Long Game 1: In the Wake of the Koloss

[Oudeis he/him]

And, for the tenth time, YES WE DO LOSE SOMETHING BY WAITING. We kill someone at random, instead of someone we think is actually spiked. You're offering no alternatives, just telling us not to pick someone we actually suspect.

 

also... wow yeah, math. Sorry. I got my AMs and PMs confused.

 

I haven't explained why the Coinshot sat on his hands that second night, but you haven't explained why he did the first night. We know that the coinshot did sit on his hands the first night. I'm not saying it's the choice I would have picked, but it's evidence that he's not willing to kill someone when he's got a 1/4 shot at best of taking out a Spiked. Your argument is based on the premise that someone we know didn't take the chance the first night absolutely, 100% did the second night, simply because it's what you would have done.

 

You're also assuming the Spiked have no idea who the Lurcher is, and you're assuming that they simply won't take a 50/50 shot to kill off a Seeker which, if your plan is right, would help us out a lot. And even that's assuming that you're right, and the Lurcher will do what you tell him, and doesn't choose to protect himself, or maybe someone else. You're making three or four assumptions that people will absolutely act the way you personally would act. I'm sorry, but that is nowhere near good enough to convince me that we should change our plan.

 

Look. I don't mean to upset you, but it looks like I am. I really, really am sorry about that. I don't think I'm simply "digging in my heels". I've presented my case, and you've presented yours. I've told you the holes I find in your plan, and you've explained to everyone how you think those holes are covered.

 

I don't agree with you. I'm going to keep my vote as it is. Perhaps you've changed the minds of others. There is, I admit, a very slim chance that you're right. And there's a decent chance that I'm wrong. But without a much better reason to pick someone else other than Beetle, I'm sticking to my guns.

[Aether he/him]

@Kukri:

Sorry, but I am find your argument a bit too confounded for me to grasp. It only really serves for me to start suspecting you too, since it seems to have successfully sowed quite a bit of confusion and dissent. I shan't accuse you of anything, though. At least not for a while, since I'm currently following a voting plan with Darnam. EDIT: And Clancy, it seems. At least if he remembers to change his vote xD.

 

@Darnam

There has been made some very good arguments for both Beetle and Edgar (and both) at this point, but I find myself wanting to change my vote to Edgar, since Gamma was able to verify Beetle's information, while Edgar has only given up information we already know. We should vote for both today and tomorrow, but I feel it would be better to vote for the one that looks the most likely to be spiked first, so that the Spiked villagers will be fewer in tomorrows vote. EDIT: since you control three of our votes right now, I think we should be able to swing the majority either way. As per our agreement, though, I'll let you decide whether we shall change our votes or not, though I suggest we follow the plan of voting for one first, and the next day the other, whatever they turn out to be.

.

 

EDIT 2: In the spirit of scholarship, I hereby present the current tally of votes:

• Beetle - (7) Darnam, Edgar, Mat, Quinn,  Dyring, Clancy and Aether.
• Edgar - (5) Gambles, Maill, Beetle, Kukri and Wilson.
• Darnam - (0) Beetle and Maill.
   
• Currently not voting - (1)  and Porridge.

Clancy has agreed to vote for Beetle, but he hasn't changed the colour of his original vote, so is technically still voting for Edgar.

 

@Darnam: As per my argument above, I feel like we should change our votes for Edgar at this point (though we should still vote for Beetle tomorrow). It will then be tied between Beetle and Edgar, but the five who has yet left to vote, assuming they'll vote for either of them, should be able to swing the vote either way. If they don't and we end up without a certain majority for Edgar, we can always just change it back to Beetle again.

Edited January 10, 2014 by Aether

[dyring]

If Beetle gambled on Gamble was a regular... welll.

 

Either both are spiked, in wich case it was an attempt to both strengthen himself, and protect a fellow spiked. No gamble.

 

If not, well, its good odds. Or, perhaps the mistborn is spiked, and drew copper, and checked Gamble out, knowing he was a regular.

