Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 (edited) 6 hours ago, Opal Lion said: Can you explain your Heron read? Sure. Part of it originated when Mouse and I began exploring a v!Meerkat world. We ended up looking at Heron and I posited that e!Heron would have no need to join a train on a 3rd Villager (Iguana). (Also, if in an e!Meerkat world, I believe they would be more likely to bus rather than risk tying their alignments). If you look at the chain of events: Spoiler @08:03 Mouse signals Albatross to check their PM @08:18 Quartz introduces a third Iguana train @08:19 Albatross naked votes Iguana @08:26 Within 7 minutes Heron piles on with them I find this progression very natural and would expect an elim in a similar position to not make noise and get involved when there are two perfectly ripe ML's practically guaranteed. Or, if they did, I would expect it to be more reserved, or stilted, or inquisitive. Not to mention the fact that Heron's been on Iguana's case since nearly ~24 hours before that, as evidenced by this the following reads list, which I find both genuine and thorough. Additionally, here are some more posts that reflect their interest in solving, whether it be via pointed questions at other slots or spewing any thought that seems to surface: Spoiler It was their approach to N2 that clinched it for me personally. I feel that most elims play nights more passively. Perhaps they might attempt to push certain narratives based on the flip, but rather Heron is put on the defense from two fronts (Zebra and Beagle) and rather than fold, they reply confidently, continue to press Quartz, engage Iguana (who they are consistently suspicious of), and even follow up on Chameleon's reply to a Beagle question: Spoiler Overall this slot just seems overtly towny to me. Ironically enough, for many of the same reasons I'm v!reading you, Lion. Edited January 10 by Fuchsia Ostrich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 (edited) Vulture Scorpion Penguin Swan Tuatara Weasel Albatross Crocodile Dingo Heron Flamingo Lion Beagle Chameleon Rhinoceros Zebra Iguana Kangaroo Meerkat Elephant Wait I thought we started with 22 players, not 25 lol. I was about to start working on a read pyramid but oof. Too lazy for all that right now. VREADS: Heron, Lion, Albatross, Swan, Penguin, Meerkat, Beagle, Italics are based on gut / vague memories, have not revisited them recently enough to confidently say. Underlined are the higher priorities for me to figure out rn. Normies are all whomegaluls (Tuatara, Weasel, Crocodile, Dingo, Elephant). I'm tired and will slep now tho Oh and Vulture Edited January 10 by Fuchsia Ostrich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 23 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said: Reveal hidden contents Was working on this at the end of the turn but though I didn't get to analyse it, I need to post it before the forum eats it. Okay, so starting from Mouse's tally here, and updating for the game state an hour prior to the end of cycle, with Hyena and Meerkat tied with 5 votes. 42 min: Zebra votes Iguana (Hyena 5, Meerkat 5, Scorp 2) 41 min: Meerkat votes Hyena (Hyena 6, Meerkat 5, Scorp 2) 36 min: Albatross votes Iguana (Hyena 6, Meerkat 5, Scorp 2, Iguana 2) 34 min: Heron votes Iguana (Hyena 6, Meerkat 5, Iguana 3, Scorp 1) 18 min: Chameleon votes Iguana (Hyena 6, Meerkat 4, Iguana 4, Scorp 1) Then the other trains fall away. 13 min: Zebra votes Kangaroo (Hyena 6, Meerkat 4, Iguana 4) 9 min: Beagle votes Chameleon (Hyena 6, Meerkat 3, Iguana 4, Chameleon 2) 5 min: Beagle votes Hyena (Hyena 7, Meerkat 3, Iguana 4, Chameleon 1) 3 min: Chameleon votes Hyena (Hyena 8, Meerkat 3, Iguana 3, Chameleon 1) 2 min: Zebra votes Hyena (Hyena 9, Meerkat 3, Iguana 2, Chameleon 1) 1 min: Ostrich votes Hyena (Hyena 10, Meerkat 2, Iguana 2, Chameleon 1) 1 min: Beagle votes Chameleon (Hyena 9, Meerkat 2, Iguana 2, Chameleon 2) 1 min: Albatross votes Meerkat (Hyena 9, Meerkat 3, Iguana 1, Chameleon 2) Alright, finally getting back to this. So some of the votes are fairly reactionary - (Meerkat to put Hyena ahead of themselves, Chameleon voting Hyena after Beagle voted Chameleon (although Beagle had moved off by that point, but the turn around is very quick). Other were just bandwagonning. I don't really have the energy to dive into each player right now, so there's limited info I think that can then actually be drawn from the above. I'd want to know why all the people jumping on Hyena were doing so, but they may already have been answered. Probably where I'll start looking next. 23 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said: I am able to provide a list of those who were on for D2 EoD if that helps your vote analysis. Would be curious about that if you did have names. (Ah, I see you link them here. Thanks) Doing a read through of thread, feel like I'm like Heron's responses to the Scorpion interrogation. But I do need to read through their posts in more detail. Will try do that next. Would like to hear from Vulture about what their deal is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 I think I can understand the progression read on them and I can force myself to see some villagness