WaT Day 10 chapters are definitively referencing those events, because that's how they're set up narratively. We know, as certain as possible, that that Death Rattle references the Unoathed, and that most Death Rattles did come true in a specific way. But that's not something the characters know, that's something we as readers know because of how the book is chaptered.

17 hours ago, Treamayne said:

I'm not sure that Moelach did. For one, Moelach is a non-Sapient Unmade - Mindless and doing nothing more thn using the Realmic Transition of Death to take, for example, one pane of what Renarin might see as a possible event and have teh person dying utter what they see in that short frame of Fortune. Having multiple Death Rattles that referenced the Climax of WaT doesn't show that Moelach knew any of those events. It only shows that Fortune displayed many possibilies that all converged on these events with similar outcomes.

Maybe Moelach isn't sapient enough to be truly aware of what he's reading, true. But Moelach is accessing that Fortune, and he shouldn't have access to any future sight that Odium doesn't (unless Odium specifically cut out part of his future-sight... but he's still described as being one of the best at it, and why would he do that?). But the multiple Death Rattles referenced do show that Moelach successfully predicted a majority of these events.

Meanwhile, Renarin is aware. Maybe doesn't have the full capacity to interpret, but he does to witness, and he also saw events more contingent on Retribution than the Unoathed (namely the reforming of the Oathpact in the Spiritual Realm).

 

We don't know if Moelach is getting any more than what his Death Rattles say, but Odium's futuresight should be much stronger than Moelach's, and Moelach's is accurate. So I think it's reasonable that Odium, with his much greater capacity, should have had a better picture about what that (and several other) Death Rattles are leading to, but Odium, Wit, and Cultivation seemed to discount any of these possibilities. Wit even makes a comment that he has no idea how Dalinar, even with Honor, foresaw this outcome of Retribution. But somehow Moelach could give the Fortune that regularly saw it.

[Nitpicking]

One point not mentioned yet, but the Cosmere has the Dune Effect: one future-predictor finds it very difficult or impossible to predict the actions of another future-predictor. Thus, two atium users negate each other's advantage.

[Treamayne]

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Not sure if that's known for certain, as the Coppermind doesn't mention the Stormfather using Honor's Perpendicularity

I did not say he's using Honor's perpendicularity, I said Stomfather is a Perpendicularity when crossing the continent as a Highstorm. I did not write that page, but I'll let the person working on those updates know (or I'll fix it) because we not only have Stomfather's own words (OB Ch 119), we also have a WoB.

Spoiler

OB Ch 119:

Quote

Fortunately, the field was covered in glittering gemstones. Stormlight in plenty.

A direct conduit to the Spiritual Realm, the Stormfather said. You renew spheres, Dalinar?

“We are Connected.”

Stormfather makes the connection, because this is also how the Highstorm renews spheres.

WoB:

Quote

Narkac

Where does the Stormlight in highstorms come from? Is there like a "rain cycle", but for the Stormlight?

Brandon Sanderson

The Stormlight in the highstorm is transferred from the Spiritual realm through the Stormfather into the highstorm.

Paris signing (Oct. 22, 2016)

 

 

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

but he's still described as being one of the best at it

Do you have a source for this? I can not find anything saying Odium is "one of the best" at Futuresight. All we know for certain is that 4000+ years after Aharietiam, modern Vorinism teaches that "foretelling the future is of the enemy" (in which they entirely ignore or have forgotten that it was a Oart of Cultivation before Odium even came to Roshar). The known Shardic Intents best at Futuresight (so far) are Cultivation and Preservation.

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

but Odium's futuresight should be much stronger than Moelach's

Again, do you have a source for this? We have no indication that I can find that Moelach has any futuresight at all - all we know of that Unmade is that he Connects a Dying Soul to Fortune as the barrier to Realms thin for that soul at the moment of death. For all we know, Moelach never even hears the resulting Death Rattle at all - it's likely a Physical Realm side effect of his presence in the Cognitive Realm of a region.

 

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 hour ago, Treamayne said:

I said Stomfather is a Perpendicularity when crossing the continent as a Highstorm.

