Violet Axolotl Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 Doesn't everyone know that Meerkat and I were trying (for at least part of D6) to bait people into a non-Beagle train? That's part of why I used my ability rather than just switching my vote onto Beagle. I'm in the middle of rereading the Meerkat Gambit right now, haven't seen anything yet that changes my mind about my vote.
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 I just skimmed the current day cycle, and I guess it's time to hop on the Axolotl vote for now. After quickly going over the reads of everyone else, I'm also reserving "suspicions" of Beagle, Mouse, and Dingo, though I'm not actually sure enough about any of it that I'm legitimately suspicious. I'll try to take the time today, probably after the cycle ends, to consolidate what I read and make a decision on who to be suspicious about from there. I'll end up claiming later today if I remember to, if that helps clear my v!read/my name. Though, given that I've forgotten to put in my actions for almost every cycle, I don't know how much a roleclaim would really help.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said: I just skimmed the current day cycle, and I guess it's time to hop on the Axolotl vote for now. After quickly going over the reads of everyone else, I'm also reserving "suspicions" of Beagle, Mouse, and Dingo, though I'm not actually sure enough about any of it that I'm legitimately suspicious. I'll try to take the time today, probably after the cycle ends, to consolidate what I read and make a decision on who to be suspicious about from there. I'll end up claiming later today if I remember to, if that helps clear my v!read/my name. Though, given that I've forgotten to put in my actions for almost every cycle, I don't know how much a roleclaim would really help. Beagle is dead, right?
Melon Dingo Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 Scimon Tlag read the surface of the note, then pocketed it unopened. "You assume, Penguin. I don't want to talk in the shadows with notes and whispers. Whispers lead to secrets. I want to talk out here." Quartz had been attacked tonight. He still hadn't found him, or found him enough to really interact. He knew of him, knew his iron, but he didn't know him. Why he drank, why he followed Su, why he of all people managed to continue his life in Tyrian Falls. "Who are you? Are you Aethex, the Jester? Are you Chartreuse, the Leader? Are you Penguin, the Thug? Or perhaps a mix of all three. Well... I am not three. Not anymore."
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said: Doesn't everyone know that Meerkat and I were trying (for at least part of D6) to bait people into a non-Beagle train? That's part of why I used my ability rather than just switching my vote onto Beagle. Yeah but in retrospect, that might just be NAI. Meerkat was in contact with you through PMs that entire time and pitched the idea - according to meerkat you said you still wanted Heron dead, but would be open to a Beagle lynch that turn so hmm. Also, if you/beagle are e/e, then Beagle already knew that the Heron train was just to see if people jumped on that wagon. Beagle then would've also known that Meerkat was just bluffing about not finding beagle suspicious for the first half of that turn. The reason he was bluffing was to make Beagle believe she'd pocketed him, so that we'd be able to see whether she also hops on the Heron train. She didnt... 10 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said: "suspicions" of Beagle lol EDIT: 6 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: Scimon Tlag read the surface of the note, then pocketed it unopened. "You assume, Penguin. I don't want to talk in the shadows with notes and whispers. Whispers lead to secrets. I want to talk out here." If you're not gonna talk in PMs, what do you mean by wanting to find Zebra all this time? xD Edited January 25, 2022 by Chartreuse Penguin
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 (edited) Okay, here we go: Elephant: Spoiler Day 1: Nothing No Vote, not voted on Night 1: Analysis to come. Day 2: Nothing No Vote, not voted on Night 2: Nothing Day 3: Says they’re start being more active. No Vote, not voted on Night 3: Useless post that doesn’t give any analysis or anything whatsoever. Day 4: Needs to read through stuff and catch up, then rp. No vote, not voted on Night 4: Nothing Day 5: Nothing No vote, not voted on Night 5: Nothing Day 6: Keeps saying they’ll look back at thread for analysis, and mentions that they’re literally just posting to dodge the activity filter, posts a vote count. Umm… seems kinda weird that they would have the vote count