Araris Valerian
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Everything posted by Araris Valerian
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@cloudjumper, your vote tally is off. I'm currently voting for Ecthelion, not Drake. And honestly, I think people are making a rather big deal about something that isn't really that big of a deal. It definitely helps the village to hold off on killing neutrals, but the amount that it helps isn't too much. The damage I was worried about has already been done; there has been and likely won't be any productive lynch discussion as a result of the lynch on Joe.
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Well, if Ecth flips elim then killing him now is better than doing it later. Drake. Ecthelion. If he flips village then that gives me a slightly higher elim read on Dalinar, but not much. I don't think either way for him to flip is going to help, but I do agree that we need to stand together in this lynch.
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Long Game 36: State of Being
Araris Valerian replied to Ecthelion III's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Well, he doesn't exactly beat them. But sometime when little kids, or even adults, are being really annoying or thick-headed, the only way to set them straight is with a quick thump on the head. -
Flash, killing cloudjumper or Ecthelion isn't going to give us any further information though. I mean, I suppose my argument here means that if one of them flips elim you might come after me next, but they just haven't interacted with anyone enough to give us a lead on where to go next. If there are 4 elims left, and one of them is Ecthelion/cloudjumper, then there are 3 other elims that lynching would give much more information.
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Long Game 36: State of Being
Araris Valerian replied to Ecthelion III's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I'll sign up as Aralis. He got bored of whacking youngsters and being a ghost, so he decided to pop over here for a bit. -
I was paying more attention to who was neutral that to which neutral had a specific role. The only neutral role I was paying attention to was STINK, for obvious reasons.
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@Seonid, Orlok is neutral. So that vote makes sense for him. I guess I would like to say I am heavily against trying to solve the game by guessing role distributions, except in the case of seekers/kill roles, which this game doesn't have. I mean, there could be 4 (or more) village rioters, since it's not the most useful role for the village. And giving one team a lot of role manipulations can be easily balanced by giving the other team some smokers. We need to get more players involved in discussion today, since we need at least 7 votes to stop a lynch on Joe (assuming the neutrals all vote). Although, Joe's list only has 5 neutrals on it. So maybe the pauper noble didn't get converted? The alternative is to listen to Seonid and kill Joe, although I don't really like that right now. While we have the numbers we do, I think we should use them to force lynch discussion. The neutrals can afford to wait a while to kill Joe, but we need information sooner rather than later. Also, Joe, you are causing us a bit of a problem. The non-neutral votes won't really be able to be spread around at the end of the cycle, so likely we will have a big stack of village and elim votes on somebody to stop your wagon. That isn't going to be very helpful for analysis. The elims can hide behind "I'm voting to stop the Joe lynch." As for my reads: I think 2 or 3 of the elims are hiding behind inactivity (or low activity). There are plenty of inactive players, and it isn't too hard to steer the lynch from one of them to the next without drawing attention. I think that also means that the people that have been brought up in recent cycles for lynches are probably village. We would likely see mote activity in a cycle if any elim thought there was a chance that the vote might swing on to them. I'm fairly sure that Flash and Brightness are clear. They've just been participating too much. Other players I'd guess village on are Seonid and Cloudjumper, both of who drew some attention last cycle but didn't really rise to the call. The same with Striker. He had 2 votes on him last cycle, and didn't really do much. From the early cycles, I would lean elim on Stick. And her participation the last couple of cycles might be a response to the suspicion on her. However, right now I think we should lynch Drake. He's been lying low and hasn't really been brought up as a suspect, so he hasn't needed to be active. Last cycle, he voted on Stick, based on early cycle stuff, but didn't really make an effort to draw others to vote with him. There were already two other players up for the lynch that cycle, and the active players, Flash and BR, seemed convinced one of them was elim, so that was where the day was headed. A vote on Stick didn't serve any purpose, except perhaps for distancing if one of the two flipped elim.
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@Dalinar Kholin who is Aralis fellow? My name is Aimes, the only guy I know named Aralis died in Tyrian Falls the last couple of years.
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Those are my top three suspects, but they are also significantly contributing to the conversation. There is a lot of "negative space" to hunt around in right now, and I think that's the best place to be looking for elims. If nobody is trying to solve the game, then there is no incentive for elims to put themselves out there. Brightness, I meant more that you made a few posts that gave me elim reads when I did analysis of the first couple of days. Basically, disregarding anything you have done that aligns with village, you have done things that gave me an elim read. The same with Flash. Stick is different since most of my read on him comes from the lynch against Straw. Of the active, voting players, you three are the ones I have had the most to look at to find suspicious behavior.
