Long Game 85/Anonymous Game 12: Do Kandra Dream of Electric Sparrows?

[Amethyst Scorpion]

15 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Sorry I haven't really been playing this game since it started, I'll do better starting now.

...Starting tomorrow :P.

Thoughts right now are that I'd like @Indigo Weasel to give reads because I don't think they've done so at any point in the game and I don't like that. I do suspect Swan a little bit, I think mostly due to the angles they're pushing being weirdly specific and kind of random, but a reread should help me refine that read. In short I'm alright with both existing trains but I do want to know what Vulture means regarding Dragonfly because I village read Dragonfly right now.

This post feels like a setup for a big change, not into it.

[Coral Swan]

2 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

This post feels like a setup for a big change, not into it.

Maybe, but I sort of feel like the elims would be aware of the fact that Weasel has, in fact, posted a reads list. Especially if Amber is right about Weasel being Falcon.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

2 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

This post feels like a setup for a big change, not into it.

What do you mean by that, is change bad? I have more time for this game that I did the previous cycles, so there might be a change but it’ll be for the better. Ironically I don’t have a lot of time today but this next week I do.

26 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Maybe, but I sort of feel like the elims would be aware of the fact that Weasel has, in fact, posted a reads list. Especially if Amber is right about Weasel being Falcon.

I reread the post Weasel mentioned, having read it when they posted it as well, and to me it’s less of a reads list and more of an outline of facts about interactions with conclusions based on that. Which isn’t a bad thing, but isn’t the same thing either. Most of what I see in that post is summaries and interaction trackers— yes, there are paragraphs where Weasel pipes in with their conclusions but those conclusions are only about a select few players and none are really village reads. What I’m interested in is Weasel’s good and bad buckets, so to speak, and that post instead has a PoE of 5 that is figured to have 1-2 elims by Weasel themselves.

So while that post is good, it’s not what I was asking about either. I actually think we could benefit from everybody making a similar list. I will as well, of course.

[Coral Swan]

31 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

What do you mean by that, is change bad? I have more time for this game that I did the previous cycles, so there might be a change but it’ll be for the better. Ironically I don’t have a lot of time today but this next week I do.

Presumably the implication is that you are a Kandra that just body-hopped and are setting up to have more leeway when impersonating Past Penguin

[Amber Vulture]

6 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

I'm not actually new to the site...

I commented on that during D2, yet you chose to play along in our PM  You likely realized this, but our PM conversation was me trying to elicit any sort of self-contradictory comment from you that could serve as evidence incriminating you of being a different player than C1!Weasel. 

What are your thoughts on Beagle now? You seemed to want them dead C1. 

[Ivory Dragonfly]

so imma take a look at the second day

focusing on the people i said before

 

first off theres vulture interactions

beagle and vulture talked about the tie of the first day and whether the elims would want to break it if an elim was up for voting

beagle says they wouldnt and vulture kinda pulls an about face turn to agree that yes this makes sense

idk how i feel about beagle my guess tho is that if vulture is bad so is croc

scorp goes asking questions about how kandra conversion mechanics work so scorp is probably village and then kas and vulture both explain how kandras work

vulture says theyre skimming everything which yknow fair tbh though if youre skimming everything though it sounds like you to know a lot about kandra rules

vulture says swan is good and swan is like but why and im curious too anyway my takeaway is they probably arent on the same elim team

hyena votes for vulture and idky why

vulture singles out the falcon ostrich interaction and then votes for penguin

id like to know why you go with penguin instead of ostrich when you connected both of them to falcon

penguin also wanted to know which is probs nai at the time

vulture weighs in on codes and stuff being not useful apparently and also asks for reads and also tells dingo the rules

vulture hops on albatross train right after ostrich gambit which helps damp the discussion for the day but tbf elim teams have been known to be reluctant about doing that

weasel does a big thing about hat the possible cases for the ostrich claim might be and votes albatross vulture mostly agrees with the breakdown

swan says ostrich might be a thug and also votes for albatross which

ostrich wasnt a thug pretty sure

still feels faintly like foreshadowing for elim ploy

anyways its vultures turn not swans turn and vulture replies with paranoia but keeps vote

thats it for the second day turn yay

idk what to conclude yet but their reaction to the albatross vote is probs important somehow

