Araris Valerian he/him Posted August 25, 2022 Posted August 25, 2022 Just now, Luckspren said: Was this confirmed? I thought it was. Maybe not. If not, some rethinking should probably occur. Also, just to make sure, @The Unknown Novel, can there be more than one Shepherd?
Luckspren she/her Posted August 25, 2022 Posted August 25, 2022 @Matrim's Dice At this point, Araris and Devo really don't look e/e, and that makes Sart their teammate either way. Would you agree?
Mat he/him Posted August 25, 2022 Posted August 25, 2022 18 minutes ago, Luckspren said: @Matrim's Dice At this point, Araris and Devo really don't look e/e, and that makes Sart their teammate either way. Would you agree? That’s what I’ve been saying, yeah. But I’m worried it’s just a one person team and if we have a thunderdome here it might be worth exploring that. I haven’t decided. At the very least, I want to know where Sart votes. We can’t count on him not changing last minute though.
Mat he/him Posted August 25, 2022 Posted August 25, 2022 34 minutes ago, Luckspren said: What's a thunderdome? Not really what this is tbh Picture like two people in a domed arena, fighting it out, but in thread mafia game form. In this case Devo and Araris aren’t really talking to each other so it wasn’t a perfect time for that term but we do have a 1v1, kinda
Sart he/him Posted August 25, 2022 Posted August 25, 2022 Well, time for the final piece of information we need. I was weaveblocked last night. I weaveblocked Araris during the day, so it would be difficult for him to escape my block, send a PM to me, and then block me back. Not impossible, but certainly not likely. Devo is more likely at this point, from a purely mechanical standpoint.
Mat he/him Posted August 25, 2022 Posted August 25, 2022 55 minutes ago, Sart said: Well, time for the final piece of information we need. I was weaveblocked last night. I weaveblocked Araris during the day, so it would be difficult for him to escape my block, send a PM to me, and then block me back. Not impossible, but certainly not likely. Devo is more likely at this point, from a purely mechanical standpoint. Do you think we’re dealing with one or two elims?
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 25, 2022 Posted August 25, 2022 So Araris isn't solo, and his teammate is definitely Sart unless a weaveblocked player can break free and use other weaves on the same turn @The Unknown Novel. Either way, Araris is the biggest threat, so we should kill him first.
Sart he/him Posted August 25, 2022 Posted August 25, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said: Do you think we’re dealing with one or two elims? Well, I'm hoping for only one, because I'd prefer not to suspect my Warder, but if there is a second, it's got to be Luckspren at this point. I don't know what gave you such a strong village read on them, but that's the only scenario that makes much sense to me. There's no way that Araris and Devo are on the same team at this point, so that's ruled out. Technically, you could be playing the long con, but that seems overly convoluted at this point. Luck is clear of being the Forsaken, sure, but that doesn't mean they're village aligned. I haven't seen anything exonerating them. I'd much rather concentrate on the Forsaken though. Somebody had to weave block me, but no one's claiming it. I guess there's an off-chance it was Xino, but in that case, why Xino, why? If I was allowed to Weave, I could have blocked the kill, which the elims obviously didn't want. Xino should have also been able to block kills, so I don't know why he would weaveblock me instead of physically blocking me. Basically, Araris or Devo is the only one who could have blocked me, and it's easier for Devo. Assuming order of operations works to allow him to break out and shield me (I would definitely like a clarification on that), the odds of Araris succeeding are 40.5%. That's not as difficult as I would like, but it does make it less likely. However, Devo is claiming that their Harden Air action failed. There's only a 15% chance of that happening. It's dangerous relying on statistics like this, but that's a much shakier claim. Edited August 25, 2022 by Sart Typo
Araris Valerian he/him Posted August 25, 2022 Posted August 25, 2022 I don’t think Sart’s D3 or the kill on Xino make sense if he’s elim, and certainly not if he’s partnered with me. Why draw all that attention by opposing the Conquestor votes? And (if he’s partnered with me) why kill the only other person that voted Conq on D1? Also, like I said earlier, why would the elims have 2 players opposed a D1 vote on Illwei when it’s v/v? I’d jump on a chance to knock her out early, especially in a game with lots of PMs.