from not having time to do stuff, but possible. Might be from elim help tho who knows. No vote, not voted on Night 6: Finally some reads. Meerkat and penguin as village, and heron and alb as elim. Day 7: Votes heron and claims to have a role they forgot to use. Night 7: Nothing Day 8: Post is kinda weird, but seems villagery-ishish. Not much thoughts can be formed because mostly inactive, but I'm leaning slight villigery, but def not someone to focus a vote on. Now onto something jucier Axolotl: Spoiler Day 1: Votes on gorilla for trying to look useful without helping. Asking swan to switch their vote to gorilla. Makes a joke about how they shouldn’t try and get anyone else to see their way and should just poke because flamingo voted them. Joke about fifth not being sarcastic. Counters cham not voting gorilla by bringing up that people should be guilty until prove innocent. Explains last post better. Continuing to clarify fifth post. Keeps staying strong on their opinion that more reasoning is needed to not vote someone, especially at the beginning. I’m getting village vibes from these last few posts because they aren’t letting go with this as elims would be more likely to do because it draws attention. Joke about embracing killing fellow players. Unusual comment about possibly voting randomly? RP that emphasis his view about needing to kill players. Voted for gorilla, voted by heron Night 1: RP. Day 2: Doesn’t think gorilla and iguana are elims (they aren’t), is more suspicious of iguana. Thinks that if cham is elim then swan/penguin prob are as well. Votes cham. He does end up voting an elim, but lists three villagers as those that are suspicious if the elim flips elim. Likes the vote because diststrusts iguana. Suggests that people put votes on cham. Thinks that an elim play in previous game looks a lot like what cham did this game. Talking about games that araris has been in/the fact that araris has been elim a lot recently. Talking in third person, axol? Votes for cham, no vote on axol Night 2: Nothing Day 3: Votes on meerkat, and says the coinshot is likely not elim because of the double kill on octo. Not sure why this would be though… Agrees with meerkat when he brings up the possibility that elims hit octo because they wanted to make sure he was a thug. Complimenting meerkats post. Saying the above was indeed a compliment. Says his first thought of elim past meerkat is cham. Compliments meerkats post again and takes vote off. Tells gorilla they should get a better read for voting albatross. Thinks that elim team is probably risk-tolerant, especially if cham is elim. Votes on cham very noncommittally. Is less suspicious of gorilla, and might switch vote to falcon. Keeps vote on cham, and invites others to vote on either cham, gorilla, or falcon. Voted cham, no one voted axol. Night 3: Nothing Day 4: Doesn’t trust hyena. Explains a wbg, and why it would make sense for elims to do it. Think people should consider hyena possibly being village. Hmm. Saying he wouldn’t claim coinshot to meerkat if he were one. Claims rioter and that haven’t used it since d1. Ooh a reads list of everyone. Elim reads include falcon, albatross, heron, zebra, and myself. Of those, I know I’m village, and we all know falcon is as well. Zebra’s basically confirmed at this point. Heron is also confirmed. Albatross, we don’t know. But here’s the thing. He has CHAM as a village read. Like…what?! You were a strong opposer of cham earlier on and now that’s obviously flipped. Claims iguanas sooth could have hit a smoker. ‘Thinking about heron claiming as rioter. Not much, except is talking as falcon being elim like it’s fact. Thinks that elims probably doesn’t have a smoker. Thinks hyena is rea. More about hyena being rea. Blames bussing being the norm on araris xD. I’m like 95% convinced axol is araris at this point lol. Good job if your impersonating them. Thinks that falcon is suspicious. RP Votes on hyena train…hmm. Clarifying question. Jokes about voting out hyena twice when he claims thug. Votes on hyena, no vote on axol Night 4: Claims suspicion of cham because in pm they thought falcon elim was more likely than hyena elim. Explains previous post Question about shard mechanics. Answer to question. Counters penguin thinking that scorp is elim by saying they can’t rely on falcon being lurcher. Claims that it is basically guaranteed that there isn’t elim coinshot. Mentions it’s more likely for there to be more like 6 or 7 elims. Day 5: Analysis d1 votes. Thinks one of ostrich/flamingo are elim. Possibly one of cham/albatross. More suspicious of albatross. Think heron and beagle are worth noting. Hmm. And now you’re suspicious of cham again? But