 

now penguin

penguin and swan talk about whether or not falcons interactions are useful and penguin says they arent and tbh i can see both sides penguin has good sounding reasons

penguin responds against vultures vote and it doesnt really feel like theyre on a team

also responds to swan saying scorp unlikely to be related to falcon

which i agree with

but not for those reasons

theyre the same as what was used to justify that ostrich and falcon werent on a team which idk if they were on the first cycle or not but clearly they both ended up being elims

penguin disagrees with dingo over elims wanting pms so either dingo is pretending not to know falcon was an elim or dingo is village

penguin village reads both of the tied votes on the first day also asks for reads

penguin village reads hyena and jumps on the alb train which seems nai

slight village but ive still got my eye on you

 

more to follow

 

Quote

No, I simply lacked the motivation required to type up a case for a dead thread. 
You admitted earlier that you would have broken the tie against Scorp in the D1 exe, so why didn’t you? 

i said idve broke the tie in favor of scorp idk really how you read that as breaking a tie against scorp

i dont really agree with scorp very much

but they seemed honest and seem honest

i also dont think the elims would convert scorp after drawing that much attention to it but idk they do seem to kinda liek gambits so its not impossible

croc hasnt really pinged my radar that much other than being up for exe on the first day

[Amber Vulture]

3 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

i said idve broke the tie in favor of scorp idk really how you read that as breaking a tie against scorp

 

Right sorry my bad - but you didn’t answer the question  Why didn’t you vote D1? 

[Melon Dingo]

7 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

penguin disagrees with dingo over elims wanting pms so either dingo is pretending not to know falcon was an elim or dingo is village

Yeah... I didnt actually know how synthkandra worked at that point...

Sorry.

21 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

I wonder if nobody actually read my post from the second day because it was so long? It's on this page:

You know, that post has an interesting timestamp. It just happens to have been posted on Thursday evening.

I asked why you were talking about solving in PM and not in thread on Wednesday morning. You responded on Thursday afternoon, five hours before your (edited) wallpost.

I doubt it takes five hours to write a wallpost.

[Amber Vulture]

8 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

my guess tho is that if vulture is bad so is croc

How so? 

8 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

id like to know why you go with penguin instead of ostrich when you connected both of them to falcon

I mostly wanted more people to weigh in on the Ostrich interactions before I came to any conclusions regarding the same, which is why I went for Penguin who had been on my elim list for the past cycle already.

Apologies for not responding to these points earlier - I somehow glossed over the contents of the entire post up to the point where you responded to my stuff lol.

43 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

You know, that post has an interesting timestamp. It just happens to have been posted on Thursday evening.

I asked why you were talking about solving in PM and not in thread on Wednesday morning. You responded on Thursday afternoon, five hours before your (edited) wallpost.

I doubt it takes five hours to write a wallpost.

What are you implying? 

[Kasimir]

Hi all,

I'm aware some players have gotten rather confused about when the cycle ends. As the last Turn ended and this Day Turn began on 1st May at 0100hrs, it will be ending on 3rd May at 0100hrs SGT [=GMT+8] - i.e. in under two hours.

The only situation in which I will accept and grant an extension is if I have made a mistake in calculating the Turn's end. Otherwise, you all get forty-eight hours: no more, no less.

Get those votes and orders in!

[Amber Vulture]

Indigo Weasel I suppose because I do not wish for a downgraded rehash of D1 but I hope I'm not being pocketed and played by Swan 

[Chartreuse Penguin]

Coral Swan

This could be interesting.

What's the VC? If I just tied it I'll unvote :P.

[Amber Vulture]

13 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Coral Swan

This could be interesting.