in their posts you linked but they still don't seem blatant to me. Their big post with reads, while being long, doesn't show any thoughts on the specific people- only a summary of their posts with reads listed but nothing there to really show how they got there. When they hopped on Iguana Hyena was still in the lead and it seemed to me like no one was really going to overtake hyena. I can understand the perspective of an Elim not wanting to make any sort of wave but with them previously being on a vanity wagon it doesn't make much difference in my eyes, still sitting on someone that isn't going to flip. [off topic but if Zebra and Iguana are possibly teamed if one flips E, as Zebra started the hopping off as soon as it reached 4, and then swapped back to Hyena. Still think Iguana is likely V though] I do think that his reaction to being pushed at SoD today wasn't bad. I want to village read his explaination of not voting Heron because it shows a semi lack of TMI in the "i don't think he's village, i just don't have enough of a read," and it reads more like a villager hedging and not wanting to be wrong more than an Elim hedging and not wanting to be caught on a bad village wagon. I still don't think he's completely village but I'm fine with going elsewhere today. -- So you don't think that iguana is a villager despite reasoning that Heron is village because an Elim wouldn't vote a third villager? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: So you don't think that iguana is a villager despite reasoning that Heron is village because an Elim wouldn't vote a third villager? An elim also wouldn't vote their previously unpressured ally there imo (let alone fixate on them), so it wasn't a consideration. But yeah I have no idea what to make of Iguana myself (despite being a pseudo-chaos player, I have lots of difficulty forming confident reads on chaos players), so I do get Heron's constant heckling of the slot. Edited January 10 by Fuchsia Ostrich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Chameleon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Chameleon FTR I am fairly okay with a Chameleon exe (at least pending a response from the PR proxy I am in contact with), but I do instinctually feel Vulture needs to be handled ASAP. Mouse and I have also been back and forth on their slot for at least a full cycle trying to make sense of them. Surviving that CS shot doesn't instill much confidence. Edited January 10 by Fuchsia Ostrich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Quote Chartreuse Penguin (3): Azure Mouse, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo Ivory Dragonfly (3): Amber Vulture, Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich Charcoal Hyena (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Oxblood Beagle Coral Swan (2): Sage Kangaroo, Salmon Meerkat Onyx Flamingo (2): Magenta Albatross, Pearl Chameleon Saffron Iguana (2): Cream Tuatara, Melon Dingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1): Opal Lion Cream Tuatara (1): Saffron Iguana Melon Dingo (1): Charcoal Hyena Oxblood Beagle (1): Mint Heron Salmon Meerkat (0): Coral Swan Sapphire Elephant (1): Ivory Dragonfly Non-Voters: Indigo Weasel, Mauve Crocodile, Plum Rhinoceros Flamingo, Vulture, Penguin, Kangaroo, Albatross, Chameleon, Dingo, Elephant, Weasel, Rhinoceros Chartreuse, Kangaroo, [Albatross, Chameleon], Elephant, [Rhinoceros, Weasel, Dingo] Flamingo, Vulture, Kangaroo, Elephant, [Rhinoceros, Weasel, Dingo] Still not helpful, but where I am. If there's a team of 5 there's no more than 4 in the groups. If there's 6 then there's no more than 5. I do think that Chartreuse is most likely not on a team with Flamingo and Vulture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said: FTR I am fairly okay with a Chameleon exe (at least pending a response from the PR proxy I am in contact with), but I do instinctually feel Vulture needs to be handled ASAP. Mouse and I have also been back and forth on their slot for at least a full cycle trying to make sense of them. I’d be fine with that exe I suppose. I’m hoping the kill on them was a CS and not a MB but the lack of C1 kill does not support that theory. I dunno. I’m kind of at a loss after Hyena was village and I don’t have Mouse to bounce off of so I’m lowkey fine with a point and shoot at anyone in my poe but I can’t tell if that’s my post-wisdom-teeth-sedative wearing off Actually nah Heron I want to revisit them on my own rather than sheeping someone else in my poe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 I guess I'll switch my vote from Beagle to Scorpion. I do think one of the early voters on Hyena has a decent chance of being an eliminator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Coral Swan said: I guess I'll switch my vote from Beagle to Scorpion. I do think one of the early voters on Hyena has a decent chance of being an eliminator. Because voting wrong is somehow e!indicative? This isn’t a good point until a Hyena countertrain flips e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Ok actual slep now gn friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 48 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said: