Magic and magictec vs Technology

[bmcclure7]

One side has end of ww2 level of technology (including atom bomb) 

The other has ancient and modern fabrils, a full order of knights Randiance, both god metals and anti investure weapons, 

Who wins? 

 

Location roshar

Edited April 22, 2023 by bmcclure7

[therunner he/him]

7 hours ago, bmcclure7 said:

One side has end of ww2 level of technology (including atom bomb) 

The other has ancient and modern fabrils, a full order of knights Randiance, both god metals and anti investure weapons, 

Who wins? 

 

Location roshar

Roshar. On Roshar they don't have to worry about Stormlight, they can get it on-demand, so the only limitation of them falls away.

Roshar has discovered anti-Investiture weapons (which are anti-matter weapons), and with some RnD they can scale those up, so soon they will have atom bomb equivalent, and they can easily make more. (though they would probably defeat WW2 side faster than that would happen).

Thanks to Fused, Roshar has immortal soldiers, though only some are sane enough to fight (maybe Kaladin could get few more to shape with his therapy powers).

Roshar can heal radiation poisoning trivially, and WW2 side has limited number (I am assuming they have ~10 atom bombs at most, and relatively small scale at that), and can deliver them only by air.

However, Windrunners + Skybreakers are more maneuverable than WW2 planes (and far more than bombers), so Roshar has air superiority.

Roshar can trivially sabotage any weapons system, or manufacting facility of WW2 side, or poison food supplies (soulcasting from CR, which is easier to do even).
Drop one Windrunner in plate in the middle of a camp, and he will destroy every piece of equipment there and take next to no damage (Shardplate would resist bullets well per WoB).

Bullets are useless against any team containing at least one Windrunner, since they can infuse some hunk of rock/metal with Reverse Lashing, and then just put that a bit to the side, and all the gunfire will go to that.

Roshar has mobility advantage (Oathgates), and has infrastructure (which WW2 side does not, no oil to fuel them or supply lines for munition).

WW2 side has no protection against fabrial weapons, or Shards, or Surgebindings. Munition/weapons/fuel will be soulcasted away, and replacing it takes a long time.
You cannot shield against fabrials that draw blood away from your body, or those that cause so much pain you get paralyzed.

Edit: I would also note that Roshar is not as far behind as some think. The predominant culture (and focus on magi-tech vs real world tech) obfuscates it, but they are technologically only very little behind Era 2 Scadrial, just developing in different direction shaped by available resources.

Their medicinal science is late 19th at least with some areas possibly more advanced.
Their physical science is a mix of early 19th to early 20th century.

Their transportation is right on break of 19th and 20th centuries (lifts, flight, flying wheelchair) with car equivalent probably not too far behind (they have all the pieces available right now). Lack of fossil fuels meant that it took fabrial revolution to start developing anything in this area, and it took additional advancement with understanding of aluminum+Connection interaction that allowed it to move forward.

Communication technology is using principles more advanced then we have in 21st century, effectively having quantum connections, though using them only in telegraph equivalent with analogue of switchboard station, again late 19th century technology.

Thanks to Urithiru, they can study more advanced fabrials (such as air vent system, early 20th century; sliding doors, middle 20th century) to push their technology further.

Mining and manufacturing was distorted by presence of Soulcasting, so they had little incentive to research in that area.

Taken all together, they are comparable to civilization in late 19th/very early 20th century.

Edited April 23, 2023 by therunner

[bmcclure7]

1 hour ago, therunner said:

Roshar. On Roshar they don't have to worry about Stormlight, they can get it on-demand, so the only limitation of them falls away.

Roshar has discovered anti-Investiture weapons (which are anti-matter weapons), and with some RnD they can scale those up, so soon they will have atom bomb equivalent, and they can easily make more. (though they would probably defeat WW2 side faster than that would happen).

Thanks to Fused, Roshar has immortal soldiers, though only some are sane enough to fight (maybe Kaladin could get few more to shape with his therapy powers).

Roshar can heal radiation poisoning trivially, and WW2 side has limited number (I am assuming they have ~10 atom bombs at most, and relatively small scale at that), and can deliver them only by air.

However, Windrunners + Skybreakers are more maneuverable than WW2 planes (and far more than bombers), so Roshar has air superiority.

Roshar can trivially sabotage any weapons system, or manufacting facility of WW2 side, or poison food supplies (soulcasting from CR, which is easier to do even).
Drop one Windrunner in plate in the middle of a camp, and he will destroy every piece of equipment there and take next to no damage (Shardplate would resist bullets well per WoB).

Bullets are useless against any team containing at least one Windrunner, since they can infuse some hunk of rock/metal with Reverse Lashing, and then just put that a bit to the side, and all the gunfire will go to that.

Roshar has mobility advantage (Oathgates), and has infrastructure (which WW2 side does not, no oil to fuel them or supply lines for munition).

WW2 side has no protection against fabrial weapons, or Shards, or Surgebindings. Munition/weapons/fuel will be soulcasted away, and replacing it takes a long time.
You cannot shield against fabrials that draw blood away from your body, or those that cause so much pain you get paralyzed.

Edit: I would also note that Roshar is not as far behind as some think. The predominant culture (and focus on magi-tech vs real world tech) obfuscates it, but they are technologically only very little behind Era 2 Scadrial, just developing in different direction shaped by available resources.

Their medicinal science is late 19th at least with some areas possibly more advanced.
Their physical science is a mix of early 19th to early 20th century.

Their transportation is right on break of 19th and 20th centuries (lifts, flight, flying wheelchair) with car equivalent probably not too far behind (they have all the pieces available right now). Lack of fossil fuels meant that it took fabrial revolution to start developing anything in this area, and it took additional advancement with understanding of aluminum+Connection interaction that allowed it to move forward.

Communication technology is using principles more advanced then we have in 21st century, effectively having quantum connections, though using them only in telegraph equivalent with analogue of switchboard station, again late 19th century technology.