What's the VC? If I just tied it I'll unvote :P.

I believe it is tied at 3-3 :P. But if you explain your case for Swan I might consider it?

edit:

No, it's 3-2 with Weasel in the lead

edit2:

Oh right. My case for Dragonfly is that they've been consistently posting while flying under the radar. None of their takes stand out to me, which is a red flag. They were one of the two players who abstained from voting D1, and I am curious as to why they chose to sit it out when they've clearly said that they'd have taken a stance against Croc, in favor of Scorp (for context, they were online at rollover). I'm guessing they might be a non-kandra elim. If more than 3 players are ready to vote in this direction I am willing to switch back.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Amber Vulture

[Chartreuse Penguin]

1 minute ago, Amber Vulture said:

I believe it is tied at 3-3 :P. But if you explain your case for Swan I might consider it?

I continue to not have enough time to do all the things that I should be doing but sure sure this is fine xD

Interestingly I think I vibe read you and Swan as e/e but idk if that actually holds up when you look at it closely, and I don't really e read you in particular. Also interestingly, I am good with the Weasel train as well as the Swan train despite the Weasel train being initiated by Swan. To me they're obviously not e/e.

I don't really have a case as much as a... mass of feels. Which I get is unhelpful for anyone else, so I'll try to elaborate.

As I've mentioned, I think my problem with Swan comes from their play seeming random, yet vying for thread control, but I can't really say I disagree with any of their points, which makes it hard to actually come up with a case :P. I think I prefer a 3-2 Weasel read since I do think there's ground to the Weasel case and I might have made it myself if Swan hadn't beat me to it.

Like, when you elim read someone and they get exed, there's sometimes the moment in between threads where it's like... 'Oh, they're going to flip village, dang'. Like you can feel it, and then they do flip village. And sometimes there isn't that moment, and most of the time in that case you're right as well- with Swan, I feel like they're going to flip village, despite my read. Weasel I don't feel that as much, though they certainly could. So I like the VC being slightly in Weasel's favor so that I can watch how the thread progresses.

Idk if any of that makes sense and I know it's funny that it sounds like I don't want Swan exed and honestly I don't know xD I've been more disengaged than I want to be and I don't have time for a full Swan ISO right now so this is where I'm at. A Swan or Weasel exe would be fine.

[Amber Vulture]

Hm.

Yeah I wouldn't terribly mind a Penguin exe either :P. 

[Chartreuse Penguin]

10 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Hm.

Yeah I wouldn't terribly mind a Penguin exe either :P. 

Neither would I :P. Would resolve my slot, and then I wouldn't have to worry about finding time to do anything except chill in the dead doc

Edit: I would of course do my best to not be exed, though, as my alignment is the only one I am sure of etc etc

Edited May 2, 2022 by Chartreuse Penguin

[Amber Vulture]

8 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Neither would I :P. Would resolve my slot, and then I wouldn't have to worry about finding time to do anything except chill in the dead doc

To summarize points against you,

You were one of the players up for the exe when the Ostrich stuff went down

You slightly defended Falcon during the D1 exe discussion

Falcon didn't place you in the 'villagery reactions' but rather in the 'had good vibes' list when talking about their reads off the group PMs, which I believe is a common place to put an elim teammate (not too overtly defensive, but rather on the null+ side). 

Overall tone seems off and hedgy 

I'm unsure about whether attempting to start a train now will be effective

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Amber Vulture

[Coral Swan]

I’m kinda confused as to why I’m being voted on. Could @Chartreuse Penguin or @Ivory Dragonfly summarize? I’m smoking myself again, so don’t count on vote manip to make/break ties.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

3 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

You were one of the players up for the exe when the Ostrich stuff went down

So were you.

5 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Falcon didn't place you in the 'villagery reactions' but rather in the 'had good vibes' list when talking about their reads off the group PMs, which I believe is a common place to put an elim teammate (not too overtly defensive, but rather on the null+ side). 

