Sart

I don't feel good about this game. I realized early on that role claiming was becoming increasingly effective in thread, because we hadn't jumped on early enough with fake claims. When it became apparent that I was the only one who hadn't claimed, I panicked. We were getting role analyzed hard on Day 3, which was causing me no shortage of grief. The issue wasn't the people inside of the Tie Guy result. The issue was actually the people outside of it. If the thread had assumed that there were 5 elims to start with (an underestimation), they would then assume that there would be 2 elims outside the pool. With a majority of the confirmed roles being outside the pool, the only people left were myself, Bip, and JNV, but JNV had a somewhat decent claim. That was causing issues, and I still hadn't come up with a good claim. I debated back and forth on Day 4 trying to bus Bip, by doing a bold claim of analyst. However, I started panicing, especially since another Tie Guy was on the table. At the very end of Day 4, I decided to say to hell with it, and just straight up open-wolfed to break what I thought was a tie. That didn't work, although Bip was saved. I went dead silent in the thread, because I knew my role was more valuable than Bips. However, I don't want to use inactivity as a strategy. It encourages a bad meta, and was making my stomach hurt. That's why near the end of Day 5, I backtracked my bus claim, and went with a yolo play to really distract the thread from Steel, another one of my teammates. It was obviously super sus, and frustrated my teammates as well. I even got the role name wrong. It wasn't a surprise when I got killed, although I wasn't expecting the runner up to die as well. I suppose I should have just open wolfed at that point, but I was frustrated with my play, and ended up just ghosting the thread. Still not happy about the way it turned out. This especially sucked because I love heavy role analysis games. It was just really bad for my team in this scenario, so I had to argue that revealing wasn't a good thing, when it clearly was. So frustrating, but it was fun trying to argue the other side. If I had any problems with the mechanics, it was actually one ruling that I think tipped this game to the village. Double trolling should have negated itself. Because we got a trusted troll early on, plus the addition of other potential trolls, it became too easy to trust scan results. As long as Aman trolled a scanner, their results would be one hundred percent incorrect, which is very easy to logically negate. That's why I blocked Aman twice (Sorry about that). We couldn't instill enough doubt in the chain of claims, and that spelt our doom. If instead trolling canceled itself out, we could've played with a lot more doubt. Even though our distro didn't have a troll in it, it would've greatly expanded the claim space, and would've led to less mechanical clearing. In conclusion, this game was still a lot of fun, especially in the early game. I'm disappointed in myself for how I acted though, and will try to rectify that in future games. Maybe I should've signed up for the Mid-Range game to redeem myself, but I needed to take a breather from this. I'll happily participate in the next one though.

Agreed. I've been trying for the better part of the cycle to try and justify my last minute vote retraction, but I can't. I panicked, and let an elim off the hook. I'm a Vote Analyst. Biplet is a Bot. Araris and Aman are clear.

Bip

What the... Bip

Yeah Yeah. I just got on, and was doing a read through. So, we need a tie vote? Fine by me. Biplet. I don't love the whole I haven't been paying attention defense. It's too easy for Elims to hide with that excuse. Let the Contribution Crusade ride again!

Crap. I forgot about Striker's claim. Just wanted to get discussion going on someone else, since I wasn't enthused about the Dannex train.

I still don't understand why you revealed so early. Yes, it was helpful to clear Striker, but you could have waited with that information. We now know deaths don't prevent someone from talking, so you could have revealed after your death. Now, we can't really trust your results, because of the high possibility of an elim troll. I'm pretty sure you're good though, since an elim wouldn't want that much attention drawn on them. Speaking of which, since I tentatively believe your claim, perhaps we should look at the people who voted on Striker. I guess Araris. Normally he sticks out more to me. That could be because Aman sucked all the oxygen out of the room, but he's usually a more vocal presence. I'm not really in favor of the Danex train. Like others have said, there has been an air of general apathy to this pick, which I think is more indicative of an elim team sitting back and relaxing. Ninja'd: I still don't love the amount of claims we've been making, but I'll bite. What is your role? If it is alignment scanning, that's a really good reason to keep you alive. The main argument against you is that you're quiet. Scans are a good way to get a lot out of a little volume.

Has no one heard of PM Safety???? By my count, at least a third of the players have role-claimed. Sure, some of them could be lies (Aman), but I'm betting that most of them are accurate. Some of them are just too specific, while others are easily proven. You do realize there are trolls that can mess with abilities, right? This is like giving burglars the blueprints to your house! No real analysis, just total bafflement at this point.

