Quick Fix Game 2: Crushthroat's Beginnings

[Peng the Just he/him]

"ritiidiikiiir is probably our best bet at this point. I will freely admit that there isn't much evidence against him at this point, but there isn't really much evidence against anyone. But, if we're going to kill him, the least we can do is spell his name right."

Edit:ninja'd

Edited July 6, 2014 by jasonpenguin

[Kasimir he/him]

GM Almighty: Could I request for an order of actions please? Specifically, I'd like to know if someone who is killed still has their vote count for the cycle. (I apologise if this is something I've missed out on when scanning the thread.)

Supreme Lynchmaster: Fair enough. Riikiitiikiitavii.

More thoughts regarding strategy from me: tying/making sure a lynch goes through will start to become a tricky proposition with the grappling hooks in play. One thing I tentatively suggest we could do, depending on how the order of actions works out, is to have all people who successfully got a grappling hook declare it if they're on our side. They can only use it for that cycle anyway, so a kill wouldn't stop their action. (My current suspicion, barring word from Meta the Almighty GM, is that grappling hooks go first and kills go utterly last.)

Therefore:

1. They won't be making big targets of themselves. Killing them won't deny us the use of the grappling hook as they only possess it for the next cycle as long as the Quartermaster lives. (GM: just to confirm--someone can't hang on to the grappling hook and decide not to employ it in the next cycle? It'd be immediately returned to the QM if he's still alive?)

2. I'd rather know where the grappling hooks are. It gives us some measure of accountability (in other words, we know who has it and therefore who the set of people who have made vote nullifications includes), which allows us to make sense of what's happening with the votes.

However: there's not much we can do to track and confirm that people with the hook do actually have it, or to otherwise prove that someone came into possession of a hook. On that side, we can't do anything to ensure Mutineer compliance. It'd be more a hopeful request to be able to add some accountability and information to our picture.

Last: I'm shifting my vote to Jene. If there isn't much evidence against Riitiidiikiir (and yes, that is the correct spelling, so you might want to adjust your post ) or anyone else, then I'd like to know what specifically makes you pick him out. While I'm going to wait and see if the Supreme Lynchmaster gets back into action in a bit, he's given a satisfactory explanation for the worries levelled against him at this point. What grounds your vote on him?

Edited July 6, 2014 by Kasimir

[Wyrmhero he/him]

We want them boxed in, yes, but we haven't got them in a box yet. We haven't even laid a trail, let alone a trap. By giving them the capability to vote in a circular manner, they can just hide their votes there, circling the box with everyone else, to continue this horrible metaphor. After all, their reasoning just has to be 'well, everyone else was doing that as well' at that point, and frankly we can't really say much about it. It justifies bad reasoning, which is not good.

 

Having said that, I'm not sure about whether to remove my vote or not as of the moment. I guess you've given the information I wanted though, so I will remove my vote from Jeno. I am not sure where to place it though. My suspicions are rather low at the moment, I will admit. I think I'll wait a few hours until before I head off, and look at what's going on then for the time being.

[jaelre he/him]

Assuming my count is correct:

 

Jene (2): Mai, Kai

Jain (2): Ratel, Riitiidiickiir

Jeno (1): Riingar, Wyrm

Riitiidiikiir (1): Jene, Kai

Kal FangShi (1): Jain

Aonar (1): Kal, Jeno

Matim (1): Jatae

Mai (0): Aonar

 

Hreo, Matim and Luka haven't voted yet.

 

I'm trying to avoid repeating my Game 6 wild and inconsequential imagination flights, beg forgiveness for my lack of participation to the discussion.

That said, I think getting a coin is important, so just for that sake I would vote for myself, but I'm currently more interested in catching Hreo's attention.

I hope I will be able to get online again before the next write-up to review my vote, to make a more pondered decision.

 

I do like Kasimir's idea of denying a potential misadventure with a threshold vote, but I would like to avoid giving the Mutineers, or anyone else, a chance to act like lev did in Game 6.

