Araris Valerian
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Everything posted by Araris Valerian
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@Orlok Tsubodai Is there a particular reason you didn't call on me to vote? I don't have too much to say just now, life is kinda busy, but I'm a little less confident than you are that Lemon is an elim. However, I'll do my best to go back and look at his posts to see how justified my relative lack of suspicion is.
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I'm not sure it matters, but I'll vote on Rae and hopefully get back on later to talk about the remaining elims. I hadn't really considered the fact that Rae could be a Thug, so if that's the case what I said about Orlok being village would be slightly less true since he wouldn't have cost his team a conversion. But there isn't too much point in worrying about that until we see what role Rae has.
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I guess I'd like to make a comment about my "not participating in successful lynches," particularly last cycle. It seemed like there were two candidates up for the lynch; Lemon and Rae. Now, normally if there are two people up the the lynch, you vote for the one you suspect the most. However, I'm pretty sure that most of us were pretty suspicious of Rae, but voted elsewhere to get more information (I was somewhat confused with that reasoning but went along anyway). I decided that I didn't agree that Lemon was an elim, and voted elsewhere (on you to be precise). Now, I think the lynch last cycle gives us some important information, because Rae still had a bead of Atium left (or possibly multiple?). That means that we basically got 2 elims in 1 for that lynch, because we can kill Rae again. This leads me to think that Orlok is village. As an elim, if he got another villager lynched, then during the night the elims could convert and likely have a team of 5 with 2 soothes. With a mislynch and a kill that would put the score at 5 elims, 11 village, 8 of which would have to be active to stop the game from ending. We have something like 5 players that are totally inactive, so that would be the end. Beyond that, I'm getting a bit of an elim read on Aonar for trying to leave the Lemon lynch as a possibility. Even if Lemon and Rae are a team, lynching Lemon first means that someone else can be converted that the village would have no accurate reads on.
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Okay, It seems like there is some agreement that Rae is an eliminator. However, there also seems to be some reasoning not to lynch her. I'm fairly sure that Orlok is a villager. I think I even posted something defending his activity level earlier in the game. That makes me suspicious of both Lemon and Arinian for voting on him. However, I doubt that the elims would be voting as a team in a situation like this, which leads me to believe that Arinian and Lemon are not both eliminators. Of the two, I have definitely gotten more of an eliminator read from Arinian, although this is partly due to Lemon being relatively newer to SE and thus some of his less helpful actions can be justified by that.
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Hey, sorry I wan't around much last cycle. My vote is going on Rae for now. I've been suspicious of her for a while but hesitant to vote on her because she was working to keep the game alive. I think her vote/Soothing on Wilson last cycle was beyond what a villager would honestly do though. I agree that for all intents and purposes Wilson appeared to be out of the game (although I hoped that wasn't the case), but that doesn't justify trying to actually kill her.
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I'm going to vote on PK. He's been lurking, but while he was active I found him to be suspicious. We can be fairly sure that he isn't the Seer, but now there are likely 4 non-Seer eliminators. As for all these votes on Rae, I agree with the suspicion, but I really don't want to lynch one of the most active players among us right now. I mean, her posts make up 1/3 of the discussion we've had today.
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@little wilson Well, I'm sad to see you go. I hope all sources of your frustration are slain as surely as the Skaa behind this infiltration. Or Waern, depending on my alignment
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I'll let Wilson defend herself, but I will say that being instrumental in lynches is probably a good thing at this point given our activity level. I mean, it's somewhat rare to catch an elim within 3 cycles. @Darkness_, NAI stands for Not Alignment Indicative (apologies if you knew this already). So I'm not quite sure what you are saying. NAI isn't an alignment that someone can predict or have. I'll be back later to do some analysis and vote.
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I had a similar thought PK, and likewise realized it would be pointless to share with the thread. Honestly though, I don't see many of the players around here going for that sort of strategy. The best part (for me at least) of being an eliminator is scheming together, and being worried about working together too much, and all that sort of stuff. It would be rather boring to sit around killing people until you lost a life, and then to convert 2 people and die and hope they can pull things off for you. There is also a major flaw in that plan, notably coinshots. Given 4 beads of Atium, the Seer would lose 1 to a lynch, and then convert during the night. If they got hit by a Coinshot and then lynched a second time, that's all 4 beads gone with only 1 conversion.
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I personally think that Orlok's activity is NAI, as it is due to real life stuff. However, he has committed to coming back, unlike other inactives. I don't think anyone has really brought a valid accusation against Orlok that isn't answered by his blue text. As I mentioned earlier, Jondesu is at the top of my suspicion list, and I'd prefer that he not cause a tie by voting on Orlok.
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The Assuredness Movement comes from the Way of Kings, it's a rhetorical strategy of severely overstating all of your arguments, and it really frustrates Shallan.
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That's why I said I don't want to lynch Straw. His playstyle is NAI. But my logic is, if everyone did this, what would happen? I mean, usually you can get rid of a poke vote just by posting. The pressure of a poke vote is really fake, because it carries no threat of a lynch; there is no argument to convince others to join in the vote. There is also no conviction behind it, since as an elim, I could poke vote my partner without fear of leading to their lynch. As far as my vote on Darian, I was taking a page from the Assuredness Movement, while also avoiding being hypocritical about poke votes (although I think what I posted is what is somewhat implied by a lot of poke votes). While inactivity is NAI for new players, it is also definitely a better winning strategy for eliminators than villagers. I don't think new players understand that by withholding their opinions, or withholding from making any opinions at all, they are siding with the eliminators regardless of their actual alignment. Take this cycle for example. Out of 21 living players, 14 posted, and of those Darian, Doc, and Striker probably only posted because they were pinged. So there are really only 11 active players. Now, consider that there will probably be 5 eliminators after this Night cycle (based off both the square root rule and the 20% rule). If they are all active, then the game is almost over, and that isn't even taking into consideration what roles they might have. Actually, a mislynch this cycle, and a kill+conversion during the Night puts the active players at a 4-5 deficit. So I think my errorgance is somewhat justified given that I would prefer not to lose this game 5 cycles in.
