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Elbereth

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  1. Elbereth
    The cycle is closed.
  2. Elbereth
    That’s a cycle where there are two elims, not one, able to put in actions, which could well be significant (especially if, eg, Aman is in fact the artifabrian on the team and wants to make a half shard for his partner before he dies). And if Aman plays it right - eg just slowly starts suspecting me and doesn’t actually hammer but votes sometime early tomorrow - then he might well be able to stave off the lynch for more than a cycle by arguing the elims were trying to frame him. (See: his outed eliminator record in general. >>) That’s also half why I’m saying this, so that if he does try to pull something like this it’s more likely to actually get him lynched. And thanks, Coda. I appreciate someone thinking my reasoning might be sound.
  3. Elbereth
    @Coda I would not be especially happy to be lynched as a result of my encouragement, but I care more about doing this the right way than winning. (That’s also why I’m not taking advantage of Aman’s rep, either. We can both be analyzed, and I want others to do so on our merits, not how scary we are.) So if you think lynching me is best, then do it. I just happen to disagree. Two further things: One. I’ve been re-convinced of Aman’s evilness. In large part because when I was rereading I looked more at this post: And I just can’t help but feel that he’s trying to flush out the Shardbearer’s identity because for some reason the elim team doesn’t know - if Striker didn’t target Sart after all (which Aman himself thinks unlikely), then the only thing I can think of is that Sart didn’t set up his Alerter. Which would explain why Aman is now fishing for said claim. Is that less likely than Striker having targeted Sart and just not said Sart was a suspicion or told anyone about it? Probably. But I would still heavily recommend the Shardbearer not claim, and instead pass your Shardblade tonight to someone you trust so that if the elims do know your identity, killing you won’t net them the blade. Also, we don’t actually know that Aman has given Artifabrian items to two villagers. While I am skeptical of an Aman/Araris team, I could see Aman/Stink easily enough. Either way, I don’t find his Artifabrianship and creating items for possible non-teammates (with a notable absence N2, in which he could’ve created something for his team if he liked) especially convincing of his villageness - Aman being himself means he would absolutely come under suspicion at some point this game, and it’s more useful for him to look extremely village than to have an extra kill every two cycles. Secondly, we really need to have a wide vote differential if Aman is evil. There are two votes on him right now; one is his own. Say Drake, Bard, and HH all come on and vote for him - that’s 5-3, presently. Aman switching last minute ties it, and the pain knife kills me. Sure, he’s then essentially outed, but it doesn’t put his remaining teammate in danger and it gives them an extra night of actions before he’s killed / lynched, which is a massive difference if it’s one elim vs two especially with the number of items they’ve acquired by now. So. If I’m right, we then need a vote difference of 3 to guarantee a tie, and of 4 to be sure Aman is evil. TL;DR Everyone who has voted for me (except Stink, who’s inscrutable as usual) has expressed they think I’m village. They also seem to think Aman is village, with which I disagree. Aman has expressly said he would rather be out of the game because RL/NaNo are being a pain (which, btw, I feel >>). So why is everyone voting on me, when Aman has voted on himself and doesn’t think I’m evil? Why is everyone voting on someone the entire thread thinks is good as opposed to someone who is much more likely to be evil? I would accept the argument “everyone just disagrees with you that he’s evil” if anyone other than Aman and Araris had actually responded to that claim. @Straw @Young Bard @drakemarshallow @Hemalurgic Headshot Care to weigh in?
  4. Elbereth
    And look at my chaoticism coming back to bite me. I would point out, though, that my instigating the duel draws heavy attention on me, and if Aman and Araris both flip good (which could happen as soon as the next day cycle if the Shardblade decides to hit Araris and get this mess over with), I am more than willing to be lynched or shardblade-killed. I can’t say I’ll like it, but that’s the price for doing this and I accepted it when it started. Basically, if Aman were evil, why wouldn’t I just kill him (he even asked for it last night) and be done with it? Even if you go with HH being my teammate, I could probably protect him from the lynch were Aman removed. Basically what I’m asking is, why does me instigating the lynch make me any more suspicious? (Also, Aman always has insightful analysis. Would be a lot more convenient if that’d turn off when he was evil. ) EDIT: Also, I encourage you to make up your mind without relying on other players! You have just as fine analytical skills, and the metagame doesn’t play too much of a role in this. You have the ability to decide for yourself - and if you’re wrong, that’s how you improve!