have it in a way that you can get away with not voting them. Votes…heron? Defends self, which makes sense. Talks about the possibility of impersonating araris. Thinks that penguins case against cham is convincing. Nothing here really, at least i think. RP Votes on chameleon and thinks that… albatross is now less suspicious. Nothing again Thinks gorilla wasn’t, but might have been, distancing. Votes on cham, no vote on axol Night 5: Nothing Day 6: Votes heron. Talks about possibly elim team roles. I’m confused why not voting on alb right now tho. Mentions how they think the elim team might be going for some risky plays right now. RP Votes on heron along with beagle, no vote on axol. Night 6: Says they rioted heron’s vote onto beagle. Thinks elim team is “Hyena/Gorilla/Chameleon/Beagle/Heron/maybe Scorpion?” with probably one inactive. Day 7: Votes Heron. Thinks tineye elim is less likely. RP Thinks zebra is probably village because they are lurcher. Small talk about d1 tineye messages. Voted on heron, no vote on axol. Night 7: Thinks everyone should just roleclaim. Gives reasoning for voting heron along with beagle. More reasoning for voting heron. Gives confirmed roles. Says axol could be a soother, though doesn’t think that makes him seem elim. Nothing helpful Day 8: Votes elephant for inactivity. Has only used ability twice. Says they appreciate vote on themselves because it will keep them alive. Votes on dingo. Nothing helpful I think Oh man day three is really, really odd to me. Starts with voting on meerkat, but doesn’t give much reasoning when they take their vote off. Their vote on cham isn’t that unusual ig. And falcon… eh. But also the part where they are not as suspicious of gorilla? That also doesn’t sit right with me. Seems like an elim who incriminated a teammate, but didn’t go anywhere so are trying to slide away from it. Day four he puts cham as village read, and a bunch of villagers as elim read (last part isn’t as incriminating). Day five, he starts out with being more suspicious of alb than cham, then is completely flopped that by the end, simply because of what meerkat has says. Votes heron when beagle is being voted on. There has been good reasoning for this, but still a little odd. Not sure why everyone should just roleblaim lol. That would just let the elims know the important roles to hit. I’m going to vote Axolotl because there’s just too much that seems off to me. They jump around quite a bit with relation to cham. The way they changed votes only because meerkat’s thoughts. Other things, just read my notes lol. This took a while and I’m drained, so I’m taking a break for a bit. If axol flips elim, I need to relook at scorp again. Edited January 25, 2022 by Plum Rhinoceros I forgot the semicolon lol
Violet Axolotl Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 Here's a read's list from Beagle: Spoiler Quote Sorry this is later than promised. I was feeling not great last night. When I sat down to try, I immediately got a headache. I'm still not feeling all that great today, so I'm not expecting to get through as much as I'd hoped. I'm going to start with what's happened this turn. I'm a bit disappointed that a lot of people have stayed so focused on Meerkat's gambit without digging into more of the reactions. While I get that it's frustrating (and to me, incredibly confusing) to feel like a villager just tried to throw things, I actually think we learned a lot about how people reacted. So that's where I'm starting. D3 Reveal hidden contents Questions for players based on above: @Charcoal Hyena, why retract your vote on Meerkat? I get that we had several votes there, but your vote on or off would have made little difference. @Fuchsia Ostrich, I know this might change a bit, but you said e!Meerkat makes sense with the push on Octo. Why is that? Does Meerkat's reveal change this at all? @Emerald Falcon, why no vote on Meerkat? Also, what about me is so suspicious? And you seem stuck on the phrasing "regular spiked". Are you still suspicious of Meerkat's claim of not being elim? @Violet Axolotl, what are your thoughts on Chameleon now? Still considering them elim? @Turquoise Gorilla, now that you've hopefully had some time to catch up, what do you think now? I'm a little irritated that people saying the timeline of the Seeker/Tineye thing is off is only now getting village cred, but me saying it right away is suspicious... Reads list: Hide contents Amber Vulture - Amethyst Scorpion + Their efforts towards solving and still working despite having "caught" an elim are indicative of a villager. Azure Mouse - Charcoal Hyena ?