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Anniversary Game 10/Anonymous Game 14: Tyrian Falls Apocalypse


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Alright, we’re about on track for D1 of an AG >>

The most obvious vote manipulation is the cancellation of the vote on Meerkat, though I need to check the actual votes to see if Rioting is in play.

I am also recommending Allomancers’ choice of surgical or terminal Seeking on Penguin. Would also say that I read Chameleon village with a good deal of confidence (at least by C1 standards) and Iguana as the same with a bit less.

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Right now, I'm comprehending the situation. A few things stick out to me.

1. People seem to suspect Ostrich for voting EoD. It did indeed happen, but I'm guessing it was based off of a skim read if village. The only reason why e!Ostrich would draw attention to themselves is if they needed to save their e!partner, Chartreuse Penguin. Therefore, if Ostrich is elim, Chartreuse Penguin is likely to be as well.

2. People seem to believe that there is a lot of vote manipulation. I do not agree. There is two votes missing, and one vote added on to Hyena. There may be a case where there are three rioters and two chose the same target, but the likelyhood of that is small. Remember, votes added means a rioter. Votes removed could be many things. I suspect 1 soother and 1 rioter, although in my mind, there is an equal chance of having a non-voter rioter and two soothers. I suppose whether you believe there is a lot of vote manipulation depends on the relativity of your definition of a "normal" amount of vote manipulation.

3. As of right now, I would encourage the coinshot to shoot Chartreuse Penguin, Sapphire Elephant, or Hyena even. In my opinion, a shot in the low activity pool is better than not.

 

Pending items:

Readslist

Vote analysis 

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3 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

I am also recommending Allomancers’ choice of surgical or terminal Seeking on Penguin. Would also say that I read Chameleon village with a good deal of confidence (at least by C1 standards) and Iguana as the same with a bit less.

I'm going to go with a bit of a weird tack here, but bear with me.

Why?

When you voted on me, the only thing you had to add was "Let’s see something here." I had 3 votes at the time, tied with Charcoal Hyena - it wasn't exactly a new train, and you instead broke it for a fully aimed execution on me, without much else of a reason. Then End of Day passed, I'm not dead, and now you still want a Coinshot on me.

I'm not saying it's a terrible idea. Objectively, probably better for there to be another Village Mistborn than me, as much as I would like to keep playing. But I'm curious why you specifically want the Coinshot on me specifically. (@Pearl Chameleon , kinda goes for you too, but you also explained in your post somewhat... although you also voted Dragonfly so either way.)

In case anyone wants the target's opinion, I'm more curious about Fuchsia Ostrich.

Interesting decision, quite late in the cycle, and I'm rather curious what the decision-making process was on saving me and adding a few late reads. I may not want to die, but I don't know why anyone would really want to save me.

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1 minute ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

I'm going to go with a bit of a weird tack here, but bear with me.

Why?

When you voted on me, the only thing you had to add was "Let’s see something here." I had 3 votes at the time, tied with Charcoal Hyena - it wasn't exactly a new train, and you instead broke it for a fully aimed execution on me, without much else of a reason. Then End of Day passed, I'm not dead, and now you still want a Coinshot on me.

I'm not saying it's a terrible idea. Objectively, probably better for there to be another Village Mistborn than me, as much as I would like to keep playing. But I'm curious why you specifically want the Coinshot on me specifically. (@Pearl Chameleon , kinda goes for you too, but you also explained in your post somewhat... although you also voted Dragonfly so either way.)

In case anyone wants the target's opinion, I'm more curious about Fuchsia Ostrich.

Interesting decision, quite late in the cycle, and I'm rather curious what the decision-making process was on saving me and adding a few late reads. I may not want to die, but I don't know why anyone would really want to save me.

Yeah, I'd be fine with an Ostrich shot. 

After all, if ostrich flips E, then chartreuse penguin is probably also E.

Why do people want a chartreuse penguin shot? Because ideally, you would have died, if ostrich hadn't materialized from wherever- only The Lord Ruler knows where- you would've been flipped. 

I suppose after reconsidering it, I'm slightly shying away from a Penguin shot and more leaning towards a Ostrich shot.