Seeing as the Grappling Hook won't be available til next cycle going for 2-2-2 seems unnecessary, and would provide choice where choice is the only thing we can't give up.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Well, no-one's posted since Jaelre and myself, so I'm going to place a vote on an inactive, Matim, and go to bed. Night all.

[Herowannabe he/him]

As it drew towards mid afternoon, Hreo finally stumbled out of the crew quarters. He was late or because he had slept in, but because some of the other crew members- probably those accursed mutineers- had thought it would be funny to drag him out of his hammock in the middle of the night and hang him up by his ankles. It had taken Hreo all morning and half the afternoon to untie himself.

As he staggered onto the deck, using his mop for support, he picked up snippets of the conversation. It sounded like the crew was getting ready to keelhaul someone in the hopes of ridding the ship of one of the mutineers. A few of the crew members, laughing behind their hands, had called Hreo out for not casting a vote yet, though of course they all knew where he had been all day. Not surprisingly, Jatae had accused Hreo. The only thing that was surprising was that more crew mates hadn't followed suit and tossed Hreo overboard already.

So at this point in the game I don't really have a clue who to suspect, but since Jatae voted for me and I know that I'm innocent... Well, there you go.

However, based on the soundness of people's arguments, here is who I'm pretty sure IS innocent. Hopefully by identifying them we can narrow down who ISN'T innocent:

Aonar (Aonar): as in games past, Aonar's arguments are sound and very un-helpful to the mutineers. He's right, in this game especially we need to talk and get information as quickly as possible

Kasimir (Kai): likewise, his reasoning for going for a tie-vote or at least a 4 vote lynching is a good one. The only flaw I see in his logic is that if we want a tie vote, it ought to also be a 3v3 or 4v4 tie. With a 2v2 tie it still leaves room for a last minute Mutineer rally ending up with 3 or 4 votes for our beloved Captain.

Renegade (Riingar): Same arguments and sound logic as Aonar and Kasimir. Doubt he's a mutineer.

Me: For what it's worth, I know I'm not a mutineer. Although I suppose that's exactly what a mutineer would say if he was trying to convince everyone he was innocent. Still, in this case, it's true.

The are a few others, such as Wyrm and Jeno, who I don't THINK are mutineers, but whose logic has been kind of haphazard, so I hesitate to clear them completely yet.

My only question now, is as a whole, are we trying for a tie-vote or are we trying to lynch someone today? I haven't been a fan of tie-vote strategies in the past (it's kinda like giving the mutineers a free day to kill somebody), and I'm still not, not really, but I'm willing to go along with it if that's what the group wants. It's true that it does give us a chance to collect information.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Week 1- In the Wake of the AonTeo

 

Cycle 1 begins! There is still only 24 hours between cycles, but each cycle will count for a week or so in game time. This won't affect the game any; it's more for write ups.

 

Just a quick note for RP, each Cycle is a Week. So whoever hung Herowannabe below decks, had him tied up and missing for the majority of a week. Sheesh guys, thats going a bit far.

 

Jeno swung back and forth in his Hamock, thinking about the past week. Ever since Paan had gotten himself killed, People had been panicking, accusing everyone else of being a Muntineer. Even he had suspected Aonar for a while, but he didn't know any more. The only one he really found suspicious was Luka. She had been even more quiet than Jeno was.

 

Last inactive has been voted for. Also, I'm not going RP Jeno doing any Work, because here'es Everything I know about Sailing: There's a mast, which has a Sail. There's also a Yardarm Somewhere. And either the rudder or the tiller steers the ship...

[Theorymaker he/him]

Matim had been reading a book, and well, kind of fell asleep. No one had been injured since Paan got killed, though apparently someone almost fell off of the crow's nest. So when a crewmember came to wake Matim up he was worried someone got injured, but all that really happened is somone had accussed him of being a mutineer. Getting on deck Matim saw the man who accused him. It was a Fjorden on the ship looking for him! Matim hid and then started spreading rumors that the man, Wyrm, was actually a mutineer.