/- Not sure how I feel about the retraction off Meerkat before the reveal, but otherwise not a lot to go on. Mostly null, mild elim lean. Chartreuse Penguin +/- Most reactions seem village, but I'm still hesitant because of the desire to wait a turn to analyze. More or less null, leaning elim-ish. Coral Swan + Reactions seemed genuine village. Overall read has been improving since D1. Emerald Falcon - Their lack of vote on Meerkat while simultaneously condemning them is off. Then there was the attempt at finding the "seeker," but that's also really bold as elim.. Then there's the fixation on "regular" vs "vanilla". One of my stronger elim reads. Fuchsia Ostrich ?/- Null leaning elim. Most of their posts have been fairly neutral and NAI, which is a bit suspicious. Their fixation on Meerkat/Octo is off, too. No real evidence, just bad gut feeling. Ivory Dragonfly ? Not enough info. Magenta Albatross -/+ Mostly village here, with a few hesitancies (mostly role-related, for which I have already said I'm not willing to exe). Melon Dingo -/+ Fast enough response to feel naturally village. Same with their reaction after the reveal. Mint Heron -/+ Late vote on Meerkat seems honest enough. Light village. Onyx Flamingo ?/- Not a lot here, but very ehhh. Light elim lean for the lack of read otherwise. Pearl Chameleon -/+ Light village for now. Their reaction was odd, but not in a way that felt overtly elim. Plum Rhinoceros ?/+ Not a lot of contribution. Their post voting on Falcon seems honest enough. So null, slight village lean. Quartz Zebra ? Not enough info. Salmon Meerkat + Absolutely my strongest village read for PM reasons. This gambit is also not something I see Meerkat trying as an elim. Sapphire Elephant ? Not enough info. Turquoise Gorilla +/- Not a great reaction to what happened, but it could have been someone not fully caught up on events, so only mild elim. Violet Axolotl + Mostly village for their reactions and general desire to solve the game. Looking at the yellow category, we have e!Cham, v!Heron, v?Albatross, and e?Dingo. It's nothing real big, but a teammate would probably want to give their pals a positive read while lumping them with some actual villagers. Hyena makes a comment a bit later: Quote Could this be an E/E interaction (Azure/Onyx)? The timing certainly fits. Is it a guarantee? By no means. But it's interesting enough to make me want to look closer at Onyx. Seems odd that Hyena says e/e then ignores Mouse. Mouse is inactive at this point, idk. Beagle inconveniently lumps all the inactive players in one group. Not sure if that's because none of them are elim, of because of an expectation that we won't start looking through them for a while. Or because it's the totally normal thing to do which v!Heron does 2 posts later. And that's it. Sticking with my vote. I'm reading Elephant as slightly more village based on that last post. The combination of blatant bandwagoning and not knowing that Beagle is dead is pretty odd. It could be deliberate elim misdirection, but definitely looks like a villager that is totally out of the loop. Dyring stepped back from the window, satisfied that it was fixed. Glass wasn't cheap around here, and the current... state of Tyrian Falls didn't help much with that. Still, he was well off, and everyone expected Dyring's Inn to be neat. Couldn't have broken windows, especially not facing the street out front. As he turned to head downstairs, a crash sounded from the next room over. The very distinct crash that a window makes when a brick has been tossed through it. Entering that bedroom, seeing the broken glass, Dyring's rage boiled over. During the last day his anger had been warring with the depression caused by Kel's death, but now the anger won out (will note that any emotions expressed by Dyring here are purely RP and do not reflect the emotions any theoretical person that may be writing what he does). After sweeping up the remnants of the second window in two days, Dyring headed outside the inn, where a small crowd had gathered, most of whom were muttering angrily amongst themselves. He lifted the brick up and cleared his throat, drawing the attention of the crowd. "Why would the owner of an establishment like mine ever freely admit to being a Rioter? It would give lots of folks funny ideas about whether they'd been forced into buying my drinks, and certainly not give me any good will, what with the current state of things. And another thing. I've lived here longer than most of you. You know who I am, many of you have guessed at my past and what I'm capable of. You really think that if I was a Spiked, I wouldn't go about it a little more competently? I mean, what fool do you think I am that I'd draw attention to two of my fellow saboteurs and then fail to