Sure. Part of it originated when Mouse and I began exploring a v!Meerkat world. We ended up looking at Heron and I posited that e!Heron would have no need to join a train on a 3rd Villager (Iguana). (Also, if in an e!Meerkat world, I believe they would be more likely to bus rather than risk tying their alignments). If you look at the chain of events: Reveal hidden contents @08:03 Mouse signals Albatross to check their PM @08:18 Quartz introduces a third Iguana train @08:19 Albatross naked votes Iguana @08:26 Within 7 minutes Heron piles on with them I find this progression very natural and would expect an elim in a similar position to not make noise and get involved when there are two perfectly ripe ML's practically guaranteed. Or, if they did, I would expect it to be more reserved, or stilted, or inquisitive. Not to mention the fact that Heron's been on Iguana's case since nearly ~24 hours before that, as evidenced by this the following reads list, which I find both genuine and thorough. Additionally, here are some more posts that reflect their interest in solving, whether it be via pointed questions at other slots or spewing any thought that seems to surface: Reveal hidden contents It was their approach to N2 that clinched it for me personally. I feel that most elims play nights more passively. Perhaps they might attempt to push certain narratives based on the flip, but rather Heron is put on the defense from two fronts (Zebra and Beagle) and rather than fold, they reply confidently, continue to press Quartz, engage Iguana (who they are consistently suspicious of), and even follow up on Chameleon's reply to a Beagle question: Reveal hidden contents Overall this slot just seems overtly towny to me. Ironically enough, for many of the same reasons I'm v!reading you, Lion. i would absolutely bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 21 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said: Cream Tuatara Mauve Crocodile Mint Heron Pearl Chameleon Quartz Zebra Sage Kangaroo Salmon Meerkat Finally figured out this post, I'll answer here instead of in PMs since I've never really liked PMs. I find it interesting first of all that your low tier is mostly inactives. But I'll trustfall TUATARA: Tuatara has no content, yeah. But they also don't give any cares. After you (Iguana) voted them at EoD1 for lurking, their only response was to vote you, tell you to stop watching who was reading up, and then continue lurking. If they were an Elim, why would they just go back to that and not care? Did they think they were protected enough to not have to try? Did they think antagonizing you more was an action that would take heat off them? They just don't seem to care how they are percieved. MAUVE: Another person with no content, but I mean no content. They did vote mouse on D2 though. Why? If they were an Elim, wouldn't you expect more TMI to come from a slot like that? a low posting non-existant Elim is more likely to have their few posts be more TMI filled than a normal posting Elim. Voting mouse like that shows that they have no clue what's really happening or people's opinions. MINT: Uh. Pretend I C/P Ostrich's post. Or something. QUARTZ: Hopping back onto Hyena when you know they're going to flip village is a strange move for an Elim to make at the end of the cycle. Not only that but Zebra was trying to find other wagons and bring up other wagons at the end of the day when Hyena wasn't being challenged at all. MEERKAT: Meerkat hasn't really said anything, but how blatant they've been with everything they've done is villagery. Yes, it was their CR, but specifically how they played D1 with not wanting to "make enemies" is something that Elims will do, yes, but not as blatantly as meerkat played it. Not only that but claiming to be vanilla while being a soother is townier of them, since if they were an Elim they would most likely either not claim anything or claim their role in an attempt to save themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Time to do a little weird analysis. Here's all the posted vote counts from D1 and D2. D1: Spoiler 1/3, 01:21 PM (Posted by Falcon): Spoiler Vote Tally Emerald Falcon (3): Charcoal Hyena, Magenta Albatross, Salmon Meerkat Amethyst Scorpion (2): Ivory Dragonfly, Sapphire Elephant Indigo Weasel (2): Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin Pearl Chameleon (2): Amber Vulture, Saffron Iguana Azure Mouse (1): Opal Lion Charcoal Hyena (1): Amethyst Scorpion Ivory Dragonfly (1): Pearl Chameleon Salmon Meerkat (1): Plum Rhinoceros Sapphire Elephant (1): Quartz Zebra 1/3, 05:19 PM (Posted by Falcon) Spoiler Vote Tally Sapphire Elephant (3): Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly, Pearl Chameleon Emerald Falcon (2): Charcoal Hyena, Saffron Iguana Saffron Iguana (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Melon Dingo Salmon Meerkat (2): Coral Swan, Plum Rhinoceros Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1): Opal Lion Charcoal Hyena (1): Onyx Flamingo Indigo Weasel (1): Chartreuse Penguin Oxblood Beagle (1): Mint Heron 1/3, 06:29 PM (Posted by Falcon) Spoiler Sapphire Elephant (3): Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly, Pearl Chameleon