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Araris Valerian

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  1. Araris Valerian
    Aralis smiled. It seemed this whole nonsense about Spiked was finally dying down. What other reason could there be for the lack of accusations this day? But there were still a few people left that wanted blood, and Aralis wasn't going to let them get the jump on him. If he waited too much longer for anything to happen, he might die of old age. So he leveled his staff at the crazy guy. It was time for the rest of the insanity to leave Tyrian Falls. So nobody is voting. I guess the village doesn't want to mess up, and the elims are probably feeling pretty comfortable. Well, waiting to vote means that we just have less time to talk about things, and less time to see if there is a suspicious majority of votes for the person we are trying to lynch. So I say, lets get on with it and kill some people! (I'm voting for STINK, by the way)
  2. Araris Valerian
    Well, I think that STINK and Conquestor both have been too inactive this game to be eliminators. So I'll put my vote on Sart.
  3. Araris Valerian
    How does STINK having special knowledge make lynching Elbereth a good idea? For starters, he said basically the same things about Assassin. Also, I'm pretty sure the only players with special knowledge are Joe from his PMs, and the eliminators.
  4. Araris Valerian
    Aralis was tired. He was tired of fake Koloss, and of hitting people on the head, and he was tired of being old. He would probably retire after this nonsense blew over, at least for a while. You never can tell when a town will need an old cynic to keep things in check. But for now, he figured that Senn was up to something. Aralis had gone to all that work, practically breaking his staff in half, to get people to stay involved in the discussion until there was a consensus that it was over. And now that some people had listened, Senn was trying to kill one of them. Seemed like a great way to make sure that the rest came back to help... Not only that, but he didn't even give any reasoning behind why he thought El should die.
  5. Araris Valerian
    I guess I'll put out my 2 cents. I don't think that Wilson is an eliminator. I think her history of being killed early on means that it's pretty safe for an elim team to leave her alive until she is lynched. Not to mention that she is a really scary elim player in my experience, so the village is often after her. I also would have to disagree with Elbereth about Wilson's reaction. I was a part of the dead doc last AG, and she got kinda frustrated then too. As for Assassin, I stand by all the arguments I made against him, and I don't think I've backed him up at all. However, I think the things I don't like about him are not necessarily alignment indicative. Actually, they are kind of things I would think would be rooted out in an elim doc. So it's hard for me to decide how much a possible Spiked Assassin would be influenced by teammates, and for now I'm going to stand by my decision and not vote for him. For now I'll vote on Sart. I'm hesitant to say too much about the Dalinar lynch round 2, since enough of the village was convinced of his alignment that extra votes would have just been pointless bandwagon, which is why I also didn't vote on him. So my main beef here is disagreeing with his reasoning to vote on Wyrm. However, I'd also be up for lynching Jondesu. I'm in agreement that Elbereth and Orlok are likely not elims, because they could rejoin an elim team without needing super analysis posts. I'd guess that at least one elim is in the low to complete inactive category, as well, but it isn't really worth looking there right now when we have discussion going on.
  6. Araris Valerian
    It's not equals to.
  7. Araris Valerian
    @A Joe in the Bush, I don't agree that a large number of smokers contradicts Arinian's success. I mean, as a village smoker there isn't too much use in using your power, except to prevent vote manipulations. Also, In general I dislike how you have based your suspicions (as I see it) almost entirely on role distributions. I do agree with your vote, although not necessarily because of the role-claim. HH. I'm also curious about Drought, but I don't think the lack of a kill is particularly helpful for finding alignment. I suppose if Elbereth and Drought are both elims then the lack of a kill could make sense, but otherwise both teams don't mind killing inactives. I'm going to back off of Assassin, because while I don't like how he has been playing this game, I think that is mostly due to him having a different understanding of the game. I don't quite get the votes on Elbereth, since it looks like she has put in a lot of effort to get involved with this game. I don't think killing her now will encourage players in the future to try and catch up in games they have fallen behind in. There are still a bunch of inactives, but it seems like there are enough of us here that we don't really have to worry about them for now.