follow up? Surely the whole point in picking on some people that would eventually be confirmed as evil would be to cash in on the goodwill that earned. And yet, there I was, doing an about-face for no apparent reason." Dyring's face grew redder as he continued. "But the worst thing is, by calling me a Spiked, you call me complicit in Kel's death. I will not stand here an be accused of the murder of my oldest friend by a bunch of fools aren't a tenth of the man he was." (again, this is RP and should not be taken as an attack on anyone) He ended by angrily tossing the brick at the feet of the crowd, and as he did, the frustration fled, leaving him empty and exhausted. "The inn is closed if you don't already have a room. I'll be waiting on the porch if you need me." And with that, Dyring walked over and sat in his chair, closing his eyes and trying to block out the noise of the crowd, Outside of the RP, my about-face on Pearl had a couple of causes. One was that with Gorilla's flip, I felt that the elims wouldn't have stacked multiple votes against him. The other was that my reasoning for my suspicion D2 was honestly really weak. If you consider a village me that thinks Gorilla and Iguana are village, then I don't really have anything great to go on, so running with this for a while makes sense. But several cycles down the road when Cham actually gets voted out, we have a lot of other things to work with than a random hypothesis about a theoretical elim strategy D1. A couple of other miscellaneous things worth noting: I was with family and/or traveling during the first few cycles of the game, which means I didn't start doing rereads until recently. There was a lot of behind-the-scenes stuff in my PM with Meerkat, since I was bouncing ideas off of him rather than posting things in the thread for a bit, especially when we had 3 practically uncontested votes in a row, there wasn't really much to say. I kinda wish I'd pushed harder to defend Hyena. I'd ID'd him pretty early, knew that he hadn't played in quite a while and also that it would be pretty crummy for village!him to get voted out, at least partly, for a rep that was quite ancient and kinda irrelevant. The thread was pretty nasty that cycle for a while, and I was trying to argue his case with Meerkat in our PM as well (although more along the lines the people should hear him out, not really that he was village). I wish someone who was actively participating would have stepped in like Fifth did earlier, but it can be hard to think about that sort of thing in the middle of the game. I think that given the lack of opposition pretty much all the trains on elims we've had this game (barring Gorilla, and we've flipped or soft-confirmed most players that voted then), it makes a whole lot of sense to look at the inactives. Based on what content those players have provided, I think Dingo is the best bet for this turn.
Melon Dingo Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 Scimon Tlag shrugged. "I want to talk to Quartz. Not the Zebra. I don't want to get to know the Lurcher, I want to know him. Why he followed Su. Why he continued. Besides, talk out here... it's heard, and has records." "And..." he scratched his head. "I don't know his name. Just the Quartz and the Zebra. He doesn't talk about himself much. Makes initiating conversation a bit awkward."
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Melon Dingo said: Scimon Tlag shrugged. "I want to talk to Quartz. Not the Zebra. I don't want to get to know the Lurcher, I want to know him. Why he followed Su. Why he continued. Besides, talk out here... it's heard, and has records." "And..." he scratched his head. "I don't know his name. Just the Quartz and the Zebra. He doesn't talk about himself much. Makes initiating conversation a bit awkward." Do you mind going out of rp for just a moment to help me understand what in tarnations this means?
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 @Violet Axolotl why did you pick Chameleon for your D1 Vote manipulation? Were you worried they would shift their vote as they said they might? The vote tally was Turquoise Gorilla [3]: Violet Axolotl, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus Charcoal Hyena [2]: Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat Coral Swan [2]: Oxblood Beagle, Turquoise Gorilla Mauve Crocodile [2]: Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich Violet Axolotl [2]: Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron Saffron Iguana [2]: Pearl Chameleon, Mauve Crocodile Amethyst Scorpion [1]: Charcoal Hyena Pearl Chameleon [1]: Amethyst Scorpion when you last posted, were you around to see any changes after that?