Ivory Dragonfly (2): Amber Vulture, Emerald Falcon Saffron Iguana (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Melon Dingo Salmon Meerkat (2): Coral Swan, Plum Rhinoceros Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1): Opal Lion Charcoal Hyena (1): Onyx Flamingo Coral Swan (1): Salmon Meerkat Indigo Weasel (1): Chartreuse Penguin Mint Heron (1): Saffron Iguana Oxblood Beagle (1): Mint Heron 1/3, 10:41 PM (Posted by Falcon) Spoiler Vote Tally Ivory Dragonfly (3): Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Emerald Falcon Sapphire Elephant (3): Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly, Pearl Chameleon Coral Swan (2): Sage Kangaroo, Salmon Meerkat Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1): Opal Lion Charcoal Hyena (1): Onyx Flamingo Indigo Weasel (1): Chartreuse Penguin Mint Heron (1): Saffron Iguana Oxblood Beagle (1): Mint Heron Saffron Iguana (1): Melon Dingo Salmon Meerkat (1): Coral Swan 1/3, 11:56 PM (Posted by Mouse) Spoiler Elephant (2): Zebra, Cham Meerkat (1): Swan Mouse (1): Lion Scorpion (1): Ele Weasel (1): Penguin Hyena (2): Dragonfly, Flamingo Beagle (1): Heron Iguana (1): Dingo Dingo (1): Hyena Swan (2): Meerkat, Kangaroo Dragonfly (3): Vulture, Falcon, Scorpion Heron (1): Iguana Penguin (1): Mouse 1/4, 02:52 PM (Posted by Mouse) Spoiler Charcoal Hyena (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle Ivory Dragonfly (3): Amber Vulture, Chartreuse Penguin, Emerald Falcon Coral Swan (2): Sage Kangaroo, Salmon Meerkat Sapphire Elephant (2): Ivory Dragonfly, Pearl Chameleon Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1): Opal Lion Chartreuse Penguin (1): Azure Mouse Mint Heron (1): Saffron Iguana Oxblood Beagle (1): Mint Heron Saffron Iguana (1): Melon Dingo Salmon Meerkat (1): Coral Swan Melon Dingo (1): Charcoal Hyena 1/4, 04:49 PM (Posted by Falcon) Spoiler Vote Tally Charcoal Hyena (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle Chartreuse Penguin (2): Azure Mouse, Emerald Falcon Ivory Dragonfly (2): Amber Vulture, Chartreuse Penguin Coral Swan (2): Sage Kangaroo, Salmon Meerkat Saffron Iguana (2): Cream Tuatara, Melon Dingo Sapphire Elephant (2): Ivory Dragonfly, Pearl Chameleon Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1): Opal Lion Cream Tuatara (1): Saffron Iguana Onyx Flamingo (1): Magenta Albatross Oxblood Beagle (1): Mint Heron Salmon Meerkat (1): Coral Swan Melon Dingo (1): Charcoal Hyena D1 Final Tally Spoiler Chartreuse Penguin (3): Azure Mouse, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo Ivory Dragonfly (3): Amber Vulture, Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich Charcoal Hyena (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Oxblood Beagle Coral Swan (2): Sage Kangaroo, Salmon Meerkat Onyx Flamingo (2): Magenta Albatross, Pearl Chameleon Saffron Iguana (2): Cream Tuatara, Melon Dingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1): Opal Lion Cream Tuatara (1): Saffron Iguana Melon Dingo (1): Charcoal Hyena Oxblood Beagle (1): Mint Heron Salmon Meerkat (0): Coral Swan Sapphire Elephant (1): Ivory Dragonfly D2: Spoiler 1/6, 11:16 AM (Posted by Chameleon) Spoiler Vote Tally Charcoal Hyena (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse Amethyst Scorpion (1): Mint Heron Chartreuse Penguin (1): Quartz Zebra Mint Heron (1): Opal Lion Onyx Flamingo (1): Pearl Chameleon Salmon Meerkat (1): Oxblood Beagle 1/6, 07:31 PM (Posted by Mouse) Spoiler Vote Tally Charcoal Hyena (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Fuchsia Ostrich Amethyst Scorpion (1): Mint Heron Chartreuse Penguin (1): Quartz Zebra Cream Tuatara (1): Pearl Chameleon Mint Heron (1): Opal Lion Onyx Flamingo (1): Amber Vulture Pearl Chameleon (1): Sage Kangaroo Plum Rhinoceros (1): Saffron Iguana Salmon Meerkat (1): Oxblood Beagle 1/6, 08:07 PM (Posted by Mouse) Spoiler Vote Tally Charcoal Hyena (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Fuchsia Ostrich Amethyst Scorpion (2): Mint Heron, Sapphire Elephant Plum Rhinoceros (2): Saffron Iguana, Salmon Meerkat Chartreuse Penguin (1): Quartz Zebra Cream Tuatara (1): Pearl Chameleon Mint Heron (1): Opal Lion Onyx Flamingo (1): Amber Vulture Pearl Chameleon (1): Sage Kangaroo Salmon Meerkat (1): Oxblood Beagle No Vote (X): Indigo Weasel, Onyx Flamingo, Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Charcoal Hyena, Magenta Albatross, Cream Tuatara, Melon Dingo, Plum Rhinoceros, Mauve Crocodile 1/7, 12:21 AM (Posted by Mouse) Spoiler Vote Tally Charcoal Hyena (4): Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich Amethyst Scorpion (2): Mint Heron, Sapphire Elephant Plum Rhinoceros (2): Saffron Iguana, Salmon Meerkat Azure Mouse (1): Mauve Crocodile Chartreuse Penguin (1): Quartz Zebra Cream Tuatara (1): Pearl Chameleon Mint Heron (1): Opal Lion Onyx Flamingo (1): Amber Vulture Pearl Chameleon (1): Sage Kangaroo Salmon Meerkat (1): Oxblood Beagle (Mouse did a lot of vote analysis HERE as well) 1/7, 03:41 PM (Posted by Penguin) Spoiler Vote Tally Charcoal Hyena (6): Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Fuchsia Ostrich Salmon Meerkat (3): Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon Amethyst Scorpion (2): Salmon