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Well, my 3 top suspects right now in terms of suspicious behavior are Flash, Stick, and BR. Flash and BR both had things that stuck out to me during the first couple days, and Stick with the lynch on Straw. However, there are a lot of other people that I don't really have a read on at all. I know that several of you guys are reading me the same way, but I do think I've given straightforward opinions about most of the events in the game. @Drake Marshall, @cloudjumper, and @asterion137, you are guys I haven't really picked up anything on. Please vote on who you would be willing to murder this cycle. After you three, I have a little bit of an elim read on Striker.
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I also had a mild elim read on PK, @Dalinar Kholin. @Elenion, sounds good. I don't really have that much against you, you just stood out to me from the monster that is day 1.
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Well, in my last analysis post I came up with 4 elim reads, but I guess one of those was Rae. Stick was on there, but Aman didn't seem to read her as an elim, and he was doing fairy well with his reads. So I'll go ahead and vote on Elenion, for lots of inactivity, and for pointless bandwagoning Day 1.
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@randuir That post by Stick is the one I was referring to.
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Ooh, pick me, pick me! Or Elenion, actually. I definitely had a way better reason to vote on Straw D1 than either him or Rae, but Rae is clean. Also, I would have to look back, but I think that the lynch on Straw last cycle would be quite a bit more likely to be lead by an eliminator. Mostly because you clearly said who you would be looking at next if he flipped village, and there was a lot of easily redirected momentum on Stink. Edit (having looked back): I would say the two likely candidates are _Stick_ and Flash, with my money on Stick for both mentioning Straw first and placing the first vote on him.
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I think Aman didn't post that until the tail end of the cycle though. I wasn't awake to see it.
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Wow. It seems like my number one eliminator read is a confirmed villager... I guess I have to say that I don't really support this wagon on STINK. Yeah, threatening players with blackmail basically isn't a playstyle that I endorse. However, the wagon on him seems very vengeful and also not in the spirit of the game either. I also doubt that Stink would have blocked the kill if he knew it was targeting Straw.
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Well, here are my basic thoughts about important events for everything that has happened so far, in chronological order: How do you get things to not skip lines? Anyway, my village reads based on the above observations are in order from strong to weak (ish): Flash, Dalinar, Brightness, Seonid, Striker I'd say I'm not sure about Randuir, although I don't think people have really had great reasons to vote on him either cycle Elim reads (strong to weak): Rae, Elenion, Stick, PK Edit: Thanks Lopen
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I'll try and give you something to read about me. I've been really sick the last week, and this wasn't really a priority. If I don't contribute at all before the end of the night then the Coinshot can feel free to shoot me.
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Things go. But I tend to just leave the tab open, so it should look like I'm viewing the thread 24/7. Doesn't mean that I am. I don't have anything new to contribute right now except that I'm somewhat surprised by the turn the lynch took, since I missed out on the entire discussion about Jondesu. I'll say something useful once day rolls around.
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Those links are in the original post now.
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I actually had double implanted spikes! I don't think I was very close to becoming Ruin though. I guess I'll store them up with my Kandra spikes and stolen spike from the two Twinborn games, and my Spiked spike from AG3. I also became a spike in another game, so I suppose I'm up to 7 now. A few more, and a big stockpile of Atium, and I'll get to ascend to my second shard!
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@Metacognition, Honestly, I wanted to work with you guys as well. Thanks for running this game Seonid! I had a lot of fun.
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@OrlokTsubodai Except that's not exactly what's coming out of this discussion.
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Well, I still hold with my vote on Straw, and I object to Brightness Radiant's comment that I was just joining a bandwagon. In an AG, Claincy started a bunch of group PMs like this, and he was an elim. I don't recall any village benefit coming out of them. I caused the lynch discussion to actually become meaningful, since somebody was up to die after my vote. I don't really agree with the reasoning behind the other votes on Straw though. Rae and Elenion both seemed to want to keep Joe alive, and both voted on Straw, as if there was no other viable target.
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I'm going to vote on Straw for blatant proliferation of PMs.