Thanks to Urithiru, they can study more advanced fabrials (such as air vent system, early 20th century; sliding doors, middle 20th century) to push their technology further.

Mining and manufacturing was distorted by presence of Soulcasting, so they had little incentive to research in that area.

Taken all together, they are comparable to civilization in late 19th/very early 20th century.

Dose the book ever give a top speed for a Windrunner? Curiously

[therunner he/him]

1 hour ago, bmcclure7 said:

Dose the book ever give a top speed for a Windrunner? Curiously

For casual travel when carrying non-Windrunners they move at ~300 mph (Rosharan miles) which is about 350 mph in earth miles. And this is only for travel, not combat, while carrying people who lack their control over wind/air.

We have also seen them outrun Highstorm near its peak power, which is moving at more than 400 mph (Rosharan), so ~460 mph earth miles.

And this is all prior to having Shardplate available, which goes in hand with better control over windspren, which can be utilized to create pressure corridors sufficient to stop Highstorm level winds as seen in RoW.

So speed wise Windrunners can go toe-to-toe with WW2 fighters, and most likely go beyond them especially with Plate. On top of that they are far smaller, and far more maneuverable. The only issue is lack of ranged weaponry, outside of carrying some small rocks/pieces of metal.

From WoBs we also know that Windrunners can potentially travel between planets, so their speeds can reach quite considerable heights.

Edited April 23, 2023 by therunner

[alder24]

11 hours ago, bmcclure7 said:

One side has end of ww2 level of technology (including atom bomb) 

The other has ancient and modern fabrils, a full order of knights Randiance, both god metals and anti investure weapons, 

Who wins? 

 

Location roshar

Hard to say.

Atomic bombs at the end of WW2, despite being very powerful, were still small, only ~20 kT (producing 200 m fireball radius, ~800 m heavy blast radius, ~1.3 km heavy radiation fallout radius - source nukemap) , and they could be only delivered to the object by a plane (only 1 type of plane was capable of doing that, B-29), which severely limits the amount of destruction they can make, not to mention accuracy. And there were only a few of them at the end of WW2 (only 3 were ready to be dropped at Japan, 2 of which were dropped with 12 more being prepared - numbers might be off, but the fact remains there were only few of them), no stockpile of bombs.

Roshar on the other hand has Anti-Investiture. I bet if they would take a greathshell gemheart, and fill it up fully with anti-Investiture, they would make a more powerful explosion than Fat Man bomb, and it could be delivered by a single Windrunner anywhere on Roshar. 

Moreover, accuracy of most explosives at that time was not that great. Artillery works with large batteries shelling a large field,  No WW2 tank was capable of accurate fire on the move, bombers, except for the dive bombers, were also inaccurate, only working well on the large carpet bombing campaigns. Then there are anti-tanks and anti-aircraft guns, also inaccurate. Naval guns were also inaccurate. The point is, all of that is not like modern precision guided missiles. Either you will miss a lot of time, or you need a large battery of guns to effectively shell a large piece of land/sea. And when you change atmospheric conditions, gravity, and planet’s size and curvature, then all calculations that artillerymen were using, are just useless for them now. But let’s assume they are as capable at firing guns on Roshar as on Earth, for simplicity. 

Many guns used in WW2 were not automatic rifles, they were semi-automatic or single shot rifles, with support of machine guns. WW2 weapons are far from modern fully automatic guns in the hands of every modern soldier. 

There was no GPS system, no navigation, no satellites etc. Earthlings on Roshar will have a hard time moving, as there is no good infrastructure (roads and bridges) not to mention Highstorms. 

The only thing that makes it so hard for me to decide is the sheer number of soldiers and equipment. The US had 8.2 million army personnel (or 12 million, I found both of these numbers) at its peak in march 1945, in total 16 million people served in the army - this includes active soldiers and non-combatant personnel (I think?). That’s a lot, far more than Roshar is capable of. The US produced around 50k M4 Sherman tanks alone (not to mention other types), with total losses of 7k of all tanks during the entire war. Moreover, the US had like 200k planes at its disposal during the end of the war (300k produced in total during the war, 200k were combat planes, 100k in total were lost), most of which were combat planes. At its peak, the US Navy was operating 7601 ships in August 1945, including 28 aircraft carriers. The US also produced around 200k artillery pieces in total during WW2. These numbers are just massive. And that's the US alone. If you include the USSR, Britain, France, Germany, Japan and all other countries fighting in the war, you would get ridiculous numbers in total. Incomparable to what Roshar can muster. 

Note here - aluminum was used on a massive scale in WW2. Most planes were made predominantly from aluminum. Surprisingly Earth would have better chances at fighting Roshar in the air then I thought at first. 

That brings me to the most important question. How is this conflict happening? Are you just teleporting the whole US country (or all Allies), with the whole production and manpower background to Roshar? Are you just slapping Roshar in the middle of the Pacific, or Earth's continents in all around Roshar continent? Or you just give Fused WW2 tech and hope for the best? Are we assuming a united Roshar but not a united Earth? Non are united? Both are? Are we assuming greater number of Radiants than what was shown in RoW? Are Poles involved, because if yes, then Roshar can start digging its own grave  

If it’s the first option, the US (or Allies) are teleported, or the Roshar continent is slapped in the middle of the Pacific or whatever, I will have to give it to the US/Allies, solely because of the sheer numbers. How many Radiants there are currently on Roshar at the end of RoW? 200-300? Low hundreds of Radiants alone with 2 on 4th Ideal (as Rosharan army stands no chance) vs 8 or 12 million US army with hundreds of thousands pieces of heavy equipment. Even if the US suffers heavy losses (and they will), Radiants just won't be able to defeat that force. Even including uniting Roshar, and counting Fused, there would be like 1000 Surgebinders. Not enough. And there is Soviet Union with 12 million active soldiers waiting to be involved on Roshar. Even taking into account maximum number of Radiants there can be, ~10000, maybe 15-20k with squires, I would still give it to Earth, but that would be a very hard fight. 