 

About odds, Smoker and tineye dead. He would know edgar was seeker. 1 regular. 13 left alive. Thug, soother, rioter, coinchot, lurcher. 4-5 regulars. 50/50. decent odds. More if mistborn drew copper and checked someone else out.

[Aether he/him]

If Beetle gambled on Gamble was a regular... welll.

 

Either both are spiked, in wich case it was an attempt to both strengthen himself, and protect a fellow spiked. No gamble.

 

If not, well, its good odds. Or, perhaps the mistborn is spiked, and drew copper, and checked Gamble out, knowing he was a regular.

 

About odds, Smoker and tineye dead. He would know edgar was seeker. 1 regular. 13 left alive. Thug, soother, rioter, coinchot, lurcher. 4-5 regulars. 50/50. decent odds. More if mistborn drew copper and checked someone else out.

I am merely pointing our that he did come with useful information, while Edgar didn't. Now, the spiked MIGHT have a Mistborn who MIGHT have drawn bronze, though as my tone suggests, I find that rather unlikely. He might have just guessed, sure, but then we have to take another leap of faith (albeit admittedly a shorter one). I have committed myself, as has Clancy and Darnam, to vote for one of them today, and the other one tomorrow anyway. I am merely suggesting swapping the order according to who seems the most likely (at least to me) to be Spiked at this point, so that the enemy has a higher chance of having one less vote for tomorrow.

.

I do not really care either way, though. I've let it be up to Darnam to decide what we do anyway. EDIT: Would you be willing to change your vote too, if we do? We'd have a majority for Edgar, then.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Aether

[Oudeis he/him]

Hrm...

 

I honestly don't know. I personally prefer staying the course. The one thing I know for certain is, I'm a Villager. I don't really see Beetle's claim as strong evidence for or against him. This might be the wrong move, but in past games like this, I've done better by sticking to my guns, unless I'm presented with strong evidence.

 

I'm sorry. I realize it makes me look obstinate, or like I'm digging my heels in. We've got the votes for Beetle now. I'd rather just stick here, and not try to get seven people to change their votes and muddy things up.

 

Also, you raise a good point. Clancy currently has two votes in red; his original post he never changed, and his swap to Beetle. What happens if we reach the end of the day and he's got two votes active? Will it simply invalidate his vote, or will Meta count the most recent one, the one that expressly says "I am changing my vote from Edgar to Beetle" regardless of color choice?

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Sorry, I've bee in classes all day.

I've read all the arguments, but I have to stay loyal to myself and vote for who I am suspicious of and not join any voting plan, unless it happens to be the same person. So I vote for Darnam today. The way he's gotten all these votes to Beetle just seems Spiked to me.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Mailliw73

[dyring]

Dyring is still voting for Beetle for execution no. 2

 

 

But Edgar came forward while beetle had more votes then himself. He had a good chance at getting away anyway. Would be a silly risk.

 

Beetle just came forward cause he had several votes on himself already.

 

Innkeeper Dyring gets more and more agitade as there is talking of letting his object of (lately murderous) dislike getting away.

 

"You are all a daft lot. Yeasterday you got hoodwinkled into voting for that poor stupid sod who got is head chopped off. Now you´r getting fooled again, talking about swapping to save the worthless little nogood creature. E needs to be removed, before he manages to kill us all!"

Edited January 9, 2014 by dyring

[Aether he/him]

Also, you raise a good point. Clancy currently has two votes in red; his original post he never changed, and his swap to Beetle. What happens if we reach the end of the day and he's got two votes active? Will it simply invalidate his vote, or will Meta count the most recent one, the one that expressly says "I am changing my vote from Edgar to Beetle" regardless of color choice?

He has directly stated that it's the first vote that counts, unless you change the colour of the original vote first. The "I am changing my vote" helps muddy the water, though.

 

As I said, I'll let you decide, though just to reiterate, I'm not arguing changing what we vote for, just the order in which we vote for them. Whatever we vote today, I'll vote for the other tomorrow.