 

Sorry, Wyrm the voting worked with my character and you voted for me. Also no one has voted for you yet so you are safe and most importantly I get free money from voting. Who doesn't like free money?

Edited July 7, 2014 by Theorymaker

[Newan he/him]

 

Yeah. I'm back.

 

 

I'm going to retract my vote for Jain because while I can't trust his actions, they do align with how he has acted in previous games.  Kal Fangshi voted against Aonar--specifically for playing more aggressively this game.  That should be a big warning sign with flashing lights. Aggressive=bad for mutineers.  

 

I'm going to place my vote on Jene to make him sweat a little, because I am really curious about why he voted against me.  There were two people suspicious of me, and one vote on me, but no evidence.  It seems to me that he was trying to push it into a bandwagon without looking like a bandwagon, but I could be wrong.  

[Metacognition he/him]

With about 2 hours to go before the cycle ends, I think it's about time for Round 2 of Rule Clarifications! 

 

For write up purposes, there will not be any difference between whether someone was protected via a Buckler or is a Gunner. No ones alliance will be revealed until their final death. 

 

If the Quartermaster dies, there will only be so many of each item available. Since the items are no longer returned at the end of the cycle (so no, you cannot hang onto an item before the Quartermaster is dead. Well, you can, but it doesn't do you much good. All items return to the vault at the end of the cycle), you are capable of having more than one item. You cannot have duplicates of the same item however and you still can only purchase one item per cycle. If there are more people purchasing an item than there are items, then the decision for who gets an item will be decided randomly. For example:

 

The Quartermaster dies and Person A purchases a Grappling Hook. Until Person A uses that Grappling Hook, Person A cannot purchase another. They can, on the other hand, purchase a Buckler or a set of Loaded Dice during the next cycle. During the next cycle, 3 people decide to purchase a Grappling Hook. Since there are only 2 Grappling Hooks left, it will be randomly decided who out of those 3 receives a Grappling Hook. 

 

Concerning Order of Actions: 

• Grappling Hook
• Votes Tallied
• Coins Received
• Bidding/Gambling/Use an Item
• Kills
• Receive Items

If I have missed anything, please let me know and I'll update it. 

 

And finally, a current vote tally. 

 

Jene- lll (Mai, Kai, Riitiidiikiir)

Jain- l (Ratel)

Luka- l (Jeno)

Riitiidiikiir- l (Jene)

Matim- l (Wyrm)

Hreo- l (Jatae)

Jeno- l (Riingar)

Kal FangShi- l (Jain)

Jatae- l (Hreo)

Wyrm- l (Matim)

Aonar- (Kal FangShi)

No Votes: Aonar, Luka

Edited July 8, 2014 by Metacognition

[Kasimir he/him]

And the Supreme Lynchmaster is back in action! Alright, sorry for doubting you.

 

Anyway, I have to head off for a meeting now, so I'd just toss in:

 

Jatae: At the time I had posted, the state of the votes included a 2-2-2 tie. What I meant was to say that I felt the state of the votes at that point was adequate to make a Captain lynch unlikely (though not impossible). This changed when the votes shifted later and I updated my tally to reflect that. I was not suggesting we should specifically and especially aim for a 2-2-2 tie.

 

Hreo: Agreed. I admit that 3-3 would be safer than 2-2. I honestly just suggested 2-2 on the assumption that mobilising 3 Mutineers with only one PM each was going to be tricky (and that us mobilising to ensure the votes stay 3-3 or to band for a 4 margin was also going to be as problematic), but you're right to say that 3-3 or a 4 vote margin would be a safer threshold. (Although I'm not sure this would be the case from tomorrow onwards as I suspect a Mutineer strategy would be to get hold of those grappling hooks.) 

