On Obrodai

[Firesong]

I personally have come to think that Obrodai is likely a major Shardworld, with a Shard present. Due to a few reasons. 

1. Hoid had reason to go to the planet, and he usually goes to planets that have a Shard present, unless there is something special about the planet
2. This is further supported by the way in which she speaks of the idea of him returning to the planet, which suggests that there is something very important about it that would attract his attention. Enough that they have to actively ask him not to come again. 
3. Patji told him to "not return", which suggests he has been there before (probably a lot, reading between the lines of the letter), implies it has a Perpendicularity, which normally requires a Shard. 
4. Brandon has actively called it a Shardworld (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/260/#e8750)
5. The most major Avatar of Autonomy we have seen were Trell and Telsin, which were made as a way to try and hijack Scadrial. This might be another attempt to hijack another planet from a Shard. 
6. The Letter said "You should not return to Obrodai. We have claimed that world, and a new avatar of our being is beginning to manifest there." Which implies that this was not a Perpendicularity created by Autonomy or their Avatar, as Hoid would have been aware of this if it was, and they would know he is aware, and thus not feel a need to inform him like that. 
7. "You have spoken to one who cannot respond. We, instead, will take your communication to us--though we know not how you located us upon this world... We are indeed intrigued, for we thought it well hidden. Insignificant among our many realms." This shows that they have a particular view on the First of the Sun for its insignificance, related to the lack of a Shard or splinters thereof (not including Patji), but does not appear to think the same of Obrodai. They state their claim of it matter-of-factly, as if it were an obvious fact, a given. 
8. Brandon is very defensive about what Obrodai is, avoiding basically all questions surrounding it (RAFOs everywhere), which makes it feel as if it is something of significant importance. Something of such importance to cause him to be so defensive likely wouldn't be a random world that Autonomy decided to make Avatars on. 

In conclusion, Obrodai is likely a planet attended to by a Shard. On what Shard that may be

1. It is not Scadrial, for while a female Avatar began to form in the same relative timeframe (in the span of the Cosmere), Harmony spoke of Telsin becoming one as if it were extremely recent, and there was no obvious sign of it happening by the time of Bands of Mourning, which happens years after Oathbringer. She also did not display the "intense and overpowering dislike of [Hoid]". All of these factors disqualify it. Thus, it is not connected to Ruin, Preservation, or Harmony
2. "Endowment at least responded to my overtures, though I have not been able to locate Invention again following our initial contact.", this could suggest that after their first contact, Autonomy began to form an Avatar causing Invention to flee, which would explain the difficulty in locating them. 
3. "Whimsy was not terribly useful, and Mercy worries me. I do think that Valor is reasonable, and suggest you approach her again. It has been too long, in her estimation, since your last conversation.", while the comment about Whimsy makes sense with what little we know and what we can assume, the "Mercy worries me" I find particularly notable, given how Harmony was also dealing with the encroachment of Autonomy and their Avatars, so perhaps in his communications with Mercy he learned of something similar happening to them. The Intent of Mercy would also likely make it easier for Autonomy to put an Avatar there with little resistance. 
4. The idea of it being Mercy could be further supported by the fact that the Epigraph right after mentioning Ambition, Mercy, and Odium clashing went into "Other Shards I cannot identify, and are hidden to me. I fear that their influence encroaches upon my world, yet I am locked into a strange inability because of the opposed powers I hold.", instantly going to speak about Autonomy invading Scadrial. Which isn't undeniable evidence, but I find that it does create some form of connection between Ambition, Mercy, and Autonomy. My ideas on why it wouldn't be Threnody and Ambition can be found at point 9. 
5. "This is all we will say at this time. If you wish more, seek these waters in person and overcome the tests we have created.", I doubt Patji would request that Hoid return to First of the Sun if Obrodai was another one of the inhabited planets in the system, they likely wouldn't want him to get that close to it. Thus it is likely not Second, Third, or Fourth. This is furthered by their surprise at being found in the system, and their knowledge (and lack of suprise) that he knows of Obrodai.
6. It is definitely not Taldain, given Autonomy was already pretty openly hostile to people going to Taldain, and I see no reason she wouldn't just call it Taldain as that is the name used on the planet itself (and it is hers), and she also wouldn't really talk about it as if she just made claim on it. 
7. "Did you expect anything else from us? We need not suffer the interference of another. Rayse is contained, and we care not for his prison." -Patji, this implies that they care not for the Rosharan system. Thus the Rosharan system is out, and thus it is not Honor, Odium, or Cultivation that the planet is connected to. 
8. Endowment spoke very aggressively about intrusion on territory by other Shards, and gave names and implied other situations (basically, Sel and Roshar), though she said nothing about Autonomy. This would likely not be her not noticing, as she displays that she is very good at noticing intrusions ""I noticed its arrival immediately, just as I noticed your many intrusions into my land.", thus, I feel if she was being invaded by an Avatar, she would have noticed and mentioned it in her short harangue about Shardic invasions. 
9. Threnody is hard enough to enter and lacks of stable Perpendicularity, it also seems way too dangerous for Autonomy to be interested, and provides no clear benefit. I also see no reason why Hoid would want to return to Threnody enough to warrant a direct demand not to, and protocols in place to make sure he doesn't. So I doubt it is Threnody. 
10. I don't think it would be Valor, the communication between him and Patji seemed to imply he had been to Obrodai relatively recently, and with Valor " I do think that Valor is reasonable, and suggest you approach her again. It has been too long, in her estimation, since your last conversation.", which, while possible he had been to her planet not long ago and just not spoken to her, it feels more like he just hasn't even been near her in a while. Which would make it unlikely that her planet is Obrodai. 
11. It could potentially by Elantris, due to how Hoid is quite desperate to get AonDor (and continued to try for a long time even after Stormlight, see, Tress). This is somewhat supported thematically with how much relevance Sel has to The Lost Metal, where Autonomy gains a lot of relevance. We have Shai and Kaise, Forgery playing a prominent role, and Fion is maybe Fjon. This could suggest (on a meta level) that she was making an Avatar on Sel. The desire to get AonDor would also give Hoid a reason to return to the planet in question. It being a planet we know would also give Brandon a reason to say "RAFO" whenever asked if we have seen Obrodai before (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/173/#e8599). 