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 25, 2022 Posted August 25, 2022 18 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: I don’t think Sart’s D3 or the kill on Xino make sense if he’s elim, and certainly not if he’s partnered with me. Why draw all that attention by opposing the Conquestor votes? And (if he’s partnered with me) why kill the only other person that voted Conq on D1? Also, like I said earlier, why would the elims have 2 players opposed a D1 vote on Illwei when it’s v/v? I’d jump on a chance to knock her out early, especially in a game with lots of PMs. Holding up Conq and Xino as villagers helps elim Sart when they flip village. I assume you killed Xino because you didn't want an Aes Sedai around who might side against you today. Mat and Luck can't weave and whatever you thought my role was you assumed it would be easier to exe me than Xino/were already worried about hitting my Shepard extra life. Why not? Your vote doesn't count so even before my vote it was 3 votes for Illwei 2 for Conq, so you'd be able to kill her while having two elims shown voting on Conq.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 It's Sart's fault that we are looking at the two of us this cycle. If he hadn't brought up the Forsaken thing, the POE would likely be wider today, and there'd be no reason for elim!me to force a 50-50 against you. Also, Sart didn't ever argue that Conq or Xino was village, so it doesn't make sense that he was trying to get village credit by doing so. He just said that if we are looking for a Forsaken, we should look at players without confirmed roles. As for the votes on Illwei, there's more going on there than just the votes. I made arguments for voting Conquestor, arguments that other players found convincing, and that potentially could have swung the vote. So in the theoretical world where I am the Forsaken, I was still making a concrete push for Conquestor and against Illwei, which I don't think makes sense. Basically, there is no reasonable world in which both Sart and I are elims, and honestly even if I was evil Sart comes out looking pretty good.
Mat he/him Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 27 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: It's Sart's fault that we are looking at the two of us this cycle. If he hadn't brought up the Forsaken thing, the POE would likely be wider today, and there'd be no reason for elim!me to force a 50-50 against you. Yeah, but that’s a flawed argument in that the same could be said about Sart/Devo being e/e. Unless you think the second is Luck. I’m becoming somewhat sympathetic towards it just being you or Devo and that’s it but I guess we’ll see
Araris Valerian he/him Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Yeah, but that’s a flawed argument in that the same could be said about Sart/Devo being e/e. Unless you think the second is Luck. I'm leaning toward just one. And v!Sart should be a point in my favor, given how his claims make e!Devo more probable. Forsaken/Blademaster is, as Sart pointed out, what Devo's suggestion of the elim team might be, and it seems reasonably strong, except of course that Vorros died D2.
Mat he/him Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: I'm leaning toward just one. And v!Sart should be a point in my favor, given how his claims make e!Devo more probable. Forsaken/Blademaster is, as Sart pointed out, what Devo's suggestion of the elim team might be, and it seems reasonably strong, except of course that Vorros died D2. Ok, that’s fair. I’ll give you that. Still gotta reread, but that’s a good point.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said: I’m becoming somewhat sympathetic towards it just being you or Devo and that’s it but I guess we’ll see It can't be solo Araris unless Xino Shielded Sart because he would have had to send a PM to Sart, Shield him, and kill Xino, which isn't possible for one person to do. The most likely explanation is that Araris and Sart are teammates, but being able to use weaves while weaveblocked would make other combinations possible.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 16 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: It can't be solo Araris unless Xino Shielded Sart because he would have had to send a PM to Sart, Shield him, and kill Xino, which isn't possible for one person to do. The most likely explanation is that Araris and Sart are teammates, but being able to use weaves while weaveblocked would make other combinations possible. I agree on the facts, but I hope that folks draw a different conclusion
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted August 26, 2022 Author Posted August 26, 2022 (edited) Less than fifteen minutes remaining! Get your votes and actions in! Nevermind. It ends tomorrow. Got my days mixed up. Edited August 26, 2022 by The Unknown Novel