[Aonar he/him]

I'm not sure that this tied voting is really a good thing. I don't have any solid info yet, but a tie will not help us here. It'll help us even less than it would in a full-size game. We're dead in five days. We don't have any roles we need to protect. If we stall here, we learn less, and we gain nothing from it. We aren't protecting potentially useful roles, and we still die at the end of Week Five. If we make a lynch vote here, whether it's a mis-lynch or not, we gain the initiative.

 

...I also really don't want to throw a last-minute lynch vote for Jene, because then everybody would probably kill me.

 

And it seems I won't have to. Thanks Newan. So, let's go with... Ratel, just because no one's voted for you yet.

Edited July 7, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[luckat she/her]

Luka hadn't meant to fall asleep, honest, she just had been really tired after her last few adventures. She was a bit disoriented at the crazy accusations all around her. Someone had even accused her! How was she supposed to be planning mutiny while she was asleep?


I'm sorry I haven't been active. I've been having internet issues, and I'm on my phone. I did say that I might not be on for the first day or so. I'm probably also not going to be very active tomorrow, but after that I should be. I haven't had time to analyze anything yet, and don't really want to try for a tie or anything, so I'll just vote for Mai to get the coin since he doesn't have a vote on him.

[Metacognition he/him]

Week 2- The Doldrums

After a few days without pursuit, the Crew began to relax. It seemed that their last haul would become another missing vessel amongst the many they had taken over the years.

But with the fear of pursuit behind them, they soon realized that they had another problem ahead of them; that of finding those “Brethren” that Paan had mentioned.

Pirates tend not to be the most trusting of folk in the first place and now, with actual reason for their distrust, the entire Crew began looking sideways at each other. They began to distrust each other so much, that even their 3rd favorite past time, gambling (the first being pirating and the second being drinking) ground to a halt. But nothing came of all this distrust at first. It wasn’t until their 3rd night out that they realized just how serious their situation had become….
 

----------------------------

Aonar wasn’t taking well to the pirate life. Try as he might, he was a scholar, not a sailor and he still wasn’t sure which side the other crewmembers were talking about when they called for port or starboard. The Crew, realizing that he was out of his league, typically gave him the easiest (but also the dirtiest) jobs they could think of. Everything from scrubbing the decks, to mucking out the bilge.

Perhaps that was why he spent so much time trapped in his books. If he couldn’t be helpful in one way, he would try to be helpful in another. The few books he had in his possession probably wouldn’t do them any good (one was on the husbandry and cultivation methods of the Dula, which he didn’t think they’d be raising many crops or animals out here in the middle of the ocean), but he still poured over them in case one of them might reveal something worthwhile.

Or perhaps it was his way of trying to escape into another world; one where Captains didn’t cut down members of his crew. Just the memory of Paan’s death still caused him to shiver sometimes.

On their third night out, the Crew relented a bit and gave Aonar Lookout duty throughout the night. This suited Aonar just fine, as it gave him time to read and so with a lantern at his side, he sat crosslegged at the bow of the AonTeo, diving into the book on his lap in a mad hope to regain some of the comfort and stability he had when he was still in school.

It wasn’t until a Shadow fell across the pages that he realized that he wasn’t alone on deck. He looked up to see who else would be up at this hour, but all that did was expose his throat. The Shadow drew a cutlass across Aonar’s throat.

As Aonar tried to gasp in pain and shock, he surprised himself in recognizing that cutlass. It had been Paan’s. Aonar slumped forward, looking as he had a moment before, but when the Shadow retreated, the pages were covered in blood.
 

---------------------------------------

When the Crew awoke the next day to find Aonar’s body, all the distrust boiled to the surface. It didn’t take long for them to start accusing each other the grisly deed. They argued themselves in circles and then back around again. Eventually, they decided that Jene, Crushthroat’s 1st Mate must have had something to do with it. After all, if Captain Crushthroat falls, then who would be next in line?

