The cause/driver of desolations

[Daishi5]

Desolations, the big bad time of lots of death, how do they work?

 

First off, we have the Word of God.  Or, to be more accurate in this case, the voicemail recording of Honor.  It doesn't tell us much about desolations, but it does seem to hint that Odium has some choice in when to bring about desolations: 

 

He's realized that you, given time, will become your own enemies.  That he doesn't need to fight you.  Not if he can make you forget, make you turn against one another.

While that doesn't actually say that Odium is delaying the desolations, it does seem to hint that Odium has just decided to sit back and wait till everyone forgets about him and gets busy killing each other.  So, theory one, Odium gets to start the Desolations on his schedule.

 

Next, the prologue and the epilogue.  Not much to go on, just two quotes with almost no detail:

 

Ishar believes that so long as there is one of us still bound to the Oathpact, it may be enough.  There is a chance we might end the cycle of Desolations.  

 

I... I am Talenel'Elin, Stonesinew, Herald of the Almighty.  The Desolation has come.  Oh, God... it has come.  And I have failed.

The Heralds seem have some control or influence on Desolations, even to the point they think they might be able to stop them.   Taln has failed at something related to the Desolation.  It looks like he may be saying he failed to stop it, but it is ambiguous enough that he might have failed at something else related to the Desolations.  Second theory, the Heralds hold the Desolations at bay, this does not really contradict the first theory.  However, this one is a bit confusing.  The prologue seems like the Heralds might be able to stop the desolation by not going back?  If they might be able to stop the cycle of Desolations by abandoning Taln, why in the world were they going back before, what are they doing in the realm of nightmares?

 

Finally, we have Darkness, who may be a Herald, or just a random surgebinder-hunting-nut-job with a shardblade and minions with shardblades. (Maybe he is just like a comic book supervillian, you just have to pretend it makes sense.)  One quote seems to be the big one here:

 

“Others may be detestable, but they do not dabble in arts that could return Desolation to this world.” His words were so cold. “What you are must be stopped.”

So, we have someone who is probably a Herald who seems to think that surgebinding can return the Desolations?  Third theory:  Surgebinding causes desolations?  Some issues with this idea, especially how it can merge with the other two.  

 

It might be possible to combine all three, but I don't actually think that is right, or at least not complete.  

 

So, for a combined theory that is probably wrong in some way:  Odium strives to cause desolations, the Heralds hold him back somehow, and surgebinders somehow either weaken the heralds or strengthen Odiums attempts at bringing Desolations.  

 

Issues that I can think of with this combined theory:

• For some reason Odium has let this last Desolation wait for a long time, so he probably isn't pushing for it very hard.
• Only one Herald went back, but the Desolation is taking a long time.  This could be because Odium isn't pushing hard.
• Honor seems to be telling Dalinar that the KR need to stand again, but why would he do that if it Surgebinding brings about Desolations.
• If the combined theory is right, then every single person seems to be working against their own interests, Odium is not pushing for this Desolation, the Heralds only have one person trying to stop it, and Honor left a voicemail for someone to revive the KR and thus bring about a Desolation.

This last issue is interesting to me.  If those three different ideas about Desolations form one coherent theory, then something more complex may be going on with Desolations than just a big fight that Odium might win.  

 

So, for the TLDR:  Theory: Odium is the driver behind desolations, and he has held this one back for a long time for some reason.  Heralds have some way of holding back Desolations, but it seems that they might do it better when they are not in the realm of nightmares, which makes me wonder why they had to go back there in the first place.  Surgebinding either weakens the Heralds ability to hold back Desolations, strengthens Odiums push for Desolations, or in some other way makes Desolations happen.  However, Honor's voicemail seems to be pushing people to bring back surgebinding and thus Desolations.

 

(If this seems rambling and confused, it is because I am confused.  What we seem to know does not make much sense; combined with the actors we know and their assumed goals seem contrary to their actions given what I think is happening.)