In conclusion, it is not Scadrial, Roshar, Braize, Ashyn, Taldain, Threnody, or anything in the Drominad System. And the planet is not associated with Ruin, Preservation, Honor, Odium, Cultivation, Autonomy, Ambition, Valor, or Endowment.

Thus it is likely tied to Whimsy, Invention, or Mercy. It may also be tied to the Dor and Sel. I lean closer to Invention, Mercy, or Sel. Whimsy I don't feel we have enough on. 

Think this is all I can theorize on at the moment, please give feedback on my theory and add your own ideas. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Firesong

[Treamayne]

Great post and reasoning. Two notes:

11 hours ago, Firesong said:

Obrodai is likely a planet attended to by a Shard.

Or used to have a shard (either because it was Splintered or departed). Just as the perpendicularity takes time to form after a Shard arrives, it should linger for a while after they depart. 

Also:

11 hours ago, Firesong said:

Obrodai is likely a major Shardworld

I feel like we should consider this is false. Not that your referenced WoB isn't valid - but we don't really know that Obrodai is referencing a planet.  You touched on it here:

11 hours ago, Firesong said:

This could suggest (on a meta level) that she was making an Avatar on Sel. 

We know that the location of Elantris is called Sycla by one faction and Opelon by a different faction. We do not know the Rose Empire's name for the Northern Continent and we know almost nothing about the third continent we have yet to see. Even if Orborodai is not on Sel, it could be a location (by-a-different-name) we have/haven't seen on a Shardworld we know (seen or unseen). 

 

PS: If Obrodai is the Rose Empire's continent - then we know Hoid was there to steal the Moon Sceptre. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Treamayne
Clarity/SPAG

[Firesong]

23 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

Greta post and reasoning. Two notes:

Or used to have a shard (either because it was Splintered or departed). Just as the perpendicularity takes time to form after a Shard arrives, it should linger for a while after they depart. 

Also:

I feel like we should consider this is false. Not that your referenced WoB isn't valid - but we don't really know that Obrodai is referencing a planet.  You touched on it here:

We know that the location of Elantris is called Sycla by one faction and Opelon by a different faction. We do not know the Rose Empire's name for the Northern Continent and we know almost nothing about the third continent we have yet to see. Even if Orborodai is not on Sel, it could be a location (by-a-different-name) we have/haven't seen on a Shardworld we know (seen or unseen). 

 

PS: If Obrodai is the Rose Empire's continent - then we know Hoid was there to steal the Moon Sceptre. 

I actually cited something that explicitly stated that Obrodai is a planet, and cited the WoB.

Quote

Questioner

Is Obrodai going to be the setting of Dark One?

Brandon Sanderson

Excellent question. That is also a RAFO. Sorry, sorry! This is partially because Dark One pops in and out of the cosmere a lot, depending on which version I'm doing. It's been the hardest book. For those who don't know anything about, this is a book I talk about in my blog once in a while... It's like the Harry Potter story, except you get told "By the way, you're the Dark One who's gonna destroy the world, so we're gonna assassinate you while you're a teenager, so that never happens." It's a really cool story that I have never been able to get to work.