As pirates are not much for ceremony, the second that it seemed enough of the Crew agreed, someone drew their sword and tried to slice Jene’s throat.

Jene hadn’t become 1st Mate for his slow reflexes, nor for his weakness to pain. At the blade whistled through the air, Jene used his arm as a shield and caught the blade on his bone. As everyone stood by stunned, Jene reached back with his other hand and punched the sailor smack-dab in the middle of his face.

As the sailor crumpled to the ground, Jene pulled the sword out of his still bleeding arm and glared at the rest of the Crew.

“Anyone else want a shot?”

Everyone seemed to have had enough for one day and slowly backed away.

As Jene went to get some supplies and to be stitched up by Matim, the Crew went to return to their work. It was then that they finally noticed that somewhere during their debate that the winds had stopped. They had no way of moving anywhere.

There were more than a few curses, as they realized that they must have sailed directly into the Doldrums and were now adrift. They were at the mercies of the sea on one end and hatred of the Mutineers on the other.

….In other words, they were feeling very, very unlucky.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Thus ends Week 1! You now have 24 hours before the end of Week 2. Sorry for the length. This one kind of got away from me, so here’s hoping it’s at least worth it!

- Aonar was a good and loyal Powder Monkey, even if his time on the AonTeo was short.
- Jene was injured but not killed!

Jene- lll (Mai, Kai, Riitiidiikiir)
Jain- l (Ratel)
Luka- l (Jeno)
Riitiidiikiir- l (Jene)
Matim- l (Wyrm)
Hreo- l (Jatae)
Jeno- l (Riingar)
Kal FangShi- l (Jain)
Jatae- l (Hreo)
Wyrm- l (Matim)
Aonar- l (Kal FangShi)
Ratel- l (Aonar)
Mai- l (Luka)

Edited June 15, 2016 by Alvron

[Peng the Just he/him]

"Rag domi!" Jene swore as he wondered off to his room to nurse his wounds "Dolokin fools wouldn't know a mutineer if one hit them on the head" 

'dolokin' was a curse he had picked up from a dula farmer friend of his a few years back. Good man. Had an elantrian father.

I guess I had better  explain why i voted how I did, before I get lynched again. 

1.) i felt like new one was hiding guilt behind a guise of role-play

2.) I wanted my coins, so I had to vote for somebody.

I feel like i was attacked because i was honest about not having any evidence, while everyone else pretended to have evidence where there was none. If someone comes up with a good reason to vote for someone, I'll listen, but nothing so far has convinced me.

edit: blue

Edited July 7, 2014 by jasonpenguin

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I have a question, Jene. Are you a Gunner or did you get a Buckler? How did you survive a hit? It shouldn't matter to you if you reveal it, because either way, it won't protect you any more.

Mai felt ashamed, but not too ashamed. He had started the votes for Jene, and he had been attacked for it, but Jene hadn't died and so the Crew couldn't tell how loyal Jene actually was. He wondered how the first mate had survived that blow.

Question: Does anyone know how to pronounce Aons correctly? Is the ii sound like ee or aye?

Edited July 7, 2014 by Mailliw73

[Herowannabe he/him]

It just so happened that Hreo was the first one up in the morning- not because he was normally an early riser, but because when someone fills your hammock with itch-beetles it makes is blasted hard to sleep. Who had held on to THAT many of the cursed little bugs for all this time, anyway? Because Hreo was up so early, he was the one to discover Aonar's body.

The death saddened him- Aonar had often been given the same tasks Hreo was- mucking out the bilge and scrubbing decks and all that- so they had often spent time working side by side. Now, Aonar hadn't been any kinder to Hreo than any of the other pirates, but still. Hreo would miss the Salty Dog.

Actually it's more that Aonar has been one of my biggest scheming and plotting companions during the last two games I played. It will be weird not having him around for this one. :\

As for voting, I still don't have much more to go off of than I did 8 hours ago, so for now I'll vote for Jatae again, but only because he implied he would retract his vote for me and then never did.