Luckspren she/her Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 We're looking at one or two elims. If one, it's probably Devo, but could be Araris; if two, I'm thinking Araris and Sart. It makes the most sense to kill Araris. If they flip elim, kill Sart; if they flip village, that's affordable because it wasn't LYLO today after all, and then we kill Devo.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Luckspren said: We're looking at one or two elims. If one, it's probably Devo, but could be Araris; if two, I'm thinking Araris and Sart. It makes the most sense to kill Araris. If they flip elim, kill Sart; if they flip village, that's affordable because it wasn't LYLO today after all, and then we kill Devo. Why do you think I could be elim with Sart? I pointed out above that Sart is the reason that people are looking at me and Devo in the first place. Why would he create a POE with a 50% chance of killing off his only teammate? Also, in the 2 villagers versus 1 Forsaken scenario, the elims win, since 2 votes on the same person are required for an exe, and the Forsaken can just use Compulsion. So this is, in fact, LyLo, regardless of the number of elims.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 24 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Why do you think I could be elim with Sart? I pointed out above that Sart is the reason that people are looking at me and Devo in the first place. Why would he create a POE with a 50% chance of killing off his only teammate? Also, in the 2 villagers versus 1 Forsaken scenario, the elims win, since 2 votes on the same person are required for an exe, and the Forsaken can just use Compulsion. So this is, in fact, LyLo, regardless of the number of elims. What other choice did he have? There was no way he could have sold people on Mat or Luck as the Forsaken so he had to choose between me and Xino as a scapegoat and decided I would be easier because Xino action scanned Conq N2 and it didn't make sense for an elim to do that. At 3-2, even if we all vote against you, it's still a tie if you get Compulsion off, and you guarantee at least a tie by convincing either Mat or Luck. The number of required votes goes down to 1 if there are 4 or fewer players left, so 2-1 is a possible but not guaranteed loss.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: What other choice did he have? Just not talk about a Forsaken? Or not make the assumptions about every Aes Sedia having a Warder, or roleclaim himself. And thanks for the rule correction. @Luckspren, I would hope that the 50% loss chance if you are wrong about me would be enough to convince you to look at some of the argumentation. I’m also not sure why a Mat/Devo team doesn’t seem to have crossed your mind. Yeah, Mat has been pretty village aligned this game, but it’s at least another possibility that should lower your confidence that killing me today is 100% the safest thing to do. And Mat should likewise consider that a Luck/Devo team is possible. (I’m running on the assumption that y’all are both village, but Luck made me a bit less confident with her last post) Edited August 26, 2022 by Araris Valerian
Mat he/him Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 (edited) 20 hours ago, Sart said: I don't know what gave you such a strong village read on them, but that's the only scenario that makes much sense to me. This, specifically, there's no reason for e!Luck to bother writing such a long response to v!Conq here (or any response at all). Besides that, her entire D1 play (and the other turns, but D1 is a standout) is the most active/put together/high volume of any of her games, and she's never been elim before. So I'd be surprised if she was elim here. I think it's possible for sure, and I'd be really impressed, but it's not going to be where I look first. I don't think a Devo/Luck/Vorros team is probable if only because all three of them voted Illwei on D1, and I don't see how that makes any sense :P. Devo being on at the end of that cycle and being Forsaken checks out for the Conq train missing a vote (she was perfectly able to use Compulsion to cover her tracks) so that's something. I do agree with Luck saying that she doubted e!Araris just wouldn't cover his tracks at all though. I have no idea what to do with that, and Devo and Araris were on the same train every following exe. Here's what I said about v!Conq earlier: Quote In this world, I think it's difficult to nail down a team but I think only one of [Sart, xino] is elim and that 1-2 Illwei voters are elim, likely out of [Vorros, Devo]. I think it's notable how both Vorros and Devo show up as candidates in both worlds but I don't really know what to do with that info. And that still seems like it could be viable. It doesn't add any new info or anything though :P. I think in regards to the D1 VC, if there are two elims left, one is Sart. Otherwise that VC doesn't make any sense. If there are only one left, I think it being Devo works, or Araris. Mmm I'm gonna switch Devotary EDIT: Mmm I'm gonna switch back. Luck's right. Sart isn't e/e with Devotary from his posting today. Araris Edited August 26, 2022 by Matrim's Dice Now I want to switch back though, this is what happens with me. Getting flashbacks to not killing Aman that one time.
Mat he/him Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 Having reread the previous cycles, Sart and Araris have interactions that look very unpaired (Yes, Araris, that's what you've been saying the whole time I realize that, sorry, had to check for myself :P) but the short of it is that I don't... know xD Araris has v/e looking interactions with Vorros too Sigh Devotary I guess the issue I'm having is that if I'm wrong about this, we're more likely to lose to a 2p team then if I'm wrong voting off Araris.
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