Meerkat, Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1): Mauve Crocodile Chartreuse Penguin (1): Quartz Zebra Coral Swan (1): Mint Heron Mint Heron (1): Opal Lion Pearl Chameleon (1): Sage Kangaroo Plum Rhinoceros (1): Saffron Iguana 1/7, 04:29 PM (Posted by Mouse) Spoiler Vote Tally Charcoal Hyena (5): Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan Salmon Meerkat (5): Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Saffron Iguana Amethyst Scorpion (2): Salmon Meerkat, Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1): Mauve Crocodile Chartreuse Penguin (1): Quartz Zebra Coral Swan (1): Mint Heron Mint Heron (1): Opal Lion Pearl Chameleon (1): Sage Kangaroo 1/7, 05:36 PM (Posted by Mouse) Spoiler Vote Tally Charcoal Hyena (6): Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Salmon Meerkat Salmon Meerkat (5): Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Saffron Iguana Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mint Heron, Quartz Zebra Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1): Mauve Crocodile Mint Heron (1): Opal Lion Pearl Chameleon (1): Sage Kangaroo 1/7, 05:51 PM (Posted by Mouse) Spoiler Vote Tally Charcoal Hyena (6): Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Salmon Meerkat Salmon Meerkat (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Oxblood Beagle, Saffron Iguana Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mint Heron, Pearl Chameleon Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1): Mauve Crocodile Mint Heron (1): Opal Lion Pearl Chameleon (1): Sage Kangaroo D2 Final Tally Spoiler Charcoal Hyena (9) - Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Fuchsia Ostrich, Pearl Chameleon, Quartz Zebra, Salmon Meerkat Salmon Meerkat (3) - Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana Pearl Chameleon (2) - Oxblood Beagle, Sage Kangaroo Amethyst Scorpion (1) - Sapphire Elephant Azure Mouse (1) - Mauve Crocodile Mint Heron (1) - Opal Lion Saffron Iguana (1) - Mint Heron Also here's the tally for now, because might as well. Spoiler Mint Heron (3): Quartz Zebra, Amethyst Scorpion, Oxblood Beagle Amber Vulture (1): Fuchsia Ostrich Amethyst Scorpion (1): Coral Swan Chartreuse Penguin (1): Opal Lion Mauve Crocodile (1): Saffron Iguana Salmon Meerkat (1): Pearl Chameleon One word of warning: I'd be a little nervous about the Village building two opposing trust groups. It's fine for there to be multiple (I'm sure there are), but multiple mutually exclusive ones could lead to a divide-and-conquer fairly easily. Be wary. Any thoughts from you, @Sapphire Elephant? If Pearl Chameleon is Village your train was entirely village for a long time. (Mouse - yes I'll get to analyzing your death, other things have grabbed my attention) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said: Time to do a little weird analysis I assume you mean...it's time now? And you're working on it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: I assume you mean...it's time now? And you're working on it now? Hmm? Working on my other thing at the moment. I'm used to doing that kind of vote-track thing when there's a few more colors on it... I'm also just getting worried we're going to end up in separate camps while the Elims play divide and conquer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Just now, Chartreuse Penguin said: Hmm? Working on my other thing at the moment. I'm used to doing that kind of vote-track thing when there's a few more colors on it... I'm also just getting worried we're going to end up in separate camps while the Elims play divide and conquer. It's just that I wouldn't call that analysis, just information. The only non-flipped role you colored was you, and you didn't out any opinions or findings from it. So I was wondering if you were working on findings that you were going to post after that. And fortunately this is not a problem for me, as I'm not in any trust groups. In my opinions PMs should be used only if you need to share information with someone that you can't share with Elims. Seeker results fall into that. Still that's not analysis, so that's why I was asking. Who are you going to vote, Penguin ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: It's just that I wouldn't call that analysis, just information. The only non-flipped role you colored was you, and you didn't out any opinions or findings from it. So I was wondering if you were working on findings that you were going to post after that. And fortunately this is not a problem for me, as I'm not in any trust groups. In my opinions PMs should be used only if you need to share information with someone that you can't share with Elims. Seeker results fall into that. Still that's not analysis, so that's why I was asking. Who are you going to vote, Penguin ? That's fair, I suppose. I like having information around, even if I have to spend time digging to get it. Sometimes it helps people who are smarter than me, sometimes it helps me find places to start. And there's a lot of places to start, now. There's the vote messes of D1, which - in my opinion and with my alignment, hence why I only colored myself - is probably best to leave alone outside of some smaller cases. The only major trains