 

EDIT: Also, lol:

 

"You are all a daft lot. Yeasterday you got hoodwinkled into voting for that poor stupid sod who got is head chopped off. Now you´r getting fooled again, talking about swapping to save the worthless little nogood creature. E needs to be removed, before he manages to kill us all!"

Edited January 9, 2014 by Aether

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Nothing personal going into this... but I just had a thought.

What if we all vote to kill of Meta? (The Game Host). As I said, nothing personal. But as a Gambler, I like to cheat. And the best way to beat the game is to beat who created it.  XD

(Completely not serious though.)

It looks like things are still leaning towards Beetle. I'll keep my vote for Edgar even if the swing goes the other way.
As long as Beetle or Edgar get voted out today we'll know something for sure tomorrow.

[little wilson she/her]

Currently at work, and just checking this on my phone really quick. Haven't had a chance to really read through all the arguments and accusations, and I haven't decided who I'm voting for, although I really don't think it's Beetle. So give me 2 hours to get off and home and I'll have more info. :-)

EDIT: Fixed those dreadful typos...

Edited January 10, 2014 by little wilson

[bartbug he/him]

Darnam... I honestly believe that you are not Spiked. At least, I want to believe that. You used good logic in choosing me, but you openly admitted in your first post that there were two others who you figured as equal chances with me. But Mailliw raised an excellent point. The way you raised votes against me literally mirrors the way that the Spiked, as you say, influenced the vote against Grayv. Not voting yet, just getting my thoughts out: It's either Edgar or Darnam. Edgar, because he has given all fluff and no substance, and Darnam, because it looks like you, Aether, and Clancy are all spiked. Just saying, the way you "orchestrated" Darnam getting three votes is a great way of killing a villager while leaving one scapegoat.

Edited January 10, 2014 by bartbug

[Oudeis he/him]

This happens in every game I play. I present logical, intelligent reasons, a few people listen to my ideas, and a bunch of other people react with, "Wait, he's getting people to vote with him? HE MUST BE EVIL!"

 

Guys. Getting people to vote with you is literally the point of the game. Beetle, in the very same breath that you use to tell me I'm probably evil for getting people to vote together, you then ask someone to vote with you. Well, which is it?

 

If you think my basic reasoning is flawed, say so. If you're just going to claim that anyone who manages to present a clear reasoning must be evil... well, then why are we even playing this game?

[bartbug he/him]

I'm saying that you used the "Grayv Incident" as your reasoning that I should die. That same logic condemns you, or at least implicates you. Getting a large amount of people to vote with you really isn't that suspicious. What is is two others whose votes are "tied up with yours". As I said, you (yourself) are the scapegoat for them getting in trouble when your Seeker dies.

I just want to see what's your thought process, because writing it out might show you that you really should not be voting for me. Waiting for your reply.

Edited January 9, 2014 by bartbug

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Darnam, I do agree that your reasoning is good. I know this is probably stupid, but I've mainly been voting based on gut reactions. You do say that since the majority voted for Grayv, the suspects start there but you do the same. There are even seven votes(I think) just like with Grayv.

[Aether he/him]

My tally of the votes have been updated in accordance with the new votes.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Ok, so there's six for Beetle. Kurk, do you plan to vote at all?

Edit: So on the list of those who voted for Grayv and the list who voted for Beetle, only two didn't vote for both.

Darnam is one, he didn't vote at all. Dyring is the other; he has always voted for Beetle. Wilson hasn't voted yet and Beetle isn't voting for himself. Edgar, Mat, Quinn, Aether, and Clancy have voted for both. Gambles and I are the only ones who have voted for neither.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Mailliw73

[Aether he/him]

Ok, so there's six for Beetle. Kurk, do you plan to vote at all?

Kurkistan isn't online right now.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I know, I was just wondering if he plans to. Edited January 9, 2014 by Mailliw73

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

I don't know about switching my vote or teaming up with people yet.