  8. Araris Valerian
    Aralis was disappointed in the town. After all the kerfuffle they had made about the "Spiked" and "Koloss," it seemed like everyone was just going to lie down and die. But if they thought about it a while (which Aralis had), then they would realize that there really couldn't be that many people trying to throw the town into chaos, regardless of what they were called. Aralis had been alive long enough to see some skaa rebellions, and the relative success of those had hinged on their small size and secrecy. Well, whatever was going on in Tyrian Falls certainly seemed small, and the discovery of two perpetrators both decreased the size further and took away a large part of the secrecy. If this was a skaa rebellion, and the Inquisitors had caught two rebels, the whole thing would have been over in a couple days. Surely the townfolk, deluded as they were, could manage to put up some resistance. So as Aralis put it, this game is nowhere near over. I mean, I expect there to have been a total of ~6 elims this game, based on the square root rule. That is now down to four (again, based on my assumption). With 18 players left, we are still ahead of the game in that the square root of 18 is greater than 4. Not only that, but we aren't shooting blindly in the dark, either! We have 9 days and 10 nights worth of discussion and actions to go with. Even if we started over and completely ignored the parts of the game that have happened, we are winning. The strongest ability is the power to vote, and we all have that left. If you feel overwhelmed by what has happened so far, look at the list of confirmed players, and then play as if it was Day 1! That is far better than not contributing at all. If you can look at the lynches of Dalinar and Nyali, even better! Now I said all of that, but I am right in the middle of my school day, so I'll be back in a bit and actually put together some analysis and a vote.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Okay, there are a good 70 minutes left, and I guess I'll switch from Conquestor to Gamma. I'm considering tying with Assassin, but at least he has been active enough to get a read on. Gamma hasn't really done anything.
  10. Araris Valerian
    Whoa, I've lost track of time for a bit. If we want to lynch a suspicion, then Assassin is still the top of my list. But since it looks like the opinion is to kill an inactive. Well, Conquestor seems to be the least active of those people that are both inactive and not scanned.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Drought, if the Eliminators have a lurcher, then any sort of vote will let them nullify your power.
  12. Araris Valerian
    The statements about protecting Arinian and scanning yourself weren't bad ideas, they were just fine. But the statements themselves were unhelpful. We should assume that the eliminators have a smoker, so anyone that pays attention to that sort of suggestion in the thread will just waste an action. That was what led Arinian to having some weird scan targets, according to him. The same goes for asking for Arinian to be protected. While it makes sense to protect the seeker, why would the elims attack somebody who is likely going to be protected? (As evidenced by their target that night) Maybe you aren't an elim. But if you aren't, I do suggest that you refine your playstyle a bit, because, at least as I see it, you are making a lot of statements that are harmful to the village. Once again, I am open to lynching an inactive, since the activity level today is still pretty underwhelming, considering all the effort Meta has put in to this game. I mean c'mon guys! It's the anniversary game. You only get to see Aralis in his full cynicism like this once a year. So come back and kill some folks please.
