Araris Valerian

That’s my point. I think the best explanation of the events last night is that no elim kill was sent in. The best explanation of that is a bunch of elims that were gone, like you. For now, I’ll vote on Vapor. I’d like to fine Burnt at least one cycle to catch up before lynching her, and I haven’t picked up on anything to distinguish between Vapor and Wind at this point. That’s complicated. As an elim, you want to kill trusted villagers, kill power roles, and deny information. Actually deciding which of those three goals to prioritize would come down to what is happening in the thread. This game has the added complication of the Hemalurgists, but that’s the general idea. You could read some of the elim docs that I have been in to get a better idea of my thought process. Most recently were LG 67, MR 40, and LG 57. The MR was a loss for me, the other two were wins.

I’m assuming Mist is HI, and independent of that she is a poor night kill target. Someone like myself, you, Whysper, or Condensation (a Hemalurgist) would be far better than someone who isn’t voting at all. Of course, the elims clearly don’t prioritize their kills the same as me, but I think my point is somewhat valid regardless.

My bad. Both you and Silber posted during the night turn. That leaves Vapor, Wind, and Burnt out of the players that have been least active.

Elims are probably inexperienced and/or inactive. They apparently didn’t send in a kill last cycle (this depends on Danex being village), killed Aman when he was inactive and also not really cleared, and failed to kill TJ despite him having a vote manipulation role that makes him extremely powerful. This means you are kind of suspect, along with Vapor, Condensation, Silber, and Wind. I think everyone else was around during the night, although I need to check. It wouldn’t take a dramatic change in activity for an already inactive elim team to miss sending in the kill. You just need someone to say they have the kill covered and then to forget to send in the order because they didn’t actually go on the Shard all day. I also think that elim!Danex would have killed you. He had already set himself up to do it in the thread, and it would be more convincing that he had done it than an attack on Mist. Another thing, why would the elims attack Mist? I admit that I was starting to think that Whysper might be the HI. She feels like she has been holding back a bit this game. But since it seems likely that Mist is the HI now, Whysper is probably just plain village.

If there is a village Awakener, this only works if the elims also targeted Mist. Do you realize you just voted for yourself? And yeah. Village!Mist would almost certainly claim Voidbringer, so Mist is likely the HI.

Elims have a doc to conspire in about who they kill, but the kill would be sent as an action (just like a Mistborn kill, but unlimited).

No. But if the Awakener targeted the elim that used the kill action, that would stop the kill.

So I guess the remaining question is whether anyone is an Awakener that used their action. Because it's possible someone was roleblocked, and that would basically guarantee us an elim lynch.

Good point. The rules don’t say anything about an Elantrian not being able to self-protect. @Straw, could you clarify this?

I think there are 3 ways Mist could have survived. Protection from an Elantrian, being a Voidbringer, or being the HI. I don’t see any reason for a village Elantrian to protect Mist, so there’s not a bad chance that Mist is elim/HI. Assuming you are telling the truth about sending in the kill, and that it wasn’t the elims that did it, it might be worth it to lynch Mist. I’m not sure whether it is more likely that you are lying about your action, or that the elims didn’t send in a kill. I guess I’d lean toward the latter, since the elim team behavior so far seems to have been kind of sub-optimal, and they could all be inactive at this point.

Um. @Danex, did you attack Mist? Because only one attack seems to have occurred, and if you attacked Mist, that means that either the elims are really inactive, or someone sent in a roleblock. Or I suppose Mist could have been attacked and protected twice (or be the HI, which is a possibility regardless).

I'm going to be offline for the rest of the cycle, but I'm happy with where my vote is now. Just don't count on me if anything suddenly comes up.

So I’d be willing to lynch Danex this cycle. I have the same feeling as TJ; some of the stuff Danex has been saying feels like misguided villager. However, I don’t believe the Mistborn claim, and it’s possible that the elims think they can pull off a win by lynching TJ this cycle. Danex also fits the profile of a team that might have killed Aman, and would have left TJ alive to try and lynch him this cycle. I would also like to note that Supreme was able to convince Illwei that he was village, which has caused me to back off on my suspicion of him. However, the vote on TJ really doesn’t look good, especially since you didn’t provide any reasoning. So I agree with TJ that I’d like to hear from Supreme more. I’d also like to hear from @Whysper, who has posted but not yet voted this turn.

I agree. You should have more than 0 elim reads by this point.

