Jo and the Bush

If i have done my math right, after this post, then LG31 will have only 2 more posts than us. So we won't be breaking that record.

I would recommend Greening out the name anyway. Also, if you are on desktop, there is a manual quote button. Vote Tally: Ecthelion (2): Devotary, Arinian Coop (1): Joe, Brightness, Droughtbringer Drought (1): Coop, Shqueeves Arinian (1): Joe No Vote: @Bort, @BrightnessRadiant, @Ecthelion III, @MonsterMetroid,@RippleGylf I am, once again, voting for Arinian. I keep waffling back and forth about him, he isn't a good bet for being an eliminator to me, but right now, he's my best bet. I have tentatively elim gut feelings about Devotary, Drought, coop, and Ripple. I have no reads whatsoever on Shqueeves, Bort, and Ecthelion I have tentative gut village feelings about monster. I would only vouch for Brightness Radiant as being an actual Villager at this point. Either that or She and Coop are both elims. EDIT: Ninja'd by Droughtbringer, who does raise a valid point.

That link broke when they merged the threads. . . which post?

This is the Night 6 Thread.

Ehhhhh Coop. Good enough. I guess.

1. A Joe in the Bush as Jeo the Yellow2. Shqueeves as Shu3. Bort as Bort the Brute4. BrightnessRadiant as Ivy5. Devotary of Spontaneity as Fahmexa6. Ecthelion as Eärendil7. Coop772 as Salthis8. MonsterMetroid as Roid9. Droughtbringer as Zaffer10. RippleGylf as Sarcoline11. Arinian as Elien I have no idea what is going on anymore. I was wrong about Mac's role, and i was right to ignore my paranoia about Lopen. I have a lot of homework to do today, and i have no clue who to vote for. I'm fairly confident that the captain, assuming all these cancels have been one person, is a villager. I've seen and heard no evidence of any sentries or awakeners. Nor eliminators for that matter, but Drake says they are here. I don't believe that Ecthelion would go so long without killing, especially since Len was in the Game. The games i have played with them, if one is an elim, they often make sure to kill the other. I could see Drought, Arinian, and very maybe Ripple not killing just to mess with us. Coop talked to me early on about Randuir maybe faking, and then Randuir died, and Drought. Coop! The entirety of my PM with him is him asking to look at certain things that Drought or Randuir did, and saying he finds them suspicious. With Randuir, it was his overblown speech at the very beginning, and with Drought, it was that Drought said Coop's play seemed normal from his past games! Coop claimed that this was his first game! But I just remembered this! Coop and Drought have played together! Admittedly, he was replaced by Brightness, but i don't know when. @BrightnessRadiant, @Coop772, When did you two switch in the AG?

@Crimsn-Wolf Has given her approval. IT IS NOW NIGHT 6! The cycle will end on Tuesday, the 6th of March, at 9:45 PST. (The Countdown maker Site is down)

You will have to get either @Jondesu or @Crimsn-Wolf to agree to a no lynch.

Well, if two more people vote for a no lynch, i would be happy to switch over to a night turn early.