Also, I didn't have my vote on dragonfly. My vote was on Flamingo for continuity errors (they said they preferred Hyena over you, and that was why their vote was on Hyena, but they changed their vote. Now they're V!reading me for pointing it out and voting on them, and I'm not sure what to think of that). I voted on dragonfly the first time to apply pressure to them (a fancy way of saying it was a poke vote), and then after they posted I think I switched to Elephant. When I voted them later, it was because I saw them lurking, and found it strange that they weren't trying to defend themselves- only because they were writing a megapost- and quickly unvoted once I realized after.

Do you read Ostrich as Elim or village for their EoD vote on Ivory?

 

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1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Yeah, I'd be fine with an Ostrich shot. 

After all, if ostrich flips E, then chartreuse penguin is probably also E.

Why do people want a chartreuse penguin shot? Because ideally, you would have died, if ostrich hadn't materialized from wherever- only The Lord Ruler knows where- you would've been flipped. 

I suppose after reconsidering it, I'm slightly shying away from a Penguin shot and more leaning towards a Ostrich shot.

Also, I didn't have my vote on dragonfly. My vote was on Flamingo for continuity errors (they said they preferred Hyena over you, and that was why their vote was on Hyena, but they changed their vote. Now they're V!reading me for pointing it out and voting on them, and I'm not sure what to think of that). I voted on dragonfly the first time to apply pressure to them (a fancy way of saying it was a poke vote), and then after they posted I think I switched to Elephant. When I voted them later, it was because I saw them lurking, and found it strange that they weren't trying to defend themselves- only because they were writing a megapost- and quickly unvoted once I realized after.

Do you read Ostrich as Elim or village for their EoD vote on Ivory?

 

Elim. Hence the point on my opinion on them being Coinshot.

From my perspective it's V-V, though, so not necessarily condemning. But the way it was clearly phrased to be essentially "I choose Dragonfly over Penguin" when I hadn't done much to deserve it was... could be setting up that E!Ostrich implies E!Penguin view from people. Maybe.

... could have sworn it was on Dragonfly at some point. No, it was briefly, just not at the end. Right.

And sort of the point with why people want a Me Shot, yeah, I would have died if not for Ostrich - but my not-so-biased opinion is that that says more about Ostrich than me. But I also wouldn't have died if not for Flamingo putting me in the lead in the first place, so I'm curious about that too.

Leads and crannies and bowstrings and potions. Much to do.

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((OOC: Whoops. My bad y'all. I showed up 8 minutes to EoD and had to power skim, which turned out to be the opposite of powerful. I completely missed Dragonfly's big read list (which in retrospect looks village enough that I would have voted elsewhere). Mostly I just saw the vote shifts to Penguin and Flamingo and responded as a counterweight without actual looking at a VC, but obviously I chose wrong and understand the suspicion. Suuuper unlucky tbh, but I suppose God works in mysterious ways.))

2 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

@Fuchsia Ostrich I see you lurking. Could you give us more insight into why you chose ivory dragonfly over chartreuse penguin or charcoal hyena? (Especially the former)

((Lurking? I just woke up m8))

((Mostly I remembered Falcon had suspicion of Dragonfly in a PM and I thought he was still voting him, so I decided to sheep it. But then I wake up today and someone else pointed out Falc switched to Penguin, so now I'm just embarrassed 😛 That and Mouse implied Penguin was a reincarnated Dingo w/ a meme and I didn't want to C1 Ash, which is ironic because Mouse was also voting Penguin and Mouse is also someone I felt comfortable sheeping. If I'd not made those mistakes re:Dragonfly, then I'd have probably voted Hyena instead of Flamingo, mostly because I had a really early negative gut read of you, @Pearl Chameleon, and didn't want to follow your push))

 

((To be extra clear, I saw this post by Penguin when trying to decide who to vote and just felt like sparing him :P:

dangit why did my posts not fuse this time))

Edited by Fuchsia Ostrich
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15 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

((OOC: Whoops. My bad y'all. I showed up 8 minutes to EoD and had to power skim, which turned out to be the opposite of powerful. I completely missed Dragonfly's big read list (which in retrospect looks village enough that I would have voted elsewhere). Mostly I just saw the vote shifts to Penguin and Flamingo and responded as a counterweight without actual looking at a VC, but obviously I chose wrong and understand the suspicion. Suuuper unlucky tbh, but I suppose God works in mysterious ways.))