More just miffed over your imprecise use of language. Trans-substantiation refers to being the exact same as something. So the bread is the body, and god the father is god the son. StrikerEZ is not just a yellow-colored name, he has a yellow-colored. Wait why am I arguing church doctrine? It's almost midnight.

Okay, I have officially caught up with the thread. Here are some of my thoughts. I'm getting confused by PMs. Specifically, I'm confused if any have actually been created. I've seen some talk of a PM Spider role claimed by Wizard, that can only create PMs on Odd Nights. That seems like pretty tight PM restrictions. However, I saw some people asking for PMs, and I presumed they were getting them. I haven't gotten any, so I think I misunderstood that during the early shenanigans. Just to clarify though: @The Wandering Wizard How many PMs can you make during odd nights? I'm presuming it's a single action, so probably only one PM per night, but I want clarity on that. Also, do you have to be part of the PM, or can it be between two separate players? Has anyone actually received a PM? If so, how? With a role named PM Spider, I would expect it to be better at making PMs than any other role. With that out of the way. I'm still confused by @Amanuensis. I don't believe his claim for a second. A Football team? At this time of year, at this time of day, in this part of the forum, located entirely in this game? I don't see it. If this role existed, I would want to see it immediately executed. However, I think the whole claim is a load of bunk. Thus, I voted for him, with the simple logic of lying=probably evil. However, @Orlok Tsubodai has had a more reasoned approach to this. If I'm understanding him correctly, he's concluding that Aman is actually a Villager just fishing for information. The issue I have with that ties back to my earlier point. As far as I understand it, PMs are really limited this game. Fishing works great if you're able to be a trusted neutral, and can pull plenty of info. However, it doesn't seem like Aman could PM at all. How was he planning on getting any information from his claim? You could argue he was just doing it to stoke discussion in the thread, but that doesn't work either. It's like throwing dynamite to try and fuel a fire! Sure, you'll get plenty of damage, but most of it will be wasted, because it's built off a false premise. That's why I've gotten more suspicious of him. In the world of V!Aman, he would have no way of making PMs, so how would he get a trust circle going? Well, maybe not "trust" circle, but a gathering of role claims, and in the best case, an alliance offer from the elims. That wouldn't pan out. In the world of E!Aman, the team might have an abundance of PM Spiders, which led him to overstate his position. He could reasonably assume that he could get a bunch of claims, and thus went on this gambit. Barring mechanical information, I also don't like how he voted this cycle. He was the main one arguing for Striker to get removed, but then he pulls out at the last second. That's classic evil behavior. Start a train, and then ditch so that vote analysis misses you. I'm worried I'm making a tunnel to china here, so I'm going to try tomorrow to analyze someone else besides him. The problem is, he's consumed so much of the thread discussion that's it's hard for me to look away. You know what? I'm just going to let RNG decide. Join me next time as I analyze... @Walin apparently.

Look I'm just going to do it. Amanuensis. You've made a claim that's impossible to verify without getting immediately shot at. Even if we believe you, you've literally claimed that you are a Serial Killer! Admittedly, you are only intending to go after certain roles, but that still gives you a wide target list. Just by the nature of mafia, you are more likely to hit a Village soccer player than you are an Elim soccer player. You're not helping the thread, and your reveal has become a black hole of discussion. You've done this gambit before, and stayed alive way past your due date, and I'm not going to let you keep this up.

Excellent. It's been confirmed that I'm not a rational person, so this will go swimmingly. Signing up.

I volunteer to run a Long Game. It'll be a rerun of my Rithmatist Long Game. (It's practically tradition at this point)

Absolute crem. 2 4 3 0 4. I have no Air, which prevents me from doing most of the weaves in this game.

Well, I'm hoping for only one, because I'd prefer not to suspect my Warder, but if there is a second, it's got to be Luckspren at this point. I don't know what gave you such a strong village read on them, but that's the only scenario that makes much sense to me. There's no way that Araris and Devo are on the same team at this point, so that's ruled out. Technically, you could be playing the long con, but that seems overly convoluted at this point. Luck is clear of being the Forsaken, sure, but that doesn't mean they're village aligned. I haven't seen anything exonerating them. I'd much rather concentrate on the Forsaken though. Somebody had to weave block me, but no one's claiming it. I guess there's an off-chance it was Xino, but in that case, why Xino, why? If I was allowed to Weave, I could have blocked the kill, which the elims obviously didn't want. Xino should have also been able to block kills, so I don't know why he would weaveblock me instead of physically blocking me. Basically, Araris or Devo is the only one who could have blocked me, and it's easier for Devo. Assuming order of operations works to allow him to break out and shield me (I would definitely like a clarification on that), the odds of Araris succeeding are 40.5%. That's not as difficult as I would like, but it does make it less likely. However, Devo is claiming that their Harden Air action failed. There's only a 15% chance of that happening. It's dangerous relying on statistics like this, but that's a much shakier claim.