The true test of a woman's character is what she does when no one is watching. Lady Altea Meza Heron smiled warmly at Lord Auden Heatherlocke and Lord Locke Tormander. “Well then my friends, it seems that all is settled. With our Hazekillers, the three of us will survive the night, and the Tormanders will slay that bastard Ivan, finally.” “Indeed,” Lord Auden smiled at her, “we’ll change the world, the three of us. Though we still need a new Ffnord, since Taswell betrayed us.” He snorted, “Uppity Skaa.” “Uppity Skaa indeed. Now then, It is getting late, and I would like to retire for the evening. Can you two see yourselves out?” Auden nodded, and rose from his seat, but Locke sat, silently. Altea cocked her head and him, and waited, still smiling pleasantly. Locke examined her, looking almost through her eyes. Finally, he nodded as well. “I shall see the two of you tomorrow morning.” Altea and Locke rose from their seats at once, and turned and left in opposite directions. Locke engaging Auden in conversation, while Altea headed deeper into Keep Heron. A double sized contingent of Hazekillers formed up around her as she walked to her Cousin’s study. Lord Ivan Heron, heir apparent to Wyrm. Her last obstacle, and yet her closest confidant. He looked up as she entered his study, leaving the Hazekillers stationed outside. “Lord Ivan, how are you this fine night?” “Hoping to be better in 5 minutes.” He carefully covered the letter he had been writing, as well as several other items on his desk. He stood and walked around the desk, placing himself in between her and its secrets. “What brings you calling so late in the evening?” “I just wanted to tell you that Lords Heatherlocke and Tormander have retired for the evening. I intend to as well. But i need to walk the walls again, and check in with the guards. Could I get some company?” Ivan did an excellent job at maintaining a poker face, all things considered, but Altea could still see the subtle play of emotions dance across his features. He wanted to know her game. But he never would. He was one of the best players in her game, but he wasn’t good enough. “Very well my Lady. Let us walk.” Altea’s Hazekillers formed up around the two Nobles as the exited the castle, onto the outer wall of the property. Another hazekiller, wearing a facemask, joined them, walking just behind Altea. The mist was out, and the City of Luthadel glowed warmly in the torchlight. Ivan examined the Hazekillers around them. “You’ve been recruiting, I see.” “How could I not, after Grumbles and Astrum’s deaths?” “A smart plan. Where did you get most of them?” “Traded for them mostly.” She pointed at one of them at the front. “That one i managed to hire away from the Tekiels.” she gestured to the masked one behind them. “He’s borrowed from a friend.” “Interesting.” They were nearing the front gate now, and the wall there glowed brightly, as if lit by a 1000 torches. Altea narrowed her eyes at it, in suspicion. Had Ivan actually gone and done it? As they walked, the source of the light came into view. The Heron Allomancers all stood or crouched around a burning carriage, that Aletea could easily recognize as Lord Auden Heatherlocke’s. The man’s staff were all bleeding out around it, and the Lord himself looked to have been pinned to the burning carriage by a sword through his chest. His clothes were alight with fire. “I must of course, apologize cousin.” Ivan smirked. “Lord Auden was a threat to me though, so I had him and Lord Tormander killed. Thank you for getting them into such an easy spot to find.” “I highly doubt you managed to kill Locke.” “Oh i’m certain he is dead.” Ivan grinned. “I had men waiting in his carriage for him.” “Yes, they were fun to slaughter. A nice warmup.” Ivan froze, Altea smirked. The masked Hazekiller behind them pulled his dueling cane from his hip. “Hello Altea. Nice night isn’t it?” “Indeed my Lord Tormander.” Ivan turned slowly. “Ah, my lord Tormander, I didn’t know you moonlight as a hazekiller.” Locke shrugged. “It keeps the blood flowing, and i wanted to personally make certain that Lady Altea here would have no competition in her house. A favor for a favor.” Moving with thug like speeds, he stepped forward, and jabbed his dueling cane into Ivan’s throat. As the man gagged, Locke dropped his cane, swept forward, and lifted him high off the ground. He stepped forward, carrying him above his head, and threw him from the wall. He sailed through the air, crashing into the burning carriage below. Locke and Altea continued to walk, leaving his body to burn. Shane was killed by the Heatherlockes! Eternum was killed by the Herons! Mafia was killed by the Tormanders! Crimsn Wolf has won for the Herons! Player List:

And that is Time. No more actions will be accepted. Writeup and next cycle will be posted in 15 minutes

Mmm, I agree with the Ecth one, since i've played games with him before. Same with Straw. I don't think I have played a game with Coop or Monster though. Which game did you play with them? Or did you just spectate or what?

When Lopen puts himself in his village list. Anyway, I have reread through the game (Actually, i typed that sentence just as i started the reread, but whatever. If you are reading it, I have reread the game.) And I have thoughts @livinglegend, during the first cycle, you said that of Randuir, Lopen, Arinian, and Monster, you suspected Randuir the most, but then proceeded to vote on Monster. Why? @BrightnessRadiant Due to your very first vote in the game, I trust you. Due to the first part of that post, i doubt my trust. Your post jumps from seemingly ditzy to incredibly well thought. Could you walk me through why you said the very first part of your post? @TheMightyLopen, I noticed something, in this post on Cycle 1, you said that you would probably vote for Elenion on Cycle 3. I can't tell if that is just scarily self aware, or part of a larger plan, but i would appreciate it if you could talk about why you didn't vote on Elenion until Cycle 3. @Ecthelion III, why did you vote at all on Cycle 1? You said you wanted to do no harm, so you voted on a player with no votes, but that was the cycle where votes didn't matter. @Coop772, during Cycle 1, the very first thing you did was too PM me, and ask if i thought Randuir was being Fake. Why did you choose me? Did you PM anyone else? Why did you tell the Thread that you were PM'ing me? Later on in that same cycle, why did you thank Straw for taking his vote off of Brightness Radiant? @Droughtbringer, you admitted to being an eliminator in this post, so i will vote for you, Droughtbringer! More seriously, Droughtbringer, you said you had slight Elim reads on Mac, Straw and Bort for staying under the radar by not really doing much actually useful discussion, but said that Devotary, Ecthelion, Coop, and Monster had slight Village reads for near identical reasons. Can you explain how you came to those conclusions? @Arinian, Why did you suspect Shqueeves at this point? I didn't find nearly enough evidence to shake my views, but i will tentatively retract my call for people to use Monster as a Contact. None of his posts really scream village to me. Lopen's question (See above) also makes me a bit more wary of him. I don't think i would vote on him at this point, but i wouldn't vote to save him. I think I still trust Mac, and still don't trust Arinian.