[Peng the Just he/him]

1st off I was a gunner, to satiate your curiosity

 

Question: Does anyone know how to pronounce Aons correctly? Is the ii sound like ee or aye?

I have the audiobook. the ii sound is saying the letter 'i' twice in a row. for example, duke telrii's name is pronounced tell-rye-aye.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

So we have two proclaimed Gunners. I doubt there are more than three at the Max with how many players there are and at least one is a Mutineer is my guess. So now, which of the two is it?

Edited July 7, 2014 by Mailliw73

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Heh, look at how many people were voted on Day 1. 

 

Jain was quite surprised by Jene's little trick. That had got to hurt, especially since the blade had hit the bone. He wasn't going to be able to use that hand for quite some time. Some time being a good fortnight at least.

 

Jain frowned. His toy panda had disappeared since that sailor Ratel had thrown it onto the deck. Turning around, he wasn't surprised to see that the toy had somehow managed to set itself up in a good position half way up the ship's mast to watch the lynch attempt.

 

Sorry, Ralv, but disrespect the panda and bad luck comes for you. No hard feelings   

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Since I'm 90% sure the other proclaimed gunner is good, I'm voting for Jene again.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

It was a shame about that Aonar guy, really. Oh, he couldn't hold an Aon Ashe to Wyrm's own scholarly knowledge*, educated in Elantris as he was and called upon by kings all over to advise them, but it was nice to have another man of learning aboard, even if it didn't last. Still, it proved that these Mutineers were a bit more dangerous than he expected. It had taken them a long time to make that move, and he would have forgotten about it if it wasn't for everyone talking about it constantly. It was the equivalent of pirate gossip, he mused.

 

*No offence meant, Aonar, it's the character, not me >>

 

Since I'm 90% sure the other proclaimed gunner is good, I'm voting for Jene again.

 

I would be hesitant to vote with just that logic, since we have no idea how many Gunners are in the game (though it is likely to be low), nor can we say for sure that the Mutineers have one alongside them and that Jene and Kai aren't both loyal crewmen. You're also assuming that Kai didn't lie about his Gunner-ness or make a mistake in how he worded his question. It doesn't seem like a mistake, I agree, but I'm not sure anyone would just say that outright so early on. Though it could certainly have been a slip of the tongue/keyboard.

 

As for my own vote though, I'm not quite sure yet. We haven't really confirmed any information since Jene turned out to be not dead, other than Aonar's innocence. Kal claimed that Aonar was playing aggressively, and that certainly could be what killed him this game. Having said that, I'm going to place my vote for Kal for now because he's logged on today but not replied, and because of the fact that he is somewhat suspicious, as New One's lovely chart demonstrates (and I'm not just saying that because I'm Valiant! ).

Edited July 7, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Kasimir he/him]

They buried Aonar at sea, a week after Paan.

Kai mended rips in cloth, cursing as he stuck himself with the needle a couple of times. His heart wasn't in it. He'd kind of liked Aonar; for all the scholar had been as awkward as a fish out of water on board the AonTeo, he'd been their fish. Last week, as they spoke in between tasks, trying to figure out who Paan's compatriots could've been, he'd been reassured that they were, at least, both on the same side, something that he couldn't quite say for everyone else on the ship.

Aonar'd seemed like he'd gotten a good handle on what was going on. Kai's head was still spinning. It wasn't his first berth, but it was the first time he'd been caught in the middle of an impending mutiny and he didn't like that at all.

"What should I do, 'Rii?" he asked, setting aside both sailcloth and needle.

The ferret squeaked, pouncing on the partly stitched-up rip in the sailcloth. "I know," Kai said, ruefully. Narii was right; not much, at least, until he'd finished with the sailcloth. But until then, he would watch, and keep his ears open. And think: very, very hard.