Second note - Earth will gain access to CR. They just need to capture Perpendicularity or one of the Oathgates, gain Honorblade or a willing Radiant (Dustbringers are fishy), and boom, they’re in Shadesmar, where they are vastly superior than any Radiant can be. Period. If Earth gets to CR, it becomes almost fully inaccessible to Radiants. No soulcasting from CR, using it to travel, spy etc. Radiants without a plate, blade and renewable Stormlight won’t be able to effectively fight in Shadesmar against modern guns, planes, tanks and ships, which all can be brought into CR with ease. 

Third note - Earth is good at copying technology. As soon as they get fabrials in their hand, and they will do it almost immediately, they will start producing their own fabrials on a massive scale. They can also bribe/interrogate a few Artifabrians to work for them, to show how this tech works.

But if you just give WW2 tech to one side of the current conflict on Roshar, like Fused, or create a new group from people on Roshar or something like that, then I give it to Roshar. Because they will not have those high numbers, they won’t have tens of thousands of tanks and airplanes. Not to mention their production would be faaaar smaller (if even existing at all). Earth wins only because of massively overwhelming numbers, without those numbers, Surgebinding is on the top. Giving just technology (even with some few pieces of equipment) to one side without ridiculous numbers won't win the war.

[Nogo]

13 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Note here - aluminum was used on a massive scale in WW2. Most planes were made predominantly from aluminum. Surprisingly Earth would have better chances at fighting Roshar in the air then I thought at first. 

^^^ HUGE!!!

I have noticed a constant throughout the Cosmere of aluminum being scarce.  I drink out of my aluminum can of monster this morning as I type... earth doesn't have this issue.  If the entire WW2 war machine aluminized (I made that up) that would change everything so much that my morning brain can't handle it.  Buuuut, I love this idea.  It's fun to tease out.

I agree with the analysis of the responses above for the most part. Radiant > Muggles (even with WW2 tech).  But Shardbearers can't hold ground.   Not across the mass of Roshar.  WW2 armies would run rampant wherever Radiants couldn't stem the tide.  Bullets vs spears... ew.  Also, numbers wise, WW2 earth armies were massively larger than Rosharian armies of the time.  Dalinar took 8k troops to the tower and that was every man he could muster (I believe they mentioned 4k more on patrol etc).  That makes 12k for Dalinar.  Let's assume 15k troops for each highprince for a total of 150k for all of Alethkar--the accepted most powerful country on Roshar.  That's NOTHING compared to WW2 numbers.  And the WW2 folks have machine guns and modern (WW2 modern--meaning long range indirect fire) artillery.

Roshar would not lose I don't think.  But I don't think they could win until the technology levels worked itself out a little bit.  

Lastly, Atomic weapons don't bother me at all.  End of WW2 is far from the "mutual destruction" levels of the cold war.  And a simple Radiant commando team would obliterate this stockpile superfast I am sure.  Even if it didn't and the WW2'ers managed to nuke some cities... whoopidy doooooo.  The blast wave is basically a high storm and Roshar has dealt with 99+ desolations where 9/10 of the world pop gets killed.  What's a random big boom in a random city compared to that?  

[bmcclure7]

8 hours ago, alder24 said:

Hard to say.

Atomic bombs at the end of WW2, despite being very powerful, were still small, only ~20 kT (producing 200 m fireball radius, ~800 m heavy blast radius, ~1.3 km heavy radiation fallout radius - source nukemap) , and they could be only delivered to the object by a plane (only 1 type of plane was capable of doing that, B-29), which severely limits the amount of destruction they can make, not to mention accuracy. And there were only a few of them at the end of WW2 (only 3 were ready to be dropped at Japan, 2 of which were dropped with 12 more being prepared - numbers might be off, but the fact remains there were only few of them), no stockpile of bombs.

Roshar on the other hand has Anti-Investiture. I bet if they would take a greathshell gemheart, and fill it up fully with anti-Investiture, they would make a more powerful explosion than Fat Man bomb, and it could be delivered by a single Windrunner anywhere on Roshar. 

Moreover, accuracy of most explosives at that time was not that great. Artillery works with large batteries shelling a large field,  No WW2 tank was capable of accurate fire on the move, bombers, except for the dive bombers, were also inaccurate, only working well on the large carpet bombing campaigns. Then there are anti-tanks and anti-aircraft guns, also inaccurate. Naval guns were also inaccurate. The point is, all of that is not like modern precision guided missiles. Either you will miss a lot of time, or you need a large battery of guns to effectively shell a large piece of land/sea. And when you change atmospheric conditions, gravity, and planet’s size and curvature, then all calculations that artillerymen were using, are just useless for them now. But let’s assume they are as capable at firing guns on Roshar as on Earth, for simplicity. 

Many guns used in WW2 were not automatic rifles, they were semi-automatic or single shot rifles, with support of machine guns. WW2 weapons are far from modern fully automatic guns in the hands of every modern soldier. 

There was no GPS system, no navigation, no satellites etc. Earthlings on Roshar will have a hard time moving, as there is no good infrastructure (roads and bridges) not to mention Highstorms. 

The only thing that makes it so hard for me to decide is the sheer number of soldiers and equipment. The US had 8.2 million army personnel (or 12 million, I found both of these numbers) at its peak in march 1945, in total 16 million people served in the army - this includes active soldiers and non-combatant personnel (I think?). That’s a lot, far more than Roshar is capable of. The US produced around 50k M4 Sherman tanks alone (not to mention other types), with total losses of 7k of all tanks during the entire war. Moreover, the US had like 200k planes at its disposal during the end of the war (300k produced in total during the war, 200k were combat planes, 100k in total were lost), most of which were combat planes. At its peak, the US Navy was operating 7601 ships in August 1945, including 28 aircraft carriers. The US also produced around 200k artillery pieces in total during WW2. These numbers are just massive. And that's the US alone. If you include the USSR, Britain, France, Germany, Japan and all other countries fighting in the war, you would get ridiculous numbers in total. Incomparable to what Roshar can muster. 