I would argue yes. Did you read the part in my ramble where i postulated that the eliminators were doing this in order to get roleclaims? And how i said i would have suspected anyone who suggested it because of that? I don't think we should I don't have an opinion one way or the other. Like I said, it could also be a large overpowered team. I do NOT recommend leaving your Vote on Drake unless he explicitly confirms it counts as a vote. Unless you are willing to die if you are wrong. I hadn't seen it i guess. Scrolled too fast. But i don't think i will be doing that again. If I'm going to wait until rollover, I'll go in with a plan on who to vote for if things change. Again, Don't, unless you are willing to die if you are proven wrong. I've already explained that vote. And I will re explain my Elenion vote down below when I respond to Arinian. Huh, that is possible, but doens't help us unless an awakener claims. I'll Second Lopen's suggestion of Monster as a good contact. If you want to dig deeper into that rabbit hole, I will gladly help you. Both of those cycles, not only did i vote after Mac had multiple votes, I voted on players who were voting on Mac. The Straw vote was just coincidental in that regard. I was suspicious of Straw, simple as that. But the Elenion vote was deliberate, because i started developing a theory in the final hours of last cycle: Mac is a Captain, and targeted Coop last cycle, and an Eliminator Sentry saw him do it. If the sentry only saw Mac visit Coop, and they saw that Coop's post was soothed, they would have proof of Mac's role. Then on Cycle 3, three players voted on Mac, when they hadn't the previous turn. Elenion did, for reasons that i still don't know, then Monster did to get more information of if Coop was an eliminator or not, and then Arinian did, for self preservation. If my theory was correct, then a eliminator would probably have been the one to try to get Mac lynched, since they want the captains out of the way, since they don't seem to be killing. (Maybe unable to kill?) Of the three, Elenion's was the most suspicious, so i voted for him. I still trust Monster Metroid, and i think that Arinian would have made that vote as a villager as well as as an eliminator. (Oh geez that sentence hurts me despite its grammatical correctness.) So I'm going to continue to protect Mac if i can. Honestly I even don't understand Joe's reasoning for voting on Len. I think probably he misunderstood Len's post: On previous turn I didn't paid attention to this situation, but I don't know, maybe I'm wrong but I reading Len's post as his theory about Mac and prefer to vote for Mac over me not connected, I think he didn't wanted to vote for me just because his read on me was more village. If you have an alternative interpretation of Elenion's vote, I would like to hear it. My interpretation was that Len read Coop's post, and realized that it was pretty obviously implying that Mac had a role. Yeah, i have been flying under the radar, because i simply don't have enough time to take good enough notes to do good enough analysis. This, right now, is the only largeish block of free time I've had that coincided with not having anthing to do in LG42. So I'm finally able to actually type things out in depth rather than cramming. If you are trying to choose between Me and Mac, I would prefer, well, i want to say me, because I'm roleless, but i think I'm also a more valuable player than Mac? Really I'd rather you vote on someone else. For now, I'm going to toss a vote on you Arinian. If I have time at work today, I'll do a detailed reread of Lopen's posts, because his mass roleclaim idea did actually set off my radar.