[Gloom]

I believe that we should go back to the premise of the books. Brandon said the SA was about magic returning to a world. So we can assume that the amount of active investiture in the Physical can affect the frequency of Desolations. If this is so, then the attempts by the Heralds to limit the amount of magic in the Physical makes a certain amount of sense, but it is a flawed premise to think that limiting the magic in the Physical could prevent Desolations. Instead, it is likely that the lack of magic in the Physical has merely delayed the Desolations. It is likely that Odium was okay with the delay, because he spent the time well. He shattered Honor. Now he has nothing to lose, he can afford to push for a Desolation without concern of direct opposition since Cultivation seems to be preoccupied. Honor understood this, and so he left a message for those who were receptive to it with instructions to revive the Knights Radiant. How the Heralds fit into the intervening period between Desolations is ambiguous, but I believe that a theory was put forth that the Heralds in 'that place' could hold back the Desolations through force of will, which was why they were tortured. Break the Heralds will, and they are sent back to Roshar, leaving Odium free to act. I could be wrong, that might be my theory .

[Argent]

I like.

 

Here's a thought. I am not sure how much I believe in it, but it's at least possible. Maybe there is a difference between a "free" Surgebinder and a Knight Radiant. If Honor is pushing for the Radiants to be reinstated, and if the Heralds created the Ten Orders in the first place, then enlisted their help, and then quit their jobs, half-believing that the Knights will be able to hold the Desolations at bay... Well, it's starting to seem very unlikely that the Radiants are an issue when it comes to Desolations, as Darkness seems to suggest... So here are some options:

• Full Knights Radiant, due to the level of... completeness of their Nahel bond, are safe. But any "free" Surgebinder, anyone who hasn't accepted the Five Ideals, is potentially dangerous. In this context, Darkness is hunting those free Surgebinders, because he doesn't think they will ever become true Radiants, and thus will be a danger for as long as they live.
• Darkness is wrong. I don't think this is very likely, but Brandon has done something like this before - misleading his readers into believing something because a character who seems important and knowledgeable believes it. In this scenario, all Surgebinders can use their powers without advancing the progress of the next Desolation - but Darkness doesn't know that.
• Darkness is not a Herald, but one of the Unmade. The entirety of the "the Surgebinders and/or Radiants are advancing the Desolations" theory relies on whether Darkness knows what he is talking about. Which we often translate into "well, he sounds like he knows his business, and since this is all the stuff of legends, he must be super old; so he must be Herald." Except the Unmade, Odium's "Heralds" (if that speculation is right) are probably just as old and knowledgeable, so he could be one of those. In which case he is hunting Surgebinders to aid the coming of the Everstorm, not prevent it, and the justification he gives Lift is a flat lie.

Which, in turn, brings me to something else I just thought of. It's possible (also not very likely, but interesting nonetheless) that the Heralds and the Unmade are all the same. During Desolations they fight for Honor - and Cultivation? - (as per the Oathpact), but between Desolations, they are Odium's creatures; with the caveat that they can't lay too much waste on the world, otherwise a Desolation would begin, and they would have to clean their own mess. The memories of fires and chains Kalak mentions could be interpreted as metaphorical (though it requires some mental gymnastics, which is why I don't think this a very likely theory). The idea plays nicely with the Heralds' belief that their abandonment of the Honorblades might just end the cycle of Desolations. If the Blades are what binds the Heralds to the Oathpact, and my out-of-the-blue theory is true, Odium might have lost 90% of his champions in the prelude. Which might have been a blow strong enough to cripple his ability to create Desolations.

[Daishi5]

That is good point about the reliability of Darkness as a source.  I was kind of joking about his authority when I said he might be a comic book supervillian.  But, the truth is, were only guessing at who he is.  Even if we are right, Cultivation may have screwed with his head.

[cem]

Why would Cultivation screw with his head? She has more reason than most to oppose Odium. For her, it's personal because of Tanavast. Darkness is enough of a nutjob on his own.

[Daishi5]

Why would Cultivation screw with his head? She has more reason than most to oppose Odium. For her, it's personal because of Tanavast. Darkness is enough of a nutjob on his own.

It is just a possibility.  We don't know a whole lot about what Cultivation is doing or why.  

[hoser]

I really like the OP focus (upvote!).  There have been threads about the Oathpact and they are intertwined, but with the Lift interlude we have some more information. 

 

There seem to be additional hints about the Desolation trigger.

 

Why did the Heralds have to leave the swords? 

• The swords would automatically return them to the place of torture, which would enable Desolations.   I believed this for a long time, but there are issues with this.  The swords may be powerful, but the Kalak POV doesn't have him interacting w/his.  I infer from this that the swords are essentially passive objects.  They could act as homing beacons for a Shard to forcibly yank the Heralds back, but Kalak seems to think that the return is voluntary. 
• The Honorblade-Herald interaction contributes to Desolations.  This is an interesting possibility in that it could fit in with what Darkness said.  If the Nahel bond has a similar effect (or if Darkness thinks it does), then this possibility allows us to explain both the leaving of the Honorblades and Darkness' persecution of Nahel-bond surgebinders with a single cause (this assumes that Darkness has access to information that the Heralds apparently have). 