Note here - aluminum was used on a massive scale in WW2. Most planes were made predominantly from aluminum. Surprisingly Earth would have better chances at fighting Roshar in the air then I thought at first. 

That brings me to the most important question. How is this conflict happening? Are you just teleporting the whole US country (or all Allies), with the whole production and manpower background to Roshar? Are you just slapping Roshar in the middle of the Pacific, or Earth's continents in all around Roshar continent? Or you just give Fused WW2 tech and hope for the best? Are we assuming a united Roshar but not a united Earth? Non are united? Both are? Are we assuming greater number of Radiants than what was shown in RoW? Are Poles involved, because if yes, then Roshar can start digging its own grave  

If it’s the first option, the US (or Allies) are teleported, or the Roshar continent is slapped in the middle of the Pacific or whatever, I will have to give it to the US/Allies, solely because of the sheer numbers. How many Radiants there are currently on Roshar at the end of RoW? 200-300? Low hundreds of Radiants alone with 2 on 4th Ideal (as Rosharan army stands no chance) vs 8 or 12 million US army with hundreds of thousands pieces of heavy equipment. Even if the US suffers heavy losses (and they will), Radiants just won't be able to defeat that force. Even including uniting Roshar, and counting Fused, there would be like 1000 Surgebinders. Not enough. And there is Soviet Union with 12 million active soldiers waiting to be involved on Roshar. Even taking into account maximum number of Radiants there can be, ~10000, maybe 15-20k with squires, I would still give it to Earth, but that would be a very hard fight. 

Second note - Earth will gain access to CR. They just need to capture Perpendicularity or one of the Oathgates, gain Honorblade or a willing Radiant (Dustbringers are fishy), and boom, they’re in Shadesmar, where they are vastly superior than any Radiant can be. Period. If Earth gets to CR, it becomes almost fully inaccessible to Radiants. No soulcasting from CR, using it to travel, spy etc. Radiants without a plate, blade and renewable Stormlight won’t be able to effectively fight in Shadesmar against modern guns, planes, tanks and ships, which all can be brought into CR with ease. 

Third note - Earth is good at copying technology. As soon as they get fabrials in their hand, and they will do it almost immediately, they will start producing their own fabrials on a massive scale. They can also bribe/interrogate a few Artifabrians to work for them, to show how this tech works.

But if you just give WW2 tech to one side of the current conflict on Roshar, like Fused, or create a new group from people on Roshar or something like that, then I give it to Roshar. Because they will not have those high numbers, they won’t have tens of thousands of tanks and airplanes. Not to mention their production would be faaaar smaller (if even existing at all). Earth wins only because of massively overwhelming numbers, without those numbers, Surgebinding is on the top. Giving just technology (even with some few pieces of equipment) to one side without ridiculous numbers won't win the war.

 For simplicity's sake,  Assume shinavar went through a massive industrialization modernization and population increase  A few generations back. And Comparable to a modern state now.

 

 Assume also  has had several decades to completely  Fill up the knight's radiant.  And create more anti investure. 

 Odium's forces are either neutral or reluctantly Allied to the rest of roshar. 

 

 And ishar took the honor blades same as in our time line

Edited April 23, 2023 by bmcclure7

[bmcclure7]

7 hours ago, Nogo said:

^^^ HUGE!!!

I have noticed a constant throughout the Cosmere of aluminum being scarce.  I drink out of my aluminum can of monster this morning as I type... earth doesn't have this issue.  If the entire WW2 war machine aluminized (I made that up) that would change everything so much that my morning brain can't handle it.  Buuuut, I love this idea.  It's fun to tease out.

I agree with the analysis of the responses above for the most part. Radiant > Muggles (even with WW2 tech).  But Shardbearers can't hold ground.   Not across the mass of Roshar.  WW2 armies would run rampant wherever Radiants couldn't stem the tide.  Bullets vs spears... ew.  Also, numbers wise, WW2 earth armies were massively larger than Rosharian armies of the time.  Dalinar took 8k troops to the tower and that was every man he could muster (I believe they mentioned 4k more on patrol etc).  That makes 12k for Dalinar.  Let's assume 15k troops for each highprince for a total of 150k for all of Alethkar--the accepted most powerful country on Roshar.  That's NOTHING compared to WW2 numbers.  And the WW2 folks have machine guns and modern (WW2 modern--meaning long range indirect fire) artillery.

Roshar would not lose I don't think.  But I don't think they could win until the technology levels worked itself out a little bit.  

Lastly, Atomic weapons don't bother me at all.  End of WW2 is far from the "mutual destruction" levels of the cold war.  And a simple Radiant commando team would obliterate this stockpile superfast I am sure.  Even if it didn't and the WW2'ers managed to nuke some cities... whoopidy doooooo.  The blast wave is basically a high storm and Roshar has dealt with 99+ desolations where 9/10 of the world pop gets killed.  What's a random big boom in a random city compared to that?  

 Curious is anyone have any numbers on how aluminum performs as armor? 

[alder24]

37 minutes ago, bmcclure7 said:

 For simplicity's sake,  Assume shinavar went through a massive industrialization modernization and population increase  A few generations back. And Comparable to a modern state now.

Which modern (WW2) state? France? US? USSR? Switzerland? And because they're Shinovar, they have 7 Honorblades and access to the Shin's Oathgate? If it's the US or USSR - they would have very good chances of winning but with high casualties. If other countries than they would lose. If Switzerland, they would declare armed neutrality there would be no fighting.

37 minutes ago, bmcclure7 said:

 Assume also  has had several decades to completely  Fill up the knight's radiant.  And create more anti investure. 