  13. Araris Valerian
    @Assassin in Burgundy: You're not wrong, I have been kind of tunneling this game, first on Rae, and then on you. I would say that is largely due to the time constraints that I've been dealing with, since once I latch on to something, I can both participate in the lynch and give the village information about myself, without needing to do a lot of in dept analysis. However, I have given substantial reasoning behind the votes that I have placed. It's just that it is somewhat cumulative, so I haven't repeated the earlier things about you that I mentioned or thought about. For starters, during Day 5 you accused HH and Rae's votes on Wonko of being an eliminator bandwagon. But votes that disagree with yours aren't automatically elim votes. Actually, Rae in particular gave substantially more information than you did in her post. This hearkens to what I mentioned earlier about bandwagons, if we don't have differing opinions, it is way too easy for the eliminators to run away with the discussion. You follow that up by mentioning a possible conspiracy, which again isn't helpful. In my experience, being an elim is about balancing using your extra info and communication against creating patterns for people to follow. The sort of plan you suggest goes far beyond that, and while Aralis found it somewhat ludicrous, that sort of post can only serve to discredit the seeker, which is an elim thing to do. That is why I voted for you there at first, I just didn't have the time to say so. In the night, you suggest that people lurch Arinian, which was pointless and was also followed by Arinian not even getting targeted. Next day, you join a bandwagon against HH because he joined a bandwagon. During the night you ask to be scanned, which is once again pointless. That pretty much sums up everything, and Aralis thinks it's enough to kill over.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Aralis paused when he saw a finger point his way. Why in all this ash covered world would you suspect the fellow that doesn't believe in Koloss (rightly so) of assisting in their invasion? Aralis must have hit the man on the head one too many times. "Hey, Cassius! Yeah, I saw you pointing at me there! What's that you say? I didn't understand why people would soothe me? Well, I'll tell you, when you get old, your emotions settle into place a bit. That's why I'm an old grouch, and why you young fellows have been so volatile since the arrival of that crazy man that started this who nonsense. Anyone that tried soothing me should know that I'm set in my way of thought, and nothing is going to change that. So go point your finger at somebody else, like that Fuzzy fellow." In all honesty, not coloring my vote is a very legitimate mistake for me to make, since I write my posts first, and then go back and color things. Otherwise, I have to change color to red, and then back to black again. This way, I just have to change it once. So when I looked at the tally, I didn't have enough time to go back to check and just assumed that I'd goofed.
  15. Araris Valerian
    Well, Rae is kind of confirmed to be good by Arinian, right? So we should all be able trust her 100%. I guess it makes sense that there isn't anyone not hard confirmed that you do trust.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Jondesu, there are probably more elims than that. In my experience, GMs use either the square root or ~20% of the total players for the elim team, so there are probably at least 4 left. Also, I don't quite like your system of classifying activity, since it doesn't distinguish between post count and post quality. I am a full time college student, and this game has been during a particularly busy part of my schedule (I have mentioned that several times, actually). My goal was to try and post twice during each day, and night cycles are slow, so I haven't really been bothering to be involved during them. I've mostly kept up with that, and am fairly happy with my own level of activity. I am am on break this week, so I'll be a bit more present in discussion, but my normal activity levels aren't much higher than what they have been in this game.
  17. Araris Valerian
    Well bother, I forgot to actually color my vote...
  18. Araris Valerian
    I'll also vote on Assassin, for the same reasons that I've had the last 2 cycles. Based on the current activity level of this game, it doesn't look like the lynch is going to move off of Drake, but if people do show up before turnover, at least there will be another viable lynch option. Aralis couldn't help but grin. It seemed that half the town was really sleepy today. Well, he could help with that. Hardly anyone could resist a good nap after being introduced to his walking stick, and it might make a few of the townsfolk pay more attention the next day. I have an alternate proposal. There are something like 10 votes placed right now, out of over twenty players still alive. At this rate, a couple more villager deaths will cause us to lose the game, if none of the eliminators are inactive. So I think it would be well worth a lynch to kill an inactive player and try and get people back in this game. Anyone want to kill @Magestar? Or have any alternatives?