I would have liked to hear why Elenion preferred a Mac lynch before he died. I just did the exact thing I lynched Straw for. I voted on a player, thinking my vote wouldn't matter, because no one else was going to. Ok, but more importantly than Elenion's death, no one else is dead. No Eliminator kill. It's 1:30 in the morning, so excuse my rambling, but i've been thinking about the many many reasons why this could be. The motivations i mean. I think it is safe to assume the Eliminators are deliberately not killing us. Statistically, we would not have managed to roleblock the player making the kill 3 cycles in a row. So what motivation do the Eliminators have to not kill. Fear of Sentries, Kindness, Feeling too strong, Trollishness, Hoping for role claims, Meta gaming, and i might think of others as i type this up. Starting with the first one, Fear of Sentries, the eliminators would not make a kill because they don't want to be seen targeting a player. The odds of that are minimal, 1 in # of players-1, multiplied by how ever many sentries there are over # of players-1. I think. But as people have pointed out, a sentry targeting someone who dies can easily reveal their killer. And there isn't any back or forth either. If the sentry sees only 1 person target a killed player, it's curtains for that player. I think, if this is the case, it would be a team of 3 eliminators, who have a sentry and a awakener, and are naturally cautious. I can't really think of any of the players here as being cautious enough to forego killing for three cycles. But it could be caution mixed with kindness or trollishness? Kindness in another reason. None of us like to get killed early on. It gets really annoying, and i know i complained in somewhere, it might have been the AG dead doc, that i keep getting killed early on. So it is possible that the eliminators decided to forego killing, because they felt bad about it. The only player here that i could see doing that is Brightness Radiant, though from what i remember, she also likes killing. And I can't believe that kindness would keep them from killing for 3 cycles. If this is the case though, i could really only see an eliminator team of Brightness and older players like myself, Lopen, Ecthelion or Droughtbringer. I don't think newer players would do it. Feeling too strong is my best bet. No offense is intended to @Drake Marshall in this one. Our GM is a first timer, and could have given the Eliminators too much power. 5 Eliminators, or too many captains, or all sentries, or something else. If that is the case, i could see the Eliminators deliberately crippling themself to compensate for that. If that is the case, they might not kill anyone untill 1 or more of them are dead. Or they might just be giving us a head start and then killing us. If one of us dies tonight, maybe that will confirm this idea. I could see Lopen, Ecthelion, Drought, Arinian, or maybe Ripple advocating this. Or me. Trollishness is also a strong contender. Either on the GM's part, or the Eliminators. I highly doubt it, but our GM could have deliberately (Ooh, inactivity filter) put in no Eliminators, and we have to lynch him to win. More likely, the Eliminators decided not to kill just to amuse themselves. I doubt they would continue this long, but if you combine a troll with a kind player and a cautious player, i could see those three reinforcing the other's descions to not kill. I would see anyone on the list who has ever GM'd doing this, or anyone who has ever had an extended period in one of my spec docs doing this. Hoping for Role claiming was my best bet last cycle, but i don't believe it any more. I'll include it for posterity though. A bit through last cycle, i had a plan to fake being an awakener, and whisper to a couple of people that i had roleblocked someone, too see if i got killed that night. I would have told Monster Metroid the plan, and also would have needed to find a sentry to target me. And then it occurred to me that maybe that is what they were hoping for. After all, what is the point in not roleclaiming, if you know that no one will kill you for it? But, no one ever brought that up, or encouraged roleclaiming, so i'm fairly certain this is not what they are waiting for. Meta gaming, and inactivity filter, which i thought of during the Trollishness paragraph, are my new best theory. On Day 1, Randuir posted something about not killing the first night to get awakeners to role claim about having roleblocked the player making the kill, causing a mis lynch, and allowing the elims a shot at an awakener. (AS i type that, i realize that sentries would have prevented the plausibility of killing a revealed awakener, but that might have also been the point, as it would have attracted sentries to a predictable target.) But anyway, the eliminators saw that post, and decided to not kill just to see if we would fall for it anyway, since why would they not kill if the plan was already revealed? When that didn't work, maybe they hoped it would work if they did it again? But i think they would have given up on that by now, and I've forgotten why this is my new best theory, or how inactivity filter fits into this one. Dunno. The Inactivity filter could help though. Inactivity kills give the village no information. Actually, we have a real dearth of information about who the elims consider to be a thread, though we have only lost experianced players, so maybe they are directing the lynches, but two of them have just been bad luck that the best players involved died. (MAn, imagine if this was one of my games where everyone tied died.) I should sleep, but i can't I have too much else to do. It is currently 2 in the morning for me. I have a job with my dad from 8:30 till 11, and i work from 3 to rollover tonight. So i'll do my player analysis after 11, and vote then. Don't expect me to respond before then, though knowing me, i probably will ignore important priorities to check the shard instead, because i almost always do.