Ok, I'm assuming that, because there were 2000 Honorspren during Recreance, and Windrunners were most numerous, that's why Radiant Spren from other orders are numbered at around 1000. So there would be 10000 Radiant without squires, in total between 15-20k.

 

33 minutes ago, bmcclure7 said:

 Curious is anyone have any numbers on how aluminum performs as armor? 

Worse than steel. Aluminum is like 2x weaker than steel, but because it's like 3x less dense than steel, it's strength-to-weight ratio is better, but this matters in construction, not in armor. For armor steel is better. Plus aluminum is more likely to bend and break than steel (because it's weaker). Plus because it's about penetration, the differences in density between an armor and a bullet matters a lot - more dense armor, harder to penetrate.

https://shieldcoart.com/blog/2017/12/1/aluminum-vs-stainless-steel-which-is-better-for-your-metal-sign

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_depth

But in case of invasion of Roshar it doesn't matter - there would be no tanks shooting, shells firing or bombs falling on that piece of armor, protection against penetration isn't then that important, but protection against Shardblade and Surges is, and Earth would quickly figure out that aluminum is special and would start producing tanks with aluminum armor (not whole armor likely, just an armor layer). The same with vehicles and ammunition.

But if it's Shinovar, then they already know aluminum is special. They should then produce all equipment from aluminum as a standard, to make them immune to Surges and Shardblade. If that's the case, they would win.

Edited April 23, 2023 by alder24

[bmcclure7]

42 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Which modern (WW2) state? France? US? USSR? Switzerland? And because they're Shinovar, they have 7 Honorblades and access to the Shin's Oathgate? If it's the US or USSR - they would have very good chances of winning but with high casualties. If other countries than they would lose. If Switzerland, they would declare armed neutrality there would be no fighting.

Ok, I'm assuming that, because there were 2000 Honorspren during Recreance, and Windrunners were most numerous, that's why Radiant Spren from other orders are numbered at around 1000. So there would be 10000 Radiant without squires, in total between 15-20k.

 

Worse than steel. Aluminum is like 2x weaker than steel, but because it's like 3x less dense than steel, it's strength-to-weight ratio is better, but this matters in construction, not in armor. For armor steel is better. Plus aluminum is more likely to bend and break than steel (because it's weaker). Plus because it's about penetration, the differences in density between an armor and a bullet matters a lot - more dense armor, harder to penetrate.

https://shieldcoart.com/blog/2017/12/1/aluminum-vs-stainless-steel-which-is-better-for-your-metal-sign

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_depth

But in case of invasion of Roshar it doesn't matter - there would be no tanks shooting, shells firing or bombs falling on that piece of armor, protection against penetration isn't then that important, but protection against Shardblade and Surges is, and Earth would quickly figure out that aluminum is special and would start producing tanks with aluminum armor (not whole armor likely, just an armor layer). The same with vehicles and ammunition.

But if it's Shinovar, then they already know aluminum is special. They should then produce all equipment from aluminum as a standard, to make them immune to Surges and Shardblade. If that's the case, they would win.

1.  ishar took rest the honor blades with him a few decades back. 

2.  Shinivar is pretty big.   And that has had large enough population in the past to conquer a large portion of Roshar.   So I would say at least USSR. If not USA. 

 Does anyone have the exact numbers on the size of shinivar?

[therunner he/him]

19 hours ago, alder24 said:

Note here - aluminum was used on a massive scale in WW2. Most planes were made predominantly from aluminum. Surprisingly Earth would have better chances at fighting Roshar in the air then I thought at first.

Not pure aluminum, pure aluminum would be worthless for planes.
Planes were made from alloy, and those don't necessarily share Investiture resistant properties, only some do.

19 hours ago, alder24 said:

 Second note - Earth will gain access to CR. They just need to capture Perpendicularity or one of the Oathgates, gain Honorblade or a willing Radiant (Dustbringers are fishy), and boom, they’re in Shadesmar, where they are vastly superior than any Radiant can be. Period. If Earth gets to CR, it becomes almost fully inaccessible to Radiants. No soulcasting from CR, using it to travel, spy etc. Radiants without a plate, blade and renewable Stormlight won’t be able to effectively fight in Shadesmar against modern guns, planes, tanks and ships, which all can be brought into CR with ease.

The only way they could have access to CR is Honorblade, or Radiant, though Oathgates. Asumming Radiant joins WW2 side is against the setup I would say (if anything Rosharan side would have easier time bribing WW2 side, just sneak in Lightweaver who will soulcast gold bribes on demand). Windrunner in plate with machine gun anyone?

And you forget that Sibling (and Stormfather) can simply ask Oathgates spren to lockthemselves, so Oathgates are no go.

And Perpendicularities are inaccessibly, one is moving possibly in Hurricane, the other is inside lake. And they are not large enough to fit vehicles/planes.

So no, CR will remain domain of Rosharan side.

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Third note - Earth is good at copying technology. As soon as they get fabrials in their hand, and they will do it almost immediately, they will start producing their own fabrials on a massive scale. They can also bribe/interrogate a few Artifabrians to work for them, to show how this tech works.

So is Roshar, and they can spy and bribe far easier than WW2 side.

11 hours ago, alder24 said:

Ok, I'm assuming that, because there were 2000 Honorspren during Recreance, and Windrunners were most numerous, that's why Radiant Spren from other orders are numbered at around 1000. So there would be 10000 Radiant without squires, in total between 15-20k.

If there are 2000 full Windrunners, then there would be at minimum 10000 Windrunner squires alone, they have squire resonance with most having more then 5 squires (even Lightweavers have 3-5 squires). Most likely 2000 full Windrunner results in 15-20k squire Windrunners, so just Windrunners would be 17-22 thousand.

Full Stonewards were similarly numerous, but had less squires (Lightweavers have 3-5, so those can be a good estimate), so possibly 10k Stonewards.

So just these two orders give more than 25k Radiants, so total number can easily go over 50k Radiants.