Violet Axolotl Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 I can’t remember why I originally picked Cham. I do think I decided that I was more suspicious of Gorilla than Iguana, and specifically didn’t change the order (which I think I sent about 6 hours prior to my last post). I wasn’t online after I made that post, or at least not in the last couple hours of the cycle, so I missed all the last-minute votes.
Melon Dingo Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 Scimon gave a large grin to the somewhat newcomer. "I'm afraid you're stuck with me, Jerrien, but I might be able to clear things up a little," he said. "I want to talk here, in the open, day or night but not in whispers where only a few of us can see. I also want to talk with Quartz. They haven't given me their name, so I call them Quartz because most of you do. They were one of the few Jaists in this town, and I want to ask them about the Ja, what they're drinking and where I can get some. They're also a Lurcher, which is why I imagine some individuals have whispers with them, but that's not what I'm looking for. That help a bit?" He cursed silently. In all the chaos he'd forgotten a few times. "Praise the Ja!"
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 Sigh ~ Jerrien nodded in understanding. "I guess that makes more sense. So, what are your thoughts about Quartz, whatever their name may be? Do you trust them? Do you trust others? What do you think?" Jerrien decided to add in a quick "Praise the Jaw" for good measure.
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 Welp, I'm dumb. Whenever I read through I cycle I tend to pick out names and try to count how many times people have said they're suspicious. I tend to forget all other details, especially if that's the only couple of things I'm trying to remember in the first place. Thusly, I skimmed over the fact that Beagle is, in fact, already dead. And given that I don't really know why Axolotl is getting votes, and their defense looks reasonable, I'm retracting my vote until further details come to light. Axolotl
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 so reading through the posts of mouse dingo axolotl and elephant im not sure im sufficiently convinced of axolotl being evil and while i could do with more from dingo i respect their rp and feel disinclinded to go after them immediately i continue to be uncomfortable about this post which is their first post of analysis of the game coming in at night four and speculates about the existance of the elim coinshot when no one else was and muse about a sorta lowish number on the elim team size yes they were the third vote on chameleon after penguins large post on it but with beagle seemingly not around for the cycle to potentially argue against penguin or something better to jump on chameleon earlish for some credit in thread when theyve not done anything else up to that point elephant has spent the game filter dodging and while this last cycle has been a little better im only slightly hesitant over their confusion about beagle enough to probably still stick with what i said the previous cycle and vote for mouse though i can probs be convinced to move to elephant that leaves us with the following vote tally i think mouse has two votes from flamingo dragonfly dragonfly has one vote from mouse dingo has one vote from axolotl axolotl has three votes from ostrich penguin rhino
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 I just honestly can't say I feel 100% on Axol. I see the suspicion but I feel like they've voted on elims too many times for me to be certain enough on them. I'm sticking to my vote on mouse right now, because I really honestly believe that, with the lack of elim pushback, we likely have at least one floating around in the barely active players.
Violet Axolotl Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 I suppose I should mention that as a Rioter, I will use my ability in self-defense. So if y'all actually want me dead, you should probably aim for a 2-vote margin between me and the next strongest train (or 3, if I'm not on said train). 45 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said: i continue to be uncomfortable about this post which is their first post of analysis of the game coming in at night four and speculates about the existance of the elim coinshot when no one else was and muse about a sorta lowish number on the elim team size That is a good point. Both Hyena and Cham mentioned the possibility of an elim Coinshot (unprompted), and that seems like a particularly odd thing for a villager who is disconnected with the game to speculate about.
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 (edited) @Violet Axolotl, how many elims do you think are remaining? Who are the players in your pool? Because if you're not evil, then you're basically saying the remaining elims are in the inactive/semi-inactive pool. Is that correct? Edited January 26, 2022 by Fuchsia Ostrich
Violet Axolotl Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said: @Violet Axolotl, how many elims do you think are remaining? Who are the players in your pool? Because if you're not evil, then you're basically saying the remaining elims are in the inactive/semi-inactive pool. Is that correct? I'd say 2 remaining, and at most one of those slipped by us by doing something unexpected/accidental. But yeah, I'd wager at least one of the remaining elims is in Mouse/Dingo/Elephant/Dragonfly. Maybe both, given the lack of resistance to the non-Gorilla elim trains this game.