Falcon put you there as well.

6 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

You slightly defended Falcon during the D1 exe discussion

True, but I still think that C1 distancing would be a much more likely elim strategy than defending since Falcon hopped N1. You had Falcon as Light Elim iirc but were noncommital.

7 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Overall tone seems off and hedgy 

It is off and hedgy :P. Working on it.

So like sure exe me if you want but at least half of these points can be applied to you as well. Just making sure you understand that.

5 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

I’m kinda confused as to why I’m being voted on. Could @Chartreuse Penguin or @Ivory Dragonfly summarize? I’m smoking myself again, so don’t count on vote manip to make/break ties.

How many village Smokers do people think is likely in a 15p game? I'm thinking two. Can that be agreed on, or is there no good way to guess a kel distro.

[Kasimir]

Write-up edited in.

1 minute ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

is there no good way to guess a kel distro.

Slightly over forty minutes left in the cycle.

[Amber Vulture]

1 minute ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

So like sure exe me if you want but at least half of these points can be applied to you as well. Just making sure you understand that.

I do, except I also know my alignment :P. 

2 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

True, but I still think that C1 distancing would be a much more likely elim strategy than defending since Falcon hopped N1.

Ostrich did that, so I wonder if the elim team thought to go for some ~variety~. They knew Falcon would flip, after all, and it is expected that anyone would speculate distancing in hindsight. If we're looking to find more attempts at distancing, I think Swan had a vote on Falcon at some point before they moved it to Scorp.

3 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

How many village Smokers do people think is likely in a 15p game? I'm thinking two. Can that be agreed on, or is there no good way to guess a kel distro.

I know for a fact that an elim smoker exists. Could be Swan, which is why I'm so paranoid. 

[Chartreuse Penguin]

1 minute ago, Amber Vulture said:

I do, except I also know my alignment :P. 

I just think that if v!you did all the same things that I did, maybe you shouldn't accuse me of being elim for those things :P.

[Amber Vulture]

Alright I concede for now

14 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Ostrich did that, so I wonder if the elim team thought to go for some ~variety~. They knew Falcon would flip, after all, and it is expected that anyone would speculate distancing in hindsight. If we're looking to find more attempts at distancing, I think Swan had a vote on Falcon at some point before they moved it to Scorp.

I know for a fact that an elim smoker exists. Could be Swan, which is why I'm so paranoid. 

Also it appears that I have convinced myself Coral Swan

[Kasimir]

Just to clarify: Smoking works like a Tyrian Smoker. You can switch that coppercloud off, or extend it to someone else. There is no Smoking someone else without Smoking yourself. Thank you.

[Salmon Meerkat]

Even as a Kandra, burning a hop to kill one villager was an expensive ploy for the elims. If it was to protect a teammate it probably wasn't Scorpion. Vulture's bringing this up too much for me to think it's them. Penguin and Dingo are both plausible. I do see differences between C1 and C2-3 Weasel. Not smart enough to be sure of the difference between being replaced and failing to keep up an artificially different playstyle. Although claiming the latter is an obvious way to excuse the former. If Weasel's village the votes today feel like derailment, which would make me look at Dingo who decided this was the first time it was worth voting. If Weasel's evil it swings more to Penguin. I don't know about Swan. Claiming smoker is a good look but they were already been known to be Smoked earlier, so claiming Smoker is safer than saying they must have been Smoked by someone else. No way of guessing how many village Smokers kel would have put in, but Kas at least likes them. Penguin-Swan also probably not e-e which helps.

Probably is too late to vote Penguin, and Weasel's flip helps resolve Penguin's alignment anyway so voting Weasel here. Swan did start the votes on Weasel so more likely evil if Weasel's village but better to check Weasel first at this point. But now Vulture has switched to Swan so if I vote Weasel it's a tie. If Swan's an elim that looks good for Weasel while village Swan doesn't say much for Weasel's alignment. Don't want a tie though so

Coral Swan.