I don't really want to lynch either of them. I've read through both their posts, and i think they are both villagers. If i was going to vote for one, it would be for Arinian, because of his post where he voted Mac. Not the vote, but the way he defended himself, depending on past games instead of this one. I will vote for Elenion.Ecthelion III. assuming Mac is village, it is pretty obvious why coop is defending him. He has a role. So i want to know why Elenion's theory makes him prefer a Mac lynch.

Hello again. @Ecthelion III, i am voting for you right now to suvive. I should be changing my vote to either Arinian or Mac within a half hour, but if something comes up and i can't finish reading. I want to survive. Ecthelion III If i have time after that, i'll acrually look at why Devo is voting on me, and respond to that. Anything else i should look for?

I don't have time to reapond today. I will hopefully be online an hour before rollover to vote.

Lord Taswell Ffnord was not happy. He was in fact, rather angry. The other nobles of both his house and his enemies’ were coming for him, despite him revealing Lord Locke’s treachery. Were they all in the man’s pocket, or just afraid of him? Either way, it was time to abandon Keep Ffnord. It wasn’t his true home anyway. He’d only moved in during the war for the security. He had his own manor in one of the suburbs surrounding the town. He had married into the Ffnord line, but wouldn’t die with it. So he sat in his carriage as it clitter-clacked its way down the cobblestone streets. Out through the mighty Brass gates. “Ho Driver!” Taswell perked up. Who was outside the carriage? His carriage began to slow, and he could hear horses pulling up alongside him. Enemies or friends? Carefully, he peeked out through the curtains, to see several Obligators on horseback, surrounded by a dozen steel clad guardsmen. “Is this Taswell’s carriage?” The highest ranked obligator, a thug, asked. “Indeed it is my lord.” The driver replied. “Do you have business with my lord?” “Of a sort. Taswell, could you step out the doors please?” Taswell hesitated. He wasn’t quite certain if this was good news or bad. But in the end, he didn’t have that much of a choice. He pushed the oak door open, and stepped out onto the road, eyeing the Obligators. “Lord Quillion. How may I serve the Steel Ministry?” “Several of the nobles in your house are quite loyal to the Lord Ruler Lord Taswell. And they have been digging.” Ah, so he was going to die. “Digging? Do you mean physically, or metaphorically?” “For information. About your mother. Specifically, if she actually was a noble. She was not.” “That’s absurd!” He didn’t have to fake the anger. His mother was a noble. It was his father who wasn’t. “The truth often is. Kill him.” Lord Taswell tried to dive back into the carriage, but the men grabbed him by the shoulders and hauled him backwards, throwing him to the ground. Two stepped forward with spear, ignoring his cries of injustice, and stabbed him through the neck. Sart was lynched! Sart (5): Araris, Crimsn, Eternum, Straw, Orlok Mafia (1): Shane Straw (1): Jondesu The Night will end in Player List:

First off, I should be asleep. It is 2 in the morning my time. Second off, a captain helped out shqueeves. Third off, there was no kill. Again. Statistically speaking, it is improbable for there to be two successful roleblocks. (1 in 16 chance of hitting the right player, times 1 in 15 chance the second round (1 in 250 about) But that is assuming 1 awakener.(1 in 50 chance if there are 2 awakeners(Maybe. I am doing quick and dirty calculations.)(for there to be a 1 in 10 chance, we would need 5 awakeners)))) So i would appreciate it if an awakener could tell someone how many awakeners are in the dead doc. Fourthly, Straw was a villager. I'll look at Elenion, Shqueeves, Mac, and Devotary today. They all had more than 2 votes, or voted for Straw. I'll do that after sleep, assuming i have time after the LG42 writeup. For now though, Good night.

Too busy at work to be online at the end. Someone please watch the thread for any last minute voters.

Drake Marshall has responded that the writeup will state if the victim is lynched and attacked. So Rand was not attacked. It would be nice if the awakeners could talk to eachother in the dead doc, share respective roleblocks, and have ONE of them share those targets with a trusted source. Then we still get the list of targets without more than 1 awakener risking being revealed.

Vote for someone who has no votes, but be prepared to change it if others copy you.

3 people have voted on you now. That is at i was referring to. Though coop did retract before i posted. I see bandwagon as just a sudden crowd of votes

It applies to the people who voted for, say, lopen, elenion, or randuir. You are proof that a single vote can easily lead to a bandwagon, and i know you have experienced that in previous games. Also, has anyone asked Drake what happens if the elims kill the player who gets lynched? I have, but he hasn't answered yet.