Hmm. Fair. I tend to think of Perpendicularity as either the Shardpools or something specifically emulating them.

But still, my point is that he can do Physical realm time dilation.

1 hour ago, Treamayne said:

Do you have a source for this? I can not find anything saying Odium is "one of the best" at Futuresight. All we know for certain is that 4000+ years after Aharietiam, modern Vorinism teaches that "foretelling the future is of the enemy" (in which they entirely ignore or have forgotten that it was a Oart of Cultivation before Odium even came to Roshar). The known Shardic Intents best at Futuresight (so far) are Cultivation and Preservation.

We also know Wit warns Shallan about anyone who can see the future. And that Odium tends to give powers that do see the future.

I thought there was one, maybe not, I don't really want to dive through all of OB looking for one. iirc we know Cultivation is better than Honor, Preservation's better than Ruin, Ruin is bad at it. Odium's certainly quite capable of it, which is a few steps above Ruin at minimum. But he's widely considered to be good at it.

1 hour ago, Treamayne said:

Again, do you have a source for this? We have no indication that I can find that Moelach has any futuresight at all - all we know of that Unmade is that he Connects a Dying Soul to Fortune as the barrier to Realms thin for that soul at the moment of death. For all we know, Moelach never even hears the resulting Death Rattle at all - it's likely a Physical Realm side effect of his presence in the Cognitive Realm of a region.

... do I have a source that a fragment of Odium's power would probably be worse at futuresight than the remaining whole of Odium's power?

... mathematics?

I'd consider "Connecting a dying soul to Fortune" to be futuresight. Accessory to futuresight, at worst. For all we know also, Moelach could be directly relaying every Death Rattle he causes to Odium. It should be within Odium's power, and wouldn't be the first time Odium directly leveraged one of the mindless Unmade to achieve specific ends - he did so with Nergaoul in OB. I think also, most Unmade tend to exist on all three realms unless they're strange (Yelig-nar).

But we've gotten pretty far off the thread topic anyway.

[QuantumAce]

21 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Maybe Moelach isn't sapient enough to be truly aware of what he's reading, true. But Moelach is accessing that Fortune, and he shouldn't have access to any future sight that Odium doesn't (unless Odium specifically cut out part of his future-sight... but he's still described as being one of the best at it, and why would he do that?). But the multiple Death Rattles referenced do show that Moelach successfully predicted a majority of these events.

When you say Moelach is successfully predicting events, you mean a select few of Moelach's references to a specific detail of an event with little to no context later appear to be correct. Not necessarily useful in any way from a strategic standpoint. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

18 minutes ago, QuantumAce said:

When you say Moelach is successfully predicting events, you mean a select few of Moelach's references to a specific detail of an event with little to no context later appear to be correct. Not necessarily useful in any way from a strategic standpoint. 

No, I mean a vast majority of Moelach's references to a specific detail of an event with little to no visible context later are confirmed to be correct.

Is that strategically useful? Maybe, maybe not, but Moelach is also capable of being more specific (Scholar with a Spear) if some conditions are met. And Odium would be better at retrieving that context.

[QuantumAce]

12 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

No, I mean a vast majority of Moelach's references to a specific detail of an event with little to no visible context later are confirmed to be correct.

Is that strategically useful? Maybe, maybe not, but Moelach is also capable of being more specific (Scholar with a Spear) if some conditions are met. And Odium would be better at retrieving that context.

We have been shown a selected list of death rattles. I was under the impression this was not the majority. 

Odium might be more capable of sifting through related details for context, but I do not see much evidence he would be especially good it it. Odium is driven by passion for anger, not passion for data analytics. 

[Trusk'our he/him]

On 2/22/2025 at 4:22 PM, Darth_Hel said:

So, even the Diagram wasn’t perfect. He thought Dalinar had to die, and some other problems. It also seemed to occur during a time when not much was happening that wasn’t caused by Taravangian. A lot of it was probably just the most likely occurrences in the chain, still a great ability but more like knowing that knocking down the first domino will likely knock down the last one.

Also, there are now several forces opposing him that are his equal or at least throw a wrench in his plans. Hoid, Cultivation, Renarin, Whatever Nohadon is, etc that have access to future sight or the ability to block future sight/fiddle with things.
 