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Darian, thanks for the reply. @Straw Maybe I'm remembering past games wrong, but frequently you have single line posts with a vote and little justification. You don't really give anyone anything to work with you. It would be easy to hide as an eliminator behind that little information, so I often find myself voting for you, since compared to the other players that aren't giving me anything to work with, you are posting, so I can justify lynching you. But because it is simply your playstyle to not justify yourself much, you inevitably get lynched and flip villager. So far this game you have given me that same impression, which makes me want to lynch you but also is pretty confident that you are village. However, since you have only been an elim 2 out of 27 games, I can't trust a village read of you, hence the request for a coinshot.
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Okay, so I'm going to assume that we have 3 conversions, and that each convert was active at least up to the point where they were converted. That means that there are a lot of options for the C1 conversion, but I doubt that PK or Frozen Mint were converted that cycle, since they drew some decent attention to themselves by lynching Aman. I also doubt that PK is the Seer for the same reason, which makes me trust Wilson a bit more about PK having been scanned. Rae's immediate attack of Mint seems forced to me. I think that from the POV of an elim, whether or not we have a D1 lynch is relatively unimportant most of the time, so it doesn't make sense for the lonely Seer to risk drawing attention to themselves that early. PK mentions that Jondesu didn't want a C1 lynch, but had an opportunity to tie and didn't. This fits with my idea of an elim that doesn't care to draw attention to themselves while still trying to participate in discussion. PK could have been the N2 conversion though. I don't like how @Straw has been playing, but that isn't really alignment indicative for him. Maybe a Coinshot could deal with him so we don't burn a lynch? So Jondesu, Rae, and PK are my top 3 suspicions right now, in that order. If they were on a team I would guess Jon is the Seer, Rae the N1 convert, and PK the N2 convert. I'm not sure who was converted last night, but that's to be expected. I also somewhat agree with DA's vote on Squeeves. However, all that stuff has been brought up already, and we can come back to it later. I'm more concerned that the Seer has gone really inactive in the thread and is relying on active converted players to carry the team. On that note, @DarianHammersmith I think you are the Seer since you have given us nothing to read you on. By not posting suspicions, however flaky they may be, you have flown under the radar and put yourself in a very safe place. So, convince me that you are not the Seer. Who would be a better lynch option than you, Darian?
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@little wilson I am not reading you as an elim right now, based on the games I have played with you so far. Although you are very crafty, and I wouldn't put it beyond you to be fooling us all :D. School is a thing for me right now, so I'll post some actual content and maybe try my luck at some RP later.
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I would hope that I've been in docs with you enough to get a decent read on you, Wilson.
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Well, as I count it there is a 3-3 vote tie between PK and Sart, and since PK is presumably not the Seer, I'll withdraw from him and vote for Sart instead. @Lemonelon, that sort of vote isn't really helpful to anybody for a couple of reasons. It doesn't generate discussion, it is a vote on someone that has a lesser chance of being an elim than other players, and if everyone followed a similar philosophy then we we get stuck in a tie vote every cycle.
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You mean scanned as not the Seer? There are 0-2 non-Seer eliminators at this point, and the Seeker role only checks for Role, not for alignment.
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Of the players that I have any sort of feel for, I'd probably lean slight village on Sart and slight elim on PK. Especially with PK's vote on Lemon, which I see as overly aggressive. I'd also say that during the Night, any coinshots should start picking off inactive by now. It's Day 3, so people have had over 144 hours to get their act together, and not everybody that's been inactive has given a reason in the thread.
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Steeldancer. If I was the Seer, I would probably convert someone that I enjoy working with. I'm not going to list those off in case I get to be the elim in a conversion game in the near future, but I do think it's a mistake to think that there is a single player that any Seer would want to convert. The first convert lets you have discussion, so the first convert should be someone you are comfortable scheming with. @Straw, you've posted, but didn't actually give any of your opinions. Who would you want to lynch? I'm going to put my vote on Sart for now. I'm not really sure that there was any point in bringing up the thing about Orlok. Neither Wyrm nor Orlok would give a response to your questions that would break the game. So it seems more like a way to look like you are chasing after people and generating discussion without actually being helpful. Said questions probably would have been better to deal with in PMs.
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@Paranoid King You mention that most players voted for no lynch, but only list 11/25, which isn't over half. I'm going to vote on Steeldancer. I appreciate the RP, but I'd prefer if we could get down to the business of killing people.
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There isn't really much to say. For future reference, I don't consider it necessary to post during night cycles, as compared to days. I mean, half the "discussion" tonight has been about Joe's mug. I was fairly confident that Aman was village but also agree that his plan wasn't super helpful. Now we don't have to waste a lynch D3 on him or worry that the elims will get a list of roles from him, so I'm content with the outcome. Edit: For some reason my posts always like to land on a new page...
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Not really.
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I'm going to echo what Orlok said; players becoming information hubs doesn't seem like a great plan for the village. In particular, with multiple players offering to make such trades, it would be somewhat easy for the Seer to pick one and get lots of free info. I think that if we really have to role swap, people could wait until some conversions have happened. My personal opinion is to never give up my role unless I need to in order to have a chance at winning, or if the person I'm telling is confirmed good (like if I lurch someone, they get attacked, and didn't know beforehand about my protection). This isn't either of those situations. I'm going to vote on Joe for supporting the information trade.
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Yes! A game with not complicated roles! And GMed by Wyrm to boot. I'll sign up as Hadrian Penrod.