I still feel it's either beetle or edgar that will be the best leads. It seems everybody is going for Beetle, and I understand why, so I won't do anything to try and stop that or change their minds besides any earlier posts I've made. I have no other honest suspicions at the moment. So I will stay the course.

[Oudeis he/him]

I just want to see what's your thought process, because writing it out might show you that you really should not be voting for me. Waiting for your reply.

 

I have already given my reasoning.

 

If you don't care to re-read the whole thing, here's the short version.

 

We are all voting together now because I have given a reason to do so. I have explained my logical conclusions, which no one has argued against, and other people have decided that my theory holds merit. We are voting together for a reason.

 

These seven voted for Gray, teaming up, without explicit reason. Only two groups of people teamed up. None of them gave very good reasons; it was always "oh I just feel like voting for this person," not, "we all have this specific reason to find this person suspicious". The Spiked know who is Spiked, and they know who isn't. They are the ones with the best capacity to team up and try to kill a villager via voting in the daytime.

 

Is it the best reason? No, of course not. If anyone playing this game was able to show incontrovertible proof that "hey, this person 100% is Spiked" there would be no debate, we'd all be voting for that. Don't bother telling me I'm not 100% right, because I know that I'm not. I firmly believe there's a good chance we have chosen the right person to kill, but of course I can't guarantee it.

 

Anyone who wants to suggest a better system, please feel free. If you're just going to tell me I'm wrong, then I'm sorry but you're not helping. Telling us not to take our course of action, without telling us what course we should take, is how the Villagers lose this game.

 

And please, please, PLEASE spare me one more person chanting out, "Darnam wants to kill someone! He must be a Spiked!" For the love of the Survivor, that is the point of the game. If you are able to, please point out any flaws in my logic. If you're just going to tell me I have to be evil, literally for no reason but, I'm trying to get people to vote for someone, and that therefore everyone should agree with you and vote to kill me... please tell me you at least see your own hypocrisy.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I'm not going to kill you because you want someone to be killed. You're suspicious that in the first group of seven, it was a lot of the Spiked. Yet, your group currently has a majority of the same people (see my last post). If they are spiked, it doesn't seem to be helping.

Edit: according to my last post, I think some of the Spiked are voting with the majority. I apologize for voting for you, Darnam. I have rescinded my vote for you and am instead voting for Edgar. I have been suspicious of Edgar, Mat, Quinn, and Aether. I'm deciding to kill the one that we know will give us information on his truthfulness.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Mailliw73

[bartbug he/him]

Okay Darnam. I see your point. I didn't realize how unsure you were, and how you are just taking what seems to you to be the best lead. My vote is now to to Edgar. I encourage you to join me. We've both said that we are Seekers, but I'm the only one who has actually given anything that I've Seeked. Come on. If we kill Edgar, and he is a Villager, than tomorrow you can kill me. Or, you kill me today, and then you find out that I was telling the truth, and then you kill Edgar anyways. Or, we're both lying, or the Spiked kill Edgar tonight after you kill me. I don't know. But my case is much stronger than Edgar's.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Beetle, you jumping your vote around isn't really helping your case. I myself am suspicious of you now. Granted, I'm not going to vote against you, but, I am suspicious.

[bartbug he/him]

Mailliw: Right now, I am trying to survive. Besides, as I mentioned when I first voted for Darnam, it was a tenuous vote. I was on the fence, and it was a just in case thing.

And you Ninja'd me, so it's not like I was trying to follow you. (Please believe me XD).

 

EDIT: Not a real Ninja, but more like I didn't realize that there were 12 pages, not 11, so I thought that no one had gone. Then I realized, and I was like, crap.

Edited January 10, 2014 by bartbug

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Well, I posted six minutes before you. but I do believe that you aren't following me. I'm just saying, I do have some suspicions, but not just from that, from everything your voters have said. But, you aren't my top candidate, so I'm not going to vote against you quite yet.