  5. Elbereth
    Thanks, I guess? I’m not asking you to vote, but if you had to choose one of us to die today, who would it be? EDIT: Also, letting RNG decide is a bad option when the eliminators have a Pain Knife? If Aman is evil (or if I am), he’ll just survive and you’ll have to spend another cycle lynching him for being saved by the elims, while he’s argui nd that the elims just did that to get both of us dead. (And if we’re both village, the elims do that anyway and whoever survives gets lynched or argued about for the rest of the game.)
  6. Elbereth
    If you want the vote tied, why vote? It was tied before you posted. And if you knew that, why vote on me?
  7. Elbereth
    I mean, you don't necessarily say who your top suspect is if you want to investigate them, but yes - so if Striker didn't Spy on Sart, why did he die over the Shardbearer?
  8. Elbereth
    Hm. That's... a fair point. That makes me lean a little more towards Araris being evil and Aman being good, but not enough to vote on myself. One way I could see the elims having an Artifabrian is having only two of them. That's dicey, but Sart could survive two lynches, and the elims having an Artifabrian would help considerably as well through Half-Shards / Grandbows. And the village does have a Shardblade, so I could also see even a three person team having an Artifabrian to balance that. And I... could easily see Aman using his artifabrian items to gain significant village cred (which has clearly been gained given I'm now much less certain of myself) instead of for more mechanically useful items for his team. But I do admit, I'm less certain now. @Fifth Scholar @Devotary of Spontaneity @Snipexe is retracting a duel claim permitted? That said, I'm not sure I'm willing to still - I am not so convinced of your innocence as all that, and further I remain convinced that one of you and Araris is evil. That certainty is stronger than I have for anyone else in the game, and I'm not really interested in sitting around and doing absolutely nothing for a cycle rather than voting for one of my top two suspicions even if my suspicion of Araris is now stronger than mine of you (which I'm still unsure about). EDIT: @Amanuensis @Araris Valerian and anyone else, who would you vote for were this cycle not a duel?
  9. Elbereth
    I..... hm. Why didn't they kill the Shardbearer? If they knew who it was, killing them was 100% their best option - the half-shard only mattered if the Shardblade was in enemy hands, and the possibility of having two kills a night is such a powerful one that I can't imagine them going after anyone else unless they had a very, very good reason, and Striker's role doesn't cut it for me. The only possibilities I see are: 1) Sart didn't set up the Alerter for some reason (highly unlikely), or 2) multiple people targeted him that night, and presumably one of those was Striker spying on him? Which also doesn't make sense since I would've thought Striker would've told someone - I suppose Sart had no other items than the Shardplate and Alerter, which means he wasn't incriminated by items that killed players had - and incidentally also means he wasn't the one putting in the kills, though I'm not sure that's useful. So I guess it has to be that second one? I'm confused now, because I'm not sure this makes sense - @Hemalurgic Headshot, did Striker tell you his role or who he targeted? @Araris Valerian? But I don't think it takes away from thinking HH is village - if the elims knew who targeted Sart and that one of them had a Shardblade, I don't see a world where they go after a random Spy over that, which tells me they killed Striker over his ringing the Alerter bell rather than any claims he made. Araris, Stink, and myself were the only players in it. I'm not saying so much that people would've learned from that - though they might have - as that making an assumption about how Fifth distributed items is dangerous, and the elims have played off it before.
  10. Elbereth
    Counterpoint: given the number of items the elims probably are accumulating, a Spy is much more dangerous than an Artifabrian even without the Half-Shard, so Araris not killing you last night is not especially indicative. We don't know that he knew that Striker was a Spy, but we also don't know if HH did. I would point out that this logic was also used in LG20 with unfortunate consequences. Elim!Kas in fact gave his Spanreed N1 to someone who already had one, destroying it, and the village proceeded to lynch all of the village Spanreed holders on the assumption that one of them must be evil. I would be entirely unsurprised if the eliminators chose not to use their spanreed for exactly that reason. I'm not saying it's likely, but... LG20 is a bit of a cautionary tale about such assumptions.