of D1 that haven't either flipped or had more expansive votes D2 are Elephant (which I'm curious about, but it also connects to Chameleon), Penguin (hello! most of the people who voted me seemed to trust me after), and Swan (which was only by 2 votes, so I'll put a pin in it). So until we get more flips - probably going to leave that be for a moment. There's the vote messes of D2, which IMO are more interesting - Meerkat getting just close enough to the exe to fear for their lives before safely lowering, and Iguana not even getting that far. That's mostly what the vote analysis is for. And, conveniently enough, that also ties in to Pearl Chameleon. Other notable strange votes were partially outlined by Albatross earlier, but include Zebra and Beagle (Zebra being the one to start a Iguana flash-train then being first to abandon it, and Beagle being the one to widen the Hyena-Meerkat gap). There's the fact that Amber Vulture somehow survived a Coinshot/Mistborn-Coinshot attempt, when there were much more valuable Lurcher targets and @Amber Vulture has yet to really acknowledge it. There were also, likely, more tempting Coinshot targets - Vulture's not incredibly village read, but more strongly village read than others, like perhaps Meerkat. Or perhaps my idea of people's reads are out of date. There's Pearl Chameleon's claim of Mistborn under duress, and claim of being Seeked. Both things I think we weren't expecting, and that threw me and others for a loop. And lastly, there's both of those last two things together: Vulture being attacked by an ostensible Third Mistborn at the same time Chameleon claims Second Mistborn and reveals a Seeker. Combined with two to three (I think Mouse mentioned three) circulating Smoker claims/flips, I'm really doubting we have three Village Mistborn (or two and a delayed Coinshot) and a Village Seeker. Or at least, that we have that kind of power versus an Elim team that doesn't have the power to answer it, and I don't think we've necessarily seen that power. (Not that we would have, depending on things, but... yeah.) For now, honestly, I'm voting Pearl Chameleon. The Seeker's got your flip, but honestly your flip is important for so many different things, and revealing so much after only a slight push is throwing me off a little bit. There's plenty of other suspects - I should probably put together a readslist soon - but I'm also waiting for a few more things to perhaps come to light. Also Murph has gotten good at killing Mistborn, would hate to not use his skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Heading out for a bit but before I do Penguin, You think that Amber is a strange coinshot target since you see people to be village reading them. your assumption from that is that it's time to kill the claimed mistborn? I don't really think pearl is a villager. I also don't think they're the right exe at all for today. If you think Amber is a strange coinshot target, why would you not assume that an Elim mistborn rolled and shot him? why is your assumption that instead the claimed mistborn is an Elim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: Heading out for a bit but before I do Penguin, You think that Amber is a strange coinshot target since you see people to be village reading them. your assumption from that is that it's time to kill the claimed mistborn? I don't really think pearl is a villager. I also don't think they're the right exe at all for today. If you think Amber is a strange coinshot target, why would you not assume that an Elim mistborn rolled and shot him? why is your assumption that instead the claimed mistborn is an Elim? My current opinion is that nothing about the Amber survival makes sense. I don't know why a V!Coinshot/Mistborn would pick them, and I don't know why an E!Coinshot/Mistborn would whether they were trying to emulate a Village one or going fully for the best second Elim kill or anywhere in between. It's a good, general, middle-of-the-road kill that feels very strange from the perspective of an Elim team that's hit Falcon and Mouse or a Village juggling Meerkat, Iguana, Heron, and so many barely-inactives. I also don't know why a Lurcher would be on them - they could be a Thug instead, but we have no way of knowing for the moment. Hence why I'm not assuming anything about that at the moment. There's also the distinct possibility that E!Mistborn!Chameleon shot at Vulture and chose to lie about it, because there's really not too much reason not to with this level of fog-of-war seemingly still in place and the Village trying to figure out how to read that kind of shot. You're voting on me at the moment. You think I'm more likely to be Elim than Chameleon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amber Vulture Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 (edited) Spoiler Sasha burned pewter. The warmth of it flooded her veins, a sense of strength and surety that had only ever been matched by the embrace of the mists. I need more time, she thought as she ran through the barren fields outside of Tyrian Falls. The mists were not available to settle her thoughts, but this was the next best thing. In the rhythmic exertion of running, she could