And 2000 full Windrunners were during Recreance, since then both human and spren populations have exploded, so these numbers likely underestimate.

11 hours ago, alder24 said:

But in case of invasion of Roshar it doesn't matter - there would be no tanks shooting, shells firing or bombs falling on that piece of armor, protection against penetration isn't then that important, but protection against Shardblade and Surges is, and Earth would quickly figure out that aluminum is special and would start producing tanks with aluminum armor (not whole armor likely, just an armor layer). The same with vehicles and ammunition.

Pure aluminum completely sucks as armor, and while there would be no tanks shooting at it, lashed hunk of rock will do the trick against that.
Not to mention soulcasting/stoneshaping terrain under the tank/artillery, there aluminum will be no help at all.

Quote

But if it's Shinovar, then they already know aluminum is special. They should then produce all equipment from aluminum as a standard, to make them immune to Surges and Shardblade. If that's the case, they would win.

10 hours ago, bmcclure7 said:

1.  ishar took rest the honor blades with him a few decades back.

Without Oathgates for travel (which can be locked as mentioned above) they will have bad time getting all that equipment across the mountains + they will be incredibly sensitive to supply lines. Alethakr was the country with most soulcasters, so without those the Shin army will be utterly reliant on long supply lines for all munitions and gas.
And long supply lines don't work well with two regular Hurricane storms.

Edited April 24, 2023 by therunner

[Frustration]

On 4/23/2023 at 1:01 AM, therunner said:

Their transportation is right on break of 19th and 20th centuries (lifts, flight, flying wheelchair) with car equivalent probably not too far behind (they have all the pieces available right now). Lack of fossil fuels meant that it took fabrial revolution to start developing anything in this area, and it took additional advancement with understanding of aluminum+Connection interaction that allowed it to move forward.

Honestly I think this point is overlooked too often Roshar doesn't have fossil fuels, that means a lot of the things we think of as being advancements, cars and trains and what not, simply are not possible for them to make without aluminum.

To make aluminum cheeply you need electricity, to make electricity cheeply you need fossil fuels.

On 4/23/2023 at 7:21 AM, alder24 said:

not to mention Highstorms. 

I think that highstorms are the biggest factor here. Singers and Radiants can fight inside Highstorms, WW2 armies cannot.

Planes can't fly, tanks can't drive, human armies can't march, ships can't sail etc.

Not to mention how the incredibly rocky and uneven terrain, that is so difficult to move over that humans are faster than horses in most cases, I don't think tanks could even be effectively deployed.

17 hours ago, bmcclure7 said:

 For simplicity's sake,  Assume shinavar went through a massive industrialization modernization and population increase  A few generations back. And Comparable to a modern state now.

 

 Assume also  has had several decades to completely  Fill up the knight's radiant.  And create more anti investure. 

 Odium's forces are either neutral or reluctantly Allied to the rest of roshar. 

 

 And ishar took the honor blades same as in our time line

Well that makes things easy.

The Oathgate in Urithiru is locked, so they can't get there, the Misted Mountains prevent them from moving any heavy equipment out of Shinover in any way aside from boats, which will still be decimated by Highstoms, not to mention can easily be taken out by a single radiant.

On 4/23/2023 at 7:21 AM, alder24 said:

Second note - Earth will gain access to CR. They just need to capture Perpendicularity or one of the Oathgates, gain Honorblade or a willing Radiant (Dustbringers are fishy), and boom, they’re in Shadesmar, where they are vastly superior than any Radiant can be. Period. If Earth gets to CR, it becomes almost fully inaccessible to Radiants. No soulcasting from CR, using it to travel, spy etc. Radiants without a plate, blade and renewable Stormlight won’t be able to effectively fight in Shadesmar against modern guns, planes, tanks and ships, which all can be brought into CR with ease.

Soulcasting in the CR is easier than in the PR, one Elsecaller can turn the vast majority of them into smoke, or even just barricade them in.

Not to mention that they have no way to navigate the bead oceans.

[alder24]

17 hours ago, bmcclure7 said:

1.  ishar took rest the honor blades with him a few decades back. 

That means the only way for them to access CR is through Horneaters' perpendicularity.

17 hours ago, bmcclure7 said:

2.  Shinivar is pretty big.   And that has had large enough population in the past to conquer a large portion of Roshar.   So I would say at least USSR. If not USA. 

 Does anyone have the exact numbers on the size of shinivar?

Is it big? Whole Roshar has an area of 40 mil km2, comparable to the whole Asia 44.5 mil km2 - India 3.3 mil km2. That's the whole continent. Except for Aimia, Shinovar was the smallest from all Silver Kingdon, and today it is still one of the smallest countries. Alethkar has 7 mil km2 and looks at around 4x bigger than Shinovar, which would mean that Shinovar is comparable to Mexico or Indonesia which today have population comparable to WW2 US (140 mil) and USSR (170 mil), so I don't know now why I wrote this whole thing. Never mind then.

8 hours ago, therunner said:

Not pure aluminum, pure aluminum would be worthless for planes.
Planes were made from alloy, and those don't necessarily share Investiture resistant properties, only some do.

Well, I didn't know this. It is still possible to cover tanks (not planes, too heavy) with a protective aluminum layer, but I'm not arguing that this is what will happen.

8 hours ago, therunner said:

And you forget that Sibling (and Stormfather) can simply ask Oathgates spren to lockthemselves, so Oathgates are no go.

Yup, I forgot about that  Good point.

8 hours ago, therunner said:

And 2000 full Windrunners were during Recreance, since then both human and spren populations have exploded, so these numbers likely underestimate.

Since then, humans for sure have become more numerous but spren? I highly doubt so. Recreance was 2000 years ago, before that day, spren had at least 5000 years (from the day of the first desolation) or longer (from the arrival of Shards on Roshar) to go up in numbers until they reached 2000 Honorspren. 2000 Honorspren in more than 5000 years. If the Honorspren population growth after Recreance was like before it, then today there would be 800 Honorspren only. But it wasn't. Stormfather for centuries stopped creating new Honorspren, and when he did, he created only 10. There might be fewer than 800 Honorspren today, far less than you propose.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Honestly I think this point is overlooked too often Roshar doesn't have fossil fuels, that means a lot of the things we think of as being advancements, cars and trains and what not, simply are not possible for them to make without aluminum.