  11. Elbereth
    It’s my first game with you in a long while, yes, so I can accept that perspective difference - although I will note I was comparing Sart’s lynch to Xino’s in terms of information, not HH’s. Why are you more suspicious of HH? And I did talk to other people about this. I did not talk to you, but I did give you somewhat of a chance to defend yourself last night - and thought it noteworthy that once you started addressing me specifically I got a lot less suspicious than I had been upon reading any of your other posts. That in itself felt like a red flag (and has some precedent, with... I think Orlok being manipulated by Wilson and noticing how quickly his position had been changed? can’t remember exactly, but that’s what made me realize what was going on). And I do take responsibility. I know it’s not ideal, but I maintain that it was the best way forward from my perspective, because I have sincere doubt in my ability to get you lynched otherwise and I do think I have a pretty high chance being right that you’re evil. If I’m wrong, I hope the village has enough of a numbers advantage left to correct my mistake. Also, I’ve always wanted to use the duel mechanic. It’s an incredibly neat one that doesn’t get nearly enough attention because it’s only useful in very specific circumstances. But it makes for amazing writeups, and I might even throw in some RP later.
  12. Elbereth
    I appreciate you letting me post without double posting, if not the vote. I’m going to try to work my case into a summary for Bard, although almost definitely a biased one: Day 1: lynch is between Venture and Elandera. Elandera saves herself with last-minute vote manipulation and Venture dies (and is good). Night 1: Elandera is killed, probably so the elims can take her Pain Knife and have a roleblock / soothe. Day 2: Sart thinks that Elandera’s death is meant to focus attention away from the people who voted on Venture, Rath/Bard, Fura, and Drake. Aman calls him out on this, Coda votes for Sart and Aman follows. Araris votes on HH. Fura votes with me on Striker, tying Sart and Striker 2-2. Later in the day, Araris expresses that since no one else is willing to vote HH, he’s uncertain but will break the tie in Sart’s favor (disfavor?), putting Sart for the first time in serious danger of being lynched. Sart then votes on Xino, saying that he could save himself but doesn’t think Striker is evil (and says it’s a principle vote against inactivity, which is definitely not just an elim thing but I’m also not interested in getting into). Aman then says his vote on Sart was intended to cause discussion, and moves to Xino with no reasoning for why he thinks Sart is less suspicious. This puts Xino in the lead, which I would argue is unlikely for village!Aman because it’s a completely non-informational lynch. Even a mislynch on a good candidate is more useful than lynching someone completely inactive. He also tells Araris he’d be fine switching to HH if Araris is around. Araris then votes on HH (taking Sart down to a single vote on him) and Aman follows up, tying it 2-2-2 on Striker, HH, and Xino. Fura doesn’t like this and moves off Striker to Xino, putting him firmly in the lead. I then last-minute vote Sart because I want to see what happens if Xino gets a vote soothed off of him (and because I was planning on tying it last minute before all these shenanigans happened and I really wanted to hammer >>). Fura tries to counter by moving to HH, but messes up his code (and is mistaken about the vote count regardless). Night 2: Xino was the thief. Fura is killed and was village. The presumably village Shardblade attacks Sart, but he doesn’t die. Day 3: Very quiet. After a while Araris and Sart vote Drake. Oh, and Stink votes me without any particular reasoning attached. About five or six hours before cycle end, I vote Sart for his response to being attacked, and for the D2 lynch moving off him as soon as he was in danger. Three minutes before turnover, HH joined me on that vote, tying it, and Sart lost the coin flip and was revealed to be an eliminator with Shardplate (which I received). Night 3: No sign of the Shardblade, Striker died, and I express the feeling that one of Aman or Araris - who moved the vote off Sart D2 - are evil, leaning towards Araris. My reads in brief: Village - me, HH, Drake, Rath/Bard Neutral - Stink, Straw, Coda Evil - Aman, Araris (mutually exclusive) I was, clearly, lying last night when I said Araris was my top suspicion, because I didn’t want to be killed before I got to duel Aman. I will admit, I’m still not certain it’s Aman, but I think it more likely for a few reasons: one, Araris is the one who put Sart in serious danger in the first place. He could’ve just stayed on HH easily enough. Why put Sart in danger and then back off? Secondly, Aman’s votes that cycle ring off - the vote on Sart at the start really feels like distancing, and the Xino vote being so very non-informational doesn’t seem like Aman would go for it over even a villager - let alone someone he’s expressed suspicion of, like Sart. There’s 7 villagers against 2 elims, probably, and everyone is at least semi active now, which means we’re relatively far from LyLo. If I’m wrong and Araris is the elim after all, we have the room to lynch him tomorrow - or ideally the Shardblade would kill him tonight, even. But by far my best guess for an elim is Aman presently, and I didn’t think I could lynch him without restricting the choices to just us. So. Take it or leave it, that’s my case.