There's a reason for my signature . It seems to be a "talent" I have (although I wish people would just read me as village and move on ). Also, the current count is likely 8/4/1 (village/elim/HI). TJ's vote counts triple effectively, so if he's elim, the votes stand at 8/6/1, and there is no way that all the villagers are voting on the same person (or even all voting, period, since the activity this game has been so awful). So if TJ is elim, I think we just lose already.

I was unclear. I threatened to vote for an inactive player, which I think prompted you to show up when you might not have otherwise. I have several reasons for thinking TJ is village. The first is that he is a Feruchemist (I don’t think this is disputable, since the real Feruchemist would claim if he wasn’t). This means he saved Turtle from the lynch, which there would be very little reason for an elim to do (elims want Hemalurgists dead, and the Condensation lynch attempt proves that a Turtle lynch wasn’t guaranteed the next day). I also think that an elim Feruchemist would unbalance the game, since it would make lynching the HI rather trivial for the elims, in the event of all village Hemalurgists dying. The second is that I am pretty suspicious of Books, and Books and TJ are almost certainly not both elims, since TJ caused Books to be the counter-wagon to the Ash lynch. I would also agree with Whysper that the Aman kill doesn’t fit the profile of an elim team with TJ on it. Probably the only thing I have against TJ is that he was on the wrong side of the Ash lynch, but if Books is elim then that doesn’t matter Because new players on the village team often go inactive, more so than new elims (the doc helps keep new players engaged with the game). Or at least that was my read a couple of cycles back. Now, I’m much less sure, since I think most/all of the players who were active in recent cycles are village. There certainly aren’t enough highly active players for them to all be elims.

Okay, I still haven't had time to go back and read stuff, but there is basically no scenario in which TJ is an elim. I am very suspicious of Experience for popping up and voting for the person I am most confident in the alignment of, especially after threatening to vote for an inactive player.

Here's a short parody of a section in Mistborn: "Your first lesson," Kelsier said, strolling down the street, Vin trailing along beside him, "isn't about Allomancy, but attitude." He swept his hand forward. "This, Vin. This is ours. The day, the lynch - they belong to us. Most sharders avoid voting as if it were death. Some RPers talk during the day, but they fear it nonetheless. Admins feign nonchalance, but the lynch makes them uncomfortable. He turned, regarding her. "The lynch is your friend, Vin. It hides you, it protects you...and it gives you power."

This seems like a rather convenient excuse. You had a list of your 4 greatest suspects during the night, but didn’t kill any of them. I need to put a bit more thought into my vote this cycle. Someone is active enough to be sending in kills, but I am not confident that any elims are even bothering to vote. I’ll be busy this evening and a lot of tomorrow, so don’t expect much from me until Saturday evening.

If you had to pick 4 remaining players (plus the HI if you have any guesses as to their identity) to make up the elim team, who would they be? Here's the list of living players with 10 or more games (nobody else has more than 2 according to the spreadsheet): Araris - 90 Elkanah - 32 Silber - 15 Experience - 13 TJ - 11 Mist - 10 Vapor - 10 Illwei - 10 You could probably add Whysper as well, since she's played on another site.

I think your Feruchemist claim makes sense, and that you are likely village (even disregarding the fact that I thought the Feruchemist was village for balance reasons prior to your reveal). I'm kind of suspicious of Mist for not voting last turn. Assuming TJ is the Feruchemist and is village, an elim would know that whoever they voted for would flip village. It's very possible that one of my reads on an inactive. Danex, if you are a village Mistborn, you might be best off killing someone that hasn't been engaging much with the thread, since it seems likely that most/all of the elims are hiding and letting us kill each other off.

@Mist, I see you watching the thread (unless you are AFK). Any thoughts?

I'm pretty sure this is against the rules. Also, the cycle is halfway over and we currently have a whopping 3 votes, out of 15 players. You'd think being in the middle of election season would spark the democratic spirit around here, but I guess not.

You're right, I was mixing up some things. Elkanah was the coinflip lynch. But my point that Elkanah has been busy stands. Not necessarily. If the lynch last cycle was e/e, then an elim!Feruchemist couldn't have saved anyone. I'd be willing to switch onto Danex depending on how other votes turn out. He doesn't fit quite as well with my other suspicions, but I would guess that one of Danex/Books is elim, and the Lotus+Danex team is definitely a possibility.