Storm it, they got Aonar :/ Oh, well. Clock's ticking, gentlemen (and gentlewomen). Let's get down to this.

Agenda:
1. Information
2. Strategy for this Cycle

With regard to 1.: this will be just be off the top of my head. I haven't really had (and won't really have) the time to sit down and analyse things properly until I'm done with some emails. So I will reserve the right to decide, later, that I've been pretty silly with some of these thoughts

My initial impulse is to read Aonar's death as someone taking down an experienced player who was arguing for active discussion, rather than because of who Aonar was voting for. (He voted for Mai, but later retracted that vote; he didn't really suspect Mai either, just wanted to fish for information. He did vote for Ratel, but it was rather late into the cycle, which makes me doubt he was killed because he'd gotten lucky.)

Now, while I'm still thinking about what to make of what happened with Jene, I'll say this on my part, as one of the three people who placed a vote for Jene: as I believe I mentioned earlier (perhaps not so clearly), I voted for Jene because I felt it was being disingenuous to suggest, right after Riitiidiikiir had defended himself, that he was our best bet at that point. I had hoped that lighting his name in red would enable Jene to be more forthcoming about his reasons for believing that despite the general paucity of evidence for suspicions across the board (as he had said), there was something in particular that highlighted Riitiidiikiir to his attention as "our best bet". As he has, in fact, kindly provided them a cycle later, I am not (at least not immediately) inclined to press the matter.

I'm just as concerned about 2., however. If I'm reading Meta's write-up correctly, it seems barely anyone chose to gamble last cycle. Which means that we were either saving our coins or, (far more likely), bidding for items. In particular, while the items could not have been used or come into play last cycle, this is not true this time around. There is a maximum of three grappling hooks in stock, which can be mobilised.

While planning for the worst would have us wargaming on the assumption the Mutineers possess all three grappling hooks, I do not think this is likely the case. Here is why:

1. They might want to save up for the minimum bid for the axe. (Read: invest in loaded dice.) This enables them to make more than one kill. However, this also assumes that they believe they have a decent chance of killing the QM. Given they have to kill about 8 (11:4) or 10 (12:3) of us, and that there's just one QM in the game, I'd say it looks like they have decent chances of hitting the QM somewhere in there. (But maths is not my strong suit, and this is assuming some idealisations.)

2. As in 1.; how organised they are is an open question. Like as not, they have different opinions about how they want to strategise and play this game. In which case, I don't think we should expect a concerted effort to use grappling hooks, much less a concerted attempt to slip in a Captain lynch early. (Nonetheless, given the dire consequences, we should probably plan to block such an opportunity from arising.) In addition, this means that unless they're very sure they all have grappling hooks, can pull a late shock on us--trying to rush a lynch on the Captain at the last minute is going to be highly risky for them.

Therefore, my recommendation:
As mentioned last cycle, a 4 vote minimum for a lynch would probably give us a decent amount of certainty, excluding grappling hook action, that a Captain lynch won't slip past us. However, with regard to eliminating nasty surprises, I think a further margin of 2 (3, if one wants to be safe) between our lynch and where the other votes are going is probably something best factored in, just in case. But here's the problem: this ends up with us choosing/creating bandwagons on purpose. That throws some sand over our ability to figure out who's just hopping onto bandwagons and who is doing so to make sure there's no swing (which would allow a different lynch or a Captain lynch to come through.) So at the moment, I'm a bit divided about whether that would be a good idea :/
 
Edit: Fixed one typo 'not inclined to press the matter'. D'oh. This is what happens when you type on three hours of sleep...

booj oog oog, booj oog oog, surlaW eht ma I, namggE eht ma I!

Edited July 7, 2014 by Kasimir

[Renegade he/him]

Arrr, this be an unfortunate way ta end this first week.  Them dastardly Mutineers, goin’ fer a helpless scholar?  Ye should be ashamed of yerselves.