((Lurking? I just woke up m8))ij

((Mostly I remembered Falcon had suspicion of Dragonfly in a PM and I thought he was still voting him, so I decided to sheep it. But then I wake up today and someone else pointed out they switched to Penguin, so now I'm just embarrassed 😛 That and Mouse implied Penguin was a reincarnated Dingo w/ a meme and I didn't want to C1 Ash, which is ironic because Mouse was also voting Penguin and Mouse is also someone I felt comfortable sheeping. If I'd not made those mistakes re:Dragonfly, then I'd have probably voted Hyena instead of Flamingo, mostly because I had a really early negative gut read of you, @Pearl Chameleon, and didn't want to follow your push))

The curse of me susing people for lurking and getting ninja'd by them immediately after posting is real.

And tbf there's been a lot of sheeping. I didn't expect Sapphire Elephant to become an actual train, as it was meant to be a poke vote. And I sorta figured that you skimmed the thread because a past chameleon did that last ag but yeah. Unfortunate.

To be fair, a lot of people have mixed reads on me, and it's sorta understandable? I'm trying to run a playstyle that uses bigger, heavier, analysis posts rather than a sequence of small ones, and it's not clashing well when I try to use both simultaneously.

2 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

((To be extra clear, I saw this post by Penguin when trying to decide who to vote and just felt like sparing him :P:

dangit why did my posts not fuse this time))

The post fusion thing only occurs within 15-30 minutes of posting the first post I believe.

Yeah, that post also made me hesitate to vote chartreuse penguin, and I also didn't want to vote hyena before even giving them a chance to defend themselves. 

In your opinion, do you think elims had significant influence on d1 voting?

 

Pending items:

Readslist

VCA

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30 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

That and Mouse implied Penguin was a reincarnated Dingo w/ a meme and I didn't want to C1 Ash, which is ironic because Mouse was also voting Penguin and Mouse is also someone I felt comfortable sheeping.

Spoiler

image.png?ex=65aa594d&is=6597e44d&hm=82e

 

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25 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

In your opinion, do you think elims had significant influence on d1 voting?

((OOC: Sadly it's 6:30 and I just got to work so will have get back to you on this in the evening. I intend to do a full readthrough of C1 in 1 sitting to see what I can glean.))

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Bad news: My laptop broke. Going full mobile mode now.

Bad news: Looks like RNGesus hates us.

Good news: ??

9 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Amethyst Scorpion (1): Sapphire Elephant
Azure Mouse (1): Opal Lion
Cream Tuatara (1): Saffron Iguana
Melon Dingo (0): Charcoal Hyena
Oxblood Beagle (1): Mint Heron
Salmon Meerkat (0): Coral Swan
Sapphire Elephant (1): Ivory Dragonfly

This is bad. Unless you were not online during rollover, I really do not think idling on a single vote wagon is a good look. Considering how easily emotional allomancy can affect wagons, I think we can do better than this.

I also think Pearl Chameleon is probably an elim.

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2 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

This is bad. Unless you were not online during rollover, I really do not think idling on a single vote wagon is a good look. Considering how easily emotional allomancy can affect wagons, I think we can do better than this.

 

Spoiler

image.png?ex=65aa7154&is=6597fc54&hm=03f

 

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10 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

People seem to suspect Ostrich for voting EoD. It did indeed happen, but I'm guessing it was based off of a skim read if village. The only reason why e!Ostrich would draw attention to themselves is if they needed to save their e!partner, Chartreuse Penguin. Therefore, if Ostrich is elim, Chartreuse Penguin is likely to be as well.

((OOC: TBF there were a bunch of two-vote trains so I could have been saving one of them instead. I didn't, but it does have me looking at Flamingo a bit))

Edited by Fuchsia Ostrich
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