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 (edited) Gorilla in D1 - Quote There’s more room for 5-elim teams if they have more than one kill role, but that’s rather unlikely. I wonder if there's actually only one elim left hmm? If we start with 21-5 and give elims 3 village eliminations per cycle -> That gives elims 6 perfect cycles to win. If it's 20-6, then 5 perfect cycles... Of course this ignores the possible protects they might run into but it also ignores the possibility of any of the Mistborn rolling Steel and hitting village. Ahhh screw it - Melon Dingo Violet Axolotl Re-read D2 again, sorry there's a little too much opposite interaction between Chameleon and Axl in D1, D2 and D4/D5 for e!Axl to my liking. Also, something interesting from Sapphire I found in D6 - Quote I don't know why I keep saying that I'll go back over the previous cycles and analyze them, because I keep putting it off. I don't think there's much I could help with in the way of analysis anyway, but it shouldn't hurt to try at some point. (And to start posting for reasons other than to dodge the inactivity filter; that is also a noble goal which I seek to accomplish) The bolded is just ?????? implies they've actually been posting to dodge the filter? Edited January 26, 2022 by Fuchsia Ostrich
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said: resting from Sapphire I found in D6 - The bolded is just ?????? implies they've actually been posting to dodge the filter? yeah thats one thing that makes elephant feel off to me present enough to know they need to dodge the filter but not enough to post in thread is pretty consistent with someone whose limited time is taken up in an elim doc with the often more interesting discussion and scheminig with their team mates to be found there like i said i could pretty easily be convinced to vote on elephant too
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 I think there's only one left - I'll refer back to my post from Night 6: Quote For what it's worth I think there's only a single elim left. Apart from my brain and gut telling me so, I also have this Gorilla post from D1 at the back of my mind: Quote My own thoughts on the distro: I believe there to be 6 or 7 elims - 6 if there is a coinshot or mistborn among them; 7 if there is not. I'd say there are about one of each role, give or take one or two, in the village population. I'm not sure about elims, but I'd say there's likely one kill role (coinshot/mistborn) among them and two or three other, non-kill roles). They speculate 6 elims, given they have a coinshot OR mistborn. One sentence later they speculate one coinshot/mistborn with 2 to 3 other roles. Which adds up to 4 max. Except now we know there's both an e!coinshot AND e!mistborn, so I assume the initial 6 was to throw us off, and the later 4 was a slip (I think they had meant to write 3 or 4 non-kill roles instead, which would end us up with a max of 6 which would be consistent with their initial speculation). To me this means there's 5 elims: three non-kill roles, one coinshot, one mistborn. Regarding Elephant, I don't really know if we should be exeing them today. IMO we should focus on solving Axo or Melon for now while they're the hot topic :P, then come back to Elephant next cycle. Vote Count (hopefully not wrong lolz): Azure Mouse(2): Onyx Flamingo, Ivory Dragonfly Ivory Dragonfly(1): Azure Mouse Melon Dingo(2): Violet Axolotl, Fuchsia Ostrich Violet Axolotl(2): Chartreuse Penguin, Plum Rhinoceros @Onyx Flamingo how do you feel about switching to Dingo? Do you find Mouse more suspicious or equally?
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 I mean... elephant could be elim of course, but they've barely posted so it's really hard to tell. I need to look into dingo today before I would be willing to go onto a dingo vote. Honestly I think we need to figure out at least dingo/axol because if we kill mouse or elephant this turn, then next cycle we're going to literally stuck just where we are even if they flip elim because they've barely posted and we would get next to no info. Thoughts on dingo will come soonish, probably in the next couple of hours as will albatross b/c I've already started an analysis for them.
Quartz Zebra Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 Azure Mouse. They left me on read, and only an evil elim could do something so horrendous.
Azure Mouse Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Quartz Zebra said: Azure Mouse. They left me on read, and only an evil elim could do something so horrendous. You sent me a message and instantly asked for a role claim. What did you want me to do? (Besides claim, of course. That would be silly to someone I've had no interaction with)
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