almost forget the events of the night before. Blood. Hers? Someone else's? Sasha could not remember. Maihler's dead body lying before the last work of art he ever created. Coins flying through the mists, coming straight toward her. Blood. So much blood. "No!" Sasha shouted, her pace increasing. "Begone from me!" As if telling the unwanted thoughts to go away would actually work. She tried again to lose herself to the unthinking rhythm of running. Left, right, left, right, left, right, left, right- Your enemies are gathering, Olivya spoke. Will you let them twist the village against you? Will you let them survive after what they did to me? I don't know, Sasha replied. I don't know if they are actually my enemies, or simply misguided allies. I don't even know if I am right or wrong anymore. Is this how Bartleby and Char felt when the village began to turn against them? Sasha began to slow; her pewter was running low, and she was beginning to feel wounds she had collected last night, as well as her lack of sleep. She was so tired. Maybe this is for the best, she thought. I have already failed so many people. Maihler, Char, Tune, Bartleby...even you. Maybe I can only make things worse. NO, thundered Olivya. YOU HAVE NOT FAILED ME YET. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR YOU TO REDEEM YOURSELF, SASHA, AND IF YOU THROW THAT CHANCE AWAY, I WILL TORMENT YOUR SOUL FOR AS LONG AS IT REMAINS IN THIS REALM AND THE REALM BEYOND IT. I WILL RUIN YOU, SASHA. Sasha gasped. She had never heard her sister this angry. Sasha, Olivya continued, quieter. You are one of the most successful detectives in the dominance. You caught Korvell Ironeyes. You unmasked three high-ranking members of the Brass Syndicate. You killed the Night Vesper. You can solve this case, too. The only reason I managed to solve those was because none of the criminals involved knew I was a Thug, let alone a Twinborn. The entire village saw me survive what should have been deadly wounds. I've lost my edge. And, she added, I didn't kill the Night Vesper; she let me kill her. I still haven't worked out why. Still, your arcana is just another tool. Use your mind. Work through the people accusing you. How about Endsayer? I don't know that I can trust my mind anymore, Sasha replied. But...I'll try. Endsayer (Fuchsia Ostrich) has not said a ton in the main hall, but I know they have held many one-on-one meetings. Apparently Maihler (Azure Mouse) and them flipped back and forth on me for a while and figuring me out is one of their top priorities, though they have not said exactly why. I certainly trusted Maihler, so I guess that speaks well for Endsayer, assuming they are telling the truth. I have not settled on Endsayer yet, but neither do I feel like voting them. Interesting. And Zee (Quartz Zebra)? They called me out for not saying anything about the Coinshot attack, which is fair. They have said some strange things, so I am a little wobbly on them, but they do not seem as suspicious of me as Endsayer or Dragon. Mostly, I just want to see more from them. Certainly. What are your thoughts on Chameleon? Weird? Confusing? I don't know. Their tone and style keeps shifting and I can't keep up. I would not vote them yet, though. Okay, let's move on to Barney (Amethyst Scorpion). I am most positive on them, out of this lot. I have consistently agreed with much of their reads, even if I take issue with them not always providing their reasoning for reads. Certainly there is some weirdness present, but I would be rather surprised if they turned out to be your murderer. Understandable, but you must suspect anyone and everyone. Finally, what are your thoughts on Dragon (Mint Heron)? Dragon is the Coinshot Excuse me? At least, they are my top suspect. I was targeted right after reading Dragon as a villager, so that could have been a deflect. I have disagreed with a couple of their reads publicly, especially regarding Barney, though I feel like they would have just Coinshotted Barney in that case. However, following the Coinshot's failure to kill me, Dragon became more active in discussion than they had been before (though they had quietly mentioned their suspicions of me before then), which could have been them trying to execute me after their Coinshot failed. If this was the case, they might be more likely to be a Mistborn. And they did mention the Wounded Gazelle Gambit, which could be a cleverly subtle way to deflect suspicions, both of them being a Coinshot and one of the Spiked. Yeah, I'm not sure on that. If their goal was to be subtle with that comment, they failed miserably. That comment became the target of much scrutiny, and I agree with Barney and (Oxblood Beagle) that a WGG would probably never be performed using a Coinshot, so that point being Spiked-indicative is contestable. Ultimately, I get a vague bad feeling on Dragon, and I suspect them of being the Coinshot, but I am by no means certain on either point. We are working in the dark here, and you and I are both too paranoid for our own good. One can never be too careful. So, who are you voting for? Well, at this point, I think I will go for Dragon. I can't just keep tying myself in knots over doubt. If I'm wrong, I