  13. Elbereth
    I hereby declare a duel between myself and Amanuensis under the rights granted to me by Sart’s shattered Shardplate.
  14. Elbereth
    I know it is. Didn't you see how much fun I had at the start of this game, before I got all boring and analytical?
  15. Elbereth
    Fair enough. Just try to tell someone, if you have PMs, why you think Araris is good? I'm curious to know.
  16. Elbereth
    Right, interesting. I can certainly accept the different perspectives argument - my counter is partly that I know I'm good, and partly that while I agree that considering multiple angles is good and will certainly reconsider given new information, I think there comes a point when you have to come to some conclusion? That is, HH being my strongest village trust doesn't mean I can't be convinced he's evil, but if I just constantly go 'oh from this perspective X is good but from this one X could be evil', I'll never be able to use process of elimination in the first place. So I am not discounting the possibility that HH could be playing me, but at present I find it more useful to look elsewhere for suspicions, and I happen to have somewhere to look - ie you and Araris for pulling the lynch off of Sart C2. I think it far more likely that one of you is evil than that HH is, at least.
  17. Elbereth
    Welcome back! Very glad to have you.
  18. Elbereth
    I would agree more if HH had guaranteed Sart's death, I guess? The fact that it tied the vote, rather than making Sart's lynch guaranteed, makes me feel like it's a villager ploy - after all, if Drake had failed the coinflip, all that would've happened to HH is a bunch of scrutiny for voting so last minute. I'm not saying I can't accept suspicion of HH, but I think suspicion of me is much more plausible - like, I certainly could be wrong, but HH is presently my strongest village trust, and I'm wary of people trying to diminish the use of the alignment reads we can try to get out of knowing Sart's evil. Also, I question a little bit the argument about Sart being better to be lynched - I'm not disagreeing, but I don't think it's guaranteed either. In terms of straight numbers, the Shardbearer hitting Sart again but a village mislynch would be the same as lynching Sart and the Shardbearer hitting a villager (which itself is more likely if they don't have Sart's alignment to analyse off of, imo), plus it'd give Sart an extra turn of actions, which could be especially important given the elim team is probably only three people (I could even see two, given Sart's ability to survive two lynches).
  19. Elbereth
    I did get kind of distracted from that playstyle, yeah... Although I don't know if I would've gone with that exact playstyle as an elim, I could've pulled off something very close (without the 'I'm trying to make my lynch maximally informative' bit) and gotten by from comments just like yours. So what I'm saying is, be wary.
  20. Elbereth
    Hm, okay. Again I don't think HH is evil (though I can accept suspicion on me), but could be wrong there. @Coda @StrikerEZ I see you watching the thread. What do you think about Aman vs Araris? Or me and HH?