 

Does whatever Gavilar did (possibly involving the dark sphere that he gave Szeth) that the Parshendi were desperate to stop relate to triggering desolations?  The Parshendi apparently thought it would bring something on.  Mr. T seems to think that the death rattles started about that time.  Wildly speculating, I can imagine that Gavilar wanted to bring the Knights Radiant back.  For whatever reason, he could have done something to either remove a barrier to interactions between realms or create a bridge.  With the realms closer, the dying might be able to see things and the spren might be able to create bonds more easily.  OTOH Jasnah's shadow doing weird things seems to indicate that she was already starting to bond, so it may have facilitated the interactions, but they were already possible.  The fact that Darkness and minions were active suggests that Nahel bonds were already possible also. 

 

What did Szeth do to earn his punishment?  He says that "his honor demanded that they (Voidbringers) existed."  Voidbringers seem to be associated with Desolations.  I read this to mean that Szeth is being punished for something he did to harm the Voidbringers.  He also says that all the rest of us have to watch the world ending.  This implies that he knows about the final Desolation and that it was triggered before Gavilar did anything.  This further implies that he has access to information unavailable to Darkness, as Darkness' activities would be moot once the Desolation is already triggered. 

[Daishi5]

*facepalm*  I forgot all about the stuff that started happening when Gavilar was investigating the shattered plains.  

 

Note, the death rattles started when Gavilar was on the shattered plains.  Which means whatever he did there could have allowed Jasnah to start forming her bond.  He might have done something then that caused all of this.

[marianmi]

Maybe the KR by severing their bonds thought they would end the desolations, too?

Maybe Darkness convinced them to do it...

 

 

PS: An upvote for hoser for using "Mr T"

[The Count]

We should also not forget that Jezrin could have been lying or mistaken when he convinces Kelek.

 

Ishar believes that so long as there is one of us still bound to the Oathpact, it may be enough.  There is a chance we might end the cycle of Desolations

 

 

Kelek certainly seems sceptical about the implications. It also seems strange to me that all the remaining Heralds made a descision without him. If they though he lived, why not wait to get his opinion (it was not like they has any pressing engagements) and if they thought he was dead, why wait for him...

 

For all we know Jezrien just gave the same speech 7 more times as each Herald showed up to the meeting place.

 

But to the matter at hand... Desolations.

 

I will be very supprised if Gavilar's actions have not been responsible both for the resurgence (sorry) of Surgebinding and the build up to the Desolation. And the Black sphere of doom seems to be at the heart of it all.

 

Darkness could be treating symptoms rather than cause in his killing of surgebinders, misunderstanding the underlying reason for the Desolations. Remember this is the first Desolation that the Heralds have been present at the build up, all other have been ready to go before they even showed up. For that reason, I do not think he is a very reliable source on what causes the Desolations. I see his murder as an outlet for his insanity and so based on a perverson of the truth rather than the reality.

[askthepaperclip]

Something said above triggered a vague prototheory in my head, that I don't have time to flesh out:

What if the stormlight is the thing holding odium/desolations at bay? Is it possible that surgebinding consumes stormlight, thus eroding that barrier? If the KR realized this, that could be why they disbanded.

I realize there are several holes in this. Eg, at the end of the desolation, that barrier would have been almost non-existent. But maybe this will inspire someone to a better idea :-)

I kinda like the idea that the trapped heralds are the thing holding the desolation back, and that is what Taln meant when he said he failed. However, the problem with this is that we would be starting out the desolation with broken down heralds...probably not worth too much.

Something to think about: they are heralds, but it is not clear what they are heralding. A Herald is usually something that comes before. What if they are supposed to fight their way out damnation to herald the coming desolation BEFORE it arrives, to prepare us? All by himself, Taln was maybe too weak to do so, and thus only escaped as the desolation was beginning, thus his failure. That would also explain why Hoid would say he arrived too late.

[hoser]

FWIW, Taln calls himself a "Herald of the Almighty".  It could mean herald as a representative of the Almighty, who happens to be bearing news of the Desolation as part of his service to the Almighty. 