 

One thing I be needin’ to address ‘fore we set sail: I really don’t like that people be votin’ fer others, just because nobody else has voted fer that person.  I can’t deny that getting loot fer yer vote is important, but puttin’ the lynch towards someone who ye don’t actually suspect be more of a copout than anything else.  We glean almost no knowledge if ye vote fer someone who ye don’t believe be suspicious.  I do realize that many o' ye are doin’ this to avoid suspicion yerselves, but, in the grand scheme o’ things, votin’ fer the booty ain’t nearly as helpful as votin’ fer the information you can get from it.  All of yer thoughts are important, so don’t be afraid to voice them.  The more opinions we have, the bett’r.  And this ain't a rant, more of a suggestion to the rest o’ ye.

 

Now, onto yonder speculations.  I be thinkin’ of commentin’ on the information I think I’ve gleaned ‘bout some of the most suspicious characters ‘round here.  An’ the first o’ these be Jene.  I be findin’ it strange that he only decided to defend himself after the lynch went through.  Certainly, if I be a Gunner an’ I had a second chance at livin’, I’d at least try to protect me first life.  An’ also, I don’ exactly agree wit’ Jene’s assessment that thar be no info ‘round this ship.  Maybe not exactly incriminating evidence, aye, but worth considerin’ anyway.

 

Me second suspect be Jain.  I do agree wit’ Riiakwdioansoda that he be havin’ a… frivolous… style o’ play, which makes it diff’cult to tell whether he be serious or not when he’s talkin’.  In that case, we’d have trouble tellin’ if he be a Mutineer or not.  Which be inherently makin’ me suspicious.

 

Kal is ‘nother suspect that be brought up, but I be more unsure 'bout him as the two above.  I do find it very suspicious that he persisted in votin' fer Aonar after Aonar explained his actions.  But at the same time, I wonder if the Mutineers be tryin’ to incriminate Kal, the only person to vote Aonar, by killin’ Aonar last week.  Then again, I could be completely off-ship here.

 

Jeno still be a little bit suspicious fer me, but not as much as yesterday.  I’m not sure how I be feelin’ ‘bout his vote yesterday, which be basically ta vote fer the last inactive who hadn’t been voted fer, which I explained that I ain't in agreement wit' above.

 

Right now, I be on the fence mast as to who to lynch.  But it still be early in th’ week, so I’ll be comin’ back sometime laterrrrr.

 

Also, I did actually gamble last cycle, not so much for the money, but more for the information.  I didn’t win (but I didn’t purchase the Loaded Dice, either), so it means that at least one other player gambled yesterday.  I don’t know how useful this information is, but it’s information nonetheless.

 

EDIT: (I meant to add this in earlier. Oops.)  As for lynch votes, I would say that consolidating the votes against a few people is a good idea, as it decreases what I've explained above, while also bringing up the number of votes for the Mutineers to surpass. Hopefully, it'll stop any bandwagons, but there's really no way to tell.  At the very least, going for a tie-vote now is a very bad idea.  It basically gives whoever has the Grappling Hook complete control over the vote.  A one-point lead can go either way; we can get a lynch, or the Grappling Hook can turn it into a tie.  If it is a tie, it's not the end of the world; we may learn a thing or two about the Grappling Hook user's motives.  However, I would maintain that, ideally, we'd want at least a two-point lead on the person we're lynching.  But if that (for whatever reason) is not possible, we can settle for a one-point lead.

Edited July 7, 2014 by Renegade

[Herowannabe he/him]

in response to Kasimir:

I'm on my phone so it's difficult for me to check, but I'm pretty sure there is only one of each item available per day while the Quartermaster lives. Thus there is only one grappling hook we have to worry about today.

However this

1. They might want to save up for the minimum bid for the axe.

is a good point and very worrisome (and has bumped you up a little on my list of people I'm willing to trust). I hope there are at least a few of us who are doing the same so that we can block them if/when that time comes. Edited July 7, 2014 by Herowannabe