  19. Araris Valerian
    My thoughts: Rae is probably village. I was fairly sure she was an eliminator, but it was also pretty clear to me that she and Nyali were not working together, based on the Day 1 discussion. So I probably just started tunneling. I agree with the general idea behind the votes on HH, but I don't think we should necessarily lynch him (based on what he has said today). @Hemalurgic_Headshot, @Drake Marshall, consider the implications if every player took your approach to the game, and only voted for a player with votes already on them. Assuming everyone did that, nobody would get lynched at all. And the first person to break away from that mindset would control the lynch entirely. Now, we aren't at such an extreme case, but I think we should consider the impact our actions have if other people start to follow our example. Assassin. I think it is kind of silly to express suspicion of somebody for not getting killed. I mean, that sort of thought process leads to lynching all of the experienced players and power roles. Take Wilson. Why hasn't she been killed? Especially since the eliminators (almost certainly) have demonstrated that they want her dead? Also, a few people talked about lynching Arinian to confirm all of his scans. So why would they waste a kill on somebody we are going to lynch anyway? You also kind of jumped on a bandwagon against another player whom you claim was bandwagoning. Seems a bit hypocritical to old Aralis. In addition to that, I found yu suspicious enough yesterday to place a vote on you. So I'll trust what I was thinking about back then, and let that stand with all the above. Aralis sat in his chair, half-listening to the ruckus coming from the town. The whole thing was getting old rather fast. Sure, he was an old grouch of a man that didn't much like anybody, and he wasn't afraid to get things done, but seven people were already dead, and no imaginary Koloss were doing the killing. All it took was one half-dead man to set the entire town at each others throats. Maybe if he hit enough of them on the head... but no. The younger ones, even when he caught them by surprise, were just too fast.
  20. Araris Valerian
    I'm gonna vote on Assassin. I don't trust Arinian (or anyone else), and I will wait to see more on him before I vote on him or the people he has claimed about. Considering the lack of PMs, I do consider it a point in Arinian's favor that he knew Bugsy's role. I do object, regardless of the circumstances, to revealing Wonko's role. Especially considering that Wonko's ability, if he is village, will now be useless. I'm going to back off a bit on Rae, since I think I've been tunneling a bit. I had a hard time looking at a broad range of players due to how busy I was, and figured I would stick to my guns. However, if it turns out that Arinian is lying, I will be the first to vote for her. Aralis stared at Fuzzy. After Aralis had just tried to kill somebody for blowing things out of proportion, here was another person doing it again. Aralis wasn't sure if the man's faith in this "Ja" fellow was more or less insane that believing on Koloss. Nobody should worship a man for dying, which to the best of Aralis's knowledge, was mostly what "the Ja" had done. He was probably the sort of fellow that would earn a quick thump on the head for talking nonsense, like so many of the villagers here deserved. Dying and coming back, like the Survivor, now that was a thing you could worship, if you didn't know the truth of the matter. But dying and staying dead, well, even Aralis could do that, he supposed. Probably would do it, as a matter of fact, the way things were going around Tyrian Falls. Well, one couldn't be elderly forever, and what better time to die then when everyone around you has turned against each other?
  21. Araris Valerian
    Sorry, I'm barely keeping up with the current LG right now... I kinda gave up on non-LG games that aren't Alera based due to time constraints.
  22. Araris Valerian
    @Elenion, we actually only need ~4 mistborn for that, since there are 2 vote manip powers.
  23. Araris Valerian
    Okay, I didn't get around to contributing last cycle, but all I really would have had time for was to place a vote, and it would have gone on Rae, who I had voiced my suspicion of several times before. I suppose it isn't too big of a deal that I didn't get that vote in, since Rae was lynched anyways. If all the spiked are mistborn, and there were at least 5 of them from the start, then we should have had Tin more cycles than we have. And that assumes no village mistborn. Each mistborn will have had around a 50% chance to pull Tin by now. So it is unlikely that there are more than 3-4 total mistborn in the game.
  24. Araris Valerian
    Sounds okay to me! I know I mentioned I would do some more analysis, but the COMAP MCM contest is this weekend, so I don't know how much time I'll have. I'll commit now to posting my top 5 suspicions during the day cycle, so go ahead and start voting for me if I don't get that much done.
  25. Araris Valerian
    Haha, great writeup! Reginald has finally paid for desecrating Aralis's brandy!
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