  21. Elbereth
    Okay, actual thoughts time! First, I think it's fairly likely/clear that Drake and HH, and to a lesser extent myself and Rath, are good. HH because of his entirely unnecessary and unasked-for last minute vote on an elim, Drake for getting absolutely no pushback the entire cycle, and both Drake and Rath for Sart suspecting them of... voting on Venture, I think? I can't remember exactly, but Aman then commented on how it felt like Sart was limiting discussion to those three players (the third was Fura, who's now sadly deceased), which makes me think it's likely they were village. Secondly, I think one of Aman and Araris are evil, currently leaning towards Araris. This is because in the lynch of C2, which is when I first became suspicious of Sart, those are the two players who moved the lynch off of Sart and onto Xino and then HH. My reasoning on Araris is - Sart didn't vote to save himself, but instead voted Xino. We know now that this was also because he had Plate, so would survive not one but two lynches, tying the village up in discussion around him. Then Aman was like 'hey Araris want to move to HH with me?', and Araris, seeing this, seized the opportunity to not get Sart lynched at all. So if I die tonight, that's who I'd recommend you lynch. @Amanuensis why are you certain Araris is good? Also, killers automatically get the first item from the corpse before any go to the heir (I think I've already clarified that in thread before, in fact?), so the elims definitely got Elandera's Pain Knife regardless of her Heiring or not. And on whether me / HH is evil and why the elims didn't protect Sart, the answer to me seems obvious: HH voted three minutes before the cycle ended. They didn't think Sart was in danger until it was nearly too late, and it's totally plausible to me that whoever happened to have the Pain Knife wasn't around exactly at turnover when they hadn't any reason to believe there'd be movement. So I could be evil, if I was just putting a vote on Sart to distance myself but not expecting anything to come of it, but... I don't think HH can be unless Drake is, and that's unlikely to me for other reasons (see: totally uncontested lynch).
  22. Elbereth
    Aranmir and Yuriel worked day after day with the Elven smiths, and even when Aranmir slept the clanging of metal upon metal filled his dreams. The forge smelled of sharp steel and hot coals, and its sweltering heat made him sweat despite the cold of oncoming winter outside. Aranmir was glad to have been elected and free of the Council; he would much rather be here, helping to remake his sword into its full glory. While the smiths reforged the blade, Yuriel worked on the hilt, retracing its intricate designs, restoring it to brightness after centuries of dirt and grime. Only days before the Fellowship was to set off, it was finally finished. Very bright was that sword when it was made whole again; the light of the sun shone redly in it, and the light of the moon shone cold, and its edge was hard and keen. The blade itself was straight and long, the metal smooth but worked in curling patterns of steel within steel. The hilt and the top of the blade were graven with swirling Elven markings which read: I am Andúril who was Narsil, the sword of Elendil. Let the thralls of Mordor flee from me. For Aranmir had renamed it Andúril which means Flame-of-the-West, and he thought it a fitting name. Kasimir is one of the Free People of Arda! Vote Count Kas (3): Burnt, Fifth, Wonko Striker (2): Bard, Straw Cycle 5 has begun. It will end in 47 hours. Player List
  23. Elbereth
    The cycle is closed.
  24. Elbereth
    Hah. More thoughts to come when I’m not about to sleep, but I’d recommend protection on HH or myself for anyone with Painrials. And I’d welcome peoples thoughts on who they think is evil now - remember, you could die tonight, get them out now! EDIT: and also to give our Shardblade wielder advice, though they appear to be doing pretty well so far. Also, could someone please PM me this cycle? Pretty please? (Not for secret thoughts I just want to talkkk)
  25. Elbereth
    Note: I didn’t respond yesterday because I was focused on the MR and then needed to do a great deal of algebra homework. This might be my last post of today as well - though hopefully not - because I’m presently recovering from a minor emotional breakdown and who knows how that’ll go. So to be very brief because I do want to post something, I don’t read too much into Fura’s death but I almost wish Sart had died - I’ve been flip flopping on him hard (good for his last minute thing the first cycle and his first post the next, but if there was any elim up for the lynch last cycle I bet strongly it’d be him - he was the one who was in danger of being lynched and then two last minute other targets popped out essentially from nowhere to put him back into safety, plus his post this cycle about village-on-village action felt off) because I’d really like to know his alignment. I’d be interested in lynching him informationally at the least, although I’m not sure how near LyLo we are. I also don’t like that Drake’s been up for the lynch for so long with no resistance, so will at least for now vote Sart to diversify lynch targets. May come back later, who knows? @STINK why’re you worried about me?
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