Roshar tech is impressive, yes, but in this case, we're looking at the military, and their military, tactics, battle order and equipment (almost no protective armor, I won’t stop pointing this out!) is predominantly in the 15th century. It does start to change now, with the introduction of the Bridge Four. Radiants alone operate on a different, hard to categorize level.

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Not to mention how the incredibly rocky and uneven terrain, that is so difficult to move over that humans are faster than horses in most cases, I don't think tanks could even be effectively deployed.

Rocky terrain might be more ideal for tanks than soil. Rocks means no mud, and this was a tank killed. Just ask Germans in 1941 - their Blitzkrieg was stopped by mud alone.

[Frustration]

5 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Rocky terrain might be more ideal for tanks than soil. Rocks means no mud, and this was a tank killed. Just ask Germans in 1941 - their Blitzkrieg was stopped by mud alone.

They still have crem, which is even worse as it will harden into stone given time.

[alder24]

1 minute ago, Frustration said:

They still have crem, which is even worse as it will harden into stone given time.

Not at all, it hardens, only fresh crem will cause problems, but that's only a few millimeters at best, not enough for a tank to sink into (once I calculated it based on Shattered Plains homes, which are covered up to 2nd floor, and I got less than a hair width of crem every Highstorm, or something like that, but let’s say 1 mm here), not enough to stop a tank. It won't even feel it. Because of the thak's sheer mass, it would crack hardened crem on its tracks and shake it off. And wet crem would also be shaken off the tank while it's moving. Crem is not a problem unless you leave a tank for a month or two unattended. 

[Frustration]

2 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Not at all, it hardens, only fresh crem will cause problems, but that's only a few millimeters at best, not enough for a tank to sink into (once I calculated it based on Shattered Plains homes, which are covered up to 2nd floor, and I got less than a hair width of crem every Highstorm, or something like that, but let’s say 1 mm here), not enough to stop a tank. It won't even feel it. Because of the thak's sheer mass, it would crack hardened crem on its tracks and shake it off. And wet crem would also be shaken off the tank while it's moving. Crem is not a problem unless you leave a tank for a month or two unattended. 

There's enough crem in each passing to form thick mud, at least according to the Coppermind in WoK chapter 60, but I'll take the time to read the chapter before I make any hard claims about it.

[therunner he/him]

4 hours ago, alder24 said:

Well, I didn't know this. It is still possible to cover tanks (not planes, too heavy) with a protective aluminum layer, but I'm not arguing that this is what will happen.

That would be possibility, though for Shinovar it would be dependant on what Soulcasters they have access to.
But proper alloy might be possibility as well, even if it will not protect as fully as pure aluminum.

Quote

Since then, humans for sure have become more numerous but spren? I highly doubt so. Recreance was 2000 years ago, before that day, spren had at least 5000 years (from the day of the first desolation) or longer (from the arrival of Shards on Roshar) to go up in numbers until they reached 2000 Honorspren. 2000 Honorspren in more than 5000 years. If the Honorspren population growth after Recreance was like before it, then today there would be 800 Honorspren only. But it wasn't. Stormfather for centuries stopped creating new Honorspren, and when he did, he created only 10. There might be fewer than 800 Honorspren today, far less than you propose.

I can't recall precise quote, but I think either in O or WoR, Pattern mentions that current spren population is larger than during Recreance.

Not 2000 Honorspren in 5000 years, only around 3000 (4500  to Aharietam, but Recreance is only 2500 after it). Also during those times Honor was alive, so presumably there was less Investiture. There is a WoB (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/186/#e4129) that spren serve as release valve for the power after Honor was splintered.

So, 2000 years would be sufficient to nearly replace the numbers anyway. There is enough Honorspren to fill the arena in Lasting Integrity at least twice over (on the second day of trial most of the audience is different, as those who would be sympatetic to Adolin are forbidden entry), and the arena can seat couple hundred, so the 800 is basically near minimum, and would require all Honorspren to attend.

And Honorspren waged war in Shadesar on the other Radiant spren, if there would be only 800 that would not be war, but barely a skirmish. So they must be relatively sizable on their own, and relative to other spren as well.
 

Quote

Rocky terrain might be more ideal for tanks than soil. Rocks means no mud, and this was a tank killed. Just ask Germans in 1941 - their Blitzkrieg was stopped by mud alone.

And Lightweavers can easily create mud through Soulcasting, while hidden by ilussion.
Or Stoneward/Willshaper can hide in hole they shaped, and render the rock liquid right under tanks.

Edited April 24, 2023 by therunner

[Frustration]

3 minutes ago, therunner said:

I can't recall precise quote, but I think either in O or WoR, Pattern mentions that current spren population is larger than during Recreance.

WoR page 888.

no clue what chapter

 

[bmcclure7]

6 hours ago, Frustration said:

Honestly I think this point is overlooked too often Roshar doesn't have fossil fuels, that means a lot of the things we think of as being advancements, cars and trains and what not, simply are not possible for them to make without aluminum.

To make aluminum cheeply you need electricity, to make electricity cheeply you need fossil fuels.

I think that highstorms are the biggest factor here. Singers and Radiants can fight inside Highstorms, WW2 armies cannot.

Planes can't fly, tanks can't drive, human armies can't march, ships can't sail etc.

Not to mention how the incredibly rocky and uneven terrain, that is so difficult to move over that humans are faster than horses in most cases, I don't think tanks could even be effectively deployed.

Well that makes things easy.

The Oathgate in Urithiru is locked, so they can't get there, the Misted Mountains prevent them from moving any heavy equipment out of Shinover in any way aside from boats, which will still be decimated by Highstoms, not to mention can easily be taken out by a single radiant.