[Morsk]

I do think of them as "heralding" the Desolations, but it's worth noting that "angel" means "messenger". Brandon may have been looking for a synonym for "angel" when he named them.

[Oudeis]

Don't forget, Jezrien said, "They will have the Knights Radiant. That will be enough." So way back whenever, when Jezrien was saying "maybe we'll stop the desolations," he did so on the assumption that the Radiants would keep up what they were doing.

Also, this might help with the confusion: It's possible people seem to be working against their own best interests because their interests aren't as clear-cut as you might think. On Scadrial, Preservation's ultimate plan required that Ruin first be freed, then killed. Despite this, the Mist Spirit acted to prevent Vin from freeing Ruin, because there weren't just two options, there were three. One outcome was Ruin wins and one is Preservation wins, but the third was stasis. Leras decided not to gamble on Vin being able to kill Ruin, so he tried to convince her to give the well another thousand years. His immediate actions worked counter to his ultimate plan; if you'd judged him based just on his actions at the Well, you might be very confused as to his final goal.

Just so, perhaps desolations are bad, but they are also the only field where either side might win. So both teams are trying to prevent desolations until they think they can win, and then when one side thinks they can win, they try to bring about the desolation. And realize that the Heralds might be insane, which throws another monkey wrench into the works.

[Moogle]

On Scadrial, Preservation's ultimate plan required that Ruin first be freed, then killed. Despite this, the Mist Spirit acted to prevent Vin from freeing Ruin, because there weren't just two options, there were three. One outcome was Ruin wins and one is Preservation wins, but the third was stasis. Leras decided not to gamble on Vin being able to kill Ruin, so he tried to convince her to give the well another thousand years. His immediate actions worked counter to his ultimate plan; if you'd judged him based just on his actions at the Well, you might be very confused as to his final goal.

 

Just a thought: atium was still being produced. Vin and Ruin were evenly matched while Ruin did not have the atium. I don't think Leras was acting counter to his goal, I think he just wanted to wait another thousand years for Ruin to become weaker than Preservation (due to atium being locked away from him). Ruin was killed early, in other words.

 

BS has said Vin taking the Well and waiting another thousand years would have been a bad idea... but I'm not so sure I believe that in a long-term sense. Vin would have learned the same things Rashek did, and kept atium production going (but in a less harsh way, I would hope). She would also have removed her earring, not wanting to fall under Ruin's influence.

 

Allowing the atium to be produced and then locked away would have allowed Preservation to overpower Ruin, and after Vin used the Well, she was capable of taking up Preservation at any time, really. The main issue was Kelsier. His destroying of the Pits ruined everything. Vin would have had to grant herself Feruchemy (if that was even possible without Ruin helping... perhaps she could have used the mini-wells in the Pits?) and beg the kandra for a few beads. Or perhaps just take up Preservation early, but then you risk being corrupted by the Shard over the hundreds of years you wait for the PIts to start producing again. Hard choices.

Edited November 30, 2013 by Moogle

[Oudeis]

 

I don't think Leras was acting counter to his goal, I think he just wanted to wait another thousand years for Ruin to become weaker than Preservation (due to atium being locked away from him). Ruin was killed early, in other words.

 

That's basically what I meant. Preservation's ultimate goal was, "Someone frees Ruin, I die, that person takes my power, sacrifices her life to kill Ati, and a second person takes all the power at once." That being the case, knowing only Preservation's ultimate goal, it would seem odd that he tried to stop Vin from freeing Ruin, yet since we know he was post-poning his plan until it had a better shot, it makes sense.

Same with Honor, Odium, the Heralds, and anyone else you care to name in Roshar. Any specific action they take might end up seemingly contrary to the core of their ultimate plan, because sometimes a few steps back gives you better positioning. Something to keep in mind, to explain why with what we know the actions of a few of these agents might make less than perfect sense at the moment.

[Aether]

It is well to note that that Preservation was a only a mere shadow of himself without real conciousness at the time of the second filling of the Well of Ascension. He might still act to fulfil his ultimate goal, but I don't think it would be completely unreasonable to assume he might not have made the ideal choices at this point.

[Daishi5]

That and preservation was acting to preserve things just as they are.  

 

I also had a wild thought about how the oathpact came about which follows on the same concept, some of Honor's and Odium's behavior could be caused by a need to follow their shard's intent that may not be in their own best interest.  How that fits into this, I am not sure.