Questioner

*inaudible*

Brandon Sanderson

Yeah, and Obrodai is one of the Shardworlds, but I keep popping Dark One in and out of the cosmere. Sometimes it feels too self-referential to the fantasy genre to actually be in the cosmere. Because I don't want the cosmere to be self-referential, right? Whenever something gets even a little too silly, I'm like, "Nah, this can't be in the cosmere anymore." So, we'll see what happens.

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/260/#e8750

and this

Quote

Questioner

How many of the worlds in the cosmere do you eventually plan to talk about that we don't know about?

Brandon Sanderson

...From what's been released, you've gotten almost all the important ones. There's, like, two or three ones I would consider relevant to... for instance, the planet that the Aethers, from Aether of Night, which is an unpublished book-- that's still part of the cosmere, I'm gonna do some stuff there. There are a couple of other worlds, one is mentioned in Oathbringer, just very briefly, in one of the epigraphs. There are others that I'll get to. But, when I designed the cosmere: Scadrial (Mistborn), Sel (Elantris), and Roshar were my pillars of the Cosmere story. With Yolen, the planet where it all started, just kind of being behind-the-scenes relevant. Those are the pillars of our story. Other planets will come into it, but those three-- there's nothing more important than the ones you've seen already.

Which actually implies it isn't Sel, so would make it likely down to Whimsy, Invention, or Mercy. 

[Quantus]

Devil's advocate statement: the "shardworld" could still probably be an Aether world without a resident Shard.  Especially if they provide some equivalent to a Perpendicularity for Reamic Travel.  

[Firesong]

48 minutes ago, Quantus said:

Devil's advocate statement: the "shardworld" could still probably be an Aether world without a resident Shard.  Especially if they provide some equivalent to a Perpendicularity for Reamic Travel.  

While that is possible, I have basically completely convinced myself it is a world associated with one of those three Shards. 

It is most likely not the Aether Homeworld, at least, the name just, doesn't fit with the linguistics we have for it. From everything we have seen, it avoids dipthongs and digraphs (outside of reduplication or long vowels).  But might be another random Aether world. 

[Quantus]

Oh, I wouldnt go so far as to say it's the Aether Homeworld any more than Lumar presumably is, but the presence of a Prime Aether could (potentially) accomplish a lot of the same characteristics. 

Separately, there's a possible prescedent for Autonomy sending an avatar to claim an Aetherworld, if the theories prove true that the White Sands are actually the rumored Bone Aether.  

[Treamayne]

40 minutes ago, Firesong said:

While that is possible, I have basically completely convinced myself it is a world associated with one of those three Shards. 

Right. You have convinced yourself that it is one of those three. I even happen to agree that is most likely. 

All I was trying to say was "don't discount the improbable based solely on Sanderson wordsmithing." He has a way of answering questions that (mis) lead to one chain of logic while obfuscating the truth. If the thread is about discussion of the topic, then I just wanted to bring up topics for consideration. 

Edit: If you didn't want discussion of alternate possibilities, please edit the thread title to add the [Support] tag so that readers know you are looking for evidence to help support your theory (rather than discuss possibilities related to that theory)

31 minutes ago, Quantus said:

Separately, there's a possible prescedent for Autonomy sending an avatar to claim an Aetherworld, if the theories prove true that the White Sands are actually the rumored Bone Aether.  

I, personally, think the relationship goes the other way. Somebody on Lumar heard of "White Sand" and thought "Wow, that sounds like an Aether Spore." And because they both use the Luhel bond, there are similarities. So, as stories of this spread they slowly became the myth of the legendary 13th Aether / Bone Spore that is both Black and White (though in Tress's present nobody actually remembers what that meant or why). 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Treamayne

[Firesong]

1 minute ago, Treamayne said:

Right. You have convinced yourself that it is one of those three. I even happen to agree that is most likely. 

All I was trying to say was "don't discount the improbable based solely on Sanderson wordsmithing." He has a way of answering questions that (mis) lead to one chain of logic while obfuscating the truth. If the thread is about discussion of the topic, then I just wanted to bring up topics for consideration. 

I, personally, think the relationship goes the other way. Somebody on Lumar heard of "White Sand" and thoguht "Wow, that sounds like an Aether Spore." And because they both use the Luhel bond, there are similarities. So, as stories of this spread they slowly became the myth of the legendary 13th Aether / Bone Spore that is both Black and White (though in Tress's present nobody actually remembers what that meant or why). 

I think that White Sand just is an Aether that Autonomy corrupted, personally. 

White Sand acts the same as a lot of Aethers, it is introduced to water and then pulls on Investiture to make something happen, we know there is a microorganism on the Sand which causes it to do this; I think this microorganism is some sort of corrupted Aether. 

And on Brandon misleading us, yeah, totally possible. But he was explicit several times it is a planet, while with things like Vax he is careful and only says "place", which can mean basically anything. So I feel there is some significance there.