Soulcasting in the CR is easier than in the PR, one Elsecaller can turn the vast majority of them into smoke, or even just barricade them in.

Not to mention that they have no way to navigate the bead oceans.

 I thought shinivar had fossil fuels because it  Is created to be based on Earth ( Or whatever the planet of humanity's origin in the cosmere)

[alder24]

6 minutes ago, therunner said:

That would be possibility, though for Shinovar it would be dependant on what Soulcasters they have access to.

We're assuming they have proper technology, and aluminum is minable, for now it might be too deep to reach, but with future tech why not

Spoiler

Questioner

So, I'm intrigued by aluminum, especially the fact that it can only be found by Soulcasting on Roshar. So, how was it discovered in the first place?

Brandon Sanderson

...Did I say you can only get it through Soulcasting?

Questioner

In the Shallan flashbacks, she has the pendant.

Brandon Sanderson

Don't take what she says at 100% truth.

Oathbringer release party (Nov. 13, 2017)

 

5 minutes ago, therunner said:

Not 2000 Honorspren in 5000 years, only around 3000 (4500  to Aharietam, but Recreance is only 2500 after it).

I was counting backwards. First Desolation was around 7000 years before WoK (but sapient spren existed before, likely as soon as Honor and Cultivation arrive, so around 10000 years before WoK), Recreance 2000 years, therefore 5000 years for spren population to grow before they were all killed.

10 minutes ago, therunner said:

There is a WoB (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/186/#e4129) that spren serve as release valve for the power after Honor was splintered.

The WoB suggests the number of spren, not creation of spren, serves as a release valve.

13 minutes ago, therunner said:

There is enough Honorspren to fill the arena in Lasting Integrity at least twice over (on the second day of trial most of the audience is different, as those who would be sympatetic to Adolin are forbidden entry).

The coppermind states that the Forum can fit a few hundred sprens sitting, not thousands of them. And "supporters" of Adolin were few compared to the opposition.

16 minutes ago, therunner said:

And Honorspren waged war in Shadesar, if there would be only 800 that would not be war, but barely a skirmish.

From a human perspective, not spren. Plus Honorspren are aided by Mistspren (on ship at least) if I remember correctly.

Just now, bmcclure7 said:

 I thought shinivar had fossil fuels because it  Is created to be based on Earth ( Or whatever the planet of humanity's origin in the cosmere)

No, there are no fossils on Roshar.

Spoiler

Questioner

I was wondering, are there dinosaurs on Ashyn? Or were there? Because there's chickens...

Brandon Sanderson

Right, right. There are reptiles. The Rosharan system is younger than some, but not as young as Scadrial. So I'll RAFO whether there were dinosaurs. On Roshar itself, there are no oil deposits caused by mass extinction events in the past.

FanX 2021 (Sept. 16, 2021)

 

[Frustration]

Just now, bmcclure7 said:

 I thought shinivar had fossil fuels because it  Is created to be based on Earth ( Or whatever the planet of humanity's origin in the cosmere)

No, it was just terraformed to be closer to Ashyn(note not Yollen, which was Humanity's first planet), but it wasn't created at that time, and would just be a superficial change, there aren't any plate tectonics there either.

[Kendelian he/him]

Radiants may be hard to kill, but they can’t outheal a nuke. Also, nuking Urithiru a couple of times could force a surrender. But if the Rosharians wouldn’t surrender, then i dont think WWII era tech would be enough to kill all of the Radiants, especially if the Fused were to get involved.

[Frustration]

1 minute ago, Kendelian said:

Radiants may be hard to kill, but they can’t outheal a nuke. Also, nuking Urithiru a couple of times could force a surrender. But if the Rosharians wouldn’t surrender, then i dont think WWII era tech would be enough to kill all of the Radiants, especially if the Fused were to get involved.

As a matter of fact they might well be able to, especially the much weaker pure fission nukes.

Shardplate would protect them from both the temperature and radiation, and would only be in real danger inside the heavy detonation range, and even then with sufficent stormlight they probably could survive, though they probably wouldn't be in any condition to fight .

And given the SA 5 sample chapters I think it's fair to say that Urithiru is unassailable.

[Kendelian he/him]

7 minutes ago, Frustration said:

As a matter of fact they might well be able to, especially the much weaker pure fission nukes.

Shardplate would protect them from both the temperature and radiation, and would only be in real danger inside the heavy detonation range, and even then with sufficent stormlight they probably could survive, though they probably wouldn't be in any condition to fight .

And given the SA 5 sample chapters I think it's fair to say that Urithiru is unassailable.

Good point, I neglected to consider those points.

[alder24]

5 minutes ago, Frustration said:

As a matter of fact they might well be able to, especially the much weaker pure fission nukes.

Shardplate would protect them from both the temperature and radiation, and would only be in real danger inside the heavy detonation range, and even then with sufficent stormlight they probably could survive, though they probably wouldn't be in any condition to fight .

The energy itself, in the close proximity to the explosion, would for sure destroy the plate in a split second, and vaporize Radiant inside. Plate can crack just by falling from too high, hammers, Kaladin jumping etc, this is all energy. Nuke has a lot more energy than what plate experiences normally. Even the WW2 nukes. Radiant just needs to be close enough to the epicenter to be dead.

10 minutes ago, Frustration said:

And given the SA 5 sample chapters I think it's fair to say that Urithiru is unassailable.

Is it? Yes, it's powerful, but the B-29 has a range of 32k feets and almost 6k miles. Dropping a few WW2 nukes would still do a lot to Urithiru. I might not destroy it fully, but will deal such an amount of damage that it will cripple the Tower and decimate Radiants. Not to mention there is a very high probability that the blast wave would shatter the crystal column of the Sibling, which might cause even greater damage.

Of course, the problem is to fly planes in the sky filled by Windrunners.