Well, time for the final piece of information we need. I was weaveblocked last night. I weaveblocked Araris during the day, so it would be difficult for him to escape my block, send a PM to me, and then block me back. Not impossible, but certainly not likely. Devo is more likely at this point, from a purely mechanical standpoint.

Alright. Araris claims Shepherd. Not sure I buy it, but, to his credit, he did send a PM to me. @Devotary of Spontaneity What is your claim? We need info, and I don't see any reason to keep it secret at this point.

Okay, was re-reading the thread, and this immediately jumped out at me. I think this is an elim slip. If we're really dealing with a 2 person team, then Devo saying Forsaken + Blademaster might be the actual composition of the elim team. After all, those are the two roles we know exist. Further, it's surprising that she immediately jumped to Bladesmaster as the second Elim role. Wouldn't the other elim specific role make more sense, or even just a Warder? This seems really off to me.

Obvious problem is if Xino or I die. You could claim to have sent one, but actually sent the kill instead.

I tried to warn you guys. Considering that another vote vanished, we can only draw one conclusion. There is a Forsaken among us. There are only two possibilities: Araris or Devo. So basically, we need you to claim now.

Sorry for the double post, wanted to add one more thought. Let's assume for a second that this a mislynch. If we're assuming 2 elims are still standing, we go down to 4 to 2. Even worse, we then have to deal with a night kill. Presuming that goes through, we're dealing with a 3 to 2 matchup next cycle. That isn't good odds. We have a pretty clear 50-50 situation in my eyes. I hope the town's collective wisdom is right here, and Conq is an elim. If he flips village, I reserve the right to say I told you so, and I wish we would have killed Araris.

Oh great. I'm defending a crazy person. Is there a chance that Matrim was not actually Shining's Warder, and was instead just a random PM contact? I guess. Do I think that's a likely outcome? Probably not. If this conspiracy theory is true, I think we have bigger issues, considering that Matrim has the trust of most of the village at this point. It's not helping matters that you're public enemy number one right now, so anything you say is being read with a massive grain of salt. Matrim is also right that you could be an elim, without being the Forsaken. Your teammate would still have to be Devo or Araris, and considering you voted on one, but didn't even discuss the other, it seems likely that Araris is the last one. Of course, in the scenario where you are evil, I look incredibly suspicious, which benefits your team a lot more than mine. Basically, everyone and their mothers are voting for you. The only person who hasn't yet is Devo, and I'm presuming their vote is going on you. I'm not going to join you on your conspiracy theory. I'm trying to prevent a mislynch, but you aren't making this easy. Based on my role analysis, Devo or Araris is the Forsaken. Quite frankly, you have nothing left to lose. Give me an argument for one or the other. I'm having trouble differentiating between them, so I'd like your input.

There's probably a Forsaken. On both Day 1 and Day 2 there was a vote missing, rather than a vote being changed. If the elims had the power to move votes, why would they only remove them instead? Only reason I can see is if they're trying to bluff Forsaken, but that seems like too much tin foil. Araris could have submitted the kill, if he is the Forsaken. I didn't see him do it, but there is the potential for a Fold Light action. If he's the Forsaken, it's 50-50 whether he would have the stats to do it. Mechanically, it's more likely that Devo did it, but my gut says Araris. If Araris is one of the Village exclusive roles, why did nothing show up? Those are physical actions, and at this point, I don't know why you wouldn't use them. It's also possible for Luck to have done it, but I really don't want to suspect my Warder. In the off-chance that Conq is an elim, and their teammate is covering a fake claim, their teammate is still in the pool of Araris or Devo. @The Unknown Novel Can the Amrylin Seat be bonded to a Warder? I don't think that happens in the books, but I haven't read the whole series, so I'm not sure.

I did not take any Physical actions. I Traced 4 people, only getting results for Araris and Conq. Again, same question. Who is the Forsaken? I'm bonded, Conq was bonded. We're out of contention. What is your role?