Future sight in the Cosmere is probabilistic with no guarantees that people will act a specific way. More intelligence and power means he can probably see and plan for the most likely responses with his own responses where they’re unlikely to be able to counter it. But, it seems like he has to be focused on that specific area, he’s not all knowing at all times. So, people taking a path he didn’t plan for can still throw him, or intervention by a force that can throw things onto a much less likely path.

This is why I think that counting Cultivation’s plans as having failed is premature. She’s had longer to practice all of this, longer to plan, and apparently had pretty good future sight capabilities. I’m not sure that she didn’t plan Nohadon’s intervention, or at least see it.

I suppose that's fair. The more real competition you have to move against, the less accurate your plan will turn out.

On 2/22/2025 at 5:31 PM, Ashbringer said:

So there's some points I think there's more of a reason for, and some that aren't.

Taravangian destroyed Kharbranth not to just deal with Cultivation's assassins, but to clear it off the board. If he'd just killed the assassins or otherwise stopped them (which I'm not sure the then-bound-Odium could even do), Cultivation would just send more. Wiping out Kharbranth permanently stops Cultivation or anyone else from being able to manipulate him in that way, and sends a much greater message to Cultivation about what he's willing to do to win. Of course, there's also the asterisk that Taravangian wasn't able to go through with actually killing the people of Kharbranth, which may come back to bite him, but it was a very good move.

 

Kaladin needing to renew the Oathpact came as a consequence of Dalinar giving up Honor, so that follows, and also had interference from Wind. Adolin holding Azimir and Venli winning the Plains are weirder. It's possible there are explanations for why those moments come with interference - the strange Fourth Moon Metal and the Well of Control messing with Shard's sight around Narak, and the Unoathed possibly being a result of Shardic interference - but otherwise Taravangian just made a plan and was wrong.

 

However, I think there are some discrepancies about. Taravangian (and Rayse, by proxy) both didn't seem to be able to predict the creation of Retribution and the arrival of the Night of Sorrows, as ... but many of these events are alluded to in Death Rattles or by Renarin's Voidbinding. Indeed, those have been proven wrong only a few times, and often because of something like how Vin beat Atium, where foreknowledge of a predicted future can beat that future (i.e. Sigzil stopping Vyre because he knew the future from Leyten).

A clue might be in Tanavast's PoVs - he frequently just lets events happen because he becomes too distracted with other things and doesn't notice the centuries pass by. He had no idea that Mishram's binding would have such disastrous effects. Perhaps Taravangian would have been able to prevent Kaladin's renewal of the Oathpact had he cared to look at what could happen from that, but he was so dumbfounded by Dalinar's table-flipping. (Or as a corollary, perhaps Taravangian would have predicted Retribution happening, and the following issues, had he ever even conceived of the possibility Dalinar would hand him Honor.)

 

As Darth_Hal notes, we also really only saw the Diagram pieces that succeeded even though several had failed. But also the Diagram was largely unopposed - it was Cultivation's design, and worked to Odium's interest for the most part, with no other chance for Fortune-based interference besides a little from Renarin and Shallan(?). Taravangian is directly competing with Cultivation's plans, has Renarin and Rlain now sticking into a major point of interference in his plans in Mishram, and is also just new to this level of power.

As for Cultivation having planned even this... I'm not sure. It could go either way. But the Wind, perhaps, had some influence to this.

That's a good point actually. Removing Kharbranth under the guise of sacrificing it would be a clever ruse.

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(I think also, slowing time in order to have more time to think, as a Shard with a theoretically infinite mind, wouldn't necessarily be effective - for a more grounded example, no reason to burn Bendalloy to gain more time to plan alone when you could tap Zinc instead.)

On 2/22/2025 at 9:18 PM, Treamayne said:

Time in the Spiritual Realm is mutable, and that is how Odium trained Gavinor. 