Okay, so we lynched an elim yesterday, and that makes me want to look at all the players who didn't participate. When we had a v/v lynch between Turtle and Reading, 14 players placed votes. When we have a e/? lynch between Ash and Books, only 8 votes are placed. That makes me want to look at everyone who didn't vote. First on the list is Experience. During the Turtle lynch, Experience voted on Turtle over Reading, which is what Ash (the only know elim) did as well. Experience didn't vote during D1, despite being poked by Supreme. The main content we have from Experience is a giant reads post linked here for reference. We have elim reads on Mist, Turtle, Elkanah, and sort of on Illwei. I guess the vote on Turtle is consistent with this post and comes from reads prior to the hemalurgist claim. For now I'll give Experience a slight village read, but @Experience, I'd like to hear more from you. The post following the lynch seems a little off to me, considering that Exp didn't actually participate. Next up is Condensation. Similar behavior to Experience during the Turtle lynch. Escaped the lynch last cycle by claiming hemalurgist, which I think Illwei confirmed? I'm having a hard time keeping all the roleclaims straight. I was suspicious of Condensation during C4. However, the Hemalurgist claim seems like it would pretty clearly lead to pressure on Ash, so I'm not sure that elim!Condensation would do that. It would depend on how much she was communicating in the elim doc, but this doesn't seem like a super wise play. So I'll hesitantly give Condensation a village read as well, although again, @Condensation I'd like to hear more, particularly thoughts on the lynch last cycle. Then we have Elkanah. lkanah nearly died D1, saved by a Feruchemist, who Whysper thinks is village. Elandera tried to revisit the lynch D2, and was lynched instead. I'm going to give him a lot of slack for the QF. Still, that's over now, so I'd like to hear more. For now I'll stick with my village read. Mist also didn't vote last cycle. However, Mist could reasonably have died C1. The initial opposing lynch on Elkanah was lead by myself, Aman, Whypser, and for a little while, Illwei, all players I read as village (plus Aman). I'd expect at least one elim vote on a counter-wagon to an elim train during D1. So that makes me think that Mist is village, at least initially. Mist also didn't vote in the Turtle lynch, so not voting last cycle isn't as remarkable. I also agree with Mist's most recent post, which reads Condensation as village and voices some suspicion of inactives. Yet again, @Mist, please post more! We just killed our first elim, and you weren't along for the ride. Silber has been just barely skating past the inactivity filter this whole game. He hasn't really contributed anything helpful at all. Definitely an elim read, since this is what he did when we were elims together in LG 68. I could be convinced otherwise, and Silber isn't a high priority lynch, since he's not voting, but probably wouldn't be a bad Mistborn target. Could be the HI. Danex hasn't voted in any lynches. I disagree with most of the stuff Danex said last cycle, but can also sort of see where it came from. While you fit the new player profile a lot better than Silber does, you could also be taking advantage of it to skate by. I've got you as slight elim, but really just want to see some lynch participation. Vapor sort of doesn't belong in this list. She actually has only voted during C4, but her vote was on Condensation, and it doesn't seem like she was around to see the shift onto Books/Ash. The lack of participation and votes makes me read village (not scheming and not really paying attention to the game), but that really isn't very helpful, since we probably can't count on Vapor to vote in a LyLo situation. Could also be the HI. Supreme has been on my elim list for a while, although Illwei trusts him due to a roleclaim. It doesn't take much thinking from there to guess what that role is, which makes me suspicious that he hasn't been night killed yet. He voted for Turtle during C3, and technically voted during the first two cycles, but wasn't really participating in those lynches. I want to be suspicious for the lack of participation last cycle, but he said it was due to IRL stuff. Still on my elim list. Last on this list is Wind, who I give the same read as Vapor. He didn't vote last cycle, but otherwise the profile is essentially the same. Basically a village player that probably won't contribute toward win conditions. Could also be the HI. Next up is thoughts on the Ash lynch itself. If all my above reads are correct, then there should probably be one elim and maybe the HI unaccounted for. Books, Lotus, and TJ are the ones I'm least confident in. If Books is elim, then TJ is probably village. No reason to wagon on Books when Danex was available. However, Lotus voted a bit later, and could have just voted as a bus if both candidates were elim anyway. Also the numbers add up nicely with my other reads. If Books is village, then I'd prioritize Lotus over TJ, since TJ has been more active. But Books has been pretty high on my suspicions list. That doesn't really fit with Danex as elim though. The only players I haven't really mentioned are Illwei and Whysper, but I think there is a reasonable consensus that they are both village. So my current elim team proposal is: Silber, Lotus, Supreme, Books, Ash. I think this group could fit the profile of killing Aman last night, especially with Ash missing. Voting for Lotus since I think regardless of the Books flip, Lotus doesn't look super great from the lynch last cycle. I'll also note that if the Feruchemist is elim, we've probably already lost, and if they are village and die, we also are at a serious risk of losing. The two village inactives really aren't helping here.