am wrong, and I've already been wrong twice. I just have to learn to live with that. So long as you continue to live. Be careful sister. I cannot protect you anymore, and I fear there will be even greater danger to come. And just like that, the Connection broke again. Sasha blinked. She had long since lost sight of Tyrian Falls, and it seemed time to return. Time to face the scrutiny of the other villages. Still Sasha could live with that, too. She did not fear the mists, and she did not fear the Coinshot that had attacked her last night. No, Sasha de Vries only feared one thing, and that was failing her sister. She could live with everything else. [OOC: That one got a little long, so I spoiler-boxed it for convenience of reading through the thread.] Mint Heron Edited January 10 by Amber Vulture Spelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 (edited) 5 hours ago, Amber Vulture said: I was targeted right after reading Dragon as a villager, so that could have been a deflect. What do you mean? Can you please answer my earlier question about why you v!read Heron last cycle? Apologies if I missed the explanation somewhere. Why are you assuming whoever targeted you must be an elim? I saw the village case on Heron. I’m not convinced, especially because in my experience elims often just latch onto one suspect (Iguana, in Heron’s case) that they weakly push for as long as they can. Their readslist from C2 also felt half-heartedly put together and I couldn’t really detect a process to them What I will give you is the point about their vote being left on Iguana in v!Meerkat worlds. Though sometimes elims just…do weird things. As an aside, why are so many people village reading Albatross? I know Mouse v!read them on the logic that they wouldn’t have killed Falcon. And that reason is fine for putting Alb aside momentarily, but I dont think that logic alone is sufficient to continue v!reading them 2 cycles later? @ Ostrich and other players I don’t remember. Chameleon, I think? I think Vulture straight up wanting to find and execute whoever shot them is mildly villagery. They’re incorrectly assuming that this must be an elim, but I don’t think an elim would confidently take that leap in logic in the thread. I v!read Penguin as well. Though I’m starting to think I’m almost certainly misclearing people. I saw Chameleon’s action claims and the C1 scan. These sure are some results. There is 100% an elim between Chameleon and the Seeker. If Chameleon is an elim the seeker does not exist, and if Chameleon is village the Seeker needs to die in my opinion. Edit: Quote (I might take my vote off them later, but I don't like the Hyena train, so.) @Sapphire Elephant why did you dislike the Hyena train? I was unable to find an explained Hyena read in your posts prior to this one; your read there had essentially been "nothing AI" during D1 and an unexplained categorization into V- during D2. Edited January 10 by Oxblood Beagle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 9 hours ago, Opal Lion said: Finally figured out this post, I'll answer here instead of in PMs since I've never really liked PMs. I find it interesting first of all that your low tier is mostly inactives. But I'll trustfall TUATARA: Tuatara has no content, yeah. But they also don't give any cares. After you (Iguana) voted them at EoD1 for lurking, their only response was to vote you, tell you to stop watching who was reading up, and then continue lurking. If they were an Elim, why would they just go back to that and not care? Did they think they were protected enough to not have to try? Did they think antagonizing you more was an action that would take heat off them? They just don't seem to care how they are percieved. MAUVE: Another person with no content, but I mean no content. They did vote mouse on D2 though. Why? If they were an Elim, wouldn't you expect more TMI to come from a slot like that? a low posting non-existant Elim is more likely to have their few posts be more TMI filled than a normal posting Elim. Voting mouse like that shows that they have no clue what's really happening or people's opinions. MINT: Uh. Pretend I C/P Ostrich's post. Or something. QUARTZ: Hopping back onto Hyena when you know they're going to flip village is a strange move for an Elim to make at the end of the cycle. Not only that but Zebra was trying to find other wagons and bring up other wagons at the end of the day when Hyena wasn't being challenged at all. MEERKAT: Meerkat hasn't really said anything, but how blatant they've been with everything they've done is villagery. Yes, it was their CR, but specifically how they played D1 with not wanting to "make enemies" is something that Elims will do, yes, but not as blatantly as meerkat played it. Not only that but claiming to be vanilla while being a soother is townier of them, since if they were an Elim they would most likely either not claim anything or claim their role in an attempt to save themselves. im not very subtle, am i lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Still going to go over stuff today but Cham for wagonomics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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