Time in the Physical realm (such as Babatharnish Assassins going for his family) requires either specific MoIs (Bendalloy, Cadmium) or very large amounts of Invesiture in the Physical and/or Cognitive Realm (Sel Time Dilation due to the Dor, Roshar Time Dilation due to Retribution changing so much of the planet's Physical and Cognitive structure)

Perhaps Todium couldn't form a Speed bubble to increase his time to plan as it would have interfered too much with the workings of those around him (in the same way he couldn't directly strike down Cultivation's assassins) but that shouldn't stop him from pulling a Sparker and giving himself hundreds to thousands of years over the span of a few seconds to look into every possible future, analyze every avenue of thought and history of each person in the equation. 

Then you just formulate multiple plans that can be called upon should any possible future arrive, and no matter the outcome you win.

This concept was explored in RoW, but I don't feel like it was really continued in WaT. Given Retribution's victory and others' views, I'm probably just being stingy. I just wish we had some more screen time exploring hyper intelligence and grand plans.

On 2/22/2025 at 9:18 PM, Treamayne said:

Exactly, Taravangian claims such things, but he's fooling himself. From his internal monologue and actions I would guess he's average (compared to his mortal scale Adro devised for him) - just with more access to Fortune (and very little practice using it (and, in my opinion, he does not yet realize his available perception is influenced by his Shardic Intent)). He thinks he is seeing the big picture because he is not currently smart enough to realize his limitations. Afterall, that's how Leras Batman Gambitted Ati - he knew Ruin (limited by Intent) would never be able to predict a future where Sacrifice allowed Preservation to attack him if it killed both Vessels.

A weird concept, given that Vessels are supposed to have vastly expanded minds, but that could be valid.

Perhaps Cultivation's Boon is still discretely at play?

I'd normally argue that a Shards can easily replicate nearly any mortal MoI, making zinc and steel Feruchemy or Cultivation's intelligence boon easy to achieve. 

However, if Cultivation does still have her hooks in Tarabution, I could see this being a thing.

 

Also, on the topic of Death Rattles being correct so frequently, it could be a bit like measuring in quantum mechanics: the more accurately you describe a future, the less likely it is to occur because of how narrowly defined it is. A vague prediction might be unable to help you much, but it will probably be correct since it can be plugged into so many timelines. 

Maybe this is part of why Fortune is typically vague? Maybe that helps make it more applicable to whatever you end up doing?

[QuantumAce]

14 hours ago, Trusk'our said:

A weird concept, given that Vessels are supposed to have vastly expanded minds, but that could be valid.

Vastly expanded minds, that are heavily influenced by shardic intent. In this case shardic intent the vessel does not have a firm grip on. 

14 hours ago, Trusk'our said:

that shouldn't stop him from pulling a Sparker and giving himself hundreds to thousands of years over the span of a few seconds to look into every possible future, analyze every avenue of thought and history of each person in the equation. 

Sounds like something smart Taravangian would be good at. Probably something Todium has the capacity for. Also something he is just as likely to overlook. Even if he does scan through possibilities, he is going to be drawn to solutions featuring quick and violent actions. 

[Darth_Hel]

Just a few comments on things said here.

About Azir, I could see this as the place that Taravangian cared least about. Beating Dalinar was important, and mentally he always wanted Dalinar to admit he was right. The Shattered Plains had a perpendicularity so that was important. Thaylenah’s ports were important, but that seemed more about beating Jasnah personally, otherwise he could have just skipped to the assassination back-up. But Azir is only a small area now, and Taravangian never had any real connection to Adolin, so it was probably the least important area to him strategically and personally.

Preservation and Cultivation are mentioned as good at future sight. Endowment probably is pretty good at it as well, considering she seems to have made it a cornerstone of her magic system with the returned. So, Zahel, Azure, and Nightblood are also things she’s help create directly/indirectly that could be mucking up Taravangian’s plans.

 

Moelach is an Unmade. If he can access bits of Fortune that Odium has trouble seeing, then it is perhaps a result of whatever investiture he was made of before corruption. Also, as others have pointed out, we probably only saw a small portion of the death rattles created. Ones that either did come true, or were deliberately subverted. So, between vagueness and possible unreliability, there wasn’t much reason for Taravangian to look into them anymore once he could dive into Future Sight himself. He used them as a crutch for extra info before that.